Part 2: Eagles/C-Words Reax, Drake Maye Fever, the RB Boom and Million Dollar Picks With Joe House and Nate Tice AI transcript and summary - episode of podcast The Bill Simmons Podcast
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Episode: Part 2: Eagles/C-Words Reax, Drake Maye Fever, the RB Boom and Million Dollar Picks With Joe House and Nate Tice
Author: The Ringer
Duration: 01:59:53
Episode Shownotes
In Part 2 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to discuss the Eagles routing the Commanders on 'Thursday Night Football' (2:25). Then, Bill talks with Nate Tice of Yahoo Sports and NFL Network to discuss Drake Maye's impressive development, the 2024 NFL draft
class, and projecting QB prospects (18:58), before Nate gives his five favorite things he's enjoying this NFL season, including surprisingly good defenses, the AFC juggernaut QBs, the Arizona Cardinals, and more (44:51). Finally, Bill and House run through their favorite games from the weekend slate (1:14:30), before making the Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 11 (1:44:38). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Nate Tice and Joe House Producers: Kyle Crichton and Steve Ceruti The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Summary
In this second part of the podcast, Bill Simmons hosts Joe House and Nate Tice to analyze various NFL topics. They recap the Eagles' recent win over the Commanders and discuss the competitive yet challenging season faced by Washington. The conversation then shifts to the promising development of quarterback Drake Maye and the strengths of the 2024 draft class. The participants evaluate the current state of the NFL season, spotlighting standout defenses and quarterback performances. The episode concludes with their Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 11, emphasizing their analytical approach to upcoming matchups.
Go to PodExtra AI's episode page (Part 2: Eagles/C-Words Reax, Drake Maye Fever, the RB Boom and Million Dollar Picks With Joe House and Nate Tice ) to play and view complete AI-processed content: summary, mindmap, topics, takeaways, transcript, keywords and highlights.
Full Transcript
00:00:00 Speaker_01
Okay, this is a true story. I have a friend who once faked his own death so he could have more time to watch his favorite TV show.
00:00:11 Speaker_01
In my new podcast, Truthless, I'm talking to people about the lies they tell, from forging new identities to taking their love of Game of Thrones a little too far. From Spotify and the Ringer Podcast Network, I'm Brian Phillips.
00:00:27 Speaker_01
Listen to Truthless on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
00:00:36 Speaker_09
This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. It's tip-off time for NBA Cup. So I hope you're all ready and stocked up on Michelob Ultra. Notice how I called it NBA Cup and not the NBA Cup? Trying to get that going. We'll see how it goes.
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Visit michelobultra.com slash courtside for free entry. Entry deadlines and official rules. and void were prohibited. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state.
00:01:58 Speaker_09
Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by state. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Put up a new Rewatchables on Monday night when we meet the parents.
00:02:12 Speaker_08
We have a sports movie coming next Monday night. Maybe I'll give some hints over the weekend on the Rewatchables Twitter feed.
00:02:19 Speaker_09
Stay tuned for that.
00:02:22 Speaker_09
Hey, if you missed part one of today's podcast, me and Big Waz and then Van Lathan joined us, we talked basketball, we talked Knicks and Bulls, we talked about the NBA's popularity these days with why the ratings are going down and yet the interest seems to be up and that conversation went in a whole bunch of directions as it so often does when Van gets involved.
00:02:43 Speaker_09
But we also talked about Mike Tyson. and the big fight coming up this weekend, and four decades of having Mike Tyson in our lives. So that was part one. Part two's a little simpler. Joe House is gonna come on at the very top.
00:02:58 Speaker_09
We're gonna be talking about the Washington-Philadelphia Thursday night game, the biggest NFC East game involving Washington in a long, long time. And then, House goes away, I bring in Nate Tice from Yahoo.
00:03:11 Speaker_09
We talk about Drake May, because he's on Drake May Island with me. And then we talk about the five things he's been the most excited about over the course of the season. Really fun football combo.
00:03:20 Speaker_09
And then bringing House back in to do Million Dollar Picks. And by the way, it's not sober House tonight. I'm just warning you guys now. So that is the plan for part two. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right.
00:03:55 Speaker_09
Tape in this first part of the podcast. It is almost 830 Pacific time. Joe House is here. His favorite team, the Washington Sea words was seven and two a mere five days ago. And it's now seven and four after two losses in five days.
00:04:13 Speaker_09
I listened to you on a very good show called East Coast bias on the ringer gambling show today. And you were saying it felt a little early for Washington in a game like this. So make the same case you made 12 hours ago on that show.
00:04:27 Speaker_05
Well, I've had a couple of drinks just to be blunt about it right from the top. So I'll be able to get half of it right.
00:04:34 Speaker_09
Is it is a drunk house or just slightly over served?
00:04:39 Speaker_05
Buzz house. OK. Buzz. Yeah. I'll say this. This Washington team has now lost four games on the season. All of their losses are to playoff teams from last year. None of, none of their losses came to teams that they were forecasted to beat.
00:04:56 Speaker_05
They have against their three toughest competitors, all one score games. So it's, it, this whole season is a silver lining season. and Washington just isn't quite good enough yet. They don't have good enough players.
00:05:12 Speaker_05
They have good players and kudos to the front office and the coaching staff and everybody to put out the first competitive team that we've seen here in Washington.
00:05:22 Speaker_05
Now we did make the playoffs a handful of years ago with Ron Rivera, with the team that finished under 500. I don't remember that. Did make the playoffs in 2015.
00:05:30 Speaker_09
Did we bet against Ron Rivera when he made the playoffs with under 502?
00:05:34 Speaker_05
We must have. Oh, I mean, it's lock of the century. I hope we did. Yeah. Yeah. But, you know, for two and a half, three, three and a half quarters, Washington was in this game. Washington looked fine. Well, you know why you didn't win?
00:05:50 Speaker_05
Because your quarterbacks hurt. Yeah, that's the other part of it. I said this on the show. One of my favorite bets for this evening was Jane Daniels under 43 and a half rushing yards. He can't run right now because he's hurt.
00:06:06 Speaker_05
He's, he's protecting his ribs. The team's protecting him. The point isn't to win in week 11. The point is to win enough games to make it to the playoffs. I think they need to win three more games The schedule sets up nice, we have a nice rest.
00:06:19 Speaker_05
Let's go through it. Yeah.
00:06:21 Speaker_09
You're home Dallas, home Tennessee next two. Great. You'll be favored by five, five and a half against Dallas, seven against Tennessee. You get a bye week at New Orleans, home Philly, home Atlanta, at Dallas again.
00:06:37 Speaker_09
You get Dallas twice when it looks like they're punting on the season.
00:06:42 Speaker_05
wonderful.
00:06:42 Speaker_09
Couldn't be 11 wins anyway.
00:06:45 Speaker_05
Yeah. And, and I think in the NFC you get to Ted great chance of, of, of getting in there and this little mini by can't be overrated, right? They go from this Thursday night game, which I hate. I hate a divisional game on a Thursday night, but now they
00:06:59 Speaker_05
they have the rest. We're going to get Marshawn Latimer. We're going to get, you know, Jane Daniels. Hopefully those eight days are meaningful to his recovery. The offensive line's a little dinged up.
00:07:12 Speaker_05
Cliff Kingsbury doesn't think so because he thinks that we should try the short yardage rushing plays that the Eagles, there were eight short yardage rushing plays. This is, I'll just do my Kingsbury bit for 10 seconds.
00:07:24 Speaker_05
Eight, eight short yardage rushing plays for Washington. They amassed a total of negative one rushing yards. Is it second half cliffs or do we have second half cliff in our lives?
00:07:35 Speaker_09
Are you talking second half of the season or second half of a game or both?
00:07:39 Speaker_05
All of the above, all the above sadly.
00:07:42 Speaker_09
So if Clint, if Cliff was a baseball pitcher, he'd be the, I don't want to see the lineup a third time guy.
00:07:48 Speaker_05
I'm tapping my right arm, I'm tapping. I'm tapping. You're bringing in the situational lefty? Who's the offensive coordinator relief? Yes, exactly.
