Hey there, audio listener.Last call, the election live stream of the century.Tuesday, November 5th, 6 p.m.Eastern.You already know the pitch.You already know about the electoral integrity map.
You already know about boots on the ground, the cross streams, the guests, the analysts, the news wires that we have.So we look forward to seeing you there.And I mean, see you there because we can't stream live here where you get your podcast.
So you'll only be getting it the next day.It's really something that can only be experienced live.This is going to be It's going to be the place to be.And I know that's redundant, but I don't really care.
The introduction today is a shot for shot parody of Gladiator.It's called Mugliator because we're clever like that.But it doesn't make any sense on audio because it's like four minutes long and a lot of it involves dramatic pauses.
But you do get to see up Gerald's tunic.So I suggest tuning in on Rumble or YouTube.Otherwise, I'll see you Tuesday as we observe the fate of the nation.That was a little dramatic, but you know, it's an election.
I got to get this off there.That's going to bother me the whole time.Someone was working here.You hear the coaster?
I think it was you.It's wood.It's soft pine. It's easy to permeate.
All right, look, hey, really glad to be with you.
This is the last live stream before the election live stream of the century.Tuesday, November 5th, we start at 6 p.m.Eastern, 5 p.m.God's time.It's a huge undertaking.We have something really special for you that night.
We'll get into it more a little bit later as we go through the polling and early voting super breakdown on today's show.
We have some data analysts here and access to some data that not everyone else does, so we're going to be bringing you some exclusive insights, and you can expect more of that on election night.
Want to let you know, I will be on Alex Jones today, Dan Bongino tomorrow, and I believe Pierce Morgan.I like Pierce.It's just going to be awkward to appear on Alex today.You're going to be on with my friend Pierce.He's a pussy boy.Red coat, limey.
Okay, I get it, I get it. And Pierce, fair warning, you're not going to get me to bad mouth my friend, no matter how crazy he may be sometimes.And we do have something special for you tomorrow.I know Thursday.Tomorrow's Wednesday.
Tomorrow is Wednesday.Tomorrow's Thursday.And Monday, we have a documentary of the making of Behind the Scenes. that we've never really let you in with this.Because of the liability.Because so much that we have to do.
We have to pressure test everything as far as the election integrity map that you guys will have access to, all the sketches, all of the pre-tapes we have to do, all the uplinks we have to test with all the cross-streams.
So there's a lot that we have to get right so that if we get banned on YouTuber, if it goes down, you know it's not our fault. So we have the polling, super breakdown today, Whoopi Goldberg's hilarious meltdown on The View.
And then Kamala Harris, Kamala, whatever, was on Club Shay-Shay.Shay-Shay!Shay-Shay.And what I resent Mr. Shay most for is forcing me to say that phrase out loud as a grown man.It's true.
A man chose that name?They call me Mr. Shay-Shay.
No one.Well, his name is Shane and Shay.Sherp.
All right, Sidney Shatier.Nobody ever called him that in real life.Shasha, still not not not nearly as gay, but also gay.Options are limited.
Noodle just jumped in there.I was in a rhythm.Sorry. If at some point, because we are on very thin ice.Remember, we were suspended for the last election.We're in that danger zone right now.
We were suspended, what was it, three days before the midterm election?
Turns out something from two years ago just got us suspended from YouTube.So I guess not.
So you can watch it on Rumble, of course.But if today at any point you see this. head on over to Rumble because it's a live show weekdays 10 a.m.Eastern.Sorry it took me a while to, that was a mouthful I had to get out.
Really excited about this and a lot of good news but get out and vote, get out and do your part.Yes.Let me ask you this though, question of the day.
Do you, are you actually, if you're on the fence, is your primary concern that Donald Trump wants to deport wives of biracial marriages because we're actually going to, that's actually an argument that's made by Whoopi Goldberg.
Yeah, I know, spoiler alert, she says that he will deport wives in biracial marriages and assign the white man to a new white chick.Captain Morgan, number two CEO, how are you?
I'm fantastic, I didn't realize that was a main concern.Well, you're not paying attention.
I'm not woke, you're just a sleep child.We'll call you Mr. Ambien.Lunesta over here.
you done my comedy chops rusty no and then October 20 well no it's not it's it's not October it's a past October 26 I have this written down here different when you hear this you know him you love him and he can put in
It is.The right plug.Come on!
November 15th to 16th at J.P.'s Comedy Club.Mr. Feierstein, how are you?I'm good.I'm good.Yeah?Good.Yeah, it's been a good Tuesday.
Tuesday?Tuesday.Wednesday?Josh, you sure you're gonna be able to go to that date?Like, this show's probably still gonna be going from the election night.
Could be.Well, it's in Arizona, so I could be an on-the-ground correspondent.There you go, could.See what's going on with Maricopa County.
I'll just be there counting the votes.
I'll be there burning ballots.He loves the country.
He loves it.Hey, before we get to that, Mehdi Hassan, you know, guy who allegedly may be, you know, a terrorist sympathizer.By that I mean Hamas and Hezbollah.They got into an explosive argument on CNN.
And then we'll replay this because there's a moment where Ryan, Ryan, isn't his name Gerdusky?Gerdusky?Yeah, something like that. There's a moment where he realizes his career may be over, but first let's just watch the clip.
I don't think it's that bad.
I get it.Nobody wants to be called Nazis.It's very inflammatory.But if you don't want to be called Nazis, stop doing... You're called an anti-Semite more than anyone else's table.
And people... No, by me.I never called you an anti-Semite.I mean, I'm not sitting here saying... I'm a supporter of the Palestinians.I'm used to it.Well, I hope your beeper doesn't go off.The thing is, is that... No, I did not say that.
Oh my gosh, don't do that!Don't do that with a Hamas sympathizer in front of you!
He goes so quickly from like, I said it to, wait, wait, what?No, I didn't say it that way.He's looking to the ref to step in.So here's the moment, the funniest moment to me.
We're going to, we're going to go right up to the freeze frame where you see, he realizes, oh no.
Look it's like come on if this guy is a Hamas supporters.He's not just a Palestinian supporter We'll get into some of that this guy is that and like oh, no, it would only go off if you're a terrorist Are you a terrorist right then?
Of course, I don't want your it's a joke because you're a terrorist supporter You turn to Abby Phillips you say look are you saying he's a terrorist and she says no then we both agree He doesn't have a pager Moot point.
Yeah, he just admitted to having a pager.
Not unless you're a terrorist.Yes, because the most effective way to kill you would be to ensure that your beeper doesn't go off.Yes.It's funny.Are you gonna say it's ill-advised?Granted.But I wouldn't apologize for it.
I was like, yeah, I said what I said, right?This guy, he supports a genocidal regime.
Those guys are just looking for a reason to be offended.I don't even know if I'd go so far as saying it was ill-advised.
It's hilarious, it is pointed, it absolutely makes the point, and the rest of that table, they're offended by anybody who doesn't toe the line.
Oh my God, everyone's offended by everything right now.For crying out loud, the fact that Tony Hinchcliffe is the most searched man in the world for doing what he does pretty much every week on his podcast.
