You can't outrun voters' feelings about the economy AI transcript and summary - episode of podcast Code Switch

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Episode: You can't outrun voters' feelings about the economy

Author: NPR
Duration: 00:23:38

Episode Shownotes

As we take in the news of another Donald Trump administration, we thought who better to turn the mic over to than the hosts of NPR's Politics Podcast.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Summary

In this episode of "Code Switch," the hosts discuss how voters' feelings about the economy significantly shape electoral behavior, particularly amidst the backdrop of a potential new Donald Trump administration. They explore the complexities of voter demographics, including Latino and Black communities, and the implications of Trump’s policies on the political landscape. The episode highlights the political shift following Trump's election victory, the collapse of the Democratic coalition, and the confidence of Republican leaders in pushing their agenda. The challenges facing the Democratic Party in reconnecting with its traditional voter base are also underscored, especially as economic concerns take precedence in voter decision-making.

Go to PodExtra AI's episode page (You can't outrun voters' feelings about the economy) to play and view complete AI-processed content: summary, mindmap, topics, takeaways, transcript, keywords and highlights.

Full Transcript

00:00:01 Speaker_01
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00:00:17 Speaker_07
Hey everyone, you're listening to Code Switch, the show about race and identity from NPR. I'm Bea Parker.

00:00:23 Speaker_11
And I'm Gene Demby.

00:00:26 Speaker_07
We know there's a lot going on in the world right now, but let's be real. Is anyone's mind on anything besides the results of the election? We just spent so many months listening to pundit after pundit speculating about which way this was going to go.

00:00:42 Speaker_07
We watched the candidates make their pitches in Wisconsin and Arizona and Pennsylvania and North Carolina, fighting for those last few swing voters. So here on Code Switch, we try to understand how all sorts of people were going to vote.

00:00:59 Speaker_09
Arab Americans in Dearborn, Michigan. This community has never been a one issue kind of community, one issue vote. But I heard actually someone say, if I'm going to become a one issue voter and that issue is genocide, I'm OK with it.

00:01:15 Speaker_00
My stance is and continues to be that it is no longer a question of how can you win me back. It is a question of how can I hold you accountable for the lives lost.

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Young black men who have been sucked into the manosphere.

00:01:29 Speaker_06
Men of this generation are looking at their grandfathers and really their grandfathers looking at them and saying, what's the problem with you? When I was your age, I had a car, a wife. I was supporting my family. What's the problem with you?

00:01:41 Speaker_06
You're sleeping on a twin bed in your mother's basement, right?

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These are men who instead of saying, oh, that generation was unfairly floated and really had no competition and were given all these handouts by the government, they're saying, well, the problem must be women.

00:01:57 Speaker_07
Latinx voters who found their sympathies aligning with the policies of the far right.

00:02:02 Speaker_15
We're staring at a Latino voting bloc that is so fundamentally different from what it was 30 years ago, right? I mean, right now we're staring at a voting bloc where third generation Latinos are the fastest growing segment within Latinos.

00:02:13 Speaker_15
And so you're staring at a bloc that now feels the permission to sort of speak and act and be whomever they want to be. That at times aligns more with white America than with sort of our idea of brown America.

00:02:30 Speaker_07
All the votes have been cast. So what happens now?

00:02:34 Speaker_07
There's so much to unpack, and that's what we're going to be doing over the next weeks and months, looking at how the results of the election are going to affect the lives of people all over the country, and really, all over the world.

00:02:47 Speaker_07
So stay tuned on the show.

00:02:49 Speaker_07
We'll be interviewing experts, asking some hard questions, and traveling around the country trying to identify the people and places that will be most affected by the policies of this new, but in some ways not so new, administration.

00:03:04 Speaker_07
That's all coming up.

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00:04:34 Speaker_14
And thank you.

00:04:37 Speaker_07
But right now, as we take in the news, we thought, who better to turn the mic over to than the host of NPR's political podcast? They've got the most up-to-date analysis on what to make of the 2024 election and what to expect in the next few days.

