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We got a lot of economic data that came out just in the last few days since I did my podcast on Tuesday night, including the highly anticipated, as always, non-farm payroll report, the jobs report for October, the last major report and the last jobs report.
before the presidential election on Tuesday.I'm gonna get to the jobs report, but first I wanna talk about some of the other economic data that came out before we got the jobs report, starting with the GDP numbers that came out on Wednesday.
Now, the consensus was for the 3% forecast to continue at 3%. This was, I guess, a revised Q3 forecast, so they were assuming that it would stay the same.
What happened was it slipped down to 2.8%, so a little bit less GDP growth in this revision than they thought. The personal consumption expenditures, which is the largest part of GDP.
Remember, it's government spending plus consumer spending plus investment that gives you the GDP net trade, which is always a negative.As I discussed on the last podcast, we have a huge trade deficit, so that subtracts from GDP.
If we had a trade surplus, it would add to GDP. But that number shot up to 3.7%.It was originally reported at 2.8.They thought it would eke out to 3%.And it came out at 3.7, so a big jump.
But even though consumer spending went up a lot more, the overall GDP went down.And so that probably means investment spending really went down, even though we had this big increase in consumer spending. The overall rate went down.
Of course, we know government spending keeps going up, so that's not what's driving it.But I think the main reason that consumers are spending so much is because prices are so much higher.Things cost more, and so consumers have to spend more.
to buy stuff.And now where are they getting that money?We know they're going into debt.They're taking second and third jobs.That's where they're getting the money.But none of this is real evidence of economic growth.
The fact that people are spending more money to buy the same or less stuff doesn't mean the economy has grown.Now, I know there's supposedly a GDP deflator that's supposed to account for this, except it doesn't because the number is much too low.
GDP growth it's inflation masquerading as growth again that's one of the other reasons that the government likes inflation and creates inflation is because it creates and perpetuates this illusion people are fooled into believing that things are getting better
as they're getting worse, although voters are not necessarily fooled.That's why so many voters want to change.They don't want to stay the course.They want to change.
They're not buying what the media is selling about how great the Biden-Harris economy is.The data, in fact, all the data is coming out this week, confirms that this is a weak economy.We're probably in recession.It's stagflation.It's worse.
It's recession and inflation at the same time.What very few people seem to comprehend, with all this talk about how great the economy is, we are probably in the earlier years of what will be a worse economic downturn than the Great Depression.
It's going to be protracted.It's going to go on for a long time.And we're just at the beginning of it, maybe the last year or two. I think when they ultimately revise down a lot of these numbers, it will be revealed.
But not just the worst economy since the Depression, but the worst inflation since the 1970s, probably worse than the 1970s.But the worst part about it is, is we're getting the economy of the 30s and the inflation of the 70s at the same time.
We're going to have an inflationary depression. You know, despite all this optimism, pie in the sky talk about what's going on, that is the reality that nobody understands or few people.
Now, other economic reports that came out earlier in the week, we got the Challenger job cut report.Again, another big number, not as big as the 72,821 jobs that were eliminated last month, but still 55,597 jobs. were eliminated.
Most of the jobs that are getting eliminated are the higher paying full-time jobs that are productive and come with benefits.We replaced them with government jobs and other non-productive service sector jobs.
A bigger number that came out earlier in the week was the personal income and spending number.
This one came out yesterday and actually sent the markets tanking, including gold, which had one of its biggest corrections in the past couple of weeks, although nothing out of the ordinary.Gold was down about 40 bucks.
as a result of the inflationary news that was contained in the personal income and spending numbers.So personal income was supposed to rise by 0.4. Instead, it rose by 0.3, so less than expected.
But personal spending, which was supposed to rise by 0.4, rose by 0.5, and the prior months, up 0.2, was revised to up 0.3. So a bigger increase in spending.Again, why are consumers spending more?Because they're paying more.
Prices are higher, so you have to spend more money to buy groceries and things like that.And so that is why spending is going up.It's not because people are wealthier and they're buying more.They're poorer and they're buying less.
But what was more troubling for the markets was the inflation numbers, the personal consumption expenditure index, which is the Fed's preferred way to measure inflation.And I've always said it's the preferred way because it's the least accurate.
It's the measure that most understates how much prices are going up, and that's why the Fed likes it. But the PCE for the month rose 0.2, which was expected, but was still double the 0.1 from the prior month, going in the wrong direction.
The Fed is still confident we're going down to 2%, yet the numbers are going in the other direction.The year-over-year increase in the PCE was 2.1, and that was an improvement over the upwardly revised 2.3 from the prior month.
But the main driver was the big drop we've had in oil prices, which I think is being engineered to help Harris win the election.