Anyway, CNN disagrees with you because they banned Ryan from appearing on the network ever again.Come on our show, Ryan.Come on.We'll have you They said there is zero room for racism or bigotry at CNN or on our air.I disagree.
There's some room for racism and bigotry.
They filled it already.There's so many correspondents.Our spot is filled.We already have James Carville.
As long as it's directed towards white people or conservatives, racism and bigotry is totally fine.The minute it goes outside of those bounds, that's a problem.
Yeah, even James Carville, we've asked him to be on the show, was even talking about that.
He said, I feel like the Democratic Party is ignoring everything and everything is 80% female.They feel like they've been left out in the cold.I'm not saying we have to have all male.
I'm just saying everything from NPR down is all man bad or woman good.Not all women are good.I've seen some bad women.
So he's right about some things, and he's also insane.Here's the thing, if we're talking about this standard, there's no room for racism or bigotry.And bigotry extends to not just race. It can be a form of prejudice across sex, orientation, religion.
Well, then those who follow the tenets of the Islamic religion are in trouble, namely the founder, Muhammad.But here's Mehdi Hassan in a sermon saying that, and he's quoting scripture, saying that non-Muslims are animals and ignorant.
Here you go. from the rest of those human beings who live their lives as animals, bending any rule to fulfill any desire.
Once we do that, we are lost.The Carthus, the disbelievers, the atheists who remain deaf and stubborn to the teachings of Islam, the rational message of the Quran.
All right, that's enough.We get the point.Can we play that first one again?Just real quick.The first one is the one that's most interesting.What does he say?He says, play it.
from the rest of the non-Muslims, from the rest of those human beings.
Oh, no, he meant to say, he says, bending any, sorry, he meant to say they live bending animals to fulfill their desires.He was reading Iranian penthouse letters.
Okay, so it's Pen Palace.
Yes, Pen Palace. Dear Penn Palace, meh.Save a camel, ride a Mujahideen.
Do you remember that Big and Rich song?
The goat's the only bear because I'm looking so pretty.
What are you talking about?I don't understand.I don't understand. All right, let's go to Whoopi's Meltdown.
I think we've bled that goat dry.By the way, I really do want that guy to come on the show.I'm not kidding, Ryan.Come on the show, please.Come and express your viewpoints here.No pagers will go off, I promise.
Well, they might go off.They might.They might go off.I got fun friends.They send me messages like 8008.It's a fun time.
But shouldn't we all want terrorist pagers to explode?Shouldn't that be kind of like, yeah, look, if you are a terrorist, I kind of do want your pager to explode.Isn't that a reasonable position?OK, fine.
So look, if your pager goes off, then you're a terrorist.Yep. I have no problem with it.I have a problem with Whoopi Goldberg.
She really I mean, she outdid herself this time as far as cackling. The problem is, everyone, now it's in my head that everything's sexist, everything's racist.Okay.
The lady who goes in and asks for, when she gets her cuffs custom-made, asks for the magician, Whoopi Goldberg, she claimed that Trump would ban, and she really is just, she's just swinging for the fences, that Donald Trump would ban interracial marriages.
You won't believe me, so believe the stupid.
We're tired of that.That's why people are saying, right, that you heard the women say, listen, what we heard at that rally should be enough to shake folks awake.Because he's talking about you.All of you.All of you.He's talking about you.It's us.
He's not going to be, he's not going to, you know, say, oh, you're with a white guy.I'm going to keep you from being deported.No, he's going to deport you and put the white guy with someone else.The man is out there.
No, hold on a second.I think what you meant to say is, what you're saying, that would be out there.But here's the thing, Whoopi.The only place that idea exists is with you.
Yeah, it seems like an episode of Hollywood Squares, where you go, uh, no, I'll take the square, she's lying.Yes, you know what, can I go to Bruce Valanche?
Me?He's gonna get rid of you, you think he's not, he's gonna say you're with a white, no, she's gonna get rid of you and then put the white man!
with not what i don't even think i don't they didn't even do that when they broke up interracial marriages they didn't assign you to a white person i mean sure it was wrong there was a fire hose you couldn't get a piece of pie at the diner where you wanted to be there was a lot of societal pressure but they didn't sit you down and force marry you to another white person you gotta go to the dmv take a number yes exactly
I mean, is anyone genuinely, genuinely, is anyone actually concerned, people who hate Donald Trump, that he's going to ban interracial marriage and assign you to a white person?Comment below.
LINE UP FOR YOUR WHITE MANS!WHITE BOYS!RIGHT OVER HERE!TONS OF WHITE BOYS!PLEASE FIND YOUR CORRESPONDING WHITE MAN!
And this is why they're so- look, you want to know why they're so out of touch?Why people are not listening?And by the way, even black males who watch Club Shea Shea, it's this kind of stuff.
People go, look, I don't like him, but I'm gonna be honest, I have 0% concern that he's going to reassign me a wife.That's so stupid.What about albinos?What happens?
with hispanics who look white yeah i don't know i oh oh you mean you mean people who are here illegally might be deported well here's the thing we're not there yet so let's start with the 20 whatever it is 20 something percent of illegal aliens who are in our federal prisons right hey can we all agree on this
There should not be 1%.There should not be 1% of our prisons housing, paying for, feeding, clothing illegal aliens who've committed violent crimes.So here's a question, right?We can all agree on that.Why can't we deport them immediately?
The conversation isn't about interracial marriage.It's not even about anchor babies.It's not even about people who've overstayed visas.We can't deport violent felons in our prison.Why?If anyone has a good answer, we will have you on the air.
Trick question, there isn't one, but here's the thing.You can't break up the conjugal visits.No, you cannot.So I do those sometimes.Oh.I don't even know the people.I just go there to put a smile on their faces.Oh, wow.
It's apparently okay, though, as far as being against interracial relationships.That is a problem.That's not Donald Trump's policy, but it is a problem if black people want to date whites.
If you want to save the black family, if you want to save the black family, you have to protect it.And in order to protect it, you have to be against interracial marriage.
Black men, you gotta stop it.You gotta stop dating the white women.You gotta stop marrying the white women.
Oops.But not white women. If you go back far enough, your family probably owns slaves.
That's... no.It's like the childhood conditioning of that all attractive men are what?
I'm gonna make sure they understand, you will not perpetuate the snow bunny crisis.
You really have to go out of your way to find a non-black to date, so it's just kind of like, you weird, like something wrong with you.
No, hold on a second.And by the way, this is someone whose mind can be changed.She obviously has a fundamental misunderstanding.You don't have to go out of your way.
You just have to face the vast majority of people in this country to find a white person.It's not like a needle in a haystack situation.It's most of them.You can find them at work.Yes.Or on the bus.Or serial killing.That's on us.
I mean, that's our bad.It's not a good thing.No.We're good at it.You got to give us that credit.But it's not a good thing.
I mean, I've never seen more... You know who else was against it, who believed that black men should be executed, who went with a white woman?Muhammad Ali.What?Till he changed.
When he changed and he supported Ronald Reagan and campaigned for Orrin Hatch, we did an entire documentary on it, then he said he realized he was wrong.
