This Week in Underdogs!We're back in the NFL and we head west, young man, to find two surprise teams and one mediocre division.And then it's on to college football for our favorite underdog matchup of the week.
It's the Pits. The cry goes up both far and near for Underdog.Underdog.Countdown going on right now.Morrow, up to Schultz.Five seconds left in the game.Do you believe in miracle?Yes!By George, the dream is alive.Underdog.
And I guess there's only one thing left to do.Win the hole.
It's the Underdogs, back with you for another week.I'm Jordan Brenner, joined as always by Peter Keating.Peter, did you enjoy the sports equinox the other night with all four major sports in action?
It was one of those, is it the day of the year where you can, if you line up a hard-boiled egg, you can get it to stand on its end?Because all the four major leagues are playing on the same night?
Yeah, something like that.
Yeah. Yes, Jordan, I'm loving it.I'm loving it.I'm not loving it.My own teams are sucking eggs to continue the theme, but that's OK.It's OK.It's OK.We're deep into a lot of it.
All right.Well, a little bit later in the show, we're going to get into another big week in college football.
We've got the Penn State, Ohio State matchup, but also some underdog angles we want to hit and a conference comparison that we've been talking about that I think people really enjoy.But first, let's jump back into the NFL, Peter, and let's head west.
Since this is the underdogs, I want to talk about two teams that have surpassed expectations, at least in the minds of this. Show host and that's a the AFC West the Broncos are five and three Chargers are four and three.
I think on this show I Advocated for taking under the Broncos win total for the season man.Was I wrong?It just shows again don't bet against Sean Payton, but that speaks to a larger trend I think there's a lot of similarities between these teams.
They all almost feel like cousins and that is they are doing this with excellent coaching good defense and efficient offense that runs the football.So, you know, both these teams and real have realistic shots at the playoffs now.
Uh, not only that Jordan, neither one of them has been particularly lucky.
Sometimes you get these teams that bounce up and, you know, it's a little bit of smoke and mirrors, but if you look at Denver's schedule, you know, they lost to the Steelers by seven.
They lost the charges by seven, but they've had a couple of blowout wins.Uh, you look at the charges, they lost by two to Arizona by seven of the chiefs, a couple of blowout wins.
These teams actually have expected wind totals a little bit above where they are.So they are actually. They are actually what their record says they are.They're good.And they've gotten good surprisingly and quickly.
You know, I mean, I went on this show and said Denver could go 0 and 17.So in the race between you and me to the, you know, to, to underestimating these teams, I think I may even have you beat.Yes.But they're both, they're both actually really good.
It's hard to go 0-17 when you're playing defense like these two teams, first of all.The Chargers, first in the NFL, allowing 13 points per game.The Broncos are third, allowing 15 points per game.
It's going to be really interesting to watch them against each other, watch them against Kansas City.But good defense isn't generally a fluke, as you said. It's a little bit of old school football.The Chargers have rediscovered J.K.Dobbins.
Javante Williams for the Broncos looks healthier after a year later recovered from his devastating knee injuries.And then we should also talk about the quarterbacks.We knew Justin Herbert.They both have an Oregon quarterback.Justin Herbert, we knew.
Yeah, man, Bo Nix is is really starting to come around as a rookie.
All right.All right.Let's let's let's let's focus on what's really, really good.Denver's defense has added an expected sixty nine points to the team this year.That is by far the best in the league.It's an astonishing number.
Look, Bo Nix is throwing for five, barely five yards per attempt.He's got eight touchdowns and five interceptions.He's looked better.Peyton's managed him well, but he is dinking and dunking.
while, while, while, while the Denver defense is, uh, blitzing and I, what rhymes with blitzing blitz, blitz, blitz, blitzing, blitzing.I mean, there's, there's second in the league and blitz rate.
And, and sometimes that means they're just aggressive, but no, in this case, they're fourth in league and pressure a second in the league and sacks.I mean, they're getting results from pressuring opposing quarterbacks.This is where the key is.
can i push back on you just for a moment that i get it bonus is not out there from the ball at patrick my homes but he just came off a twenty eight of thirty seven two hundred eighty four yard passing performance he's also running very well in most games and and the broncos
These are their point totals the last four games.OK, they scored 34 on the Raiders.They scored 16 on the Chargers.But by the way, that's more than they're giving up on average.33 on the Saints and 28 on the Panthers.
