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Hello, everybody.Happy Friday.We have an amazing Friday points show for all of you.A little bit of election coverage.I know you didn't have enough election coverage.
You haven't had enough discussion of the polls, but what you actually have not had enough in your life is the four of us all together.So this is a real. preview of what is to come.And Ryan and Emily are going to give some predictions.That'll be fun.
Crystal and I will preview a little bit of what we're going to talk about.We've got what do we have on deck?We have polls.We're going to Trump and Cheney.That's right.
Well, I was just going to say, it's sort of funny because the way the first block is set up, it's a clip of Nate Silver being like, all these polls are bullshit.And then us proceeding to show you every poll that exists at this point.
So that's the game.We're going to do that. Um, we're also, yeah, Trump, uh, making some waves with some new comments about Louis Janney.Um, we'll show you those and her response and all of that.And then, uh, JD Vance on Joe Rogan.
We got a couple of clips from that that we can share with you too.So, um, yeah, let's go ahead and jump into it.Um, before I show the Nate Silver clip, we aren't going to have Ryan and Emily on air again.
I don't think until election night when we're all doing our live stream together in studio.So I wanted to give you guys a chance for like your sort of Polls are all basically tied.
It's a coin flip, so it's just down to everybody's gut check of what they think is going on or reading of various tea leaves.So what do you guys think, Emily?Which way are you leaning at this point?
Thank you for starting with me.
So eager to make this prediction.No, I mean, I have actually always had a feeling that Democrats just have a better chance in this election because the right underestimates how unpopular Donald Trump is.
And what I'm hearing from sources is that he's not making gains in the suburbs, but he is making gains in rural areas.
Some of them are really excited about those big gains in rural areas, which sounds interesting in 2024, almost a decade into the Trump phenomena.But it's a numbers game, right?
There aren't as many rural voters as there are suburban voters, and as horrible of a campaign as I think Kamala Harris has run, especially in the closing three weeks.Although she's kind of gotten it together this week.
But as horrible of a race as I think she's won, I mean, I think anybody.I think it's anybody's guess.I think we're all on the same page about that, but if somebody like put a gun to my head, I would probably say, OK, I guess.
But I'm going to up the stakes.It's not even just gun to your head.Give us each state.What do you think the swings?Oh, that's brutal.Give us this.Come on, you gotta call.You make a call.Christian, I'm going to do it.You gotta make a call.
Bad person.Make it back on.
You like my white face? I was deeply offended by that.
Yeah, it was a cultural appropriation saga.
Unacceptable.Well, okay, so I think Kamala Harris will win Wisconsin.I think she'll win Michigan.I think Trump will win Pennsylvania.And I think Kamala's route, if she wins, will be through the Sun Belt. Wow, really?
So like North Carolina, Nevada, I was going to say she'd have to do some upset there.
You and I are thinking similarly, but in a different direction.Ryan, what do you got?
I feel like this is that kind of election where afterwards it will look so obvious in hindsight.It always does.No matter who wins.Well, obviously, this is that's why that happened.But at this point, God, who knows?But since I have to pick,
I think that Kamala ends up holding Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and losing basically everything else.Got it.But that gives her 68.Yeah.Yeah.That would give her exactly 270.Right.
Yeah.As long as she wins that one Nebraska congressional, which looks I mean, the polling there is actually looked very strong for her.
So and then, oh, man, the public will be so mad at that one state senator.
Oh, my God.That guy needs to change his name, his address, flee the state.
Good luck. I was just looking grim political shifted that district to lean not, I think, a lean dem from toss up.So they're projecting that he's going to lose his seat, the Republican who does hold that district, which is pretty interesting.
That was a strong sign in terms of Nebraska, too.
Ryan, if if it does, if it does work out like you're saying, like the 270 to 68, where she wins through the, quote unquote, blue wall states, like what do you think will have happened there?Strength of suburban women or what are you?
Yeah, basically suburban women.And Democrats are still getting high 80s with the black vote.
And so even though they're bottoming it out in rural areas, if you have the suburbs, if you're winning the suburbs and you're winning the cities, you can lose rural America.Chris and I were joking on Twitter the other day
Trump relying on men is quite a risky bet.Actually, here's my ballot right here.I was just going to say, I think I lost my ballot.So I just found it.But I haven't sent it in.My wife sent hers in days and days ago. I'll probably go on election day.
And most men are going to be like, oh shit, today?God.Yeah.And then a bunch of them aren't going to show up.
Yeah.I've voted and Kyle has not.Wow.Really?Yeah.My wife and I voted together.
I'm actually the one who told her.I said, babe, we got to go to the polls.I said, what are we doing here?I don't want to wait in line.And that was like a week ago.So there you go.Sagar is the exception that proves it.
Yeah, sorry.You're an unusual creature, my friend.That's true.I know.Said with love.
Said with lots of love.I'm aware.
All right, let's go ahead and get to, yeah, let's get to Nate Silver first, informing us of why everything we're about to do in the rest of this block is worthless.But anyway, here we go.
This is Nate Silver talking about how the pollsters are hurting, meaning they're all putting their thumb on the scales to get basically a tied result.Let's take a listen to that.
Hold on, that's way too fast.
Well, it's not too fast for me.Let me slow that down.All right, we already have one point.Let me get my DMS on here.All right, here we go.
We are fifty four forty five with a small chance of a tie.It's been a little weird.I mean, look, it's gradually drifted to Trump over actually a fairly long period now.
And, you know, two out of every three days, Harris has lost ground in the forecast since since roughly early October.You know, it looks like it should stabilize a bit, maybe.