When he was with Malcolm X, when he was a part of the Nation of Islam, he believed that you should face execution for interracial marriage.He said, ain't nothing wrong with wanting to be with your own kind.
You stay with your kind, I'll stay with my kind.And people act like he's a civil rights hero.This is when people talk about the double standard.Black people can be racist too.No, no.
Black people as a whole are more racist when it comes to interracial dating. Particularly black women, I will say.I haven't seen the same come from black men.Because they're looking to do it a little bit more maybe.Well, look at the women there.
In that one, I'm not saying it's indicative of all black women, but I'm saying if I were a black guy, I'm going to take my chances with the nice white picket fence.
The proportion of interracial dating does, men typically, I think, will do it more in that case, from black men going to other races.No, I'm agreeing with you.And I can take a guess as to why.Well, I wasn't going down the why trail.
I mean, what do you think it works like?You better not be with a white bitch!
You're not the boss of me.Reason number 500, I'm not with you!Could you please get your seven inch nails out of my eye? How do you even type or live with those things?
I don't know.I mean, it's a great love story when they meet on Spirit.So during this commercial break... He was fighting, I was fighting.It seemed distasteful.But you know advertisers are going to advertise capitalism.
They aired this commercial between the Whoopi segment.
Losing a loved one to deportation can be hard.So hard.The hardest part is finding someone to replace them with.
You feel like you're falling from a tall building, a beautiful building, Trump Tower, and you're falling, and you need some cushions to break your fall. Look no further than Whoopi's Cushions.That's right.
We'll distract your heartache with a headache and marry you to Whoopi because she's very lonely and, quite frankly, gross.So gross.But she asked me to do this and I said, of course, Whoopi, anything for Magician Predator.
Just kidding, nobody would ever agree to marry you.Actually, three guys did marry you.They all said you were a disgusting pig with a gross vagina.A dry, plump, major, they say.A lot of people say that.I would never say that about your vagina.
Available to citizens only.
Will the Comic Sans soften the blow?
It doesn't.It's ridiculous because it deserves ridiculous.That statement deserves ridiculous.Like the idea, first of all, did it's any interracial marriage?Okay, God.Oh, what?Maybe we misheard her.She meant, oh, immigrants, immigrant.
Well, doesn't a married immigrant have like protection?It's all ridiculous.
You know, it's the one where they, it's kind of surprising to me that the left now, all of a sudden they're pro free trade, you know, and they're anti tariff and they believe in a global economy and like, What happened to you?
You were capitalist, competition, right?You shouldn't put a... So they want international trade.For some reason though, American women want to lock out the entire rest of the world as dating prospects for American men.
Namely because American men are looking elsewhere to a higher degree than ever before, case in point, because of people like Whoopi and the entire cavalcade of witches that is The View.That's exactly why.
but also in what happened a competition what's wrong with the what's the problem with with with that now now they're trying to fear-monger and say oh you'll you'll you'll you'll have your woman deported but they're also against bro passport bros right everything everything is about them and speaking of so many things everything is about them kamala harris was uh... on set with uh...
Do I have to say Club Shea Shea?Do I have to say Club Shea Shea?You've already said it a lot.
I think it's actually kind of cool now.Club Shea Shea.Not.
Because I want this show to sound really dumb.Shannon Sharp sat down with Kamala Harris and she was trying to gain some blackmail votes.Of course, if you look at the comment section, it did not go well.
But she predictably lied about Donald Trump and only did an hour.
Should he have the ability to sit behind the seal of the President of the United States when he says he wants to terminate the Constitution of the United States?You know what that would mean?
In the Constitution of the United States is your Fourth Amendment right against unreasonable search and seizure. your fifth amendment right, your sixth amendment right to an attorney.
Here we go.Well a lot of rights are going to be gone, the first amendment.
But the first amendment, the second amendment, look I'm in favor of the second amendment, I don't believe we should be taking anybody's guns away.
Okay, we'll get to a rapid fire fact check, but of course you know that's not true, she literally said she was going to take people's guns away.Let me ask you this, Shay Shay says the first amendment right, a lot of people are going to go away.
Let me, genuine question, please comment below, what do you think the likelihood is of when Donald Trump becomes president, he silences or de-platforms Shea Shea, Sharpe, Shannon Sharpe.
What do you think the likelihood is of Donald Trump becoming president and silencing and de-platforming Shannon Sharpe?What do you think the likelihood is of a Harris administration, right, punitively silencing or punishing Joe Rogan?
Oh wait, that's right, they did it.They created an entire department to do it. and they have the gall to sit there and talk about the First Amendment.And by the way, trick question, no one is concerned about Donald Trump doing that.
No, no, of course not.By the way, I didn't notice this until just now.He said, you know, the First Amendment, a lot of rights will be gone, Second Amendment.She goes, I'm not going to take away the second.She skipped right over the first.
She skipped right over the things she knows she has already started doing that she cannot come out and say, I won't make adjustments to this and went straight to the lie on the second.I'm like, can we can we stay with the first, please?Right.
Can I get an answer on the first?It's kind of an important one.It's just so First order of business, silencing the Shea!
The left literally complains about Twitter being free speech.
Yes, exactly.He would go on Shannon's show just to have fun and roast him if he thought it was worth it.He wouldn't silence him.Right.
And you know, the Department of Misinformation, you had Nina Jankowicz, remember that?And then Jen Psaki saying, of course, Spotify needs to be more responsibly removed.
Was it 80-something episodes of the Joe Rogan experience on Spotify, including episodes with friends of this show, both Nick DiPaolo and Brian Callen?Yeah. So we already have the example.
Here's the thing, when they keep saying it's going to be World War III, it's going to be a dictatorship, it doesn't work.Why?Because we've lived it.You've been saying it for eight years.Even, look guys, we're going to go through this at election.
I'm telling you, I really do feel I'm praying for a wave coming, but I am seeing an enthusiasm that I have not seen in even the last two elections from people who weren't even involved.
I think that the fuse was lit with COVID, and a lot of people were awakened, but they weren't able to wake up that quickly in time for the election.
If you were to accept the premise, okay, the lies of the economy is better under Biden, unemployment is better Inflation is better, right?Our foreign policy is better.Just accept all of their talking points.Let's assume that, okay?
Let's assume that it's all true.You still aren't going to get Americans to believe that Donald Trump is Hitler because even looking back, if they accepted all those premises, they would go, yeah, no, it really was, it wasn't.
He wasn't rounding people up and arresting them.I distinctly remember the opposite happening in cities being burned down, spurred on by Democrats, Kamala Harris, word for word.You're not going to convince people because they've lived it.
And so you shoot yourselves in the foot.So by all means, please keep doing it.And we've lived yours.And we've seen the silencing.And it's not just you doing it.We've seen Mark Zuckerberg apologize for capitulating.
We've seen the Twitter files from Elon Musk.He felt so compelled to do it because of the bias that he saw and the media malpractice.And now you vilify him and sue him with your weaponizing of the justice system.
Let's look at this really quickly, by the way.Here's why the left has a greater vested interest in silencing voices of dissent.Once upon a time, ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN. They had control over everything.