00:07:54 Speaker_09
Well, that was the key part of the game was when it was, what, second and one. It felt like an either or game. I was sweating out an Eagles tease and an Eagles parlay. Second and one stuff. Third and one stuff. Let's go for it on fourth and two.
00:08:09 Speaker_09
Fumbled handoff. Daniels tackled three yards away from the line of scrimmage. And that flipped the game. I thought You know, and maybe I had some PTSD from last year with Jalen Hurts, but I think it was the Giants last year. I can't remember.
00:08:25 Speaker_09
With that game, the Eagles murdered literally every tease on the planet when Hurts threw that last interception into like five guys and it was like, oh, I bet on the Eagles.
00:08:38 Speaker_09
They're in the one game this year when Jalen Hurts just looks terrible and like he has seven injuries. It felt like that today in the first half. It felt like He doesn't look right. What's going on here? Are they hiding an injury?
00:08:53 Speaker_09
His body language gets weird. He starts getting a little hang dog-ish. He's a little slow to get up after he gets knocked down. Your defense was flying around. I felt like maybe you could steal like a 13 to 10 type game.
00:09:09 Speaker_09
It was sitting there for a while and then Saquon Barkley took over.
00:09:13 Speaker_05
and that defense, you know, God, God bless them. It's all, you know, retreads and guys that are, you haven't established themselves with much in the way of pedigree yet. Frankie Lou Vu is awesome. Bobby Wagner has pedigree. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
00:09:32 Speaker_05
And there's like, you know, like five or six guys who've established, but you know, you still have St. Juice out on the corner. Uh, the kid from Michigan. Now that looks like the steel of the draft Sandra still, uh, incredible.
00:09:46 Speaker_05
They went at him with both AJ Brown and, and, uh, Smith. And he, he, he was with the same route and he was there for both of them. So knock on wood, it's a, it's good. This is good team in progress.
00:09:59 Speaker_09
How did you feel about Dan Quinn's arms up in the air? We're up by seven on a Thursday night game with a chance to blow every parlay and teaser, double fist pump scream reactions.
00:10:09 Speaker_09
Like at least from, from a character standpoint, he seems like he'd be a fun coach to have considering your last coach was basically. Who is more dead, him or Joe Biden, in retrospect?
00:10:20 Speaker_05
Ron Rivera or Joe Biden? I mean, respectfully, Ron Rivera did just beat cancer last season.
00:10:28 Speaker_09
Why did that have to be the retort? Respectfully. I was setting you up for a Biden joke and now you have to get all serious on me.
00:10:35 Speaker_05
Jesus. We're way past the Biden joke, aren't we?
00:10:37 Speaker_09
Is there a video of Ron Rivera walking on the beach in Delaware like Biden or no? Maybe the two of them hand in hand together.
00:10:45 Speaker_05
Who knows?
00:10:45 Speaker_09
Notice Biden's wife didn't put her arm out. Maybe help the old man as he's trying to navigate some sand. Jesus.
00:10:52 Speaker_05
There isn't a lot of physical contact between those two. Ever since it became clear that he wasn't gonna run for president again. You can't catch those two together in a single camera frame. Yeah, it's tough.
00:11:03 Speaker_09
Tough times. We'll see how it goes. Okay, so big picture. I would have said Philly was maybe my number one draft pick for the other NFC title spot against Detroit. Something's missing and I don't know what it is.
00:11:20 Speaker_09
Now granted, their kicker today, they scored 26 points, their kicker missed two field goals and a PAT, so really they could have been in the 30s. I don't know what it is, but they have not won me over as the second team yet.
00:11:33 Speaker_09
The problem is I don't know who the second team is. We could have the Green Bay conversation, maybe we'll know more this week. Maybe this is the week San Francisco gets going.
00:11:41 Speaker_09
Maybe Minnesota will start looking again like they did in September, go on and on, but I just don't know who the team is.
00:11:48 Speaker_05
I still think it's Philly and I think that they remain a work in progress themselves. You have to remember like this is, and they made a point of it on the, on the broadcast, Alan Kirk, you know, America's favorite Thursday night couple.
00:12:04 Speaker_05
They, you know, Fangio's defense takes a little while for guys to get, they have two outstanding guys in that secondary, Quinian Marshall and Dejean. Yeah. And those guys are, are, are, are clearly, you know, getting it.
00:12:20 Speaker_05
Jalen Carter had a dominant game tonight against the Washington offensive line. That's been a revelation. So I think as they put it together defensively, ultimately they won that game with, with, with their defense. Right. That's what we would say. And
00:12:36 Speaker_05
I mean, I haven't seen anything out of San Francisco. San Francisco keeps trotting out the 30th ranked special teams. Get the F out of here. What they did last week.
00:12:47 Speaker_09
Isn't it worse than 30th? It was 30th before all the shenanigans last week.
00:12:52 Speaker_05
Well, there was a lot of dropped there was a lot of bad special teams.
00:12:55 Speaker_05
I mean Atlanta's kicker I'm gonna miss field goals, but in any event as you go down the list on the NFC side There's it's a lot easier to poke holes than express confidence I I think on both sides of the ball the Eagles are are the second best Yeah, it probably by default but I don't feel good about it I
00:13:20 Speaker_05
Okay, it is only week 11. Remember, this is a marathon.
00:13:24 Speaker_09
How many NFC teams would you take over the second NFC team?
00:13:30 Speaker_05
I would take the Bills.
00:13:30 Speaker_09
Buffalo, KC, would you take both of them? Yeah.
00:13:32 Speaker_05
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. Probably the Ravens. I don't know. I would take the Ravens. Ravens are close. Would you rather be the Chargers or the Eagles? Oh, definitely the Eagles. No, no, no, come on. We're not there yet.
00:13:43 Speaker_05
The Chargers just discovered that they have two receivers. Would you rather be the Steelers or the Eagles?
00:13:51 Speaker_09
Uh, Eagles, those weapons on the outside. I think I'd rather be the Steelers because the, the Sirianni factor, which did not rear its ugly head tonight because maybe on Thursday nights is better, but fair.
00:14:07 Speaker_09
So your teams, I'm guessing a playoff team still.
00:14:11 Speaker_05
Yeah.
00:14:11 Speaker_09
I don't see a scenario where that doesn't happen unless, unless Daniels is really hurt. But even now you're seven and three. Seven and four. I'm sorry. You're seven and four. You have a one game lead over Green Bay. Who's number three in the NFC North.
00:14:28 Speaker_09
Nobody in the NFC South catching you. And then in the NFC West, Arizona six and four, San Frans five and four and the Rams who we touted a couple of weeks ago, who now are in a must win spot against my guy, Drake May in the paths. Yeah.
00:14:43 Speaker_09
So 10 wins feels like it gets into the playoffs, right?
00:14:47 Speaker_05
I agree, yeah. I think it's 10 wins in the NFC, and I like our chances. I think, I'm cautiously optimistic.
00:14:54 Speaker_09
Has this been a good season for rehabilitating your Washington commander relationships in your life? I mean, look, I'm wearing the hat. What kind of text threads are you on? How many different Washington text threads are you on?
00:15:05 Speaker_05
a half dozen, uh, at least, and it's unbridled, uh, exuberance. Like, you know, we have a football team where, where everybody's, you know, in, in my conversations, it's around what the future might hold and everything begins with this quarterback.
00:15:22 Speaker_05
We must keep this kid healthy, but if we have that foundational piece, then it's been demonstrated, especially in his rookie year, in his first 11 games in his rookie year, he's showing that he belongs in the upper echelon.
00:15:39 Speaker_05
You get that, then you have a window, and if you have a window, you better jump through it in this modern NFL, right?
00:15:45 Speaker_09
We have the next segment, I'm talking to Nate Tice about Drake May, it's the exact same situation.
00:15:50 Speaker_06
Yeah.
