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Go to blackoutcoffee.com and use the promo code PDB for 20% off your first time purchase. It's Friday, 1 November.Well, would you look at that?We've made it to a brand new month.Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage.All right, let's get briefed.
We're starting today's show with a new report from Israeli intelligence that claims Iran is preparing to carry out another major attack on Israel, possibly before the U.S.presidential elections on 5 November.We'll have the developing details on that.
Later, Vladimir Putin, remember him?He's shaking up his military leadership with reports that at least 10 generals have been arrested in recent months on fraud and corruption charges.Fraud and corruption within the Russian military.
Who would have thought it?Plus, North Korea just set a new record with its longest ever ballistic missile flight.A missile said to be more agile and reportedly capable of reaching the US mainland. And in today's back of the brief, U.S.
Northern Command reports hundreds of unauthorized drone incursions over military sites across the country in recent years, posing, of course, potential security risks.Yeah, that would make sense.
Is it just me or wouldn't it make sense to shoot down any unauthorized drones that are flying over sensitive sites?But first, today's PDB Spotlight.
According to a report by Axios, Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran is preparing a massive retaliatory attack on Israel in the coming days, possibly before the U.S.presidential election, set, of course, for 5 November.
Unlike the previous strikes, which hailed from Iranian territory, this one is expected to come from Iraqi territory.
That means it's likely to be carried out by Iranian proxy groups, including Iraq's militias, using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles.
That is, after all, why the Iranian regime has spent all these years and money and effort to build their various proxy groups, so that they could strike at Israel without drawing return fire directly onto the Iranian regime itself.
Although at this stage, following two separate direct attacks on Iran by Israel in retaliation, the regime's concept of hiding behind their proxies might be wearing thin.
Along those lines, Axios is reporting that carrying out the attack through pro-Iran militias in Iraq could be an attempt by Tehran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.
Meanwhile, two separate rocket barrages fired from Lebanon killed seven people in northern Israel on Thursday, hitting agricultural areas along the border.
So much for the cautious optimism over possible ceasefire discussions between Israel and Hezbollah.
According to the IDF, Hezbollah fired dozens of projectiles into Israel's north throughout the day, targeting the Golan Heights and other parts of northern Israel, including areas surrounding the major port city of Haifa.
An Israeli farmer and four foreign agricultural workers were killed when rockets landed near Metula, that's a town on the border with Lebanon.
Later, paramedics reported that a woman in her 60s and a man around 30 were killed near Kibbutz Afek on the outskirts of Haifa.
The back-to-back attacks represent the deadliest spate of strikes from Lebanon since the Israeli military invaded the country earlier this month.Now, the deaths bring the total number of Israeli civilians killed in the conflict with Hezbollah to 39.
Meanwhile, the IDF announced that the deputy commander of Hezbollah's elite Radwan force was killed in an airstrike earlier this week.
According to the military, Mustafa Ahmad Shahadi was killed in a strike carried out by fighter jets in southern Lebanon.The IDF said in a statement that Shahadi advanced numerous terror attacks against the State of Israel
And his elimination is, quote, part of the effort to degrade Hezbollah's Radwan forces capabilities to direct and execute terror activities against IDF troops and communities in the northern border.
Now, one such terrorist plot, referred to by Hezbollah as the conquest of the Galilee plan, was an October 7 style massacre that Hezbollah had planned to carry out, but ultimately was unable to launch.
The surge in violence comes just as Lebanon's acting prime minister expressed some guarded optimism about a potential ceasefire deal being on the horizon.
Yesterday, we highlighted a draft agreement released by Israel's public broadcaster that builds on a UN Security Council resolution from the aftermath of the 2006 Lebanon war, Israel's last major showdown with Hezbollah.
The proposal would require Hezbollah to withdraw its forces to the north of the Latani River in southern Lebanon.And that's a move aimed at creating a more secure buffer zone near Israel's border.
All right, coming up next, Vladimir Putin purges his top military ranks with 10 generals arrested on corruption charges.And North Korea tests its longest-range missile yet, reportedly capable of reaching the US mainland.
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Let's shift our focus to Russia, where a sweeping anti-corruption crackdown, at least that's what they're calling it, is targeting military and defense leaders, with arrests shaking Russian President Putin's inner circle and signaling a high-stakes power shift within the Kremlin on Wednesday.
Major General Alexander Ogloblin became the latest to be arrested and held in pretrial detention, accused of accepting bribes totaling some $103,000 from a telecom manufacturer to secure defense ministry contracts.
And that's according to Russia's investigative committee. Oglobalin's arrest is part of a broader sweep aimed at rooting out corruption within Russia's Ministry of Defense.
