I do think we are heading to a bigger crisis than 2008.Bitcoin takes out 73.I agree with Max's numbers.I think we're easily going to be in the high 200s, then 6 to 12 months.The debt can't grow faster than the GDP.
Eventually the debt becomes unserviceable and we're in that process right now.There's going to come another moment that's going to look like March of 2020, what I call the big print.The system is broken and the government can never stop printing.
We're in the end stages of this Keynesian fiat expansion. Bitcoin is going to demonetize gold.This is just the Internet 2.0.
Arguably, it's even bigger and more important because the Internet was dealing with information and communication, which is damn important.This is dealing with money.This is dealing with a base layer, the thing that we all need.
I mean, you can live without the Internet, but you can't live without money.Eventually, you come to understand it and, you know, you end up where you are.You have 100% in it.
We can get these really wide swings on the way to it going to 10 million or it going to kind of infinity in dollar terms because nobody wants a dollar.The next three years are going to be really exciting for this space.
We've really got to get people using it.It has to become more of a medium of exchange.How the hell are they going to tax us to have the war?Well then how the hell are they going to have the war?
That's to me the greatest crime of the fiat currency era that we live in is the way that it's allowed these big corrupt governments to, you know, go kill people. What are nation-states for?
They arose to defend property and they arose to defend wealth.They arose to create privilege for the people at the top of them.Much flatter systems, I think, would be much better.
I don't think people fully understand the scale of what happened when the white paper was published.
Do you think is a global financial crisis inevitable?Is that something that is not anymore not possible?
Yeah, that's a great one.I do think we are heading to a bigger crisis than 2008.I don't know the timing of it.Nobody does.You know, the issue that we face that I've discussed many times and you're well aware of with all your guests is that
You know, the debt can't grow faster than the GDP.Eventually, the debt becomes unserviceable and we're in that process right now.
And so, you know, it generally is going to lead to some kind of a problem and it could manifest itself in a lot of different ways.But I think that what's likely to occur is that we're going to have
you know, the debt markets are gonna get sick, and they're gonna realize, you know, this is the process of Gresham's Law, right, when people realize that they can never stop printing money.
And the mathematics of the situation suggests that they have to keep printing money to keep the structure, the debt structure going, they have to keep pushing money into the system, they have to have the stock market go up, and to keep the bond market calm.
And if any of those things should change, and I suspect that they will, the stock market's at a record valuation by any measure, U.S.stock market,
then that would lead to serious financial dislocations, which I suppose, yeah, you could call it a crisis.And I think it could, arguably, I believe it probably can and will be bigger than the 08 crisis.But, you know, you also have many crises.
I mean, in March of, you know, 2023, you had, you know, Silicon Valley Bank blow up, and that could have triggered it, but it didn't.They put it back in the can, they developed a new program, they broke the law, you know, they violated Dodd-Frank.
you know, and they calmed everything down.And so, you know, I think you're going to see this rolling series of problems, one of which could be so large that they can't calm it down.
And then I conclude from that, that what that means is that there's going to come another moment that's going to look like March of 2020, where You know, it's what I call the big print.
They are going to be forced to just do everything necessary to keep the system from collapsing.And I think that's in Jay Powell's future, or if he makes it to March of 2026, you know, the next person's future.
But I think that's coming, if only because of the relentless, you know, behavior of the math, right?I mean, you know, U.S.interest expense is out of control. U.S.debt growth is out of control and history suggests that these things don't end well.
I mean, there are lots of other countries that have done this, none of which necessarily had the reserve currency, but they did the same kinds of things and it did not end well.
It's generally a very inflationary event or there's just an outright collapse.That's a long-winded answer to your question, but yeah, that's what I think is coming.I don't know when though.
But it's not, you cannot stop this.Like even if someone like an Austrian economics Bitcoin is coming to office as a president, they cannot stop this.
I don't think you can.I mean, you know, you can.I mean, some people say, well, that sounds very bleak, Larry.You know, gosh, what do we do?
You know, there is, I mean, look, these things, these monetary events, you know, sovereign debt crises, which is what this is, have been resolved in lots of different ways.
You can let them run to their end point and have hyperinflation or very, very high rates of inflation.I mean, high rates of inflation over and above. the existing interest rate might get it done.You could do a reset.
I mean, Roosevelt did that in the 30s.He grabbed the gold, reset it at a higher price.He effectively devalued the dollar, the thing that all the debt was denominated in.So you could do that.
I mean, there are structured and fairer ways to do this that I think would put us back into a sound system with less pain and the pain may be more evenly distributed throughout society.
but those would involve, you know, an intelligent and thoughtful leadership, you know, at the political level.And, you know, I don't think we have a lot of that right now.So, my sense is it's just going to continue until it can't continue anymore.
You know, if they were to balance the budget, I mean, and this would be hugely recessionary and hugely, you know, somewhat deflationary.But, you know, the way to keep the system going would be to balance the budget and try and cut back on expenses.
But it's so far gone that, you know, if they did that, you know, the price would be enormous and there'd be pain there too for just a different set of people. It's kind of like we've been drinking and we just can't avoid the hangover.
Somebody's going to take the pain and it's just a question of who and what's the fairest way to do it.I don't think the politicians really are even aware of the problem.
My sense is it's going to run to its natural conclusion, which is extremely high inflation and arguably a collapse.
I'm always interested in the point of where we know, okay, we are in a crisis because a lot of people say, oh, this is so bad.And the other people, oh, no, it's not that bad.
Like, when do we know for certain, like, oh, yeah, we are right now in crisis.Is inflation the one point?
Yeah, I think there are a lot of things.It's a great question.What are the metrics you look at? So we know something is wrong, you know, because the price of gold and the price of Bitcoin are at a record high.
The price of Bitcoin is bumping up against its old record high.And I think soon we'll break through it and go down to much higher highs.And so these two things are canaries in the coal mine that warn you that the monetary system is sick, you know.
you know, in theory, this should not be happening.I mean, they've diverged from real yields.
So, you know, real interest rates, you know, have gone in the, generally speaking, when real interest rates, you know, publish the rate up and raise real interest rates, that should have made gold and Bitcoin go down.It made them go sideways.
And now, you know, as he started to ease again, they're strongly going up.
