It certainly remains a holiday that's very popular for kids and families.And I think that will continue to be true.But it's a holiday that's also become very popular for adults.
Millennials embraced Halloween early on in their young adult lives and have kind of continued to care about it as a holiday moving forward.But also Gen Z has also really embraced this as a holiday.
So you're seeing it become sort of a holiday for everyone.
Welcome to Retail Gets Real, where we hear from retail's most fascinating leaders about the industry that impacts everyone, everywhere, every day.
I'm Bill Thorne from the National Retail Federation, and on today's episode, we're talking to my colleague, Catherine Cullen.She's NRS Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights.
Now we're going to talk to Catherine about how consumers are shopping this Halloween season, this year's popular costumes, and what's ahead for the upcoming holiday season.Catherine Cullen. my colleague, my friend, welcome to Retail Gets Real.
Hello, Bill, and happy Halloween.
And to you, happy Halloween.So are you ready for Halloween?I mean, it's literally like a month away almost.It's not even a month, but I mean, it's close.
It's close.You know, I feel behind this year because it feels like Halloween got kicked off earlier.I feel the pressure.My kids are asking me to decorate even before October started.It's weird.Yeah, it just feels like,
Fall hit and everyone was ready to turn the switch on summer and move into a new season.I know we'll talk about that.I'm not trying to preview the data.
No, but we have talked about it, which is driving down the road in mid-September and there's skeletons on front porches.I mean, it's unreal.
It is.And you know, I feel, I'm like, wow, I've got to up my porch decorations this year.I'm like, wow, it's starting to get to me.I mean, although it's fun.It feels like there's a lot more fun around it.You're not feeling the fun quite as much.
I can get that sense from you.That's all right.You know, maybe you're more on the trick side of Halloween.Don't go to Bill's house, guys.
I remember one of our former colleagues, she used to say that this was her favorite holiday of the year.I was like, it's not even a holiday.Why are we calling it a holiday?It's just an event.But evidently I was wrong.
It's a holiday and people really love to celebrate it.
And it's three quarters of Americans would disagree with you.
Let's go into early shopping.What are the people saying?Why are they doing this?
Well, just to back up, this really shocked me because we've seen Halloween creeping up the calendar, people getting into the spirit early, just like they are with other major events, back to school, winter holidays, people are starting their browsing earlier.
But when we surveyed consumers this year, about half said that they were starting to shop more than a month in advance. And if you compare this to five years ago, it was just 37%.And 10 years ago, it was less than a third.
So that has really moved and more than we've seen with other holidays or special events.And so we went a little deeper this year.We asked people, why are you shopping so early?What's behind this? And the results were really interesting.
You know, it was not like we see for some other holidays where it's all about the sales or deals.Certainly people are looking to find a great value, but it's because people want to celebrate fall.
And they really felt that Halloween this year, in particular, it seems maybe it was a colder September in many parts of the country, though I was just in Texas, certainly didn't feel cold there, I can tell you.
You know, for many parts of the country certainly felt chillier when September hit and people were ready to get into the spirit of a new season.And for a lot of people that was embodied by Halloween.
It's interesting because it wasn't exceptionally, I don't know, exceptionally hot, but I mean it was a very hot summer.
You can't say exceptionally hot.
I can see why people would be kind of excited about, you know, getting ready for cooler weather. We're getting cooler weather here in Washington, D.C.The problem is it's being accompanied by inches of rain, but that's okay.It's cooler.
We can pull out our quarter tips.So why might this year's total spending be less than last year's?
You know, this question irks me, to be honest.
Good, yay.I irked Katherine.
You know, when we look at total spending for Halloween, it's projected to be almost $12 billion this year, which is a, I think about a 32% increase in the last five years.
So we've seen about 32% growth in Halloween spending in five years, but we're down just slightly, I think about 5% from last year.
And, you know, I think just focusing on that year over year change really diminishes the picture, the overall picture of what's going on with Halloween.