You can add MSNBC, CNBC, Fox News, slightly more conservative.They had a stranglehold on it.Now, it's the opposite.
When it's a playing field of ideas, and you're not dealing with an algorithm, you're not dealing with one of the five multimedia conglomerates who dump their advertising into YouTube and Google so they can silence voices of dissent.
When it was an open platform, guess what? Right-leaning people win.Freedom-oriented people win.Let's compare.Trump on Rogan, 37 million views.And by the way, that's while it was throttled.If you search Joe Rogan, Donald Trump, it doesn't come up.
They uploaded it to X this morning because it was so bad.1.8 million likes to 40,000 dislikes.Kamala Harris, 880,000 views, likes 38,000 to dislikes 110,000.Of course, of course she would want to silence voices of dissent because it's embarrassing.
When the people speak, you are embarrassed and rightfully so.She even, they have to control, they used to control everything.
They used to control every single media, they used to control every, whether you got the Hunter Biden laptop story, that's just what you saw. People didn't even realize it with Walter Cronkite, Brian Williams.
You thought that Larry King was my God, an actual journalist.Kamala Harris tried to control it with Rogan.She tried to say, I'll do your show, but only if you come out to me. and will only do one hour.
Look, you've had all this time to do Joe Rogan, you know what his show is.I did his show and it was five hours.
I've never had to pee, I had to pee so badly when I went to the bathroom afterwards I couldn't start peeing because I think it pinched my valve.
Did she try to censor a Rogan interview before she even got the opportunity to do it?
Yes!Also, Joe Rogan can't be high everywhere you are, Kamala Harris.That's not legal.
Yeah, he doesn't want to get thrown in jail by you.It's just an elaborate sting operation.
Yes, that's what it is.And so, of course, we know that they silenced voices.They tried to do it.She's tried to do it now, and they have a vested interest because independent voices do better than the voices that can be controlled.
And of course, Kamala kept lying about Donald Trump on everything from racism to Project 2025 and Mr. Shea Shea allowed it to go.
I don't believe we should be taking anybody's guns away.
He wants to terminate the Constitution of the United States.Denied rent to black families who took out that full page ad in the New York Times calling for the execution of those children.
And who birtherism accusations against the first black president, not to mention his.Please ask folks to Google Project 2025.Yeah. He would get rid of the $35 a month cap on insulin.We know how many of our seniors had it.
I get why you only want to do an hour, because it would take far longer just to fact check your bullshit.But look, let me show you.It can actually be done really quickly.It's time for a rapid fire fact check.
Okay, everything you just heard right there.Kamala Harris has a very long- What is that stinger?
We're just gonna gloss over- Yes!
I got a rapid fire!I got a rapid fire!Sorry, sorry, sorry.
Billy the Kid.Alright.Number one. Okay, Kamala has a very long record of being against the Second Amendment, and she actually did say that, yes, your guns would be taken away.We've shown you that video clip multiple times.
I'm not doing it right now because it's a record fact check.Number two, records show that the Trump Organization never discriminated on race, never forbid black people from renting.
Okay, number three, Donald Trump's ad never called for the death penalty of the Central Park Five.That is well known.It's not in dispute.
Number four, birtherism was originally picked up by Hillary supporters, and then, yes, Donald Trump echoed it, but it came from Hillary first.Number five, Donald Trump doesn't have any relationship to Prada 2025.
Repeatedly has condemned it, said that it's kind of wacky, that the people associated with it are wacky, and he has nothing to do with creating it.
And number six, Donald Trump is the originator of the $35 cap on insulin that you are trying to take credit for.This has been the rapid fire fact check.
And now.Blinded bullet. I'm a real boy!
Welcome to public schools.Isn't that one true?
I got no strings to hold me!Why the black trench coat?Mr. Marbles plays Doom!And now...
We're doing was gonna make you a school shooter back in the day.Yeah, I said tipper gore.
Yeah Cobble is doing interview sponsored by Call of Duty
It's black ops and by the way, he has nothing to be ashamed of with that It was just audio my point.I'm not gonna give him crap for that I'm gonna give him crap for that crappy interview.No give him crap for the cardio.
He was winded No, no, no, no, no, no if it's the right if it's the right lady, it's a stress test so let's get to
I just have them incline that treadmill, and I keep going so they have them How do I get out of this?
Let's just this is fun You don't but this is fun there were of course many many accents from Kamala Harris is a hack in the sense that she doesn't realize she has to sort of smooth it over she just she just goes right into a voice that isn't hers and Doesn't realize that everyone's going what?
What happened?What are you?What are you doing?That's not how you talk here?Oh?
You know, part of what we have to help people understand is don't think you're in Donald Trump's club.You're not.
Hello to all my divine nine brothers and sisters.And my soror.You better thank a union member for sick leave.You better thank a union member for paid leave.You better thank a union member for vacation time.
You may not be a union member, but you better thank unions for that five day work week.
Thank unions for sick leave.Thank unions for paid family leave.Thank unions for your vacation time.
Have you no empathy, man?No, for the suffering of other people.Have you no sense of purpose?It's good to see so many friends.I love you back.With us in government? We campaign with the plan, uppercase T, uppercase P, the plan.
And then the environment is such that we're expected to defend the plan.Weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning. The path may seem hard, the work may seem heavy, but joy cometh in the morning, and church mourning is on its way.
Look, she's obviously struggling with her campaign.Yeah.And we're watching her self-destruct before our eyes.Look, we've all had a meltdown.Everyone has.Everyone here has.I've had a meltdown.
Everyone here has had a meltdown at some point in time, I believe.I've had a meltdown. I didn't see you there.I was wondering about the smell.
I had a house, and I had a wife.I had the respect of my community.Suddenly, it's all taken away.My spending caught up with my mortgage rates.Couldn't afford basic supplies.I'm a stress eater, and I knew I hit rock bottom when
when I found myself blowing another homeless guy for half a box of sugar cubes.
You know, you could have gone with American financing that could have helped you out with the mortgage.Get out.Can I take this?Take what?The gun?No.No?What are you going to use it for?
Scrap?OK, that's fine.You can take it.Sad.
We took the stand, too?Well, I guess it's all metal.Look.AmericanFinancing.net slash Crowder.It's a great company, American Financing.There are no upfront fees.You can close in 10 days.You can save $800 a month on average.Call today.
And I needed that. 800-974-6500.And you can go to AmericanFinancing.net slash Crowder.You know more about the financial stuff than I do.
Yeah, so you have to say this weird number, NMLS-182334.Was it National Moran Logo?We have to say that?Yeah, NMLS-182334.Why do we have to say that?NMLS-182334.But what about it?Why are we saying that?Because it's a number.And the government says so.
Oh, we have to say that number?I already did.Several times.
Can you say it? 1-8-2-3-3-4.Go f*** yourself, government.Okay.
And he's gone.Can we talk about how bad he smelled?Yes.Oh my god.It was really bad.It was so bad.I gotta up security here.
Yes, we do.By the way, you saved significantly more than that.I said that earlier, but, like, legit.I walked through the process.Significantly more.Yeah, I know.
