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Oh yeah, what's going on everybody?Happy Thursday night.Whenever you're listening to this, we are talking some UFC fight night.Apex, back in the Apex, 12 fights.12 fights isn't bad, but we had 13.
We were talking about pre-show Garbrandt, Myles Johns, no longer on the card.13, much better than 12, but. 12 is my magic number.We'll get into the slate.I think it is very interesting for DFS.
We've definitely been spoiled the past two weeks though, with two five rounders in both only a one this time, but how's it going?Big Marley.How's your day going?
Good.Yeah.Got a good football game on.I've got a decent card here the week before John Jones fights again.So yeah, hopefully it's a good profitable card. Yeah, it's definitely a tricky one.We lost the fight.
And then now we also have, uh, one of the biggest favorites priced as an underdog too.So I don't know.We'll talk it out.I think there's a couple of fights that are, I don't really have strong leans on, but I don't know that there'll be important.
Then there's a couple of fights that I want to target heavily.I don't think we have to be all in on the main event, so I don't know.Let's talk it out.I'm excited to, uh, to bounce some ideas off you.
Is the biggest favorite on the card.Again, I wrote this on Tuesday or the closest line fight I should say says minus 155 here right now.I actually believe it's minus 175 is the closest line fight of all 12.
Well, that's insane.I was on mute that whole time and I was not.
You just went on mute as you're talking.Okay.
Okay, good.So if you notice a lot of big favorites, mine is seven 50 minus 500 minus three 50 minus three 75 minus seven 50.So many big favorites.
So what that means for me is obviously you're forced into stars and scrubs for roster construction because there's only three fighters in the mid tier, one fight.And then Zaleski dos Santos was big Marley mentioned. 8K facing a $6,700 fighter.
Short notice replacement.It was supposed to be Nicholas Dalby was actually really excited for that fight.Dos Santos was a slight dog.Now biggest favorite on the card at only 8K.And the fight is expected to finish.
We only have under two and a half props, so it's going to be Dos Santos, Stars and Scrubs.And there's so many people in the 9Ks that are similar when we go talk about him.I'm going to be mixing and matching.I'm naturally going to be under on Pratas.
I don't like Magni, so I'm definitely not going to be on the main event as heavy this week.But that's my broad slate overviews.Anything you want to add to that?Or should we just start for the first five?
Yeah, I think you might have already answered one of my questions.So yeah, let's, let's rock and roll.
Let's do it.I love it.First fight of the night.Again, going through the stone MMA, the stone, we have it for all sports, all these sports going on right now.
PGA swing season, all of it, except MLB chip in nation.com, NBA 15, the promo code, no better spot to be get in the discord.One of the closest line fights to start it off right away.
Trey, Sean Gore taking on Antonio Tricoli minus one 70 Trey, Sean Gore plus one 45. Tricoli, minus 170 for this fight to finish.Gore, plus 150 inside the distance.Tricoli, plus 225.Interesting spot to start.Yeah, take it away.
I have just one other thing I wanna mention.Finish, finish, finish, finish, finish, finish, finish.We do have a decent amount of projected finishes on this card, but it's also somewhere I expect to go the distance as well.
So it makes it, I will say, I'll tip my hand, really clear what my strategy is.I'm targeting fights, expected to finish.I think this is an interesting one to start.How do you see it?
Yeah, I think so too.I'm cool with both sides of this fight.Uh, truck Lee, just not a guy we can really trust.He hasn't won a fight in years.Um, he used to fight a lot heavier too, been on some special supplements in the past.
Um, so I really don't trust him, especially the longer any fight goes at this point.So I think, A decision favors Gore, a striking match.Probably favors Gore.I think Gore's more alive for a knockout as well.
I think he's got the better hands, more powerful hands, but if Chicago is able to have success in this fight, I think it's going to come through the ground and more so early in the fight.
I do think he's live for a first round finish, maybe an early second round finish. the longer it goes though, the harder it's going to be for him to have a wrestling heavy game plan.
Um, so I think it's just a boom or bust play that I like to target on the Chicago side.He might even be my preferred play for that reason. But just pick wise, I think I'm gonna go with Gore.
I trust him a little bit more and if he can stuff the takedowns, I think he either wins a TKO or he takes two or all three rounds on the scorecards with the striking match.
So, uh, I want Gore exposure too, but I just like other favorites more than him, where I think Tricali is one of the higher stealing underdogs on the card.So probably Tricali is my preferred play.
I like it.I was trying to think of something for Dan Robinson, longtime watcher, first time catching a live, any chance we were giving away a monthly subscription tonight.We weren't, but hey, I'll give you a little proposition.
I'll give you a one in four chance.I'm thinking of. Actually, I'll have Big Marley put in our private chat right here, Big Marley.Pick one fighter of Protest, Neil Maney, Denise E. Gomes, Carolee Nikolakevich, put it in our private chat.
It's just completely random.It means absolutely nothing.I'm giving them a 25% chance for a free monthly subscription.So you message me a private chat, Big Marley, so we know it's live.Dan, you pick one of those four fighters.