00:04:52 Speaker_07
So without further ado, we're going to turn it over to our friends on the politics team.

00:04:57 Speaker_08
Hey, this is Ebony Tower from Rat City Roller Derby in Seattle, Washington, and I just got back from watching the Global Championships of Roller Derby in Portland, Oregon. This podcast was recorded at 12.08 p.m.

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on Wednesday, November 6th.

00:05:13 Speaker_08
Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I'll still be celebrating Rose City taking home the Hydra. Okay, here's the show.

00:05:25 Speaker_04
Hey, congratulations. The Hydra. Congratulations. I don't know what that is, but it sounds like a fancy trophy. I'm being told in my ear it's a trophy, so that's correct.

00:05:33 Speaker_12
I feel like I've been in a roller derby, just the lack of sleep that we've all been having the last few days.

00:05:38 Speaker_05
I was going to say, there's a roller derby joke to make, but my brain is a little too tired to make it. So hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

00:05:47 Speaker_12
I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the campaign.

00:05:49 Speaker_05
I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And just after 530 Eastern Time this morning, the Associated Press officially called the race for former President Donald Trump.

00:05:59 Speaker_05
He defeated Vice President Kamala Harris by busting the blue wall states. with wins in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. As we tape this, calls have not yet been made in Michigan, Arizona, or Nevada. But at this point, those are just details.

00:06:12 Speaker_05
Franco, you are in Florida with the Trump campaign. You also haven't had a wink of sleep. So thank you for joining us. In like two days. You've been doing the work. But I'll start here. This wasn't just a Trump victory.

00:06:22 Speaker_05
This was a Trump whooping all over America.

00:06:25 Speaker_12
Yeah, I mean, those details speak to that whooping. I mean, this was this was a big win. Polls showed us that this was supposed to be a photo finish. It was supposed to be a coin flip. It was supposed to be one of the closest races in modern history.

00:06:41 Speaker_12
Instead, it was the biggest win for Republicans since 2004, when George W. Bush won the popular vote, and Trump looks like he is on the way to win the popular vote. He came out yesterday saying that he had a mandate.

00:06:58 Speaker_12
He pointed to all the flipped Senate races, and he said he was, you know, gonna do his thing. He said God saved him so he could save the country.

00:07:08 Speaker_05
Let's talk about mandate more. Trump campaigned on a lot of clear and sometimes provocative policy ideas, and he intends to make good on them. Let's start in the short term. What should people be looking for?

00:07:19 Speaker_12
Yeah, I mean, Trump's talked about this. He's talked about his first day. He's talked about his first few hours, which he said he would use to close the border. He's also said he would start drilling.

00:07:29 Speaker_12
Of course, his famous line, drill, baby, drill, which is he promises to gut Biden's climate subsidies and resume an energy exploration and the issues with energy as perhaps the biggest driver of inflation and therefore drilling to be the biggest thing to help address inflation.

00:07:48 Speaker_12
He's made it very, very clear that his main goal is to unwind President Biden's policies and basically reserve where he left off after his first term in office.

00:08:00 Speaker_12
And I'll just add on the foreign policy front, you can expect him to start waiving that threat of his favorite word, tariffs, against adversaries and frankly, also against allies And he's also promised to end the wars in Ukraine and Middle East.

00:08:14 Speaker_12
He said he could end the fighting in Ukraine, actually, before he even took office.

00:08:18 Speaker_02
I mean, his Republican allies on the Hill have already been talking about an aggressive 100-day agenda. Right out of the gate, the Senate Republican majority is going to want to confirm Trump's cabinet picks.

00:08:29 Speaker_02
He's going to have the votes to get them through. Maybe on day one. Exactly. He could do them the first week in January.

00:08:38 Speaker_02
And as Franco was talking about energy and regulations, House Speaker Mike Johnson has been saying on the trail for weeks, we're going to take a blowtorch to the regulatory state. We're going to get rid of the Biden-Harris regulatory regime.

