Welcome to the Megyn Kelly show live on Sirius XM channel 111 every weekday at noon east. Hey, everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly.Welcome to the Megyn Kelly Show, and happy Halloween.Everyone has a Halloween tradition, giving out candy.
If you come to my house and you just stick out your bag, you're getting nothing.There's a ritual.There's a routine, kids.And then I'll say, what do you say?And then they'll say, thank you.And I'm like, no.No, it's a very simple transaction.
Why don't your parents prepare you?You say, trick or treat.Then I give you the candy.Then you say, thank you.Anyway. It's just a matter of time before my house gets egged.But I believe in instilling manners.
Maybe you like to just scare the kids in the neighborhood.Maybe you have a haunted house.Or if you're President Joe Biden, you might bite a few babies.That's a thing.Our executive producer, Steve Kracauer, cannot get over this story.
Some moments we have for me, for you, and some we have for him.We'll get to that in just a bit.
Uh, and I want to remind you that we will be live here on the MK show on election night, just five days away from right now, five of them, five Fiverr count them on Sirius XM triumph channel one 11, as well as on youtube.com slash Megan Kelly beginning at 8 PM.
Eastern time.We will have, Oh, such a cast of favorites.I don't know.Last time I checked Steve, what did we have?
40, I don't know, something like 30 of your favorite guests who are going to be here to pop in, to tell you what they think, to track the election results.We've got data gurus.We've got politics gurus.We've got regular people who you know and love.
And we will find out together, I hope, what the next four years will be.We will find out together.I assume you guys will trust me for the coverage after Tuesday if we don't know on Tuesday.
But I'm still hoping, am I the last one, that we might actually know on Tuesday night?And I still kind of believe we might.Maybe I'm crazy, I don't know.
To help us get ready for all of that, we are gonna start the show looking at what the polls are showing us because we've had some whack job polls dropped in the last day or two.Or are they?
To help break down the complicated mixed bag, we're seeing Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling. four years of crushing interest rates, runaway inflation, and reckless government spending, and who is paying the price?You are.That's who.
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speak with one of their debt relief strategists for free.Go to donewithdebt.com, that's donewithdebt.com.Spencer, welcome back.
Megan, thanks for having me again.
Okay, so explain the CNN poll, okay?Because the CNN poll, everything seemed to be kind of going one way, where it was tightening and it was getting a little bit closer.And Trump was tying it up in each state, if not taking a lead.
But that was good for him because he'd been down three or down one.So to be down three and then up one or down three and then tied was good.And then comes this CNN poll.
And I realize that life does not revolve around CNN, but the CNN poll did drop and it's got a big lead in there for Harris in Michigan and in Wisconsin, like plus five in each state.Do you believe it?
Well, Megan, a poll is a range of scores.And so when we put out a poll result of, let's say, Trump up by one point, that range could be Trump winning by four or Trump losing by two.
So when you see a poll that has, let's say, Harris up by five points in Wisconsin, that poll still indicates that, yes, Harris could win by five, she could win by 11, but she could also lose by a point.
So to me, that type of number is really on the outside, the fringe end of what you'd expect. In 2020 in Wisconsin, the polling generally had Biden up around six points, and he won that state by less than one point.
Michigan had a similar type of polling error, and this is not just CNN, but generally across the polls, underreporting the Trump vote.So yeah, when you take a look at some of these polls, they seem a little as an outlier in the fact that
like Michigan or Wisconsin.Wisconsin's been a one point race back in 2016.It was a one point race in 2020.Do we really think it's going to bounce five or six points in a direction when it's been so locked in?
And then if you jump over to Michigan, do you think Michigan is closer or further away for the Democrats than they were in 2020 when Biden wins by just over two points?
This would suggest that Harris is doing better than Biden when a lot of the other polling, particularly the national polling, is also showing the race tightening closer to 2016 numbers than compared to 2020.
Okay, so having dealt with CNN, which you seem to be suggesting may be a bit of an outlier, take it with a grain of salt.And they haven't been doing a ton of polling.
I think their last poll was a couple of months ago, so I don't know if they have their finger on the pulse or what's happening there.But having dealt with that, zoom out and tell us where you think this race stands.
Well, yeah, if we take a look at like the big picture, remember where we were in July and August, where Trump takes this big lead when Biden is faltering and then Harris jumps into the race, and then she appeared to take a big lead of four or five points nationally.
But what we've seen really since that first debate, even a little bit before that debate, is a slow melt of that support for Harris.And what it looks like coming into the election is there's some momentum for Trump
as we enter election day in some of these states.And remember, it doesn't need to win all of the swing states just to get to the 270 mark.
And when you do look at that polling as a whole, for example, Pennsylvania, we don't see many polls having Harris leading in Pennsylvania. You see polls that are tied or they're slightly leading towards Trump.
Pennsylvania is a key state for the Democrats.If they lose Pennsylvania, really difficult road to 270 for Harris.So that's a number that as you take a look at, it looks like Pennsylvania should go towards Trump.
And that would suggest he would have some success on election night.But if Pennsylvania does flip and stays with Harris, that opens up some other pathways that we've been seeing.But the general take
is that Harris is doing slightly worse than Biden in 2020.And the question is, is it worse enough for Trump to be able to overtake her in states like Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, all within a point?
You know, those are all states that ended up within a percentage point.The other states that are a little bit further away would be Pennsylvania and Michigan.But those are also very competitive.
Most of them have it tied or within a point on either side.
Okay, so let's talk about possible paths, because as I was looking at the numbers today, and you can just Google those interactive maps and start clicking on what if she wins these states, what if he wins those states, because I was looking, I compared the path, the possible paths, to the latest battleground averages, taking the
Real clear politics and 538 averages of all polls.And for example, I looked at Georgia.RCP average has Trump up 2.4.538 has Trump up 1.8 in the average of all polls.The latest Emerson poll, which was earlier in October, showed Trump up one.
So it looks tight, but it looks somewhat comfortable given the comparison states for Trump.Agree or disagree?
I would agree.Even with our poll at one point, the previous poll was at three points.And so we were seeing some movement in Georgia, but I think Georgia is a pretty strong state for Trump.
He seems to be getting along with Governor Kemp fairly well at this time.And those numbers are around, I think,
what you mentioned on the aggregate around two to three points, which remember Trump does better in 2016 when he wins the state and then Biden barely takes it in 2020.
Maybe it falls in between those two numbers, but it seems to be leaning towards Trump at this time.
Just the makeup with Kemp should be worth 11,000 votes, you would think.We did see his numbers shift almost immediately after those two patched things up.Okay, North Carolina.There was a report earlier this week.
I don't know how much stock to put in it, frankly, because it hasn't been everywhere and the polls still show North Carolina tight, but there was a report by the Carolina Journal that she had pulled some $2 million worth of her advertising from North Carolina.
And she had made like a $2.3 or $4 million ad buy, and she pulled almost all of it out.And it's not because she's running away with North Carolina.It's not like, she's up 10, this is looking more like Minnesota, so why spend the money there?
But it being as tight as it appears to be in the polls, you also wonder why she would throw in the towel there, given that her campaign is rich.They have a lot of money. So I don't know what's happening in North Carolina.
It's strange to me that she'd pull the ads given what I see in the polls, but maybe you can help me.RCP average has Trump up 1538 has Trump up 1.1.The Emerson poll your group in late October showed Trump up to.
Yes, and so North Carolina is one of those states that Harris is trying to win back from the Republicans.So it's always trying to win, you know, a game on the other team's home field.
And North Carolina would be a Republican home field, like Georgia is a Democratic home field, where they're trying to hold those electoral votes that Biden won, and the Republicans are trying to take that back.
But North Carolina's, I always thought, was a bit of a stretch for the Harris team.This is a state that Trump won in 2016 and in 2020.It's been a state that has been pretty solid.
Remember, it goes for Obama in 08 and then switches back to Romney in 2012.So North Carolina, historically, would be a hard state for Harris to try to break through on.
I know that the Democrats were a little bullish with Mark Robinson, the lieutenant governor gubernatorial candidate for the Republicans.
showing a weak campaign against Stein, thinking that there might be some reverse coattails, but we're not necessarily seeing that in our numbers.
It looks pretty, you know, even though two points isn't a huge, it's still within the polls margin of error, but it's a big number to overcome for the Democrats.
And I think that's maybe why she pulled some of that ad buy out of North Carolina, because if Stein is still only at 12, 13-point lead in that gubernatorial race, that might not be enough to pull her over the top.
And in fact, we see much more tickets splitting when we see folks going on the Trump side willing to balance their ticket that way.So I don't know if it's going to help Harris in that regard in North Carolina.
I mean, I can see a real MAGA voter in North Carolina being like, the lieutenant governor is a hot mess.I don't believe his denials on all of his weird scandal, but I love Trump.I'm not going to make Trump pay for this guy's scandal.
So I guess- Well, Megan, to your point- Yeah, go ahead.