Not great opponents other than the Chargers.
No, not great opponents.Jordan, the Broncos are 27th in expected points added per play in the passing game.27th.They're OK, but I think if you're focusing on the quarterback and even the coaching a little,
overlooks that they are outstanding on special teams as well.They are outstanding in punt and kickoff coverage.Will Lutz hasn't missed a field goal.
This is the way they rebuild quickly, not by drafting Bo Nix, but by investing in cheap, but really efficient, high leverage players in special teams and defense.I mean, I'm just, I'm just saying that's just what the numbers are.
I'm just saying they may have found a quarterback and as he gets more comfortable, he may be more of a reason for them to win games rather than just manage games.
Meanwhile, we know, by the way, whoever thought we'd be saying the same thing about Riley Dixon.
And, and look, we know, we know the chargers have a quarterback who can win them games that, that is why their rebuild such as it is, is fascinating to me compared to ones you usually see, because they made this change with a young franchise quarterback still in place now.
They gutted the rest of the offense, right?But it's like, you've got this house with this incredible foundation, and they're just reupholstering everything.And he is there.He is capable of so much more.
He's had to go to more of a manager role at times this year because they've been so focused on running the ball.
But you can also see as Ladd-McConkie develops more, and a big touchdown last week, and as they grow into this new regime, I'm sure they will eventually open it up more because he's capable of that.
yes and and look first of all he hasn't made many mistakes at all his one interception all season long and i know his passing attempt to do it but one interception the team has six interceptions ten fumble recoveries it's team defense has been astounding uh... i just wanna note though that there are teams that have stopped uh... the chargers rushing attack when they played arizona you could see arizona three big interior linemen and to rush to get five guys on the line they essentially shut down
Uh, the chargers running game, Herbert's going to have to do more.I mean, the great news is that he's obviously up to it.
I mean, they, they conservative at the beginning of the year, we're actually going to get to see, um, especially with the chargers, they don't have to worry about bad weather, forcing them to be more conservative, right?
We're going to see them open it up.And Herbert is going to be, I think the key factor in determining which one of these two teams goes further as the year goes on.
Well, you mentioned the Cardinals.So let's stay in the West.Every year there's one funny division.Last year, last week we talked about the dominant division of the NFC North, right?Where everybody was over 500.
Well, here's a division where everybody's exactly 500, except for the Rams, who are half a game below 500.That's right.The 49ers, Seahawks, Cardinals, all four and four.The Rams are three and four.
Look, obviously we all thought and maybe think that the 49ers are the class of this division, but they're so banged up How do you make sense of what's going on in this?
Well, you know, what's even wilder is that because of tiebreakers, if the season ended right now, Tampa Bay would be in the playoffs and all those teams would not, except whoever wins the division.So they're actually in some danger.
I mean, unless one of these teams breaks out and wins the division, they're in danger of winding up in that. eight to nine, eight, nine to 10, seven muck where they could lose out on the playoffs entirely.
I think it's still San Francisco's division to lose just because as the annoying guy who used to win my fantasy league would say, when I said I couldn't decide which running back to play, he'd always say, the problem is you have too much talent.
They actually do have too much talent.
The talent- Not healthy talent, Peter, not healthy talent.And life is not gonna get any much easier for they have a bye coming up.
They're gonna have to win the net the two games after that at Tampa and home against Seattle because then they go to Green Bay and To the bills after that if they you know if they those could easily be losses and that even if they win the Bucks Seahawks games they could be six and six and looking at you know needing a really strong finish So I I don't know man.
How many how many key players can you lose?Before you start to work
That's the, that's the thematic question of the Niners season.We're getting to the point in the season where you can now circle incredibly crucial games coming up, right?
Niners Seattle and Niners Green Bay are going to be two of the biggest games in the whole regular season coming up after their bye.You're right about that.
If, okay.I think we both would put money on the Niners to win the division still in spite of all that we're saying, uh, which of the three other teams has the best chance to upset them in your mind?
I think Arizona has really intriguing upside and it's just starting to hit it.They're a crazy, almost random team, but, um, but, but Murray's looking pretty good and he's really good at his best.And, uh, and Marvin Harris is looking great.