I don't think we're going to learn very much in this last week of the polling.In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less.Every time a pollster, oh, every state is It's just a plus one.Every single site's a tie.No, you're fucking hurting.You're cheating.
You're cheating.Your numbers aren't all going to come out at exactly one point leads.When you're sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys, you are lying.You're putting your fucking finger on the scale.
I will not name names, but some posters are really bad about this.
I think you get the gist there.And this is something, a phenomenon that we've been talking about.And I looked, Nate Cohn tweeted out what previous accurate polling looked like back in 2012 when the polls were more accurate.
And he was showing in each state, here's how much of a distribution you got.You'd get someone who was like, oh, it's plus 5 Barack Obama.Oh, actually Mitt Romney's leading.And the average overall was very close.
But you had a lot of variability within that. Now, you guys know, I mean, we're about to look at a ton of polls, most of which are like 49-49.Maybe Kamala's got a point edge.Maybe Trump's got a point edge.And yeah, I think they're terrified.
If they say it's 50-50, then they can't be too embarrassed no matter what happens.And these are human beings with incentives, and they do have the ability through making these likely voter model screens to put their thumb on the scales.
And yeah, I think they are.
Yeah, I tweeted this morning.I was like, one of the things, my biggest pulling lesson from this election is that pollsters don't have an incentive to get it right or even try.
It's just an incentive to preserve future business by not going out on a limb.I mean, that's frankly cowardly and a problem in an industry that is literally's entire job is forecasting.
is very helpful to people who are looking at this or trying to use like 2020 or whatever type comparisons.The truth is they have the fear of God in them from two subsequent times of having such massive misses in them.
So we're going to show you some indicators, but it's a lot more noisy, I think, than previously.I mean, that said, there are some who are going out on a limb.And for those we should take, we should pay attention.
the ones who are going out on a limb for trump and the ones who are going out on a limb for kamala because that actually in the future we could look to them as well what do y'all think ryan and emily it feels like a huge waste of everybody's time to like assign all these people to make all these phone calls
have people sit through these surveys, then have analysts go through all the surveys, if they're actually just working backwards from their assumption, which is that it's... Now, the way they could all be wrong is, let's say somebody wins a state by five points.
But then they'll say, well, everybody missed it, so it's not on me.Well, that's it.There's safety in numbers, too.
That's the hurting part.If everyone is saying it's 50-50, then no individual pollster has to be the one that, you know, what was it they said, Biden's going to win Wisconsin by 14 points or whatever.No one faces that level of reputational damage.
Ryan's cat, of course, but there are obviously structural problems that have not gone away, meaning you have this like massive tech gap between high propensity boomer voters, and this goes back obviously years, posters have been dealing with this for a long time.
And low propensity zoomer millennial voters who don't have landlines, and they're adopting to the, like that hasn't gone away.There is no good way to deal with that.Everybody knows that.
So I think it's, I think it's, there is some reasonable uncertainty, but I don't disagree with Nate Silver that people are playing a little fast and loose to preserve themselves.
And it's also because people have gotten really pissed off about polling.I think we used to, before it became so polarized, it used to be like, okay, well, you know, it's an art, not a science.And now it's just like, man,
Yeah, well, and I will say there's a lot more punishment meted out when they underestimate Republicans.Yes.And like they missed in 2022, they underestimated Dems, but they didn't get like ripped a new one over it.
So that creates certain incentives, too.And we know because of Nate Cohn's analysis that They have basically tried to collude, just like we're just going to assume that we're getting some Trump non-voter response.
And so we're just going to sort of collude your way to bump up his poll numbers.Many of the pollsters are doing that.So we know they've really tried to adjust.
But they also could be that they're correct about that, that they are missing some chunk of Trump voters that they missed in 2016 and missed again in 2020.So who knows?
I just want to quickly say the Federalist posted an article this week that said the stigma around being a Trump supporter is gone.And as Ryan mentioned on our show on Wednesday, he said, if anyone would know, it's the Federalist.
And that is affecting polling.There's no question about it.And what pollsters have been doing for the last couple of cycles is trying to address that, quote, shy Trump supporter.
But what if the shy Trump supporter is totally gone and their adjustments are actually missing, that people are now much more eager to say, Hell, yeah, I'm voting for Donald Trump.
You know, that guy I heard on Theo Vaughn, like the stigma is very, very different this time.Oh, yeah.So I thought that was an interesting point, too.
Who was it on our show that made a point that Trump supporters these days are not all that shy about saying they're voting for Trump?
I think it might have been Logan that said that, wasn't it?
I mean, it's definitely true.If you spend any time in Trump country during this election, the T-shirts, the truck bumper stickers and the signs are more out of control than I've ever seen ever before.
And I lived in a place that voted 90 percent for George W. Bush.
I don't know that the shy Trump voter theory was ever real, because I think actually the problem in 2016 was just they didn't have enough non-college educated people.It wasn't that people were not admitting.
It was that they were not being sampled properly.But the Democrats have a theory there's a shy Kamala voter, predominantly women whose husbands are voting Trump, and they don't want to cause marital distress by admitting they want to vote for Kamala.
And they've had a whole ad series that's been very controversial. dedicated to telling women, like, don't worry, you still have your choice in the voting booth, blah, blah, blah.I think Julia Roberts voiced one.
Chuck Rocha told me yesterday, actually, on Undercurrents, he said he was like, no, that's 100% real.He said that they're absolutely seeing it, and that's why they're putting money behind it, which I was totally skeptical of.Maybe.