00:08:55 Speaker_02
And Senate Republicans, House Republicans are keenly focused on renewing Trump's 2017 tax cuts. adding additional tax cuts that Trump has campaigned on. And that's something they want to get done really quickly.

00:09:09 Speaker_03
He promised mass deportations. He has promised a lot of things. It's not clear how quickly all of those things can happen, but trying to unwind some of the Biden era policies. is seems like a place where they could certainly start.

00:09:24 Speaker_05
Tim, to me, there's two stories out of this. On the one hand, this is a story of MAGA dominance all over the country. But last night saw what I think is fair to call a collapse of the Democratic Party coalition.

00:09:36 Speaker_05
Not only did Harris not yet win a single contested state, but even in reliably blue states like New York and New Jersey, she dramatically was underperforming Biden's performance in 2020.

00:09:48 Speaker_03
So if you look at there are these maps out there that show what direction counties moved. And basically it's all a bunch of red arrows to the right all over America all over the country.

00:09:59 Speaker_03
And you know there there are a lot of things going on here and we will be analyzing this forever. Certainly you saw among core groups that have been part of the Democratic coalition, a softening of support.

00:10:12 Speaker_03
You saw Harris simply just not perform as well as Biden did in a lot of places. Let's think about what has happened in the country in the last 10, 15 years. You had the Obama era. You had the Great Recession. You had COVID.

00:10:30 Speaker_03
And there's been sort of this back and forth in American politics, this sort of whiplash. It is a relatively narrowly divided country, maybe not as narrowly divided as we thought. But there is just this

00:10:45 Speaker_03
tug and the country has sort of been swinging back and forth. And if you look around the world, that has also happened. There has been massive backlash to the incumbent party all over the world in elections that have been happening.

00:11:00 Speaker_03
And Harris tried to have the mantle of the change candidate, but she also never separated herself from President Biden. She could never explain what she was going to do differently or what she would have done differently. And in the face of that,

00:11:14 Speaker_03
People voted for change.

00:11:17 Speaker_05
Deidre, this was also a resounding victory so far for Republicans down the ballot. Republicans have taken the Senate. They're guaranteed at least a 52 seat majority that could climb as high as 54, 55. There's about five races still not called.

00:11:31 Speaker_05
One thing I think is important to think of in the context here is this is a different Republican Party than when Donald Trump won in 2017.

00:11:38 Speaker_02
So different. I mean, you think about the incoming class of Senate Republicans, you know, Montana Senator-elect Tim Sheehy, Ohio Senator-elect Bernie Marino. These are candidates that were recruited in conjunction with Trump.

00:11:56 Speaker_02
Steve Daines, the head of the Senate Republicans campaign arm, made a strategy to focus on coordinating closely with Trump to avoid the mistakes of the last cycle when some of Trump's endorsed candidates weren't so much vetted and fell short.

00:12:17 Speaker_02
We expected Republicans to take control of the Senate, but they did better, I think, than a lot of people expected. In a lot of these blue wall states, I mean, some of these races were still waiting to be called.

00:12:32 Speaker_02
But I think with this 54, maybe 55 seat majority, they have a cushion. They have the votes to get Trump's picks confirmed for his cabinet, for

00:12:43 Speaker_02
the federal judiciary, potentially for the Supreme Court, they could lose a couple of moderates on nominees and still get the things through.

00:12:51 Speaker_05
The control of the House is still not called by the Associated Press, which is what NPR goes by.

00:12:55 Speaker_05
But nonpartisan election forecasters like the Cook Political Report see a path where Republicans are in good pace to keep a very narrow Republican majority, which means Republicans could have the trifecta, White House, Senate, House, and let's not forget a 6-3 conservative lean for the Supreme Court.

00:13:11 Speaker_05
Donald Trump will be entering office in an incredibly powerful starting position.