I think you've got the Israelis, you've got the Saudis cooperating with the Biden administration to try to sit on the price of oil until the election is over.And so that's also helping to skew
the inflation numbers, which of course works to Harris's advantage because she's campaigning on the fact that the inflation problem has been solved and that she's helped solve it, that somehow she inherited the inflation from Trump and now they fixed the problem that Trump created.
But if you look at the core PCE, which is supposedly the aspect that they look at the most because it strips out food and energy, The core rose 0.3, which was triple the original estimate of 0.1 from the prior month, which was revised to up 0.2.
And the year-over-year core, right, this is the holy grail as far as the Fed's concerned on its 2% target.It was supposed to drop from 2.7 to 2.6.Instead, it held steady at 2.7.This is the index that the Fed supposedly wants to get down to 2%.
And when it comes to these inflation measures, 2.7 is not close to 2.It is miles away from 2.I mean, we rarely got 0.7 below 2.
All the months and years where the Fed was saying we didn't have enough inflation, we have to get up to 2%, it was closer to 2% on the downside. than it is now on the upside.So we had 0% inflation.
We had massive quantitative easing to try to get the CPI rate up from 1.6, right, 1.7 to 2, right?Because they said, oh, we got a long way to go.We need all this money printing.
Yet we're further on the upside away from 2 than we were on the downside when they were in a panic to raise the rate.Now somehow they're confident that they don't have to do anything.
In fact, they can cut rates because they're confident that the 2.7 all by itself is just going to glide down to 2%.Now, the other important number in these income and spending numbers is the savings rate.
The savings rate dropped to 4.6, because obviously, earnings didn't go up as much as spending.So where'd the money come from?How do you spend money you don't earn?Well, you borrow it, you dip into your savings.So the savings rate dropped to 4.6.
That's the lowest since December of 2022.But remember, the whole savings rates were increased.The government come out somehow, they came out and they said, oh, We didn't know about all this savings that we didn't realize was there.
And they just added a bunch of savings, which were quickly blowing through.But they did that, I think, to make the consumer look stronger than they really are by coming up with all this savings that they didn't know existed.
Well, most likely the savings were a figment of the statistician's imagination.
But even though they created these imaginary savings, they're quickly being dissipated by families that are strapped for cash trying to survive in an inflationary environment.Now, we also got the Chicago PMI today, which was a complete disaster.
They were looking for an improvement to 47.3. The last month was 46.6.This collapsed down to 41.6.Remember, anything below 50 is contraction.And this is one of the lowest numbers we've had in years on this index.
This is a protracted manufacturing recession.It's obvious.The numbers continue to be horrific, even though Harris, Biden, and the media keep talking about a manufacturing renaissance.
I heard some woman on CNBC today talking about the manufacturing renaissance.What renaissance?This is the dark ages as far as US manufacturing is concerned.
All the data points, the trade deficits I talked about last week, the numbers we got in the jobs numbers I'm about to talk about, all of this confirms that we are in a manufacturing recession, not some kind of a manufacturing boom.
Same thing with the, or actually that number didn't come out today.I think it was, that number, the Chicago PMI came out yesterday.That one was yesterday.
The ones we got today were the PMI manufacturing, which is 48.7, 48.5, which was slightly better than estimates, but still below 50, right?
Any of these numbers sub 50 are the type of numbers that you see when you're in a recession, which is what I believe we're in.
And we also got the ISM manufacturing index, which was even worse because that one was supposed to be an improvement from 47.2 to 47.6. And instead, we went all the way down to 46.5 in the wrong direction.All these numbers, again, confirm recession.
But also, if you look at the prices paid components, they're moving up.So it's not just that we have a weak economy. We have strong inflation.Prices are being pushed higher.
So all this talk about why inflation is coming down, in fact, anybody who believes inflation is going to come down doesn't even understand inflation.
It's not even possible, given the enormity of the deficit spending and all the money that's been printed and that's going to be printed to finance these deficits.How can anybody possibly think that the future of inflation is lower? It's higher.
Only people who don't understand inflation or have a deliberate incentive to lie about inflation are saying that inflation is coming down.
Anyway, next up, I'm going to talk about the nonfarm payroll report, the jobs report that was a complete shocker that came out earlier this morning.But before I do that, we'll take a quick break.So stick around.We'll be right back.
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We only have one body, one skin, and only you can choose to make it better.Age healthy with Oneskin.Okay, now before I get into the October jobs report,
And so I don't forget, I want to let everybody know that my wife's group, Laughing Cats, their second single off their album, Funny Money, dropped today.It's on Spotify.
I really appreciate all of my followers that listened to her first song, G-Y-B-A.We got a lot of positive feedback from that song.I like the song objectively.
I think it's a good song, even if you're, you know, it's not your genre, maybe you're not into 80s, 90s pop type of music. Even if you didn't like that one, I think you'll really like Jerk that came out today.