These guys are very good.I know.I really could have used him, Gerald.No, I'm saying!I got Mike Tyson'd.You didn't.Yet.You think?Gotta sell the tigers. I didn't know which tiger I was gonna cut I had several tigers.
I thought do I sell one whole tiger or do I sell two half tigers?He would ask a question like that But then I realized they die It's time for our poly market check-in Sorry, I know there's some news.
Yeah, it's fine.It's fine.It's fine.Yeah
All right, so one week until the election, and it's a third, am I saying that right?A 33% spread.
Now again, this is a lot of crypto people betting, but you can look at all the other betting markets out there too, and you can see it tracks pretty damn well.
Yeah, a lot of people are betting on this election, and we're about to get into a segment here with some new data, some new early voting numbers that would- Leave that up, here's the problem.
They're going to be saying Trump is Satan now, and this is signs of it.Oh, geez.We're screwed.Oh, geez.Somebody bet him up or down really quickly.Get him off that six.Well, you know what?
Bet him up or down.I'm hoping people are reasonable and understand that the Antichrist wouldn't want us to kill less babies. Yeah.You know what, that's true.He's a bad Antichrist.Yeah, yeah, yeah.
He would be very bad at his job as the Antichrist.He's also a bad dictator, so... Yeah, he's not a very good dictator.He's failed at a lot of things.Yeah, well, no, as a dictator... Yeah, he wants to let people keep their guns.
I know.It's like rule number one, don't let the people keep their guns, dude.I know, I know.He doesn't follow rule number one for a dictator or rule number one for Antichrist, kill babies.That's like number one rule for Antichrist.
It's gotta be top three.Top five, top five, top five.This has been the Polly Market Check-In.
That was Noodle's personal chat he's got going.Oh, very, very funny.So really, hold on.
So what I was almost, I almost went to on accident was JD Vance potentially will sit with Joe Rogan for an interview tomorrow on his podcast, expected to drop later this week, be taped at, surprise, his studio in Austin.Oh, wow.Where he can get high.
Also, where it's his studio, and it's his show, and he wants to record it at his... Has he ever done it remote lately?I don't know, maybe, but... He's never done remote as far as I know.
It's just ridiculous to demand something of a show that didn't even want you in the first place.Yeah.Like, he doesn't need it.
Right.And by the way, he tweeted out, or posted on X, he's been very kind about it, saying she didn't refuse, I'm not going to travel, I think the best way to do it is in the studio.I understand why she's doing that.
I understand her handlers want to control the environment. She sat down with Shea Shea.Where do you think he is?Yeah, but she sat down with him for one hour.
Yeah, it doesn't matter, but she went to him.Right.That's my point.She's gone to other places.Why aren't you willing to get on a plane, come to Texas?Well, the white man is the biggest danger to her.
Who among us can resist the gravitational pull that is the charm of Mr. Shea?
Of Western Wisconsin trying to rally votes? You don't think going on Joe Rogan would have a bigger impact?The only reason you don't cancel your entire day is that you know it would be a train wreck.
And don't you love how people are saying, oh, she scared Donald Trump.He's not doing press now.It's like, hold on a second.He did the North American Black Journalists Conference.
He did that months ago.He did two debates on unfriendly networks.And he did three hours on Joe Rogan at his studio.You did one hour, very likely edited with Shay.I don't believe it was live.
Did she go on Fox News for a town hall?No, he did go on CNN with Caitlin Collins for a town hall, though.Like, he has gone into the lion's den over and over and over.
She did an interview with Bret Baier, though, but she showed up 15 minutes late and only gave him 25 minutes.
Filibustered every answer.Yeah, and cried about it afterwards.
So that might be the reason that we're seeing what we are seeing here as far as the early voting, as far as some numbers, the polling averages.So look, this is going to be my last pitch to you before election night.
We have a documentary making of series for the next three days.Between now and then I'll be on Alex Jones, Dan Bongino. Pierce Morgan, I believe other shows to follow, so you can follow me on X. We have a lot of pressure testing to do here.
It is going to be, I mean, my guess is at least, even if it's an early night, 12 hours, I would imagine.So, none of this happens without you.The election live stream of the century is entirely supported by you.Mug Club, $89 annually.
You can go Mugless for $9 a month.We are going to have the election integrity map.
And I believe it's at electionintegritymap.com that we have for you where you can actually go and see the states, just like any other electoral map, but see the updates, see us call states, dispute states, as well as see the work of our investigative journalists on the ground, an army of thousands of volunteers if anything happens.
out of the ordinary if anything that is suspicious like I don't know a pipe bursting or I don't know Bristol boards over a voting precinct or I don't know not being able to process votes for hours at a time in distinctly red areas like you saw in Arizona if any of that happens we will have boots on the ground right there at that moment in time and you do not need to tune in to CNN or Fox News anymore to rely on them you don't have to pick between entertaining and having the data we have everything they have and more
and we're not going to call arizona with 0.00045 allegedly of the vote in we're not going to do that we are going to have cross streams the biggest streams out there guests some uh surprise guests by the way drinking game rules i mean it's going to be uh the place to be and it's been a multi-million dollar undertaking only happens and you know what if you haven't joined hey tune in election night
You can line us up with everyone else, including the networks that are spending many, many tens of millions of dollars just in the host salaries for that evening, and then pick the place you want to watch.
Tune in here, Rumble, or YouTube, the election livestream of the century, Rumble on Rumble.It's like nothing we've ever done.So, now let's get into where we are with this election.It is exactly one week. One week away.
And the polls are as tight as they can be, but don't believe me.Believe Max Holloway.
We'll make it make sense.Look, how many ways can you say close, tight, even?Essentially even.And that is where this is.It's really as simple as that.Look, the national number here, plus one Harris, that's effectively even.
That is, as you said, as tight as it's been. Thanks for breaking it down.
I don't necessarily even know where he's getting those numbers, so let me give you a snapshot here.The RCP national average right now has Trump up by about 0.2%.That's awesome.That means the national popular vote.
That is why if you are in New York, if you are in California, if you are in Florida, if you are in Texas, if you are in Oklahoma, if you're in a state where you say, well, my vote doesn't matter, guess what?
That popular vote does because the left loses that moral high ground of the mandate of the masses.We have an electoral college for a reason, but they always try and usurp that.
Yes.The only poll, by the way, that had Harris plus one in the last eight or nine polls on there was his network that he was on.That's where he got the number.Plus one.That was it.Every other poll has Trump up. Yes.Wait, which one?
Which one did you see?This poll is the only poll that had Harris up plus one and that's what he was quoting.It's like Harris is plus one.That's okay.Every other poll, pull the polymark or pull the, uh, the RCP average.Look at that.
Oh, what's that Harris went up there.I didn't see the TPP.Come on.It's a small screen.All right.No.Okay.That's still just came out.And by the way, I was trying to save you, Gerald.
Gerald's having an argument with himself.All right, guys, everyone, everyone focus.Damn it.The fight's out there.So Nate Silver's aggregate has Kamala up by 0.9%.That is not good.
The poll in general are extremely close, but the swing states and where we've seen early voting and where we here have some exclusive data to present to you is where things get interesting.Let's get to poll watching.I forgot about that.