So the other thing that's interesting that's happened recently is that the, you know, he cut the short-term rates, but the long end got away from him or is getting away from him.I mean, the 10-year yield has gone up substantially since his cut.
So, you know, what I think all this is, is there's a slightly different tone in the markets that is coming to realize what you and I have known and what many Bitcoiners have known for some time, which is that the, you know, the system is broken and the government can never stop printing.
This is Lynn's fabulous meme, you know, you can't stop this trade, right?I mean, it's baked in the cake.I mean, there are all kinds of data points.One data point is, you know, US federal interest expense, you know, it's up over 1.2 trillion run rate.
or the chart that showed the jump in the U.S.federal debt right after September 30.They closed the quarter and then added between $400 and $500 billion of debt in a matter of a week or two.
I mean, it's just everywhere you look, you see signs that things are breaking.
And then you've got extremely smart investment managers like Paul Tudor Jones, who's a self-made billionaire through investment management, saying, look, inflation is the escape valve, or inflation is the way out, and that's why I own gold, commodities, and Bitcoin.
And, you know, he's no dummy.Right.So I think that and but he wasn't on TV saying that two years ago.I mean, he was kind of supporting Bitcoin a couple years ago.And others are saying that Druckenmiller saying it, you know, Valerian is saying it.
Gunlock is saying it.I mean, even Jay Powell said it.Jay Powell said, you know, this deficit cannot go on forever.He's right.I was kind of shocked he said it, to be frank. It's kind of like, okay, so why are you enabling it?
But, you know, something's got to give, right?And so that really is the $64,000 question.What's going to give and when's it going to give?And none of us really know.
But I think what will inform us of when it's giving are the prices of the alternatives.
I mean, you can either decide you're going to hold your savings in fiat currencies, in debt, or to some degree in stocks, or you can say, I'm going to step out of that system and put my savings in something that can't be printed.
And the three things that naturally come to mind are Bitcoin, gold, and silver.And I think what's happening is there's more and more people who are coming to the choosing box number B. Okay, I get it.
I know what's going on and they're not going to fix it, so I better be over here. You know, it could get kind of crazy.
I mean, I think when Bitcoin takes out 73, I think this cycle, I agree with Max's numbers, I think we're easily going to be in the high 200s, you know, within 6 to 12 months.
So, and I don't think, you know, there are a lot of people saying gold is at 30 or 26, 2700 now.Obviously now it's going to go up to 2000.It's just, you know, it's just a spurt.It'll come back in.I strongly disagree.
I think gold's going to 3,000 or 4,000 on its way to much higher. for a variety of reasons.So those are the kind of the signposts that I think we should all be watching.The other one is the debt market.
I mean, if we continue to see the long debt rates, you know, interest rates go higher, that will mean that there are fewer buyers of the debt.
And I suspect, you know, all this at some point is going to create tight financial conditions that the Federal Reserve is going to have to create an excuse and react to.
And the reaction will be what they have always done in the past, which is they will cut interest rates and they will initiate QE and print money.
And then if it gets bad enough, they'll initiate yield curve control and say, we are going to hold these yields at this level.
And at that point in time, anybody in the world who doesn't understand that they can never stop printing, you know, it will be just completely brain dead.At that point in time, our stuff's going to go nuts.
And it'll be, to me, we're in the, you know, we're in the end stages of, you know, this great fiat, you know, Keynesian fiat experiment.But these end stages could still take a number of years.
I don't think this, it's not like we're going to hyper-bitcoinization next year.
I think we've got a bunch of, you know, we've got more swings back and forth, back and forth, back and forth, but one can see the long-term trend and it's pretty clearly in our favor.
Absolutely.And I think it's even, it would be kind of terrifying if we have hyper-Bitcoinization next year.That would also mean we have like a mass crisis.That's right.
Yeah.I mean, arguably we want this to kind of go slower over a longer period of time.I don't know.There are mixed schools of thought on that.I mean, one is like, let's just take the pain and get it over with.
Because I mean, I think all Bitcoiners would agree that when we get to the other side, when we get to the sound money side of the world and they can no longer mess around with us the way they've been doing for so many years,
the world will be a better place.I think we all agree on that.So one could argue, let's just get there.No matter what the pain, let's get there as quickly as possible.The flip of that is now people need time to adjust to the changes.
So let's take it slower.Look, I mean, it's going to take whatever pace it's going to take.
And my suspicion is based on looking at other fourth turnings in history that, you know, this doesn't get really resolved, fully resolved until the early 2030s, which is, you know, quite some time away, but not, you know, not lifetimes away.
It's, it's years away. But, but in between here and there, you know, our stuff's going to work.I mean, we're, we're on the right side of this.Right.
Absolutely.Yeah.I love the idea of Bitcoin being kind of the alarm bell or the kind of the, the, the scoreboard of how bad the fiat system actually is.Yeah.
I actually coined that term.He said, it's the only, it's the only working fire alarm.Cause they kind of suppressed gold was that gold used to be the fire alarm, but they really figured out how to suppress that.
That's a whole, that's a different five hour conversation, but. I mean, they learned in the 70s that if they let gold get away from them, it put a serious damper on people's enthusiasm for fiat.
So they subsequently put in place a number of systems that allowed them to kind of control gold, and it's been controlled for years.The math on that's pretty compelling.I lay this out in the book I'm doing.
If we went back to a gold standard like we had in 1971, you took the monetary base, you divide it by the ounces of gold the U.S.has, gold would have to be at $80,000 an ounce.So it gives you a sense of just how much money
has been printed between, you know, 71 and today, right?So I'm not suggesting gold's going there.It's not.
But what I'm pointing out is that when we were using gold as the monetary base, you know, you could take the monetary base divided by the ounces the U.S.held, you know, theoretically backed it, and come up with a $35 price.
You know, it's in the 50s and early 60s.It started to get away from them as the war ramped up in the 60s.And that's no longer the case.I mean, we've come a long way from that day.
A lot of people fear that the same thing is happening with Bitcoin.I have an interesting, funny story maybe.When I was in Amsterdam, I was eating a falafel the day before I came.
And I had a Bitcoin shirt on and the guy was asking me like, hey, what is this Bitcoin thing?And he was saying one small sentence that I was like, that's interesting that this is the public perception of a no-coiner.
