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And our new podcast, Risky Business, is a show about making better decisions.We're both journalists who moonlight as poker players, and that's the lens we're going to use to approach this entire show.
We're going to be discussing everything from high stakes poker to personal questions.
Like whether I should call a plumber or fix my shower myself.
And of course, we'll be talking about the election, too.
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.
You're about to enter the arena and join the battle to save America with your host, Sean Parnell.
Good evening, America.This show that you're watching tonight is called Battleground Live.This is the show where we kick ass and we take names and we lock horns with the radical left.We never quit, we never surrender.
From sea to shining sea and everybody in between, welcome patriots on this glorious Thursday.What are we like five days before election day?Five days before we save this extraordinary country.
Uh, folks, a couple of things right off the top, happy Halloween, you know, got to take some, just a couple of minutes to acknowledge what's on the calendar.
And I know that my wife commander, Melanie, she and I were talking about how, you know, we've got five kids, people that are OGs and have been listening to the show for a long time, know that, but our kids are getting older and we both lamented the fact that.
They don't really get dressed up.They don't get really dressed up like they used to for Halloween.And even in the moment when they were kids at the time, like they get back from school, it's fast and furious.You've got to get them all dressed up.
It was chaotic.It was hectic.And there were a few times back then. I found myself complaining about that or thought it was stressful or whatever, but now that we don't have it anymore, we miss it.
So that is what we are dealing with here in Fort Parnell today, but happy Halloween nonetheless.Also folks, President Trump is the most electrifying political figure of my lifetime.
Again, OGs of the battle crew, folks who've been listening to this show for the last year, you know I'm a ride or die Trump guy, I always have been. but there will never be another politician like this guy.
He took Biden's insane garbage comment that the media tried to cover up and gaslight us into believing it didn't actually happen and turned it into a news cycle that dominated just about the entire day yesterday and even part of today.
So we're gonna talk a little bit about that.But I've also got the great Seth Keschel in the arena tonight.He's on deck here very soon. I really like Seth.He's a former army captain.He's a military intelligence officer.
He's an Afghanistan veteran like myself.But what I admire the most about Seth, and we'll get to him here in just a second after I get a couple of ad reads in, is that
In the wake of the 2020 election, and you all know I had my name on the ballot, was running in Western Pennsylvania in the biggest swing district in the state.
And for many of you all who followed my race, which I know many of you did, there were so many statistical anomalies in 2020, including the fact that I overperformed President Trump in my district and my opponent underperformed Biden.
So even that statistic alone mathematically, how does Biden and my opponent win?But nevertheless, this is a postmortem of my election in 2020.
But I've told you all many times that I felt like I was alone in 2020 in presenting all of this, what were a mountain of evidence of fraud to the media and to people who would investigate such things, and most of it fell on deaf ears.
People like Seth Keschel were few and far between, stood up and were unafraid of the media pressure and the intense pressure to cave, calling people conspiracy theorists or election deniers or what have you.Seth didn't bend, buckle or break.
And you know, I love that.I love when people have the backbone to stand up for what they believe in.I mean, I had lawyers who represented me
on what were very strong foundational constitutional cases on election integrity bail because they were getting threats from people.Why had Antifa showing up at my house and spray painting my home and everything else?I never backed down.
So my point is, I learned a lot. through those very tumultuous times in my life of who the good people were, and Seth is one of them.So stick with us.He's on deck.I'm going to get to him just a second.
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And our podcast, Risky Business, is a show about making better decisions.Both Nate and I are journalists who moonlight as poker players.We've both won, and I have to say lost, hundreds of thousands of dollars playing poker.
And poker is a lens that we're going to use to approach this entire show, because poker isn't just about playing cards.It's actually about how to make good decisions.It's an entire framework for thinking about the world.
In addition to poker, we'll be talking about the wide world of gambling, sports betting, for example, plus the news, politics.It is an election year and personal decisions, too.
Like whether I should call a plumber or fix my shower myself.
Tune into Risky Business every Thursday.
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
So without further ado, let me introduce you all to Seth Keschel.Welcome, my friend, Army Captain, Afghanistan veteran, 2020 election denier.Welcome to the show, my friend.It's great to have you.
Well, it's good to be on with you, Sean.And let me fix your verbiage a little bit.I'm not an election denier.I'm a fraud affirmer.
There you go.See, Seth, this is, I like the cut of your jib, even though you're not a Navy guy.See, I went to your sub stack and I was reading up on you for, so first of all, Seth has a sub stack.You should go subscribe to it.
He's got 26,000 subscribers over there.But he has this like little paragraph about himself on there.And I was reading about him and I've known Seth for a couple of years now.
but it says intense exposure on several mainline right broadcast like appearances with Sean Spicer and Jesse Kelly, plus an interview on Dr. Steve Turley's 1.2 million followers and counting on YouTube channel has brought many new followers here to this journal.
In the event that you're not one of those new followers, one reason you may not have heard of me till now is because I don't come with much of a filter.
And when it comes to discussing the state of today's elections in this country, I'm the guy that gets invited to headline a Lincoln-Reagan dinner only for legacy GOP bigwigs to opt out with a date night with the misses.And I thought, you know what?
You're a pretty good fit for this show, Seth, because we like to kind of tell it like it is here.
Well, the humor is always something that keeps us going.As a military man, I think you understand that.Some people get so serious about every little thing.
Right now, we're melting down and freaking out about a gender gap in early voting, which happens to look like the damn gender gap of every early voting episode.We can get into that as we get in the weeds, but I will say about the Navy.
I was a captain in the Army in 2003. Junior company, great officer.Most military guys that get out as an officer that get out, you know, without retiring or captains.And I was in Washington state in 2022 across the Columbia River in Clark County.
And I did an elections event there.You may not know this, but Washington state makes Pennsylvania's elections look amazingly clean.
Washington state, my calculation was that Washington state probably had 49,000 fraudulent ballots per elector in the 2020 election. And right now they're finding 16 ballots per apartment in some of these places in Seattle.
But I went down there to diss on the elections in Washington State and Seattle Times sent somebody down to I-5 to cover the event.And first off, they described me as lanky, which I kind of took offense to that because I'm not lanky.I'm 245 pounds.
But, you know, they wrote that up and they called me a former military captain, which is correct, but not precise.And then the next paragraph said I was an ex-Navy officer. So I actually got promoted three pay grades to naval captain.
So we've got like, we've got all all branches here on the battle crew that watch this show.But yeah, man, so you are very well appreciated here.And we talk about the 2020 election often on the show.
And not because we are incapable of addressing what's coming.I mean, the elites and the establishment, GOP, and certainly the Democrats and their allies in the media, they like to pretend that we can't walk and chew gum at the same time.
They don't want us talking about the 2020 election because they want us to keep making the same mistakes moving forward.They don't want us to change and secure our elections.And if we talked about it, it's more likely that we do that.
So we talk about the 2020 election a lot on the show, because it's important to expose what they did then to shore up elections moving forward.Because if we don't have secure elections,
we don't really have a country that's representative of the people, which is what our founders always intended.And when my election happened in 2020, you and I, that's how you and I connected.
And I mean, Pennsylvania was a disaster, but the math, and I don't want to spend too much time on 2020 because I want to get into the battleground state numbers with you and you, they're just a data guy and you're awesome with all that stuff.