00:15:51 Speaker_09
We're like, wow, we now have Even when this happened with Brady for the Pats and even with Bledsoe in the 90s, but I was way younger with having my history of football knowledge and just how important a quarterback was.
00:16:07 Speaker_09
You're like, oh, we'll get a quarterback. When you get older and you realize how rare it is and then you get one of these guys, that's like the number one thing you'd want in any sport.
00:16:16 Speaker_05
Well, and in this iteration of the NFL, this version, because of the way the salary caps configured, getting the most important player on the team at the cheapest possible price, and then trying to build around.
00:16:29 Speaker_05
It's why I admired what Houston did in the offseason, this most recent offseason, in terms of trying to add. He's got aggressive. You got to go. You got to go. The time is now if you have a quarterback like this. So I expect Washington with Adam Peters.
00:16:44 Speaker_09
It's like what what the Wizards are going to do with Bob Carrington. Same thing. Very simple. Now that you have your foundational piece.
00:16:52 Speaker_05
He's the guy.
00:16:53 Speaker_09
Now you got a bit. And Jordan Poole. Now you have that one too.
00:16:56 Speaker_05
Oh, yeah. Jordan Poole.
00:16:57 Speaker_09
Forty two points last night.
00:16:58 Speaker_05
Why did you have to do it? Forty two points last night. All he did. You know what that man did? delivered a cover. You know the line was 10 and Washington lost by nine.
00:17:09 Speaker_08
Jesus.
00:17:11 Speaker_05
I think we're in the heyday of betting on- It's a pool party, baby!
00:17:13 Speaker_09
It's a pool party! We're in the heyday of betting on huge underdogs in the NBA right now. You notice that? Like, the fucking, whatchamacallit, Hawks were 16-point underdogs and just went into Boston and beat them.
00:17:28 Speaker_09
I don't even, there might not even have been a money line in the game. This three point variance, it's like it's insane to lay that many points with any team. All right. Anything else in this game?
00:17:38 Speaker_09
Because we're going to take a break and bring you back later for a million dollar picks unless you have anything else.
00:17:43 Speaker_05
No, I'm pleased. You know, they were competitive, good, happy. Let's move on. Let's get let's get to 10 wins.
00:17:50 Speaker_09
OK. House, before we send you packing and bring in Nate Tice, I love the NBA cup. You also love the NBA cup, correct?
00:18:01 Speaker_05
Oh, not only do I love it, I gave out a beautiful group C, C cup parlay on the sports book. It's on the socials, baby.
00:18:10 Speaker_09
The C cup parlay.
00:18:12 Speaker_05
I love the cup. You kidding me? What was the C cup parlay? the, the, the Cavaliers to win group C in the East and the Warriors to win group C in the West plus four 85 baby C cup.
00:18:25 Speaker_09
Well, you know what makes the NBA cup even better than the C cup parlay, a ringer profit boost token on FanDuel, which you could throw that house bet on right now. Uh, we told Fando, we want to celebrate the NBA cup. give out some profit boosts.
00:18:39 Speaker_09
So what do we do? We created the 30 on 30 ringer profit boost token. Boost any 30 plus point scorer bet on the Friday NBA Cup slate, and that's any 30 plus point scorer that has minus 200 odds or higher is eligible for a 30% profit boost.
00:18:57 Speaker_09
Is your team playing in this on Friday?
00:19:00 Speaker_05
I don't know, are they?
00:19:05 Speaker_09
You can feel the excitement with the big cup. Yeah. Your team's playing Atlanta. Do you have a 30 point score you want to do?
00:19:12 Speaker_05
That's the only team Washington has beat this year. Let's say below cool. A Bali drops a 30 piece.
00:19:17 Speaker_09
Oh my God. I can't even imagine what the odds on that Bali 30 piece baby.
00:19:21 Speaker_05
Cool. Bye. I wonder if Fandle, do they even have the ads for that? Probably not because his career high is like 27 more wagers.
00:19:29 Speaker_09
Oh, look at this player points. Oh, they don't have cooler Bali. How about Trey Young, Jordan Poole, Kyle Koosman, or Jalen Johnson? Could Jordan Poole have 30 points against the Hawks plus 410?
00:19:45 Speaker_05
He's dying to have the chance. He's dying for that opportunity.
00:19:48 Speaker_09
No, we'll stick with, we liked Cleveland for this. Yeah, sure. So Cleveland has Donovan Mitchell plus 195, 30 points against the Chicago Bulls in the NBA cup.
00:20:02 Speaker_06
Great. Let's do that.
00:20:03 Speaker_09
We'll recommend that one. There you go, hope you like the ringer profit boost. Again, any 30 plus score that is minus 200 odds or higher is eligible for the 30% profit boost. We are doing it each Friday during the NBA Cup.
00:20:16 Speaker_09
House, I'm gonna send you packing for a little bit, bring in Nate Tice, bring you back on the end as Buzzed House to do Million Dollar Picks. See you in a second.
00:20:28 Speaker_04
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00:22:18 Speaker_09
Make sure your home is safe this season. Once again, simplisafe.com slash BS, SimpliSafe with two I's, simplisafe.com slash BS. There's no safe like SimpliSafe. All right, Nate Tice is here. I'm taping this in a studio I've never been in before.
00:22:35 Speaker_09
This is really exciting. I feel like I'm in a futuristic year or something talking NFL. You can read Nate. You can listen to Nate on Yahoo and the Yahoo Sports Network.
00:22:47 Speaker_09
We were just talking before we came on about this is the weirdest part of the NFL season. Explain your theory on this.
00:22:53 Speaker_07
It's that little lull before Thanksgiving hits, and it happens every November. And it's kind of, teams start getting chopped off, but we don't want to say it yet, just in case, you know?
00:23:05 Speaker_07
So like, all right, we got to kind of talk about the Bengals a little bit. All right, just in case. Well, the Jets won a game, so we kind of have to talk about them still.
00:23:13 Speaker_07
Now, until we can kind of get to Thanksgiving, I think everyone's a little too scared to just completely defeat them out of our discussions, completely wipe them out. So we have this little lull.
00:23:22 Speaker_07
Always just a little lull, from like week 9, when we do the little mid-season awards, to like week 13. And then we get to Thanksgiving and then December, and then we're like, oh yeah, yeah, here we go, playoffs are coming up, here we go, let's rock.
00:23:34 Speaker_09
I like that, the chopped off, Sal and I call it the cross-offs, where we cross teams off, but because we're still making picks and stuff, you never really know who can fully be crossed off. So there's almost two forms. One is,
00:23:46 Speaker_09
Hey, do we not have to worry about these teams as playoffs anymore? Playoff teams anymore. And then the other is what you're saying, which is basically like, can we just not talk about these guys anymore? Can we just wait until 2025?
00:23:57 Speaker_09
I feel that way about, like, I'm looking at the standings, Vegas. I'm good never talking about Tennessee again. Jacksonville right on the cusp. There's such a train wreck that, you know, maybe part of it. And then Carolina would be the other one.
00:24:13 Speaker_09
And then the Giants. So that's five. Is there anybody else you'd have?
00:24:17 Speaker_07
No, those are, those are really good. That's a good set right there.
00:24:19 Speaker_07
Cause even like the ones that we thought maybe we're going to drop off or still, like I said, interesting, you know, like, um, I, I like a good loser leaves town match at this stage of the year.
00:24:28 Speaker_07
Like starting in November, we can start getting those out there. You know, it's almost survivor series time, so we can do that. So I love a good loser leaves towns match. Like, okay, these two teams are playing whoever loses. Yeah.
00:24:39 Speaker_07
You're not getting talked about for a few weeks until we start talking about draft order or new head coach. So.
00:24:43 Speaker_09
What do we call what happened in Germany last week? What, what was, that was a two, two losers in a left town?
00:24:51 Speaker_07
That was Sunday Night Heat or Saturday Morning Jack. That was the, the C shows, you know, from WWE used to have. That's what that was right there. Well.
00:25:00 Speaker_09
House show. I didn't just bring you on to talk football. I had selfish reasons because I'm an only child.