And when you look at it as on a per person basis, it's people are spending on average about $5 less per person.And that's deciding, you know, hey, I'm gonna buy one less bag of candy, which I know I am because I bought way too much candy last year.
And it sat in my house for a little too long and was a little too tempting.So I think it's a little misleading to just focus on the, you know, little bit of a downtrend.I think it takes away from the fact that this holiday has grown in popularity.
People are shopping it earlier than they ever have before. And when we look at kind of older Gen Z, millennial age consumers, and we talked about why people are shopping early, they're actually saying it's not just because of fall.
For them, Halloween is their favorite holiday.And that's why they're shopping early.So I think you have all of this momentum and engagement around what used to be a relatively
small event before the pandemic, it represented about $8 billion in terms of spending.And now, you know, we're up at close to 12 billion.So that's why that question irks me.I'm happy to go into it in more detail if you insist.No, no, no.
But I think, you know, it sort of takes away from the notion that, you know, last year was record spending for most of our major holidays.This year, we're seeing people normalize a bit.
People saying, hey, you know, I didn't need to buy that extra bag of candy to my point, or maybe I will reuse last year's costume because I don't need a new costume.
It's those small individual decisions that then, you know, lead to a slight flattening in spend.
Right.Yeah, the idea of just cutting back on one bag of candy I'm sure that the candy makers aren't too thrilled about that.
Yes, and that's just an illustration.To your point, I'm using my own personal life.It could be saying, hey, I'm going to reuse decorations.
You're not suggesting that.
I am not, no.And especially there, I'm sure, some great Halloween options out there.
For sure.I guess nobody does apples and stuff like that anymore. the question we always get, so I must ask, and it's surprising that I've waited till this moment in time, popular costumes.
This was an interesting one this year, because last year was really dominated, as we know, by Barbie.So for the first time, I believe, we saw Barbie be in the top costumes for both adults and children.This year, that effect has gone away.
It certainly was spurred by the movie and everything else last year. But we are seeing, you know, kind of the continued impact of movies and shows on costumes.So certainly the top costumes remain for kids.Spider-Man, you know, remains the top.
Certainly various princesses, superheroes for kids are very popular.Ghosts, those types of things.But we're also seeing Beetlejuice for both kids and adults kind of come up there.Mario, Paw Patrol, I think for those with younger children.
Paw Patrol. Yes.I know Paw Patrol.
And then for adults, you know, witches, vampires, kind of the classics.But as I mentioned, definitely seeing the impact of the Beetlejuice movie.And then Inside Out 2, I think also had a little bit of an impact.
So you see all those kind of ripple through the costumes.I'm sure there'll be a lot of fun things out there.Some fun minions, I'm sure that was another big movie this summer.
So let's go to Paw Patrol real quick.Are your kids still Paw Patrolling?
They are not.That was never their show or their thing, so that was not our costume.But yeah, we'll have a, if the costumes still fit, because they wanted to reuse their costumes from last year.So again, those small decisions that impact spending.
But they are a little more than $5.I believe we will have a dinosaur and a fireman this year.
Oh, very nice.Excellent.People are shopping, obviously.Where are they shopping?
People really spread their shopping out for Halloween.Discount retailers are a top destination for Halloween because it can be a great place.Their assortment has really expanded in recent years.
They're getting candy, decorations, I'm sure stuff for costumes.I haven't checked recently.
I'm sure you can find whatever you're looking for for Halloween at discount retailers, department stores, also those specialty shops, specialty Halloween and party shops that pop up, and of course online.
So those are kind of the top destinations that we see for Halloween, but people are really shopping around.
You know, I think given what a big holiday it's become and the fact that people are starting so early, I think it's hard to find a retailer these days who's not carrying something that's Halloween related.
Yeah, I mean, yeah, everybody.You can't walk into a store without being confronted with Halloween stuff.
I'm getting the sense, Bill, that this is not just not your favorite event.You might actually be on the other side of the fence when it comes to Halloween.
Well, you said three quarters of Americans.You know, there's nothing wrong with being different.You know, I get it.Which leads to the question, Who celebrates Halloween?And what does Halloween represent to people?I mean, please help me to understand.
