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Episode: What happened to sweater weather?

Author: Marketplace
Duration: 00:25:27

Episode Shownotes

Clothing retailers were foiled by unpredictable weather this fall: October was the second warmest on record, and now stores are sitting on a lot of extra cold-weather inventory. What will they do about it? Plus: Comcast spins off most of its cable network channels, a violin maker talks tariffs, and

an author tells us about “The Nvidia Way,” the chip designer’s unique workplace culture.

Summary

In this episode of Marketplace, host Kai Ryssdal discusses the impact of unusually warm October weather on clothing retailers, resulting in a surplus of cold-weather inventory. This challenge comes in tandem with insights into NVIDIA's transformation under CEO Jensen Huang, who fosters a high-performance work culture critical to its success. Additionally, the episode touches on the implications of tariffs for small businesses, particularly in the violin industry, and the Federal Reserve's monitoring of inflation expectations as consumers express a desire for price stability amidst economic uncertainty.

Go to PodExtra AI's episode page (What happened to sweater weather?) to play and view complete AI-processed content: summary, mindmap, topics, takeaways, transcript, keywords and highlights.

Full Transcript

00:00:00 Speaker_03
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00:01:05 Speaker_08
Computer chips, gang. AI computer chips in particular. That is where the money is. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Risdell. It is Wednesday, today, the 20th of November.

00:01:31 Speaker_08
Good as always to have you along, everybody. We begin today with a question that is going to sound ridiculous on its face, but we here go where the news takes us.

00:01:43 Speaker_08
When, the question goes, is $35 billion worth of revenue in three very short months not good enough? For most companies, the answer to that question would be never. It is never not good enough to bring in $35 billion in a quarter.

00:02:02 Speaker_08
But when you're NVIDIA, the stratospheric chip design company, the $35 billion revenue you announced after the close today, Well, I'm sorry, it's just not gonna cut it.

00:02:11 Speaker_08
NVIDIA, of course, the market leader in designing AI chips, all under the very watchful eye of co-founder and CEO, Jensen Huang. Huang and his company are the subjects of an upcoming, and it must be said, very timely new book by Tay Kim.

00:02:26 Speaker_08
It's called, The NVIDIA Way, Jensen Huang and the Making of a Tech Giant. Tay, it's good to have you on.

00:02:33 Speaker_02
Good to be here, Kai.

00:02:33 Speaker_08
For those who haven't been paying attention, it does sort of seem like NVIDIA just kind of came out of nowhere when AI started getting big. Where did this company come from?

00:02:45 Speaker_02
It started about 30 years ago. They started making video game graphics chips for PC gamers. And it was started by three co-founders, Jensen Huang, Chris Malekowski, and Curtis Prim.

00:02:56 Speaker_02
And it's just one of the most amazing kind of entrepreneurial success stories of our time.

00:03:01 Speaker_08
This is gonna sound like a very basic question, but what do they make, or what do they do?

00:03:06 Speaker_02
They're actually a chip designer.

00:03:08 Speaker_02
Taiwan Semiconductor actually makes the chips, but they design chips that go into gaming computers, and now they make these AI processors that go into these massive server farms that power all the AI workloads for training and inference today.

00:03:23 Speaker_08
What is their edge in designing these chips? What is the secret sauce? Other than, I suppose, being the first mover, right?

00:03:31 Speaker_02
They've been doing this for 30 years and they've always been on the forefront of technology and always kind of looking ahead on what's next. And the thing that really drives it is Jensen Huang's technical acronym.

00:03:42 Speaker_02
He always kind of sees where the market's gonna go before it happens. And I say it's similar to what Reed Hastings did with Netflix.

00:03:52 Speaker_02
Like he had this intuitive sense that internet video streaming was the way it's gonna happen, but he kind of stuck around and did the DVD by mail. And as the technology got better, he jumped on it.

00:04:03 Speaker_02
And NVIDIA has done that time and time again with video game graphics chips, this thing called CUDA, which is the foundation of how they've kind of dominated this AI wave. And they keep doing it every single time.

