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This entire election very well might be decided in Wisconsin.Joining us now is Brett Galaszewski.Did I say that right?Galaszewski.All right, Brett.Sorry about that.Brett, what is going on in the great state of Wisconsin today?
Hey, Charlie, totally fine on that front.No, things are looking good.The weather appears to be holding off. here in Wisconsin.That was something we were really worried about at first.
When the forecast first came out last week, we were worried that this was going to be a big downpour kind of day.But the rain is holding off.The temps are in the mid 60s.So that's looking really good for people to to come out and wait at the polls.
We're seeing massive lines in areas where we need to rack the score up in plurality Republican areas.So so far, looking on the in-person front, things are looking promising.
So do you do you feel better on the ground than you did in 2020?
I feel way better on the ground than I did in 2020.I know you guys had Terry Dietrich here on the show last week, and he had mentioned that there was no, really no effective ground game when it came to early voting in 2020.
This was the first election cycle that we really honed in on it. And you're seeing the numbers, I mean, it's coming to fruition in front of our eyes.
I mean, in heavy Republican counties, you're seeing like Washington County, for instance, part of that Wow County, the Milwaukee suburbs, they're reporting a 98% mail-in return rate, which is just crazy in comparison to, say, a 95% return rate that you're seeing out of Milwaukee County.
you're seeing a heavy Rep voting a heavy democrat c I feel better and I'm fee as these numbers have cont Are we seeing a big surge No, no.In fact, you're seeing early voting returns low in comparison to what they have been.
So you know that they're not coming out on election day.So we appear to be losing by less in areas where we absolutely needed to do that, Dane and Milwaukee County.And we appear to be winning the rack the score up game in counties like Waukesha.
Tyler, do you have a thought for Brett?Welcome, by the way, Tyler Boyer, CEO of Turning Point Action.
He literally just stepped in.He's been working the Turning Point Action HQ command center room all morning.So welcome, Tyler.
We've got, and it's just, it's a total command center in Wisconsin, as Brett's covered.We're curing ballots in Wisconsin, the largest curing operation happening for the conservatives in Wisconsin right now, where he's at right now.
And then obviously we're doing all our calls and texts. Brett, how are things looking in our rurals with our more rural team?
What are some of the reports that we're getting from kind of the upper side in between the Fond du Lac and Brown County areas?
Yeah, so I'll give you an example.So like one of the rural counties that I've had my eye on now for a little while is St.Croix County.You're seeing 163% YTD increase in returned absentee ballots compared to 2022.
So, you know, that was kind of the last election cycle that we had anything like even close to an early voting ground game.So
I mean, if you're seeing 163% and that seems to be kind of the trend of all of these rural counties seeing like upwards of 150% increase YTD from 2022 in return ballots in heavy red counties.
I mean, we're doing the job then that we need to do in racking up the score.
So, Andrew, do you have a thought for Brett here?
Well, I mean, Brett, I know you're overseeing, you know, not just Wisconsin, but you've got your eyes on other states, PA, North Carolina, Georgia.Give us a smattering of the reports coming in, especially North Carolina.
We haven't heard much from North Carolina right now.
Yeah, North Carolina is interesting because that's going to be one of the first states that we hear from tonight.They, uh, they end up ending their polling at seven 30 Eastern.So we're going to hear from them pretty early.
Um, our, our field staff is reporting long lines and heavy rural areas.
So, I mean, you're seeing the same trend that you would in a state like Wisconsin, uh, or a state like Arizona right now, seeing long lines and areas where we absolutely need to have that.
So, I mean, the good news is we're going to know about North Carolina pretty soon here, like within, you know, if it's five and a half hours here.So I'm curious here, just like you guys waiting on pins and needles.
Um, Brett, have you heard from back to Wisconsin?Have you heard from Hobday in his camp?Like what?What's the mood on the ground inside his his war room?
The Hovde camp has picked up some momentum the last week here.
I think the assumption was always, it was just a matter of, you know, the more that Trump performs better here in Wisconsin, that he was going to bring candidates like Eric Hovde up the ballot in the same way that Trump would bring up Carrie Lake in Arizona.
It's become increasingly clear that Hovde has a better path to victory here. I mean, I can give you guys an example of a ward that we've had our eye on for some time now, Pewaukee, kind of a heavy Republican stronghold.
You know, Hovde's gonna win if the turnout game is strong, and he's one of those candidates that absolutely can say that.
It just turned noon here in the central time zone, and we just had one of our guys on the ground go to this polling location, Wagner Park, that we've identified 1,000 conservatives that are not voting.They're already reporting a number of 687.
It's not even noon yet. Um, the turnout game appears to be on the strong side.I don't want to get out in front of our skis here, but that's going to look really promising for Eric hub to this this evening.
Tyler, can you explain what's going on in this picture?Cut 97 is up on screen.These are folks making calls in the turning point action headquarters.What's going on in that picture?
Yeah.And I actually just took a video and just tweeted it.We've got four rooms full of callers and textures happening right now.And what they're calling and texting is our universe of people that we have left who are low propensity to get out.
Because again, The high propensity will take care of themselves.A lot of them are dropping off.We're calling some of those people too through our Commit 100 program and some other things.But we're getting lots of feedback.I dropped it off.
I mailed it a couple days ago.Those numbers haven't come to Maricopa County yet. In Wisconsin, we have the same thing.
Like I mentioned, Brett is there helping ring lead the middle of not just getting people out to the polls, but now we're moving to curing ballots.
And so this is the thing that we're going to talk about a lot over the next few days, especially if we have tight races in some of these states.
It's not just presidential right you're curing for down ballot races so that's a big part that's a really good question Andrew because historically what would happen is in a presidential cycle.
or a senate cycle, what will happen is the campaign or the NRSC will fund people if it helps them.And then what will happen?They poof.They're gone.They're vapor.They're whoosie whatsie.That's what happens.They leave.And guess what happens?
Then we lose these down-bout races because there's no one there to cure.So this is part of the reason why the outside infrastructure is so important.This is one of the many critical reasons why.If you have outside groups that stay,
They help you not just win the presidential, not the Senate, not just the congressional, but all the way down to every legislative race, every city council race, every school board race.
So what we're going to be doing in Arizona and Wisconsin is regardless if President Trump blows this thing out of the water, right, we're going to still be there curing for everyone.
this is great i love this point in brett you've been through some of these these press inquiries along with the rest of the team where they go everybody's doubting the uh... the the way that the trump campaign is set up this election with all these outside groups untested and everybody you know it's like no this is not untested to tyler's point the depth the democrats have been using outside groups for basically decades now they're the ones that set up the system the way it is and we we noticed it was actually outperforming
the sort of centralized power at the RNC model.So this is actually a good thing for the movement.I want everybody to get that through their minds, that we reject the premise that this is somehow bad or untested.
This is actually the way it should have been set up, because groups like Turning Point and others are going to be there for the long haul.
I want everyone, email me freedom at charliekirk.com.Include the state that you are in when you send us your stories.Brett, we're going to keep you there.Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
Right here, someone says, Charlie, I'm 25 and my best friend is 24.Last week I picked her up and we voted for Donald Trump.First time ever in the state of Michigan.You got to love that.Charlie, I agree with everything you're saying.
I'm a 39 year old white male who has never voted until today. Saw your videos, I agree with what they're saying, and you got me to vote for Trump.Get this.I live in Western Wisconsin.
That is a first time white male voter, age 39, who is voting because of the Charlie Kirk videos.First time at 39.Again, that's what shakes the matrix, guys.
That, I mean, because, I mean, you're trying to pull, you're trying to track, all of a sudden, Ricky shows up in Western Wisconsin.No one was tracking for Ricky to show up.
Nobody assumed he was going to show up.
Right?And so that, uh, that helps really throw things off in a good way. Let me ask you a question.Do you think our country is going in the right direction, or does it feel like everything is falling apart?If you're feeling alarmed, you're not alone.
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uh... so look i'm now at five thousand emails this morning of people that have taken at least two or three or four other people i want to understand that that's a huge force multiplier right here let me just read this year in arizona charlie i have two co-workers this is brandon who have never voted and exactly they have just registered to vote because they wanted to be change that i don't know how the rest of the today that's fine
They went and voted today for Donald Trump.One 37-year-old white female, one female Hispanic.I have a theory, Tyler, and I want your Wisconsin thing.I think we're going to do better.You can same-day register in Wisconsin.Not in Arizona.
Oh, this is in Arizona?All right.Which, I don't know, maybe it's just the semantics thing.I think we're going to do better with working-class women than people think.
I think that, like, white girl women, that's a whole separate thing, like, you know, kind of white, college-educated.But working-class women, I think we're going to do better than people think. What's your Wisconsin?
Oh, for sure.And today we will definitely get and we will see a higher percentage of women because it's more Republican today.