And if you if you liked GYB, I think you'll love Jerk.I think this is a better song, even though I like I like both songs.I think musically this is a better a better piece.So that is on Spotify.
We don't have a video of this one on on YouTube, but we are going to put the link to the song, Jerk, on the podcast here on the YouTube channel.So look in the description when you're finished with the podcast, click on it.
I know she's got over 80,000 streams now of that first song. And more than almost 40, 50,000 people have listened to it.So a lot of people are listening more than once.And I think a lot more people will listen to that one after they listen to Jerk.
By the way, some people think that maybe I was the inspiration behind the song Jerk.I thought so too when I first heard the title.I was like, well, is this a song about me?But apparently it's not, even though I guess I tend to be a jerk.
Uh on occasion, I guess you could ask my wife, but this is not about me But it's a it's a really good song.
In fact, my wife is going to be performing this song tonight We got about 700 people coming to my house for a day of the dead party uh, it's going to be kind of crazy, but She's gonna be performing her first two songs and one more song tonight.
We have some other musical entertainment, so it's not just my wife.We have several acts performing at this evening's party, but again, 700 people, so it's a pretty big live audience.
But again, I encourage everybody and thank everybody in advance for helping to support my wife as she continues to release the songs that she wrote and sang herself. And the music and the guitar comes from her partner, Tony Fretinelli.
And if you don't know him, he was the lead guitarist for many, many years of the group Third Eye Blind, who met my wife through me because he was a fan of the Peter Schiff Show podcast.And so I introduced them.
And then the result was this collaborative effort, which I believe you'll enjoy if you check it out.Anyway, let me get to the jobs report.
Now, the expectation was for 125,000 jobs created, which would have been a big reduction from the surprise 254,000 jobs that were reported a month ago.And if you remember that number, that higher than expected number,
is the reason that everybody is giving for the rise in bond yields because this number supposedly showed that the economy wasn't nearly as weak. as the Fed believed when they cut the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points.This was a shocker.
Oh, my God, we don't have a weak economy.Look, we have a strong labor market.And the proof was this much bigger than expected nonfarm payroll number.Now, number one, when this number came out, I said BS. It's not a strong economy.This number is BS.
Look beneath the surface.It's weak.But all the other data is weak.And in fact, the data continues to come out weak.The only strong data is the inflation data.The economic data is weak.And so the markets were wrong to believe that.And by the way,
The yield on the 10-year Treasury up again this week closed at almost 4.4, 4.37 now.We're almost 70 basis points above where we were when the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Nobody saw this coming, you know, other than me.
I mean, in the mainstream media, maybe there were some guys on podcasts that were making the call like I was, but I didn't hear anybody making it in the mainstream media.But I'm hearing a lot of people in the mainstream media making excuses.
You know, because all the people who thought interest rates were going to go down, long-term rates, are claiming that the reason they're not going down is because the economy is stronger than they thought based on that jobs report.That is wrong.
The reason interest rates are rising is the precise reason that I said they were going to rise before the federal cut, and that's because of inflation and rising government debt that is causing bond investors to lose confidence in the Treasury's ability to repay the debt without creating inflation.
Because what's happening in the bond market is exactly what I predicted, it makes sense that my explanation is the correct one.Because the people who thought the opposite was going to happen are now offering a different explanation.
Well, their explanation is wrong because they didn't know what was going on.My explanation was right.And more proof is what happened today.So they were looking for 125,000 jobs. we ended up getting just 12,000, 12,000.
Well below, the lowest estimate was 57,000.We only got 12,000.That is a low number.Plus we revised down the prior two months.Now the last one, the September number was only revised down by 31,000 from 254 to 233.But the August number was cut in half.
It was revised down by 81,000 from 159,000 to just 78,000.That's a huge revision.So for the two months combined, right, the government eliminated 112,000 jobs.
And then we got a low number in October, but I bet that next month after the election, they are going to revise the September number down yet again, and they are going to revise down the 12,000 that we just got to a negative number.
Because I'm sure they did not want to have a negative print as the headline before Tuesday's election.But after the election, it's not going to matter.So I think this is going to be a negative number for nonfarm pay.
Well, this is the lowest number, I think, in like four years that we've even had, because we haven't had a negative number in a long time for the headline number.
Now, I know some people will say, well, it's being skewed by the hurricanes and the Boeing strike. but that was already factored in to the low estimates.The reason that the estimate was 125 is because people were already factoring this in.
So this is not the reason, this is the excuse that they're giving to try to rationalize why the number was low.
Of course, if there was an exogenous event that made the number high, they would ignore that and they would just celebrate the fact that it was a good number if that's what they were celebrating.But the markets actually rallied today.