If you get it right, you'll get a monthly subscription.We appreciate it.How about that? I don't really have much more to add, though.My preferred play is Dracoli.And the reason is, is I hate underdogs on this card.I'm picking almost all favorites.
I'm not stacking any fights.I do think dogs come through.But these price savings are really important.1,000, that goes a long way for me on this card.
So in close fights that I think the dog's live, because I am fading some of the bigger dogs, I'm just naturally there on my preferred side.But obviously, I like some gore at plus 150. What's up, Ryan Cox?Sorry, I just did it for Dan.I just did it.
I know, I know.I feel bogus now, but hey, he got me.Long time watcher, first time live.He got it to my heart, so appreciate you, Ryan Cox.All right, let's see.Big Marley said, Protes.He said, let's go Gomes.
Pretty much one of the only four I want to play this week.Close, but no cigar.We appreciate you though, Dan.
Maybe I'll throw another one out there in the coming weeks if you can catch another one live come in here But hey, sometimes we do always on Sundays.We give out monthly subscriptions Now I feel bogus though, but I did give him a chance.
I think my life you can maybe think of something Maybe we can give another but alright, let's get to the next fight on the card Cortevious Romeo's taking on Gaston Bellano's Cortevious or this fights minus 220 to finish Cortevious plus 105 inside the distance and
Bono's plus 255.And my question to you is, is it just so obvious striker versus grappler is, uh, Cortevia is going to wrestle from the get go.Cause Bono's is a good striker.The odds of this one.Very interesting as well.
Cortevia is open minus five 50 all the way down to minus two 20 in this one.So line movement on the ball, uh, Bono side, he is a solid striker. But man, I mean, what Aaron Phillips was taking dude down, like he looks like just a striker.
And I don't even know, to be honest, is he the better striker seems to be what he needs to do is keep it on the feet to win though.Inside the distance prop though.
And his price tag naturally will have me probably more on him as my preferred play, because as we move up the card, I'm not going to like many of these dogs.So that's how I see it.I hope you're on.I hope you can talk me into some gas down as well.
Yeah, I'm cool with it, but this is another one where I'm just okay with either side of the fight.I do think that, uh, Cortevious is going to be the better wrestler, better grappler in this one.
And then Bolanos, I do think he's probably the better striker probably has a little bit more.I mean, they both got power in their hands, but I would trust Bolanos a little bit more over the course of 15 minutes.
And I feel like he would have more around three power. Um, so I'm cool with either side, but I do think it's going to be hard for Bolanos to score well in a decision when, especially if he's not going for any takedowns.
So I think that, uh, Cortavius just has more ways to score.Well, he could swing some heavies, get a knockout on the feet.Um, he's also got a submission game too, so he can score well with that.But I think if anyone's going to land.
Three to eight takedowns in this fight.
It's gonna be Cortavius I don't really think he's got that in him and I didn't really think he was a great wrestler from what I saw But he is just more willing to to wrestle and he likes to grapple as well So I'm gonna pick Cortavius to get the win but Bilanos another solid underdog who I'll be getting lineups with
Yeah, so I'm glad you mentioned the takedown stuff.You don't think like three to eight, because his sub prop, open plus 190, now plus 165, lost twice by sub.
That feels like the path, but if you don't think his wrestling's that great and you don't see that much takedown upside, I'm still gonna play some.The thing is, like a first round sub, what's he in round one?Plus 325. open plus 350.
Like that's not bad at all.So you could drop down, protest down to town to him, leave a thousand.And that's the way you get different.Eat those Santos chalk, stuff like that.He has that type of upside, but I do need dogs in this car.
Now, what I want to ask you big Marley is, I don't know, like, we're going to get fight by fight, but I don't love many dogs.I don't know if you do.
And I'm thinking with so many big favorites and only 12 fights, what if only one dog wins and it is Gaston, even if it's a decision and scored 65, 70, 75, I'm doing that as that could be enough this week.I'm not really chasing for ceiling down there.
Definitely.I'm in the nine K range.Any thoughts on that?
Um, I mean, yeah, I do think this could be a card where one dog wins.I think I only picked. I want to say maybe two on the card and it is the odds that talked me into it's not that I have a great feeling about any underdog on this card.
So yeah, I think just picking any underdog that you think is live. Uh, is viable on this card, but Blanos also has first round knockout upside too.I think he, he's got some heavy hands.I don't, I just don't trust Cortevious really.So I don't know.
I think it's like, uh, it should be lined a little bit closer than it is in my opinion.It's just that the knockouts really the only way for him to have any real ceiling in my opinion.Um, but I don't know.
He's, he's allowed to win 65 could maybe cut it.
Yeah, again, I don't want 65, but I just want, if you tell me right now, anyone, a dog would win, I would be way overweight to the field for sure.Yeah, you bet, Dan.You bet.Anthony, what's going on?G Kiefer.