So, you know, where we've seen.And so one thing that we've been tracking is modeling the independence in Arizona. The independents in Arizona are coming back slightly more Democrat than they are Republican.We won't get into the exact numbers.
But today will offset some of that or should offset some of that.And so as we're seeing these high Republican numbers, these high independent numbers, they're going to till they should till based off historics a little bit more Republican.
So a lot more conservative.
What's your Wisconsin story?Because we're running out of time.
So yeah.So one of our managers, Jordan, who's incredible on the Western Front in Wisconsin, actually shared a message from our group chat today from one of the voters he talked to, a quote.
And the voter said, to be honest, I probably would have voted unless you would have. you know, ask me to today, unquote.So this this works.A voter contact works, especially young people, the young people.
Glad you brought this up.Glad you brought this.We actually put together in honor of you coming on the show and having Brett here as well.Play 96 to B-roll as Tyler talks.
These are a few images just from this morning of first time voters that are our ballot chasers have brought out.So check these guys out.First time voters.
And guys, you know how hard it is to get a picture of someone while they're actually doing stuff, too?So this is just a fraction of the people that we're interacting with.And I'll tell you, too, yesterday, you want to get excited?
Yesterday, our team doubled our output.
No, not just doubled our output, doubled our output in goals.So our goal metric got doubled yesterday. Totally unexpected.It was our best day that we've ever had in chasing.Two times the amount of chase that they're expected to get on a daily basis.
I expect we'll have the same, if not better today.Right.Because it's ramping up.Everything's getting more.And then you have the buildup.So the beautiful part of if you do the chase correctly, there's buildup over the course of the month.
So more people, they get reminded more times they end up voting and there is a Fred, a Freddy, you know, election day vote boost that we're expecting.
We're not building it into our numbers, but Andrew, we're right now on track from the turning point action universe. we say it today.No, I don't want to jinx it.But once polls close, we can talk about it.
We'll talk about it for the next number of days.We'll have so much mic time to talk about this.I'll break down the numbers.
These are just first-time voters.Put that picture up again, guys.This is through our Chase.First-time voter.Go to the next one.
But here's where we're at.We're trending right now to be significantly above where we targeted for low propensity voters.What does that mean?Well, that makes up for mistakes or discrepancies with lower turnout with the high propensities.
That makes up for slightly unaccounted for variances between bleed from the left and the right, meaning people that cross over from Trump to Kamala and Kamala to Trump. It makes up for all these things.The female vote.
If we lose the female vote by a couple more points.
I got a great email here.Charlie, I have a small group of 10 women friends in Wisconsin.We're all over 65.We're all college educated.We all voted for Trump.Some of us still have a moral compass. Let me do another one here.
Email me freedom at charliekirk.com.Charlie, I'm a college kid at the University of Arizona.I only voted because of your appearance, and I got three friends who did the same.It was by Les and Pima, right?It's kind of cool.
We'll never know the actual impact of what we did this semester.We'll never know, right, Andrew?
Well, and all the actions together.And since, Brett, we still got you.Throw up image 98.This is in your HQ right now, if I'm not mistaken.The call center you have going on right there. Boom.Yep.
That's this is happening as we speak right now.This is the largest ballot curing operation that the state of Wisconsin has ever seen because there really is no standardized ballot curing program that exists here in Wisconsin.
And unlike a state like Arizona where you can ballot cure for five days after the election, you can only ballot cure on election day here in Wisconsin.This is the dark horse that I don't think the left sees.
We are making literal thousands of calls and sending 200 plus people on the ground to doors to help assist in curing ballots of likely Trump voters.Guys, I cannot tell you the impact that this could have over the next 24 hours.
You're doing a great job.All right, Brett, we're taking too much of your time.Go chase more ballots.Get more voters up, Brett.Cure more ballots.Do not sleep on Wisconsin.Wisconsin could end up being the determinative key.It really could.
Wisconsin get everyone, you know, email me freedom at charliekirk.com.Let me read this email here.And it is a ties into our guests.We have both Josh and Terry.Okay.That's amazing.
Charlie, my son got eight friends to vote for Trump today in Wisconsin.Joining us now is Terry Dietrich, who is the committeeman in Wisconsin, and also my man in Georgia, Josh McCoon.This is the all-star team.
Everyone watching right now, I want you to take notes, take a screenshot.These are two names.If we win the White House, these are two folks right here of names.They have done more. Let's just say clipboard and tennis shoes work.
They've done more shovel work than anybody in the grassroots of Pennsylvania.I'm sorry, Wisconsin and Georgia Josh and Terry first Josh.I'm going to start with you because we just did a whole Wisconsin conversation.
So Terry just hang on a second Josh.What is going on in Georgia?How do we feel give us an analysis and then contrast it to 2020.
So Charlie, we're feeling good.We've got about half a million people that have voted so far today.We're on trend for about 1.2 million total turnout today, which would set a record. for Georgia turnout.
As I've said to you before, I believe we ended early voting in the lead, which is unprecedented for us.But today, what I'm hearing again, is very strong turnout from our rural counties and rural precincts.
Lots of precincts reporting in that have already hit 80% of the election day total four years ago.So on trend to overperform in all really rural precincts, particularly in North Georgia, Georgia's 14th district, Marjorie Taylor Greene's district.
And then the city of Atlanta, very quiet, almost eerily quiet in terms of turnout at the moment.So obviously there's time left for a late surge to emerge.
But right now we are feeling very good about where the votes are coming from and the volume of votes we see coming in hour over hour.
OK, so tell me that in 2020, what did the urban areas look like at this time?And also, didn't they have more absentee ballots in the urban areas?Is that correct?
Absolutely.So the story in 2020 was the absentee ballot mail vote.Biden won that vote by 398,000 votes.It was his entire margin.This time we've had 250,000 absentee ballots returned with just today left.So very few absentee ballot by mail votes.
Most of the urban counties and Democratic districts we look at are underperforming from 2020.They were underperforming in the early vote.They are continuing to underperform in the Election Day voting.I actually believe when we close the books today,
that a lot of these areas are going to be under their total vote for 2020.And obviously we've added almost a million voters to our voter rolls in the last four years.
So to see that they're not even meeting the turnout from four years ago while we're seeing consistently over performance, more turnout, It looks really good for us heading into the final stretch.
Okay.So Josh, we're not celebrating anything, but tonight, if we win Georgia, if you're hearing me and you're in Georgia, go vote.No, no, no.By the way, everybody, we are dealing with Stacey Abrams.Okay.This is a crooked, crooked operation.
We need to surge, but I'll just say, if it goes our way, Josh, you deserve a lot of credit and we're going to be talking.We're going to have you on.We're going to really debunk, you know, kind of not debunk it, but debrief on it.Sorry.
It's been too long. long month this week.Now, Terry Dietrich, who is our Waukesha man.Terry, we just had a great conversation with Brett.As you know, Brett's doing a great job.Terry, I want you to say, how do you feel right now versus four years ago?
I would say certainly our early voting, which brought us equal or above Uh, the Dems makes me feel great because we weren't even close, uh, in 2020.I mean, it was a two thirds, one third.
And I would say right now we're, we've got the slight lead on that.I'm seeing 51, 52, 48, somewhere in that.So coming into game day here, I mean, I really feel good.
Uh, so far we've seen some pretty heavy voting out here and kind of the Western part of Waukesha.Our concern of course, is over in Brookfield and Elm Grove and right along that Milwaukee borderline that was just, uh, uh, you know, redistricted here.
So that's a concern for us.We're pushing hard.We're, we're, we're pounding the phones right now of every Republican and any, any, every low prop read over them, the east eastern side to push out.
But if I put it all in context, we're way ahead as of Friday night and that number and coming into game day.So I feel good.
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Don't change your dog's food and you don't have to, just add Ruff Greens.Go to ruffgreens.com slash kirk.ruffgreens.com slash kirk.Uh, Andrew, you have a thought for Terry or Josh here, but this is the all-star team, everybody.
And let me just say, email me right now, freedom at charliekirk.com, your successful voting story and how you have brought a new voter to the polls.That's all I care about.
If you guys are watching your high prop, you need to go bring a new voter to the polls, Andrew.
Yeah I mean what I'm hearing, it sounds like a lot, and maybe you guys can confirm this or debunk it, but what I'm hearing across the board is that we're seeing really good turnouts in the rurals, we're driving up the score there, and the urban centers seem to be a little bit quiet.
In PA, we're told that the urban core tends to kind of liven up as the day goes on.It gets a little bit more, the lines build up a little bit more.Is that what we're expecting in Milwaukee, in Atlanta?
Is there a tendency for the Dems to come out in the afternoon in the urban core?