Where do I sign up?I'm a stripper.So look at here's what I want you to see too is because numbers don't exist in a vacuum.Okay, before we get to the states, let's look at the RCP polling from the last three election cycles.Bring that up.
Okay, do you see this?Can you guys zoom in a little bit?No one can see that.What is this?Can someone give me the Trump?Trump is up in pretty much every single RCP average as far as swing states that have the swing states in there.
I can barely see it.Guys, send us another one so we can do it while we do this show.What do you want, a new rap?It's like the Legend of a Treasure Map.
What's this?It's state and national polling averages and how they've changed over time.What?Changed from last week, up top.
No, no, no, no.Give me 2016, 2020.
and now as far as the numbers with the rcp averages of swing states easy period guys what happened well it's the one thing we didn't review and run through because we were we were pouring through the data that we have to get to the state but that that that one's on us all right the point is donald trump was down in all those swing states with the rcp averages in 2016 and in 2020 both hillary clinton and joe biden and he's up in all of them so even if he's only up
by 0.2%, by 1.5%, depending on the state, everywhere from North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona.The margin is he's up by, right now, 0.2% to under 2%, well within the margin of error.
But he was outside of the margin of error in both of the last national elections, in all of these swing states, and he outperformed those polls. People are saying this election is not like other elections.That's true.But that does matter.
You do have to understand that at the worst, he performs right on track with his polls. He usually outperforms it by anywhere from two to four points.Okay, so let's look at this.
Over the last month, every single swing state has trended Republican, too.So not only did it switch, it's been consistently trending.
And the momentum is so heavily in Donald Trump's favor that Kamala's campaign is begging women to, this is a real thing, lie to their husbands and vote for her.
Your turn, honey.In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose.Wait, pause, pause, pause, pause.
Are we supposed to believe that if she walks in and says, how'd you vote?She says, Kamala Harris, he's going to beat the shit out of her?Is that the implication?How'd you vote, sweetie?You like the freezer in the basement?
Although that guy's that's supposed to be the crazy guy that has an American flag and an eagle on his head It's like that's yes pro.Yes.
Oh, you mean the kind of neighbor I do want.Yes, exactly No, I need a BLM hat like a veteran hat, you know, yes, it's the one place where the woman has the right to choose and Really?Let me ask you.
What kind of car did they drive to their voting location in?Were they driving a classic Corvette or a Camaro?Or were they driving a minivan or an SUV that was a reasonable compromise?What are you guys eating for dinner?
Are you eating something that might be bad for his cholesterol because he looks like he likes cheese?Or are you going to be eating a nice salad spread or a charcuterie?Really?Hey, I noticed you're wearing jewelry.
Like, it's the only place a woman gets to choose.The left actually believes this.
Yeah, you remember that old Burger King slogan, have it your way or your husband's way only?Exactly.
I think he picked her wardrobe.Yes.Hold the pickles, hold the lettuce.Swollen eyes don't upset us.When you have it your way.Let's watch the ad.
In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose.He's not looking.You can vote any way you want. And no one will ever know.
Hey, mind your business.Did you make the right choice?
Sure did, honey.Remember, what happens in the booth stays in the booth.Vote Harris Walls.Vote Common Good as responsible for the contents of this ad.
What happens in the booth stays in the booth.The title of Diddy's latest album, actually.Oh, what?
It's your boy, Diddy.He'd still be going to jail.He did it everywhere.
vote because the opponent has a vagina everything is divisive from the left yes everything is they want to divide husband from wife they want to divide male from female they want to divide hispanic from white white from black right poor from rich it's all identity politics they're hoping that that woman goes home with her and they have an argument that's what this that's what this ad is for it is designed to create an argument at the household screw you now
Domestic violence is on the rise.It's on the rise.
Yes, and I'm sure many of them take place in the car outside the voting booth.Can't believe you didn't vote like I told you.This is so stupid.It never happens.Okay. I don't know if you know, a good thing is women can vote in this country.
Not the same in a lot of Muslim countries there where they actually do beat the shit out of you.Wow, that's why.That's if you learn to drive stick.Now, Donald Trump, to be clear, has many paths to victory in this election.
We'll go through it on election night, but most likely is, you know, if he wins Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, he can win any Rust Belt state. Okay?Any Rust Belt state.That includes Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.
And I believe, depending on how you massage some of those numbers, if he wins Pennsylvania, it's enough.Now!
Another potential path right is if people say Nevada is inconsequential If he wins, Nevada, for example, Arizona, Nevada, and there's an upset state something like a Virginia or a Minnesota right New Hampshire wouldn't quite be enough but it could make the path much more difficult for Kamala because she would actually get have to get all of the Rust Belt states really comes down to this he needs one and
She needs all of the Rust Belt states to win.Assuming there isn't some other major upset, which very well could happen.
Okay, he has far more paths than she does, but if that blue wall is a thing, as the left has tried to discuss, in other words, if these are not swing states, but 2016 was an anomaly, well, that would be tough.
Doesn't mean it's impossible, but it would be tough.Let's look at where all of these states currently sit.Okay, so I'll give you what you have publicly available, and then some bellwethers that we want to look for.Okay, so Arizona.
The RCP average has Trump up 1.5 points.Now, in 2020, it was a tie, even though Biden was up four points in the final polling.Right, at this time in 2020.
Yes, at this time in 2020.Same thing at this time in 2016.They had, I believe Arizona had Trump up 4.1, if I'm not mistaken, right?
So in 2016, Clinton was up 1.5.The final ended up being Trump plus four.Right.So they were way off.Right.I'm sorry.
I'm getting confused.Okay.Let me make this really, really clear for you.All right.The RCP average right now, today, this moment in time, Trump is up 1.5.Okay. 2020 ended up being a statistical tie.
Biden won by 10 something thousand votes, but the final polling had him up four points.Okay, in 2016 the final polling had Hillary up 1.5 and Trump won by four points.
Now keep in mind he has performed, uh, outperformed polling from this time by about 2.6 percent average in this state of Arizona, meaning Donald Trump has consistently outperformed the polling and for the first time he's ahead
in the pre-election polling.Okay?Does that make sense?If Donald Trump wins Arizona, his chances of winning the election go up to 73%.All right.Now here's the trend that we're looking at.One third of Arizona voters here have already cast their votes.
In Arizona, this includes mail-in, which favors Democrats, and in-person early voting, which favors Republicans, not to the degree that mail-in voting has typically favored Democrats, but a little bit at Election Day, historically, has favored Republicans.
What people are seeing this year is they think that Republicans won't have a disadvantage.They'll probably have a slight advantage on Election Day voting.
and they're actually coming out a little bit more for in-person early voting, not mail-in voting.So right now, we have one third of Arizona votes that are in mail-in and early in-person voting, and Democrats are worried.
Right now, nearly one and a half million votes have been cast, and according to the numbers, 589,000 of them are Republican and 485,000 are Democratic.Still, percentage-wise, the Democratic turnout is a bit higher,
but the democrats in arizona start at a big disadvantage.
At a big disadvantage.Did that guy just have a stroke before he went to air?Dear god, I hope not.That's a hundred thousand vote lead right now for republicans, which is great.