But the math simply did not add up in my district, because the number of mail-in ballots, as you know, is not speculative.
Any way that you cut it, even with the ballots remaining after election day, I was going to have about a 13,000 vote margin of victory any way you cut it, even with the mail-in ballots out there as they were.
And then four days after election day, a ballot dump of 4,000 votes, then one of 9,000 votes, curiously adds up to 13,000, and the rest is history. And so what did you see?Let me ask you this, Seth.
What did you see in 2020 that made you say to yourself, okay, you know, I'm a military guy, but I got to step up and get involved in this fight.
Well, it's, it's interesting because my initial story, the one that people were learning three years ago, when I became a name with elections, it it's, It's something you read in a movie.
And I was not somebody that wanted a big social media following.And I really don't know that I want one.I have one, you know, and I'm going to make the best use of it until I no longer do.
But the 2020 election, to me, it was a hobby until the firing range went hot. And in 2016, I wound up creating as a hobby, a winning electoral map for Trump that matched 50 out of 50 states.
And the reason I deciphered it was because—so at the end of an election cycle, the media does something called herding, H-E-R-D-I-N-G.Now, I know you're friends with Rich Beres.
And, you know, Rich and I communicate sometimes and I like a lot of his terminology.But, you know, I'm sure Rich and you understand hurting where, hey, we need to preserve some credibility.Let's get to these results.Yes.
We talked about this just last night.
Yeah.Yeah.So, of course, here in the in the close of this election, everybody's going to give North Carolina to Trump.You know, everybody's going to write Florida and Texas off, which they've been written off for a long time.
And now you see people hurting Pennsylvania to the right. which is a huge tell that where this election should be going.
But, you know, other people may not do polling, but like Frank Luntz, he hurts, you know, he's been hedging the whole last couple weeks.Well, Trump might win.Yeah, yeah.No, no kidding.
He does, he does, that's exactly right.Like just yesterday he was like, and he does like, Frank is like, he's like the perpetual doomer.You know, he's like, oh, you know, Biden said the garbage comment and oh my gosh, there's 3% left undecided.
Like he was like on CNN, does the Trump could win now?Like, because of the garbage comment, not as if Trump has been strong all along, just because, you know, just because of the garbage comment.
Well, so the media heard at Ohio in 2016 in September, two months out, right?So you don't usually heard that early, but they pretty much gave it to Trump.So somebody got the duty to dump a poll that Trump's going to win Ohio by five or more.
And of course, that's media speak for it's going to be eight or more.And I pegged Ohio right at about eight points.And then I learned about voter registration by party.And I wound up crafting my own map, deconstructing the known map,
of the states were going elections are extremely p to call the 2020 electio And I say that's a reall of it because I've resear four years.I've had, I'
I know you have had time out and questioned mysel insanity, go back and reh I've been able to find is inconsistencies where I ca that has a normal looking looking trend where it did not happen here.Like
I believe Trump carried three states in 2020 with the certified results that he wasn't supposed to.I think that he was supposed to have North Carolina, Florida, and Texas ripped out from under him.Yes, Texas.
Joe Biden had 600,000 more votes in Texas in a losing effort than Donald Trump won with in 2016.Wait, say that again?
For real?Joe Biden's vote total in Texas in 2020 was 600,000 higher than Trump's winning total from 2016. How is that even possible?
That's what I'm saying.So part of the 81 million votes is a lot of votes in losing columns all over the country.So, you know, I've been screaming that Biden looks like he's got a million fraudulent votes in Texas in 2020.
And everybody says, well, you're crazy.Trump won the state.Yeah.He won the state and his gain was the largest Republican gain in the history of the Republican party in any one election.And the only one by five and a half points.
And little by little people have been unpacking that in Tarrant County and in Harris County and there's 254 counties in Texas.Now we're looking like we're going to have a more normalized turnout.So I'm wondering if these 2024 stats are
a confirmation that Trump is surging or a double confirmation that I was right about 2020.
You're saying that these, that these, you know, million additional votes in Texas, for example, aren't, they're not showing up.They're not there.Seth, so let me ask you a question.
Is that just because Republicans have gotten better at identifying it or is the deep state just like, screw it.Kamala's worse.I mean, what, what, what's your take on why those, those votes aren't there this time around.
Or at least it seems that way as of right now, right?
Texas has dumped more than a million registered voters from the roll since 2020, very quietly and over a long period of time.Texas doesn't register by party, but it does seem that voter roll purges only hurt one party in particular.
And that's very evident in your state in Philadelphia County.
But what I was going to say about Miami-Dade County is that Miami-Dade County is the only county in America with more than a million votes certified in 2020, where Biden lost votes from Hillary.
Every other county of that size, he gained massive amounts of votes.So something did not happen in Miami.So I can spot this stuff in the states where this seems to be low.It seems to be let off the gas here.
And I think the best explanation is that there were organized ballot-harvesting efforts in conjunction with massive expanded early and mail-in voting to max out the Democrat vote share everywhere possible.
And of course, it has to thrive on existing voter registrations.
Michigan is the worst of the blue-collar big three, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.Pennsylvania is in the middle, and Wisconsin is the most winnable for Trump because it has the cleanest voter rolls.
Wow, I did not know that.Just so people are tracking, Seth, I've told people this before, that in Pennsylvania, for example, if there's an electronic voter registration database, third party groups that have
Political allegiances contain access to those databases.And if the voter rolls aren't clean, people die, people move away.
The Democrats, all they need, especially at the height of COVID when it was simple and there was no deadline, no postmark requirement, no signature verification.
Hell, every first time voter in the state of Pennsylvania that was voting via absentee or via mail-in, they didn't submit a photocopy of their ID, which is required by law.I mean, there were so many things in Pennsylvania that happened.
that just that just were indicative of fraudulent votes.But like tell people how that works.They can.
All you need is, you know, two people, a printer, a ballot and a secrecy envelope, and you can vote for people, which is why so many people showed up on Election Day and being told they were told that they already voted, you know?
Well, so number one ballot harvesting in Pennsylvania.I believe it falls more in a gray area than a straight up illegality.But in a number of states, ballot harvesting is 100% illegal.Georgia.Great example.It's not legal, but And now 2,000 mules.
I don't swear by 2,000 mules.There are some issues with 2,000 mules.
But it is fact that they've got video footage of people showing up at drop boxes with massive stacks of ballots and handing it into the drop box and turning around like a quarterback about to make a handoff and dropping gloves off in a garbage can.
Like, they've been there multiple times.So, some of these canvassers we've gotten in states, like, so Tony Shoup and Audit the Vote PA, she's fantastic, right?You got people all over Wisconsin.
Some of the Wisconsin election integrity groups, they did canvassing, and they went to Madison, Wisconsin, Dane County, which is one of their heartbeats, if the Democrats have a hope in Wisconsin.
and they're finding apart 21 23 26 voter registrat I mean, we're talking abo I mean, I don't think any units that are that big i we've got 2030 people reg because what happens is t they never clean out.The remove themselves from a v
The only way we're gonna get around the voter roll corruption problem is to go North Dakota.North Dakota is the only state without voter registration.