Well, I'll just say in Georgia, Democrats tend to do very well in the early part of early voting, and they don't turn out as much on election day.So the situation we face
find ourselves in in this election is they really need to have very significant turnout in the next few hours.I can tell you that Whitfield County, Dalton, and North Georgia has already hit 80%.
of their 2020 Election Day number with five hours of voting to go.Bartow County, right outside of Atlanta, huge Republican stronghold.They're tracking ahead of their 2020 numbers.
Cherokee County, Catoosa County, on track to meet or exceed 2020 numbers.And we're just not seeing that in Fulton County or Clayton County or DeKalb County.They are not approaching those 2020 levels.
And obviously, that was a very close election when all of that happened.So if we're exceeding our targets in these key precincts, I think that we're on trend for a good day.But yes, you're right.
We'll probably see more turnout as the day goes on, but it just is going to take an awful lot of turnout.But I'll say one more time, if you're a Republican and you have not voted in Georgia yet, we need you to get to the polls right now, go to
SwampTheVoteUSA.com.Go find your polling place, get out there and vote.And as Charlie said, if you've already voted, help us get your friends and neighbors out right now, because this is it.
This is game time.One follow up, Josh, and then I want to hear the same about Milwaukee and Dane out of Wisconsin.But Josh, what's the what is the time frame?When can you get in line and still vote today in Georgia?
As long as you're in line prior to 7 p.m., you'll be allowed to vote. So once you're in line, you're in line before seven, just stay.You will be permitted to vote.Don't walk out of the line.You got to stay in line until they get you to your machine.
But I will tell you today, the lines have not been long because we had four million people vote early.So if you get to your polling place, you're probably not going to have a line.
So there's really no excuse to go in, check in, check out, get it done for Donald J. Trump and the Republican ticket.
All right, Terry, Milwaukee, Dane, how we looking?Are we expecting later in the day turnout for the Dems?
My good friend, Josh, there in Georgia, it's almost exactly the same in this.I mean, what's taking place here?Really high early turnout, which did not bode well for the Democrats that way.Look, Dane County is going to be a monster.
They're going to get their votes out.Brandon Malley and the turning point team up in Madison and Dane County is doing a good job.He's looking for three or four more points. to lose by less up there.I think that's a good shot.
I was talking to former Governor Thompson last night.He feels good about Dane County.They're going to put up their big number there.Milwaukee, on the other hand, so far, has been quiet.Absolutely.
I mean, we're looking at the inner city and the Hispanic vote.
So, Terry, Josh, you just said Atlanta eerily quiet.Terry, you just said Milwaukee is eerily quiet. Why is that, guys?We've heard the same out of Philly too.What's going on here?
Well, I'll mention one thing about Atlanta and Georgia is we saw really high turnout among black female voters during early voting.
but they were really approaching the ceiling of those voters as we were getting into Friday, which we had almost 300,000 people vote on Friday.
So I think part of what we're seeing is a lack of enthusiasm among black male voters and not, there aren't black female voters still available to go out and vote.They're literally running out of those.
So I think that is at least what is driving the lack of turnout we're seeing in Atlanta right now.
Yeah.In Milwaukee, you know, you know that on Friday night we had President Trump in the same Pfizer forum, uh, downtown Milwaukee.It was a very strategic move by the Trump team.
I give him a lot of credit because I would love to have him out here in Wauketra, but we put him downtown.It was absolutely packed. A lot of crossover Dems I think were very interested.Kennedy was there, pushed hard on that side.
We just haven't seen much activity.Kamala was there.She was here in Waukesha County.Bill Clinton was in Waukesha County, but they haven't spent a lot of time at all in Milwaukee.It's, it's surprising to us.
Now, you know, there's always a surprise at the polls down there because it is not trustworthy for sure.We're all over it with the election integrity team.
But I, I mean, I've been around a while and I've seen Milwaukee when it's up and crazy, like for Obama.And I've seen it when it's down.
And I, I gotta tell you that unless they have some kind of surge, I don't, I don't know about in the next four or five hours.I think that number is going to be down.I think Dane's going to be huge.
And so that offsets and obviously the wall counties out here, we've been infiltrated and we've got to really pound and make sure that we wouldn't, everybody's used the word out here, cannibalize.We didn't cannibalize our game day.
by voting really heavy early.I'm seeing heavy turnout here.Our eastern side is a concern.The middle and western portion of our county, I think, is excited and ready to vote at record levels.
Andrew, do you want to go through this Amish thing really quick?We have Josh and Terry here.
Yeah, this this was just a image that we we we found somebody posted online.It's not our image, but literal Amish Trump train spotted in Pennsylvania rolling down the road with a big Trump flag.Go ahead and throw that up.
And the caption reads, you know it's serious when the Amish get involved.And I mean, you know, kudos to Cliff and Scott working in PA.
Also Noah from ICA, our team, they've made huge inroads with the Amish, who oftentimes just kind of sit out the election.This time they are active and getting really involved in their civic duties, which is great.
So Josh, let's start with you.Talk about your election integrity team here and the eyes that you have in Fulton County, Cobb, et cetera.
So we have a tremendous team of attorneys, not just from here in Georgia, but all across the country.RNC has been great, giving a lot of support.We won a huge decision yesterday.
Cobb County was trying to extend to Friday the deadline to receive absentee ballots.The Georgia Supreme Court said no.Georgia law is clear.It's got to be done at 7 p.m.today.
So we got a great team, great team of volunteers, more poll watching shifts covered than ever before.So we are on top of it.When issues are being reported, we are jumping right on them.
Terry, tell us about your election integrity team that you have in Wisconsin.
You know, we always have fun in Milwaukee.So as you probably know, the RNC sued the Milwaukee Election Commission yesterday over the lack of providing access for our observers.
We had larger, largest, just like Jack, we had the largest observer and poll inspector crews in all the major counties here in Wisconsin.So we're well covered that way.Love the fact that when Josh and I talked six months ago,
He pushed in the fact that we not only needed lawyers, but we needed qualified, trained lawyers who are pitbulls to get in there and do that.And I see that here in Wisconsin, finally, which is great out here in Waukesha County.We trained 479.
poll inspectors.Those are the folks who can sit at the table.So we're in good shape.All of our surveys tell us we've got our equal amount of Republicans versus Democrats.So I think we're in really good shape that way.
Our state statute, frankly speaking, is the problem.We've got to clean up some of these irregularities and and gray areas.
And they're unfortunately being interpreted by various clerks in the Wisconsin Election Commission in very strange ways that causes a real challenge.
But as far as us being there in their face, watching what's going on, I think I feel real good about it.I know in Dane County, we're doing the same thing up in Brown County and Green Bay, the same.So we've got good presence on the college campuses.
So we're much, much better, much more prepared than we were in 2020.
uh... okay just i i have one more question here uh... and then we'll wrap it up with terry's well josh let me read this tweet here it's uh... from seth kessel on twitter real info no voting centers in the cab uh... with intermediate or long wait lines most under five minutes what does that mean josh and is that correct and are we reading that data correct you are in the campaign in georgia is the beating the heart of the georgia democratic party they have to have strong turnout indicate county
to win this election, but we're seeing it in Clayton County.We're seeing it in Dougherty County.We're seeing it in these Democratic strongholds all across the state.
They're underperforming, and the counties next door that tend to be Republican counties are overperforming.And again, I don't want to oversell it.We've got to have people go vote.There's five more hours to go.
But we feel really good about the trends that have been emerging throughout the day.We need people to continue to turn out, keep going to vote.You know, he took a bullet for us.
We can take the time to drive to a polling place and be in and out in five minutes and get this thing done for Donald Trump and the Republican ticket.
Let's close this out here.Terry, we just got an email from someone saying record long lines in rural Wisconsin, people that have never voted before, talked in length while they were in line about people that were getting crushed by inflation.
Terry, final thoughts here, the vibe on the ground in Wisconsin.
That is the vibe that's been here since day one of the early voting.The outstate here is going absolutely crazy for Trump.So that's fantastic.Same here.We've got big lines everywhere.I'm really feeling good about it.
We need to keep an eye on Milwaukee.Try to boost that a little bit, lose by less again. And then Dane County is going to be their only real stronghold that I see everywhere else in the state.We're looking good.
You know, I've got 45,000 people in my county right now that have not voted.We are on the phone.We are in the cars and the trucks.We're knocking, dropping, dragging, doing everything we need to do.We'll get all those.
We're finished with all our absentee ballot votes that have come in. We've chased all those for the last, uh, you know, 20 days or so.So ABs are in and we won that really, really handily.
So it all comes down to execution guys, and we're going to pull it off.
I hope so, man.We win Wisconsin.Wisconsin could be the sleeper of Pennsylvania.
But I want you guys to understand, you have Georgia, Wisconsin.You win those two states.And if we, look at the screen here.You got Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin right on screen.And if we had Michael Watley, we could have the whole gambit right there.