I was going to say, you know, he's been down, Robinson's been down by double digits for months and it hasn't impacted the top of the race.
You know, as you mentioned, those polls have it, you know, tied or one point, it's probably leaning to Trump by about one to two points, but that's going to be a lot to overcome considering the situation.
Mm-hmm.OK, so let's go.We did Georgia.We did North Carolina.Let's talk about Arizona.RCP has Trump up 2.5, 538.Again, this is the average of all polls.And they curate the polls.They don't take any poll in these averages.
They only include the top-notch pollsters with a proven record, like Emerson and others.OK, so 538 has 2.2.So up 2.5, up 2.2 in the averages. Trump up to in early October.What do you think's happening in Arizona?
Arizona as a border state is a little different than these other states we've talked about because immigration is their top issue.
So when we talk about the swing states, it's generally the economy's the top issue at around 40%, but in immigration, it drops down to about 30% and immigration is at 30%.
And then what's also interesting in Arizona, which is different than these other swing states, where females are voting for Harris and males are voting for Trump, in Arizona, both males and females are breaking for Trump.
not by the same propensity like we're seeing of males in other states, but both genders are breaking, which is unusual considering there has been a gender divide in this race.But in Arizona, it's unique.
I think the immigration issue, it separates it from the other swing states.And that's been a state that Trump has been leading for a while.
The Senate race there is different where Gallego seems to have a small but steady lead over Lake, pretty consistent.
So again, the ticket splitting is what we're seeing where they'll go with Trump, even though they went with Biden last time, this is a state where Trump could try to win back those 11 electoral votes.
Wow.I mean, Arizona's gone more and more blue lately.They've got this Democrat governor.They've got Democrat senators.So is Arizona still a red state, would you say?
I mean, I realize it's one of the swing states, but is it, in its nature, do you think it's like, it's more red than blue?
I think the issues are more red, but I think the voters are more purple and they're willing to vote across aisle lines.They're not locked in with one of the parties like we may have seen in the past.
I don't think it's Barry Goldwater country exactly what was back in the day, but yeah, there's an inkling based on the issues, particularly on the immigration side, to try to get that resolved and solved.
And so those line up better with Republican candidates.But as you mentioned, the Democrats do have, they were able to take both Senate races and the governor's race.
So Arizona has definitely been open to the Democratic approach, but they've also rejected too far of a progressive Democrat.And that's what makes the Gallego race really interesting, that he's been able to hold onto that lead.
even though he's a little bit more progressive than where Arizona tends to be.
Yeah, you got Mark Kelly.But, I mean, Gallego, he's definitely a progressive guy, but they just don't seem to be responding well to Carrie Lake for, you know, a host of reasons.She was on the podcast saying, I disagree.
My internal polls say that these polls are wrong.We'll find out very soon whether any of that is true.OK, so that's so so far, based on this discussion, it would appear Trump is actually looking good in Georgia, in North Carolina and in Arizona.
And Nevada, remarkably Spencer, seems so far to be leaning Republican.Doesn't mean things won't change over the next five days as the voting continues, but like something incredible is happening in Nevada.
Well, Nevada, you know, used to be more of a swing state and it's become more Democrat over the last, you know, six to eight years.
Obama helped make it more Democrat, but they've been pretty strong at like two, two and a half points for Clinton, two, two and a half points for Biden.Now the race is much tighter.It's about a half a point.
I still think it leans towards Harris, but Trump has made up a lot of ground.Again, the Senate race seems Jackie Rosen's got a stronger lead over the Republican Brown by a couple of points.
So you're not seeing any coattails from Trump moving down perhaps, but that's a state where I think the Democrats can still hold it.It's six electoral votes, which are important, but it could also swing.
It's really rolling the dice there in the silver state.Those polls have been really tight.Now, what's interesting there is that you've got this huge Hispanic population and Hispanic polling is really difficult to do.
Some Hispanic in the Hispanic community, they're much more. not as confident of taking the polls.They're not willing to answer the phones or give out that information.And so sometimes that polling can get a little wonky out there.
But what we've seen is a pretty consistent close race between these two candidates for a couple of months.
But what I'm basing my comments on are the John Ralston reports on how the early voting seems to be going.
And it seems, we discussed this with Charlie Kirk yesterday, like the Republican votes coming in are exceeding anything they've seen in the past.
and from counties that they didn't expect, like the Democrats so far, the response in Clark County, which is where, that's how they win the elections out there, right?Clark County, it's the Vegas district.That's how the Democrats win.
The Democrat response has been lower and the Republican response has been higher than they anticipated.So right now, if you're Trump, you have to be feeling better than you've ever felt before about your chances in Nevada.
You do.And those early voting numbers that you've referenced, it's important to see the Republicans, I believe are plus five.
They're about 39% of the vote versus 34% for the Democrats in these early vote, which is counter to where the Republicans were four years ago.
Now, are they cannibalizing their election day vote or is there even more Republican vote that's going to come out? If that's the case, then Trump will take the state because he's leading right now in the early voting.
I presume the Democrats will get a push through their culinary unions or other groups out there to try to match that vote.
But those are important numbers to follow over the next few days because if the Democrats don't match that 39%, the conventional wisdom is the Republicans will have a better day of get out the vote effort.
and should be able to maintain whatever advantage if they have one on election day.
Well, it'll also really be interesting to see whether the culinary unions and so on do what the Teamsters did, where the pressure from the top is to get out and vote and to vote blue, but the rank and file don't listen.
They don't want who the people who are running the union want, and they go into the voting booth and they do what they think is right. So, you know, it's just with Trump, it's not as clear cut as it used to be when it comes to the union vote.
So even that, I don't know.I'm not sure the Harry Reid union machine is going to be as helpful to the Dems as it has been.
I think that's a great point, Megan, and it's not just in Nevada, it's Michigan, it's Pennsylvania.What we're seeing is this whole change of the electorate happening right in front of our face.
And sometimes you don't recognize it when the wind's blowing in all these directions, but I can see the working, the union votes shifting a little bit from left to right, and then more of that elite, higher educated vote shifting a little bit more from the right to the left.
And we'll see how it all balances off on November 5th.But it seems as if the electorate is being shaken up this election cycle.
OK, so of the four states I just listed, which would give Trump the presidency, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, which is the one most likely to go blue and not red?
Yeah, okay, so that would be six electoral votes over to the blue side, and that would mean Trump would need to win one of the blue walls.He would have to win Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, which are tougher, I think.That's a tougher road.
I mean, again, Nevada, as you point out, is more of a blue state, but given the weirdnesses we just discussed, might not be ungettable for him.So which of the three blue walls is he looking the best in?Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania?
So in our polling, we've seen him strongest in Wisconsin.And Wisconsin was a state that he lost by half a point.Remember, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he loses by a larger amount, about two points in Michigan, about a point in Pennsylvania.
Remember, Nevada is a state where, in 2020, Nevada is a state where Biden wins by just over two points.So out of those states, Wisconsin was the closest of them.
And what we've seen pretty consistent in all of our polling is a zero to one point Trump advantage. And it's not a huge advantage, but we have consistently seen in Wisconsin polling underrepresent Trump.
So in all of the polls, not just the Emerson poll, every poll out there generally has underrepresented Trump in 2016 and again in 2020. And when I say, it's like five points, six points.
So to me, anything in Wisconsin that's tied, the conventional wisdom is that Trump will take it because we're under-representing.It's not intentional.We're on to capture everybody's opinion.
But it's just historically, you got to look back at your track record and say, what states are harder to poll than others?And that happens to be, it seems, one of those states.
Why is Wisconsin so hard?And by the way, Trump is working in Wisconsin.That's where he was just last night in the garbage truck, in the garbage suit, praising Brett Favre, you know, all for good reason.But why is Wisconsin so hard to pull?
It's hard to know.We would have to do more research into it.But when we look at our poll results, then when we look afterwards, what we find is that the white male misrepresents their vote total.
So in the past, they've underrepresented their interest in Trump.And so we're We monitor that group and see if they're voting more consistently this time around.
But that's what we've seen in the past is, you know, a couple of groups, particularly in the Midwest, they maybe give us answers that they think we want to hear as opposed to what they really think. and that can impact some of these poll results.
It's important that when we're trying to capture opinions, particularly in 2016 and a little bit in 2020, if I asked you if you're a Republican, well, I don't think every Republican is the same these days.
You have the George Bush Republicans, and now you have the Donald Trump Republicans.It's important that what we're seeing in the polling is we can see who they voted for in the past,
We asked them who they voted for, and we're hoping that gives us more consistent numbers that if they voted for Trump in the past, they'll stick with him this time or vice versa, and have the right representation of Republicans.
So we don't want 40% Republicans, but 30% are really more Dick Cheney, George Bush Republicans that aren't in line with never Trumpers.
And so that's where the polling I think can get off where they have, it looks right, but it's the type of people that they have in that sample that are off.And that's what we're looking at internally in Wisconsin.