00:13:16 Speaker_02
Right. And Republican leaders in the House are all very confident that they're going to hang on to their very narrow majority. It's not going to be significantly different than the majority they currently have.

00:13:29 Speaker_02
But the difference is obviously night and day with the balance of power with partners in the Senate and a partner in the White House.

00:13:36 Speaker_02
They feel like they have a mandate now based on these election results to push through some pretty aggressive policies. I mean, they feel like the country wants a strong border security bill. There isn't going to be any feeling like they have to.

00:13:51 Speaker_02
broker any sort of bipartisan kind of compromise the way they did a few months ago. And, you know, Trump killed that. And that kind of thing is just not on the table anymore.

00:14:03 Speaker_02
So I think you're going to see a whole series of conservative policies being pushed through the House and Senate, you know,

00:14:12 Speaker_02
narrow margins, we should remember there's always a chance that you have a couple of members who don't want to play along with the team. But I think there is going to be a massive incentive for the party to sort of stay on the same page.

00:14:25 Speaker_03
the makeup of Congress, the moderates, the people who were concerned by Trump, the people who voted for impeachment, those people are gone. They either lost their races or they left.

00:14:39 Speaker_03
And so this is Trump's Republican Party far more than it was in 2017.

00:14:44 Speaker_05
I mean, Franco, Trump at this point just seems like an almost unstoppable force in American politics. He also

00:14:51 Speaker_05
in 2025 will enter the White House better prepared, more experienced, a very clear agenda he wants to execute, which was very different than he entered in 2017. And frankly, a lot of axes to grind.

00:15:03 Speaker_05
And in terms of velocity, I think the country should be prepared for a pretty intense beginning of the new administration. Do you think that's fair to say?

00:15:12 Speaker_12
I think that is fair to say. I mean, he's come in with many promises. And of course, he's not the first president-elect to make big commitments. But he has something else.

00:15:24 Speaker_12
I mean, he also has four years of experience of knowing how to do these things, many very controversial things. Let's just talk about one, the travel ban. It took him about two years to kind of figure out.

00:15:40 Speaker_12
how to do the travel ban, fought it in the Supreme Court, it went back and forth, they tweaked it this way, they tweaked it that way, they added some countries, they took some countries back, but in the end he had a travel ban that blocked residents from Muslim-majority countries to come into the United States.

00:15:59 Speaker_12
It's that kind of experience that he now has. Of course, there are limitations, though, as well to immigration. Tam was talking about immigration and the mass deportation policy that he's promised.

00:16:11 Speaker_12
Well, there are real operational challenges to do that, political challenges to carry out that kind of thing. I question whether the American public would really stand for such a thing, but the practicality

00:16:23 Speaker_12
You just would need, it would just cost so much to build the manpower to do that.

00:16:29 Speaker_12
You would have to, and the rules and laws that you would have to change in order to get, to extend military power, to extend police force power, to kind of carry that out. And I'll just add one more thing.

00:16:42 Speaker_12
You know, we've talked about how the guardrails are off this time. When he goes into office, he won't have some of the kind of more moderate, established people on his staff, and he's going to have more of his own people there.

00:16:55 Speaker_12
Well, he's not the only one who's going to be prepared for this. You know, you have groups like the American Immigration Council, the ACLU, and others who are taking steps to kind of prepare for this second administration.

00:17:08 Speaker_12
And you can expect that those civil rights groups are going to be ready and have their legal pens out and ready to go to the courts as soon as they can.

00:17:20 Speaker_01
OK, let's take a quick break. We have a lot more to say when we get back. This message comes from NPR sponsor Shopify, the global commerce platform that helps you sell and show up exactly the way you want to. Customize your online store to your style.

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00:18:12 Speaker_10
This is Eric Glass. On This American Life, we specialize in compelling stories from everyday life.

00:18:17 Speaker_13
I was like, wow, you literally just died and came back. And the first thing you ask is, do you need any money?