His detention sparked discussions on political loyalty and accountability among Russia's military elite, with some observers drawing parallels to Soviet-era purges.
Now, Oglobalin had been sentenced previously to four and a half years for embezzlement.And that was back in February of 2022 on separate charges.
But he was released early after testifying against his former superior, Vadim Shamarin, now the deputy chief of Russia's general staff.
In a twist, O'Globelin's second arrest followed Shamarin's testimony against him, according to Russian newspaper Kommersant.Guess it comes down to which corrupt Russian general you're going to believe.It's sort of a he said, he said situation.
According to the report, Shamarin accepted kickbacks from a telecom manufacturer, later splitting the bribe with a globulin.
As part of a plea deal, Shamarin disclosed this information, which news source, New Voice of Ukraine, suggests may have been driven by a desire for revenge against his former subordinate.No, you think so?
That same Wednesday, the British Ministry of Defence noted Ogloblin's arrest as a sign of Russia's increased scrutiny on current and former defence officials appointed by former Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, now the Security Council Secretary.
According to John Foreman, a former British Defence Attaché, the FSB, Russia's intelligence agency, has been, in his words, quote, slowly but steadily working through corruption cases within the Defence Ministry.
Foreman hints this crackdown could eventually target Sergei Shoigu himself, noting that Shoigu, nearing 70 years old, might soon be expendable to Putin.
Foreman stated, quote, next year might be a convenient time for Putin to thank him for his service, end quote.
In just five months, at least 10 generals and senior defense ministry officials connected to Shoigu have been detained or prosecuted on fraud and corruption charges.
Notably, in September, the investigative committee arrested Russia's deputy commander of the Leningrad Military District for allegedly accepting a $203,000 bribe tied to uniform supply contracts.
Just days earlier, General Pavel Popov, former deputy defense minister, was arrested on charges of fraud related to the construction of a Kremlin-backed patriotic project.
Investigators revealed Popov owns luxury properties, oh do tell, valued at over five million dollars, exposing a lifestyle far beyond his government salary.The investigative committee initiated these arrests following Putin's re-election.
and the May appointment, of course, of Andrei Belousov as the new defense minister.Known for his integrity, but lacking military experience, meaning he has none, Belousov appears tasked with a clear mission, eliminate corruption within the ministry.
Now, this crackdown, labeled a, quote, purge by Russian military-focused telegram channels, suggests a potential power shift, as Belousov seeks to dismantle corruption within the ranks, or consolidate his own power, or both.
Shoigu's potential downfall mirrors the political trajectory of Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's former President and Prime Minister, whose influence waned as his associates faced corruption charges.
Shoigu possibly appears poised for a similar fate, remaining silent as his once-powerful network unravels under anti-corruption scrutiny as the Kremlin recalibrates its inner circle.
Now, whether it's Putin or China's Xi Jinping, anti-corruption drives tend to be the favored vehicle of autocratic leaders when tightening their grip on power and purging those whose loyalty may be in question.
All right, turning to North Korea, leader Kim Jong-un ordered a bold escalation Thursday, authorizing an intercontinental ballistic missile in the ICBM launch, marking its longest ever recorded flight time and within potential striking distance of the U.S.
The ICBM launch near Pyongyang is North Korea's first since December, remaining airborne for 86 minutes, which is 13 minutes longer than its previous record.
This ICBM launch appears to signal Pyongyang's interest in capturing the attention of the U.S.just days before the presidential election.And this is not atypical for Kim Jong-un.
He has a habit of launching a missile anytime he feels ignored or disrespected. This particular launch, this missile traveled about 620 miles before landing in the Sea of Japan, reaching a peak altitude of some 4,350 miles.
It's important to note that although fired at a high angle, the missile's potential range suggests that it could reach Anchorage, Alaska.While Thursday's test posed no immediate threat to the U.S.
or its allies, it underscores North Korea's advancing missile capabilities. At the launch, Kim described the missile test as, quote, an appropriate military action against adversaries that he claims pose direct threats to North Korea.
According to North Korea's defense ministry, Kim added that the test was a warning to the regime's rivals and the test exceeded the characteristics of previous launches.
Now, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff identified the weapon as a new solid-fueled ICBM, a potential advancement in Pyongyang's arsenal.
Solid-fueled missiles are quicker to launch and harder to detect than their liquid-fueled counterparts, making them a more formidable threat.
South Korean intelligence also reports that the missile was launched from a massive 12-axle vehicle, the largest of its kind in North Korea, fueling speculation that Pyongyang could be developing even larger ICBMs.