That's ballgame.As long as Iowa performs.We might get PA.
Sweep the blue wall, lose Iowa.
All right, guys, I want to be respectful of your time.Thank you so much.Josh McHugh and Terry Dietrich, two great patriots.Keep texting us with updates.And we are hours away from polls closing.Thank you, guys.
Blake, you're giving me that look like you.
I want to read this message that we got on YouTube.I believe it was Julian D donated 200 Argentine pesos.I want to.And he asked Charlie greetings from Argentina.I'll get that.Charlie, greetings from Argentina.What do you think about our president?
I like Malay, but I hope we never have to get
Exactly.So I wanted to highlight this because he donated 200, which sounds like a lot.That is 20 cents in U.S.dollars.And that is because they have had hyperinflation there, which we don't want to have in the United States.
We don't want to be bailed out by our own Malay in 10 years or 20 years or 50 years.And so that is why we're hoping that tonight's result is what we need.
Uh, Andrew, what are we seeing and what are we hearing right now?By the way, the amount of Wisconsin emails we're getting right now of people that are bringing out new voter.
It's on, I mean, just from a Richter scale standpoint, I like the vibe out of Wisconsin right now.I like it.
So the one question, and I want us to all take some humble pie.I mean, obviously we like some of the trends we're seeing.I'm not, I'm not trying to get us on a downer note.I just want to remind everybody that 2020 was COVID. We are not in COVID.
A lot of Dems voted by mail and they might have changed their voting habit back to voting on election day.And we need to, you need to emotionally prepare for that.That could be a reality, right?
But the same is also true.We did better with early voting.So there's just, again, it does not matter the order of operation you vote, just that you vote.Your vote does not count more in the fourth quarter than the first quarter.
However, voting the first quarter means that you don't have to vote in the fourth quarter. Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.We have right here first-time voter.Man, we're getting thousands of emails.Charlie, great job.
I got my 72 year old sister to vote for the first time.I got also two of my nieces to vote.They all voted for D.J.T.Charlie, my brother and I, 50 years old, are all first-time voters. I'm telling you right now.
What have these guys been doing the last decade?
Honestly, no one's earned their vote.But again, if these emails are any window, I'm just being honest.Again, we could be totally hopium right now.This could be totally I just want to be clear.
But if these emails are any indication of a broader trend, I have like 3000 emails of first time voters of people that are over the age of 30.
Hey Charlie, real quick, another one.How can someone phone bank or do something for Trump and PA today?
I have nothing to do with that.Take out your TP Action, take out your phone and download TP Action in the App Store.That's TP Action in the App Store. Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
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That is patriotmobile.com slash charlie. Email us your successful voting story.I'm going to read some of these first-time voters.Charlie, I'm a first-time voter, 38 years old, never voted before.Trump inspired me.Charlie, from Clayton, Wisconsin.
My son is a first-time voter.I got my mother, who is a first-time voter, to also vote for Trump, 86 years old.Isn't that amazing?86 years old.First-time voter, 20 years old, in Pennsylvania.It was very confusing.However, I voted.Love, Elon Musk.
Charlie, MAGA since 2016.My grandmother's over 80 years old from the Netherlands.She became a citizen 20 years ago.She voted for Trump.Charlie, let me just go to this one here.So a lot of first time voters.Tons.
I mean, if we win, it will be the rise of the low prop.It will be the rise of the low prop.
Can we do something real quick here?Can we play, I believe, I'm getting different numbers.I think it's 103.It should be the right clip from Bryce.Left us a voicemail.
Hey, Charlie, my name is Bryce.I just want to say thank you for opening my eyes upon this election.This is my second time voting and I was on the fence about who I was going to vote for this time.
I'm a previous Trump voter and I was going to change my mind, but upon watching your product, your podcast and doing my own research, I can tell that Trump is the best candidate for me.
I just wanted to reiterate on thanking you again for you have done for me and for others upon your podcast and going out to speaking to Gen Z voters like myself, um, and, and reaching out to them and teaching them the ways on how.
america should be and we should put american citizens first over others it's awesome right and uh... and by the way uh... bryce a member now is a new member of the members dot charlie kirk dot com so please consider joining if you join you can leave us voicemails really playing those throughout the stream tonight uh... which would be a lot of fun
I remind everybody we'll be streaming tonight.We're literally going to just go one more hour here and then just take a break for a little bit.Polls are closing soon, guys.The picture of what's going to happen is nearly complete.
The picture is going to be complete.I haven't heard much out of Pennsylvania lately.Have you?No.Good or bad?It's just kind of a lot of ambiguity.So I hope those lines are continuing.
If you have any intel on Pennsylvania, what's happening, email us freedom at charliekirk.com. First-time voter Charlie.My sister is two years older than I 42 years old First time voting and I got her to vote.She's it's amazing Charlie.
I'm a first-time voter.My husband and father-in-law are also first-time voters out today I'm tell you man.This is this is not normal.
I've done been doing this long time Charlie I'm 46 years old Chester County, Pennsylvania white female voter first-time voter 46 years old Arizona voting story Charlie.
I'm 32 years old female welder last week I made a plan with every single person my welder shop to vote We dropped off our ballots have a few friends.I'm picking up to the polls go Trump go female welder.God bless you Brianna.
That's amazing First-time voters get first-time voters out to the polls to email us is always freedom at Charlie Kirk comm that is freedom at Charlie Kirk comm Joining us now is Victor Jakes from Las Vegas Review Journal.
Victor does a great job, and Victor's analyzing what's happening in Nevada.It can be very confusing.Victor, welcome to the program.For our national audience, please explain what is currently happening on the ground in Nevada.
Well, Nevada, like a lot of places, there's some conflicting signals.So historically what's happened in Nevada is that Democrats have jumped out to a big lead.We have two weeks of early voting here.
We also have universal mail voting and obviously election day voting.So historically what's happened is Democrats have jumped out to a big lead, especially in Clark County, which is where Las Vegas is.About 70% of the voters are here.
And what Democrats like to do is basically run up the score in Clark County And sometimes they have an 80 to 100,000 voter advantage, and there's just not enough votes left in the state to overcome that.
And so what we saw this year, which was really encouraging for Trump and other Republicans, is that the Clark County voter edge, obviously we don't know how nonpartisans or minor party voters are voting, the voter edge for Democrats in Clark County was about 18,000 going into election day.
And so if you go to four years ago, what Democrats had was around 45,000 voter edge in Nevada.
And this year it was about 42,000 voter edge for Republicans, which is just, I mean, it's an almost 90,000 voter swing in a state that Trump won, or excuse me, that Biden won by less than 34,000 votes.
So you're going into election day with Republicans in the lead.Again, that's unusual.Usually that doesn't happen.And the other thing that usually happens is Republicans do very well on election day.
They outperformed Democrats, but we're also seeing something a little bit different this time, where Democrats are seeing a significant boost in turnout on election day.
Right before I came on the air here, I actually got some numbers, so you have to apologize.I'm looking down and doing this in real time, but compared to four years ago, Democrats are up 7,500 voters in Clark County.
Again, that's the Democrat stronghold.They went from 5,700 voters four years ago, voting by 10 o'clock election day in person to over 13,000.Republicans four years ago had a lead of about 6,200 voters.And that was actually probably closer to eight.
Some of the data wasn't complete.This year, Republicans voter lead at 10 a.m. is 4,000 voters.And what we've seen, we've actually seen more Republicans show up, but we've seen a greater number of Democrats show up than in past years.
And so, you know, obviously everyone wants to know how the election is going to go.I'd love to know how the election is going to go.Only God knows that.
What we do know is there is a 90,000, almost 90,000 voter swing compared to where we were four years ago going into election day.
And so while it's not what we expected with Democrats doing better on election day, they haven't yet produced the margins that they would need to really, really dig into that 90,000 voter swing that I've been talking about.
Andrew, you are Mr. Nevada.
What questions do you have for Victor here?Victor's Mr. Nevada, but I've been unfortunately out of state, exiled in communist California for a number of years.But Victor, I saw some tweets from you that were getting shared around.
you were essentially analyzing the John Ralston prediction.He predicted that Nevada was going to go narrowly, I guess like 0.3 percentage point, less than a point for Kamala Harris.
And it sort of shocked everybody because we're all looking at the early vote numbers as well, which is essentially, as you said, about a 90 vote swing towards the Republicans, towards Trump.
breakdown what what essentially you're seeing in his numbers.Do you do you take issue with any of his assumptions any of his predictions.What can you tell us.
Well to be a little cliche here for Las Vegas basically Democrats are holding a 7 and a jack and they need to draw an 8 9 and a 10 for a straight. because that's what they need.They need to win election day.Historically, they have lost election day.
It looks like that is possible.I don't think they're gonna win it by major margins, but that's possible.And then they need basically an unprecedented amount of mail ballots still to come in.