GK Pfeiffer, the absolute man, winning 50K last week on his best.Shout out to you.Always watching.11 bucks, I believe it was, to like $53,000.11 touchdown parlay, I think, or something.Yeah, shout out.Shout out, GK Pfeiffer, the absolute man. are a
Fight odds on BetOnline has these odds weird.This says minus 260, plus 215, plus 160 for this fight to finish.Mullen's plus 275 inside the distance.Sigula, plus 600.Are you laughing?I might be put, or eight like TD Parlay.Yeah, that's awesome.
So I don't think, obviously this fight's favored to go the distance, but we're gonna have very low ownership on this fight.Let's look. 15% on the Mullins side, which is the lowest, one of the lowest on the card, definitely lowest up top.
And Segulo, we have pretty low owned as well.On a card that I'm gonna be eating chalk in Dos Santos, that I know I'm gonna be mixing in the Montserrat Abduls, the Jillian Robertson, Sampratas, like Ritter, I'm gonna eat chalk on this card.
I'm not gonna play Neil Magny, I'm not gonna play Scrogan, even though, wow, we have Neil Magny pretty high. Anyway, long story short, I need to get different in some spots.I'm going to play some Mullins, surely game theory wise.
I think it's a card I need to get different in chalky teams, but plus 260 inside the distance isn't terrible.Can you talk me into like, do you think either of these guys or girls have upside or it's strictly just, I think I just answered my question.
Yeah, there's a two star, so you really don't like it, but I'm playing it for game theory ownership.That's what I'll say.It's probably the lowest owned fight on the card.What are your thoughts?
if Neither one of them has any upside, but I do think Saigula is live in that case.She's younger.I think she's faster as well.I could really see the striking being close.
I think Mullins is the better, more crisp striker, but Saigula could win on volume alone just by being the faster striker.So I think Saigula is kind of more a play for me.Like Bolanos is a play for you.
I think Saigula is live to get a win, but maybe a five point win.Yeah.So it's like, give me could make a case for both of them being in the optimal lineup.So I threw it at two star.
I doubt I X them out, but if I was going to make like 10 lineups and I'll make it, I'm on the ship to miser should go ahead and X's fight out, look for better ways, have more of a sweat, um, with like real sweat equity instead.
Yeah, yeah, it really depends, like, your ultimate goal.
Like, I'm playing it in jockey lineups, because I want to try and dupe with as less people as possible, but if you're only making a couple lineups and you just want more chance of sweat equity, like Big Marley's saying, this fight more than likely busts early.
That's why the ownership's low, so.But yeah, I'm playing Segura, Bolaños, Tricoli.Like, I, like, earlier in the card, I lean the dogs, and then later in the card, I lean the favorites. That's just how it came to me.So we'll keep it rolling.
Nate D, what's going on?Hope you're doing well.Let's keep it rolling too.Pretty solid real life fight.Interesting for DFS.Again, not one you have ranked really high, as you can see on the stone.The mound, Blackshear taking on Cody Stamen.
Minus 260, Blackshear.Plus 220 is Stamen.Plus 250 for this fight to finish.We have Blackshear plus 285 inside the distance, Stamen.Plus 900. Blackshear looks pretty low on in the upper tier.
And when you look at it, plus 285 inside the distance isn't bad.My question to you.So we look ownership's low on this fight.It's one of the most likely to go the distance on the card.
But when you go to the stone, you see both average over two takedowns per 15 minutes, both over four significant strikes.Blackshear four inch height advantage, eight inch reach advantage.Pretty interesting right there.
So can you talk yourself into any of this fight at pretty low ownership?And then I guess, do you like this fight or the last fight more if you had to pick?
This fight or the last, oh man.I guess this fight because they are both Just better wrestlers than the other fight.Uh, Stamens, pretty solid wrestler.
He just doesn't wrestle enough anymore that I think he has like a type of ceiling that I thought he used to have anyways.And then I also don't think that like Blackshear is a guy you really want to wrestle against.
Blackshear is the better grappler in this one.He's more dangerous on the ground.So I feel like this could be one where the wrestling cancels out.We get a 15 minute striking match.I favor.
Black sheer in that as well and that's kind of why I put it as a two-star But like at their best then sure that black shares a good enough wrestler grappler This could be a four-star fight if I knew he was gonna go out there with a wrestling based
Approach to this fight.I just don't know that that's going to be the case.I also think stamens hard to take down It's not going to be real easy for black share to get it there when he wants to It's just that when he gets the fight to the ground.
I really like his grappling instead.He's just not a chain wrestler He's not a guy who I think is gonna ever get ten takedowns in a fight It's just that it could only take one for him and then he locks up a submission.So black shears my
Preferred play probably but it's it's another one where it's like, all right, if I need an underdog we got Damon He's only seventy three hundred dollars.
He's cheap He could go out there get four or five takedowns on this fight if he really wanted to So yeah, he's in play for me to haven't really loved any of these underdogs and that's kind of like the rest of the card It's gonna be similar to that.