Early voting, look, it doesn't mean all that much because we don't know everything at this point.In a lot of states, for example, we're not going through michigan because they don't have the same party affiliation.
Also, independent votes, just so you know, they can lean left or right depending on the state.So for example, in Arizona, independent votes tend to lean right historically.
Most other states, they've tended to lean left, but the pre-election polling that we've seen, the pre-voting polling that we've seen, shows that independents this time are leaning significantly more right than they have historically.
So we don't want to speculate on that.Let's go to Georgia.All right.So the RCP average with Georgia has Trump up by 2.3 points.Okay.In 2020, at this moment in time, Biden was up by 0.4. Final vote, he ended up winning by 0.3.
That was actually the closest one.It was the closest one where Donald Trump underperformed by 0.1%.That's the worst that we have seen in recent elections.Let's look at 2016.Trump was up by 2.5% and he actually ended up winning by 5.7%.
So, let's keep in mind that he's right on track with polling in Georgia.He's outperformed it if you take one year and average it out by like 1.6%, but let's just call it, he's performing about on par with the polls.
He's ahead by a significant number right now.Okay, within the margin of error.If he wins Georgia, his chance of winning the election goes to 76.2%.All right. Here's a trend that we want you to look for.And this comes from us here exclusively.
We have access to a lot of voting data that other people don't.And we'll be providing this to you live again on election night, Tuesday, 6 p.m.Eastern.Early voting.You're seeing that white voters are outvoting black voters by 36 percent.Wow.
That's up from a 32 percent gap in 2020. That's pretty significant.That's also exclusive data, I believe, for us.Yes, it is exclusive data that we are presenting.You can bring up that overlay really quickly.They just sent it.
Yeah, we're looking at this and we're going through some data right now, voter rolls, seeing what information is out there.So that's a 4% increase as far as that gap.
now it does matter it may matter less than people think yeah because obviously georgia has a lot of black voters and historically they have been democrat obviously when you're talking about barack obama but then even with joe biden um joe biden performed better with black americans than uh you're seeing ironically kamala perform with with black americans certainly black males so if you take you shave off some of that black vote to donald trump or they don't show up to vote because they don't like kamala harris which is
pretty much every single focus group that we've seen and every single poll that we've seen, then you change that gap with white voters outvoting black Georgians by now 36%.That's an increase of 4% in that gap.
When you're talking about a state that is razor thin, that's the trend to look for.
It's incredible.Four points.
Let's go to North Carolina.This is the one that I know I have been most worried about.I don't know why.It's something that has just rubbed me the wrong way for the last few years.I know a lot of people moving from New York to North Carolina.
I feel like the Democrats have made a very aggressive push. Still, if you think I'm crazy, all right, fine.I'm more concerned about North Carolina than Arizona, to be clear.The RCP average has Trump up by 0.8%.
One thing you notice, too, with North Carolina is those polls do not oscillate a whole lot.They're very, very, very consistent this election time, which makes me think they're probably relatively close.Let's look at 2020.
Biden, at this point, was up by 0.6%.The final vote was Donald Trump by 1.3%.Yeah, could outperform there. 2016, Clinton polling up by 3 points.Final vote, Trump won by 3.6 points.
Which means that in North Carolina, Trump has outperformed the polling by 4.2% on average.4.2% in the last elections.What I want you to do is take the outperformance of his polls, Donald Trump, cut them in half.
Cut them in half, you're still outside of the margin of error for a Trump win in most of these swing states.
Especially because he's leading in all of these polls.Right.So if he outperforms statistically, he's going to go even higher.But again, only if people show up and vote.
Yes.So if he wins North Carolina, his chances of winning the election, then boom, they go to 80%.
If we look at Michigan, we don't have any real early voting data right now in Michigan because they don't have the same kind of metrics as far as party affiliation.But let's look at the RCP average.Donald Trump right now is up 0.2%. Okay.
In 2020, Biden was up 8.2%.The final vote was Biden by 2.8%.That's so off.How can they be so wrong?Well, and in 2016, you remember, you were there in my den in Michigan.I had to eat my words.
I said, Donald Trump will not win Michigan because the unions here and the state legislature will not allow for it to happen.It's a very, very corrupt state.I was wrong.I've never been so happy to be wrong, but I said, he will absolutely not.
I thought he would win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, perhaps before Michigan. So 2016 Clinton was up by seven points in the polling.Final vote?That's a walk-off. Final vote in 2016, Trump won by 0.3%.
So in Michigan, keep in mind, Trump has outperformed his polling by 6.3% on average, if you're gonna compare apples to apples.If he wins Michigan, his chances of winning the election go up 92%.
Here is an interesting trend though, even though we don't have a lot of early voting data from Michigan, on Saturday, Donald Trump actually received the endorsement of Muslim leaders in Michigan.
And considering how close it is, this might be enough to tip it.
We as Muslims stand with President Trump because he promises peace.He promises peace, not war.We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine.
I believe personally that God has saved his life for a reason, which is to save the lives of others.
And they don't even care that his son-in-law is a Jew. So he's received endorsements as well from Muslim mayors, Dearborn Heights, Hamtramck.Isn't that the one where you said you could hear the call to prayer?
I believe at one point it was the only city in the United States where you could hear the call to prayer across the city.Minneapolis has now joined them.
This would have been unheard of, by the way, to think of Muslim Americans supporting the Republican Party.
I can't believe they're supporting a racist, misogynist, xenophobic, I mean, just name all the things.That's incredible.By the way, really quickly, just as a disclaimer, when we say exclusive, we're not saying that this data is only available to us.
The analysis is available only to us because we're breaking these numbers down and putting it into a form you can understand.
We will have this all of election night, because I know that it's really hard to parse through early voting data.For example, in Nevada, everyone's trying to get your click, so they use different numbers.
Some people use the numbers of the percentage point slide.Some people use the numbers of comparing it to the last election cycle.Some people use the numbers of the gap.And you're like, well, hold on a second.
Who's winning the early voting, and how does it compare to last time?I think that's what you most want, right?Please let me know, because that'll determine how we best equip you on election night.I believe the most important metrics is
Okay, the two most important metrics.Who's winning?And how does it compare to last time?That's what you need.That's what we're trying to give you.
How many votes did Russia bring in?
Yeah, they spent a few dollars on Facebook ads.There you go.Wisconsin, the land of drunks and cheese. So the RCP average, 49 of the 50 drunkest counties, it's not even close.It's a walk off.
And it's not an insult, they're proud of it.
They don't have a problem with it.They're very cool.They just walk in and they just ignore their doctors. You said that over 14 drinks there is a heavy drinker.Those are more guidelines.Yeah, don't worry.Nobody follows that.Just have an old man.
Don't worry about it.Yeah.I got a box of friends here in the fridge.How dare you.The RCP average right now has Donald Trump up by 0.3%, well within the margin of error.But what happened the last elections?Biden, 2020, at this point was up by 6.7%.
The final vote, Biden won by 0.6%. Okay, 2016, Clinton was up by 3% when he looked at the polling before the vote.The final vote, Trump won by 1%, which means that Donald Trump has outperformed in the last two election cycles an average of 5%.