And one of the crazy things in Nevada that happens, and one of the reasons we're not gonna have results probably for three days, is that all the ballots don't have to be in by election day.
They can be mailed in and then they can be received up to four days after the election.
And further complicating it is that you can go to the polling place and drop off your mail ballot and we won't know how many of those ballots there are until tomorrow.And so, you know, basically Democrats need a huge, huge surge in mail.
So they need a huge surge in in-person election day voting.They need a huge surge in mail ballots. And even then, that's still not enough, right?They need rural Nevada.
There's 15 counties in Nevada that are pretty sparsely populated, but they're very strong Trump counties.And if they vote strong, they really give Republicans just a major margin of victory.
So Victor, I want to, so we talked so much about
clark county let's go to washoe what are you what are you seeing numbers wise in washoe or and by the way are you hearing day of reports in washoe uh... you're saying that clark county democrats are are performing well okay but worse we see it apparently is in and do we still have the margin statewide or you just saying there's a we still have about a four thousand margin in clark because we're gonna win day of right i mean that's the entirely it'll historic historically we win day of so go to historically yeah
Okay.So let me just let me just clarify there.Republicans have a 43,000 voter lead.And right now you would say that's that's around 47,000 voter lead in the state with with the looming mail drop off ballots as kind of an unknown.
So Washoe County four years ago, at this point, before Election Day, Democrats were up by about 400 votes.Currently, Heading into election day, Republicans were up by, I think, I want to say it was around 7, 700, 800 votes.
So a pretty significant shift in Washoe.And what we've seen in the Washoe numbers, let me just do this on the fly.So far, Republicans have outvoted Democrats by about 1,000 people through 10 a.m.Four years ago, it was 1,700.
So you're seeing turnout go up for both parties.More Democrats are turning out. proportionally than Republicans.Republicans still have a lead in Washoe.
And so I expect that Republicans are going to do better in terms of voting than they did four years ago.
And so just to circle back on kind of that last assumption, if you think Democrats are going to pull it out in Nevada, you also need nonpartisan voters to break for Democrats in a strong way. You know, could it happen?Absolutely it could happen.
You know, I don't know what everyone's voting.What I do know is that nationally there have been all of these stories about how Kamala Harris is struggling to motivate young black and Hispanic voters.
And if you look at Las Vegas and to a lesser extent, Washoe, who do Democrats need to turn out?Well, they've needed to turn out young black and Hispanic voters.
And if you look at those parts of the metro area, those are the parts where Democrats are missing votes.
And so I still think that the simplest explanation for what's happening in Nevada is Kamala Harris couldn't motivate that set of voters that everyone's been talking about for months at this point, and it showed up here in Nevada.
And Democrats' effort to churn out more voters, you know, probably will save them some down ballot races. But overall, I still think Trump is the favorite in Nevada.Obviously, the ballots are yet to be counted.
Sorry.Yeah.Charlie's deferring to me for the Nevada update here.Victor the is the rurals.What was the turnout percentage wise in the rurals and compare that to what we're looking at now.
I know it's a smaller chunk of the vote but I also those are my people and I know that.Yeah.It was like 75 25 80 20 you know votes right there for Trump.
the margins.And so what we saw four years ago is these rural Nevada counties, as you said, are small, but they're very, very strong Republican, four to one, five to one.
And four years ago, they turned out 85 plus percent of registered voters in many cases.And so if you're looking at it, rural Nevada has outvoted outvoted Clark County heading into election day by five or 10 percentage points.
And I anticipate that that will continue, that those rural counties will have a lot of Trump and Sam Brown for U.S.Senate ballots.And they seem to be showing up.So I think they're on track to turn out above Clark County.
I would anticipate Clark County getting between, you know, 70 to 75 percent and rural Nevada getting between 80 to 85 percent.And, you know, that 10 percentage point turnout difference could make all the difference.
Victor, excellent analysis as always.Thank you so much.We'll keep a close eye on Nevada.It has been the most talked about early voting state of any state.So much modeling, so much predicting, so much chatter.Victor, thank you so much.
Thanks, Victor.Thanks for having me.
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Protect yourself, protect your family, and stay connected with Sat123.com. Okay, again, this is completely anecdotal, and I could have egg on my face, all right?
But if I were to say, Charlie, because I'm at now 7,000 emails, which is something, where is the pulse?And this tends to be interesting.Andrew, don't sleep on Wisconsin.
I'm telling you, the amount of working class people that are emailing me from Wisconsin right now saying they brought five friends, six friends, everyone's talking about Trump, formerly Dem areas, and the early voting wasn't great for them.
I'm just saying like it's, and by the way, you win North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Trump is president.
Yeah.You, you essentially take PA off, off the board, assuming we hold Iowa, of course, Charlie, but yeah, I mean, listen, we're getting, we're getting a ton of incoming saying rurals are, are there's lines out the door, historic turnout.
urban core seem depressed if that holds which is a huge if uh... we're gonna see what happens you saw clark county should give everybody a little bit of pause clark county's have a good day for democrats on election day we're still we're still holding it advantage
uh... overall in clark county but if they can do it in clark they can do it some other places the other you know in victor i think pinpointed this really well the other x factor in nevada is that vote by mail drop that they're going to try to keep down and that's the harry reid machine that you don't need nevada if you win arizona was of course north carolina of course but as an ad and i want
I wanna run up the score.By the way, Pennsylvania, I'm getting such mixed message on Pennsylvania.It is a crooked state.Charlie, it's good.It's bad.It's great.I mean, not bad.It's like Dems are surging here.Dems are low here.
It's a ghost town in Philly.It's high in the burbs.I don't know.You just gotta go vote, okay?But I'm getting a little bit of a clearer picture in Wisconsin.Why?It's less people, okay?There's like not as much.What's the electoral votes there?
Is it like nine?It's 11, I think.Let me double check.It's 10, actually.So Arizona's more.Right in between.So it's 10.Yeah, we're 11.
yeah so um anyway again this is just uh this is just anecdotal email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com i want to read some of these emails here of people that are first-time voters charlie six more votes in trump six more official votes cast cast for trump in arizona jayden says god bless you 90 year old mom in pennsylvania nice guy just picked her up in a golf cart uh for the long way back to her car thanks to conquer township workers helping my mom and that is a 90 year old with a maga hat on you gotta love it
First-time voter, Charlie, this is my first time ever voting.Voted for a safe, healthy, and prosperous future.Again, I do not know how we're going to do the youth vote.I haven't seen any youth vote tallies recently.
So, Charlie, I'm 36, Mexican-American, first-time voter from Tucson.I voted for Trump because I saw your videos.
how cool is that from tucson as a lot of these again i can't believe how many of these people there are i'm not planning these like for the record like i'm not this is not seating these okay this is is all legit here okay uh... which is amazing it's very comforting to hear that people are voting uh... because of what we're doing because you can a kind of live in a bubble you don't know if anyone's listening
Sometimes.Let's go here.Charlie, first time voter, 23 years old.Trump, all the way.Arizona, this is a first time voter.Charlie, this is my first time voting since I missed the last election.Just missed last election.My family's hardcore right.
Was so excited.Loved it.Thanks so much.My 18 year old is a first time voter.Registered and became a Trump voter.Proud mama bear.Good for you.Kyle is shooting and lives in a Democrat household.Haha.But my vote is private.I voted for Trump.
Trump all the way. I love that.First family vote.Let's go to this one here.So email us freedom at charliekirk.com.This is one of my favorite guys.Family of 20 just went and voted for Trump. Family of 20.It's a Mormon family.Oh, wow.
20.And you wonder why there's 18?
They're out doing the Duggars?That's great.It's got to be like aunts and uncles.
Yeah.All right.Email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to our podcast.Give me your early voting, your voting stories.And I'm signing hats members dot charliekirk.com.Andrew has a clip he wants to say.
all right this is uh... you'd try the reason we we pulled this is you're actually looking at it on the on the screen here uh... as cnn was playing this is we have we have a wall full of all the uh... networks playing so we can observing monitor everything that's going on anyways we pulled the clip is it was actually pretty interesting this is right here in america but county cnn interviewing a voter one oh seven you just voted for for for donald for donald trump uh... walking through white white cast of
Yeah, so just seeing what's been happening in the past four years.You know, I voted Democrat the past four years and I'm really disappointed in the administration, how everything has been going.
I was in the mortgage industry for quite some time and that hurt us pretty bad.I lost my job because of it. dealing with the recession and everything.I know that everyone's saying we're looking for solutions from every party, right?
But in actuality, the solutions they came up with were no solutions.It hurt us even more.Now you have to have a son with parents and, you know, daughter.All the families get together to be able to even afford a home or even afford a rent.