They were down a lot yesterday on the hotter than expected inflation number.But they rose today based on a weaker jobs number that created more confidence that the Fed would cut.Now, all of a sudden, the cuts are back on the table.
But as I've been saying from the beginning, The hot inflation numbers are gonna keep heating up.They are not a reason to be bullish on bonds or bearish on gold.
Gold sold off 40 bucks yesterday on that because, oh no, the Fed's not gonna cut because there's higher inflation. You're going to have to get used to inflation numbers being hotter than expected.They're going to be red hot.
They're going to keep getting worse because the Fed is wrong.But what the markets don't understand, or one of many things, is the Fed's not going to do anything about it.They can't do anything about it.In fact, they're going to fuel the fire.
They're going to cut.They're going to go back to quantitative easing because the recession is going to be getting worse, right?The economy is going to be getting weaker as inflation is getting stronger.So what are they going to do, right?
They can't fight both.They got to pick.And all the political pressure, whether it's from Harris or Trump, all the pressure is going to be on stimulating the economy.We already know.
I mean, Trump was, you know, banging the table when he was president before for the Fed to cut rates.He wanted rate cuts.He was beating up on the Fed chair Powell for hiking rates.So we know what's gonna happen.
They're gonna want lower rates regardless of what's happening with inflation.But here's the point I just alluded to.Bond yields, which originally fell as soon as this number came out, Bond prices rose and yields fell, right?
That was the knee-jerk Pavlovian reaction.Oh, a weaker jobs report so the Fed can cut.But then bonds sold off and yields rallied anyway.
So if the consensus is true that the reason bond yields are rising is because the economy is stronger than expected based on that jobs report from a month ago, why did the rates rise even more today?
When we revised down that report, the report before, and we came out with a lousy report today, yet bond yields rose anyway.That proves my point, that it's not the strong economy that's driving bonds, it's the weak economy.
Because the weak economy means more inflation.It means bigger budget deficits.It means more money printing. That's what's bearish for bonds.That's why bonds are falling.That's why rates are rising.And they're going to keep on rising.
And the Fed is going to go back to QE to stop them from rising.And that's just going to pull the rug out from under the dollar, which has been rising and continued to rise today on the back of rising bond yields.
But the currency traders have got this one wrong. and they're gonna get killed when reality sets in because bonds are not rising or yields are not rising for the reason they think they are.
The reasons, the real reasons that bonds are rising are bearish for the dollar.They're not bullish and they're super bullish for gold.But let me get into a little bit more of this report too.The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.
Private payrolls, private payrolls were negative, negative 28,000. And the only reason that the headline number was positive was because of government jobs.The government added 40,000 people.The government didn't hire those people.
The top line number would have been negative.Now, is it a good thing that the government hired 40,000 people that we can't afford and borrowed more money to do it?No, we got to cut.We have too many government employees.
We can't afford them and they're screwing up the economy.And now we have 40,000 more to deal with. This is not good news.We need private sector jobs because private sector jobs pay for themselves.Government jobs are paid for by the taxpayer.
I don't want to pay for any more government workers, right?And it's either through taxes or through inflation.I want private sector workers that are paid for by private profits, right?I'm not on the hook to pay their salaries.
It's worse when you drill down into manufacturing, where 46,000 jobs were lost.Now, I think 33,000 of those were the Boeing strikers.But even then, that's another 13,000.I think four out of the last five jobs reports, four out of five,
had losses in manufacturing.So this is a trend, right?Again, it's not a manufacturing recession, it is a manufacturing dark ages.And labor force participation actually slipped a bit from 62.7 to 62.6.
Anyway, I wanna talk about how the markets reacted to this and got a few more things I wanna cover on the other side of this commercial break.So stick around, we're coming right back.
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You know, speaking about Kalshi, I talked about Kalshi on my last podcast and at the time, this is just on Tuesday. I pointed out that Kamala Harris was a real long shot to win the presidency.
She was down at 35%, so 35 cents, and Trump was up at 65 cents.
And my advice to anybody who wanted to test out Kelsey and place a bet was to bet on Harris, not because I thought that Harris would win, but because I thought that the odds on her were too low and that they would tighten up.
And my prediction was that by, election day, she would be more of 45% and not 35% and you can make a nice profit.Well, she's now at 46.She's 46 cents up from 35 cents.And that whole move happened today.
Even yesterday, I think you could have bet Harris at maybe 35, 36 cents.And now she's at 46 cents and Trump is down from 65 to 54.That is a huge move.
Now, as I speculated on the last podcast, I don't think the betting is really a function of what people think is going to happen.I think there are ulterior motives going on behind these bets.
And one of the theories I postulated was that people were buying shares of Donald Trump, big funds were buying DJT or had bought it.