And he said like, isn't BlackRock now the owner of Bitcoin?
Well, yeah, I mean, it's, yeah, I mean, as Stratify comes in, I mean, certainly, look, my view on the manipulation of Bitcoin is that it's not impossible, but I also believe it isn't happening to a large degree.I don't think it's likely.
A number of reasons that make it better than gold.One, you can see all the transactions on chain, so you can see the addresses too.So it's pretty hard to create paper Bitcoin.I mean, people have done it.I mean, Sam Bateman Freed did it.
and others have done it, and there are derivatives on it.As long as there are derivatives and futures on it, that's paper.
Theoretically, if those markets became enormous, if those markets became 100 times the size of the daily trading on-chain, that would be a different matter than maybe there'd be manipulation taking place.By the way, that's what's going on in gold.
The amount of gold that's traded on exchanges on a daily basis is multiple, huge multiples of the underlying amount that we mine in any given year. So it's a tail wagging the dog situation.But that's not the case in Bitcoin.
The futures and options are mild or small compared to the total outstanding and the total tradable.So the other thing about Bitcoin is, I mean, gold is easier to manipulate in the sense that gold has never gone up 5x in a 12-month period.
And so if you're going to manipulate something, you better be sure you have a printing press behind you so that when you get on the wrong side of the trade, you can print the money to cover your margin calls, right?
And that's kind of what I think they did in the various times when they attacked gold.
Because, you know, they'd attack it and they'd probably get underwater, but they could sit there long enough and just they had unlimited printing presence so they could suppress it.
You know, when something goes up 5x in a year, which Bitcoin did, you know, in the 2019-2020 area, you know, that creates one hell of a big hole.And
And by the way, you don't have, you know, you don't have a BIS, you don't have coordinated central bank actions.The central banks don't really even understand what Bitcoin is.
So while I'm sure they're all sitting there thinking, oh shit, you know, this is an alarm bell that we don't want to have going off.And it's possible they're even thinking, how are we going to figure this out and how are we going to suppress it?
It wouldn't tell me that they've got a working group working on that.I think that to think they've actually done it and got it in place and are ready to go with it.I'm skeptical.I don't see, I don't believe that's the case.
And I don't, I don't think they will in the future.I think this thing is going to move too quickly and it's going to overwhelm them.They had a long time, you know, to manipulate gold from 71 to present a lot of years.
And there were a lot of organizations and they knew where it was and it was, it was centralized.It was in central bank vaults.I mean, they could lie about what they had, et cetera, et cetera.I mean, this is a different animal, so.
I'm not too worried about it, but I, but I, I hear I'm sympathetic to the fear that it, you know, that it has, has, and could be manipulated.
And don't get me wrong, I mean, there will be people who will try to trade around it and push it in a certain direction.But my sense is they're going to get wrecked.
I mean, if you're short Bitcoin right here and the God candle arrives, if Samson says it's coming, I agree he's right, you could get wrecked really quickly.
And I mean, Caitlin thinks that there's a chance that some bank will be on the wrong side of the Bitcoin trade and a GSIB will get wrecked at some point.I don't know if she's right, but it could happen.
You don't want to be short an asset that can go up 100% or 200% in a matter of months.And this thing can do that, right?So it's a different animal.
It seems like also what we have now is the internet and social media and websites where you can make it really transparent.If there's like paper Bitcoin, you can make like really public if there's something wrong and not seeable.
I think that's right.And you're starting to see even, you know, like I really applaud Alex Leishman and River and what they're doing where they're allowing, you know, kind of proof of reserves.
I mean, it's, and one of the things I think is kind of a weakness.I think it's a weakness that so many people are custodian of Coinbase.I don't trust Coinbase.I just, and so, you know, The paper Bitcoin I own, it's not a lot.
It's only in IRA accounts.I can't really liberate very easily.I own Fidelity.Fidelity is one, because Fidelity does their own self-custody, and I trust Abby Johnson.But yeah, look, this is a new thing, and there are always issues and risks.
And guess what?We are going to probably be surprised.I mean, there will be things that we cannot foresee today that will occur that will surprise us. You know, that's the nature of something that's new.
I mean, I was involved in the internet way back when and I could never foresee what would become of it.
I mean, you know, the fact that Amazon would do what it did or even something like eBay that would just create, you know, an online, you know, flea shop, flea market.I mean, I just, it was stunning.And that'll be the case here too.
There'll be all kinds of things that will happen that we can't even foresee today. But the thing that's underlying it all, the reason why I'm so bullish on it is I just don't see any evidence that this is slowing down.
I mean, when people say, well, it's going to zero or it's not going to work, I'm like, well, show me the evidence.I mean, I always put it in the terms of
You know, Eugene Kleiner, who's a great venture capitalist, said, you know, are the dogs eating the food?The fact of the matter is the dogs are eating the food and there are more dogs every year and they're going after the same amount of food.
And guess what?You know, the price of the food is going up.So, you know, so it's, it's a good thing.
You also look, as I said before, Bitcoin, gold and silver.How do you look at those three moving forward if we have actually come to this financial crisis?
Yeah, so look, I mean, what I've always said is, I've always said that gold is analog sound money and Bitcoin is digital sound money. Silver is not even money anymore.I mean, it is, but it's been kind of demonetized by gold.
The silver-gold ratio is kind of amazing.However, silver is a very critical metal that's used in a lot of applications, so it's got kind of a dual role as somewhat of a monetary metal, but also an important industrial metal for solar and electronics.
You know, look, gold, silver, I mean, Bitcoin is going to demonetize gold.That's just a fact, in my opinion.
You know, it will flip gold and it will, you know, gold will go down to its jewelry value and, you know, a lot of the premium will come out of it. I caution people to say, not tomorrow.
This is a multi-year, arguably multi-decade process of that taking place.And in the scheme of things, gold and silver are still way, way better than fiat in the environment that we're currently in.
And so 8 billion people kind of intrinsically understand that gold's money, because we've had 5,000 years to prove it. You know, as we know, the number of us who understand that Bitcoin is money, it's a much smaller number and it's growing rapidly.