But he's under the impression that's totally real.
All right, well, we're going to find out.
How will they know after the fact?
Yeah, exactly.If it's real, how'd they find these women?Who told them?
Yeah, that's an interesting question.
If they're not willing to talk about it.
If they're so shy, they're not admitting it.
Yeah, you'd have to just like... They just got him on Monday night while the dude was at the bar watching football.
After the wine had a couple of glasses in, after the kids were in bed.
The concerns are infiltrating their book clubs.
Yes, it could be book clubs.
The playgroup was infiltrated.OK.All right.I got Polly Market up on the screen here.Sagar, tell me you sent in this element.Tell me why this was significant to you.
So there's been movement there.Actually, more recently, it's gone back.But Crystal, can you hit politics, please, up at the top and just click the politics ones?Because I want to show people the battleground states specifically.
If you just scroll down a little bit and you look for Michigan and Wisconsin, You can actually see that she has taken the lead in both of those states.That was a huge swing that just happened in the last 24 hours.
If you go back, the same thing has now happened in Wisconsin.Just in the last 24 hours, there's been a massive shift in both markets.Just from a pure betting point of view, I've been talking about this a little bit on the show.
There has been basically like an ocean of dumb money that has come into poly market that is purely trying to vote based on vibes.The big problem.Yeah.So there you go.
You can see Kamala at 52 and all of that movement has happened literally in the last 24 hours and actually more like in the last hour. six hours.
Basically what happened is in the early days of sports betting is that it was very similar where the sports books didn't really know how to quote unquote price a line.
And so what will happen is that you will have quote unquote sharp bettors, people who disagree with this, who will wait until the last minute or they will lock in something that they see as very unfavorable to the odds.
And this is a huge problem because Polymarket has been dramatically out of step with just the basic Nate Silver model, which was the most accurate predictor of results in 2016 and in 2020.
And so you can tell that the irrational exuberance has really happened, has had now a major correction. I wouldn't say that Trump won't maintain the lead just because I think a ton of money was already placed on bets his side.
And of course, there's also a lot of narrative stuff going on with this.
But if you look at the state by state data, the 270, 268 path in particular that Ryan is laying out is becoming a big bet on the on poly market with with tens of millions of dollars behind him.
Yeah.Yeah.I mean, it's also just significant because the right is focused so much.
And Elon in particular has pumped up Polly market so much that it's like, you know, if it's shifting some, that's I don't know, maybe it shouldn't be important, but it's interesting to look at billions, at least a billion five in the market.
It's not small.You know, this is a real thing.
Sagar, there was a French billionaire who was gaming it for Trump, right?Like the mask.
But yeah, I mean, whether he was, you know, legitimately just really believed in Trump or was he also really French or a French VPN?
OK, so like, let's.Very true.
I've got up the Marist final polls from the Blue Wall.Now, Marist is significant.We had on Edinger Mentum yesterday who called the 22 race correctly and called the Warnock election correctly as well and did not buy into the red wave narrative.
And Marist was one of the polls that was correct.
in 2022, and it's one of the pollsters that he sort of like, you know, looks to the most as not falling in so much to the hurting and, you know, and the putting of the thumb on the scales as many other pollsters.
So they find here a tight race, but pretty good for Kamala.She's up in all three of the blue wall states. She's up 51-48 in Michigan, 50-48 in Pennsylvania, and 50-48 in Wisconsin as well.
You've got the Senate numbers here as well, but also look quite similar for Democrats.The Senate Democrats in the blue wall are no longer outperforming Kamala as significantly, at least, as they were in the past.
So less ticket splitting, it looks like there, but again, who knows?
Yeah, the Marist one in particular was the most interesting Marist.You can actually pick in either direction because it had big miss in 2020.That's what a lot of, you know, GOP people are talking about.It actually, though, was very accurate in 2022.
That was one of the only ones that high quality so-called poster in 2022 that called Fetterman up by I think it was two or three points in the state.So it's one to take advantage of looking for.
If you're looking for the signal there, I think this, and I think we're about to talk about this, senior vote in PA are two like flashing signs of potential Kamala victory in all three of those states.
Yeah, that's that's exactly right.Let me see what I got up next here.Next, I've got another.I've got just the rundown you sent soccer of all the Pennsylvania.
Yeah, let me let me pull this up.Hold on.Let me see if I can screw this up.Here we go.Yeah, here's the rundown of all the recent Pennsylvania polling among likely voters.Maris, as we said, D plus two Fox tie. Quinnipiac R plus one CNN tie CBS tie.
So and then you've got more down here.Marist D plus three.Oh, this is Michigan WAPO D plus one Fox D plus two CNN D plus five.Michigan appears to be Kamala's most certain state at this point.
Wisconsin D plus two D plus two D plus six and tie North Carolina.Anyway, it goes on from there.A lot of.
And then as you get to Arizona is the state that is the swing state that is probably the most favorable for Trump, either there or Georgia, where the polling has been a little bit more erratic, more of a more variability there.
Yeah, I guess let's give the Trump case.I think don't you have Atlas, which is listed up next?Atlas was quite what was it, the most accurate pollster in twenty twenty.And yeah, I believe that one that one's listed next, Crystal, in the rundown.
Yeah, here we go right underneath there.So, yeah, there you go.And you can see wide margin of strength for Trump in Arizona, in North Carolina, in Nevada.He's got a couple of points.
Georgia actually has tighter at one point six just for Donald Trump.But they have Trump leads in all three of the states, with Wisconsin actually being the tightest one at point three. What do you make of that?