00:25:06 Speaker_09
You were, you planted your flag on Drake May Island about as violently and aggressively as anybody last February, March and April, which really prompted us to start texting and going back and forth a lot more.
00:25:20 Speaker_09
Cause I'm like, I, I just, I, I like how this guy's thinking. I hope he's right. And I think he's right, but there's not a lot of us. And then watching Drake May finally gets the job he's got. D minus offensive line is generous.
00:25:35 Speaker_09
D minus receivers, generous. D plus play calling, generous. And I'm just so excited about what he's looked like. So you don't care about the Patriots. You're an objective guy. What have you seen? What are you excited about?
00:25:52 Speaker_07
It is funny when I start kind of playing flags on quarterbacks, I kind of get involved via Twitter and the beats for those teams. So I've been introduced to more Patriots reporters and bloggers than I ever even knew about going into this year.
00:26:06 Speaker_07
And also maybe why Belichick told them, you know, never gave them anything because holy crap, the day-to-day stuff that was going on during training camp with the Patriots was, it was pretty interesting. But this is me kind of raising that flag.
00:26:18 Speaker_07
I'm like the picture at Iwo Jima. Like the flag is just starting to get raised up there. You know, I think you're down there. A couple of us are up there. We're all pushing it up. This is why I was excited about him.
00:26:29 Speaker_07
He's a walking, talking, explosive play. And I think in the NFL right now, that is what you need at quarterback. You need guys, yes, to be smart and play the quarterback position.
00:26:39 Speaker_07
I mean, it's like operation and nickel and diming, getting the safe throws. I always thought May could do that better than people gave him credit for.
00:26:46 Speaker_07
But then you see the first completion against the Bears to Austin Hooper, throwing a guy open 25 yards down the field.
00:26:54 Speaker_07
Or the week before, a couple of weeks before, I should say, him just scrambling around when nothing was there, tucking and running against the Titans and against the Jets.
00:27:03 Speaker_07
That didn't end as well, but tucking and running and getting those opportunities. And that's what he was in college with a bad supporting cast his second year starting, his last year starting.
00:27:13 Speaker_07
So that's why I was kind of like, no matter what his situation was, I kind of thought he'd be able to still show signs because of just his explosive playability and his use to D-minus-ness around him. But this is, you know, it's not all perfect.
00:27:28 Speaker_07
But it is, there's so many just encouraging signs of the little things that they're doing, that completion that he had before the half against the Bears, when they, he hit, that was my favorite throw, probably he's made as a pro, which was just the, the in-breaker to pop the, or no, to booty, um, bootay, and then it was right, the clock ticking down, no timeouts, he runs up, they spike, they spike the ball, beautiful operation with one second to go.
00:27:51 Speaker_07
That is so encouraging, because that's not only just a cool throw that anyone can watch, it's also just the little things, the awareness of that situation. Again, this is why I was so excited about him.
00:28:01 Speaker_07
With the intangible stuff that we talked about the last time I was on the show, talking about being the little brother, being a good athlete, being competitive, you're already hearing stories about him having, you know, speaking to the team and requesting to do that.
00:28:13 Speaker_07
Pretty, it's pretty exciting. I'm sure Patriots fans are exciting, but I just think any good people, appreciator of good quarterback play should be excited about Drake May because he has, there's glimpses right now of special stuff that he's doing.
00:28:26 Speaker_09
I've read all of those stories.
00:28:28 Speaker_09
There was a really, there was a whole day of media coverage about when Drake May spoke to the team last week because he didn't love the practice habits and the Wednesday practice and asked to speak in front of everybody.
00:28:41 Speaker_09
And they're like, okay, do your thing, Drake May. And he went up and gave a, like a, they said it was like a fun speech. Um, definitely kicked the team in the butt a little bit.
00:28:51 Speaker_09
It was a little awkward, but everybody was like, Oh, he's doing, he's becoming a leader. Now this is happening. I think he had been afraid to, you know, he's the rookie, he's young.
00:29:01 Speaker_09
Um, but I think that was one of the things that when you read this stuff about him in college, that was pretty special about him, that he really did get it.
00:29:10 Speaker_09
He got like the whole, I'm the quarterback, this is my car, I'm the driver, I understand this piece of it.
00:29:17 Speaker_09
And you know, you look at some of the other guys that come in, it was notable with Caleb last week, watching that Bears-Pats game and how distant he seemed, which I think was a product of they're playing like shit, the coaching situation was obviously debacle, didn't seem like anyone was on the same page.
00:29:34 Speaker_09
You know, who would I rather have? Obviously, I'm picking Drake May because he's on the Patriots, but I didn't think it was going to be this close, Nate. Like, I didn't think, I thought Drake might not play this year. I didn't expect this.
00:29:48 Speaker_07
Yeah, which I was pulling my hair out a little bit because I never thought the mental side for May was why he had to sit, which is why you usually sit a guy. Well, this guy's only been in an air raid offense. He's never had to handle this.
00:30:00 Speaker_07
He's never had to handle that. He's never had to be in a huddle, all those things. I watched May and the in-between stuff was a lot of encouraging mental aspects. I saw him changing protections.
00:30:08 Speaker_07
I saw him doing a lot of aspects that maybe encouraged that he could start right away. And I think the footwork stuff got overblown because footwork was, Like that's coachable.
00:30:18 Speaker_07
That's what drove me nuts during that whole draft process where people acting like that's damning. It was, well, what if we cleans up the footwork that you guys are all worried about? And he's doing these things with quote unquote, bad footwork.
00:30:28 Speaker_07
And a lot of stuff is just people kind of. talking out of their ass, I think.
00:30:33 Speaker_07
He bounces, you even see him now, and even the quarterback coach talked about him, I'm blanking on his name right now, but he was talking about like, hey, you look and how he moves in the pocket, that's a good thing, because he's keeping his eyes downfield because he's looking to attack the defense.
00:30:46 Speaker_07
And sometimes when another offensive lineman's losing, it can look like he's drifting into another pressure, but he's going away from the initial pressure, which is a good thing. That's exactly what you want.
00:30:57 Speaker_07
The speech thing too is just that mentality. He has that, perfect level of golden retriever brain that I love.
00:31:03 Speaker_07
You know, Josh Allen's got that a little bit too, where it's like, it's confidence and everything, but they still have that little goofiness that it's like, okay, you're not just a total robot, you know, that people can relate to this.
00:31:13 Speaker_07
He made the reporters clap for the defense. That was hilarious. Cause it was just, he, it's just genuine. Like he's just going out. I'm with you. I agree. Right. It wasn't like him going like, Oh, this will be funny. He was like, Hey, let's do it.
00:31:27 Speaker_07
And like one person clapped and he was in phase. He was like, yeah, okay. That was fun. Like those little things really add up, especially when you're losing.
00:31:33 Speaker_07
Um, everything you can do anything when you're winning, everything's great when you're winning, but when you're losing those little things and guys are going like, oh, this guy is not like a total diva or this guy is not a, a total just, you know, homeschool kid.
00:31:44 Speaker_07
Like some of these quarterbacks can act like this guy's just a player. You hear other receivers talk about them. I mean, they all rave about him in between complaining about not getting the ball. They all rave about him.
00:31:56 Speaker_07
So like that's those again, these are just the little things when you're not in the building that you kind of look at, look for and go like, oh, OK, these are the things I would bet on. And I mean, the bets looking really good right now.
00:32:08 Speaker_09
I don't feel like I'm talking out of school with this story. I sat next to Christian Gonzalez at the Celtics-Nets game on Friday night. So he went and apparently they were trying to get Drake May to go, the Celtics.
00:32:21 Speaker_09
And Drake May didn't want to go because he didn't feel like he was playing well enough yet to go to a Celtic game on a Friday night when they had to leave the next day. And I was like, oh, that's so adorable, Drake May.
00:32:31 Speaker_09
I'm so glad you haven't lived up to your own standards yet as a QB, but I was like super excited to see that. He's checked every box for me, everything I've wanted to see, but it's interesting. Obviously they're using him terribly.