And by my measurements of the 2020 election, easily had the cleanest election of all 50 states with fewer new votes cast in 2020 than in 2016.
Meanwhile, the rest of the country had this massive turnout boom, which was artificial because of the corruption of voter registration.
In 2020, that's what you think that the Democrats did.You think that it was all voter registration.I mean, I agree with you, but is that what you think?
It's a multi-pronged problem.You've heard a lot of the people with the theories about voting systems, electronic voting systems and software.
So I don't necessarily... Well, the news just came out with Jocelyn Benson in Michigan just yesterday.We talked about the show with Dominion.That issue happened in 2020 as well, but it's just coming out today as if it's a new thing.
And they're setting the stage for when Trump wins the election to delegitimize his victory, in my opinion.But how is the fraud happening?Number one, the foundation of it's in the rules.
There's manual blocking and tackling for cheating, which is the mail-in scheme and the ballot harvesting. So I think that relies on known corrupt counties where you know for a fact that these folks are Soros funded.
These are absolutely corrupt human beings like the Milwaukee elections officials that have email traffic about their election stuff.I think that they're outsourcing shopping the list of
available voter registrations that aren't going to be shown up and claimed by a real human being, where you've got 10,000 of these names that are not real people, but we can generate or request a ballot for these 10,000 people.
So what happens if you request Seth Keschel's ballot?I'm going to show up as a 4-4 voter wanting to vote, and you're going to have me already voted, and I'm going to raise holy hell about that. So you don't want to get caught.
But when you have 10,000 people out of a million registrations that can't vote but they're still on the rolls and they're coded and you can find them, then someone can shop those registrations out.
And what's happening, and this is why I know this, is because I read between the lines.I don't trust much that the agencies do.But the FBI has busted a few voter fraud rings.
They will not touch a presidential, a gubernatorial, a congressional, or a Senate race. Okay, but they go after some of these small fries.Why?Why?
I think to show that there's a modicum of diligence, and hey, we checked it out, we found fraud here, but no, there was no fraud in the presidential race.
What they've been busting is Democrats cheating against other Democrats in Democrat primaries, and there's two states that are- I have seen this too, yes.Connecticut and New Jersey.So in Patterson, New Jersey,
The FBI investigated some of this stuff and I sourced it one of my Substack articles because the investigation was interesting.Maybe they found a field agent who actually cared.And what they found was there's one dude.
So basically, he's a political consultant.And you obviously, if you were to run for office again, you would have 10 people in your inbox wanting to get you to get your campaign to buy their services, right?
And you know them by name, you're going to have the regulars and then maybe a few upstarts that want your business.
So what happens is one of these guys, who's somebody that can do all things for the campaign, he can go get the names that are on these lists and then go collect a ballot for them and swear on a written form that he's getting the ballot for them and taking it to them.
And then he buys the ballot from that person. And then he gets 100 of those and cast it as he wants.And in some of these races where there's not big turnout, you can swing a race on 150 or 200 fake ballots.
Now imagine you've got 20 people that are doing that, then you can get 2000 fake ballots in a county.And a lot of my numbers in Pennsylvania, so like Allegheny County likely has the most fake ballots of any county in Pennsylvania.
So Seth, you and I haven't discussed this prior to the show, but it's interesting that you say that because when I talk to people, people talk about Philly and yeah, Philly's bad.
You talk to people in Philly, I'm like, you ask someone straight up on the street, is there voter fraud in Philly?They're like, man, it's Philadelphia.Like, of course there is.But Pittsburgh, Allegheny County was worse in 2020.
Big time.My estimate for Allegheny County was likely 48,000 minimum fraudulent ballots in Allegheny County.And most of that was not in the core of deep urban Pittsburgh.It was out in the more conservative.
Yeah, that was in my district.Like I had 85% of Allegheny County outside the city.
So you were a desired target.Donald Trump was the number one target in the state.
I, yes, at PA 17 and, but this was before they, they gerrymandered the district into the new PA 17, but PA 17 back then Seth had 85% of Allegheny County outside of the city of Pittsburgh, all of Beaver County and a small portion of Butler County.
And that was the, I was ground zero for all of that.This was the County that, uh, where the Democrats sent out 30,000 ballots a month before election day, and President Trump was calling it out to wrong addresses.
The Democrats are saying, count every ballot, even the ballots that were cast outside the district.I mean, it was absolutely insane.And I witnessed this stuff with my own two eyes.
And that's why I say to people, Seth, that I'll never be gaslit into believing anything else, that they 100% stole the 2020 election, and no one will convince me otherwise, because I saw it, I was there. Right.
So Butler County, I'm sure most of your listeners probably know Butler County as well.President Trump survived the assassination attempt.
So Butler is- I was there as well, Seth.I was with President Trump 20 minutes before that happened.
I saw that.Isn't that ridiculous?You played the role of a hero.I remember that.That's what you're supposed to be doing.But Butler County is just due north of Allegheny and Pittsburgh.And so I mapped every precinct.
in Pennsylvania of all 67 counties for an estimate of likely fraudulent activity in the 2020 race, because I think it matters still.But this was my map of Butler County.All right.So just so you know, Pittsburgh is right below where this is.
And it looks to me like harvesters made their way into Butler County and got this corner, the southwest corner, which is like the cranberry area.That's where I'm at.I live just north of there.And the further you go up into the hinterlands,
than the cleaner the trends get, meaning that vote totals align with past trends and voter registration trends.People did not get out there as far.
Seth, that it's so crazy, but that red portion back then, this is insane.You and I did not coordinate any of this at all, but that red portion on the map that you just showed was the small bit of Butler from PA 17.
That was just the Butler County that was in my district.This is probably your portion of Beaver County, right?Closest to Pittsburgh.Yes, that's all of it.Yes, I have all of.I've got all of Beaver County.
Right.So Beaver County, that's where, that's where Tony actually lives.
But, uh, this was back then, by the way, this was like, when this was when, like, cause they, they, they gerrymandered the district and made it more favorable for Democrats.This was back in 2020, but yes, it was insane.What was going on back then.
So I'm wondering, I am telling you, I am, I am, this is why the media calls me one of the four horsemen of the election denial. That's a pretty, you should incorporate that into your branding.A founding father of the election denial movement.
Every precinct in Pennsylvania. And of course, this is a zoomable PDF file.
Seth, that's pretty amazing, man.See, folks, this is why we have military intelligence data guys on this show that can bring the receipts.
And what's crazy is that you just heard Seth go through the facts, and I was there on the ground, and I lived them, and that's exactly what happened.That's 100% what happened.
So my theory is that the corrupt counties are direct participants in this. where I think they're probably shopping voter lists.I think that they're extending hours as need be.
I think they're ignoring rules and laws, basically like the Ric Flairs of the election game.All right.
And then you've got the other counties, your Bradfords and your Armstrongs that are not corrupt counties, but because of the way the law is structured and the exploitation of it, you know, like, good example, I can drive down the street I live on and probably get away with ripping up campaign signs I don't like.
Now that's against the law, but if I can't be caught, then it's going to get ripped up.So it's very hard for sheriffs to patrol a county with, you know, how Pennsylvania is set up.It's old, right?And that's exactly right.Yeah.