On the betting markets right now, Wisconsin is actually what a lot of people have as going to be the tightest state for Spattleground State.I think it was the second tightest last time in 2016.What do you think is going to happen there?
I mean, both candidates have spent a truly outrageous amount of time there.Hillary Clinton, obviously, there's good reason for that.But it's, I mean, it's tied.That's all I see.Like the RCP average has actually Harris up in their national average.
I'm looking at it right now.They have her up in every blue wall state except for Pennsylvania.So in Wisconsin, it's only by 0.3, though. on the national RCP average.So it's just they have a huge Senate race.
And I know like, Ryan and Crystal, you guys have covered Tammy Baldwin's career for a long time.She's very popular in Wisconsin, the Republican candidate has inflation and immigration going for him.
But he's kind of actually interned for him when I was but a young, a young student.
His other things going against him, just being an out-of-state multi-multi-millionaire or someone who's pegged as out-of-state.So it's too close.
And I know that's not very useful, but I have sources saying they're seeing in Wisconsin in particular the rural margins going up. Which again, I find just fascinating.
Like now people say I'm turning out for Trump and I'm voting for Trump in these rural areas after nearly a decade of the Trump phenomena.But they say they're clearly not confident in the suburban margins.
They either feel like they're going to keep losing in the Wow counties, that's Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington outside of Milwaukee. And if their margin, Trump will win all of those counties.
But if he keeps losing or if he keeps winning by less, then that's a real disaster.Yeah, I don't know that you can mathematically make up for that with the rural voters.
And I think Ryan probably sees something similar as a Pennsylvania guy when you look at the collar counties outside Philadelphia.
We got some new two new CNN battleground polls as well.They had already released their blue wall polls and to their credit showed, you know, something other than a tie.
They showed Harris with a significant lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and then it tied in Pennsylvania.This time they've got Georgia, Trump, 48, 47, North Carolina, Kamala, 48, 47.So there you go.Whatever you can make of that, I don't really know.
But, you know, this If this was all accurate, perfectly accurate, I guess Kamala would win depending on Nevada.But this Pennsylvania being a tie really kind of PA is the really kind of screws screws it up.
Yeah, there to be able to make any sort of real prediction based on on any of that.
Yeah, I mean, if look, if you put the polling aside, you know, let's focus on the actual like vote and stuff that we're seeing.Yeah, I'm glad you put this up there on the screen.This has been the thing I've heard.
I have a few friends who are real like GOP Cassandra's like they're 100 percent convinced Trump is going to lose. I always check in with them because it's a very good check.
This is one of the ones that they've been pointing to me a lot, quote, as the early results from P.A.reveal an influx of first time female voters who will break for Harris.Newfound anxiety is taking hold.
And in Mar-a-Lago, they are starting to believe that the surge last week was two weeks premature.
Put the whole surge stuff, you know, like out of it, because a lot of this is I don't even necessarily know if like the current vibe of the election would have affected that.
I think the truth is that the electorate has just changed a lot, and this is one of the big problems with the 2020 recall to vote waiting that a lot of these pollsters are doing.We were talking right before, Crystal, about in-migration.
The character of each of these states, specifically the battleground states, has changed dramatically in terms of North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, just population wise.Then add on top of that,
that you have had not similar changes in the blue wall states.But demographically, you've had that massive suburban swing that has happened for Kamala Harris.It's a hidden sign of strength for her.It always has been.
Trump's major strength would be his ability to drive out that rural vote, like Emily said.And one of the signs of strength for him is, for example, in Georgia today, there is actually a higher turnout amongst rural counties.
Some of these rural counties are already at 92 percent of their election day totals before the ballots have even been cast on election day.
And they are much higher, some like 30 percent higher than actually in the suburban counties in Georgia that are surrounding metro Atlanta.
So the only really way that this election will turn for Trump is if there is there is that similar like strength, even more like one hundred and ten percent in the rural counties.And
specifically also with the black and Latino vote to offset any white suburban shift.But this is why it is still such a very, very tight race here.That's what I really saw.
Ryan, in 2016, Schumer famously said, basically, like, you know, for every voter we lose that's working class or rural, we'll gain two in the Pennsylvania suburbs.And, you know, this indicates that that math may actually now be paying off, I guess.
I mean, basically, he was running a cynical math game that we are a country that is like, you drive around our country, we're a suburban country.It's suburbs from coast to coast, plus then some cities inside there.
And then you get out in the rural areas, those are pretty suburban. I think more people consider themselves living in a rural area than actually do live in a rural area.
Now, if people vote based on how they feel and identify, then it doesn't actually matter that they're wrong about where they live.But yeah, I mean, the Democrats are going to test the theory.
How badly can you completely bottom out among an entire kind of regional sector of the vote and still maintain a nationwide competitiveness?
This part is so key, too, that you have in front.Is this Trump lagging in the early vote with seniors?And I was thinking about it.If Kamala is given the White House in 270, 268 by boomers in PA,
But Trump wins the black Latino vote and he actually wins all the most economically dynamic states, which is across the Sun Belt.We'll have like one of those reverse 2016 situations where what did Hillary say?She was like, I want all the places.
What did she say about it?She was like, we're dynamic and growing or doing well. Yeah, and he went all the places they're doing bad.
It actually would be the opposite this time around, which kind of fits if you think about my whole Barstool conservative thesis about, like, you know, libertarian economics and specifically the type of people who would move to a Sunbelt state where the election, you know, where the economy is the preeminent one, as opposed to P.A., where it's pretty clear, like a lot of the people who are coming in for common, the Democrats are coming on the back of abortion.