And then they went and bet on Donald Trump to make the odds of Trump winning going up, knowing that that would cause investors to want to buy DJT shares.And so they weren't worried about losing money on their bets.
They knew that that would influence the price of the stock and they'd make a lot more money.Now, in the last two days, DJT has collapsed by about 45% from its peak.It got to about $55 a share.
on Tuesday just under, and it closed barely over 30, $30.56.So DJT stock was plunging.And I think as traders were taking profits on DJT, they were covering their bets on Donald Trump and unwinding them.And that's why you've seen this big move today
where harris shoots up and trump collapses it's not that the polls really change it's not that trump is so much less likely to win today than he was yesterday it's just that the people who made those bets now have an incentive to cover those bets because they got out of their trade in fact maybe
Now they want to bet on Harris to drive the price of DJT down so that they can buy it back or buy more.
Maybe they shorted DJT and now they're betting on Harris to cause people to want to dump their DJT and they can buy it back at a profit and then they'll cover these bets.But the bottom line is there's a lot of noise in there.
And if you're a gambler and you wanna just play around with it, anybody who took my advice last week, I mean, you could sell out now, which is what I would do.Why wait around for the results?
Because I still think that Trump is probably going to win this race.Although I mentioned that I was getting a little nervous just because so many other people were saying it was a sure thing.
And when things are promoted to be a sure thing, it's rarely the case.Another Trump stock I think is MicroStrategy. which hit new highs this week, finally had a bit of a correction today, it was down about 6%.
But I wanna use micro strategy as an example of the lunacy in the market, because it's a perfect contrast to Newmont Mining. So MicroStrategy came out with their earnings a couple of days ago.
And it's really not earnings, because when you lose money, you don't have earnings, you have losses.And that's exactly what MicroStrategy reported.In fact, the loss was so big, it was 1,200% higher than what the markets expected.
And not only was it a huge miss on earnings, but revenues also missed by about 5%. Now, I mentioned, you know, the prior week that Barrick came out and they missed, right?Their profits, they're, you know, they're on track.
They said for the biggest quarterly profit in five years, their profit, not their loss, their profit was 5.8% below estimates on revenue that was roughly in line, maybe about 1% below estimates on kind of a one-off spike in costs.
But they reiterated that their profits for the full year would be an all-time record high, the highest they've made in the 100-year history of the company.And they announced that they would increase their share buyback from $1 billion to $3 billion.
So $2 billion extra will be used to buy back the stock that then tanked by 15% that day and 5% the next day.So a 20% drop in Newmont. Meanwhile, the initial reaction and even the initial day, MicroStrategy closed positive.
Even though it missed revenues by a much bigger number and missed its loss, Newmont was off by 5.8%. MicroStrategy was off by 1200%.
I mean, they weren't even close when it comes to MicroStrategy, but no one cares what MicroStrategy is earning because this is a bubble.But here's where it really goes from the sublime to the ridiculous.They announced...
that they're going to be selling $21 billion worth of stock at the market offering, where the company just hires brokerage firms, and they're going to pay them a 2% commission.That's a big, fat commission.
You sell stock, you get no commission, all these discount brokers. They're charging 2%.We don't even, at a full service brokerage firm, they wouldn't even charge you 2% to sell MicroStrategy stock, right?
Maybe it'd be a half a percent at a full service, you know, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, you know, my firm.
Full service, we don't charge that much to sell MicroStrategy, but MicroStrategy is basically bribing all these Wall Street companies, 2% commission, just to execute this at-the-market sale, which is gonna be the biggest at-the-market offering in the history of stocks.
Now, this is the opposite of what Newmont is doing, right?Newmont is buying back stock.That should be bullish for the stock.MicroStrategy is saying, we're going to dump stock on the market.We're going to crank up the supply of our shares.
Normally, a stock would tank.I mean, if a gold stock did that, if it announced we're going to sell all this stock to raise money, the stock would get obliterated. But this stock didn't go down.People bought it.
It went up, even though it announced $21 billion in new stock.But making it worse, not only did Saylor announce that they're going to sell $21 billion worth of stock, they're going to issue another $21 billion worth of debt.
They're going to borrow more money.So the total is $42 billion in capital they're raising.And what are they going to do with that capital?Are they going to invest it productively in equipment?Are they building data centers?
What are they going to do with this $42 billion?They're going to blow it on more Bitcoin.They're going to spend $42 billion to buy Bitcoin. You know, now I can see why Bitcoin might go up on that insanity, but how can MicroStrategy not go up?
I mean, this is ridiculous.First of all, why 21 million?I mean, is there some strategy there?Like that's how much money the company needs though?Because there's 21 million Bitcoin.That's where he comes up with this.Oh, there's 21 million Bitcoin.