We're hoping to get a little tighter out there.
You have to have follow-up questions after Republican, like, how do you feel about the UFC?How do you like McDonald's? How do you feel about Diet Coke and Hershey's?Like, whatever, Trump's little nuggets about Trump and see how they react.
Okay, so that was Wisconsin, which I should tell the audience, RCP has Harris up 0.2, 538 has Harris up 0.8, and Emerson Poll in late October showed Trump up one.
Okay, so now we're still talking blue wall, which one of which Trump would have to get if he does lose Nevada or any of those other states in the Sun Belt we discussed.Michigan. Michigan, RCP says Harris is up 0.5, 538 says Harris is up one.
Emerson poll late October showed Trump up one.
Michigan is super important and super weird this cycle in terms of, I don't know, it just seems like with the Muslim vote and they seem to be warming up to Trump and we had that mayor of Dearborn or near Dearborn endorse Trump and he was Muslim.
And a lot of Muslims polled say they believe Trump will end the war in the Middle East faster than Harris would.And we had Charlie Kirk on yesterday saying there are a lot of Muslim men who frankly don't want to vote for a woman.
There's still a strain of sexism in certain areas of the country and certain religions, certainly.So what do you make of Michigan?
So Michigan is probably Harris's strongest state, but probably a toss up.And it's her strongest state because she won it by the most out of these swing states back in, or Biden won by the most in 2020.
So this is a state that she's going to try to carry. This is a state where Trump won in 2016 by less than a percentage point.So he's trying to win this state back and he's shown that the state's willing to vote for him.
They've also shown willing to vote for the Democrat.I think last cycles, the midterms gubernatorial election was a bit of an outlier where Whitmer wins by over 10 points.I don't expect Michigan to be a 10 point state.
Even in the Senate race- That was abortion. This seems to be closer to a two to three point race.But again, I think Harris is slightly underperforming where Biden was in 2020, even in Michigan.
So I don't think she's as high as that two point lead that he had.It could be at a half a point, a point.And it certainly could go over to Trump by a point or two.
It's all within that range of scores that we talked about at the beginning where you could have a poll at five points on one side and one point on the other.
The polls are all maybe within that margin of error if that candidate wins by, let's say, two points.We'll obviously have to wait until maybe November 5th or after to find out what the final results are.
Okay.And that leads me, my friend to Pennsylvania, uh, Pennsylvania RCP shows Trump up 0.85 38 has Trump up 0.4 and Emerson poll in late October showed Trump up one.And there's, uh, now a Monmouth analysis out.
a poll from October 24th to October 28th showing it tied.It's only 824 Pennsylvania registered voters in here, not a huge amount, and a 3.8 percentage point margin of error.
The headline out of this poll is, Trump's prospects hinge on low propensity voters.
So before I get to that, because I do want to talk to you about, you know, the Trump's challenge of getting the guys up off of their couch to get them down to the, you know, the polling station where women tend to run and men tend to like, eh, I don't know.
And that's a challenge for him.Before we do that, let's just do to Pennsylvania on a more macro level.And these numbers, this has been the tightest state, it's been the most contested state.
Each one will be devastated if they see it goes to the other. her especially, Kamala especially, but where do you think Pennsylvania is?What are you thinking about?
Yeah.So Pennsylvania to me is the, the, the keystone state of the election.Um, and everybody's been watching it for a while.This was Biden's home state in, in, in a sense, uh, Scranton.
And it was one that he was able to wrestle back from Trump by about a point.And again, it seems as if Harris is running a little bit lower than where Biden was last time, particularly in minority groups. where the vote isn't as strong.
And that is a gender divide as well that we see there.But we do notice that those numbers are slightly under and older voters.Biden did slightly better with those over 70 compared to what we're seeing with Harris right now.
And so that's why we see that, you know, Pennsylvania is a toss up slightly leaning towards Trump as her numbers are slightly under. performing where Biden's were, and I'm not sure where the bounce is going to come back from her.
If you notice at that poll, in the aggregate of those polling, When's the last time Harris was leading in Pennsylvania in one of these polls?Generally, it seems to be tied or slightly towards Trump.So we'll see.
Maybe there is this hidden female vote that the Democrats have discussed that might come out.And again, these races are close enough that if there's a two point, you know, vote, there's 160,000 people that are part of that hidden vote.
But what we've seen over the last eight years is that Trump has the hidden vote.And we'll see if it reverses this cycle.But if not, Pennsylvania seems to be a pretty a pickup opportunity for Trump as well.
Well, now's as good a time as any to discuss the weirdness of the polling.In 2022, we expected the red wave.It didn't come.They had been obviously overestimating Republican support expected at the polls that year.
And we were all shocked to see it did not materialize.We were used to them underestimating the Republicans, at least when Trump's around.And in this case, in 2022, they overestimated it was post Dobbs.
The electorate was pissed and women did turn out to the polls to make that clear in places like Michigan.
The big thing, of course, was Trump was not on the ballot, so he didn't really give the low-propensity voters a lot of reason to get off the couch and go to the polling station.But it's not 2022 anymore.He's back.He's done the McDonald's.
He's done the garbage truck.He's doing everything a candidate can do to create that warm, fuzzy feeling in the hearts of his voters, like, I love the guy, and I must help him.So how do we reconcile polling errors of the past
where we don't overestimate the Trump vote now as a way of correcting the underestimation of Trump in 16 and 20.It's another way of asking, are the polls right?
Yes, and so they'll be within the margin of error, I presume, 95% of the time.But this is a historical thing that you've seen.Like President Obama, in 2008, he breaks the record for the most votes ever, 69 million votes he gets.
And that record doesn't get broken until 2020.So it was a phenomenal campaign.And then what happened in 2010?He loses the Senate, loses the House, and then 2012, he comes back and he's on the ticket.
So I do agree that when you have the candidate on the ticket, that's when you're going to pull out that major vote.Now, maybe some pollsters overestimated that turnout in 22, but I would be careful not to expect that same turnout in 24.
So the midterm elections, like in 2018, you don't see that Trump turnout, and the Democrats do really well.In fact, most of the seats that they're defending this year are those seats of 2018, because it's in that cycle.
So they were able to win in that midterm election.This time, they don't necessarily have the wind at their back as much as they did in those midterms.Now it's a little bit more in their face.
And we saw already in West Virginia, potentially in Montana, maybe in Ohio, maybe in other states, some of these Senate seats swinging back to the Republicans, which would be an indication that you do have a different turnout
in 24 than we have in these midterm elections, and you could look at 2018 as a basis for that.
Okay, so interesting.By the way, audience note, we have Sheehy from Montana on the show tomorrow, so that'll be interesting shortly before the vote.All right, so back to that Pennsylvania poll and the Monmouth analysis that I said.
They conclude Harris does best among high-propensity voters.Trump's path to victory relies on turning out enough low-propensity voters, people who don't have a
a very consistent history of getting to the polls, be it in a midterm election, a special election, or even in a presidential election.I mean, I'm thinking if I'm looking at that, I'd rather be in the Harris camp.
I'd much rather have to, you know, my whole base made up of people who never miss a vote.So how does this factor in?
Well, one, it's a presidential year, and that's going to be our highest turnout election out of any election that we hold.So midterm elections, you know, what do we have?About 50, 55% turnout.Here, it should be 60, 60-something percent turnout.
So you have your natural turnout models. That's what's happening with the electorate is that it's not just high propensity, low propensity.
The low propensity is your working class person who doesn't vote in these off-year elections, doesn't vote in municipals, doesn't vote, but they vote once every four, once every eight.
In 2016, we saw people that hadn't voted in like 16 or 20 years and came back into the cycle just to vote for Trump.And that's that hidden Trump vote that We continue to miss in both of those cycles.
And the question that the Democrats now have is maybe there's a hidden Harris vote that we're missing in this cycle and that we're overestimating Trump.But based on what we've seen in the past, I'm not there.
If there's going to be a hidden vote, it's most likely going to be the Trump vote.However, just anecdotally, we've noticed
There's a lot more like Trump enthusiasm, number of signs, number of people out there, as opposed to 2016 where there was more of a spiral of silence regarding a Trump supporter.
Here we see that Trump supporter is pretty loud and that we presume that they're going to be engaged in the surveys and the polls. But there is still skepticism amongst Trump supporters to take these surveys and polls.
And that's what might be leading to some of the under or over performance by Trump compared to the poll numbers.
We have dear friends in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, and they I know you can't go by lawn signs, but they were saying they've never seen so many that it's overwhelming.People are wearing it loud and proud.Spencer, I know you've got to run.
What a pleasure.You're great.Thanks so much for being here.
Oh, Megan, thank you for having me.Have a great day.
Yeah, you too.Don't you guys love Spencer?I love Spencer.He's so clear, and he brings you through it in a way that you can really understand.I do want to point out two things I didn't get to with Spencer.