And it's just like one of the number one catalysts for that surge in suburban vote, and specifically also with women.
And let me just quickly put some numbers on this because I have them in front of me.This is according to Pew.
To just visualize the difference between rural, suburban and urban voters, 46 million Americans live in the nation's rural counties, 175 million in its suburbs and small metros, and then about 98 million in its urban core counties.
So, I mean, it's really just it's not even close.
Yeah, and I guess the other question with the early vote that people have been raising, you know, where there's huge early turnout in these rural counties is at the end of the day, where these just people who are going to show up on election day and now they're showing up early, you know, so it doesn't really.
impact the turnout margin, et cetera, in these counties.And, you know, still very much too early to tell on any of that.Next, we have another, you know, if you're making the bull case for Democrats, this is the enthusiasm numbers.
And you can actually see that they have maintained.Now, Democrats have actually slid a little bit since basically like Kamala's pick, but still they have maintained very high enthusiasm numbers higher than the Republicans.
And I feel like you can get that vibe a little bit.Some of Trump's rallies are a little bit more low energy than they used to be.
Certainly massive turnout for Kamala in the places where she is popular on the ellipse where you guys were the other night.I've also seen numbers which are kind of wild to me that she's as popular with Democrats as Barack Obama was at his
peak in 2008, which is, you know, surprising.
But in any case, he also faced a primary.That's true.Clinton people hated him.
That is true.You also at that point had more people who are in that like, you know, Appalachian in particular.I still identify as a Democrat, but I'm really not a Democrat outside of maybe like voting for county officials.
And most of that realignment has all shaken out.That's played out.
Yeah. All right, let me see what I got here next.This is interesting about where the turnout is, that rural turnout.This is from Greg Blustein down in Georgia, a great reporter at Atlanta Journal Constitution.
He says the highest early voting turnout in Georgia is not in Democratic strongholds like DeKalb County or the fiercely contested suburbs that surround metro Atlanta.It's in sparsely populated rural counties. where Republicans dominate.
So this is what you guys have been talking about.Like I said, the Democratic cope here is that, OK, but those people are just going to vote on Election Day.So no big deal.And also, by the way, there's not enough of them.
But it can also be an indicator of, hey, your opponent is really fired up.They are turning out to vote early in potentially unprecedented numbers.
It's totally what I'm hearing from Republicans.That's really where they're getting their source of hope from right now is what they're seeing in early voting in rural areas.
And I mean, Emily, is there a nervousness there, though?Like, there's a lot of bravado publicly.But are you like we we showed the reporting, I believe, from Puck News earlier that said there was anxiety in particular about Pennsylvania.
Is that accurate to the best of your knowledge?
Totally.And that said, and Sagar, you're probably seeing this too, it's almost polarized within like GOP circles where you have some people who are feeling jittery because of that.
And then you have other people who are like, actually, we're going to see Trump win the popular vote.He's going to sweep the blue wall.And he's been surging the last few weeks. She's been struggling.
We've just seen him be underestimated in those national averages and the fact that he's tied Means that he's probably up by three or four points and so election day comes around and you see him win Wisconsin by two you see him win, Pennsylvania by three you see him just absolutely crush, North Carolina and Georgia and It's we we know the answer pretty early.
So I people are like in one of two camps There aren't a lot of people in the middle people are either like who? These numbers have us feeling a little uncomfortable because the suburban vote or people like actually he's being underestimated.
The other caution I would throw out for people out there is there's a real public private game happening right now.So I noticed this with like Democratic election experts, like everything is about like
Well, actually, here's why the Democratic turnout's like not that bad, or actually, here's why, you know, the Democratic turnout is going to be OK.
And there's also a huge I mean, because Twitter right now is signal boosting like so much pro Trump content.There's a real effort to try and just like demoralize the left. by saying like, oh, it's going to be a Trump blowout victory.
It's going to be this.The smart ones, the smarter ones, I will say, are people like Mike Cernovich and Charlie Kirk, who I noticed, you know, were originally doing that.But when they got the data in, they were like, OK, we have a problem here.
Men are not voting.We need to get our asses out.We need to go vote right now.
But there is still I have noticed like a commentator or a polling analysis types which have grown up on the right, which are very, very obviously geared to trying to demoralize the left.
And so you what I'm saying that is for people who are out there who are just scrolling, you may not know that is you should really like think about the motivations also of the poster, because sometimes a lot of it is not honest analysis.
I saw a lot of this back in 2020.Oh, Trump, you know, Virginia is in play.It's like, no, it's not.You know, it's not. Like we just saw a Roanoke poll this morning has Harris up by 10 points.Or remember in 2020, New Mexico is in play like again.
No, it's not.You know, Trump lost it by more in 2020 than he did in 2016, and he'll probably lose it by.I mean, polls just saw this morning in New Mexico is down by 12.So now why is Trump in both of these states in the last week of the election?
Beats me.You know, that's that's.
All politics is national, so it kind of doesn't really matter where he does the rally at this point if the rally gets coverage.Ryan, do you get any vibes from the Democratic side, or they're too mad about you opposing their genocide to talk about?
No, no.Their vibe is nervous, with some cautious optimism that they're in it.
Isn't the Democratic vibe always nervous, though?
Yes.I agree with that.Except 2016.
They were famously not nervous in 2016.They will never be confident again.I was there, man, at the Javits Center.It was sad.It was a sad place to be, let me tell you.It was a sad place to be. All right, we got some dueling endorsements here.