00:04:16 Speaker_02
So it's just an amazing, incredible story.

00:04:19 Speaker_08
What is, just to the title of this book, what is the NVIDIA way?

00:04:24 Speaker_02
So NVIDIA Way is something I came up with as I was doing research on the book. I started this in May of 2023. I got this cold email from a publisher. One of his authors recommended me to write the book.

00:04:39 Speaker_02
And I was kind of stunned that no one has written the book on NVIDIA before, because every other big internet company has like five or six books on it. So I looked into it. I said, oh, I would love this opportunity.

00:04:51 Speaker_02
We got a book deal done within a few weeks. And I started interviewing NVIDIA employees. And the first thing, maybe after a half dozen calls, I found the defining characteristic wasn't the technology or innovation.

00:05:04 Speaker_02
It was this unique work culture that Jensen Huang and his co-founders built up. And it's about velocity and speed and being very blunt and direct.

00:05:15 Speaker_02
And all these employees, when they went to other companies like Google, Microsoft, and Apple, they were like, oh, my gosh, I can't work like this anymore.

00:05:23 Speaker_02
They got used to this Nvidia culture that was just so much faster, more decisive, and didn't have any of the kind of problems you have with internal politics.

00:05:35 Speaker_08
I will say it does sound a tad brutal. I mean, you're working, you know, even at an entry-level gig, you're working 60-hour weeks.

00:05:41 Speaker_08
Jensen Huang apparently knows the name of, like, everybody walking down the hallway and has no hesitation about jumping in and questioning things or making sure that they are in line with his vision.

00:05:54 Speaker_02
Yes. Work ethic and long hours are part of the video culture. I was talking to this marketing person in the early years, and he said that, you know, there are like sleeping bags in the office.

00:06:06 Speaker_02
And one day, he decided to go – this is Titanic, you know, back in the late 90s. He said, I'm going to go out to see Titanic with my wife. He left at the office at 9.30, and one of his colleagues joked, Oh, is this a half day, Andy?"

00:06:20 Speaker_02
And so, that was the mentality that people stay there super late. And I think I asked around today, and people still work like crazy hours today.

00:06:30 Speaker_02
I think part of that is like they want to do their best, work really hard, and it also comes from the top with Jensen. He considers work relaxing and fun.

00:06:41 Speaker_02
One of the things he does, he loves doing emails on Sunday night with his favorite Highland Scotch whiskey. And that's what he enjoys.

00:06:49 Speaker_08
What could possibly go wrong?

00:06:51 Speaker_02
The CEO of a company having a whiskey or two and sending emails. Yes, that's what he does on Sunday evenings, I heard.

00:06:57 Speaker_08
And yet they retain people at some remarkable rate, as you point out in this book.

00:07:03 Speaker_02
Yeah, I mean, 18 players attract 18 players and winning begets winning, right? So no one wants to work four years on the chip project and then have it fail in the marketplace. And NVIDIA has this track record of success. And the money isn't bad either.

00:07:17 Speaker_02
I mean, we're talking about an extraordinary outcome. They're literally the best performing stock in US history with a company with 20 years of returns. I think the turnover is less than 3% in an industry that has like 15% turnover on average.

00:07:32 Speaker_08
It sounds vaguely Steve Jobs-ian, right? Jobs always said, you know, A-grade people want to work with A-grade people and we're not going to hire C people and all of that stuff, right?

00:07:42 Speaker_02
It's almost very similar. There's really great corollaries. I mean, in the same way he's very tough on people like Steve Jobs was tough on people. There's this one story about the Tegra 3, which was this chip for automobiles and small internet devices.

00:07:59 Speaker_02
And the guy that was in charge of the project was late. And there was this company-wide meeting, and he made the person in charge of the camera zero in on his face multiple times in the meeting and say, you really need to finish this, right?

00:08:13 Speaker_02
You need to get this trip back on schedule. And just would repeatedly kind of dress him down, humiliate him in front of everyone. And part of that is he thinks that's how you learn.