And I think they're going to be able to keep putting points up on the board.
i'm gonna say don't sleep on the rams uh... they've got their receivers back obviously matthew stafford's excellent quarterback and they're well coached team i hate their defense earlier in the year but they just in the look they just won a twenty fifteen game against the raiders holding a team any team below twenty with that defense was an accomplishment and their win against the vikings thirty to twenty against a uh... an offense that look like they were just gonna tear them apart in the first half that shows that big game at seattle this week
uh... then home against the dolphins at the patriots home against the eagles at the saints they can get this one on the road they can make some hay there
Yeah, their schedule, their schedules, their schedules pretty good.I was going to say I was going to be a smart ass and say whoever has the most games against the NFC East is the favorite to win.
But I don't know that many of them have a lot of games, but the Rams, the Rams schedule looks looks gauntlet a ball, doesn't it?
Well, and the Seahawks already lost at home to the Giants.So I think that's disqualifying, right?
Strip their medals from the podium.
Seriously.So I look. I guess the bigger question is this.Okay.We, I think we, we did pick the Niners under what was 11 and a half or 12 and a half.
Yeah.Because it's hard to win 12 games every year is our basic reason.And they had great injury luck until this year.
Yeah.So I guess at sitting at four and four. if I gave you over under, will they win 10?Will they win more than 10 games at this point?I think they're going to seven and two or something.
I think they're a good candidate to win 10 games.I tried to count it out this morning.I think 10 is where they're going to end up assuming, you know, they play well with the guys they have left.Got it.
Well, Peter shifting from the underdog division to That's right.It's time for our underdog of the week, sponsored by our partners at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new customers can bet just $5 and get 200 in bonus bets instantly.
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You can still join us for all the fun with DraftKings Daily Fantasy and have the shot to win cash prizes.So, Peter, I want to go back to the future with a little trend that we've identified all season and has been very kind to us.
In the NFL this year, dogs of six or more points are 21, 10, and two against the spread.That's 67.7%, a return on investment of 27.7% thanks to the amazing tools of BetLabs at the Action Network.
And Peter, we've got a six pack of teams that fit the bill this week.Okay.So let's run, let's run through those games.Then we can talk about what we can do with that.
You got the Broncos who we just talked about getting nine points at Baltimore, get the Jaguars going to Philly, getting seven and a half on the road.Dolphins getting six and a half points at Buffalo.The Colts are getting six at Minnesota.
The Raiders are getting seven and a half at the Bengals and your Carolina Panthers are getting seven points against the New Orleans Saints.And before we go into other options, if I have to pick one of those games, I know you think I'm crazy.
I'm taking the Panthers at home, getting a touchdown against a Saints team that might have you at quarterback at this point.
Well, if they had me a quarterback, I still might be able to outperform Bryce Young.I think Carolina is so broken.Every time I try to look up statistics, you know, statistics are supposed to take a bell curve shape.
Jordan, they're distorting the curve.They're all the way down.They're worse than any team in the league by a huge margin.And it just makes them hard to You know, every team you mentioned is a favorite there.You can imagine in this year.
Blowing a big game.I mean, there's compression in this league.There's chaos, there's injuries, there's young players developing, which is inherently unpredictable.
There's no dominant, um, you know, there's no golden state warriors of the league this year.So it really is any given Sunday this year.
I'm not sure that doesn't, I'm, you know, I think you can still profit by, you know, picking up whatever defense is playing Carolina in your fantasy league every week. You know, because they're that bad.
Yeah, well, this New Orleans defense has looked pretty darn bad every week, too.And I'll say this.The Saints are still banged up.They march on.Latimer now has a hamstring injury.John Johnson left with a concussion.
So if I have to to back one of these teams, I'm getting the Panthers at home plus seven against a mediocre opponent.Fine.
That's fine.You know, mom used to say in a game with no quarterbacks, but the underdog, it's like a game in the middle of a hurricane.I mean, OK, fine.
So that's our underdog of the week.But real quick, look, we did a crazy money line parlay of these teams earlier in the year.And as we know, we we we were 4-0 heading into the last game.We hedged.
If you want to go nuts and do a money line parlay, you can get plus 243,709 odds at DraftKings by taking all six of these teams to win.I don't think you'll win, but for 10 bucks, that that might be fun.More realistically,
You can buy with the trend and blindly bet all six of these underdogs for, say, a four and two week and enjoy the profits.
Now, if people do the parlay and they win the first one or two games, can they contact you personally to figure out hedging strategies to make sure they end up ahead on the total?