So let's borrow 21 billion and let's sell 21 billion worth of stock.I mean, this is so ridiculous.MicroStrategy is going to go bankrupt. There is no other way that this is going to resolve itself, right?
He really is Captain Ahab and Bitcoin is his Moby Dick, but he is going to go down and everybody that's on the ship is gonna go down with him.You know, even if I was bullish on Bitcoin, right?
I know there are people that watch this podcast that, hey, I agree with everything Peter Schiff says except for Bitcoin, right?So if you really like Bitcoin, Here's what you need to do.
Sell your Bitcoin now and buy it back when MicroStrategy goes bankrupt.Because I guarantee you, Bitcoin is gonna be a lot lower than that happens.And I can't even see.If Bitcoin is ever gonna go to the moon, it ain't going there with MicroStrategy.
He's gonna get flushed out.That company is going bankrupt.Talk about excess baggage.It's not gonna happen.That is why he is so desperate to prop Bitcoin up. $42 billion worth of more Bitcoin.So you got to get out of the way here.
Just, you'll thank me later.You can, you know, you could buy it back.You know, I'm not going to buy it when it crashes, but you know, you could do it too.You'll have plenty of money.
And here's the thing, when it does crash, let's say you sell out of your Bitcoin and you get a hundred grand or whatever, and then it crashes by 80, 90%.Don't put the whole hundred grand back in.
just put in the 10 grand, just buy back the same quantity of Bitcoin you sold, right?Keep the rest just in case I'm right, right?
Because you wouldn't have, you'll have the same Bitcoin, but you know, it wouldn't have cost you as much because you take a lot of your chips off the table.But this, what this shows you is the irrational insanity of this.
The way the market reacts to a slight profit miss by Newmont, which is gonna be buying back stock and a massive,
a loss miss where a company loses 1200% more than people thought and announces that it's gonna dilute the hell out of its stock and sell all kinds of shares and that stock doesn't go down, right?
This is the bizarro twilight zone world that we're living in.Anyway, let me look at some of the other things that happened too on the week. It was a down week.The markets were down.Dow was down 1.6%, S&P down 1.8%.
The Nasdaq was down 2%, the big loser on the week.Russell 2000 held up a little bit better, only down 1%.And Bitcoin managed to stay flat.It did get up. to 73,000 and change.
And of course, when it was up there, all the hodlers were out and the pumpers were going to the moon.That's it, 100,000 any day.And I was like, look, you know, we've been here before.There's a lot of resistance up here.And here we are back at 69,000.
We couldn't even hold 70,000.So no big deal.Bitcoin hasn't done anything.It stayed in its range.It never broke out to new highs, even as gold kept making new highs.But it's interesting because
When Bitcoin looks like it's going to break out, all the speculators rush in to buy MicroStrategy or Coinbase or all these crypto-related stocks.But that's not the case with gold mining stocks.It's the opposite.
Sentiment couldn't be more positive in Bitcoin, and sentiment couldn't be more negative in in gold.Now gold itself was down on the week by a quarter of 1%.That's it.
In fact, let me see where gold settled up the week at, you know, cause it may be not even down anymore.You never know.Yeah.So 2736.50 down Slightly on the week, just under eight, I'm on the day, just under $8.
You know, we did initially pop about 15, 20 bucks on the week jobs numbers, but then selling came in.But think about where we are.We're 2,736. You know, we are way up.
We're only a quarter of a percent below last week's high, which was the highest we've ever closed in a day or a week.So we're just right near the highs, and we made a new high during the week.
So the bull market is raging on, yet on the week, silver dropped by 4%. And by the way, I think we still have the silver sale at Shift Gold on junk silver, the half dollars.So if there's any leftover, make sure and snap those things up.
Go to shiftgold.com and get your silver half dollars. But the gold stocks also, GDX and GDXJ, down 4% on the week, 4%, 10 times as much as gold itself.Why?It's not like these stocks were already ahead of themselves and now they needed a correction.
They still need to catch up.In fact, the GDX is now down 10% from its high, what, less than two weeks ago, 10%.That is a full-blown correction.
on a quarter of a point drop in the price of gold that you could barely even notice, and you've had a full-blown correction.That means that the GDX now has to rally 11% to get back to where it was when gold was one quarter of 1% higher.
Now, it's going to do that, but gold's probably going to have to break through 2,800, maybe 2,850 or something before then we have a couple of days where gold catches up. But this is par for the course.This is how this has been going for years now.
But what do you want to buy?Do you want to buy the market that everybody is euphorically excited about and thinks is going to go up forever?Or do you want to buy the market where people are worried that this is the end?
that it's going to fall, and it can't go any higher, and I'm scared.That's the market I want to own, where everybody is afraid, where everybody is skeptical.
The contrarian in me looks for those kind of investment opportunities, because the consensus, the crowd, is almost always wrong.They're not right.