00:08:24 Speaker_02
All these other companies where people coddle executives and do one-on-ones on the side so you don't embarrass the person. He wants to embarrass the person so everyone learns not to make that mistake. And that's what you're dealing with.

00:08:37 Speaker_02
He has very high expectations and he keeps people accountable.

00:08:42 Speaker_08
We should say here, it has not always been sunshine and light for this company.

00:08:47 Speaker_08
And at various points, as you detail in this book, he has said, and company all staffs, we're 30 days from going out of business, which is a peculiar way to motivate people.

00:08:57 Speaker_02
I think he's very worried about becoming complacent as a company. He's a student of technology industry where all the top companies eventually get disrupted. So he wants to instill that kind of fear and paranoia about being complacent.

00:09:14 Speaker_02
And he did that almost like the first 10 years. Every company meeting, which was held about monthly, he would say, we're 30 days from going out of business. And part of that was sometimes it was true.

00:09:27 Speaker_02
Some executives told me in 1998 and their first two chips, it was true. But it's also to instill that, you know, we never can rest on our laurels. We really have to move fast and move forward as much as possible.

00:09:41 Speaker_08
He is, you point out, the longest tenured Silicon Valley founder and CEO. He has now, you know, all you have to do is read the headlines. He is at the apex of his company's power. Clearly, he's going to stick around for a while, right?

00:09:57 Speaker_02
He, I mean, every major conference that he does talks at and speaks at, he has this annual conference called GTC every year, and he says, there's nothing else I want to do.

00:10:11 Speaker_02
He considers all the employees his family, and he repeatedly says, I love NVIDIA. This is the love of his life, it's his company.

00:10:20 Speaker_08
It's a book called The Nvidia Way, Jensen Huang and the Making of a Tech Giant. It drops on the 10th of December. Take him at Barron's Road. Tay, thanks a lot. I really appreciate your time. Interesting book. Thanks, Skye. Thanks for having me.

00:11:18 Speaker_08
The weather this fall has been somewhat less than entirely autumnal. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says last month's average temperature in the lower 48 was 59 degrees.

00:11:31 Speaker_08
Cool in some places, perhaps, but it's almost 5 degrees above average, which makes last month the second warmest October. September was warmer than usual too. And all that temperate weather has been affecting what consumers are buying and not buying.

00:11:47 Speaker_08
On its earnings call this morning, Target said that apparel sales were down about 1% for the quarter, thanks in part to the temperature. Marketplace's Stephanie Hughes looks at what retailers do when it seems like winter's not coming.

00:12:00 Speaker_09
When the weather can be described as balmy, you don't really feel like buying something woolen. It's not appealing, you're not even thinking of it. Katie Thomas studies consumer behavior at the consulting firm Carney.

00:12:11 Speaker_09
She says a lot of retailers have had a hard time moving coats and sweaters this fall and expects they'll end up discounting them.

00:12:18 Speaker_09
She also says with a climate that's warming up, it's time for the retail industry to have a good long think about what it sells and when.

00:12:26 Speaker_10
You know, I think we tend to just do a little bit of the status quo, which is, oh, it's the fall season. It's the fall assortment. We need to have sweaters in it.

00:12:34 Speaker_09
Thomas is also having some conversations that border on the existential. Like, in the future, will we need winter scarves at all?

00:12:41 Speaker_10
And if we do, what will they be like? Do they somehow look different? Is it that they're not quite so oversized? Are there other ways that you think about what a scarf could be?

00:12:53 Speaker_09
But with climate change, it can be really hard to know what's coming. Sonja Lipinski is with Alex Partners.

00:12:59 Speaker_01
We could have a blizzard next year on October 1st. We have no idea right now.

00:13:04 Speaker_09
Lipinski says to plan for a potential blizzard or potential balminess, retailers should take a cue from the fast fashion industry and develop more flexible production schedules.