Well, I do think, you know, we've talked about this in past years.It certainly remains a holiday that's very popular for kids and families.And I think that will continue to be true, but it's a holiday that's also become very popular for adults.
Millennials embraced Halloween early on in their young adult lives and have kind of continued to care about it as a holiday moving forward.But also Gen Z has also really embraced this as a holiday.
So you're seeing it become sort of a holiday for everyone.But I would say it probably does skew towards younger demographics. We also see it being really popular among, you know, Hispanic consumers.They really embrace Halloween.
And so a lot of popularity among a lot of people.Maybe, Bill, you know, maybe this is the year you should try dressing up, going out.
Not going to happen.All right.So you may not know the answer to this and just say you don't know the answer, but is Halloween a global event?
That's a great question.I know that we have heard from some folks in other countries saying that they've started to see Halloween catch on there.
I don't think it's to the extent that it is popular here in the US, but I think people elsewhere in other markets have seen how much fun Americans have celebrating it. and some of the traditions that we have and have started to adopt some of them.
But I do think it remains probably largely popular among the US consumer.
Yeah.Well, to your point, I guess if people see how much fun we're having, they're going to want to have fun too.
So let's switch gears for a second and talk about, you know, the real holidays, which would be the holiday season, the thing that comes up around Thanksgiving through December when the holidays actually happen.What does that look like?
I mean, what are we seeing early on?I know we've got a lot of time to go before that, and I know that we're going to be doing a lot of research behind that.But right now, what are you seeing?
Well, we know, of course, you know, InterAFT is going to be coming out with a lot of data very soon around not just the economic outlook for the holidays, but also what consumers are expecting to spend, where they're expecting to shop, what they're expecting to buy.
You know, certainly we are seeing consumers have really embraced holidays of all, whether you count them as a holiday or not, all holidays so far this year continue to spend at very elevated levels.
So I do expect that we will see people embrace the holiday season. You know, we may not see people spending at the levels they did during the pandemic, but that's been true for a while.
We're seeing people really prioritize their family, really prioritize their friends and celebrations around that.I also think there's a lot going on in the world right now.We don't need to get into that, but people are seeking a sense of normalcy.
and some joy.And I think the holidays, whether it's Halloween, whether it's the winter holidays, can bring a little bit of that joy, a little bit of that sense of normalcy, maybe a little bit of escapism.
Of course, this year, certainly the calendar looks a little different.We know a lot of retailers are starting their sales early.
We know that in early November, consumers may be a little preoccupied with some political events, but there is still, you know, a lot of time for folks to do their shopping.
I think people will be very eager to embrace the holidays and embrace the holiday spirit.We may just see, you know, a few more kind of fits and starts rather than sort of a steady build like we have seen in the past.But, you know, who knows?
Yeah.Well, to your point, I think you raise a really, really good point.I think people, you know, you turn on the TV and it's just, there's not really a whole lot of good news out there right now.And so escapism, what is it?Retail therapy.
I mean, why not go out and just buy some stuff and feel good about it?
I also think if people are decorating for Halloween in early October or before, then by the time Halloween hits, people are ready to turn over a new leaf and swap those out for more holiday or winter themed decorations.
So I think we're also going to see a little bit of that idea that I'm ready for a new season, I'm ready to put some of these things away, I'm tired of orange, all of that, and kind of move on to all the tinsel and red and green or however you decorate your house.
Very good.Catherine Cullen, it's always a pleasure talking with you.Thank you for joining us again and again and again and again, but particularly today for Retail Gets Real.
Thank you so much, Bill, and I hope, despite your feelings about Halloween, that you do enjoy at least some fun chocolate treat or something else and maybe see a little bit why some Americans like the holiday.
Yeah, it's not on the Mediterranean diet.So, thank you all for listening to another episode of Retail Gets Real.You can find more information about this episode at retailgetsreal.com.I'm Bill Thorne.This is Retail Gets Real.
Thanks for listening and happy Halloween.
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