You've got roads set up in every different direction coming off and it takes 20 minutes to get a few miles through the woods, depending what the weather is doing. So it's very hard to police all this stuff up.
And those kind of counties that are not corrupt counties are still open for hundreds or thousands of max ballots.
Now, what the 2020 election does allow me to anticipate is I do not believe in most of these Trump counties in Pennsylvania, the smaller ones.I don't believe that Harris can possibly exceed Joe Biden's vote count in those counties.
I think that whatever Biden's count was is the absolute lid for Democrat votes in this election, and certainly below.
So it helps me to forecast, because I don't think they have the ability, based on the current mail trends and the turnout rates and the registration data, to exceed Biden's vote counts in those counties, which is why I'm bullish on Trump.
So let's stay right there.Let me take a quick break.Let me get two more sponsorship reads.And then I want to shift to this cycle and the battlegrounds.And we can start with Pennsylvania, if that's cool, since we're already there.Got it.All right.
Stay right there, Seth.I'll be right back.
And our podcast, Risky Business, is a show about making better decisions.Both Nate and I are journalists who moonlight as poker players.We've both won, and I have to say lost, hundreds of thousands of dollars playing poker.
And poker is a lens that we're going to use to approach this entire show, because poker isn't just about playing cards.It's actually about how to make good decisions.It's an entire framework for thinking about the world.
In addition to poker, we'll be talking about the wide world of gambling, sports betting, for example, plus the news, politics, it is an election year, and personal decisions, too.
Like whether I should call a plumber or fix my shower myself.
Tune into Risky Business every Thursday.
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
back with Seth Keschel, former army captain, same rank as me, veteran of the Afghan war, and one of the four horsemen of, what was the title, Seth?Four horsemen.
One of the four horsemen of the election denial apocalypse or original gangster founding father of the election denial movement.
That if you, that should be front and center on all of your branding because it's just so freaking great.Um, all right, so let's, let's shift gears to 2024.We talked a little bit about the polling yesterday of these battleground States.
Um, and so we're on Pennsylvania.Let's talk about Pennsylvania.You, you said it's going to be hard for, for Kamala to exceed Biden's cap and what's a better way to say it to exceed Biden's vote count in a lot of these Pennsylvania counties.
Why do you think that is?All right.
So if you look at the data in 2008, oh, it's an important year for understanding the political situation in Pennsylvania.Pennsylvania is is was a reliable Democrat state, but without fantastic margins.
And James Carville's described the state as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between.So Pennsylvania is not a liberal state.People don't understand this.
People that don't travel and don't understand the political equation or the working class dynamics of America have too often associated Blue Coast with Pennsylvania, Minnesota.Now, they may have bubbles.
You might have Westchester, Pennsylvania, but Pittsburgh is not a liberal place.Neither are the surrounding areas.It may have its bubbles and its core, but it's not a liberal state.
So as the wokeness has taken over the Democrats, and not just the wokeness, but the party in 8-10 timeframe.
Obama high-pointed Pennsylvania with a 10.4% margin of victory, and that was the biggest margin for either party since 1964 Lyndon Johnson national landslide.
And ever since then, the state has been losing Democrat strength, and that started in the 2010 midterms.Around that time, the Democrats began openly being portrayed as anti-industry, anti-fossil fuels, anti-working class, and they lost white men.
That showed up in the vote totals in 2012.Obama lost more than 300,000 of his votes back in the 2012 election.Romney's problem was he couldn't pick them up off the ground like Donald Trump did.
Romney only shifted the Philly suburbs and got some of the interior somewhat more red, but his margin still was in half.It was a 5.4 margin for Obama in 2012.So the trend was already on.
And then when Trump came on board, Republican membership actually surged and Democrats continue to drop registrations.And that was signifying that this is going to close inside of five points.And Trump wound up flipping the state.
Trump gained 300,000 votes.Clinton continued to drop.And in 2020, It was 21 to 1 Republican Party registration age for new registrations.It was 242,000 net new Republican registrations, and the Dems only gained 11,000.
So all that signified that Trump should have expanded his margins in Pennsylvania.I've come up with numbers over six points.
Now, it's hard to calculate exactly where that should have ballparked, given the expanse and turnout, but Trump should have easily held Pennsylvania in 2020.
And when I look at these flyover counties in Pennsylvania, which is most of them, Trump trended 64 of 67 counties more Republican in the last four years.That's exactly right.That's exactly right.Even Chester County went to the right.
So when you look at it, let's just take Juniata County, or maybe we could take Jefferson County.Those counties have a Biden vote total that is higher than Hillary in 2016, and in a lot of cases higher than Obama in 2012, but not at the 2008 number.
So they weren't able to get back to the 08 number, but they did elevate from 12 and 16.
That is because many weeks and months of ballot harvesting and planning and mail-in ballot scams were put in place to maximize Biden's vote totals in the extremely Trumpy, almost Wyoming-like portions of Pennsylvania.
I do not believe that based on organic lack of appeal and based on electioneering, I don't think Harris can reach those vote totals in 2024.Trump is going to consume more of the vote.I don't think they'll be able to turn out as many ballots.
I mean, you see that play out in the data right now.I've been running this vote banking operation for mail-in ballots.We built this infrastructure here. and kind of fighting the way the Democrats do, except for without the cheating.
But they only have a 379,000 person mail-in ballot firewall, which back in 2020, it was like 1.1 million.
I am really only worried, as far as margin slide goes, I'm only worried about Montgomery and Delaware counties.Philadelphia County, Trump actually lost Philly County by less than he lost it by in 2016. Now, are they packing votes?
Yes, because what we don't know, one of our intel gaps is how many of these votes are fraudulent and have always been fraudulent for the last 30 years.I don't know the answer.
And so maybe they have a well where they go to get half a million ballots right off the bat.But they're down big time in Philly County.I think they're missing 93 mail-in requests based on this time last year, 93,000, I should say.
So they're missing big in the urban centers.They're also missing big time in core Allegheny County. So I think they're going to be missing a lot of the urban vote.A lot of the minority vote is going to move towards Trump.
Richard says that Trump's got 11% of black women and more than a quarter of black men.Then you have a not insignificant amount of the Hispanic working class out east.Berks County is a good example of that.
And I'd be shocked if he doesn't get a better share of the white working class vote than he got even in 2016.Because I doubt Kamala Harris has ever held a wrench or a hammer or worn a hard hat.And she wants to ban fracking.
That's exactly right.I mean, wow.
So PA smells like a poor man's Ohio to me.
You just took the words out of my mouth.I'm telling you, Seth, Pennsylvania's elections, I'm talking the margin of victory would be almost identical to Ohio if our elections were as secure as Ohio.
I think you've got a little bit of a left skew because I think your urban areas are a little bit more troublesome than Ohio's.
But I do see, like Pennsylvania, when I run the numbers, I ran a pessimistic forecast where the Dems gained on a lot of their margins in 2020 and Trump still won by a point, 75,000 votes.
But in my registration-based forecast, I get numbers like you're seeing come out of the big pollsters today.I've got about four and a half points.
Yeah, Echelon.Echelon Insights had Pennsylvania, Trump plus six. I mean, an atlas who people like to say on social media is the most accurate pollster at 2020 has Pennsylvania just today in their final poll of Trump plus one.