00:13:14 Speaker_01
Where they can order very small batches, get it into stores and kind of test it before they commit to a really large production run where they're going to be sitting on a lot of inventory.

00:13:26 Speaker_09
There are certain retailers benefiting from the warmer weather. The Charmory makes ice cream and sells it at six stores in Baltimore and D.C. Owner David Alima says sales are up 7 percent so far this year from 2023.

00:13:39 Speaker_11
So to see a line out the door in September, in October, it's just it's the best.

00:13:46 Speaker_09
Alima says one thing that's been a little strange is selling what he calls hoodie weather flavors, like spiced pumpkin, sorry Kai, and apple butter, when the temperature only calls for a t-shirt.

00:13:57 Speaker_09
But he doesn't mind, and he doesn't think customers do either. I'm Stephanie Hughes for Marketplace.

00:14:24 Speaker_08
there is another ratchet today in the changing gears of the television and streaming economy comcast said it's gonna spin off most of its cable channels msnbc cnbc oxygen e that's the one of the exclamation point the gulf channel to they're all going into a separate company

00:14:41 Speaker_08
Comcast is going to hang on to NBC News, Sports Telemundo, and Bravo, as well as Peacock, its streaming service. Also, the company's film and TV studios and theme parks. Marketplace is about the fields.

00:14:52 Speaker_08
It has more now on the split and what it tells us about what we watch.

00:14:56 Speaker_00
This is a story about the rise of streaming and the fall of cable and how big media companies are still trying to figure out what to do with that shift.

00:15:04 Speaker_00
Just 10 years ago, Paul Verna at research firm eMarketer says his company found there were four times as many households that paid for cable than households that didn't.

00:15:14 Speaker_06
By next year, those numbers will actually cross and there will be more households in the U.S. that do not subscribe to pay TV than ones that do. So that's like a massive shift.

00:15:25 Speaker_00
And he says that's what's driving this move by Comcast.

00:15:28 Speaker_06
Companies that have these cable networks, they just really don't know what to do with them.

00:15:33 Speaker_00
Comcast is going with a spinoff company. Why not just sell its cable channels?

00:15:38 Speaker_04
I think there's probably a lack of buyers.

00:15:40 Speaker_00
Frank Lowthen at Raymond James says cable is still making money, but less than it used to.

00:15:46 Speaker_04
The old model where you bundle in a significant number of cable networks is going to see its end of days at some point.

00:15:53 Speaker_00
But he says it's a different calculus for Comcast with NBC's broadcast networks and Bravo. They have a lot of valuable shows that people want to stream. Real Housewives, Top Chef, Law and Order, the Olympics, other live sports.

00:16:06 Speaker_04
That's a lot of content that they can get to put on Peacock. And it's highly valued content, which is really important, which gets them more subscribers.

00:16:14 Speaker_00
And these days, Gregory Stoller at Boston University's Questrom School of Business says companies have to work harder than ever to attract and keep subscribers because?

00:16:23 Speaker_11
consumers have more choices than ever.

00:16:26 Speaker_00
Instead of spending a couple hundred dollars a month on cable for a few channels they want and hundreds they don't, he says people can spend the same or less on streaming and get more of what they want.

00:16:36 Speaker_00
Paul Verna at eMarketer says everyone realizes that's the future, even though so far it hasn't been easy for companies to monetize streaming.

00:16:44 Speaker_06
To the extent that they did with their cable networks when those were in their prime. But those challenges will eventually be worked out.

00:16:54 Speaker_00
And he says companies are following the audiences where they're going, over to streaming. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

00:17:21 Speaker_13
Coming up. I enjoy seeing people really joyful of having found their their forever instrument. Music to my ears.

00:17:30 Speaker_08
But first, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials up 139 points today, a third of 1%, 43,408. The Nasdaq off 21 points, about a tenth percent. Ended things at 18,966. The S&P 500 basically flat 59 and 17. Williams-Sonoma jumped more than 27% today.