So I have no strong underdog feelings.I'm just gonna be mixing them all into lineup seeing what fits I'll go more core heavy with the favorites and then just hope to toss in the right underdogs to get lucky.
Yeah, absolutely.Like the more we talk through this car, the more I'm liking it for DFS.And again, like I knew it would be pretty spread out. And, but your ownership makes like the bottom tier we have nobody.So obviously Zaleski is so popular.
We haven't met like 70% below him.Pricing wise, though, we have nobody above 25%.That is awesome.Like a couple of fighters up top.
We're going to get to ownership will condense around Pratas, Jillian, Robinson, Munsure a little bit, you know, the pivots up top, but all these dogs, like if you have strong leans on them, it's really easy to get overweight.
I just couldn't agree with more.I like, I couldn't have said it any better.Everything you said about that fight.I agree a hundred percent.My preferred plays Blackshear because you, I want, I think he's going to win.
I don't think Stamen who hasn't wrestled really lately is going to want to wrestle Blackshear or if he does, I think he can get caught.Stamen's best path is just striking, but I think Blackshear is probably better there.
And Blackshear, why I like it more is he can't get one take done.Like you said, it's grappling. is definitely better.First round, boom, right there, allows you to save money easier.So I'm picking Blackshear.
I'm going to play some stamen in my 20 entry, but I do prefer the other dogs that we talked about below because I think they're a little more alive at the end of the day.So that's how I see it.Agree with pretty much everything you said.
We will keep it rolling.Next fight, the only fight that's priced in the mid-tier.Charles Radke taking on Matthew Samuelsberger.Minus 170 Radke plus 145 is Samuelsberger.Minus 135 for this fight to finish.
Both Radke and Samuelsberger plus 215 inside the distance.So again, I've been saying this most weeks, but if you're new, reminder, I write these, type these out on Wednesday usually, so it was minus 155, 135.
Now you see minus 170 plus 145, so you see some line movement the past couple days, or just from yesterday on the RACI side.Another thing that stands out on the stone,
Height advantage for assembles burger reach advantage four inches and three inches that is but tail the tape isn't great Not the most volume not much wrestling upside, but it is expected to finish big Marley So all of that there was a lot of pros and cons and you have it ranked to three So I think that all makes a lot of sense Yeah, I really don't get the rad key Line movement in this one to be honest with you.
I don't know what like like where he's for sure better than Samuels Berger to give him like a over a 62% chance of winning this fight.I feel like everything's kind of a toss up.Um, Samuels Berger, in my opinion is the more dangerous striker early.
Samuels Berger has 10 knockdowns in the UFC in nine fights.Uh, I also think that Samuels Berger could be the better wrestler in this one.Uh, Samuels Berger also has more UFC experience against the better competition too.So.
I like seamless burger a little bit at plus 135.
So I'm probably gonna end up on him as a play He is my favorite underdog Like with win equity anyways, but I don't know how high his ceiling is if he doesn't get a knockout it's another one where I could see it being a 15-minute striking match seamless burger wins with
60 to 65 points something like that, but he does have first round knockout upside.He's got a hundred and ten hundred and twenty point upside So I'll be heavy on him.
I'm guessing he'll be one of my highest on underdogs on the card and then Radke I Don't really want too much of him at 8,500.I think if I get to him it's more just as a hedge because I have too much seamless burger so maybe I'll get like
10%, possibly 15% Radke, but I'll purposely be under the field to him over the field on seamless burger.
I love it because of the $800 savings.He was just naturally my preferred play.Again, I'm leaning that in fights that I think the dogs live.So I absolutely love it.
One thing I wanted to point out and then ask you though, you mentioned the wrestling, like, do you think there's outcomes?I mean, Sam was burger has
allowed multiple takedowns, like big numbers, seven, four, like Wells, Parsons, probably better wrestlers than Radke.Do you think that's possible?And the reason I asked what stands out, Radke opened by submission plus 850, now down to plus 550.
That's a pretty decent chunk of line movement.I do like looking at submission props sometimes to see, Does books think they have a lot of wrestling or they obviously correlate wrestling submission or submission props correlate to an extent?
I haven't checked underdog or anything to see if props, but any like three plus four plus take on upside on the Racky side and he dominates wrestling or no?
I'd be surprised.I mean, he had one official takedown against blood diamond.Yeah.
But he had nine minutes of control.
I don't know how much was against the fence or not, but I would think that the striking would have to be really going bad for him in the first round.
And then he just completely changes his game plan to a wrestling heavy approach for him to have that kind of upside.But no, I don't, I wouldn't think, um, like, I don't know that he would even have a two takedown prop.
I feel like it would be maybe one and a half or one.
I think you're probably right.For sure. Let's keep it going to the next fight on the card.And this is one of two fights that we have a five star makes a lot of sense.
You look at the stone minus 600 to finish second, most likely monster dual Malik taken on Dusko to Dorovich or minus four 57 months or plus three 57 to Dorovich minus 500 for this fight to finish up dual minus two 40 inside the distance to Dorovich plus 400 round one props in this fight.