Yeah, well, it was actually one and a half before the rounding, but I think that some people are kind of hedging and maybe even accounting for the cheat machine.I don't, I personally don't think Josh Shapiro wants Harris to win Pennsylvania.
I say this all the time.I completely agree.
I mean, the guy doesn't want to have to wait eight years to be president.So most people are going to say, well, how can you, how can the governor do anything about that?It's easy.Well, he has his own personal. ballot collection network.Absolutely.
Absolutely.People that he knows that work closely with him.And then he could just order Philly and Pittsburgh to run a tight ship and guess what?It's an automatic Trump win. Same thing with Michigan.
Okay, so take us to Michigan.Tell us about the early vote numbers there.
All right, first and foremost, we don't have a lot of early voting data off of Michigan.They just expanded early vote to the whole state this week.I believe it's the first time they've done it.
From what I've read anecdotally, very similar vibes as most of the other places where it's just massive Trump counties or dwarfing urban county turnout, like Oakland County, Macomb County, Wayne County.Michigan,
I consider there to be eight battlegrounds this year.And seven of them are in my decisive states.And one of them is North Carolina.I don't call it a decisive because I've got it baked in for Trump.It's decisive if she were to get it for sure.
But Michigan is the most corrupt battleground state we have.And here's why.It's because 83.5% of the total population, including minors, not minors like you have in Pennsylvania, but minors under the age of 18,
And 83.5% of the population is registered to vote.77% of any state's population is over the age of 18 and therefore old enough to vote.So there's your math right there.It's got 6.5% more of the population registered than is even 18 years old.
And that's before we deduct people who are not eligible to vote who are of age.That means you've got- How is that possible, Seth?
Automatic voter registration, lack of voter roll maintenance, and the facilitation of this by an extremely corrupt trio of women that run that state. And so Michigan is the worst of all these battleground states.
Now, I do believe if Trump runs with the election, if he grabs up the quickest three states to the election for Trump are North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Bambi.
By the way, I don't think Whitmer wants Kamala either.She wants to be run for president as well.
I don't either.So Michigan sits on average in Trump's two elections.Michigan has averaged 53,000 votes left of Pennsylvania. So if Trump does grab PA, how do you know this stuff, man?Where do you get?
I'm one of the founding fathers of the elections and I'll move stuff that I do.But I've got all this stuff in graphics and I've just memorized it.Same way I used to pick up baseball cards and read the back of the stats.
And that's how I got good at baseball stats.So
You were an army intel guy, were you like a savage S2 for some battalion, like educating knucklejacks?
I was the S2 and assistant S2 of an aviation task force and then eventually in a striker brigade in Alaska. I had a steep learning curve.I've really had to learn how to get more direct.
That's why I told you before we did this, you need to lead the questions because I can roam with this.But Michigan sits 53,000 left of Pennsylvania on average in two Trump races.
So Trump at 200,000 plus in PA isn't going to jive with Michigan going the other way.So I don't know that the effort to steal Michigan will be very intense if Trump runs off with the East Coast, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.
But Michigan is absolutely filthy.Pennsylvania has about 68% of its population registered, and Wisconsin only 58.
Jeez, okay.So you think, so what's the, so what does Michigan look like for Trump?What do you think?
Well, if I've got Pennsylvania ballparking four, then Michigan looks like two and a half to three and a half points. Holy smokes, so you, really?Yeah, Michigan has been left of Pennsylvania in every election since 92.
Now, they do have a bigger, they have more white working class voters.There's also some very notable coalition shifting, as Rich would call it, going on.You got the Arab voters down there in the South.Yeah, right, right, right, right.
Well, they're only 2% to 3% of the vote, but the minority drift is very real.Latino vote's not much of a thing there in Michigan, but they've got a big black vote in the Southeast, and if it doesn't come out,
And then the other minorities change sides at a bigger rate.And then the white working class moves back to the right.There's not really a way that she can carry the state.And once again, I think that she's capped.
I don't think that she'll be able to match Biden's vote totals and a lot of the flyover portions of the state.
Seth, do you think that some of this and Rich and I have talked about this before, but
The Democrats just, I don't know that, look, they have unlimited money, they can buy volunteers if need be, but like, they haven't developed over the last couple cycles, the muscle memory to physically turn people out and the way that some of the trends are going in early vote, it means, because they're not getting as many early votes or bank mail-in votes that they did in 2020, they're gonna have to physically turn out those people.
Now that is possible, but I feel like it's a heavier lift for Democrats than it is for Republicans.
People are worried about the Election Day cannibalization of the Republican vote.I'm not.I think that we've created these boxes for ourselves because we suffered under so many terrible Republican figureheads.
Trump had a very standard Republican vote total in 2016.He got the votes in the right states to win the Electoral College.He actually ran weaker in Texas, Georgia, and Arizona, ran stronger in the Rust Belt.
And then we have 2020, Trump has an enormous vote gain.So here's another one for you 2020 buffs.
In 2020, Donald Trump gained 11 million votes from his previous election, which made him the first incumbent president to gain votes and not be reelected since 1888 when Grover Cleveland gained votes from 1884.
So of course, that was the safest and most secure election of all time.But Trump still got us 11 million new votes, which just doesn't work with what Biden came in at. But Trump is blowing up records at an amazing pace.
The Democrats are consuming more of their three out of four and four out of four voters than we are almost everywhere. The Republicans continue to expand margins of early voting in Arizona and Nevada.
Florida is almost R plus 12 right now in early vote.It was D plus one last time before election day.All right, so Florida is blowing up like crazy, which trends almost always with Pennsylvania and Michigan.
So I think that when you analyze the question of how does all this portend, the early voting portend for the Democrats, They're cratered in the urban areas, in the inner cities.
And it doesn't make sense to my logical mind that Joe Biden's going to have 81 million ballots in 2020.And it was done primarily by not voting on election day.It was voting by mail, voting early, ballot harvesting.
do whatever, and they didn't vote on election day.Somebody told me that Trump won election day voting in Hawaii 70-30, Hawaii.So election day is massively Republican.
And I just saw a poll today that says Trump should win election day in Pennsylvania by 19 points.And when we look at that, and we stretch it out, why would they wait in the very next election after getting 81 million ballots?
Why would they start suddenly become the in-person on election day party?
I completely agree with you.I mean, Seth, I tell people on the show, I'm not a doomer.I love being in the data.I don't see any warning signs in the data.In fact, we're in a stronger position now than we ever have been.
But having had an election stolen completely from me, I still worry that the Democrats are going to pull the rug out from underneath us somehow. but it's just, I don't see any flashing red lights.Do you?
Well, that's why, that's why I'm, I'm somewhat reserved in my writing.So, so when people really want my official statement, it's on my sub stack.In today's article, I talk about asterisks.Roger Maris had an asterisk when he hit 61 home runs.
Barry Bonds has one.And all of my predictions are They are asterisks when it's like, hey, this is my prediction if and only if we have a modestly fair election.Because there's some results that are so far off of reality in 2020, it's not even funny.
Now, here's what I will say. Trump had the votes in 2020.He did not have command of the narrative, which is why that result wound up standing up, even though we had valid complaints about election fraud.