00:17:52 Speaker_08
The home furnishings chain beat expectations on third quarter earnings and revenue. Target slump 21.4% after sliding sluggish demand caught out, as Stephanie Hughes was just telling us, by warmer weather. Smithfields was telling us about Comcast.

00:18:06 Speaker_08
That stock brightened 1.6%. Today, other streamers, Netflix up 1.4%. The Walt Disney Company picked up 1.2%. Bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note up 4.41%. You're listening to Marketplace.

00:18:23 Speaker_03
When you think about businesses growing their sales beyond forecasts, sure, you think about a product with demand, a focused brand, and influence-driven marketing.

00:18:31 Speaker_03
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00:18:42 Speaker_03
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00:18:56 Speaker_03
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00:19:10 Speaker_03
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00:19:26 Speaker_03
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00:19:50 Speaker_03
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00:19:58 Speaker_03
Visit public.com slash disclosures slash bond dash account for more info. Dell Technologies' Cyber Monday event is live, and if you've been waiting for an AI-ready PC, this is their biggest sale of the year.

00:20:09 Speaker_03
Tech enthusiasts love this sale because it's all the newest hits, plus all the greatest hits, all on sale at once. Savings on Dell Technologies' most popular PCs that accelerate AI with Intel Core Ultra processors are here, like the XPS 16.

00:20:25 Speaker_03
So, if you're ready to step up all the things you like to do, streaming, surfing, multitasking, whatever, Dell Technologies' AI-ready PCs are the perfect upgrade.

00:20:35 Speaker_03
And for the best of Intel Core Ultra processors, look for Intel Evo Edition laptops, engineered to do it all. Just visit dell.com slash deals.

00:20:45 Speaker_03
Whether you're treating yourself or thinking of others, these Cyber Monday prices were worth the wait, but it's only here for a limited time. Shop now at dell.com slash deals.

00:20:59 Speaker_08
This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Risdahl. Inflation. Lower though it may be, it is still not quite where the Federal Reserve wants it to be. And the central bank is reading all the economic tea leaves it can to figure out what to do with interest rates.

00:21:17 Speaker_08
We got the Atlanta Fed's survey of business inflation expectations over the next year this morning. It held steady at 2.2% in November, same as a month ago. The Consumer Price Index, by way of comparison, 2.6% over the past year.

00:21:33 Speaker_08
Fed Chair Jay Powell and his colleagues talk a lot about how determined they are to get inflation down to their target of, as we all know, 2%. And they say also that this last mile is going to be bumpy.

00:21:46 Speaker_08
Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has more now on how inflation expectations might wind up affecting that bumpy path.

00:21:53 Speaker_05
Americans' inflation expectations certainly do seem to be well anchored, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a recent speech. Consumers predict prices will rise 2.9 percent over the next year, according to the New York Fed.

00:22:07 Speaker_05
Businesses expect inflation to be 2.2 percent overall, though they predict they'll raise their own prices for customers by 3 percent. And Bernard Baumol at the Economic Outlook Group sees warning signs on the horizon.

00:22:20 Speaker_07
Just keep an eye on inflation expectations. That could very well be one of the surprises for the next couple of months.

00:22:26 Speaker_05
Looking at current inflation rates, the Fed is right to be planning further interest rate cuts, says Brian Rayling at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

00:22:35 Speaker_05
But looking forward, he says investors are less confident inflation will keep falling and the Fed will keep cutting.

00:22:41 Speaker_12
The market sees some of the policies that may be implemented with the new administration and concern starts. Some of those policies may eventually lead to inflation down the road.

00:22:53 Speaker_05
Specifically, President-elect Trump has pledged steep new tariffs on imports, mass deportations that could lead to labor shortages, and tax cuts and deregulation that could juice the economy. Bernard Baumol says the Fed will be watching to see.

00:23:09 Speaker_05
Do businesses think they have to pay higher wages to find workers or raise prices to offset tariffs?

00:23:15 Speaker_07
If we begin to see inflation expectations pick up, that means that the Federal Reserve is even less likely to lower rates in December and obviously then into 2025.