You know, the economy is number one issue for you.Absolutely.It impacts every one of us.Did you vote for Biden in 2020? I did.I'm sorry.I did.Yeah, I did.I was, uh, I was deceived, but I'm a walking example of how people can change your mind.
You know, you just go with the evidence of, you know, what benefits you, what benefits you and your family.So Biden has not been beneficial to my family.
Such a good clip.I love it.I was deceived.I'm a walking example of how people can change their mind.So by the way, when you're looking at these partisan returns, one of this is a good, this is a good note of caution for both parties.
There is going to be some bleed of Republicans that vote Democrat and Democrats that vote Republican.
Totally.It happens every cycle.
Yeah.And usually that number is pretty much fixed, but here's why it's maybe a bit more concern to conservatives.In a state like Arizona, we have more people registered.
So if both parties lose like 6% of their voters, that means Republicans are losing more of theirs.Now, I hope that we're bleeding less, but that's a great example of a Democrat coming over and breaking party lines.
email us freedom at charlie kirk dot com charlie first-time voter from tucson arizona god bless you uh... another email that i sent you guys here which is great charlie universe wisconsin first-time voter charlie from you to be madison student who got my entire friend group to vote for trump today after getting in the come to your event madison currently wearing the maga hat you signed don't sleep on wisconsin we put so much work in wisconsin uh... that was always going to be a little bit along shot but uh... we'll see what happens there
charlie first-time voting in a presidential cycle from northern wisconsin how great is that i got the amount of this is constant there was lots of emails guys western wisconsin northern wisconsin you know it's interesting that it what what terry was saying though about dane county that it was that he's expecting it to come in big you know i mean they must have just that killer operation in dane
I mean, but we broke some of that.I got to believe we broke.
Well, I mean, these guys are again, but if they don't know, they need Milwaukee plus Dane, yes, less competitive.Wow.And decreased rural.So we have increased, increased rural Dana strong for them ish Milwaukee down.Wow.Good.
Let's see what happens again.Wisconsin is the most formulaic of all the battlegrounds, meaning it's very simple to look at the inputs.Pennsylvania is an art, not a science.Pennsylvania is a mess.
it's like oh well scranton is high in the third as well and centers up until help is here and there is there is there is that what in the front it is a complete like there's no formula exists right like i stand with the people of her she
No, I know, but it's like Lancaster is down and Hershey is up and Harrisburg is trending down.Lancaster?It's Lancaster.Lancaster.By the way, Amish country is south of there.
They have some funny names over there, I will say.As a West Coast boy, I always look at Pennsylvania.
If we look at the vote in New Hampshire, it's Lebanon, not Lebanon.
It's not East Palestine. Yeah, it's just that we're gonna have to check the East Palestine vote.I want to check that one.Yeah, I bet that vote is pretty solid.
We're gonna want to be checking East Palestine.We're gonna want to check Springfield.
We're gonna want to check Charleroi.Charleroi.Yeah, no, I mean, look, there's, again, Michigan is a whole other thing here.By the way, Maddie says, Charlie, I am a first-time voter, longtime Trump supporter, and NAU student.I got an exciting text.
I voted by early by mail, but I got an exciting text from an undecided voter today.I got her to an event with me.She'll be dropping off her ballot for Donald J. Trump today. God bless you, Maddie.Thank you so much.You are the best.
Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.Charlie just got off work today and voted.La Crosse for Trump, second time voter.Know many people are voting for the first time.Wisconsin, many for Trump.We sense a wave coming in the Badger State.
By the way, Democrats might regret doing same-day registration in Wisconsin.
they uh... yet what it is you you mention your your friend that was trying to vote in the same day registrar i mean i got a lot of low props benefit us right now it was really when you have uh... joe rogan charlie a lot and you might but no here here's let me connect two dots for you don't men on wisconsin men are the least likely to get their paperwork filed the right way to register to vote to get a plan
and then you have the states like wisconsin nevada that have same day voter registration and you have the night before the election joe rogan officially endorses who's that gonna benefit in those two states charlie i've always leaned right but haven't voted over a decade listen to this point always leaned right but haven't voted over a decade my wife and i made sure to get out and vote for donald a trump this morning milwaukee let's win wisconsin appreciate your work i mean i'm getting thousands of first-time wisconsin voters
Charlie, I live in Wisconsin.I'm 21 years old.I just voted for Donald Trump.Thanks for all you do.What is the entire state of Wisconsin?Are we like, live on local Wisconsin television right now?
I mean, every other email is, uh, Charlie, East Central Wisconsin here.Wisconsin will go for Trump.Rain was forecasted for most of the day.Bodes well for red-blooded Americans.Man, I hope so.
By the way, Eric Covey deserves a lot of credit for narrowing the race and focusing him focusing on the issue.I've heard so many good things about it.By the way, it's possible he outperforms.It's possibly from Trump, but he could be jumping.
He spent 40 million dollars of ads narrowing the issue set that favored Trump.Does that make sense?Where voters were like, oh, immigration.Oh, inflation.
update update from uh... cliff uh... maloney in pennsylvania i said any new updates clues he said it's constant lines in red areas philly picking up but nothing major right here north carolina student first time for trump charlie i took my ex-wife and a ninety six-year-old dad to vote uh... to vote for some of the something is a ninety six-year-old first-time voter
Speaking of which, by the way, can we just give a shout to Bernie Marcus?
Bernie Marcus passed away today.Ninety five.You know what?I wish I if we win, I wish he could have saw it.He spent hundreds of millions of dollars.Rich is on there.Rich.So it's just kind of one of those things.I wish he could.
I know.Well, he's in a better place right here really quick.And then Charlie, I'm 22 years old.I voted for Trump on my ballot at trouble voting.So many others worried about this special.I'm not getting in. that you should have voted early.
Okay, seriously, just vote early and then you have no problems.Sympathy is nothing.I wore the vote early shirt for 30 days straight.We did everything we could for there, so hope it works out for you.
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Fight naturally with Relief Factor, relieffactor.com. Rich, what are we seeing right now?You sent out a very cryptic tweet.Yeah, there you go.Rich, you sent out a cryptic tweet saying that the Obama gang is increasing the turnout in Pennsylvania.
Give us the truth of what's happening in Pennsylvania.
Yeah, so there's a lot of misinformation going around with Philly and other areas that simply have no numbers.So people are just making stuff up.I mean, wholly out of cloth.
Unless you're talking to people who are township supervisors or ward bosses that are literally in charge of looking at how many votes have been counted today, you don't know anything.And this happens every election.
So, well, what I was referring to in my tweet, Charlie, is story that I got, which is an interesting story.And I think it makes sense as to what we're seeing.
Basically in the final few hours, there was like a two week period through all early voting and the Harris team didn't want anyone's help.They wanted Biden, team Biden to stay away.And eventually he made that comment, right?
Which when they brought him in, he made the garbage comment and they were mad.So they kicked him to the curb. the old schoolers, and these are smart guys, they had been beating down the door, like, look at your early vote.This is a problem, right?
And by the way, Jim Messina just blew it up on MSNBC the other day.It's like, Jen, we've been texting back and forth.I mean, is he wearing lipstick in that clip?Do you have it?If you want to play it, I'll shut up.
You can play it so everyone knows what I'm talking about.
Okay. So basically they weren't getting callbacks and, and, and they said, okay, you don't want to answer our phone calls.We're coming to town.We actually spoke to a voter over the weekend in Philadelphia.He's an unlikely voter.
He's a African-American 36.He, and we're starting to ask people, did they contact you?Did campaigns contact you?And he was contacted for the first time. The first time he's only a 2020 voter.
And he told us that they had, you know, been, he'd been knocked by multiple groups the first time in that day.And he did not vote.They were like, look, we noticed you didn't hand in your ballot.And he's like, that's right.
When we talked to him and interviewed him, he was upset.And he said, you know, they basically told us Trump was Hitler.You got to get out and get rid of him.He's, he's the problem for COVID.He did this to us.He said, so I voted.
You know, but they also told us that everything was fine with Biden.
And I thought that this mental acuity stuff was like, you know, I'm not going to use the words he used, but he said, I thought that that was all right wing nonsense and talking points.
And they lied to me, man, the guy's senile, you know, and I'm not going out and voting for the next one just because they bang on my door and, you know, try to usher me over to, to drop it in the box.I'm not doing it.So he's not voting.
So I just, I'm bringing that up because the story that was just relayed to me, tells me that the old schoolers, like the Obama people, are trying to save this thing last minute, but her turnout is not good.
Okay, what's their biggest concern right now, if you're the Harris team?
Well, look, I think it's a couple things.The early vote numbers are a little scary, and you and I have been texting back and forth.Republicans didn't do what they did last time.Last time, Trump said, don't early vote.And so they didn't.
Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers.When the early vote come in, it's going to look a little bit different than 2020.And that's scary.