Let me just quickly go through these.We got LeBron James sharing some Tony Hinchcliffe and endorsing Kamala Harris.I won't play the video, but it's like, you know, a compilation of basically like. hateful comments from Trump and various supporters.
We also, though, got on the other side, Jake Paul endorsing Donald Trump.And I actually didn't I'm not sure what the content is of this video.And it's 18 minutes of Jake Paul's explanation for his endorsement.
Maybe somebody else here can share some more insight there.
Uh, no, I mean, it's, uh, you know, as, as an original team 10 person, uh, this is of course, shocking to see somebody, uh, who I used to watch during prank videos now literally endorsing Trump.
But look, uh, Jake Paul, Logan Paul, it's not a surprise.There were two who are original, like from some of the early influencers who were kind of flirting with and or endorsing Trump, interviewing him.
It's if you if you look at the world that they swim in from crypto to boxing, UFC, like the bro sphere online, it's very obvious what that trend and direction is.For example, like Jake was a big Vivek Ramaswamy guy.Right.So there you go.Like
Where does that come from?It's very much like the podcast world.And so, I mean, this is a big bet.And that's Ryan, what you just talked about.The bet is, is these people will come out to vote.
Now, statistically, it doesn't really happen, but 2020 was a very high turnout election.We don't think that 2024 will reach 2020 levels, but it'll probably be higher than 2016.
I think the youth vote was higher in 2020 than it had been in quite a long time.So, you know, if you see people who are jazzed up and potentially, you know, this could be something that swings in their direction.
So I don't I wouldn't dismiss it, because if their theory of the the male turnout in the gender gap is correct, especially in terms of enthusiasm, getting people out to vote, it will be like genuinely a landmark moment, especially in some of those swing states where if that's what the margin of victory is, it'll be pretty crazy.
Yeah, and it's a huge long-term problem for Democrats regardless, even if they eke this one out.Just not having Democrats even be part of the conversation among one of two genders is insane.Pretty much everything that
that men do ends up being coded as Republican and right wing.Whether it's exercise, trying to stay healthy, watching sports, just talking about sports, whatever it is, it drifts into the world of conservative podcasting.
And they're just, other than Hasan Piker, there's nobody there.
Mm-hmm.You're there, Ryan.
Me.Other than me.You're there.Yeah.And you.And Hasan Piker.
I don't know that I'm really helping.But of course, I mean, the flip side of that is obviously Republicans struggling with women.
And the bet that's being placed in this particular election is Republicans think the motivation of the podcast circuit and Trump going on Rogan and Jake Paul endorsing and whatever
will be sufficient motivation and energizing enough on the bro side to overcome the sense among many women, and young women especially, that they have lost a right that they previously took for granted.
It's kind of incredible that she didn't take up the Joe Rogan opportunity.And I wonder if she'll kind of be the last one that blows that. If she loses, that will be a huge retcon.
That'll be one of those like we gotta do not.
I'm just not as sold on it because number I just. There's a lot of risk there for her, as we know.
Right.She individually may not just be equipped for three hours of that.Exactly.Yeah, that's fair.
Yeah.And then it's like, how many of these people are winnable, motivatable, et cetera?I don't really disagree with their analysis of basically like, hey, if you'll do an hour and come to us, I guess we'll make it work.
But in the home stretch, we've got other fish to fry.
I think a lot of them would have been winnable, but not necessarily by her.
What they need is a candidate who can sit down for three or four hours.
Yeah, I think Bernie did very well.Rogan's audience, I think, at that point, and Rogan himself, was ideologically different when Bernie sits down with him.And Bernie also, by the way, didn't do three hours.But people liked him on that podcast.
And he was able to go with the flow and do his Bernie thing.
He just did it for Lex Friedman. Well, I was just gonna say quickly, it's a problem for Democrats, obviously, but it's a huge problem for Republicans.
There are abortion referendums on the ballot when people are going to vote all over the country right now.So the gender gap, which literally, as we were talking, I had a GOP source say, we will see the largest gender gap in an election in decades.
Well, it gets us right back to the same math that we're doing between rural and suburban.It's like, you can win all of the bros.
But Megyn Kelly and Nikki Haley, even this week after the Madison Square Garden rally, were like, dude, you are turning off women.So it's not even just abortion.It's just the bro-coded stuff.
Like you can try to amp up the male voters, just like you can try to amp up the rural voters for turnout.But then does it go too far in that direction?And do you hurt your margins in other places?
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All right, we're going to turn now to Liz Cheney.Donald Trump did an event last night with Tucker Carlson, made some, quote unquote, eye popping comments.We can debate what exactly he said, whether it even should be all that controversial.
But Crystal, do you have it?
I do.Let me let me pull this up here.Here we go.This is getting a lot of attention on cable news and with Democrats in particular.So here, let's take a listen.
And Cheney was so that he said, I really want to thank you.He said, now I'm so glad that I actually endorsed you.It's amazing that you would do this.And I didn't speak to him about it.But then, you know, go a couple of years forward to go now.
And I don't blame him for sticking with his daughter.But his daughter is a very dumb individual, very dumb. She's a radical war hawk.Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, okay?Let's see how she feels about it.
You know, when the guns are trained on her face. You know, they're all war hawks when they're sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, oh, gee, well, let's send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy.But she's a stupid person.
And I used to have, I'd have meetings with a lot of people, and she always wanted to go to war with people.So whether it's her, whether it's, I was surprised a little bit with Dick Cheney.I didn't know him at all.