00:32:46 Speaker_09
I don't understand half of the plays they run for him.
00:32:49 Speaker_09
And one of the things I was saying to a friend of mine was I don't understand why they just don't look at like the 57 most successful Josh Allen plays that Buffalo has run for Josh Allen since 2019 and just start running all of those plays.
00:33:05 Speaker_09
And I mentioned that to you and you said that wasn't the guy that he reminds you of and you dropped the name that I did a double take. So say the name.
00:33:13 Speaker_07
Oh, God, this is even more of a lofty praise is that the high, high end comp I have for him, and this was going into the draft process, was John Elway. It is, yeah, I know. It's that big arm. Elway was, again, these are late memories.
00:33:28 Speaker_07
We remember the Broncos winning the Super Bowls with Mike Shanahan and him becoming more of a bootleg guy and more of an auxiliary guy to the run game, you know, being a Shanahan run game, and he was moved on the move.
00:33:38 Speaker_09
He's pretty beat up in the mid-late 90s, too. He'd taken some tickets.
00:33:42 Speaker_07
You know, he's, but prime Elway was running around throwing, you know, launching balls, trying to try all these aggressive throws.
00:33:51 Speaker_07
And again, this is the 0.001% comparison for May, but that's the guy where I was trying to come up with some high end comp.
00:33:57 Speaker_07
And I was like, that's really who I think of because the looseness of the athlete being able to throw a missile wherever he wants, that competitiveness, sometimes that Like he's not a dummy.
00:34:08 Speaker_07
I call him a golden retriever, but Elway was a coach's kid, obviously very smart, but he was still try stuff, you know, still try like still and still push the ball.
00:34:16 Speaker_07
He honed it in as the years went along, you know, shoot the Broncos drafted Tommy Maddox for a reason, but they, but really it was just that kind of loose athlete, that big arm. And that's where.
00:34:27 Speaker_07
Like, I see the ideal version of him becoming where it is a guy that throws on the move, there is more polish as it comes along.
00:34:34 Speaker_07
But even the stuff like the mistakes he makes right now, John Hollinger always, when he used to write the stat write-ups for ESPN, this always kind of stuck with me that
00:34:44 Speaker_07
He would talk about young players and usage and turnover rate actually being a good sign down the road to star level play because it's those guys they got they have the trust to handle the ball and to that they're trying stuff like that.
00:34:57 Speaker_07
That is the kind of the counter what's happening with Caleb Williams right now is that he's really trying to be perfect from the pocket and it's limiting his creation ability while May is playing just loose and fast and everything.
00:35:09 Speaker_07
And yeah, he'll make a mistake. He'll try a ball. I mean, the interception against the Bears was just
00:35:13 Speaker_09
He's just going to have two of those a game, and we've already come to grips with it. That's how it's going to go. It's fine.
00:35:18 Speaker_07
Yeah, but you take the other 48 good plays and you just deal with those overwhelming negatives because he's figuring it out. Even Mayo addressed this. He even said, he was like, yeah, I want him to try and figure this stuff out.
00:35:30 Speaker_07
You're learning what my ceilings are. Oh, I can't do that. That's time. Okay. And what's cool about May is you can tell he learns from those mistakes. Like, he is so cognizant. It's him talking about not going to the Celtics game.
00:35:42 Speaker_07
That self-awareness, I think, is just really encouraging. You want that for any athlete, but especially your franchise quarterback, you take it number three. And again, that's why it's encouraging.
00:35:52 Speaker_09
Yeah, and the Josh Allen thing, which makes the most sense just because he's recent, but there's Josh Allen's huge. Drake's big, but he's not big like Josh Allen is. Josh Allen feels like he's winning collisions. Drake, I'm still nervous.
00:36:06 Speaker_09
when in certain collision situations. But we were talking about it last week. I've never had a quarterback, like we had Steve Grogan in the mid 70s, so I barely remember, but he ran for over 500 yards. Like he was a running QB before his knees went.
00:36:23 Speaker_09
I've never had a quarterback who makes some of the decisions that he makes during a game. Like he'll go back and then he'll run up the middle.
00:36:31 Speaker_09
And he'll run up the middle like trying to get yards and trying to get like, it's not just like, I'm gonna run seven and slide down. He's like, I'm running up the middle like I'm McCaffrey.
00:36:41 Speaker_09
He'll run, he'll go to the right and you see like this, I call it the Zach Wilson. the scramble to the right, nothing's there, I'll throw it out of bounds.
00:36:49 Speaker_09
He does the Josh Allen thing where until the very last split second, he's still looking even 40 yards downfield. So it's just really exciting to watch him. To me, it's like I'm positive he's gonna be a franchise QB.
00:37:03 Speaker_09
The Elway thing is interesting though because I still feel like Elway's the most talented QB I've ever seen. I don't think he was the best. I think Brady's won the best. because he earned it.
00:37:17 Speaker_09
Montana, I always had the highest from that era because he just felt like he was always in the right hands of them. But I always thought Elway was just, Elway felt like he could just take the shittiest team and win like 10 games.
00:37:30 Speaker_07
And just that, just the size of those two, they're both 6'4", 225. Yeah. They're both like, and that's, thank you for saying the Allen thing. That's why I never want to throw out the Allen comp.
00:37:39 Speaker_07
There's some play style comparisons, but that's like comparing, you know, a two guard with a power forward. Right. You know, like it's yes, they could play a little similar. They do some wonky or wacky things.
00:37:50 Speaker_07
The sideline throw is exactly a great example. But it's also just like a yeah, Allen is 6'5 and change and a legitimate 240. And a guy like Justin Herbert, who also gets the Drake-May comparisons, Herbert's 6'6", 240.
00:38:07 Speaker_07
And 6'4", 225, and 240, that is a significant difference.
00:38:10 Speaker_09
Well, you know what that's like now? It's like Cooper Flagg, because Cooper Flagg's definitely special and they're comparing him. It's like, is it KG? And it's like, All right, there's pieces of KG, but KG was 7'1". Cooper Flagg's like 6'9", maybe.
00:38:24 Speaker_07
So you can't— People throw KG comps for him? That feels weird for me.
00:38:28 Speaker_09
Well, they were just talking about him and Duncan, how these guys that just can affect the game in all these different ways, that just play the game the right way, that are in the right spots, don't care if they score.
00:38:40 Speaker_09
But ultimately, there's a size difference. The same with Allen. I don't even know who you'd compare Allen to in the history of the league.
00:38:47 Speaker_07
No. Like Cam Newton, I can throw even better. But again, you're using different disclaimers with that. Flag was, I watched the Kentucky game.
00:38:57 Speaker_11
Yeah, Flag's got it.
00:38:59 Speaker_09
Yeah, he's got something. Just the body positioning. If we're doing this draft again, is it still the same order?
00:39:07 Speaker_07
Yeah, and I would say Jane Daniels for me, well, for me, yeah, because I made one and then killed two, but I would say Jane Daniels squeezed it closer than I gave him credit for. I had a half-tier gap with Daniels.
00:39:22 Speaker_07
You know, still some of the stuff I've been very impressed with, and I'm eating crow on Cliff Kingsbury, trust me.
00:39:27 Speaker_07
Um, and I, I just actually wrote about it today and just the offensive improvements, the cool stuff they're doing, a lot of tempo stuff. And I think Daniels has played to what I thought maybe his ceiling would be.
00:39:37 Speaker_07
There's just still some stuff I'm still wanting to see in the second half of the year, how much he doesn't, you know, really push the ball. It's very selected when he pushes the ball and he's, don't get me wrong.
00:39:45 Speaker_07
I'm talking about both sides of my mouth. He is excelling when he does it, but it's just. They haven't really faced the toughest slate of defenses that have forced them to do it.
00:39:53 Speaker_07
They faced the Steelers who really took it to them, and you could see them just not be comfortable.
00:39:58 Speaker_09
And we're taping this before the Eagles game, so that might be another defense tonight.