That's why Bitcoin is going to outperform.But, you know, it's going to take a long time until it sinks into everybody that this is the base layer of the monetary system.But I think it will.I mean, I think certainly within 20 years it will.
But, you know, 20 years is a long time.So, but I, you know, I think of them in terms of, and when I recommend investments to my clients, I'm like, you should hold all three.
And the weighting should be based upon your tolerance for volatility and your tolerance for risk.Because while Bitcoin is clearly going to be the highest performing, it's also the most volatile.
So for somebody who's 80 years old to have 100% of the money in Bitcoin and be able to watch it maybe go down 50%, well, that's scary.They don't want to do that.But you don't need to have all your money in Bitcoin.
If it does what we think it's going to do, you know, just having 10 or 20 or 30% of your money in Bitcoin is going to be an enormous win.And so, you know, everyone can make their own choices.
I mean, sure, if I were 30, I'd have all my money in Bitcoin.I mean, I think most 30-year-olds should, but that's, you know, obviously everyone makes their own choices.
I sometimes feel privileged that I'm since 23 actually completely all in Bitcoin.I adopted this Bitcoin standard and it was possible because I was young.I didn't have a family, didn't have a company or anything like that.
And you're going to do great with that.I mean, that's a great strategy.
Absolutely.I just remembered when you talked also with the early 2030s, as you mentioned before, about the Madeira presentation Michael Saylor gave with the 10-year gold rush that's coming to Bitcoin.
Is this something that you think... Yeah, that really resonated with me.
I mean, obviously, because he used my term gold, but that did really resonate with me.I mean, I think we're the You know, we're kind of at that Malcolm Gladwell tipping point where it feels like this is really starting to catch on.
I mean, and there are a number of things I think he pointed to and I would just emphasize them.I mean, the adoption of the ETF, right?
I mean, before that happened, most people in the United States, a lot of my friends, oh yeah, that's all great, but you know, the government's going to kill that lawyer.They're just never going to let that happen.
Well, then the ETF got approved and it's kind of like, okay. That's different, right?And then some big Wall Street names flipping in our direction.I mean, I'm not a big fan of Larry Fink, because I think he benefited unfairly from the fiat system.
But he's not a fool.And he looked at it, did the analysis, and came to the conclusion, well, I've either got to join this thing or be wrong.And he decided to join.And so he now believes.And I think that's the process that takes place.
With any kind of a new innovation, there's initial skepticism.
for you know for some very legitimate reasons and then as the skepticism is overcome you see more and more adoption then you know 10 or 15 years from now I mean my kids you know you when you're older a lot of other people be it'll just be self-evident like of course this thing what's gonna work and and you know I had the same thing in the internet I mean I yeah okay you can hook these computers up you can send emails who cares who wants to do that it's not really that an important thing you know Krugman says the fax machine well
Well, yeah, okay.Yes, you're right.It's a little slow, and you've got to dial up now, and it's annoying.But guess what?It's going to get better.
And, you know, I mean, here we are X number of years later, and you and I are talking halfway around the world from one another in real time, video conferencing, something that used to be extremely expensive.
I mean, the implications of the technology and how it's changing our world, I mean, you just can't ignore these things. And to me, this is just, you know, this is just the Internet 2.0.
I mean, and arguably, it's even bigger and more important because the Internet was dealing with information and communication, which is damn important.But this is dealing with money.This is dealing with a base layer, the thing that we all need.
I mean, you can live without the Internet.I mean, theoretically, you know, you kind of can't live without money.You can't feed yourself.So it's a big deal and it's coming.So, you know. Yeah, to me it's just inevitable.
And so the fun part is we get to sit back and we get it.We get to sit back and kind of enjoy the ride.And then I think our job is to try to save as many people as we can and to try and help and educate others so that
when these changes occur, they're on the right side of them.
I feel really sorry for people that don't understand this and for people that are trapped in fiat land because I think that economically, they're going to suffer on a relative basis and they don't need to if they were to open up their mind and read Saif's book.
You know, it's hard.Once you've actually taken the time to do the analysis, it's very difficult to come to any other conclusion, which is why when I start orange-pilling people, I'm always just, I'm just patient.
And I'm like, no, I just keep chipping away at it.I've had a lot of people who were very skeptical in the beginning who are now full-fledged Bitcoiners. But that didn't happen in a day, you know, it took time.
And that's how it's gonna be with society, right?I mean, as I said earlier, it's this tipping point thing.And so back to sailors, you know, this is the gold rush.Yes, I think this is the gold rush.
I think we're in the timeframe where this goes from just being a fringe, crank, you know, group of what they call psychopaths, right? to, you know, oh my God, of course I've got some Bitcoin.Everybody does, don't you?
Yeah, that's a good performing asset that's hedging against the future.I have some of that.You know, and maybe it's not very much.Everyone starts off small.But, you know, eventually you come to understand it and, you know, you end up where you are.
And I even came down for 120 because I was too big on it.
Leverage is dangerous in this asset.I mean, I was around, I mean, I saw Plan B get all these guys blown out of it, you know, a couple of years back when he was like, oh, it's going to 150 instantly.
And I was like, oh, you guys levered up and then boom, they were, you know, they lost their corn. Actually, that's something I always try to point out to people too.When somebody's buying it, I think we do someone a disservice.Oh, just buy it.
Don't worry.Well, if they buy it and then it goes down and then they freak out and then they sell it, well, then you've done them a disservice.
I think whenever you orange pill somebody, it's extremely important to make them aware of the fact that if it goes down, that's a buying opportunity.They're not wrong because I've seen that happen and it's unfortunate when it happens.
The time horizon also is really important.
It's having a long time preference that you can be patient.
Absolutely.Which is interesting volatility.Do you think that when we have like we are like how many percent of the world is in Bitcoin?Not a lot.Very, very small number.And this actual gold rush is coming.
Do you think then there's a chance that volatility actually goes up?
That's a great question.I'll give you a two-part answer.I think in general volatility is trending down from inception.If you go back and you look at the drawdowns, they're getting smaller.Not incredibly quickly, but they are getting smaller.
I think the volatility will decrease on a general basis over time because it just gets more widely distributed so there are more buyers to buy the dip. Um, I think it could be extremely volatile in a, um, you know, kind of a Weimar like environment.