Plus 100. for Abdul in round one, and then Todorovic plus 1,000.I mean, obviously, Abdul's a great play, hey?Expected to finish, plus 100 in round one, doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out.
The interesting side's obviously Todorovic, because with this fight so heavily to finish, Mansoor making his UFC debut, which is why you don't see, or yeah, this was a contender series fight, so I did, we do add that, but making his UFC debut,
has never been to a third round.So if he slows, Dusko has UFC experience.He is coming off a brutal knee injury in that Leroy Duncan fight, but Man, you get a lot of leverage at low ownership in a fight expected to finish.
I'm obviously going to be playing some new scope for those reasons, but I will say you see this line minus three 65, 300 yesterday.And what did I just read off?Minus four 57 plus three 57.He took almost a dollar overnight.
So that definitely does have me leaning monster side, even though the price difference, I think he probably wins probably round one.What do you see?
Yeah, this Malik, this Malik dude is violent, man.He is, he is dangerous.He's got solid wrestling early.He's got mean ground and pound.He throws heavy strikes on the feet.
Um, so he's got a big ceiling and it could come with a takedown and then ground and pound finish.It could come in the first one minute with a knockout on the feet. I think he has good enough wrestling to score well in the decision.
I don't know that he has good enough cardio to wrestle and score well in the decision though.Um, and I think that if. Um, what's the student's name?
Um, uh, to Dorovich, if he can weather an early storm and like a real storm and then tire Malik out, I think to Dorovich is live to get a late second or a third round finish.Um, he could even start to wrestle late himself if he wanted to.
So yeah, I'm going to be heavy on this fight in general.I was kind of thinking like maybe give me 60% Malik. 20 25 percent to Dorovich and that probably put me overweight to both sides of this fight That's the way I want to go about it.
I just want to be heavy on the fight as a whole Malik is my preferred play I think he probably finishes in the first round, but he's also gonna be super chalky too.
So let me get a bunch of him I'll hedge with to Dorovic and then let me get around 20% 15% of lineups just in case it's something like Malik dominates round one Todorovic wins round two and round three mostly on the feet and nobody scores.
Well, there's just so many ways I feel like this fight can go scoring wise but Malik is very dangerous early and I think this is a fight that the UFC probably wants him to win
Yeah, I agree with everything you said.I think this fight's more than likely optimal.Why I'm not making a rule to go 100% personally is the price.Just say he puts up 106.106 is great.Why can't Robertson score 110?Sopai score 110.Procter score 110.
greater 110 like i think there's i think the 9k range is absolutely loaded where even 106 and 9300 isn't guaranteed and that's why i'm not going to go 100 on any fight on this card if i did We'll get right into it.Perfect segue.
It would be this fight and it would be all in on this guy.Obviously very chalky.We have that 70% right now, 69 to be exact.Zaleski Dos Santos taking on Zachary Scrogan.Minus 750 Dos Santos plus 500 Scrogan.
Only prop I see right now under two and a half is minus 170.So I expect Zaleski Dos Santos to have a pretty nice inside the distance prop. I mean, big Marley, I guess the only thing to ask is, are you going to play any Scrogan?
Because we know he's the Celeste.He's the best play in the slate.I guess are you going to lock him?And that would answer the next question.If you say yes, five star one star.What is interesting though?He is undefeated.
He's fought cans, but Hey, four inches in height, one inches reach.He will be bigger, but it's a tall, tall task.How do you see it?
Yeah, I'll leave them in my pool, but. That's that's more like an MME pool if I'm making You know five to ten lineups by hand.He's not someone I'm clicking on and then I probably would go all in on
Dos Santos in that scenario, just with a limited number of lineups, let's just go all in.Cuz I do expect him just to be better everywhere.I wasn't really impressed with Scroggin.Once he got into top control, he looked pretty good.
But he's just fighting bums, and I just don't know that he's even gonna have that edge in this fight.I feel like Dos Santos is gonna be the better wrestler, better grappler.And I think-
That was the last ski on short notice.Like it's hard to see Scroggins going in there and bullying him.
That's true.Um, and yeah, I think Dos Santos has a big striking edge in this one.I thought, um, Scroggins defense was terrible.His offense wasn't really good either.So I just think easy DS it's all him.And this one, I want to be heavy on him, but I,
I just worry about like, about his game plan.If he's not going to wrestle and he doesn't get a knockout, he's probably not going to be crazy enough on the feet.I don't know.Yeah, no, I agree.
Maybe he will be a little bit extra crazy on the feet with short notice though.
I'm glad you said that.No, I'm glad you said that.You talked me out of it.Cause if it's no wrestling and it's just on the feet, like going all he's 70%.Like I'm fine playing.I know sometimes people talk about it.
I don't want to be even with the field.I want to make a stand.I'm fine being even with the field.Tambo says it pretty well.I think he expects to build better lineups with that person than the field.So naturally you're more overweight to good lineups.