00:40:02 Speaker_07
That's another one. And also my, my little short list I got, I'm talking a little Eagles and that too. So, but the, uh, but, uh, so I just, and, but the thing was, I thought Daniels was a half tier below those guys.
00:40:13 Speaker_07
And I would say now him and Caleb are more closer for me than I would have gave him credit for. I'm still worried about the skinniness. Um, he has done a phenomenal job of avoiding hits. He is so, so fast.
00:40:24 Speaker_07
Like he is incredibly fast, but the thing is, you know, the long season, you know, you just take a couple of wrong hits, a couple of big blows, those start to stack up, you know, body blows start to stack up.
00:40:34 Speaker_07
So, uh, I've still though, I think I still would have them one, two, three like that, but Daniels would be a true number three or more of a 2B, 2A kind of thing.
00:40:42 Speaker_09
Do you care about, obviously you're going to care about a little, but the ages of the different guys, like Daniels is two and a half years older than May. is that, how much of that is an advantage as you're factoring that in?
00:40:56 Speaker_09
Because it's gotta be somewhat of an advantage, but I never know how to calculate that.
00:41:00 Speaker_07
Absolutely, and that's another thing why Daniel's a little bit lower.
00:41:03 Speaker_07
Like his two red alerts, and I would say red alerts, but I guess I was about to say red flags, but two kind of red flags there were age, skinniness, throwing over the middle, and you know, the hits that he took.
00:41:14 Speaker_07
He seems to be able to mitigate throwing over the middle. You can do that if you win other ways. He wins with acceleration and speed, But the thing is, again, what else are we tapping into? This is exactly how he played in college.
00:41:25 Speaker_07
And it was good in college. He won the frickin' Heisman. But again, this does matter because he was an older prospect. Bo Nix is a super old prospect. Bo Nix was as old as the oldest quarterback since Brandon Whedon drafted in the first round.
00:41:37 Speaker_07
You know, that absolutely matters. Drake May was in true air raid offenses that had no detail and no structure. That's why I was bullish on him. was that, OK, we haven't tapped into what he's actually good, what he could actually become.
00:41:51 Speaker_07
Caleb Williams and kind of a Lincoln Riley offense that takes adjustment to the NFL. I just thought that he had some, you know, I still do. I think he's actually pretty advanced mentally, but that I thought he would actually transition a little better.
00:42:03 Speaker_07
But even for me, I was like, oh, maybe I was a little ahead of myself there. But yeah, they're going to have more of a learning curve, especially than a guy that's 24 who has maybe seen 20 more games. Those reps add up. So yeah, no, absolutely.
00:42:17 Speaker_07
Age, especially at quarterback, is a big thing because it's just reps that these guys have. Like Anthony Richardson's younger than all these guys. So it's, you know, that's just another aspect of evaluating these guys.
00:42:27 Speaker_09
We talked about this the last time. It's so crazy that we are no better at this in 2024 than we were like 50 years ago. that we could have more and more data evidence of all these types of guys.
00:42:40 Speaker_09
And we still have no idea who's going to, like, I don't think Caleb's going to be a bust, but if you told me he's going to be a bust, I wouldn't be like, there's no way, you know, whereas like there's NBA guys that I would, I was like, that guy's not going to be a bust.
00:42:54 Speaker_09
There's no chance this guy, unless he gets hurt. But with quarterbacks,
00:42:59 Speaker_09
we've just seen it too many times where the combination of maybe you weren't quite ready yet, your team's a disaster, you lost confidence, you took some hits, your eye level moved down, and it's just this chain of events that all of a sudden you're in a different spot.
00:43:13 Speaker_09
Even like watching Sam Darnold now in Minnesota versus the Sam Darnold I watched, although Sam Darnold hasn't been great lately, but.
00:43:20 Speaker_07
Yeah, he's turning back into that.
00:43:22 Speaker_09
But you just think like how much damage can you put on a rookie QB in a wrong situation where you've now unraveled this to the point you can't put it back in the bottle.
00:43:32 Speaker_07
Yeah, the scar tissue of it all.
00:43:35 Speaker_07
I think maybe this should be a great learning example for everybody about, you know, shoot, we're still discussing Trevor Lawrence and whether he's it or not, but it's like how much situation matters for even the best quarterbacks.
00:43:46 Speaker_07
And I mean, there's 11 guys on offense, there's 22 starters.
00:43:50 Speaker_09
But we know what matters. The question is, Is it 90% of this and not 25%? Like it's such a situation almost everything.
00:43:59 Speaker_07
Yeah. You know what I mean?
00:44:02 Speaker_09
I'd say it's at least half.
00:44:05 Speaker_07
It is. I mean, look at Jared Goff from rookie year to Jared Goff for Sean McVay the next year. It went from, this is the worst rookie quarterback I've ever seen, to, wow, oh, okay, we actually got something here, to almost an MVP candidate.
00:44:17 Speaker_07
And also another thing, too, because Caleb got, you get a lot of backlash if you get described as generational, which is why that G word should be outlawed. It's, it's a, it's a bet that we're making on these prospects.
00:44:30 Speaker_07
Some bets like, you know, Wemby, the alien, Victor, like, yeah, 90% star here, you know, 8% starter and probably a 1% bench bust. A guy like CJ Stroud, he was my quarterback one in that class.
00:44:47 Speaker_07
I thought his, I, I look at it as star starter bench bust, you know, that's, it's a basketball one I take for it. But, but him, I thought his star was like 10%, but I thought his starter was gigantic. Like I was like 65%.
00:45:02 Speaker_07
Yeah, I was like, this guy, that guy to me felt so safe, even though he was younger and all the, and he had questions about, you know, creativity and all those things. But I was like, man, this guy, like, I just don't see him failing.
00:45:13 Speaker_07
Like, I just thought his, and a guy like Richardson in the same class, it was like, I see a 20% star, maybe 25%, but I also see a 30% bust. And same thing.
00:45:23 Speaker_07
Caleb, for me, had a huge starter, a good chunk star, and then just, I just thought he had a small bust potential. Like, it was just, again, but he still had it. All these guys have it.
00:45:34 Speaker_07
Even a guy like May, who I, is one of my highest graded quarterbacks I've ever had. They're gonna have that, but it's all, for me, chasing that percentage of star, because that's what you need to win.
00:45:43 Speaker_09
What'd you have for the pie with Bo Nix? What was starter and the pie? You got to name this pie, by the way. Is it like the, I don't know.
00:45:55 Speaker_07
I stole it from a basketball pot. Pigskin pie or something?
00:45:57 Speaker_09
I don't know.
00:45:59 Speaker_07
I stole it from Candace Hoopis and a guy that now works for the Nuggets, actually. He's like Man O'Lakes guy there. And he, and I just always liked the terminology for it. And that's kind of what I applied.
00:46:09 Speaker_07
But his, the one that stuck with me, it was Zach Levine. was the guy did an analytics thing on him. And he goes, hey, I got to bring up the comparisons. And like number eight on the comparison chart was Michael Jordan.
00:46:21 Speaker_07
Just talking about he was like, it was all these boss. And then, but then the like three of the comparisons of his like stat stuff was like, well, you got to look at the athletics and all that. And then that was the argument about Zach Levine.
00:46:31 Speaker_07
It was like, he might wash out of the league in two years, but he has that 20% chance or 10% chance of being a star and all star, yada, yada. So that's the player that that stuck out for me. But like a guy like Knicks,
00:46:44 Speaker_07
He was my quarterback five, and I viewed him more as a second rounder. I still thought he got overdrafted. The argument with him, or maybe my argument against him, was he had a ton of starts. But he still was so skittish.
00:47:00 Speaker_07
I thought his footwork was really bad. It's still kind of iffy. He just has wonky plays. He's a little too safe with the football. Down the field, his accuracy is not great, but I still saw a starter in there.
00:47:11 Speaker_07
Even my write-up with him was like, I view him as I think I had like, so if I did bench starter, bench to me is like a Jacoby Brissett, you know, or Gardner Minshew, maybe a spot starter kind of type.