Um, if, if we really do break the monetary system and things start to go crazy, um, you know, it could be all over the map.
And it'll literally be just kind of hang on to your hats because it's going, I mean, in other words, I don't know, are you familiar with it?
Have you seen the chart on Twitter that I put many times, others have, it's Dan Oliver's chart from Mermican Capital of the behavior of the Weimar mark against the dollar, I mean, against gold during the Weimar period.
We should find it and put it in the show notes, okay?I'll send it to you.We put it in the show notes, but the bottom line is that even though
the Deutschmark was going to zero against gold, there were months where gold did very poorly compared to the Deutschmark.
In other words, it was a very volatile process of big swings of ups and downs and ups and downs, all trending toward the failure of the Deutschmark, where it took X billion Deutschmarks that were worthless, right?But just in one given month,
You know, I mean, and I read the history of the period.There were times when the German government would come out and say something along the lines of, no, no, no, we're going to stop printing.We're going to raise interest.
You know, everything's going to be OK.And bingo, the gold would fall and the Deutsche Mark would rally.But of course, then they wouldn't do what they said they were going to do.And the next month, it would go in the other direction.
And so the point I'm trying to make is, I mean, here's an example.If the dollar really starts to fail and Bitcoin goes to 500,000,
then the government announces some program went no no we're gonna cut expense we do and everyone oh shit and they believe them you know they're going to go from 500,000 back down to 200,000 right and that's that's a hell of a lot of volatility and but then everyone you know at the 200,000 it becomes clear that what the government said really isn't true and they can't do it and so it goes from 200,000 to 800,000
You follow what I'm saying?In other words, you can get these really wide swings on the way to it going to 10 million or it going to kind of infinity in dollar terms because nobody wants a dollar anymore, you know?
So that's kind of what I'm describing.I mean, actually, you know, the process of hyper-Bitcoinization, when the currency failed.And in the case of Weimar, you know, it kind of went up a lot in 19 and 20 and 21.
It was about a one and a half year event where it just, the currency completely failed. totally and completely failed.And so there was a lot of volatility in that time frame.
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I think it's also interesting when we look at volatility versus the fiat currencies versus volatility of actual purchasing power.How does this look in such a scenario when we have like hyperinflation?
Yeah, well, that's right.I mean, you know, it gets tricky because, you know, do you measure things in dollars anymore?I mean, you know, we all often joke that maybe Bitcoin will be worth a million dollars a coin.
True, but gasoline could be $100 a gallon. You know, so it's, you know, you've got, I mean, at the end of the day, all these prices just represent what can you then exchange it for?You know, what does a gallon or a liter of gas cost?
You know, what does a pound of steak cost?
Talking about the internet, we talked a little bit before and you see the internet 2.0.Where would you say we are in internet year of adoption?
That's a great question.Yeah, I heard somebody else the other day say it was about 2000.So I was involved.I started buying internet companies privately in 1993.95 was when Netscape came out with a browser and most people didn't have Windows then.
When you first got on the internet in 93, 94, it was green screen. And Windows is really kind of shitty in 95.And the difference between 95 and 2000, I mean, 2000 is when I kind of marked the first real widespread adoption of the internet.
And I just wrote this in my book.2000 is interesting.In the United States, only about half the people in the country in the United States were on the internet in 2000.
So we're not at 2000 yet because I don't think half the country is familiar with or involved in Bitcoin. But we're not at 93, we're beyond 93 where it's, you know, cause it's pretty, you know, it's pretty well known now, right?
I mean, you see it on CNBC, you see, you know, we've got ETFs, we've got Larry Fink buying it, we've got billionaires talking about it, et cetera, et cetera.
So I don't know, I guess I'd have to say we're maybe in 96 or seven, you know, and, and I think, and that's why I think Saylor used the gold rush comment because 97 is only, you know, at 2000, you know, everybody knew about the internet.
Even if you weren't on it, you were aware of it.That's why I think the next three years are going to be really exciting for this space because I think what's going to happen is the monetary stuff is going to get worse.That's almost a certainty.
Whether we get to the big print or not, I don't know, but the monetary conditions are going to get worse. And Bitcoin's going to break out from the 73.
And every time, you know, every time it hits a high and goes down, and when it went from 73 to 25, you know, Bitcoin's dead, it's never going to work, all the skeptics, et cetera.
But every time it takes out an old all-time high and everybody's in a profit position, it's like, oh my God, here we go again, you know?
And so when we take out 73 and we head towards, you know, I'd say the peak of this next cycle might be 200, 250, you know, there's just going to be a whole new group of converts who are going to go, oh shit,
you know, I was wrong, I got to get in on this.And of course, sadly, someone will buy in at 250 right before it corrects down to 150.You know, and, you know, that's, that's what will happen.Yeah, so I'd say we're in 97.
And I that's why I think the next three years will be very exciting.
And one interesting chart that I saw today was the Google Trends versus the Bitcoin price.And you kind of see the correlation usually a little bit.But right now, we're like still low in the Google Trends, like almost nobody seems to search it.
But we're at almost an autumn high of Bitcoin.Is that all institutional ETF money, companies buying it and the retail is still completely asleep?
I think that's probably right.I mean, I don't know.I mean, I'm not I'm not really sure why it's kind of so quiet the way it is right now.It's kind of surprising to me, because it should be higher.It's obvious to me that it should be higher.
But I suspect that there's still a big piece of the world that thinks the stock market is the place to have your money.And that's the next piece of money that we need to grab.I mean, the gold guys aren't going to come buy Bitcoin, although some have.
But the two big pools of capital in the world are people who are invested in bonds.I think they're slowly waking up to the fact that inflation is persistent.
but also people who are invested in stocks because frankly stocks have been a pretty good hedge against inflation.
I mean, if you've been in the right stocks, you know, they've gone up nicely, you know, over time and they protected you and buying the dip always made sense.Um, I think that's going to change.
I think that's subtly changing because I think inflationary conditions, um, mean that stocks and companies have earnings pressure.Um, they get rising costs and they can't always pass them up, pass it on in higher prices.So, so I guess my view is, um,
the stock market is going to start coming after Bitcoin and that's going to fuel the next leg higher.And as you and I both know, there's kind of a ceiling right at the old all-time high around 73.We're right up against it.