Yes.My my contact info is is Peter Keating NJ on Twitter.Anyway, though, that's your underdog of the week. Ride it, go for just the Panthers if you want, parlay some of these if you want, or just bet all six underdogs and hope for a winning week.
And as we said, Underdogs of the Week was sponsored by DraftKings, an official partner of the NFL.Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now.New customers use my promo code UNDERDOGS and bet just $5 on any wager and get $200 in bonus bets instantly.
That's promo code UNDERDOGS only at DraftKings Sportsbook.And we'll be back with some college football right after this. We're back, and Peter, most of the college football world is focused on the big matchup of the week.
That's number four, Ohio State, going to number three, Penn State.But here at Underdogs, we like the underdog matchup of the week. and that is number 18 Pittsburgh traveling to number 20 SMU.Pitt remains undefeated, 7-0 overall, 3-0 in the ACC.
SMU also undefeated in the ACC at 4-0.Again, I don't know what they're doing in the ACC, but they're undefeated in that conference after squeaking out a win against Duke.
where Duke went for a two-point conversion over time and failed, so SMU won by one.SMU is seven and one overall.And Peter, this game has big implications for who can win that conference, as crazy as it sounds.
Big title implications.Let me remind you, Jordan, that in ESPN's overall college rankings, The SP plus rankings at the beginning of this year, uh, pit finished last year, 95th in the rankings.They went three and nine.
Nobody thought there was a breakout coming.Um, this team is now, I think my favorite, uh, my favorite underdog.
You know, this year I've been obsessed with the idea that conference realignment and NIL money is supposed to mean the rich get richer, but there's a corollary effect that when the very richest teams get too rich, they start shedding extra players.
Those players transfer to teams that can transform themselves.Eli Holstein came from Alabama to pit and um,
and and he's been amazing he is eight point nine four uh... uh... adjusted yards per attempt this year seventeen touchdowns against only five interceptions he's got four decent targets and a running back is averaging within six yards a carry and this team all of a sudden is seven to know they could lose all the rest of the games still make a bowl which would be a successful season compared to what happened last year and now
They're going on the road to SMU with a chance to, I mean, really get a leg up in the ACC.It is, it has been an amazing season for Narduzzi and company.
Well, I don't want to sell SMU short either.This team 7-1, and their one loss was 18-15 to an undefeated BYU team.Now, they haven't played the toughest schedule.Their best win was at Louisville by a touchdown a couple weeks ago.
Here's the interesting thing.The schedule doesn't get much tougher.So they have this Pittsburgh game we talked about.
Then to close out home against Boston college, sorry, they have a buy then home against Boston college at Virginia home against California.
So depending on what goes on with the rest of the ACC, if they went out, they're in the, they're in the conference title game.
Okay.But, but look, look last, last week, you're right.They came within a missed two point conversion of losing to Duke.Meanwhile, team, by the way.
Meanwhile, pit was playing Syracuse, another cool surprise team, but unfortunately my man, Kyle McCord through three pick six is one of the worst performances by a quarterback in many a moon, uh, pits defense last week outscored its opponent and its own offense.
Yes.I just think it's interesting, because I don't think when we were talking about college football playoff expansion, and when we were talking about just these conferences growing and growing and growing, we'd be talking about teams like these.
And we're going to get into more on this in a second when we talk about the Big Ten and the SEC.But because the conferences are so big, and because the schedules aren't balanced, it's creating teams
sort of the randomness within a year of who's good and who's not, it's creating opportunities for unlikely teams to make big runs without playing the big dogs.So again, SMU, no Miami, no Clemson, right?Right.That's, that's a big, big difference.
Uh, do you think because of everything you just mentioned, there's going to have to be a reckoning where people are just going to have to realize that some teams with one or two losses had better seasons or better teams overall than teams with one loss or zero losses, just because of the wild disparities in the schedules they're facing.
And I wonder if that's going to, um, have an effect on the. the conferences outside the big 10 and the sec, do you think there's going to be room for another team or two to sneak into the final 12 from teams outside the big two conferences?
Because some of these teams are going on really impressive runs.So how many, how many ACC teams do you think we're going to see in the, in the final 12?
Certainly, if Clemson and Miami keep winning, they're going to, you know, for all we're talking about with SMU and Pittsburgh, those two teams are also undefeated in the ACC and they're clearly sort of, you know, two power programs.