I only had essentially the one or two phone calls, and it was only a call saying, thank you very much for doing that for Scooter Libby.That was nice.And Scooter Libby, by the way, was beyond that.He couldn't believe that it happened.
Nobody would do it.They should have done that for him years before.But I was a little surprised because I actually thought that Dick Cheney would go with me over his daughter, and he didn't.And you know what?I understand it.
It's your daughter and you go.But she's a bad person.
So to me, well, I'll let I'll let the rest of you guys react, but it's kind of wild to me that he was sad that he didn't get the Dick Cheney endorsement.
See, Cable keeps talking about that.For me, I'm like, bro, we don't want the Dick Cheney endorsement.That's the whole point.
Like Dick is way worse than Liz.All right.Like she's got the bad ideology.Like he did the thing like and you're still like, gosh, I wish Dick Cheney had endorsed me.It just shows you to me.
And then we can talk about the comments that, you know, I think for reasons that are, you know, not unreasonable that got picked up on where he was saying, you know, let's see her with the guns pointed at her face or something like that.
But but, you know, it shows you all of this.Oh, the neocons are with Kamala and Trump is antiwar and whatever. None of this is ideological for him.He still loves Mike Pompeo.Mike Pompeo might be the Secretary of Defense.
Tom Cotton might be the Secretary of Defense.He's still pining after the Dick Cheney endorsement.He campaigned with Liz Cheney last time he ran, and she supported him throughout his entire term in office.So for him, it's just all about
number one, like how sort of prestigious he thinks you are.
So he thinks Dick Cheney, because he was vice president, he's well known, blah, blah, blah, is prestigious, even though he's like, to me, one of the most evil, most nefarious politicians we've ever had in American politics.
But then number two, and most importantly, it's not about ideology.It's about how do you feel about me personally?And did you come through for me personally when I needed and wanted you?
If you're looking for ideological coherence from Donald Trump and your Republican voter, I've got some bridges to sell you in terms of the cable comments.
So I will I will quote from Zach Beauchamp, who can we all agree Zach Beauchamp is a is a major liberal Kamala Harris type figure.He says, folks, Trump did not threaten to execute Liz Cheney.He actually was calling her chicken hawk.
something liberals have said about her for ages.Look at the context.Trump is talking about giving her a weapon.Typically, people put in front of firing scarves aren't armed.Trump does so many offensive things.
He makes so many anti-democratic promises.It is counterproductive to get outraged about fake ones.
That and if you also combine Glenn Greenwald's long list there of all the chicken hot comments that people have made throughout the 2000s about the Cheney's, that is one of the most sane things that Trump has actually said about Liz Cheney.
So I'll leave it at that.
I think he's making a legitimate point, but it's somewhat amusing that he's making the point as they are saying that Kamala Harris calling him a fascist and a Nazi is incitement to another assassination attempt.
So if we're playing this game, I mean, obviously, we can't have the political candidates to this.
Thank you for saying that. Emily, can you sound off on this?This what did Mark Cuban say something about like stupid women?He was like, no, intelligent women support.
But Trump had an all time Hall of Fame level tweet at.
Yes, I saw that.Yeah.Where he's like, he doesn't even have club speed.This is two words.Let's let's slow.Let's talk about golf, right?Yeah.Republican Republican snowflakes on this.They're like, I'm a strong woman and I support Trump.
I'm like, you are just as much of a loser then as those pussy hat wearing liberals. If you're out there like, sorry, like, you know, like, do we reject identity stuff or not?Like, are we getting offended at things or not?
And it's like the selective bias on this drives me crazy because they're like Mark Cuban doesn't respect women because he said smart women don't surround themselves with Trump.And they're like, I'm a smart woman who works for Donald Trump.
I'm like, that's like Hillary Clinton era like bullshit.So thank you for saying thank you for saying it.
Well, no, I mean, it's virtue signaling, right?Like, it's what's so insufferable about virtue signaling on the left is that there's a sanctimony to it.It's the same thing when it's on the right.
Now, Mark Cuban said something really dumb, by the way, from the interior of what appeared to be his private jet while he was beaming into the view and assuring everybody that Kamala Harris would be the best president for them.
So it's amusing all around.Like, there are no real winners here in this situation. I do think it is a little bit precious to defend Donald Trump saying, let's see Liz Cheney with a gun in her face.
And by the way, the reason, you know, if Kamala or Tim Walz or Mark Cuban or whatever said that about, let's say, Tulsi Gabbard or Trump himself, there would be quite a reaction, you know, coming coming from that side with that level of, like, you know, visceral, violent type rhetoric.
I mean, again, though, it's a war hawk comment.It's like, hey, put a gun in her face.She doesn't work.That's a chicken hawk point.That's you know, I mean, I remember saying shit like that about George W. Bush.Right.Like I think it was fine anyway.
Look, what do you think, Ryan?
I think it's not fair for people to want descriptions of war to be more sanitized like that, because that's basically what they're saying.They're saying it's OK to call somebody a chicken hawk.
But you should leave it at chicken hawk and say they should go to war But but when you get into the grisly details of what war is like, that's that's a little bit too much But that is the essence of the chicken hawk critique that war is hell and that nobody who's ever experienced the hell of it Would think it is anything other than hell now some people who've experienced it still think it's necessary to create the world that we want to live in etc and
But the idea is that it is hell, and it is grisly.And people do have guns pointed at their face and bullets that rip through their skulls and end their lives.And that seeing it change, seeing it and being part of it changes you.