I approach it the same way.I think that's good.So. If I'm 80% fine, if I'm 90% fine, if I'm 100% I like everything fine.But if I'm 70% also with 30% fight fades, I think you made it sound like that very well as possible.
Under two and a half being minus 175 isn't like crazy, crazy.So yeah, I think I wouldn't blame anyone for going all in.I honestly would rather go all in than play Scroggin, but I think I'm just gonna go like,
80% or whatever I get him that fade the other part and that's how I'll go about this fight any final thoughts Yeah, I don't know what I'm gonna do
Ownership wise but I agree with that if I had a hundred I'd be fine with that If this was a different card and I liked other underdogs more I'd be fine with 50% But that's just not the case on this card.
I need I need him in my lineups because I just don't like the underdogs So like let me mix him in with another one or maybe two underdogs on each lineup and that's how most of my lineup So look this week
For sure.Yeah, looking at like Sembles Burger is the obvious pivot.Like there's not really many mid-tier fights.You save 300.Any team you build, you go Sembles Burger, no Dos Santos.
You can definitely eat plenty of chalk, thinking out loud, stuff like that.Obviously, I have plenty of lineups.With them together is two of the best dogs on the card.Dogs priced like that on the card. Yeah, I mean, let's get to another great fight.
You had back-to-back five stars.Now what I'd love to see, and I could not agree more, four star, four star, four star, four star.A two right here, absolutely agree.
You also look at, though, what's interesting, big favorite, big favorite, big favorite, big favorite, big favorite.This is what I talked about.The story of the slates, big favorites, the ones at least down here are a little lower.
odds and I'll be targeting that and the later the fight I like a lot of the favorites so I don't like too many dogs so I tip my hand I'm gonna help have you try and help me which ones of these dogs are your favorite though
Doesn't look like Luana Pinheiro is, and I agree.Jillian Robertson is a big favorite.Minus 375.Pinheiro plus 310.Minus 225 for this fight to finish.Robertson minus 175.Inside the distance, Pinheiro plus 700.Man, do you love to see that?
Let's see what this... It was minus 180 yesterday, inside the distance, this fight.Now it's minus 225.Robertson was minus 135 at open. now minus 175 inside the distance.
Make it even better, she also averages 2.48 takedowns per 15 minutes, has won majority of her fights by submission.It all looks pretty good, man.
We got steam, we have a wrestler, a big favorite, one of the best plays on the card, but I mean, we talked about it.Look at all these people in the 9Ks.Good luck figuring out which one I will be mixing and matching.
Robertson, I think, very well might be my favorite though.How do you see this one?
Yeah, Robertson, give me all the Robertson.I Pinero is the better striker.Um, if she could stuff takedowns and maybe she has a chance in this one, but Robertson's just too good at knowing where she's good.
So she, even if the first few takedowns don't happen, she's going to keep going for him.And once she gets the fight to the ground, but now he's not going to be able to do a lot about it.And she's also going to be the one. struggling with cardio.
She'll be freaking out on the ground, trying to get back to her feet.And if she can't do it, she's going to slow down more and more.And Robertson's not going to slow down.
Roberts is going to be there for three rounds, heavy on top, or she's going to give us a mission.So yeah, I want a bunch of Robertson.She's one of my favorite plays on the card, but narrow, probably a full pass for me.I doubt I get there.
Um, if I make 150 lineups, I'd be fine with you know, in between five and 10%, but I wouldn't go over 10% and I'd be fine fading her with 152.
I love it.We couldn't agree more.She's not going to make my 20 entry pool. 150, yeah, I'd probably have a couple of sprinkles, but most play 20 teams or less.That's how I designed the slate plan.Again, I break down all the fights in the slate plan.
The tags are there, explain it.Big Barley has hit all his thoughts per fight and predictions.In the fight rankings, you get the sneak peek at his stats right here.But college football going on, no better team in the business.
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Keep it rolling to the next fight.A very similar fight to the last fight, in my opinion.Another pretty good one.Rene DeRitter taking on Gerald Mearschardt, minus 300.Ritter, plus 250 is Mearschardt, minus 165 for this fight to finish.
DeRitter, plus 110 inside the distance.Mearschardt, plus 350.Take it away.What do you see?Sorry, I caught you chewing.
This Ritter guy, he was like a double champ with one championship or something like that.Um, so when I went into this, I was expecting him to kind of be like a world beater.And I did, I think I was the most impressed with him.
You know, on the ground, I think his grappling was pretty good.He could be dominant and top control in some fights, but he was getting taken down in other fights.Uh, he is 12 and O to the submission where.
Mearshart has like 20 plus subs, but he's been submitted eight times.I believe so.
That's not great The striking I've heard people say that Ritter's gonna have a huge striking advantage in this fight I don't know that I saw that from the fights that I watched of him I was not really impressed with his striking and I feel like Mearshart is
can keep this fight close on the feet.Mearshardt's dangerous on the ground too.He could give him the first submission loss of his career.And if it's a 15 minute back and forth fight, I think Mearshardt's super alive in that.