00:47:22 Speaker_07
I had them kind of in that tier, like where it was like, okay, there's a big chunk starter and bench, like 80%. And then like a 10%, maybe 15% plus. So he's been better than that then. He's, I don't know, he's kind of been how he is. Okay.
00:47:38 Speaker_07
Sean Payne's doing a lot of good work. Yeah, you're right. He was. And Sean Payne's been in his bag, like he really has. The run game's good. The Broncos defense is sick.
00:47:47 Speaker_07
I think he is, he has improved from what he looked like week one, which was like, oh my God, you can't play this guy. They chopped out play calls for him too. So they've stopped using motion so much. So again, that's good coaching.
00:48:00 Speaker_07
Hey, let's make sure you're on straight and narrow. But from week two, I thought he was not going to make it after a rookie year. I thought we had a, you know, just a Josh Rosen situation going on. Now I'm like, okay, you could be a tangible starter.
00:48:12 Speaker_07
So like he's reaching that kind of maybe middle tier that I thought he could reach. Josh Rosen.
00:48:16 Speaker_09
We're going to take a break and then we're going to do five favorites. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season and Uber Eats is dropping undefeated deals on all your game day favorites.
00:48:30 Speaker_09
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00:48:58 Speaker_09
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00:49:12 Speaker_09
You get upfront pricing and you get extra wait time included. So go ahead, plan like a pro. Reserve your Uber ride up to 90 days in advance. See app for details. All right. So I asked you to make a list of five things relating to the NFL season.
00:49:28 Speaker_09
I did not want to know what was on the list and you can count them down from one through five or you can build suspense and go five through one. So what is the list?
00:49:36 Speaker_07
I'm going to build suspense and then, and I feel like, yeah, I went with, cause I'm so boring sometimes. I just went with things I'm enjoying in this NFL season. Well, you're a positive guy.
00:49:47 Speaker_07
I try to be, I try to be, I keep my negativity to myself most of the time. But yes, I want, because there's a lot too much about how like sports are worse than they used to be and all that. And it's like, no, it's the opposite.
00:49:58 Speaker_07
We should enjoy what these freaks are doing every week. And so I want things that I enjoyed, enjoy watching this season. And I'm starting with number five, and this is actually kind of a negative one. This is telling the Cowboys, I told you so.
00:50:11 Speaker_07
That's something I've been enjoying this season. Going, you guys thought you can draft two offensive linemen and start them and not have a running back and not have a second pass catcher.
00:50:20 Speaker_07
And you thought you can not have a defensive tackle that can stop the run. You thought Eric Kendricks could still play linebacker. And you thought you were contending and all in. And we told you so.
00:50:30 Speaker_07
And so that is something I've been enjoying because it's just it's as glaring as the light through Jerry world right now. All the warts that they have have just been popping. I know pimples pop, but you know, same thing.
00:50:42 Speaker_07
They just are just as shiny, as glossy as you can imagine. Even little things, not really a little thing. Dak Prescott gets hurt. Why aren't you playing Trey Lance? You traded a fourth for him, just give him some run.
00:50:54 Speaker_07
You guys aren't winning the Super Bowl this year. Figure out what you got. This is why you trade for him. The Mingo trade, Jonathan Mingo.
00:51:02 Speaker_07
Day late and dollars short, but also on top of that, Mingo, even if you look at his height, weight, speed stuff, he's like a gadget slot guy. You know who's best in the slot? CD Lamb. Why are you making that trade? You're making it worse.
00:51:16 Speaker_07
That's not actually a trade that's actually going to have a tangible effect on your team.
00:51:20 Speaker_09
Well, we liked him in the draft seven years ago. We got to get him. It's our chance.
00:51:26 Speaker_07
You know, that NFL tape doesn't matter. Hey, look at what he did. Ole Miss that last year. I know. And guys like Maisie Smith, when he gets drafted, they're like, no, he's going to stop the run for us. It's like, he didn't do that in college.
00:51:36 Speaker_07
What makes you think he's going to get better at it in the NFL? They let a guy like Jonathan Hankins go. He's just a role playing nose tackle, but he was like their most significant player on the defense.
00:51:47 Speaker_07
And then they're just like, yeah, we don't need him actually. It was like, no, you do. You do need him on your defense. I guess this is kind of a negative thing, but it is something I've been enjoying.
00:51:55 Speaker_09
No, I like it because the other thing you didn't mention was, and this never happens, but the over-under for them during the summer actually moved down and went from 10-and-a-half wins to 9-and-a-half wins. And because everybody was like,
00:52:09 Speaker_09
This team sucks. Like, what are we doing? And, you know, I can't even find nine wins in their schedule. And then they're, you know, then that Cowboy infrastructure moves in and says, no, no, actually, once they get CD signed and DAC signed, they stink.
00:52:25 Speaker_09
So that's a good one. I think that's a good start. It is fun to say, I told you so, to the Dallas Cowboys.
00:52:30 Speaker_07
What's number four? It is. Number four is surprising defenses. Improved defenses. This is a way, so this was my Eagles one, one of them.
00:52:38 Speaker_07
But teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, the Broncos, the Lions, even teams like the Chiefs, who had a really good defense last year, are even better this year. The Bills, who were expected to have a little drop off on defense, have actually Yeah.
00:52:52 Speaker_07
And like they are just cooking and doing a great job there. So I'll start with the Eagles. And this is more Vic Fangio going like, oh yeah, this is why everyone used to want to hire Vic Fangio.
00:53:03 Speaker_07
And they have a lot of good young players and new faces really stepping up for him. And it's been really fun. Quinion Mitchell, their first round pick, corner from Toledo has been great. Like as a rookie, rookie corner is really hard.
00:53:17 Speaker_09
Seems like they've had good rookie corners this year just in general.
00:53:21 Speaker_07
We have, and just really the last like two, three years, rookies, it used to be like year two, you expect a corner to be like even baseline. It's like a rookie in the NBA.
00:53:28 Speaker_11
Yeah.
00:53:28 Speaker_07
Like even if they like average, you're like, hell yeah. Like that's good. Um, but with Konyan, it's like, he's no, that's a good starter as a rookie. And he takes it two guys, which is really fun.
00:53:38 Speaker_07
Like he can actually go against number ones, but then Cooper Dejean, um, who plays in the slot for them has been tremendous. Like both of these two guys are going to be on the short list for defensive rookie of the year at the end of the year.
00:53:50 Speaker_07
And that was their first two picks. And Dejean from the slot, it's a very important position in this defense, how much they have to do in the run game, how much they have to blitz because of the soft kind of coverages they run.
00:54:00 Speaker_07
And he has been awesome. Some huge plays on fourth down, tackles Jamar Chase in space when they play the Bengals. Last week, he tackled CeeDee Lamb in space. No one really does that to those two guys. And there he is as a rookie acting like it's nothing.
00:54:14 Speaker_07
So those two rookies, I mean, even other guys, Milton Williams is a guy that was a role player for them. is now a starting defensive lineman. He's in a contract year, and he's gonna get paid.
00:54:24 Speaker_07
So even a guy like that, Jalen Carter, a defensive tackle, looks like a future All-Pro. He's fantastic. And then Zach Bond, who's a linebacker, retread, that he's a former Wisconsin guy, and mostly he played as an undersized pass rusher.
00:54:38 Speaker_07
And Vic Fangio's like, ah, we're gonna probably off-ball. And he looks like a pro bowler. And it's like an inspired player. We're gonna watch him. He's fully back. Fully back and maybe Howie, Howie hit a little magic this year.
00:54:51 Speaker_07
Howie was getting a little like, okay, you know, like that's how we always nail it. And then this year it looks like he's just rejuvenated all of that. So, yeah.
00:55:00 Speaker_09
Well, you probably just jinxed them because we're taping this before they play tonight. They're definitely giving up 45 tonight.
00:55:06 Speaker_07
I mean, but even like stat-wise, there's seven in DVOA. And then there's, so I look at, I think, success rate and explosive play rate and I combine them. People want me to call it sex rate, but then someone today said, let's call it suplex rate.