One of the problems with the election challenges in courts is, in most states, they make you find specifically, you know, if Carrie Lake lost by 10,000 or 17,117 votes,
then we need 17,118 votes given to us, which, you know, are fraudulent or we won't rule on it.
So, you know, they threw all these marbles all across the kitchen floor, you know, and mom went chasing them up under the fridge and under the tables and everything else.And the kids ran off.Right.And that's what happened with the votes.But we are
We are at this point where they don't have the narrative this time.Trump has it.
They don't have the quantity of mail-in votes in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania out to replicate exactly what happened in 2020, which is, all right, we see what Trump has.Pause.
All right, and we're going to count all these mail-in votes that we had on the front end. So if the election were to take a turn like it did in 2020, it will not be the halfback dive up the middle until we get into the end zone.
It's going to have to be something off the back end or something that we've never seen before that has to do with software, which I don't want to go too far into this and demoralize people.
But it smells like narratives are being planted to blame another country for intruding in our election or to blame Trump or plant evidence against Trump that he cheated the election.
Therefore, if he goes in, then he must have done so illegitimately, and he lacks the mandate that he might get at the polls.
I mean, listen, listen, Jamie Raskin has already said this in an interview publicly, that even if Trump wins, they're going to do everything they can to prevent him from being inaugurated.
He said this in live interviews, and I've said on the show many times, I think the most dangerous time in American history, certainly during my life, is if Trump wins from November 6th to January 21st.
what happens during that time period, because it's not a stretch of the imagination to say, Seth, that the Democrats, they've already accused Trump of being an illegitimate president.
They've already impeached him on bogus charges or voted to impeach him on bogus charges in the House twice.They're trying to throw the guy in prison for the rest of his life based on bogus charges.
Is it really a stretch to say, oh, there's foreign election interference, Trump cheated?Of course, that's the next logical step.I mean,
Well, that was really the crux of Russiagate years ago, where, well, there's foreign interference and that's what they did.
And what they've done is they've spent all these years blasting veterans and not just veterans, but I mean, most of the people I've worked with elections are people that want to be left alone and raise their families.That's what they are.
Tony is one of these people.And they defame you, blast you for simply speaking out.Like the country itself was founded on the precept that we cannot trust the government. we don't trust government.
And the founders were like, hey, we got to have a government because men are not angels, but don't trust the government.
So somehow we wound up with an election system in which the government runs the test on which they are retained or not retained, which I think that if we were to fashion humanity as if the Starship Troopers novel were to be real, that somebody would probably call out how stupid it was that previous civilizations allowed the government to run the elections.
Yes, that's a that's a great point.
Actually, it really is doing like you want the Fox to guard the hen house, you literally set it up to where we're gonna go tell the Fox not to go mess with the hens when we're gone.Government, here's your votes.We want you gone.
Okay, well, let's process them.We got early voting.We don't have to report our results for 13 days.And we'll let you know if you fired us and put us out of work.
I, that's fascinating to me.I think that's a fascinating point.
Um, it doesn't make sense to me that anybody would not be an election denier.
Yeah.Yeah.I completely agree.The Democrats are every single cycle set every single time that they lose, they deny that they lost every single time. Seth, what do you think about Nevada right now?Nevada's kind of been elusive for Republicans.
We've lost it for the past couple of cycles, but it looks like the early vote numbers are extraordinary for us.
Well, I think that Harris's ship in Nevada has sailed.
I don't think the juice is going to be worth the squeeze for her to even pursue it anymore.In most of my scenarios, Nevada is not the state that wins Trump the presidency. Now, where could it potentially win Trump the presidency?
It's if Trump wins Pennsylvania, loses Georgia, and then wins Arizona and Nevada.That would win Trump the presidency.And
But other than that, to make Nevada part of the winning hand, you're going to have to get to the situation where Trump gets Georgia, can't carry Pennsylvania or Michigan, and has to win one of Arizona or Wisconsin, then pair up Nevada with New Hampshire, which is a real reach.
So Nevada, seven out of eight votes come from two counties.They override the other 15 county equivalents that are overwhelmingly Trump counties.
The problem with those 15 counties is they're pretty much maxed out, where we can't really wring that cloth a lot more.I think there may be 10,000 more margin stuck in those counties for Trump.
So you have to do the heavy lifting in Clark and Washoe, and that's exactly what he's done.So the Dems lost a ton of their voter registration advantages, down below 15,000 now heading into the election.
And Trump has run about 40,000 or 50,000 to the right of the registration advantage in every one of his races so far in Nevada.
the independent vote leans right, a lot of the working class D vote leans to the right, kind of like PA, and he's going to pull Latino vote way bigger than he did last time.I really don't think the numbers are there.The GOP's got a lead over 40,000.
Just for perspective, four years ago, the Dem lead was 40 plus thousand.So that's a swing of 80 some odd thousand votes in a state decided by 33,000 ballots.
So, uh, I don't think that it's going to be worth the effort given her, her obvious vulnerabilities in Georgia and Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Arizona.So I think that it's kind of going to rot on the vine for them.
And Trump is going to carry Nevada by default.Wow.
So what about, what about Arizona?
Well, here's some, here's a factoid for you.This is why I'm your Swiss army knife of election.All right. So do you do any of that sports betting?Of course, yeah.Because Richard likes Barnes a lot.
I used to do DraftKings and FanDuel a little bit because I love baseball, but for some reason, oddly enough, my luck never worked out for me to stay with it long enough. But there's a term in that kind of industry called the chalk.C-H-A-L-K.
The chalk pick.Now, what the chalk pick is, is I may not feel like playing Mike Trout in my lineup today.Because I've got a vibe that he's, you know, he's been hurt or something like that.But the stats say that this guy kills left-handed pitchers.
So you should play him because if you pick him enough times against lefties, he is going to deliver X amount of points.It's kind of like stock picks.
So the chalk pick on the history of Nevada in Arizona is that if Nevada is going Republican, then Arizona is going Republican because we've never had an election where Nevada voted for the Republican for president and Arizona voted for the Democrat.
It's never happened.And Arizona has been a state since 1912. So my gut is with 112 years of information informing my decision that if Nevada goes Republican, then Arizona will too.
Good Lord, man.You are one of the four horsemen.
You really are.I'm basically the guy at the end of the level where the election affirmers come back and I'm the end of level boss there. All right, so what about Georgia?All right, so where are we at?We've got Nevada and Arizona.
Yeah, we went Nevada, Arizona, now we're Georgia.
All right, so Georgia pairs up with Duval County and Florida. Duval County is Jacksonville Metro.Now, Georgia doesn't register voters by party.
When I started running my analysis on Georgia, I was thinking I was going to comp it with nearby North Carolina.
And I started running the numbers, and the states are kind of in two different directions, where I think they're both going to run right this year.But for the first time since 88, North Carolina voted to the right of Georgia in the last election.
And that was probably legitimate, even when we deduct all the fraudulent ballots.So Georgia is a little bit tough.It's filling up with a lot of the educated white class.So the white Republican vote isn't as strong as it was.
And the black vote is the dominant opposing political force.And there's another 15% or so others, including Latino vote.But Georgia is a state where you're going to have to do better with the black male vote, and that's Trump's bread and butter.