And the way these things technically, the way financial markets tend to work is when you break through an old all-time high, you scored up to a much higher all-time high.So I think clearing 73, I mean, I think we'll be at 90 very quickly.
So yeah, I mean, that's my guess. But we're not quite through 73 yet, and it could take a little bit longer.Also, you know, we need the government to start to initiate that big print, I mean, and give us more hints that that's coming.
And we're kind of seeing it.I mean, yesterday, Yellen talked about buying some more paper.And, you know, there are indications that it's going to have to happen.But, you know, but they're subtle.And so not everyone's picked up on it yet.
Absolutely.What do you think is the biggest challenge that Bitcoin kind of faces moving forward?
Well, so there are two, we haven't talked about this, but there are two kind of use cases surrounding Bitcoin, right?There's the store of value use case, which we all get and understand.And really, that's, I think, why most people are in it today.
And then there's the medium of exchange use case, which, excuse me, Jeff Booth points out, he thinks that's the most important one.And I share his view in that we've really got to get people using it, it has to become more of a medium of exchange.
And the reason for that is that that will embed it deeper into society and it will make it harder for the governments to 6102 it.
The medium of exchange case is dependent, in my view, right now, on the development of Lightning and non-custody solutions like Fediment, both of which are being developed and growing and doing quite well and advancing.
Neither of which are, you know, huge and widespread.I mean, they're really early days.They're like the 93 internet.And so we've got to improve.I mean, right now, if you want to send a small transaction over Lightning, no problem.
Works great, cheap, you know, all squared away.You want to send a bigger number over Lightning, well, there's not as much liquidity there.You know, there aren't enough channels to necessarily do it.It's getting better, but it's an issue.And so to me,
These kind of medium of exchange, second layer apps and development are the key to much more widespread adoption as quote-unquote money.
Right now, in my view, and I know Celia doesn't like when I say this, but I strongly believe, right now Bitcoin is really just digital gold.And it's better than gold, obviously, because it's got a fixed supply.
But the supply of gold on the planet will double in the next 50 years as we mine more of it. The medium of exchange case is, I think, what drives us to that next level.And I think that's another five to 10 years.
But I think more and more, I mean, I'm sure you've traveled and spent and used Bitcoin for things.I have.I've been to places that accept Bitcoin.I use it every time I can.So it's coming, but we're in the dial-up phase over there.
It's really early days.You know what I'm saying, dial-up phase, right?
Yeah, the kind of startup phase.
I'll be more explicit.Before we had broadband, probably before you were born, back in the 90s, if you wanted to get online, you had to take your telephone and put it in a modem.
And the modem, and then you dial a number and you heard this, and your telephone would mate with the receiving end at the other side. And that was how you got your internet connection.Broadband didn't exist.
Cable TV existed, but they didn't put broadband signal over it.So yeah, that's the dial-up phase.Those were the really early days.I mean, it started off at 1,200 baud, which I can assure you was extremely slow.I mean, just sending text took forever.
I was born in 98, so when I got the first computer, I already had Google there.I already had a nice interface there.The only thing that was still with me was the fear of your phone being connected to the internet because this charges a big bill.
Way back when, and that was before you guys had broadband too.Yeah, broadband made a big difference. Each of these developments just pushed us down the road and they just keep on coming and that's the beautiful thing about technology.
One of the things I say, and I talk about this a lot in the book, what's going to save us here is technology.
We built this big centralized world with a bunch of bad people controlling it and they've stolen from us and they've set up a system to benefit themselves at our expense.Technology is going to save us.We've got the internet.
The New York Times can't tell me what to think anymore.I can listen to Joe Rogan.
You know, so the internet gave us freedom of information and freedom of speech and connected us all together and allowed you and I to do things like we're doing right now.And then Bitcoin is going to give us honest money that can't be debased.
And so the combination of the two, you know, these old sclerotic, corrupt, you know, centralized government powers, you know, they're all going to die.I'm really excited about that.So.
I love that.You said, I think in the beginning, the first like 10, 15 minutes, something with like, we can't even imagine what's there to come, something along those lines.
And it's really interesting when we have all those small use cases on top of Bitcoin with like value for value for Nostra, Layer 2 solutions, Steadiment, Lightning, as you mentioned.
Maybe besides the just payment rails, most excited about, do you see Nostra?Do you see like... I love Nostra.
I mean, I, you know, hopefully, Elon will keep Twitter free and, you know, but, but yeah, look, I'm not, I'm probably not the best person to ask on that because I focus more on the monetary side, but I think, I think the monetary side is just enough.
And actually, I'll tell you what I'm most excited about.I'm excited about really two things about Bitcoin, really. One, I'm excited about what Alex Gladstein's work and how much it can help the unbanked in the third world.
And, you know, a lot of people who are just, you know, taking advantage of left, right and center by the financial system.
I mean, there are 4 billion people that aren't really in first world countries that, you know, kind of get screwed with respect to their money and Bitcoin can help them and has helped them.
And, you know, the remittance business, a huge business of, you know, $68 billion a year business. Somebody's raking off 10% on the transaction fees there and it could be zero if it were all in lightning.
The other thing I'm very excited about is that I think Bitcoin will defund government and then therefore make it much harder to conduct war.
I don't think there's any set of human beings that would vote to pay the taxes necessary to go kill other human beings.And so the governments have figured this out and that's the way they pay for these wars is they just have inflation.
If you take inflation away and you can't have inflation because the monetary system cannot be inflated full stop, well, how the hell are they going to tax us to have the war?Well, then how the hell are they going to have the war?
And so, you know, that's to me the greatest crime of the fiat currency era that we live in is the way that it's allowed these big corrupt governments to, you know, go kill people.And when, you know, and that's, that's just incredibly evil and sad.
So, so those two things are to me, the most exciting parts of Bitcoin. You know, the side benefit is that we're all going to get rich.And that's good, too.But, you know, that's a side effect, not the main effect.
This is super interesting for me when I talk about nation state adoption, because I kind of don't want them to buy Bitcoin.
Yeah, right.You don't want them to have power.Right.Yeah, I know.Look, I mean, if you really think longer term, there's an argument.I mean, what are nation states for?