And if they keep winning, you know, if they play in the conference title game, one wins, one loses, I could see them both getting in.So, but you raise an interesting point inadvertently, which is this.
Most of my interesting points are inadvertent, Jordan.
Absolutely.So look at the, look at the big 10 and then look at the sec, the big 10, you've got three teams ranked in the top four, but, and then you have Indiana and Illinois also in the top 25.
But what's interesting is you still have three teams that are unbeaten in the conference.So even though you have so many good teams because of the vagaries and scheduling, the top ones haven't beaten each other up.
Wait a minute.That wasn't inadvertent.That was my point.You can, you can go undefeated.
Basically, because you don't have to play the best teams in the country, while another team in the same conference who might be the best team in the country might have a loss or two just because of their schedule, because you have these 18 team conferences all of a sudden.
What's super interesting is the SEC has a very similar situation in terms of strength at the top.The number two, six, and seven teams, and then LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama.
the only undefeated team in the conference is Texas A&M because they haven't played those teams.So Georgia and Texas and Alabama and Tennessee, they're all beating each other up.So to your either inadvertent or what's the opposite of inadvertent?
Intended, planned.I think that the college football playoff selection committee is going to have to be more and more like the college basketball committee.Yes.Where they're weighing
Look in the past, I just had to make a couple reasonably difficult decisions between.A fourth and fifth ranked team that might've had one loss or undefeated or whatever.Now you're gonna have to weigh a lot of metrics to compare a lot of teams.
It's not just going to be head to head comparisons.Um, so yes, I do think it'll resemble college basketball more in that way.
And, and, uh, in past years, they could also count on schedules to bail them out.And, you know, in, in the final reckoning, like there wouldn't be three undefeated teams within a big conference left standing, right.
It just wouldn't because of the way the schedules were.Uh, I don't think they can count on that anymore.You might have Indiana, you might have, you might have a team or two.That's not even in that very top select group, be undefeated.
And you have to weigh that against teams with one or two losses.It's going to be really interesting.
Right, so what happens in the Big Ten is interesting, right?So you've got this Penn State, Ohio State matchup.Obviously, if Ohio State wins and then Penn State has a loss on their docket, it introduces more chaos in that area.
But conversely, you could easily have a situation where Penn State then, if they win today, will probably run the table with the remaining matchups against Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland.
Either way, they sure look like they're not finishing with more than one loss, which I would think would get them in the playoff, right?But then you could have a situation where Oregon, Penn State, Indiana are all undefeated.
It would require Ohio State losing to both Indiana and Penn State.But yeah, working out that situation is crazy.
Uh, it is, it is, it is crazy.Now, do you think that that means, um, one team's going to, if it's one team's going to drop far enough for three ACC teams to crack the top 12, that would be an interesting over ACC or big 10 by men.
ACC is one of these big team, one of these big 10 teams going to drop far enough that, um, they drop out.
I, I, I have Ohio state, but no, I have a hard time not seeing three of those top four get in.So Oregon, Penn state, Ohio state, Indiana.And I would, you know, go with the chalk in the Oregon, Penn state, Ohio state.Maybe they can get four.
Is that crazy?If none of those teams has say more than one loss.
No, but I do wonder how chalky in the end the results will be despite all the chaos we're talking about right now, because it is hard to see those very best teams not making the final four, you know.Right.
And to your point, the SEC will continue to offer even more chaos because those teams are just going to keep beating each other.And you could have a bunch of two, maybe even a three loss team that's
better than an undefeated counterpart in another conference.
I will say people should enjoy this now.In the early years of free agency anywhere, like in the early years of baseball free agency, all kinds of teams threw all kinds of money at all kinds of players.And there was a lot of chaos.It took a while.
It takes a while before the vast differences in spending that are here now and are going to linger for many years to actually take effect in building programs.So the chaos we're having right now is kind of as good as it gets under this new system.
Sorry.Well, I'm going to sit back and enjoy it.I'm going to enjoy the games this weekend and all the chaos to come until then, by the way, pits pits plus seven and a half against SMU.
So even if you like SMU, I mean, it's a good underdog this week.I meant to say that.I mean, okay.
Well, Peter meant to say that.And on that note, we're saying goodbye.Goodbye, Peter.Goodbye, everyone.We'll see you next week.
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