And Duval County, Florida does register by party with the rest of the state of Florida.And it's four points more Republican than it was in 2020, when Trump supposedly lost Duval.
Duval and Georgia have moved together in almost by the same exact amount since 2004.
Barris said this yesterday.
Yeah, they were big for Bush in 04, then they were for McCain but tighter in 08, then they were bigger for Romney in 12, they were for Trump but tighter in 16, and then they flipped against Trump in 2020.
So Duval's movement and Duval turnout right now, Florida turnout is off the charts. Duval turnout right now is R plus three and a half, even though it's a D plus two county.
So it's in overdrive for the Republican party, even with the shift already in play.Trump looks like he's going to carry Duval comfortably.
And that pairs up, if I've got Trump with Duval at two and a half points, which is conservative estimate, then Georgia's at Trump plus 5.6.So I do expect Trump to get Georgia fairly comfortably, probably not by suburbia Republican margins.
But the early vote totals also look promising, where most of the high, high, high turnout counties right now are not just Trump counties, but they're like the crimson 80% of Trump counties.
And most of the urban areas with a lot of the black vote are lagging the total state share of the 2020 vote.
Holy smokes.Okay.North Carolina.
North Carolina. I think that unofficially, Harris has probably abandoned North Carolina.The polls, I do understand.I don't know why this is.
I can tell you why it is in Wisconsin, but I think polling in North Carolina is difficult, probably because a lot of the more conservative regions have less responsive voters.But North Carolina is only D plus 1.4.
It was D plus nine and a half when Trump won it the first time.It was D plus 5.3 when Trump won it again, but with a very tight margin thanks to the mail-in election.
And this time we've got 97 out of a hundred counties are more Republican than they were in 2020. It looks to me like core Charlotte, core Raleigh are not getting the turnout that they need to get that massive black vote at the urban core.
And if they don't max out Charlotte and Raleigh, they cannot win North Carolina.My studies on North Carolina suggest that Harris's ceiling in the absolute best case would be about 29,000 votes above.
And I don't think they're going to hit the thresholds to do that.So North Carolina, I ran the registration analysis.It looks like Trump plus six.
God, I mean, you think this plays out on election day?
Well, if it's Trump plus six and even does half of that as Trump plus three, it definitely should be, it should be Trump plus four or more, I would say.
All right.So what about, I want to ask about Wisconsin, because we talked about Pennsylvania, we talked about Michigan, we kind of skipped over Wisconsin, but you said Wisconsin has the cleanest voter rolls.What do you think about Wisconsin?
I feel really good about Wisconsin.And the reason I do is because I studied Iowa.Iowa has moved from R plus one to R plus 10 in the last four years.And some of that is just a rearrangement of the deck chairs.
You know, like Pennsylvania is another example, whereas it's only D plus 3.1.But as that change in party registration accelerates, the impact of it flattens out a little bit, because people formally will change their party registration.
So Iowa may not give you a nine-point swing because of the party registration, but it's definitely showing you all 99 counties in Iowa are on a Republican trend, including the urban ones, and including the ones along the banks of the Mississippi that parallel Wisconsin and those southwestern working-class counties that Trump flipped in order to flip the state and should have held the state in 2020.
Most important thing to know about Wisconsin is there's really only two counties to really watch out for in the state.That's Dane County, home of Madison and the University of Wisconsin, extremely liberal white people there.
And then you have Milwaukee, which is your standard urban wreck that Trump can probably pick up major margin in with the Latino and black populations.
Milwaukee County's voter reduced from its size in it's 9% smaller than it w that's a lot fewer ballots And the turnout in the inner wards of Milwaukee is garbage right now.
So it looks to me like if Iowa is on a right trend, Wisconsin will mirror that like it almost always does.And the two have never been more than 9.8% apart since 1960 in any direction.
So Trump plus 10 in Iowa is going to bring you a Wisconsin result too.
OK, that's that's staggering to me.OK, I got a couple like just one last.Well, I've got a couple last questions for you.What about some of these states that are blue but look like they could be Trump?What about, say, New Jersey?
So there's four states that are in July that I pegged as leaners.And my definition of leaner is anything that's going to be likely won by either candidate, but less than 10 points.So I would call two Trump leaners, North Carolina and Texas.
Now, Texas looks like it's probably going to clear 10 at this rate. But I had both of those as Trump leaners, where I'm confident Trump will win, but less than 10 points.
And then I put four states, full state, so I split the one vote from Nebraska, and then I split statewide Maine for Harris.But four Harris leaners were New Mexico, Virginia, and Minnesota.
And I wound up with New Hampshire over in the battle in the decisive states because of its propensity to put Trump in there on a hail Mary.
But just recently, the Trump campaign announced rallies in most of those and an interest in all of them so it looks to me like I was correct.So I have. Virginia and Minnesota tentatively ballparked at three to five points dim.
That's just my ballpark setting.Now at three points, we're at a point where if election day turnout is a monster for Republicans and things are worse than we thought in the cities, then you could get an upset.
So we're in potential striking range on that. New Hampshire is gonna be probably one of the tightest states in this race.
And the voter- I mean, it was just moved to a toss-up column today by, I think- People thought it was crazy.
Six weeks ago, when I put that on Twitter, people thought I was nuts.But the voter registration stats, that state has moved from D plus one to R plus four and a half in the last four years.
And of course, that was because one party got a lot of registrations purged.But no, that state typically, it always votes to the left of the GOP registration advantage. And the GOP registration advantage is 39,000.
Trump has set 33,000 on average to the left of it.So if the registration figures hold up, Trump has a window to win by about 5,000 or 6,000 votes.But I do not see either candidate likely to win that state by more than 10,000 or 15,000 votes.
And that's based on six election cycles worth of data.
So you sound pretty bullish on Trump right now.Well, it's an asterisk.And by the way, you're pretty frustrated with doomers as well, it sounds like, reading your Twitter.
Well, you know, like, I don't, doomerism is not the same as realism, right?You learn that first.If you're a military officer and you have a senior officer come up to you and you don't tell him the bad news,
then the consequence is he may go on with a mission plan that gets people killed.
Absolutely.That's exactly right.
That was my direct duty.I was not a combat arms officer.I was the staff officer.I was an intelligence officer.So my function was to consider the enemy activity, consider what our mission plan is, what tools and
resources and weapons do we have available?What's daylight?What's the illumination look like?What's the wind look like?What's the soil type?So all that stuff bakes into the mission plan.
And my particular slice of that pie was the intelligence picture. And I have to tell that commander, they've got this weapon system, and we better not go right here.That would be a mistake.
And a company commander, it's a different side of the spectrum.But that company commander has to tell his battalion commander when he's got personnel issues that are going to affect the readiness of his unit to go into combat.
So, when you consider all this stuff, you know, like I would consider it not dooming to tell people to stop creating stories that don't work.So like the story in Michigan the other day, the corruption issue in Michigan, right?
Better stated, putting them on the spot to say, why is there this disconnect between this record and that?Because that's what it was.It's a transparency issue.Are you guys stuffing votes virtually?
Because when we pin ourselves to this many registrations, cast this many fraudulent votes, and we may not be correct.And y'all don't even agree on the numbers. That's a problem.All right.