And it matters because you're seeing it two election cycles with most of these states.Maybe one is six, seven points, and maybe one is three, four points, but it's still two election cycles.
And for the first time in some of these swing states, he's actually up. in the pre-vote polling.
This is good news.This is definitely good news.I just wonder how they get it so wrong in Michigan and Wisconsin. That's six and five point different.Those are giant swings from what the polling says.Huge swings.
I think they poll, you know, who they want to poll.They want, they want, they poll who they want the results from.
Yeah.Maybe Josh, I mean, you might have a point there.I mean, it's just these, it's the swing States, the States that matter the most.Wouldn't, wouldn't you want polling?
Like for example, if you want to Kamala Harris to win, wouldn't you want to actually skew it the other way to scare Democrats?
So I've noticed this, I've noticed this. And this is just my personal experience.I've noticed that conservatives, Republicans, Trump voters are more concerned about people becoming complacent.
So they're probably more likely to lie to a pollster and say, yeah, I'm voting for Kamala Harris because they want the neighbor to get off their ass.Whereas it seems like, in my experience, the Democrats are real front runners.
They're really momentum-based.They're really enthusiasm-based as far as, we're winning this thing.They think that's an advantage, whereas I think that a lot of the Trump voters like that role of underdog.
I've known a few people who've lied to pollsters.It's not a federal crime.These are private companies calling to poll them, just to be clear.But they're like, yeah, I told them I was voting. You know what I told the pollster?
I told him I was voting Harris.It was you, wasn't it?No, it wasn't.I know a guy.Don't tell my wife.That's right.Don't tell my wife.Because I'm not allowed to do what she doesn't tell me.That's right.Otherwise, I'm going to give her a fresh one.
So, Pennsylvania.This is it.Pennsylvania.The RCP average has Donald Trump up by 0.5%.In 2020, at this point in 2020, Biden was up by 4.3%. Final vote in 2020, Biden won by 1.2.Okay?Again, this is assuming that you believe all of this.
2016, the pre-vote polling had Clinton up by five points, but Trump won by 1.2 points, which means that Donald Trump in the last two election cycles has outperformed the polling in Pennsylvania by 4.6% on average.
If he wins Pennsylvania, his chances go up to 89%, assuming that we don't fill in the other swing states. And this brings us to some exclusive analysis of data that you have not seen anywhere else.
And we feel quite confident in these being significant bellwethers to watch for on election night.And as we head into it, let's get into the exclusive MoClub data. Well, that just, it felt like something went in my ear.It did, yeah.
It's the transformer thing.Yes, it did.The minority report spider.
It's like the Matrix, the thing that goes in his belly.Yes, that's it.
So these, I'm not saying that Donald Trump is going to win these states.What I'm saying is that some numbers here are actually really surprising metrics that can be applied.Okay, so let's look at Minnesota, right?
Minnesota is very interesting because the RCP average has come all up by 4.3%. Okay, 4.3%, that seems very significant.Now, the last time that Minnesota was this close, you know, Bush won the election, Electoral College, I believe it was 286 to 251.
He won the popular vote by 3 million.So we're not saying that Donald Trump is going to win Minnesota.
We're saying that Minnesota is a pretty strong indicator if it's that close, because it's a pretty good spread of demographics that are representative of the country.So that's the last time we saw anything this close.
I would love to win Minnesota, just to stick it to walls even more.
I'm not saying it's out of reach, it's unlikely.
It's unlikely, but look at the last two elections, look at the 16 election cycle specifically.Across all of the other three, the Rust Belts that we talked about, it was roughly a five point difference in what the polling was versus what happened.
Right.That's within that margin.It is within that margin.
But still, it being even this close, again, takes us back, you're talking Quite a few elections and Bush won the popular vote.New York.Now I am not amongst the people I would love for it to be.I don't believe that New York is a swing state.Okay.
But Kamala is up by 16.5 points in New York.Hey, that seems really bad.But this is something I want you to look for as a bellwether.And we've run through these numbers.The last time polling was this close in New York, it was 1988. And George H.W.
Bush won by, the electoral college vote was 426 to 111, and he won the popular vote by 7 million, which back then is absolutely a landslide.That's the last time it was this close.So you think 16.5%, oh my gosh, that's huge.My point is since H.W.
Bush, it hasn't been this close, that's the last, doesn't mean that he's going to win New York, means that it's a very good indicator as to what the sentiment is across the country.You guys understand?Virginia.Let's look at this.
This is one that a lot of people think is in play.It could be. You know, if I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on it.Josh already did.But it's absolutely possible.Kamala is up by two points in the latest poll.That's close, man.
It is very close, but let's look at the trend.This is the best Republican polling in Virginia since 2004.Since 2004.Meaning she's up. But this is the closest number we've seen.Last time a Republican won Virginia but lost the election was 1996.
So we want you to look at these.We want you to look at these numbers that you see in New York.Now, these numbers can change.Maybe when we see some of the voting data, maybe Kamala Harris wins by 29 points in New York, or maybe she doesn't.
My point is this.In New York, it shouldn't even be close.Historically, if it's even getting remotely close, if you're not talking 20 points or more, guess what?That means nationally you have a problem, certainly with the popular vote.
Talking about Minnesota, it being within really just a handful of points, anytime it's that close, it does not typically go well for Democrats.Same thing with Virginia.
So you can look at other states, and this is also why I say, hey, listen, when people say I'm in a state that doesn't matter, yes, it does.In this election, it absolutely does.And the more we look through the data, the more I think, you know what?
Brilliant move by Donald Trump to campaign in places like New York and California because he understands How important it is to put that argument to rest regarding the popular vote and the Electoral College for God's sake How long do we have to hear Al Gore bitch about winning the popular vote?
Oh, yeah, and Hillary Clinton as well And it gives the Democrats an excuse to tear the country apart and to demand that we tear apart our institutions like the Electoral College Well, well the minute we also keep other ones like public education and you know, whatever is that they that they want to keep so
If you have any other questions or tell us what you'd like to see most on election night, which numbers matter most to you?What we are doing on election night, again, one more time, we have the election integrity map, electionintegritymap.com.
You can go there and see everything that's going on as far as us analyzing calling the states as well as investigative journalism.We do have all of the data from Edison Research, the national election pool via Reuters.
Reuters as well as third-party analysts who can analyze this data better than a lot of people in the legacy networks found the ground reporters Right.We have real-time data analysis.We'll be providing you with cross streams.
We have major guests We will have drinking game rules and we will not stop this stream.Well, we can't do it at least not early on Lord we will not stop this stream the election live stream of the century the rumble on rumble until
You know who the next president of the United States is going to be, and we may have some exciting major announcements to make on election night.Wasn't planned.Seems like it could just be providential.This has been exclusive Mug Club data.
Moving on, yesterday, oh, this is a fun story too, Walls, I guess, broke out another terrible football analogy?It's idiotic.Okay, let's see, this was just sent from Mission Control, let's see if you can spot the mistake.
Eight days to go, this election's already started, people are voting across the country, and so you know what it means, this is where I've gotta do it, huddling up a little bit here.