That's scary, Rich Barris. Yeah.
Look, he's, he's admitting something publicly that honest from everyone that I've spoken with, uh, that, that has plugs to this campaign.They'll admit it privately.
They'll say, look, we know we didn't do well in the early vote, but the argument is basically, and this is, uh, you know, you don't want to do this.It kind of sounds like Trump's campaign in 2020.Don't worry.
It's all going to break for us because all of these factors are going to fall in line.There's going to be so much women, women are going to put us over what we can see now that that's a very shaky proposition to.
Also that they think Republican women and indies in specifically are going to give it to them.But here's the kicker.All right.We just, and I know it's very, very small sample size of actual votes, but the bottom line is that really didn't happen.
in Dixville Notch, those Haley voters voted for Trump.That really didn't happen in Guam.It didn't happen in the Northern Marianas Islands.So, I mean, maybe that's different.It's a very small sample.But, I mean, that's a lot to ride your campaign on.
And then also, I don't know if you had Victor on yet to talk about Nevada or if I'm a little before or a little after him, but, you know, he's going to come on.
I just want to interject.Yeah.And ABC News just leaked this.Their internal, like some internal Republican model Republicans model Wisconsin has Trump up one and a half in Wisconsin.I think it might be BS.I'm just saying, don't sleep on Wisconsin.
But yeah, go to Nevada, please.If you live in Wisconsin, find every human being to go vote right now.You can win Wisconsin with the White House.Please, Rich.
Yeah, I mean, Wisconsin could be the key to all of this.I mean, typically these states vote together, but we'll see.
The problem also with that argument is that as Republicans have registered more voters in states like Nevada, the registration game is not sexy, but it's very important.
And when you see turnout disparities like we're seeing in Nevada right now, everyone expected Democrats and Clark to vote at a higher rate, but they're not voting. at their level or outperforming their level or their share of the vote outstanding.
And Republicans are, right?So when that happens, what can typically go down is that not only are your voters more energized, but your independent leaning voters are more energized.These are people who are registered as other or unaffiliated and
We all, you know, we call them independents, but the truth is, independents are made up of mostly people who don't have a partisan registration, but they have partisan leanings, a small share that says they don't agree with either party, and then a smaller share that says that they have, you know, something in common with both.
And when you see these turnout disparities,
It's possible she could do it, Charlie, but to hitch your wagon to this idea, when independents could in the end and like Washoe turn out, uh, to, to actually lean to Trump because they're going to vote for Trump in the rurals.
The other numbers that you see being reported on the hour, um, you know, in places like Elk and, you know, these other counties, they're going to vote for Trump, right in Clark. Indies typically or other typically votes for Democrats.
I mean, Washoe, that is we don't know.I mean, they voted for Lombardo and they voted for against by a hair, but against Laxalt in 22.So they split their vote in Washoe, those those other voters.
So it's hard to have family members in Washington, rich that have done the same.All right.
Yeah, they're key.No.Yeah.I'm just going to say now we just got the update in Washoe and Republicans have maintained an election day.
They went into election day in Washoe County with an early vote lead, and they now have just maintained, slightly expanded it by a few votes to 1,000.I think it's like 1,090 net over Democrats.
So if their whole presupposition is that those voters are going to vote for her and that's going to put her over, man, that sounds shaky to me.
That sounds like the Trump campaign in 2020 trying to convince me that their election day vote is going to come in so big on election day.It's going to overcome Joe Biden's lead.And as you know, better than most are in Arizona.
You know, they called it for Joe Biden immediately because his lead was so big.I don't agree with that call, but it's hard to overcome a deficit.
So Rich, I want to read this email here, and I want you to tell me about Wisconsin.Again, we've spent a lot of time and money on Wisconsin.We're not in charge of Wisconsin for the record, right, Andrew?Yeah, right.We're supplemental.
Yeah, we've put a lot of energy into it.
Yes, but it's always been a big lift.Russell, and he says, 12 years since I voted.Charlie, I'm 40 years old, a male from Wisconsin.It has been 12 years since I voted last.Today I voted for Trump.
There was a large presence of males in my voting ward as well. I convince my brother and a few of my friends who aren't politically active to get out and vote as well.Love your work."Rich, we're getting lots of emails here.
Either a bunch of lefties are trolling me and sending a bunch of Wisconsin emails with fake email addresses, which I find to be... Or, Rich, do you see the rise of Wisconsin?Yeah, the rise of the Wisconsin mail.
Wisconsin is one of the three Rust Belt states where men can outvote women.They can come in 51 to 49.It has happened before.It happened for Walker several times.There are more men in the electorate than women. So absolutely that could be.
And just as an, it's anecdotal, of course, but when I, uh, my kids were home from school today and, uh, it was, I obviously was getting on the early vote train, but they wanted to go see how it was done.We know someone down there.
So I walked them down there thinking I'll be in and out.They'll get a quick tour.And there was a line of men.This is a pre, this is an area specifically that area Trump won by 21 points in North Carolina back in 2020.
I have never seen a line this long since I moved here. Never, and it was, I mean, of course there were women on it too, but it was heavily male, it was heavily working class, and the early vote was robust.
So I'm, you know, just leading to my thinking that I'm gonna just waltz right in and out of this fire department, you know, in and out.No, sir, that line was around the fire department.I've never seen that before, Charlie, never.
22, 20, it has never happened. So we'll see Andrew, but it's not a bad sign, rich.
So how much are we anticipating this day of surge for Democrats in the sense that covid?I mean, I think a lot of Democrats just change their voting habits.They went vote vote early.Right.
you know we got somebody and texted us they were talking to a friend that a lot of democrats want to vote on election day in p a this is in pennsylvania because they want their daughter to see them vote for the first woman president like i mean it's like a twitter thing it could just be a terrific but it's it's it's yeah it is is are we seeing that it and and then after that i want to go to north carolina and your former home state
Yeah, so I mean, that sounds like a social media thing.It really does.But I will tell you, Pennsylvania has at least a residual culture of voting on Election Day.
There are a few places where Democrats still do have infrastructure to get out a vote on Election Day.And one of them, of course, is Philadelphia.But we'll see, because, you know, you know this from the work you guys have been doing.
Partisans listen to their party strategy when it comes to the preferred method of voting.When Democrats picked up the mantle in 2020, vote by mail, vote early, vote with friends, vote by mail, get it in, get it banked.
It is hard to change that behavior.Look at how difficult it was to change it for Republicans, right?Months of research, months of door knocking, months of text messages, months of getting Donald Trump himself to say, vote early, vote early.
It takes a lot to change voter behavior. They didn't expect this.This is important for everyone to understand.They did not expect this.
And now they're trying to convince everyone they can turn out this huge number in a day because their early voting bombed. I mean, I'm very skeptical of this, just like trying to be as impartial as possible as I possibly can.
Voters listen to the party's preferred method.They are all in on the early vote train.They have, they have been since 2020.And by the way, the wins in Pennsylvania.
where Federman outperformed the polls, he didn't do it because he got a huge turnout on election day.He did it because they banked so much more of the early vote than Republicans did, like they did in 2020.And they didn't do that this time.
It's a reality.It's a reality.A lot of this is spin, you know?
They're calling it the plus.
So Rich, It looks like there's a couple- Philadelphia is its own island and we'll deal with Pennsylvania later.I have a feeling we're gonna have a week-long stream on Pennsylvania.I could be wrong, I just- it doesn't- I don't know, maybe not.
Let's just put that aside, I don't wanna make any predictions.But Georgia- Atlanta is sleepy, man, and Milwaukee is sleepy.Those two cities are sleepy.What does that mean?
Yeah, that's a bad sign for Harris.I mean, that's the easiest way.Even in North Carolina, where we have Wake County, it's very democratic.Trump, you want to stay somewhere in the neighborhood of 35%.There's two things that I think are important.
Again, that is showing up because they were there doing their early vote thing and they got votes that they needed to get.As many as 20, no, but a decent amount, enough to not get complacent over.
Uh, but in a place like Milwaukee, we're just not, we just not seeing it.I mean, the last number I looked at was 44%.That's awful.And what it means, let's say Republicans didn't turn out in rural counties in a statewide race.
Not only will they get less, obviously less raw votes because of that, but their margins will actually shrink because the turnout advantage to Democrats means they will improve their margins there.If Kamala Harris's.
Turnout shrinks compared to Donald Trump's.It means his margin will marginally increase as well, even in urban areas.He'll do better in these urban areas because more of his voters are in that electorate, even in urban areas.
That's like something that's just a dynamic that tends to happen.So they need these numbers to get up.They do. And I'm not saying that so Republicans can go, okay, it's over, go home.It's not, it's not.
But yeah, I mean, there's hard, it's hard to find a good data point for the Harris campaign where you can point to it and say, there it is, Charlie, we pulled these people all the way to the end.