00:18:26 Speaker_10
Your Life Stories, really good ones, in your podcast feed, This American Life.

00:18:37 Speaker_05
And we're back. And, Tam, I think we need to dig in a little bit more to what happened in the Democratic Party and the coalition last night.

00:18:44 Speaker_05
Just one of many data points that I think Democrats are going to find staggering is that according to the exit poll data that we have now, which could, of course, still change, Kamala Harris performed worse with women

00:18:55 Speaker_05
than either Hillary Clinton did in 2016 or Joe Biden did in 2020, which I think Democrats will find staggering considering how much they focused on women in this campaign and how much they thought the debate around abortion rights would result in the largest gender gap potentially in our lifetimes.

00:19:10 Speaker_05
And that didn't bear out.

00:19:11 Speaker_03
Right. And the Harris campaign also spent a huge amount of time focused on the suburbs, focused on college-educated white women, focused on

00:19:21 Speaker_03
trying to persuade squishy Republicans to come to her to sort of make up for deficiencies in other parts of the traditional Democratic base. And in the end, it just didn't happen.

00:19:33 Speaker_03
In the end, Harris didn't perform any better in the suburbs, didn't perform any better with women. And the reality is there are a lot of women Likely.

00:19:43 Speaker_03
There are a lot of women who went into the polling booth and in many states voted in favor of expanded abortion access and also Donald Trump.

00:19:52 Speaker_05
This is to me what has to be the siren for Democrats is that a lot of voters have clearly cleaved that issue in their mind that they can support abortion rights and vote for Republicans.

00:20:01 Speaker_05
And for Democrats, that has to be an absolute panic moment in politics.

00:20:05 Speaker_02
I mean, they clearly underestimated the massive unhappiness about the economy. And I think that you see that across demographic groups and clearly among women. I mean, the issue of abortion was sort of the issue they kept saying over and over.

00:20:20 Speaker_02
All the Democrats that you talked to going into this election in House races and Senate races, that's the issue that's gonna bring out women. The gender gap is gonna bring us over the top.

00:20:31 Speaker_02
I talked to people when I was out on the trail and people were sort of like, inflation is really high. And I would ask candidates like, Are people talking to you about abortion? They're like, we're also going to address high costs.

00:20:42 Speaker_02
That's also on our agenda. But it was not the top emphasis, at least in some of the races I saw.

00:20:48 Speaker_05
LESLIE KENDRICK Franco, another group that I think, and there's a lot of demographic groups that are worth talking about, but another one that I do think we have to highlight because it was one of the biggest swings between 2020 and 2024.

00:20:58 Speaker_05
And you flagged this early in the campaign. Latino men, they broke for Biden in 2020 and they swung big towards Trump in 2024.

00:21:07 Speaker_12
Yeah, specifically the Latino men swinging big was really eye-catching.

00:21:13 Speaker_12
I mean, we talk a lot about the rhetoric against immigration, largely Latino immigrants, Latino migrants, but it's clear that Republicans have been making inroads with Latino voters, many of whom want a stronger

00:21:29 Speaker_12
border for many of the same reasons many Americans do. They feel competition for jobs. They're concerned about security.

00:21:37 Speaker_12
And I would say that even though this, the talk angers and rubs a lot of people the wrong way and makes people vote Democrat, they still voted Democrat in very, very, very large numbers. Let's be very clear about that.

00:21:51 Speaker_12
But a good number of Latinos just see that kind of rhetoric as more bluster, more bark than bite. I say a lot that Latinos are not a monolith.

00:22:02 Speaker_12
So much depends on where they migrated from, what kind of income they have, what kind of education level they have. Another really big factor is kind of not only when they arrived, but what generation American are there?

00:22:15 Speaker_12
That was something that the Trump team told me that they really dialed into.

00:22:20 Speaker_12
And they found in their numbers, especially in key states, battleground states like Nevada and Arizona, that a good number of the Latinos were second and third generation Latinos.