So I would think that the line should be closer than it is. And either one of them could have a lot of grappling success success on this one So I'm gonna target the fight fairly heavily.
It could also kind of cancel out and we get a slow pace striking match That would really suck.I don't think either one of them are that dangerous on the feet But I think the sub on either side could come so I'll say that I Um, actually, I don't know.
I don't really have a preferred play in this one.If I'm floating around the nine K range, then I'll be putting river in my lineups.But if I need a punt underdog, mere sharks, probably my favorite cheapo on the card.
Yeah, I like it.I I'm going to be playing both of them.Uh, if I had to pick a preferred side, probably GM three, just cause savvy bet.I think he's live to K savings goes a long way.And like, I think I like Robertson more.
I think I like monster a little more if I had to pick, but we also have projected a little higher on and man, it's so, so close.
Like he has all the wrestling and grappling upside to, uh, according to the books, it's not often to see a guy have this much better of a submission prop over a guy like GM three, but GM three has been sub quite a bit, but I mean, the Ritter sub prop open plus two 15 now plus one 90.
That's a pretty big, big movement right there.So. I like it, I'll be playing both sides, good fight to target, minus 165 to finish.What's going on, Little Neck, you the man, hope everything's going well.
Everyone's the man that watches, or the woman, especially if you hit that like button and subscribe button.Helps us out a ton, bringing you these shows every single week. Keep rolling, Big Marley, a couple of fights left.
Bernardo Sopai taking on Ricky Tercios, plus 120, or Sopai minus 360.Tercios plus 285, plus 120 for this fight to finish.Sopai plus 170 inside the distance, Tercios plus 550 inside the distance. Interesting fight, slightly favored to go the distance.
And you're looking at ownership.Again, I already mentioned the lower tier, pretty much all spread out.Tertios is not going to be Pi-owned at all, pretty low-owned.
SoPi, he's not going to be low-owned, but we got Rene De Ritter higher-owned, Robertson higher-owned, Mansoor Abdul higher-owned, Pratas higher-owned.So, I mean, this fight's route or very fair ownership, slight favor to go the distance.
But Hey, looking at the stone right here, 3.06 takedowns.It is a small sample tertios, not too bad himself for the price.Last thing to note, pretty big reach and height advantage on the tertial side.So PI seven years younger though.
Yeah, I think so PI is the pick in this one. and Especially after kind of being taught that lesson.Hopefully the cardio isn't checking this one Turquoise does not have great takedown defense.
I think so PI could go out there and land eight takedowns in a Decision if he wanted to if the cardio was there and he could score 100 plus points, so I like so PI But at the same time I do worry about that cardio and then Turquoise is a
is a cardio machine, he's high volume, he's not very good anywhere, but he's just Got a high work rate and if so pies gonna slow down turkeys could really put on put it on them and have a pretty decent ceiling so Turquoise another punt.
I like him and mere mere shard will be cheapos that I'm clicking on in this fight but I just think that So pies better than him and if he doesn't slow down in this fight, I think he could win anywhere but his wrestling Is where he should win.
So give me so pie to put up a decent score.I like him and
I like it.I'm on the soap.I said side as well.I will play some tertios cause again, plus two or plus two 85.It's pretty big dog, but there's a lot of big dogs.And I do think if tertios wins, he probably scores.
Like he's always doing something except the zombie fight.That fight was awful.But I think so pie at least pushes the pace enough where some reversals may be scrambles.He ends up on top volume.I think if he wins,
Again, I'll take any win as a dog, but like I like his upside more than stamens down below.I like it more than.Probably Segula.Um, that's pretty close, but yeah, I'm going to be playing some tertios, but I think so PI wins the fight.
He's my preferred play in this one going to get to a fight.I do not like, and will be a fade for me in 20 entry and below.
Doesn't look like you like it much either with a two-star, but a big favorite and a very clear pivot fight if you want to get to it, especially Denisey Gomes, minus 500, Carolina Kolakiewicz, plus 385, plus 165 for this fight to finish.
I will say this fight opened plus 215.Oh, that's interesting.You know what, I'm gonna take this back. I might have to play some Denisey Gomes.This line movement is big.So it was plus 215 to finish now plus 165.
Gomes opened plus 210 inside the distance, now plus 165.That's some pretty significant line movement.Do you see it going that way, Big Marley?So I guess you might be the ultimate deciding factor.
I do think Gomes is alive to get a knockout in this fight.At lower ownership, I'm pretty cool with her and some lineups.I think she's a solid pivot away from Pratt ace I do think she's a little bit better.I Don't know about everywhere.
I think a 15-minute striking match could actually favor KK But aside from that just a 15-minute overall MMA fight gums is the better wrestler She's the more powerful fighter in this one.
If there's a knockdown it's gonna be her getting it if anyone's getting five plus takedowns It's probably her getting them
So I just think she is our minute winner Unless she just has a poor game plan and wants to spar with KK for 15 minutes That's what puts KK in play to win and then she could rack up enough volume to where she's scoring more than 10x In a decision win.
