Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. Hello, today is Sunday, November 10th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn.
Inflation is back in the spotlight this week, with the latest retail price numbers coming on Wednesday.
The October Consumer Price Index is expected to have risen 0.2% on the month, which could nudge up the annual rate to 2.5%, or keep it at 2.4% depending on the rounding.
The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is predicted to have risen 0.3%, with the annual rate still at 3.3%.
Wells Fargo economists say a number of upside risks remain in the near and medium term, including a pullback in labor supply, deglobalization's impact on import prices, the potential for worsening conflict in the Middle East, and still strong demand.
Many of the policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump on the campaign trail are likely to contribute to these pressures and extend the journey back to the Fed's target, if not lead to a reacceleration in price growth over the next year or so.
Society General Chief Economist Stephen Gallagher says, leading up to the September FONC meeting, Fed officials advocated for front-loading rate cuts with the goal of transitioning monetary policy from its mildly restricted position to a neutral stance.
The shift in policy position is driven by the desire to achieve inflation goals or instill confidence in reaching those goals soon.
However, the inflation data, particularly for core CPI, has been less convincing, and the robust economic indicators further raise doubts.
The strong and expected economic evidence suggests that maintaining a somewhat restricted monetary policy for an extended period may not be necessary," he added.
Financial markets will pull back in fully pricing in the Fed's guidance on the rate path, as outlined in the September dot plot.In the last FOMC dot plot, the median of the Fed projections for the end of 2025 was 3.25 to 3.5 percent.
and when released, markets were pricing in a 2.75% to 3.0% target range.However, the current market pricing stands at 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting the prevailing economic conditions.
Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that the FOMC would probably deliver fewer interest rate cuts than expected if the U.S.economy continued to show strength.
Keshkari, who is not a voting member of the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee, is the first central bank official to deliver public remarks after the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut this past week.
One of the pleasant surprises that we've had is that productivity seems to be higher in the U.S.economy over the last few years.
If that is sustained, and we're in a structurally more productive economy going forward, then that tells me we probably wouldn't end up cutting rates quite as far, Keshkari said.
On the earnings front, investors will get results from tech giants like Alibaba and JD.com looking for updates on the state of China's e-commerce and internet sectors amid evolving regulatory and economic pressures.
From the U.S., Disney, Cisco Systems, Home Depot, and Plug Power are on the docket. Other notable companies reporting this week include Shopify, Applied Materials, Sea Limited, and Spotify Technology.
For Disney, analysts will be looking for the impacts of Hurricane Helene in September and Hurricane Milton in October on Disney World in Orlando, as well as software attendance for Disneyland in California.
They will also be looking for hints on a new CEO who would take over in early 2026 before Bob Iger's contract expires at the end of that year.
Seeking Alpha Analyst Oliver Rodzianko argues that the company's content pipeline is on the right track creatively.To bolster return, he suggests that Disney could increase its dividend, potentially offering a yield of 3.5% or higher.
Also on the earnings calendar, Monday appropriately brings Monday.com along with Luminar Technologies, Cara Therapeutics, Life Sciences Group, Global Ship Lease, Live Nation, Grab Holdings, IAC, Ethereum, and Rockwell Medical.
On Tuesday, along with Shopify, C-Limited, Spotify, and Home Depot, Plug Power, Occidental Petroleum, AstraZeneca, Tyson Foods, Groupon, and Kava Group report results.
Cisco weighs in on Wednesday, as will Stratasys, Alcon, Vaxart, Paysafe, CyberArk Software, Sonos, and Hut8.On Thursday, Workhorse Group, Bilibili, Bluebird Bio, and NetEase join Disney, JD.com, and Applied Materials.
Alibaba will issue numbers on Friday.Wall Street will also be watching the slew of 13-F filings, where funds disclose their positions.Filings are due on Thursday.
Along with the usual big names like Warren Buffett, David Tepper, Dan Loeb, and Ray Dalio, traders will be looking to what NVIDIA is doing with its cash pile.
In the news this weekend, the Russian government is reportedly working on a plan under which oil behemoth Rosneft would take over fellow state-backed producer Gazprom Neft, a unit of Gazprom, and independently owned Lukoil.
The Wall Street Journal says the resulting entity would be the world's second biggest oil company after Saudi Arabia's Aramco. The combined giant would pump nearly three times the output of ExxonMobil, the largest U.S.oil producer.
And the crypto bulls continue to march on, with Bitcoin crossing $80,000 for the first time.Bitcoin climbed nearly 5% to a record $80,092 on Sunday.
According to analysts at Citi, through November 7th, Bitcoin ETFs have received $25.5 billion in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs have seen $420 million in net outflows.
For income investors, IBM goes ex-dividend on Tuesday with a payout date of December 10th, Visa goes ex-dividend the same day, paying out December 2nd, ExxonMobil and TJX go ex-dividend on Thursday, Exxon pays out on December 10th, and TJX on December 5th.
Companies forecast to increase their quarterly payouts include Motorola Solutions to $108 from $0.98, Nike to $0.40 from $0.37, and HP to $0.29 from $0.275.
And in the Wall Street Research Corner, Wells Fargo analysts have published their growth list.The stocks are benchmarked against the Russell Midcap Growth Index and picked for above-average growth potential.
Their goal is to find companies with favorable growth prospects, generating consistent profitability, and trading at a reasonable valuation. The companies have a market value of at least $1.5 billion and annual revenue of at least $500 million.
They also must have the ability to generate at least a 5% compound annual growth rate in Ford EPS over a multi-year period.Among the names are MEDA, Chipotle, Block, Illumina, Uber, NVIDIA, Ecolab, and SBC Communications.
Check out the full list in our story on Seeking Alpha.That's all for today's Wall Street Brunch.Look for links to stories in the show notes section.Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash WSB.
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