I talked about that Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania, which shows them tied.Quinnipiac just dropped a poll conducted October 24 through 28, and it shows Trump up to 49% to 42 margin of error is 2.1.So it could be in there.
They also showed the gender gap has widened men back Trump by a 20 point margin, women back Harris by a 19 point margin Trump going on all those male podcasts, uh, you know, from Rogan to Theo Vonda,
Our good friend Sean Ryan seems to have helped, that's my guess, because in October 9th, men backed Trump plus 11, and he's almost doubled that.Now he's up at 20.Harris had a 15-point advantage back then.
Now she's gone up just four points with the women.And then finally, in the USA Today, pollsters dropped a new poll on Michigan that had the candidates tied.
So a very different story than that CNN poll showing her up five, which again, Spencer points out could just be a margin of error situation.You know, it's, it's not consistent with any other, of the data that we're seeing.Very fascinating.
We're not going to have to wait much longer, I think, to know the actual data.Nor are we going to have to wait much longer to hear from Stu Brugier and Stephen L. Miller, otherwise known as Red Stees.They're next.
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And if you get a post-purchase survey, say you heard about Cozy Earth from us here at the Megyn Kelly Show. Joining me now, Stephen L. Miller.He's a contributing editor at The Spectator and host of the Versus Media podcast.
He's also a must follow on X. You can find him at Red Steez.And Stu Berger, he's host of Stu Does America for The Blaze.Guys, welcome back.Great to see you.I don't know if you heard any of Spencer, but
There's a little greater pep in my step after listening to him because Emerson polling is right down the middle.They call it like they see it.
They're not, you know, they're not like a Trafalgar where they're trying to like bend over backwards to find it.And I like Trafalgar.Don't get me wrong.I'm not disparaging them, but he seems pretty bullish on Trump's chances in
really seven out of the seven, Michigan being the one that he says might be most likely to go blue, but not to count Michigan out either.I mean, Stu, I know you take a close look at this stuff for the blaze.What do you think?
I think he's right on the money.You're right.Emerson is one of the best at this.I think you're at a situation where it's a really close race.Everybody knows that.I think the momentum is toward Trump.
If I had to be one of the candidates, I'd rather be Donald Trump in this race.That being said, it's really, really close.I think Nate Silver's model, to give an example,
has it at something like a 39% chance that either one of the candidates wins all seven of these swing states.I think it's a 24% chance for Donald Trump to win all seven, and a 15% chance for Kamala Harris to win all seven.
If that happens, it's going to feel to all of us like it's a blowout.We're going to have over 300 electoral votes.Everyone's going to be saying how this is a mandate.At the end of the day, though, it's a really close election.
It really could go either way.It's Halloween, and I'm scared.
What do you think, I mean, what I was saying to Spencer was, just looking at the map right now, it looks like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, sorry, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are, I don't wanna say Trumps, but are definitely leaning Trump.
Those are three states in which I think he has a very solid chance of winning.And then I think Nevada so far looks amazing.Spencer said he thinks Nevada could still go blue.It has a history of going blue.It's not like a red state.
It's just that the early voting data seems better than expected for Republicans.But what do you think of that analysis, Red Stees?
Because I think Trump could do this with just the Sun Belt, just those Sun Belt states, and wouldn't even need to touch any of the Rust Belt, which I think he probably will anyway.
Yeah, I'm not a huge polling or election prognosticator.
There's one detail I think people are really overlooking, and this isn't a conspiracy, this isn't mass voter fraud, this isn't stop the steal or anything, but in six of the states that Trump needs to win, if Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada,
North Carolina all have Democrat governors with Democrat appointed Secretary of States.Michigan's already said, we're not going to have our results for two weeks.Pennsylvania doesn't even start counting mail-in ballots until Election Day.
And so I'm kind of out here looking at, if you're out here saying that Donald Trump is a fascist and he's the next Hitler, are you guys really going to obey every election law and certify Hitler?
You saw Mark Elias, who is a Democrat powerhouse lawyer.He's also part of Kamala Harris's election team.He's the guy that led the charge to get Trump thrown off the ballot in places like Michigan and Colorado, where it almost succeeded.
And you just saw how in one of these states, they basically said they're going to be allowed to count ballots even three days after the deadline, the legal deadline.
And I think that this is something that is laying a blueprint where even if ballots come in postmarked that shouldn't be counted, we just saw what happened in Michigan with a Chinese national who cast a vote and he's being charged with a crime, but Michigan's sitting here going, his ballots already been counted, nothing we can do.
I don't think people are preparing themselves for the amount of shenanigans that are going to happen.And this is not a conspiracy.This is not Donald Trump screaming about voter fraud, and it's not.
This is about, again, the rhetoric matching the actions.
And if Donald Trump is Hitler, and if he's a fascist, do you really think that Whitmer, Shapiro, Evers in Wisconsin, Hobbs in Arizona are just going to go ahead and go, well, I guess we have to certify the election for Hitler?
So I didn't mean to kind of throw you a curveball here, but I know I'm not sitting here saying like all this talk about polling and stuff like in Trump's close and he may eke out Michigan.I'm sitting here going.
This is why local elections are so important.This is why, you know, losing Arizona with Kerry Lake as a governorship and.
2020 was so important because five or six of these swing states all have Democrat governors with Democrat appointed Secretary of States So if you if you guys think that this is all good, it's gonna be neat and tidy and Oh election night up there went Pennsylvania.
Nope there went Michigan for Trump I think you guys need to buckle up because we're about Still three months out from knowing who's actually gonna win this election at most likely.We'll get kicked out.Oh
Yeah, it most likely will get kicked up to the Supreme Court.And now you understand why all of these stories about Alito and Thomas are coming out.Now we have another one from Jane Mayer, who's out here.
Alito belongs to some Catholic men's group, and they're trying to make it sound like it's Opus Dei. And so they're on the ground.
Good, because you can't get rid of the Supreme Court.I hope it does wind up in the Supreme Court.They can ignore the first time in forever.
We finally control that six to three and they can cry liberal tears when it goes up there because those justices will do the right thing. Sorry again for the bus kill, but the Supreme Court.It is a bus kill, but still, I don't know.
I'm, I'm Pollyanna-ish on it, I guess.I actually think we might learn as soon as election night.And I think it could potentially be a blowout.Sadly, it could be a blowout either way.But I still think we actually might know on Tuesday night.
Do you think I'm nuts?What do you think?
I think there's a...I'm kind of with you in the idea that it is actually really possible.I mean, it's not crazy to see that, you know, if Trump has the normal polling error in his favor, there's a really good chance that we know.
For example, if he wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania early, and he knows it, we kind of can sense that by one or two points. There's a good chance that he has won the electoral college.
Steven pointing out that all sorts of shenanigans happen afterwards.Who knows with that?But I think it's definitely possible.If a polling error goes in Trump's favor, he probably sweeps all seven of those.And if he does that, you're going to see a
Maybe not.We're not maybe completely sure.Like in 2016, we weren't completely sure.Still, some people calling for Hillary Clinton not to, you know, concede.But we pretty much knew.And I think that sort of thing is is possible.
I will say, though, we knew we just couldn't believe that's that was the problem in 2016.It was like there's no effing way that just happened.What?Right.Then in 2020, it was a little bit more clear.But Trump That could happen.
What happened in 2020 could happen this year, where you go to bed thinking one candidate won, and you wake up finding out another one has won because of the mail-in vote, which I think will be substantial, but not as substantial as it was in 2020 during that peak of COVID.
So that's why I feel a little bit more rosy about the possibility of knowing on Tuesday night.Now, maybe that's just my history of covering lots of elections on Tuesday nights for Fox News, and we always knew.
So I'm kind of trained to believe we could know.Things have changed, as we know. OK, I have spent a lot of time suggesting Trump could win.It is also possible that Kamala Harris could win.
And there is a question about whether the polls are right at all, whether we should be listening to the polls at all.Here's Harry Enten over on CNN in SOT 2.
So I went back and checked out whether or not a party outran the polls three presidential election cycles in a row in the key battleground states.It's never happened.It's never happened.Zero times.Zero times since 1972.
So if the polls are going to underestimate Donald Trump, Once again, that would be historically unprecedented.Now, maybe you want to make the argument that Donald Trump himself is historically unprecedented.
But what normally happens is the pollsters catch on.Hey, we're underestimating.We're not taking into account some part of the electorate.They make adjustments.
And I think that helps to explain why we have never seen that the same party has been underestimated three times in a row in presidential elections, at least over the last 52 years.
If we went back to 2020, right, all the polls, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, those three key Great Lake Battleground states, they favored Trump by a wide margin.But there was this group of pollsters that actually had Trump out ahead.
And indeed, Donald Trump's best polls in 2020 were eight points better than the poll averages in those states.So there was this idea, this universe, hey, maybe the averages are really underestimating Donald Trump.