I just don't know how likely that is At this point in her career.She's kind of gonna be on the way out soon where gomes is the the young hungry lion, so I'm picking gomes to win I think most likely she wins and scores 80 points.
So I don't like her, but if you're eating all the dos Santos chalk, I think, uh, her over a protase is a decent move to take.And then maybe find one other way to get a little different too.But yeah, give me gums to win.
I like it.Yeah.I'm going to play some gums.I was initially going to fade in 20 and below, but even if I got 10%, like we have gums, I'm not going to say all the ownership, but I even think we might even be a little hot on go.
Yeah, I have a pretty high right now ownership of stuff I'm gonna I'm gonna revisit it tomorrow.
Yeah Yeah, gums probably give me like what 18%?Something around there.It's not low low plus 160 plus 165 though.
Yeah that live movement I Changes and updating the slate plan right now, so I'm gonna make I'm gonna keep her in the pool I think but if that changes again all the content always updated on the sites for the members and Last fight, main event time.
Talked a little bit about it.Carlos Pratas taking on Neil Magny.Tied for the biggest favorite on the card.Minus 750 is Pratas, plus 550 is Neil Magny.Most likely fight to finish, minus 800.Pratas minus 400.Neil Magny plus 550.
Neil Magny is a sitting duck. Carlos Prates is good, man.This dude's striking.His feints, he is fun, fun to watch.He is growing on me.Smoke Cigs?I mean, come on, what fighter be smoking Cigs like that and actually mauling dudes?
The thing is, and we talked about it earlier, yes, he is the highest priced, biggest favorite too.He has no wrestling upside, absolutely none.4.71 significant strikes per minute. If he doesn't get a first round knockout, second, could score 100.
100 might not be good enough.Probably isn't actually good enough.Third round, fourth round, et cetera.So he can win and not get there, and we've seen it.He also does have upside, and obviously has plenty of knockdown upside.
And the good thing about him is he doesn't go in when he gets a knockdown for the kill shot.Sometimes takes his time, other dude recovers, gets up, knocks his ass down again, as we've seen. He's just, my thought, we have that 50%.
The other fighters, I think, are lower owned and have damn near the same upside or more, I'll argue.Like, Robertson has more upside, I think, than Prates, due to the wrestling and just chaining takedowns, and she's cheaper.
So I'll probably end up underweight Prates at most 50%, but I mean, I'm really excited to see what he does in the UFC.He's a problem.
Yeah, I actually think I'm gonna go low on this fight.I don't think I want to go with any Magni.This is a fight set up for Protis to get his hand raised.Coming off an awesome performance where Magni's coming off a complete dud.
He's towards the end of his career.Where Protis looks like he could be a title contender.Really good striking.
dangerous as well just long striker accurate hits right where he wants to basically in that performance against Li Jingliang was just Like everyone was sold on it So that were that's why he is in this main event right here is because of how great he looked in that last fight Without that fight.
There's no way he would have been a minus 800 here and Um, and, and it's also like, he's a really good striker, but it takes him a while to get going.In my opinion, it's not like he just starts out.Uh, and he's dangerous right off the opening bell.
It's he, he kind of starts feeling himself.
Then that's when that's when it gets dangerous, but who knows how long it'll take I kind of think it'll be a little slow start here He also has a possible five rounds to work So I like protests over one and a half rounds on this one and that's probably not great for him at ninety six hundred dollars on DraftKings so at 50% ownership
Magni's getting a decent amount too for how cheap he is in my opinion I'm gonna go low on this fight and just get some exposure to the other guys in that 9k range instead I definitely like Robertson.
I definitely like Malik but getting away from protests will help me get to more of the So pie and the Ritter as well.Maybe a little golems as well, too.So I might Like ten lineups.
Maybe I even fade fade this fight and look to go to those other ones instead and hope that protests wins after the second round and scores 89 points.
I love it.Everything.I couldn't agree more.I'm going to have no Neil Magney.I probably would have none in 150 teams.I think he's going to get work, but practice really has to first round knockout, multiple knockdowns in second round.
What's it first round prop is plus 200. Like Malakai is, is better that you talked about monsters.So yeah, I don't love it.Plus 300 round two.That's, that's about as low as you almost ever see round two, really close to round one as well.
So, which makes sense.Like you said, can be a slow start starter when he starts touching his opponents, feeling himself GGs.I think Neil Magni going to have a big boy problem.Great stuff is always big Marley.
Any final thoughts you want to say to the people before we get on out of here?Appreciate every single one watching.
Now, hopefully it's a nice bankroll builder for the pay-per-view next week.Good luck to you, Tidal.Good luck to everybody listening.Let's ship it.
Let's ship it is right.Good luck.I'm in May, Saturday, right into free money, Sunday, nothing better.Best time of the year.Head over to ShippingNation.com.Join it, hit the like button, hit the subscribe button on the way out.Have a great weekend.
Be safe.From Big Marley, I'm Tidal Tom.Peace.
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