00:22:31 Speaker_12
Therefore, they saw them voting largely along the same lines as every other American.

00:22:38 Speaker_05
One thing that has been striking to me as we tape this around 1230 on Wednesday afternoon is the silence coming from the Democratic Party.

00:22:45 Speaker_05
Kamala Harris is scheduled to speak later tonight, but she has not yet spoken, even though the race has been called. Haven't heard much, correct me if I'm wrong, Deirdre, from Senate Leader Chuck Schumer, House Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

00:22:54 Speaker_05
I mean, this, the recriminations game begins now for the Democratic Party. I think I would just ask sort of what do you, who are you watching for here? What are you watching for?

00:23:03 Speaker_05
I mean, the Democratic Party has a lot of soul searching to do coming out of this election.

00:23:07 Speaker_02
I feel like it's just sort of a funeral atmosphere that we're seeing from sources. They're tired. They're deflated. They're shocked and stunned. I think what I'm looking for is what's going to come out of it.

00:23:20 Speaker_02
I mean, are they really going to shake up their message? I mean, I've covered a lot of presidential election, congressional elections, and Democrats at all these events were the party of the working class, were the party of the middle class.

00:23:32 Speaker_02
They got wiped out. and what is their message to what they think was the sort of backbone of their own party. Is that even their party anymore?

00:23:43 Speaker_02
And I think the other big question is sort of who are the next generation of leaders if there are going to be sort of new messengers for the party?

00:23:52 Speaker_02
And I wonder if there are people from, you know, the Midwestern states, other states, sort of like not typical Washington politicians from the House or the Senate, you know, that can show something different than what came out of Washington.

00:24:06 Speaker_03
I think what little we are seeing is Democrats coming at this with their priors. So people say, oh, well, we shouldn't have listened to the left. We shouldn't have kowtowed to the progressive left, and that's why.

00:24:20 Speaker_03
Or it's, well, we shouldn't have been trying to recruit the Liz Cheney's of the world. We shouldn't have moderated as much what people really need as a progressive agenda. I don't know where this lands.

00:24:29 Speaker_03
Usually it is the presidential nominee that determines where the party is. So it could be a few years before Democrats truly figure this out. But there has to be some kind of reckoning because this was a great big loss.

00:24:45 Speaker_05
Franco, we've said this a million different ways in this podcast, I think now over the last eight years. But Donald Trump has really rewritten the roles of American politics just in this victory alone.

00:24:55 Speaker_05
He proved that you can run a base focused national campaign and still win. He proved that you don't need to run a traditional structured RNC driven ground game operation to win.

00:25:06 Speaker_05
He also defied the maximum politics that the candidate that is generally more popular almost always wins. Kamala Harris had a higher net favorability rating in this campaign.

00:25:15 Speaker_05
I think there's a lesson for all of us here that we sort of have to forget all the rules and start over from now.

00:25:22 Speaker_12
Yeah, don't forget the first convicted felon to take the White House. I mean, this is kind of the most stunning political comeback.

00:25:31 Speaker_12
Ever and you know just speaking to what Deidre and Tam were saying I mean, it's you know, something that Democrats are going to be wrestling with for a long time I mean he was able to tap into something so profound that Americans were oh, you know willing to overlook all those things you're talking about all the scandals all the criminal indictments, you know overlook the you know stoking of January 6 that you know created the attack on the Capitol I

00:25:59 Speaker_12
I mean, it's a time that I think we're all going to be studying for quite a while, really.

00:26:07 Speaker_05
And I'm sure we're going to have a lot more to say about that on the pod soon, but that is it for us today. Thank you all for the last 24 hours and the last couple of years. It's been quite a ride. We'll be back in your feeds tomorrow. I'm Susan Davis.

00:26:19 Speaker_05
I cover politics.

00:26:21 Speaker_12
I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the campaign.

00:26:23 Speaker_05
I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House. And I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

00:26:35 Speaker_11
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