This time around, the question that I had was, are there still these polls that may indicate that the averages are really underestimating Donald Trump?This time around, there's really not the evidence for it.
The best polls for Trump actually only have them running about three points ahead.
So I wouldn't be surprised if even this is indicating, hey, wait a minute, these polls that suggest that Trump will do better than the average are actually too good for Trump. And what do we see in 2022 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin?
Well, it turns out that the average poll in those states actually underestimated Democrats by four points.
Because if it turns out that the polls underestimate Donald Trump or underestimated the Democrats, excuse me, like they did in 2022, what happens?Well, Kamala Harris wins a sweep because she wins all these Great Lake Battleground states.
She wins down in the Southeast and she wins down in the Southwest and she gets the 319 electoral votes.
How do you like that for a possible outcome, Steven?
I think it's all Calvin Ball at this point.I do agree with Stu that the race seems, the momentum seems to favor Trump.There was a great post somebody had on Twitter that said in 2016, Trump was having fun.In 2020, Trump was not having fun.
In 2024, Trump is having fun again. And so I look at this and I go, again, I'm not a pollster.I'm not an election prognosticator.I would say what Stu said.If you wanted to be the two candidates right now, who would you rather be?
And I think I would rather be Trump. with North Carolina, Georgia, and then I was paying attention to Nevada, some of these states here, and now there's even talk that Colorado was kind of leaning towards red, so if that happens, look out.
I think the idea that, yeah, that all seven of these states are gonna go one direction, I think is not likely, and beyond that, I can't give you much expert analysis.
All right, Stu and Steeze, stay with me.And after this break, we will get to Trump, garbage, Kamala Harris' meltdown over Trump's comment on protecting women, and Biden eating the feets of babies.
The feet, it happened.You won't believe the video, but we'll show it to you.
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Affordable.Visit gcu.edu. First of all, happy Halloween again to everybody just tuning in.
And don't forget, we are live right here covering election night for you on youtube.com slash Megan Kelly and on Sirius XM, Triumph Channel 111, starting at eight.Tonight, I will be going as hot garbage.That will be my Halloween costume.
I think you're really gonna like it when I post it after the fact.I decided to do what all the young gals do, even though I'm not young anymore, and not just make it garbage, but hot garbage. That's what every woman seems to do.
You could go as a burger.You have to be a hot burger.You could go as a cow.There was a picture in the New York Post yesterday of some woman who's going as a hot cow. So I'm going as hot garbage, which actually is a thing.Okay.Anywho, um, garbage.
Trump did the right thing and leaned in.He wore the garbage vest.He got in a garbage truck.He held a quick mini presser from the garbage truck.Here's a little bit of that in Sapphore.
I think the Democrats have done a very poor job.We're leading in every state.We're leading big.And I think that the comment made by really both of them, because there are really two of them, about being garbage, maybe 250 million people.
They shouldn't be talking.That's like deplorable.This is the deplorable for Hillary.And I think this is worse actually.For Joe Biden to make that statement, it's really a disgrace.I love Puerto Rico, and Puerto Rico loves me.
I don't know anything about a comedian.I don't know anything about the comedian.I don't know who he is.I've never seen him. I heard he made a statement, but it was just a statement that he made.He's a comedian.What can I tell you?
How do you like my garbage truck?This truck is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden.
So first of all, one of the great things about Trump that goes under recognized is that he tells you exactly what he wants you to think. That's effective messaging.It's worse than Hillary's deplorables.It is worse than Hillary's deplorables.
He wants that in your head.And the garbage thing, it's that bad.Over and over telling you how you should think about it.That's the genius of Trump and that picture right there of Trump in the...
garbage truck that reads Trump make America great again on the side 2024 with the American flag flying large and blowing in the wind from where he is.It's another iconic photo, just like the one of him in McDonald's.It is another iconic photo.
So then Trump goes and holds his rally in Wisconsin and he tells the story.This was, this, this is just classic Trump.
of how this whole thing came about, the truck and the vest, which he is still wearing inside the rally arena while he tells the story.
And I come into the arena and I say, where's my jacket?I want to get out of this thing.And they said, it would be unbelievable if you could wear it on stage.And I said, no way. I've got 25,000 people standing outside.I got all these people here.
There's no way I'm wearing it on stage.They said, Oh, OK, sir.I said, Get me my jacket.But if you did, you know, it actually makes you look thinner.I said.And they got me.I said, I want to wear it on stage.
When they said I looked thinner, I said, in that case, I'll wear it on stage.
It's classic, vintage, right on point.And then he adds the following about the difficulty in getting up into one of those huge garbage trucks, which would be hard for most people.
And, you know, Trump's not exactly the slimmest man.And it talked about how it was a little bit challenging for him.
So I said, man, if I don't get up there, this is going to be very embarrassing. These stupid people, they'll say, he's cognitively and physically impaired.And I can't do that when I'm alongside of this great athlete, I gotta get up to that.
So, so look, so the stair, the first stair is like up here.I'm saying, shit.So, so I had the adrenaline going and I made it. And then I gave a little news conference from the front of, you know, they ask their wise guy questions and everything.
And then we drove about two feet.I got out, got in the car.
I didn't know Hitler was so funny.I mean, that is a hilarious Nazi right there.It really it really is.
You know, I would say if I was in the meetings before they started scheduling this thing, the McDonald's thing, you're going to go on stage in your garbage outfit. I think as a campaign advisor, I'd be like, no, dude, please don't.
You're going to look like Dukakis with his head out of the tank.It's going to be terrible.And there's just something unique about Trump where he can pull these things off.I mean, this was endearing.He's a funny, endearing guy when he wants to be.
I think if you look back to 2016, Stephen kind of mentioned this earlier, if you go back to 2016, he was kind of this new guy and he had his funny moments.He was still sort of an entertainer to most people.
And then 2020 was sort of like, you know, it was a little darker, was more of an insult comic version of Trump at times.
right now he's just got the vibe right this is that this is smart campaigning putting him on these podcasts it's where he shines he's able to be honest and trying to be you know authentic i mean kamala harris is completely incapable of having moments like we just saw she's not
She can't do it.And because she can't do it, she can't go on Joe Rogan podcast for three hours.She can't have these moments that are connecting with people.And Trump, you know, look, it's still very close election.A lot of people hate his guts.
He may very well lose, but it won't be because he's Hitler.It won't be because any of that stuff is true.He's a pretty entertaining guy.And that's why, you know, he was one of the most famous people in America before he started running for president.
You know, Stephen, we're getting to know Trump in a way many people have never seen him before.
He's talking about his personal life more, like on Joe Rogan, you know, his reaction to the White House, some of the behind-the-scenes things that we saw in, say, Tucker Carlson's documentary, Art of the Surge.
Even some of the behind-the-scenes video that they've released of him with his boys backstage of the one debate, you know, calling them sweetheart and honey.Like, his grown boy's sweet. And then this, right?He's self-deprecating.
He's making fun of his size.He's making fun of how hard it would be to get into a garbage truck like that, his vanity.I think this is actually very effective.
And to Stu's point about the Dukakis thing, Ian Sams, the spokesperson for the Kamala Harris campaign, just a complete
Hack tweets out, who would have dreamt that he'd have not one, but two Dukakis moments in one campaign, putting out the pictures of the McDonald's picture and him in the truck, like completely not getting it.
And in that one tweet, you look and you think, I'm starting to get why they're doing so poorly.Like, I don't know that Kamala Harris is all that well-served by this team.
Ian Sams is the comms guy who famously put out the Juicy Smollett lynching tweet.And so that just so you know who the context of who that is.Yes, he is.What?You generally you just Oh, yeah, 100%.
You generally know how effective Trump's stunts are based on the reaction of the people who don't like him. And this has been the case for years.And this took me back to 2016 when people didn't think he was going to win.
It's like, how can we actually go for this?There was an interesting moment.You may not remember it, but Trump went to Pennsylvania and he stood in front of like a wall of garbage.
And you had several journalists and people in the media like clowning on him about the advance team.
And they're like, who thought this was a good idea for Trump to go to this garbage plant or recycling plant or whatever it was and stand in front of this wall of garbage?
And then he also did a thing where he put on the hard hat and they all kind of goofed and clowned on it.And it worked and he won and he won that state.And so you
I take things like this – they're funny and they are political stunts, but you take things like this and to kind of echo what Stu said, Kamala Harris could be doing this stuff.
The whole McDonald's thing was both a, hey, I kind of want to go and do this, but it's also a thing to question if Kamala Harris ever worked at McDonald's, which nobody is saying she hasn't.There's just no evidence that she has.
She could have gone and done that.And this is to me kind of why this is effective, is like what he said.Trump can go on Joe Rogan and just, you know, BS for three hours.Kamala won't do that for one reason or the other.
Trump can go to McDonald's and work the fry.The fact that she let him get in front of that before her, is mystifying to me.And so I looked at this thing from 2016, when again, he's at this recycling plant in Pennsylvania.