So when you find yourself investing with the crowd, you've got to really think about what you're missing. because it's very rare.Just like with democracy, the majority is rarely right.They're usually wrong.
That's another reason why democracy is not a good economic or political system.
Because if the majority normally gets it wrong, why would you want to leave the laws and government up to the whims of the majority that you know is going to be wrong far more often than they're right?
That's why the founding fathers created America as a republic. That's why we have a constitution to protect us from the majority who gets it wrong.That's why we have to protect the rights of the minority.That's why we have a constitution.
That's why we have a house and a Senate.Uh, that's why, you know, it's, it's not majority and we just do whatever the people want.That's why the president can veto stuff.That's why the Supreme court can throw stuff out.
That's why we have checks and balances.Everything that we have in the constitution is there to protect us from democracy. That was the evil that they tried to keep at bay.
Once the founding fathers decided that we were not going to be a monarchy, they didn't want us to be a democracy, so they created a republic.We have some democratic elements within our constitutional republic.
But they could have made a democracy, but they didn't.They did not want a country where we just have a vote and do whatever 51% of the people want to do, because they knew that that would end in disaster.
And we're actually experiencing some of that disaster right now.You know, I was listening to a Kudlow show on Fox Business. And my friend Steve Moore was on there, and I really get upset.
I didn't even realize that he and Art Laffer, and he's the guy that never paid me, welched on that penny bet back in 2006.
But he and Art Laffer wrote a book called The Trump Economic Miracle, and they're referring to his first presidency as an economic miracle. I mean, I hate this kind of stuff.Yes, everybody knows I support Trump.
I've encouraged my supporters to vote Trump.But I am not going to say that his first term was an economic miracle. Now, look, I know that people like to oversell, hype it up so you get votes, but that destroys all your credibility.
If we're ever going to solve the problems that need to be solved, we can't pretend that Trump's first term was great.All the problems got worse under Trump.Now, they would have got worse under Hillary too, but they got worse under Trump.
Government spending increased. Where's the miracle?The trade deficits hit record highs under Trump, even before COVID.The budget deficits were going up before COVID.The entire COVID response was a disaster.The Fed slashed interest rates to zero.
We had massive quantitative easing.That's the illusion. and that was created.There's nothing miraculous about what happened under Trump.If we're going to succeed in a second term, it needs to be the opposite of the first term.
It just pisses me off to hear guys that should know better to just come out like partisan hacks and just say everything was fabulous when Trump was president.No, it wasn't fabulous.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't vote for him and hope that he does a better job the next time because There's at least a chance that he might.There's no chance that Harris will.That's the thing.Harris is going to do the wrong thing for sure.
Trump might not do the wrong thing in his second term.
You don't know, you don't know, but at least a lot of other things that he believes, you know, he's, you know, he's not a socialist, he's not a Marxist or whatever, fascist like, like Harris, you know, he, he knows something about a free market economy.
I mean, even if he gets stuff wrong and I think he, you know, he's well-intentioned in many respects.So, you know, he'll have an open mind, but you know, Harris is trying to pretend, oh, you know,
I'm going to listen to both sides and I'm you know, it's going to be consensus is all bullshit.She's just trying to get people to vote for her, although Trump's trying to get people to vote for him.Right.
It's all politics, which is what I don't like about it.Why?You know, I'm not I don't run for office.I tried it once.I didn't like it and I didn't win, but I didn't like the whole nature of it.You know, I ran for U.S.Senate.
The way the constitution was first written, the senators were appointed by the state legislatures.That was a lot less democratic and it was a lot better.And I wish it stayed that way, you know, and they were appointed for six year terms.
So if I could be appointed by the state legislature, it'd be a lot easier for me to get to the U.S.
Senate than having to convince 51% of the people to vote for me when I'm telling the truth and they don't understand the truth and all they want is something for nothing.
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Oh, by the way, a point I wanted to make, because this is probably the last podcast before the election. People have asked me, you know, why, you know, I'm a libertarian, so why don't I vote libertarian, right?
Why, or, you know, well, first of all, I can't vote at all, right?Because I live in Puerto Rico, and so because I live in Puerto Rico, I can't vote for president, and I don't have a congressman or a senator.I can't vote.
You know, we have a gubernatorial election, coming up in Puerto Rico.So I'm going to vote in that.And I have a candidate that I prefer.And so I'm going to vote in that.
But I'm going to give the advice that I was giving when I was in Connecticut with respect to my libertarian leanings and what I believe you should do.So the libertarians have a candidate, Chase Oliver, you know, he's on the ballot in all the States.
I think he's just got no chance of winning now. If I could just put a candidate in office, yes, I would put Chase Oliver in office, you know, over either of the two candidates, right?I'd like to get a libertarian in office.