So I think it's just kind of unfair to say you can call someone a chicken hawk, but you can't describe the grisly details of war.Because that's the whole point.
There's, of course, another element to this, which is that Trump himself used Bo's birth to get out of serving.He's a draft dodger.It's true.It's a totally fine thing to say, too.
Yeah, but his own his own vietnam.You guys all know.
Oh, yeah, not getting stds.
Oh, yeah Avoiding chlamydia.
Yeah Thank you for your service So this is liz cheney's response.She says this is how dictators destroy free nations.
They threaten those who speak against them with death We cannot entrust our country and our freedom to a petty vindictive cruel unstable man who wants to be a tyrant and so
You know, I think Democrats feel like, you know, while they're trying to lay the fascist charge at his feet and they're also trying to change the topic from a news cycle about whether or not Joe Biden said that Trump supporters are, quote unquote, garbage.
I think they are happy to seize on these comments as well.And as a reminder that of some of the things that people really don't like about Donald Trump and
You know, I've been thinking about this because we've been going back and forth a little bit on this.But part of what has made Trump hold up so well in this election is that his approval rating is significantly higher than it used to be.
And so he's still underwater in most polls by, you know, by some amount, but not nearly where he used to be.And so Democrats paid advertisements are by and large going after like it's more of like a class war message.
But obviously, Kamala did the ellipse speech.They amplified the comments from John Kelly saying, hey, I serve with this guy and he is a fascist.
And so they feel like this very visceral invocation of violent rhetoric kind of fuels and serves to remind people of some of the elements of him that they don't like and plays into their argument about who he is ultimately.
I'll give it to them.I mean, because they've got the media on their side, basically, they are literally saying on CNN all morning, they're like, oh, he wants to put Trump or Liz Cheney in a firing squad.
If I combine that with the senior figure, I will say, yeah, that's a problem.Now, again, I don't I think it's a dishonest presentation by CNN and MSNBC based on that.
But if the senior vote is correct, the numbers that are coming out right now, I mean, just anecdotally, seniors who I've spoken to, they bring up the wildest shit.You know, they'll be like, oh, did you see Trump called?
you know, veterans, suckers and losers.I'm like, bro, what?Like this is a bullshit story.And but they don't want to hear it.Like that's the type of stuff that they take in or the type of things that piss them off more.
What I'll say is just so different than I think a lot of people who watch our show.So I could see this presentation by CNN, MSNBC and all of that feeding into that crystal, because that is specifically the that is the strategy of the Harris Cheney
voter.I mean, like we see this, for example, in P.A.at that event.It was not an accident.
Ryan, you'll know that it was in Malvern, one of the wealthiest, I believe the wealthiest city, one of the wealthiest in the mainline suburban Philadelphia area.
So I could see it and that, you know, a lot of older voters there in that in that respect.It's true.
Look, I think there are decorum voters. Absolutely.You know, and not just older.I think I don't think just older.I think, you know, the suburban women vote that they are chasing very hard.
Like, I think there are who, you know, respect Liz Cheney for whatever reason, whether they should or not, as actually, I don't even think that's a question they shouldn't.
But but yeah, I think there is a decorum voter out there who feels like these comments are too far, who don't want the visceral description of war, even though that should be put in our face more often.To your point, Ryan.
Yeah, I'm in the minority on this.
Yeah, I mean, I was just going to say the reason that Liz Cheney is being deployed is specifically for women voters.And so the bro code thing, you know, J.D.Vance on Joe Rogan yesterday.
And I think Sager and I probably agree that he did a good job for a number of reasons and that that'll be helpful for a number of reasons, although people probably don't elect vote to elect vice presidents.
But Liz Cheney is specifically being used by Democrats to get this very small slice of the electorate pie. which is suburban swing women voters who might be persuaded by Liz Cheney to vote for Kamala Harris.And so it's not a huge group of people.
But Trump then saying, yeah, let's see what happens if she gets blasted in the face or you put a rifle in her face.I shouldn't misrepresent the comments, but put a gun in her face.
Those people are probably already leaning towards Kamala Harris, but it's definitely not helpful because the media is going to run with it all day on CNN.
It's not probably the closing argument of the Republicans' dreams.
Yeah, I mean, we're not going to cover J.D.because we're out of time.But I mean, this is the problem with having somebody who just talks a lot like and you know, it's like if you compare the appearances, I challenge I challenge people out there.
Listen to Trump and J.D.on Rogan back to back.Same interviewer, you know, like same studio and all of that.
And you tell me who has a better command of the facts, a better articulation of the case, a better like cares about you, like better on every single thing that people say that they like.But then also we know that
You know, Trump is the person who won the GOP primary.So that also tells us quite a bit about what those voters want from him.So there you go.
Yeah, well, I think we'll probably maybe cover on Monday.Sorry, you and I can talk more about the J.D.Vance interview.
But I mean, he has positioned himself very well within the Republican Party, you know, but now it all comes down to Trump, how this election goes.Does he win?Does he lose?What is the stop?What is the flavor of the stop the steal this time?
If Trump does lose, does J.D.go along with it?Like there's still a lot of tripwires for him, but no doubt in terms of like the conservative base. He has done himself a lot of favors there.
Very true.All right.That's a good tease.Ryan M. Thank you for joining us, guys.This was fun.Good time.Yeah.
Like you guys opened up by saying it was a Friday points or points Friday, because that way you.Yeah, he's a Friday points.Yeah, it's Friday.Are they breaking or are they countering?Nobody knows.
I think that's up to the judge.
We report.You decide.We report.You decide.All right.
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