We'd never seen a Republican do that.We didn't see Mitt Romney, you know, stand in front of like just a wall of recycled aluminum and talk to voters.And that's kind of the whole effectiveness of what Trump did in 2016.
We can go through the antics and we can go through the brashness and all of that.But Trump started talking to voters that the Republican Party hadn't been talking to for decades.And that's why he is effective at doing these kinds of things.
We can laugh at the gaudiness of the orange vest, but that hits different for people.He's somebody who, he's largely allowed to rise to power in the Republican Party because he's speaking to people that the Republican Party has ignored.
That's right.I mean, honestly, one of my questions for Donald Trump at that first debate, I think it was at the first one back in 15, was how long have you been a Republican? Because Trump wasn't.
He was a Democrat, but Trump was just kind of more nonpartisan.He had his issues that he cared about, and he understood, and he mentioned this on Rogan.Like, you kinda gotta run, you gotta pick one.You can't run independent, it doesn't work out well.
So he picked Republican, and instead of him falling on his face and the Republican Party squashing him, he bent the Republican Party to his will, and it's now his party.
And that's why he's getting such a different coalition, they're putting him over the top.
He just likes slapping the crap out of politicians.That's it.And no base feels more betrayed right or wrongly by their politicians than the Republican Party.And Trump just tapped into that.
He just went up on stage and made fun of Marco Rubio and made fun of Rand Paul and made fun of Jeb Bush.And that's really all that the voting base wanted at that point.
Now, not everyone took so well to Trump's appearance last night in the garbage truck.
I give you Nora O'Donnell, who seems to be on like, I don't know if she got some sort of, maybe she was jealous of her co-host of that vice presidential debate, Margaret Brennan, for getting all of the criticism from
anybody who was paying attention for that debate.Maybe she wanted to be in the news more for her bias because she seems to be on a string, like a streak of getting as hardcore leftist as possible in her last waning months in the anchor chair.
Here she is last night on the CBS Evening News.
He landed in Green Bay just a short time ago and then pulled this campaign stunt, speaking to reporters from a garbage truck.
Proof that he and his supporters are giving no grace to a gaffe by President Biden, where he, in his explanation, inadvertently called Trump supporters garbage.
This, of course, was in response to that racist joke about floating garbage told at a Trump rally just last weekend.
Vice President Harris is distancing herself from the negativity and trying to drive home her unifying message that if elected, she will represent all Americans.
Oh, my God.It's different hearing it.I saw it written in my packet.
It's, that is amazing.That's really incredible.God, she had everything in there about, like, that would show the bias.That's like his campaign stunt.He gave no grace to poor Biden, who clarified.
Meanwhile, here's Kamala Harris with her unifying message.Oh, and a joke was told, a racist joke, at a Trump rally without attributing it to some comic nobody's heard of.Like, who told the joke?Could have been Trump, right?
Everything's in there, Stu.
Yeah, it's so true.And it's like, if you go back and you look at like the way they reacted after 2016 in the media, I think you get a real window into what's happening right now.
In 2016, there was this idea that, and it's part of the hell of my life is to have to watch the mainstream media every single day and react to it.
And when you saw the reaction after 2016, there was this idea that maybe people would kind of wake up and say, well, maybe we are in a little bit of a bubble here.Maybe we don't recognize what's going on in the rest. of the country.
There was this sort of, you know, don't take Trump, literally take him seriously thing.And maybe we need to wake up a little bit and understand, like, what's the real motivation of irregular people in the center of the country?
And you thought that might be what they took from it, if they were being honest.But of course, they didn't go that direction.Instead, the lesson they really took out of that election was to say, we should have never covered the Hillary email scandal.
Because the fact that we gave any opening at all to that, even though most of our coverage was to disprove it or say it wasn't a big deal, the fact that we alerted to anyone to that at all kind of puts the blame for this Trump thing a little bit on us.
And next time, we're not going to let that happen. We saw as we got to 2020 with the Joe Biden laptop, they didn't let it happen.Right.They shut it down.They didn't cover it.They banned people from tweeting it at the time.
They did all the things they needed to do because they look at this as almost like a legacy.Right.I can't be seen as someone who didn't do my part.
My part was to make sure every single word I said pointed people to the right direction, led those stupid horses to that glorious water.And they tried it, they've been trying it.
I think the American people have woken up, but you have to think if you go back a decent amount of time before the internet, all this stuff probably would have worked on the American people.
Thankfully, there's at least a way for us to push back and get the truth.And I just don't think stuff like Trump is Hitler is going to be effective in this environment. I hope I'm right, but you know, of course, who knows.
You know what's amazing though?Cause like this one's not even Trump is Hitler.It's just like the bias in every phrase that she offered was readily apparent.
And trust me, I have sat in front of these cameras on network news and I know exactly how it works.At that level, they have a writer who takes the first crack at the script.
Then you would have a producer and on CBS Evening News, you'd have an executive producer look over the script before it went into the prompter.
And you would have the anchor look at the script before she read it to make sure she's comfortable with what she's about to say. So at least that level of review happened before Norah O'Donnell got out there and said it was a campaign stunt.
He gave no grace to poor President Biden, who's clarified the remarks, and he was only responding to that racist joke that was told at the Trump MSG rally, by whom, I'll leave it to you to figure out, could have been the big man himself.
And oh, by the way, here's Kamala Harris with her unifying message.It's dripping with bias.It's obvious for enough for a five-year-old to see.And they saw it, too.They just don't care.They know she's not winning.
She might be tied, but she's not winning. And they truly are in a panic.They will do whatever they can now to stop her.And that was reminding me of Stephen's opening point.I want to give you a little bit more.
Lawrence O'Donnell will not be outdone on the excuse-making for Joe Biden.And here was his take on how Joe Biden didn't really say that half of the American people, those supporting Trump, are garbage, SOT 8.
do so, they had to refuse to listen to the actual sentence Joe Biden spoke.They had to refuse to look at the written words of that sentence.They had to refuse to understand English grammar.
They had to refuse to understand what a singular possessive is.They had to refuse to understand what apostrophe s means.They had to refuse to Remember what they learned in elementary school about the English language.
The terrible campaign reporters and commentators who are covering this campaign, it's not all of them, just the terrible ones, are completely exploitable by Donald Trump, and Donald Trump knows it, which is why Donald Trump, the stupidest candidate ever to run for president, climbed into a garbage truck today.
God.Possessive apostrophe gate.
They don't understand apostrophes.That's what went wrong there, Stephen.
Trump went and did like the stunt in the vest in the garbage truck.Kamala Harris needs to come out wearing an apostrophe costume for Halloween.Like watching the American media try to will an imaginary apostrophe into existence is is a top five thing.
And I've been doing this a while.This is a top five thing I've ever seen.And they know how bad this was because you can see the gears grinding in these people about how do we explain this one?
And it's kind of like Sideshow Bob doing the die bar die tattoo on his chest.He's like, no, this is the bar V. No, there's a comma there.You just didn't see it.It's absolutely incredible.And like I said, you can gauge the level of panic
based on how ridiculous their reaction is.And that has a lot to do with Laura O'Donnell.
Hold that thought.Okay, then let me give you another one.You don't like that one?You don't like Lawrence O'Donnell?Why don't we try out Kelly O'Donnell over on NBC?Here's her theory.Stop 15.
If you look at about a minute's worth of the remarks from President Biden when he was speaking to Latino groups last night, that context appears more clear.
Also, it's important to know that the president always has that battle against stuttering, and that seemed to be apparent in this as well.We're left in a position now, as anyone who looks at this, to make their own assessment.
His battle is, his brain is applesauce.
Well, here's what's interesting.It kind of irritates me because I know some people who have stutter and I've seen them stutter.And when they're trying to say something and the stutter gets in the way, They then say the thing again.
They clarify if the stutter actually makes them say something which they didn't mean to say, which is, by the way, not how the stutter works.Then they clarify it the very next sentence.That's not what he did.
He went on and started attacking the guy from a different point of view.He didn't say, oh, I didn't mean to say that half of Trump supporters or that all of Trump supporters are garbage. He didn't do that.He just kept going.
And by the way, even when he, quote, clarified, he said, oh, this is what I meant to say, you know, after the fact, in a tweet that he sent out.He didn't say, you misunderstood me because of my stutter.
Yeah, this is – this also comes after a week after he said we have to lock Trump up and Joe Biden is the head of the Justice Department of the executive branch of the United States government.And so a thing there is Lawrence O'Donnell is who he is.
Kelly O'Donnell is the president and the acting head of the White House Correspondents Association. So she's in charge of all the White House press briefing people and whatever.She's the person who oversees that whole organization.
And so Stu said something that I've been on for a while, that when Kamala was installed into this nomination, they all view this as a 2016 redo.We have to get this one right.So he's right.We're not going to cover emails.
We're not going to cover Doug Emhoff punching a woman in the face in public.