00:23:27 Speaker_07
And that would mean the pain becomes even greater on especially low and middle income groups.

00:23:32 Speaker_05
And most Americans really want inflation tamed, says Chris Jackson at polling firm Ipsos.

00:23:38 Speaker_14
When we asked them what they want the Trump administration's priority to be in their first hundred days, by a large margin, they're saying dealing with inflation.

00:23:47 Speaker_05
And what Jackson says consumers want more than anything is for prices to fall back again to pre-pandemic levels, which isn't likely to happen. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

00:24:17 Speaker_08
So let's go from very big picture, Mitchell's macro story just now on business inflation expectations, to the very micro. What kinds of things small business owners are thinking about that are going to affect their economic futures?

00:24:31 Speaker_08
Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy.

00:24:34 Speaker_13
My name is Wesley Rule, and I'm the owner of Knoxville Fine Violins along with my wife, and we are in Knoxville, Tennessee. So I started at a very young age, sort of pressed into service with my father building pipe organs.

00:24:53 Speaker_13
At the time, probably as a way to rebel against my upbringing as a father who wanted me to play piano and organ, I was playing violin. I, at one point, was looking at the instrument and realized I had no idea how to make one.

00:25:09 Speaker_13
So I looked into it and decided to go a different route with my education and went to the Violin Making School of America in Salt Lake City. In 2020, we decided to open a shop.

00:25:27 Speaker_13
When we first opened the shop, it was just me and my wife and my mother helping us with the accounting. And as we grew, we started having to try to figure out what we were going to do with maybe hiring a potential employee. We were able to find Wyatt.

00:25:44 Speaker_13
He's been working here since February, I believe. He's been absolutely fantastic. Now we can get more repairs and more violin making done, which I wasn't really able to do much making until we were able to hire him.

00:26:01 Speaker_13
You know, recently we've been thinking about what's going to happen if there are tariffs specifically on Chinese goods, because a lot of our lower-end instruments come from China.

00:26:11 Speaker_13
We've been looking at replacement instruments coming maybe from Germany and Hungary, from Romania. We've also been looking at maybe American-made workshop instruments.

00:26:23 Speaker_13
We don't want to have a gap in inventory if something were to happen, and we don't want to raise our prices, especially for our economy model instruments, because at $650, while that may seem cheap to a professional, that's a lot of money that you have to shell out, especially as the cost of living is going up.

00:26:48 Speaker_13
My favorite part of this business, it's really hard to put a finger on because I enjoy doing all of it. I enjoy working with people.

00:26:55 Speaker_13
I enjoy seeing people really joyful of having found their forever instrument or just finding an instrument that they love to play. I'd say that my favorite part, though, is probably doing higher-end restorations.

00:27:10 Speaker_13
I really love taking old, historic instruments made by a luthier just like myself, you know, from 200 years ago, and being able to bring life back to that instrument. That's always really fascinating for me.

00:27:28 Speaker_08
Wesley Rule, with his wife, the proprietor of Knoxville Fine Violins, Knoxville, Tennessee, of course. Whether you're handcrafting fine instruments, working a desk job, or doing something else entirely, this series does not happen without you.

00:27:44 Speaker_08
So please write to us, would you? And tell us what's happening in your economy. Marketplace.org slash myeconomy is where you can do that.

00:28:12 Speaker_08
This final note on the way out today, courtesy of the American Farm Bureau Federation, its annual update on how much Thanksgiving dinner is going to run you on average nationwide. Turkey for 10 trimmings included $58.08.

00:28:25 Speaker_08
That is down 5% from a year ago. I'm just going to say it always seems to cost more than that at my house.

00:28:35 Speaker_08
Our media production team includes Brian Allison, Jake Cherry, Jessen Dueller, Drew Johnston, Gary O'Keefe, Charlton Thorpe, Juan Carlos Dorado, and Becca Weinman. Jeff Peters is the manager of media production. And I'm Kai Rizdahl.

00:28:47 Speaker_08
We will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is APM.