You know, they arose to defend property, and they arose to defend wealth, and they arose to create privilege for the people at the top of them.
And, you know, one could argue that, you know, obviously much flatter systems, I think, would be, you know, much better.You know, there's a substantial argument for that.And I think the decentralization of governments, yeah, I'm all for that.
I mean, I think, you know, I'm not a complete anarchist.I mean, I think there is like most civilized human beings would agree that having some government structure makes sense from a protecting life and liberty and property.
You know, I like having police officers.I like having courts.I like thinking that criminals will be punished.And I'm certainly willing to pay my fair share of the taxes to have those things occur.
But beyond that, I kind of look at government and I go, you know, okay, everything else you're doing, no, not really interested in that.Let's just, let's just stick to the life, liberty and safety and rule of law.
That's all, you know, and if somebody said, you got to pay 20% of your income to make sure you have those things, I'd say done.I'm totally good with it, but I think we could do it for a lot less than 20% of our incomes even.
Absolutely.Yeah.Let's talk a little bit about nation state adoption, especially short term.It's really interesting.I mean, the podcast will come out after the election.We have more information on that.
How do you see that if potentially Trump gets in, Lumis is there, there's Dennis Porter, there's RFK, there's Ramesh Ravi.How do you see that in the US?
Look, I'm extremely encouraged.I mean, you have to remember a few years ago, Trump was not very big on Bitcoin. You know, Vivek got into his ear and then I think Senator Loomis did as well.
And, you know, I have to say I've been, I've been impressed and with Trump's evolved, the way Trump has evolved in terms of who he is and what he's seen.I mean, he's, I think he's learned and he's asked for help.
And the fact that he's got some of these other people around him who I think can help him is a big positive.You know, obviously on a, from a crypto and sound money standpoint, You know, he wins all day long versus her.
You know, I'm hesitant to, because there are people on both sides of the spectrum.I hate the whole blue-red debate.We're all just Americans.I hate that whole thing.And the extremes on both sides are crazy in my view.
I tend to be much more of a centrist, but obviously I lean in one direction on this, you know, on this election because of, for a number of reasons.But, you know, the point is that
you know, government can and will have to be responsive to the people.
I think that it's very interesting that in the past, you know, when they were talking about a lot of the crypto stuff, do you remember a year or two ago when they were really kind of coming down on it and it was something that was passed in Congress, I can't remember the specifics, but, and it led to kind of a telephone campaign and just people flooding DC with calls and complaints and this, that, and the other.
It was an anti-crypto move and, and, you know, they kind of backed off on it.And look, at the end of the day, politicians have to get votes.
And one of the things that's positive, and I'm very much a maxi, I'm all Bitcoin, I hate all the other coins, but I'll tell you, the one thing that is good about all the other crypto players is that they're in favor of less crypto regulation and no Gary Gensler, and they do represent big numbers.
And so to the degree that that can keep the government away from Bitcoin and and crypto, then I'm good with that.In terms of the strategic reserve, I think it's brilliant.I mean, I think this is Jason Lowery's thesis.I hope they do it.
I was in Nashville.I listened to Trump's speech.I listened to RFK's speech.I thought RFK's speech was brilliant.Of course, it was written by Brian Estes and his wife, but I think RFK does believe those things.
And my sense is that if Trump wins, this will be a much more friendly environment. for, you know, the Katelins of the world and the Bitcoiners of the world.
And that's a very good thing, in my opinion, because I think Bitcoin is going to save the world.So, you know, let's hope that's how it goes down, but we'll just have to wait and see.
I mean, you know, I'm reminded of the Stalin quote that it's who counts the votes that matters, right? you know, call me somewhat of a skeptic, but it would appear based on what I'm seeing in the United States that Trump is going to win.
As my audience is split like 50% around that in America and the rest of the world.
Do you think that the outcome of the election and US policies in general, because America is such a big place for finances especially, has global impact on Bitcoin or just is it the United States?
I think it does.Look, I think Bitcoin is going to win no matter what happens in this election.
I mean, I think, let's say she wins and let's say, you know, Warren continues with her anti-crypto nonsense and, you know, let's say they try and do a lot of negative things. the pushback is going to be enormous.
And, you know, it's one of those things where no matter what they do, I think Bitcoin wins.
Having said that, though, I think that, you know, it'd be much better and it will be an easier path if we have an administration that's friendly to Bitcoin and building a strategic reserve.
And I mean, one of the biggest things I think could happen to be a huge positive, and Trump actually just mentioned it the other day to somebody,
would be for Bitcoin to be and this in my book I write about this as well you know Bitcoin gold and silver should all be legal tender and what that means is that holding them and then selling them should not represent a capital gain or a capital transaction in other words they they're all money they're all the dollar is a form of money and bitcoins a form of money and gold's money silver's money they're all money and so you don't you know when you when you trade a dollar I mean a dollar is a dollar but you
You don't, and it's the numeraire, but the point is money shouldn't lead to, the appreciation of one money in terms of another money should not lead to a capital transaction, a capital gains event.
And I heard Trump the other day say something along the lines of he was thinking about, he agreed with somebody who said you should eliminate the tax on capital gains and Bitcoin in the United States.That would be a big deal.
And I'm not sure he'll be able to get it done, but if he did, that would be a big deal. So yes, it's certainly more positive for Bitcoin in one direction versus the other.
I mean, he even talked on Rogan, I think, around dropping income tax for terrorists or something like that.I only heard it by chance.
Yeah, he's had some good tax proposals.I mean, look, the federal government, I mean, I wouldn't want to be any of these guys.I mean, they've got a really, really tough problem.It's a Gordian knot. You know, and somebody is not going to be happy.
I mean, the fact of the matter is too many promises have been made that cannot be delivered upon.And somebody is going to come up with a short stick.And, you know, how we get from here to there, it's impossible to predict or know.
All that people like yourself and myself can do and others can do is we can vote with our feet.And if we have savings, we have to decide where to put them. and such that, you know, in future years, they have purchasing power.
And so to me, that's why I just try to keep it simple when I'm talking to people.Look, the government's going to print money, right?Right.There's going to be inflation, right?Right.Okay.You got to own stuff the government can't print, right?