Japanese Defense Minister General Nakatani echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the missile's record-breaking flight duration indicates Pyongyang's progress in ICBM technology.However,
Analysts note the regime faces technical hurdles, particularly in re-entry technology needed for a nuclear strike on the U.S.mainland.The timing of the launch is seen as strategic.
South Korean military spokesman Lee Sung-joon suggested the ICBM test just before the presidential election likely is aimed to bolster North Korea's negotiating leverage.
In an urgent response, the foreign ministers of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan held a call issuing a joint statement urging North Korea to halt its, quote, provocative and destabilizing actions.Well, that should do it.The U.S.
Indo-Pacific Command condemned the test as, quote, unlawful, while White House National Security Council spokesman Sean Savitt stated the test was, quote, a flagrant violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.Well, OK.
North Korea has yet to meet a UN resolution that it's not willing to flagrantly violate.I mean, it's their signature move. South Korean intelligence suggests additional ICBM tests and potentially a seventh nuclear test may be forthcoming.
This escalating military posture heightens tensions, of course, on the Korean peninsula and raises concerns over North Korea's advancing ICBM capabilities and readiness, particularly given their increasing cooperation with Russia, which undoubtedly includes weapons technology transfer from Moscow to Pyongyang.
Okay, up next in the back of the brief, U.S.Northern Command reports hundreds of unauthorized drone incursions at military sites across the country.Well, that's not good.I'll have the details when we return.
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In today's back of the brief, reports of hundreds of unauthorized drone flights over U.S.military bases on American soil heighten Pentagon security concerns.But the true extent of these incursions remains unknown.
The Defense Department has been particularly alarmed by incursions near sensitive Pentagon installations like Langley Air Force Base, home to the Air Force's F-22 fighter jets, previously reported by the Wall Street Journal.
While Northern American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD, data shows unmanned aircraft systems, which are known as UAS sightings, decreasing slightly over the past few years from 250 in 2022 to 202 in 2023 and so far 163 in 2024.
Look at me toss all those numbers out at you.The trend isn't entirely reassuring. New detection systems are likely increasing awareness of drone activity, suggesting that many past events may have slipped under the radar, literally.
General Gregory Geale, the commander of U.S.
Northern Command, NORTHCOM, and NORAD, speculates that while most are likely the work of local hobbyists, that's quite the hobby, the proximity to classified programs has spurred speculation about foreign surveillance.
Well, there's a thought, and it's probably a safe bet, despite the clear risks posed by unauthorized drones.
Regulations governing domestic airspace prevent military personnel, now this is interesting, from employing stronger countermeasures, such as shooting down potential threats. Yes, well, that's what you want.
You want a regulatory environment that prevents the military from shooting down unauthorized, unidentified aerial systems over sensitive sites.Yes, that makes perfect sense.
Guyot stated, quote, the threat and the need to counter these threats is growing faster than the policies and procedures that are in place can keep up with. End quote, really.It doesn't seem like a complicated fix.
Just change the regulations so that any drone flying over restricted government or military airspace becomes fair game.There, I fixed it for you.
GEO envisions NORTHCOM as the, quote, lead synchronizer in counter-UAS efforts, exploring the utilization of GPS jamming and spoofing to disable unwanted drones.However, GPS interference is tricky.
It could disrupt civilian travel if not implemented with precision.Well, then, you should implement it with precision.
By collaborating closely with the Federal Aviation Administration, NORTHCOM could establish preset permissions to engage drones in high-risk scenarios, reducing response times from days to hours.That still doesn't seem appropriate.
How about you reduce it from hours to, I don't know, minutes, maybe seconds?
While the Pentagon has improved its ability to monitor large drones, smaller systems, classified as Group 1 and 2, are often harder to track because they blend into airspace clutter. For background, the Pentagon classifies drones into five groups.
The first group is the smallest.Now, you follow me on this one.And the fifth group is the largest.The challenge isn't solely in identifying these smaller drones, but in distinguishing them from other aerial activities like, well, civilian airliners.
Yes, it would be important to make that distinction, which can cause confusion and duplicate sightings among personnel. Well, on that note, that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday, 1 November.
If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com.And to listen to the show ad-free, become a Premium Member of the President's Daily Brief by simply visiting pdbpremium.com.
Now, I'm sure you noticed that today is Friday, and no doubt you've marked on your calendars that Fridays mean new episodes of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report.This weekend's episode debuts this evening at 10 p.m.
as always on The First TV.It's also available, of course, on our YouTube channel.You can find that at President's Daily Brief and, of course, again, all podcast platforms.
Our guests include the excellent Ryan Macbeth, intel analyst and weapons expert extraordinaire, and the always informed and interesting Art Arthur from the Center for Immigration Studies.Tune in and learn stuff.I'm Mike Baker.
I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin.Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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