We're not going to cover anything that could be the story that leads to Donald Trump being back in the White House, because the one journalist who does that becomes a pariah.They become a leper in their own industry.
No book deals, no TV hits, no promotions, no shows, no anything. And that is, once you realize that, that's where all of this comes from.And as far as CBS, I hear everyone screaming about bias, and I'm someone who does it all the time.
Republicans need to stop going on CBS.They need to make a unified message that says we are not going to engage with this network anymore.This is not a news network.
When Stephen Colbert is the flagship personality of CBS News, and this is a guy who hosts a propaganda show for the Democratic Party, they're all just kind of following suite here.And so I guess eventually you have to do something about this.
And CBS has been pretty much the most egregious actor, but Norah O'Donnell is the person who hit the mute button on JD Vance during a presidential debate.
Either you guys will learn your lesson or you can just keep engaging in the same kind of behavior and keep screaming about bias.Eventually you have to do something about this.
I mean, I have to say, I kind of respect, I kind of respect the people who are on the left who are like, he shouldn't have taken it back. He should have just stuck with it.They are garbage.Like, that would be more honest, you know?
They won't, right?But I mean, that also happened on CNN.Here's Mark Preston, and then I'll show you Charlamagne.Watch 13.
I'm of the mindset that if you say it, you might as well just embrace it.And I do think that that's a problem for Democrats.If he said, listen, yeah, I do mean all those racist supporters of Donald Trump.Yeah, I do think that they're terrible.
I think that People would look at the Democratic Party a little bit different, that the Democratic Party in general doesn't look like they are strong enough and they will always back off of things.
And I think that when Joe Biden backs off of saying what he really believes, I don't think that's a good look.
I love this guy, Mark Preston.I appreciate him just saying it as he actually feels it still.They're garbage.We all understood that's what Joe Biden meant.Republicans are garbage.And F him for backing down.It makes the whole party look weak.
I mean, it's like Jerry Maguire.Honesty.Thank you, right?That's how I felt watching that.Yes, we all know that that's actually what he meant.Thank you for just saying it.
Yeah, I agree.I mean, come out and say it.I mean, this is explicitly what their closing argument is anyway, right?I mean, if Trump is Hitler and half the country is going to vote for Trump, I mean, were there good people voting for Hitler?
Obviously, they're all terrible, right?I mean, that is explicit in their argument about what the country is made up of.And, you know, Hillary Clinton obviously took a, you know, took a political beating for her deplorables comment.
But what Trump said is true.It wasn't nearly as bad as this.If you go back and listen to the context of Hillary Clinton, she didn't say all Trump supporters were deplorable.
She just said half, half of Trump supporters were in the basket of deplorables. I mean, it's still completely wrong and a terrible thing to say about, in this case, a quarter of the country, but it's better than saying half of them are garbage.
That's where Biden is.No apostrophe is going to get him out of it.
This is the point Charlemagne was making.Charlemagne has really gone over to the TDS world.He was on the show six months ago, and he was kind of like, I don't know, middle road.
He was definitely not a Trump fan, but he didn't sound like this hardcore anti-Trump.But boy, he's there now.Take a listen.
I don't understand why he's walking that back because I mean based off the examples He gave like if you if you so if you are a person who supports those Examples that he gave you are garbage.Maybe I gotta hear it again.
I thought he was being very specific I thought he was talking about people who agree with you know He didn't get there specifically he was trying to like it was a little not nuanced But like any gray area with Biden they're gonna try and grab it
That's his point too, right?Like why wouldn't you embrace it given the overall messaging?All right, let me give you one other thing.Kamala Harris was asked about it.We played her remarks yesterday.
She said, I strongly disagree that we should be judging people based on who they vote for.So good, that was the only possible answer.And then she got asked again, my audience needs to brace itself.And here's how she answered, SOT 12.
Do you sympathise with any voters who do feel offended by or insulted by the garbage comments?
I am running for president of the United States.
I will be traveling to three states today to do what I have been doing throughout, which is talking with the American people about the fact that, first of all, I get it in terms of the concerns they have about challenges like the price of groceries.
Second, my highest priority is to address that and to lift them up around their ambitions, their aspirations and their dreams.
There's the line.There's the line. No.Ambitions, aspirations line.
You know what?Every time.If there are like three college students out there looking for a costume tonight, you could go as that.I'm the ambitions, I'm the aspirations, and I'm the dreams.You could have like a little brother following you with that.
I'm the work ethic.This is all she's running on, just these words, words that have no actual meaning in terms of policy and what she's actually gonna do when she gets in there.What a pivot, right?
He says, do you empathize with any of the people who are feeling offended at being called garbage?And she says,
What I can tell you is I understand they have, right, I come from a middle class family and they have ambitions and aspirations and dreams, Stephen.
Yeah, I still maintain Kamala Harris, the person, doesn't actually exist.This is a performance by an actress.She pantomimes.She doesn't make eye contact.She's always just kind of doing the same gestures for whatever she does.
This is a well-orchestrated circus, and it's a stage show.In the end, it might work.They're really trying to Obama
eyes this woman by having her hang out, spend the final two weeks on the campaign with Hollywood celebrities who are the last people in this country who don't have to worry about inflation or dreams or aspirations.
And so and this is a big thing going back to like Joe Rogan, which is, you know, and Megan, next time I'm on the show, I am going to demand you come to me and we're going to limit this to like 15 minutes.So I'm just going to let you know this.
Um, but it is the sense of entitlement and this is what I don't get about this campaign is just kind of how it missteps every kind of step of the way and how tone deaf it is.
And so she's in a position where she can't distance herself from her boss because her boss decided to put her name right up there next to his with, you know, a little dash in there.
And so when he goes off and he does this and she has to spend three days explaining it, her people are just kind of like, can we just dig a hole in the woods in Delaware and get rid of this guy by now?
And so she's doing this juggling act and unfortunately she is not capable of pulling off the rhetorical tricks of somebody like Barack Obama.
She's like, it's so dumb.Now, this is a no brainer.Yes, I do empathize with them.I can see how that would be really insulting.And again, let me make clear, it's not how I feel.
And I think Joe Biden tried to clarify what he was saying, but let me be perfectly clear on how I feel. That's it.
You don't have to, when someone says something that incendiary, not only do you disavow it, you clobber them over the head with a club and then continue disavowing.
There's absolutely nothing to be gained from leaving any ambiguity about just how grossed out you are about the comments, but she's scared.As always, she's scared and she's supposed to take on Xi Jinping.All right.
The leftist media and their supporters and her supporters, they're also concerned about the Joe Biden comment.It's bad.Trump's not wrong.It is worse than deplorables.
Enter the Lincoln Project and the Lincoln Project, which is this group of, you know, never Trump or former Republicans who are just the most vicious anti Trumpers there are now. tries to change the narrative to Trump said it too.Trump said it too.
And I saw somebody adding me on X yesterday with this as somebody from the Washington Examiner, like Trump said the whole country is garbage.Hello, he didn't. This is a different controversy.
But what Trump said, Venezuela is sending us their prisoners and gang members like we're a garbage can, like the United States is their garbage can.Not the same.Hello.
The Lincoln Project refers to a different issue and puts together the following little bit sat nine.
And it's not her. It's the people that surround her.They're scum.They're scum.And they want to take down our country.They are absolute garbage.
This is from a September rally.So they're pushing that clip out, like Trump called the people around Kamala Harris scum.And by the way, before I get to what he actually said, here's Lawrence O'Donnell again, making the most of it.Uh-huh.
Lawrence O'Donnell, who's like very, very clear that we need to make sure that we study the person's actual statement and we not get it wrong.Here he is responding.
Did Donald Trump mean that everyone who voted for Kamala Harris to be our vice president four years ago is garbage?That's 80 million people.Or did Donald Trump mean the Harris campaign staff?That's hundreds of people.
Or the vice president's White House staff?Dozens of people.Or maybe the vice president's family? Did he mean her husband, Doug Emhoff?Donald Trump has never apologized for saying they are absolute garbage.
Okay.Here is the actual Trump quote from that September rally.
Great patriots have been indicted by Fonny and her boyfriend, and it's a disgrace.Hillary Clinton wouldn't acknowledge the election.All of these senators like shifty shift, but we do it.It's a serious, serious crime.These people are sick.
We got to get them the hell out of there.That was a fraud.818,000 jobs.That's a fraud.If Comrade Kamala Harris gets four more years, you will be living A full-blown banana republic ruled by an anarchy and a tyranny.You're gonna have something.
And it's not her.It's the people that surround her.They're scum.They're scum.And they want to take down our country.They are absolute garbage.
There you go.So he is talking about Fannie Willis, Adam Schiff, Hillary Clinton, people who have tried to deny his election, impeach him and throw him in prison.He named names the people around her.He named the names.
He never said all of her supporters, her voters or anything close to what Joe Biden said that night just two nights ago.Still, but this is I mean, what are you going to do?It's the Lincoln Project.However, this is desperation.