This is really pretty simple, you know, and government can't print silver, the government can't print gold, government can't print Bitcoin. You know, if you own those things, you're, you know, you're half, you got half the battle lit.
So, you know, it's simple.
Absolutely.A question that each and every one of my guests get is, what can we learn from you besides Bitcoin?
Oh, for Bitcoin, I don't know. I've talked a bit about on other podcasts, I'll mention it too, because it's kind of one of my big things.I post my workouts on Twitter, which are nuts.And I'm 67.
So one of the things I guess I would say is that for the listeners who are over 40, I've observed the decay of the human body as you age.And you don't have to worry about this in your 20s. And it gets steeper each decade, right?
And so when I started the decade of my 50s, it got too steep.And so I kind of got nuts about investigating how I arrested that and could change that.And so I discovered CrossFit.So I'm a big proponent.
I guess the one thing I would suggest to people is anybody over 45, 50 who hasn't figured out what their exercise program is going to look like for the balance of their lives, they're doing themselves a disservice.
And so there's a book I recommend to everybody.It's an absolute must read book.It's called Younger Next Year by Chris Crowley.
And it describes the story of a guy who was in the same boat I was in in his 50s, which is he was starting to get sick and he was watching his body deteriorate and he decided to take on an extreme exercise regime and it changed his life.
And I did the same thing and it changed my life.So I guess one thing I would say to people who are older is, You know, don't be afraid of it.
You know, learn about exercise, learn about the impact it has on your overall health because, you know, if you're going to live into your 60s, 70s, 80s, I mean, that can be, you know, painful and a big decline or, you know, there are people who are in their 80s and 90s and are super fit and super healthy.
But the price for that is proof of work.You've got to actually exercise every day. A lot of people don't want to do that, but I would suggest that it's a really good thing to do.And I know in my case, it's really changed my life.
So that's something I just try to emphasize when I'm talking to people on these podcasts.One other thing I would say that helped a lot is I quit drinking in my 30s, my mid 30s, and that's had an enormous impact on my overall health and well-being.
I highly recommend that to anybody.
I love that a lot.It's really cool.Another aspect of training, because I do it almost every day, Saturday, Sunday, usually not.It's just a mental aspect of it.Like I feel mentally better on a day that I trained than a day that I did not train.
No, don't get me wrong.I don't do seven days a week.I take three days off for sure.You've got to, especially if you're going hard, you've absolutely got to give yourself rest and recovery. But yeah, it has so many positive impacts in our life.
And it's like God's antidepressant.You know what I mean?It really is.And in terms of just health benefits, I mean, the U.S.could solve its whole health care problem if we had everybody doing CrossFit. The odds of that are very high.
Really cool.We have an entertainer in the podcast, as you know, where the previous guest is asking a question for the next guest without knowing who the next guest actually is.And the last guest asked you, who is Satoshi Nakamoto?
Yeah, I know.You know, I don't really know.And I don't and I don't really care.And I really I want to respect whoever it is, I want to respect the guy's privacy.It's a true God given gift. And thank God somebody thought of it.
And whoever it is, God bless them.And I think, I think the way they've handled it by becoming anonymous was brilliant.And, you know, we all know the candidates.I mean, they're, and I've met some of the candidates, right?I mean, it could be Adam Back.
It could be, you know, I didn't meet Hal.It could be Hal Finney.You know, it could be Len Sassemon.It could be many, many people.It might've been a group of them, who knows?But I don't think it was the CIA.I don't think it was the deep state.
I think it actually really was, it came about organically as a result of a bunch of smart people contributing pieces of the puzzle.
And then somebody, maybe a couple of somebodies or maybe just one somebody putting it all together and publishing the white paper and starting it flying.And thank God, whoever it is did it.I mean, that's all I have to say.
And I think the prior guest also asked if it was George, he also asked, if you knew who it was, would you tell everybody?And the answer is no.I kind of don't want to know. And I kind of don't want to tell everybody.I don't think it's important.
I think the important thing is that we have it and we should recognize it for what it is.I mean, you know, it's, yeah, I mean, I almost, it's weird.I mean, I'm spiritual.I almost feel like it's divinely given to us.
I mean, it really is kind of an amazing, amazing thing.I mean, it's a, I don't think people fully understand the scale of what happened when the white paper was published. they will come to see it over time.
But I think today, it'd be as though, I don't know, we were around when the printing press got made.First of all, most people were illiterate.And second of all, only monks could translate or copy the Bible.
And imagine, compare that to where we are today.Literally everyone can read and you can get information instantly.I imagine there were probably similar events around the crucifixion of Christ.
People at the time didn't really understand what it was or what it meant.But, you know, look at what happened.So it's a big deal.I mean, I'm not trying to be hyperbolic, but I am saying it's a big, big, big deal.
The invention of true digital scarcity.And that's the way I describe it.I think more people should describe it that way.It's not a cryptocurrency.It's an invention.And the invention is immutable digital scarcity.
And you kind of say to yourself, well, why does that matter?Well, it matters because in one particular area, We've had, you know, millennia worth thousands and thousands of years of monetary debasement.And we just stopped that.
We just put an end to that.And it's kind of like, whoa, that's a big deal.That's a really, really big deal.Thousands of years of a problem, even with gold.I mean, it was slow, but we, you know, even gold gets monetarily debased.
Thousands and thousands of years of monetary debasement.And we've now got no monetary debasement, full stop.It's like, wow, that's, you know, you know, absorb that, right?It's a big deal.So that's, that's kind of how I see it.
This will be studied in history books for sure.Yeah.
Yeah, I think so.I think so.
Cool.Thank you so much, Lawrence, for taking the time, for coming on the show.I think I usually ask where people can find you, but usually I think everyone already knows you.
I'm a big loud mouth on Twitter.I don't give the central banks a whole lot of breathing room because they don't deserve it.And I do have a website called ema2.com.
I'm also involved with something called the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, which is James Lavish, David Foley, myself, Greg Foss, Mark Moss.And, you know, we invest in Bitcoin related things.So lots of ways to kind of look me up and get a hold of me.
Absolutely.Thank you so much for taking the time.Also, thank you so much for everyone that is joining us today.As always, I'll be back tomorrow with another episode.Bye bye.
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