Or when we when we say that the male and female vote split is troublesome.Okay, have we looked at the previous cycles because it looks exactly like it looked last time.
In fact, the working class states I just saw it right before we got on the call, Wisconsin and Ohio. In North Carolina, they have a much closer male-to-female split.So these working class men are getting out there right now.
But the male-female vote split is simple.Minority males are not voting in the numbers they usually vote for in the inner cities.The minority females are.
And because of fewer minority males voting, the male count goes down as a total, and they're basically being backfilled by white women, who even if they're 40% Republican, is a better output for the final vote than 20% Republican. Wow.
And if Trump didn't think that the mail vote was going to come out, he wouldn't be in New Mexico today, and he would be going to the Penn State game.
I mean, that's a great point.If you want to watch where a candidate is politically, you know, get a sense of where his priorities are, watch what he says and watch where they go and where they spend money.And you're right.Trump is doing rallies.
I think he's going to do something in New Hampshire.He's definitely doing one in New Mexico.I think the Trump campaign sees Minnesota even might be within striking distance.I don't know.
You sound a lot more, I don't know, I don't want to say confident.That's not, that's not the right word.I, and I'm not, I don't lack confidence.I'm just used to getting punched in the face by the Democrats.That's all.
And that's the hard part about it is you, you don't want to demoralize people.You also don't.So I don't, one of the reasons that none of the stuff that they throw at Trump works. is because they cried wolf.
Like we are the people that came before us, even people that wrote stories had a lot of wisdom, the boy that cried wolf.That's been the mainstream media now for, for the entirety of the Trump era.
And you know, the, the, where it used to be that people would care that a comedian told a joke that offended a group of people.This is just another, this is just another Thursday, you know, or here's another accuser of Donald Trump.
Well, this is the one of number 50.Right.And she waited 31 years in his third election run to come out and tell the story. So now's actually a really good time to put your dirt out there.You've been dragged through the mud. You know, right.
And, and it was political.And I, uh, I look at this stuff.Like I grew up in Jackson, Mississippi and in the South side of Jackson, I went to a small private school.
And back in those days, if your family got on the nightly news for some reason, like when my brother came back from Iraq or, you know, you were on, uh, you know, they showed a football highlight or your name was in the honor roll.
Like people were like, Hey, I saw you in the paper.Hey, I saw you on the news.Almost like you're famous.Like if you get a parade downtown, I got my own. New York Times hit piece written about me two weeks ago.
I'm talking, it wasn't like I was named in the hit piece.I'm talking about, it was literally my own hit piece.I mean, this is, this is, this is end of level boss stuff right there.
Wait, meet the election denier forecast.
I'm sitting here in a freaking shadow.
I mean, come on, you know, but so, so I was in the New York times and I was on the cover of the business section in print that Saturday and not, not one person in my life or in my military past or my professional career said, Hey Seth, I saw you on the cover of the business section of the New York times.
That's really crazy.The most widely spread publication in the world.Nobody reads it anymore.
That is a really interesting point.Good Lord.That is crazy.
Right.So that's why nothing sticks to Trump is because something happens.I mean, nobody even talks about the guy getting shot anymore.
I mean, we talk about that all the time, like getting shot.We had JD Vance getting picked as a VP.Then we had, there were several major news articles within days of him being shot where within three or four days it was like, Oh yeah, Trump got shot.
Holy smokes, man.I Seth, you got to tell us or kept you over time, but tell everybody that's watching and listening how they can support you and where they can find you.
Well, if people want to keep up with my work, I'm all over the place these days.I didn't think I'd be using X much, but that's, I guess, where the information space is right now.My X and True Social are at Real S Keschel.
I'm on Telegram, Captain Keschel's 2024 election headquarters, and my Substack is where I go into long form, deeper analysis, a different mode of reading what I've got stuck in between my ears, and that's skeschel.substack.com right there in my window.
So that's where you can support me.I offer a lot of free work on there.I also offer paid articles, and that has been good enough to keep me rolling.
Other than that, you can support everybody by making sure that you're getting everybody you know out to vote, getting eyes and ears out there, using your phone when you're in line at the polling centers, using your phone when you're collecting stuff, because now we have a lot more power behind us thanks to X. And really what happened in Bucks County the other day within 24 hours was amazing.
the power of being able to put these folks on blast.
Absolutely, man.Seth, we got to have you back, man.You're fantastic.I think the audience loves you, man.And I appreciate you being so generous with your time, my friend.
All right, Sean.Well, hey, great job out there.Um, thanks for what you do.Thanks for what you do for the representing the veterans community.You know, a lot of people took notice of your actions out there, uh, in Butler.
So, um, keep being a light out there.
Yeah.Thanks brother.We'll see you soon.Copy that.All right.That is the great Seth casual.I really listen.I try to bring you all some of the smartest people around that are truth tellers. actually courageous truth tellers.And man, that dude is smart.
People in the live chat saying, bring Seth back, bring Seth back.Yeah, we're going to do that if he'll, if he will have us.But yeah, man, he is fantastic.So, hey, go support his sub stack, go follow him on X, do whatever you can to help him out.
Um, because we've got to support our people.We got to make sure that the good people are supported so that they can remain independent.Um, make sure you smash that like button, that little green thumb beneath the video.
Um, all right, folks, thank you for tuning in.We are. Five days from election day and man I wish we had more time with Seth because I could talk to him about this stuff for a long time.
Make sure I look at gaming too long first time ever knowing of Seth well listen I'm really glad that to have you all look at how the audience has grown. Make sure you smash that like button.I always try to get to 400 likes before the show.
We're so close to it now.Smash the like button.Don't forget about official Sean Parnell.Support Seth Cashel in any way that you can.Hoolick, I see you in the live chat.I know you're a new addition to the battle crew, but we're lucky that we're here.
Cindy, Wiser, Animal, Dory, Dawn. Grandpa, Myron, Mama Bear, Hockey Love, Wildlife Watcher, Trinity.Listen, GI, Jenny, Hammerhead, Dory, you all have, you all are just the best audience in the world.
So many OG members of the battle crew have been with us since day one.Tomorrow, folks, do not forget to be here.I know Fridays can be typically, they're tough for people, right?
People like to get their weekend started a little bit early, but tomorrow, We have Wright Knight with Brian Dean Wright in the arena, also one of the smartest dudes around.Look, I'm a knuckle dragger, you know, that's who I am.It's who I am.
It's who I've always been. I try to surround myself with people that are a hell of a lot smarter than me.Brian Dean Wright is one of those people.Rich Barris is one of those people.Seth Cashel is one of those people.
But Wright Night is tomorrow, so be here live on Rumble at 5 p.m.Eastern Standard Time.In the meantime, folks, God bless you all.Keep the faith.Work your ass off.Sprint to the finish.We have a country to save.God bless you all, and God bless
this amazing country that we call home.Take care, good night, and I will see you tomorrow night, Battle Crew.Take care.
And our new podcast, Risky Business, is a show about making better decisions.We're both journalists who moonlight as poker players, and that's the lens we're going to use to approach this entire show.
We're going to be discussing everything from high stakes poker to personal questions.
Like whether I should call a plumber or fix my shower myself.
And of course, we'll be talking about the election, too.
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