That's what we're watching here.
I think it is desperation.And I would note, too, to Lawrence O'Donnell, if he was talking about Doug Emhoff, if you knock up your nanny and slap women in public, then, yeah, yeah, kind of you are garbage.You are scum.
So I have no problem with that summary.Yeah.And I think, like, they're going to try to make this out to be if they lose, they will say, oh, I can't believe that gaffe by Joe Biden at the end.
Sure, that might be a factor here, but the bigger gaffe by Joe Biden was the four years of his presidency.The reason why this is close is because they've failed on every major issue that matters to people.
You know, you want to talk about a gaffe, go back and look at the people in Afghanistan hanging off the tires of a plane as it goes down the runway.That's a gaffe.A gaffe is 19 percent inflation.A gaffe is people not being able to afford groceries.
A gaffe is, you know, millions of people streaming across the border at will and committing crimes on the American people.
Those are the things that are making this close enough that Joe Biden being a moron and blurting out what he's been thinking in private all the time in public, that's what makes that a problem.
If they were up by eight or 10 points, this wouldn't be an issue.They failed forever.And that's the real problem here.No, there's there's no spin control and no apostrophe that can save them on this.
It's so true, isn't it?It's like you watch a football game and one side is up, you know, thirty four to three. And they're winning and you can see they're going to win.
And when the other side gets close to scoring its second field goal, the winning team will try to stop it.We'll put out the defense.We'll say you're not going to score that point on us.But when that winning team does win.
It's because they played the game properly from the beginning.It's because they ran up the score properly from the beginning.
And right now, what we're seeing with Team Trump trying to fight back against some of this nonsense is they don't want another field goal.They want to keep her score low, so they will fight her disinformation.
But I think if and when she loses, it's going to be because they allowed all those other points to get to 34 before this last week of knits, trying to get like a few points on this and a few points on that.Like this race is already won or lost.
That's my feeling.It's won or lost right now before the next five days.We're just waiting to find out what the final score is and the voters get to tell us.
But these little attempts to like, ha ha, or ho ho, even the Joe Biden garbage remark, I think it's all net net. interesting, and we're fighting for these little three-pointers, but the huge points have already been scored or not scored.
I do want to say something.If you're a kid sitting in an elementary classroom, the last thing you want to hear your teacher say is, enter the Lincoln Project.So along those lines. I think Megan has a point there.
I do think that this is just trying to just generate outrage over the most littlest things.The interesting thing about the Puerto Rican thing and they spent two weeks on Detroit.
Trump basically said Detroit's a hellhole and then Kamala comes out and the media comes out and says, how dare you say that? And this is kind of the whole virtue of the media and the left, which is they run Detroit into the ground.
It's the first American city to declare bankruptcy.It's been single party rule for 70 years.
Everybody knows Detroit is kind of a freaking hellhole, but you pointing it out is more offensive than actually turning Detroit, which was a great city, a great iconic city for American Motors and architecture and everything.
You're not allowed to point out what they actually did to Detroit.It's just offensive that you're observing what they did to Detroit.
And this is kind of the whole dynamic of the American media, which is the Republican sees, Republicans pounce, and all of this stuff.So you're not allowed to point out that the Clinton Foundation basically bankrupted the island of Puerto Rico.
You're not allowed to point out that, you know, Puerto Rico's electrical grid is something that dates back to the 1800s.It's just offensive when you say it.And so, again, this is the whole dynamic that they're working off of.
And it's one that they're going to continue to do here for the next, you know, five or six days.As I said with polling, they're kind of already signaling what's gonna happen here.So like I said, buckle up for election night.
This is not something that, I'm gonna go against the grain with you guys here and say, I don't think that this is something we're gonna know about on election night.
And like I said, I just, I warn that, you know, five or six of these states that Trump needs are all have Democrat governors with Democrat secretary of states.
Yeah, it definitely could matter.All right, let's take a quick break and we'll come back and we gotta talk about Biden eating the feet of babies. It's a thing. Dave Ramsey and yours truly, Megyn Kelly.
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I want to start this segment with a story we talked about earlier this week.
Tucker Carlson, Ben Shapiro, and others, although those two publicly took to X to tell the New York Times to F off for collaborating with the disgusting vile hate group Media Matters to try to censor their shows.
They were trying to gin up support or comment for a story, a hit piece that the Times was doing on these conservative commentators and really on YouTube for airing their, quote, election misinformation.
Well, the New York Times is out with their story today.And to YouTube's credit, it is standing firm that these alleged instances of disinformation did not violate their policies.So good for you, YouTube.
But look, this is only going to get louder and more problematic.Ben posted on X that The Washington Post is working on their own story now, too.
And there's so much uncertainty about what may happen in this political and cultural landscape in 2025 that we're watching it.You know, right now, as you know, you can get The Megyn Kelly Show free.You can listen to us on SiriusXM.
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Okay, we got to talk about Biden and the babies.It's very weird.I know it's Halloween and I know they're babies and they're adorable.We all feel that way.But when it's somebody else's baby, you shouldn't put your mouth on it.
It's kind of a rule.Is that a hard and fast rule?It is?
Hard and fast do.You heard it here first.Here is first where he comes out and he, quote, eats a baby dressed up as a chicken at a White House event.
Somebody added the Jaws music.
It was happening there.They were playing the Jaws music as he ate the baby.The baby doesn't look upset, we should say for the record.
I was going to ask about that.
No, the baby looks fine.I don't know why somebody put the Jaws music on as Biden walked over to the baby and pretended to eat its leg.Well, actually did put the leg, the chicken leg, I guess, in his mouth.
And then there was this one where he ate, again, a baby's toes at the same event.Let's look at this.This is just video.Stand by. Here he goes.She's holding the baby up for him.He grabs the naked foot.He puts the foot in his mouth.
He puts the toes in his mouth repeatedly.That's three times in his mouth.The mother doesn't seem upset, but she promptly walks away with her baby.
I'm sorry, but it is a rule, Steven.You don't put other people's babies in your mouth.
He's just in, you know, DGOF mode at this point.I get people are freaking out about this, but people have to remember the adrenochrome is the only thing keeping him alive at this point.
And so sometimes there's not a baby behind closed doors that is readily available.You just, you have to, you know, you're fading so fast that you just have to just make it look. and steal the essence in front of everybody.
So yeah, I mean, the funniest thing about this, I mean, this is who Joe Biden has always been.It's just kind of like, like, what are you doing, man?And especially around like kids and swearing in ceremonies.We've always kind of seen this, but yeah.
I guess.And I mean, this is another thing.We all remember like Trump putting the candy bar on top of the minions head and that was all funny.
And then here's Joe Biden like treating a baby like it's a, you know, a chicken wings, you know, or whatever.
And it's just like, yeah, at this, even at this point you can tell Democrats are like, yeah, we're, we're, we're ready to be, we're ready to be done with this. This is the baby's foot fully in his mouth.You get the adrenochrome where you can.
What I understood was, especially when they've got a onesie on and they've got their adorable thighs, everybody wants to squeeze a baby's thighs, but normally no man would ever do such a thing.Normally another mom would come over and say, Oh, can I?
And you'd be like, sure.Or you'd be like, oh, he's not feeling well if you didn't want it.But no one ever, and I've had three children, ever put my baby's feet in his mouth.
And certainly not the president of the United States, still.
Yeah, I, to be fair to Biden, I think he may have been a little confused there.He may have thought he was trying out for, is it cake on Netflix?And he thought maybe if he bit into the baby, it would actually be made of cake.
So we don't know for sure his favorite show. I think there's a, there's this thing too, where it's like, if the, if the good looking guy in the office comes in and says, your dress is nice.You're like, Oh, thank you.What a nice compliment.
But if the creepy guy comes in, you're like calling HR.There's a little bit of that here too.Like, you know, if a normal grandpa comes up to your kid, does something adorable.Oh gosh.Oh yeah.That's so cute.
But I put your child's foot in his mouth.No, I don't.
Now we know why he thinks he only has six grandkids instead of seven.We know where the seventh one went.
I really think it's just further evidence that we've lost Biden.That's our current president, FYI.He doesn't know what he's doing.He has absolutely no filter for his behavior or his mouth.I am on Team Harris in her
please that he should stay underground if you know if you wanted her to win of course that's what she should want and what he should do but you know unless he's doing it on purpose i say let him let him go let him get out there time with the babies time with the microphone just say what's on your mind sir you're the sitting president united states you can do it guys thank you thank you megan
Stay safe out there tonight.Yeah.And maybe try it for me.Consider my I think somebody should go like the wife should be the hot garbage and the husband should be the garbage man.
It's not too late to get one of those vests like Trump had all sorts of ideas available to you.OK, so I want to tell the audience that tomorrow we're going to have Nicole Shanahan here.Thanks for listening to The Megyn Kelly Show.
No BS, no agenda and no fear.