But I know that's never gonna happen.And I don't have the power to just select the next president.All we can do is vote.And most of our votes are gonna get canceled out by some idiot.But, If you happen to live in a state that is not in play, right?
If you live in a state where Trump can't win or can't lose, right?Like California, Trump's not gonna win California no matter what, right?But, you know, there are states that he's not gonna lose no matter what, right?
You can look on a map and you can see, you know, where is it that the probability is 90%, 95% Trump, right? There you can vote libertarian because it doesn't matter.It's not gonna affect the outcome.Don't worry about it.Vote your conscience.
Vote for who you think is the best choice.And I think it's a good protest.Don't vote Republican or Democrat.Vote for the libertarian.
Same thing if you live in a state where Trump doesn't have a chance, where he's got a 10% chance of winning, 5% chance.All right, vote libertarian there.What's the difference?It's not gonna affect the outcome.
But if you're in a swing state, right, you're like in Pennsylvania or I forgot all the swing states, there you gotta vote for not your favorite candidate, but you have to vote against the candidate that you dislike the most, right?
You gotta vote for the lesser of the evils, not that Trump is necessarily evil, but you get my point here.Because if you vote libertarian in a swing state and your second choice is Trump,
you're in effect voting for Harris, because that's what you're doing.You're helping to elect Harris because you're taking a vote away from Trump that he may have needed.
Now, look, any one individual vote isn't gonna make a difference, but I've got a lot of people listening to the podcast.What if 5,000 of my listeners are in a swing state and they all vote libertarian?
That could be the margin of error that tips the state to Harris. And so I wouldn't do that.So if you're in a swing state, even if you prefer Oliver, vote Trump anyway, because you're not really voting for Oliver, you're just voting for Harris.
So you got to try to keep her out.And as I said, personally, I think I'll sell a lot more gold and silver right away if Harris wins.I know that from the past.I'll have a boom of people buying gold.I'll make a lot of money if Harris wins.
I'll probably get more customers from my asset management.People, oh my God, I gotta do something.Harris is gonna screw up the economy, so let me send more money to Peter Schiff.I gotta get more money internationally.I know that's going to happen.
I know that in my own self-interest, I will make more money. in a Harris administration.And I probably have more fun criticizing Harris than criticizing Trump.I mean, I don't wanna criticize him.
I know he's gonna do stuff that I gotta criticize, but it's so much easier for me to criticize Harris, because I get a lot of support when I criticize Harris.
When I criticize Trump, people are mad for criticizing Trump, but I'm not a partisan hack, right?I mean, I have integrity and I have principles.So my life will be a lot easier
If Harris wins, I'll make a lot more money and I don't have to worry about the higher taxes because I'm not paying them.
In fact, if Harris wins, the value of my Puerto Rican real estate, which has already gone up, you know, five, seven X since I bought it, it's going to go up even more because they're going to be flooding into Puerto Rico to try to avoid those higher taxes.
So if I was just trying to vote my pocketbook, I would encourage everybody to go out and vote for Harris. I'm an American, I got American kids, and I care about the country, and so I think Trump is better, right?Again, or maybe not as bad.
Again, we got to go through a huge crisis.Trump's not a panacea.Voting for Trump doesn't get us out of jail free. But it just means that we've got a more competent captain on the ship when we hit the iceberg.
The only thing, again, I'm worried about is he gets blamed for it.That's why I don't like promising the moon, over-promising and under-delivering, getting everybody ready for another Trump miracle.
And then all of a sudden, we're confronted with the reality of a recession, depression, inflation, dollar crisis, sovereign debt crisis.All this stuff can easily happen.
on Trump's watch, and it would be better if there was some preparation, like, hey, things are bad.I know how to fix it, but it's got to get worse first.There's no magic elixir.There's going to be some short-term pain.
I even heard Elon Musk alluding that, hey, we might have some short-term pain.So he knows that. But Donald Trump, I don't know, wants any part of that because it's not good politics.Anyway, that's it for today's show.
I've got to figure out, I've got to get my outfit ready for this party here that's starting not too far from now, not too long from now.I've got to put on my Day of the Dead.
But again, if you like this, don't forget to give me the thumbs up, put some comments.Again, remember, as soon as this is over, listen to my wife's new song.Her singing duo is Laughing Cats.The new song is Jerk.And no, it's not based on me.
At least I hope it wasn't based on me.So give it a listen, Jerk.It's on Spotify.Tell your friends about it so we have more people streaming it, so more people hear her music.And again, Don't forget about our free newsletter.
I'm sure we're gonna be putting out a lot more content as the political race heats up.
But then again, once we know the outcome, if we know the outcome on Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, next week, you can sign up for the free newsletter at shiftsovereign.com.Bye for now.
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