There did not seem to be this meaningful break of Republican women. that they're arguing for.In fact, their polling and a few what looks to be outlier polls are the only data points suggesting that.You can go to Cuyahoga County, by the way.
It's a great source of information.It's real.I'll give it to people real quick.It is MV Red Podcast.They're constantly tracking Cuyahoga County and the returns as they get them from officials.Look at how down, blue areas,
As of and this is not updated anymore.We need a new update, but the last one we got Cleveland 32% Lakewood 53% Beachwood 57 Shaker Heights 55.Those are all blue now Strongsville red 55. North Royalton, 57.Broadview Heights, 61.Brecksville, 61.
So what happens when you see turnout disparities like this, even in some of these urban centers, you're going to see more Trump voters in the mix, and he'll wind up even doing better in some of these urban areas if Democrats don't get these shares up.
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okay rich you're welcome make a call but it's not arizona hold hold your horses pennsylvania art dot out you want me to say it now okay so you know i can't i can't uh... reveal whom getting this from but again if you're not it if you don't have people in pennsylvania who are in the positions to give you this stuff then you really can't you can't know so uh... and not for me uh... but there is in turnout
the, uh, in bucks, it really does appear that it's in all the right places for Donald Trump.So we're breaking down these things, you know, by, uh, precincts, Donald Trump narrowly won, narrowly lost, right.Is more educated, is not more educated.
And the turnout is lower in the deep precincts and all the right places is the, is the.
proper way to, you know, just give it the easy breakdown here to make a very, very long story short without going through lower one, lower two, and all these different, uh, township precincts.That's the very short end of it.
Uh, he's doing well in, in places in bucks where he would need to, to make bucks close.And by the way, he lost bucks twice. So it's interesting to know.
And there's a bellwether, there are bellwether precincts and townships that I'm gonna be looking at immediately when those polls close and those results are reported, because you have places like Ben Salem, Charlie, voted for Trump in 16, voted for Biden in 20.
They're gonna tell us a lot right away.Now, we may not have all of their votes.We're gonna get the early first in Pennsylvania.We'll get the early first, then we'll get the election day. All right.
And then later they have until eight o'clock around Bucks, for instance, there's like 11 drop areas to have until eight o'clock to put that ballot in the drop.And then people will go around and collect them and then we'll have to wait.
There are an unusual number of Republican provisional ballots.What happened?It's just the nature of the beast trying to get them to vote early.
If you waited about a week out from election day, you probably didn't get your ballot in time and you cannot now just go and vote in person.So. they're going to have to vote by provisional ballot.
So I'm just, I'm telling you that not to cause any kind of like disturbance, but last time those provisionals went for Biden pretty significantly.That is probably not going to be the case this time because a lot of them, you can see it clear as day.
A lot of them are the product of Republicans trying to get their vote in early, doing this for the first time, you know, in this robust and just not getting some of their ballots back for their voters in time.
Richard an excellent work we're gonna let you go come back later tonight the stream is gonna be on fire right now we have like 80,000 concurrence by the way just right now in this afternoon shows it's kind of crazy.
So who knows what tonight's gonna be.Thank you guys.
It's crazy.I'm looking at the flags that we're getting in the YouTube channel.We're getting people from Greece, Serbia, Brazil, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Canada, Argentina,
We love Malaysia we'd love them but I trade them all for a couple from Western Wisconsin.
I'll tell you right now the the Wisconsin emails are amazing.I'm not going to make any calls but that's good energy.It's really good energy and I doing this a couple election cycles.I can usually tell the type of email you have pattern recognition.
I like what I'm seeing out of Wisconsin. This is it, everybody.Five minutes left, guys, in this stream, and then we're gonna take a little break for everyone watching at home, and then we are streaming literally all night.
We're gonna maybe close our eyes for 20 minutes, have a little bit of food, and we'll be back, what, at 5.30 Eastern?Is that right?And the first post close at 6, right?Yes.Okay.So we'll kind of start 30 minutes ahead.That's in just a couple hours.
So do you do you want to do any prognostication Charlie.
You're not in that business.Not anymore.I would say here's what I will say.I agree with you.I feel increasingly bullish about Wisconsin.I feel a little bit less bullish on Pennsylvania if I'm being honest.
We're getting some reports that some of the precincts in Pittsburgh are really picking up.They're beating their 2020 margins.That's I don't think that's statewide.I don't think that's in Philly.But that's a sign that you could start seeing
the urban core pick up as the day goes on right as people get off work maybe the clock out early in the they'd they'd had made a plan to vote in the afternoon and we all need a brace for the fact that p a is not to be some blowout either way it's gonna be a it's gonna be a dogfight your point you we we might be counting votes there for a while i think nevada the clark county showing that as a vote by mail french fight yet the the the the in nevada the vote by mail drops are gonna be a disaster
Clark County's picking up steam.So again, we shouldn't make the assumption that 2020 voting patterns are going to hold.The Dems are going to come out on Election Day.
I would say, apparently, it's like a ghost town in DeKalb, in Fulton, Georgia, in places in North Carolina, in Philly, Milwaukee.That's a really good sign.
Okay, so we got some really good sign, and I like some of the breaks that we're getting in Maricopa County, where GOP are still outpacing Dems.Look, there's a lot of independents, though.
A lot of independents.And this is why I'm not making any calls on anything.If the independents go totally underwater for Trump, we're going to have a long week.
Yeah, if they surprise us and break significantly towards Kamala.
Which, to be clear, would be against anything we're hearing on the ground, anything in polling, anything in public attitudes.However, anything is possible.
Yeah, so when we're looking at the landscape of what could go wrong, the Indies could break significantly for Kamala.We could see, because especially in a state like Arizona, we're seeing a lot of Indies.
We're actually seeing more Indies than we were anticipating.
yeah thankfully it's a small it's still a small yes no small volume they were so far behind in the early well and there's there's an argument to be made that they're gonna break fifty fifty or even maybe there's a lot of working class in these of course and I would say that there's you know the the the
mood of the country is different, so you can't base everything off of what happened in 2020.
You could see more women breaking their family unit vote and essentially lying to their husbands, or maybe they're not lying, they're just telling their husbands they're going to vote a certain way.
So these are the things we're looking for, and we're going to keep an eye on these urban cores to see if they pick up.But the fact that they are depressed and enthusiasm is down, and there is an enthusiasm gap,
You also have to sort of wonder, Charlie, in a place like Pennsylvania, a place where Joe Biden had extensive ties politically, will that same machine that the Democrats have been running, is it going to come out the same way for Kamala?
And I think that's an open question.And right now, we're not seeing indications that they're going to be doing what they need to.
Yeah, look, right now, Atlanta is... I'm not gonna make any predictions, but Georgia looks good.I'm just gonna say that was one thing.I have almost no attachment to that state, so I can say... I mean, we have a couple staff, but nothing significant.
Yeah, we have significant staff.
but yet the i'm not nothing i don't like arizona or wisconsin it's not like a platoon right yeah so in north carolina has gotten was no attention by the way i think i think it north carolina slip and actually asked even what he's looking away from them yeah yeah i i think we're gonna win north carolina but i don't even wanna i don't wanna make a prediction guys the thing is is that in
four hours five hours annuals actually have an idea what's going on all that matters is you guys need to go empty your phone right now in text every human being that's not a lip text every non live in your phone have you voted have you voted to ask for proof of vote have you voted have you voted to be voted to be voted to be voted
That's it.And I want to hear from you guys.And get the app.Get the Turning Point Action app, guys.Look, in Arizona we have like five hours left of voting.That's a lot of time.So email us freedom at charliekirk.com.That's freedom at charliekirk.com.
I want to hear from you of your voting experience and how you are bringing first-time voters to the polls.It is so incredibly important.Reminder, we'll be signing hats literally all night.
If you become a member, members.charliekirk.com to get your signed hat.That is members.charliekirk.com. And again, stay in line.If you are in line, they must allow you to vote if you are in line.Stay in line.
And look, so we are going to be back in about two hours.So we're going to take a couple hours to recharge, refresh, allow everyone... Are you guys watching the stream?
After we're done in about 30 seconds, go text every single one of your friends, right?Now's the time to do that.And we'll be back in two hours with...
One quite one of the most important couple hours of my 12 years one warning from rich is rich is saying don't Don't pay too much attention to the exit polls even if they're good.Just ignore them.
Yeah, they're white noise Come out of around 3 Eastern all right I want to hear from you if you have voted for the first time I want to hear from you if you're getting first-time voters bring other people to the polls make as much noise as possible This thing is gonna be really tight everybody.
It's gonna be really close the work You do in the next couple hours could determine it Stay in line.Thanks so much for listening everybody.Email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com.Thanks so much for listening and God bless.
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