00:55:19 Speaker_07
And I was like, oh yeah, there we go. But they're second in that right now. And then like even the other defenses I mentioned, the Broncos defense is a lot of fun.
00:55:26 Speaker_09
Well, like out of the defenses you mentioned, I wasn't surprised by the Chargers, because their coaching situation last year combined, they had real talent. Right. The bills, the bills have McDermott. They have the history.
00:55:40 Speaker_09
At least I didn't really understand how they were going to get all the players to pull it off, but they did the Broncos. I don't get it all. Like the, the advanced stats for the Broncos are nuts.
00:55:49 Speaker_09
They're top five all over the place and all these key categories. And they passed the eye test too. Like I thought they did a great job against the chiefs last week. It feels real to me. I don't get it.
00:56:00 Speaker_07
Yeah, they, they just have a lot of good, you know, like Patrick Sertan is, if he wasn't hurt, he'd be up there with defense player of the year. Like we'd be talking about him. He's the best corner in the game. He's incredible.
00:56:12 Speaker_07
But then like their other corner, Riley Moss is good. And it's not even just in the sense that he's, you know, the first white corner since Jason Sehorne, like he's a legitimately good player. So it went from a bit to like, oh no, no, he's just good.
00:56:24 Speaker_07
We don't have to make jokes anymore. Um, but they, like they, so they have those guys and they just play press man, take it to them. Vance Joseph is really aggressive. He's a lot like he, he has some weight Phillips to him.
00:56:34 Speaker_07
So it's a lot of like, okay, we're in man coverage. That guy's blocking blitz. Then they call green dogs and they are just show. They just, they don't want you to breathe. But you have to really perform to beat them.
00:56:45 Speaker_07
Yeah, they're they're outstanding I mean they gave up 70 points in a game last year and now every metric their top five and it's legit It's very legit. Zach. Allen has had a good year.
00:56:54 Speaker_07
Um defense alignment there the fourth watt brother Uh, no, it's they're they're a very good unit the chargers too has been very impressive chargers Yeah, not surprising at all that they would be good.
00:57:06 Speaker_09
But I think they're even a little better than I thought, I was pretty bullish on them. We'll see with the Bills.
00:57:11 Speaker_09
The Chiefs game is going to tell us a lot with the Bills because, you know, there's been a couple games this year where it's like, oh, do they have a good defense? But then, you know, that might be like the good bad team on defenses.
00:57:25 Speaker_09
And I want to see, like, can they shut down the Chiefs? Because I feel like the Chiefs, you know, we're getting into it with million dollar picks later, but I just, Chiefs has another dog. I'm just always buying every time. I'm just sorry.
00:57:38 Speaker_07
Blind buy. Plus money Mahomes? Hell yeah. That's what you do. No, and the Chiefs have, I'm trying to find a better term than this, but natural answers too. The Bills play all this cover too. And then Mahomes now is like, okay,
00:57:53 Speaker_07
You know, he's just going to nickel and dime. It might be a Juju Smith-Schuster game as far as underneath throws, if he's healthy. It might be a Travis Kelsey decent game as well.
00:58:02 Speaker_07
But the Chiefs are, their offense is just so brutally efficient this year. It's just, you know, it's just, they're going to take their five-year gains and you're going to like it. And that, I mean, that's, no defense has stopped it so far.
00:58:13 Speaker_07
So the Bills playing cover two, they're not very aggressive. It's kind of like, well, you need to be aggressive.
00:58:18 Speaker_07
You need to take the fight to the Chiefs, otherwise they're fine taking these five, six yard gains and punching you in the face over and over.
00:58:24 Speaker_09
Little Hopkins, seven yarder. All right, what do you got for number three?
00:58:28 Speaker_07
Number three, and this is kind of tying, just even talking about the Bills, but kind of a cop out here, because I want to talk about a few things. AFC juggernaut quarterbacks.
00:58:37 Speaker_07
This is Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert. The big five in the AFC. And the big thing with that is Herbert's back. So back, so unbelievably back. I was worried.
00:58:49 Speaker_07
Because I was a little scared, especially since I have some Dynasty shares in him that I maybe got a little worried about it. But the, how about the vibes with Harbaugh and Herbert?
00:58:58 Speaker_07
Like they, the buddy comedy with this is just amazing and it's genuine and you can see Harbaugh really kind of, did you see any of the videos from this past week?
00:59:06 Speaker_09
Oh, I. I think that should be like its own ch— I think NFL Network should just have like a three-hour show of all the locker room speeches, and I love all that stuff.
00:59:17 Speaker_09
I think it's so— it's such a fascinating kind of window into what the locker room is actually like. Who's the leader? Who gives the speech at the end before they go, all right, everybody all in. Like, I just love that stuff.
00:59:31 Speaker_07
And how the game balls work, like, Oh, are they, are they giving it to the owner? All right. But, you know, it's, but it, no, that's, that's a very real thing.
00:59:39 Speaker_07
Like who speaks after the coach who like, even that Harbaugh video, they, they, or the Chargers video, they're like, Hey, Herbert. He's like, Justin, just talk to us. And then Herbert kind of gave the little like two second speech, which is perfect.
00:59:52 Speaker_07
But again, it's like a little, you know, microcosm of like what each locker room is. No, that's such a great point.
00:59:56 Speaker_09
One of the things I did with over-unders this year, which I'm doing really well on this year, is I just, I realized I wasn't putting enough thought into good coaches versus bad coaches.
01:00:09 Speaker_09
And even something like the Chargers situation, where it's like, well, I don't know, they're over under eight and a half, but Harbaugh, and maybe it's a little too high. And I'm like, they're going from Staley to Harbaugh.
01:00:19 Speaker_09
That's gotta be worth five wins. It just has to. There's no way it's not. We've seen it happen over and over again. Same thing with Dan Quinn not being Ron Rivera. I don't know how many wins that's worth, but it's gotta be worth a couple.
01:00:31 Speaker_07
Um, like just just having an energy sometimes works like just yeah, or just being competent like with harbaugh It's not like they're doing anything crazy. They're just competent.
01:00:40 Speaker_07
They don't they don't get penalized They don't turn the ball over all their scheme stuff is sound the defensive coordinator is a star. Uh, jesse minter Uh, yeah, he's back in michigan.
01:00:50 Speaker_07
He's no no, he's gone very soon Yeah, they get him for another year. It's a miracle. But but again, it's Sometimes it's just having a high baseline. And when you have a dude at quarterback, that's kind of enough.
01:01:03 Speaker_07
Even talking about the Broncos with Bo Nix, Bo Nix isn't making mistakes and the rest of the team is competent. So it's like, yeah, now they might be a playoff team because they're just not idiots.
01:01:13 Speaker_07
They're above the idiot line, the Mendoza line of coaching.
01:01:17 Speaker_09
Do you buy into the sideline stuff? Like, do you watch the sidelines when you watch games? Because that's another thing I find myself doing more and more every year. And the chargers. the chargers have a really good sideline, like the reactions.
01:01:29 Speaker_10
Oh, yeah, yeah.
01:01:29 Speaker_09
You know what I mean? Like somebody fights, it's a 3rd and 9, and the guy fights and gets the extra half yard, and you'll see like 15 chargers like jumping out in the field, getting fired up, and I'm like, ah, that's a good sign.
01:01:40 Speaker_07
That's real. That, well, that's what turned me on to, I was always kind of an optimist with them, but Dan Campbell's lines was his first year with them was even they're getting their faces battered in every week. That sideline was into it. Yeah.
01:01:54 Speaker_07
Um, Shanahan's first year and with the 49ers in 2017, bad team and defense is trying to tackle everyone. Everyone's going nuts about touchdown. You also, There's buy-in like, um, or just being locked in.
01:02:09 Speaker_07
Like you can see sometimes when someone scores and how other players react to that because they're aware that that call was happening. Like they're aware that that design was meant to do that.
01:02:18 Speaker_07
So again, it's just reading in between the lines of like, are they locked in? Are they not? I mean, you watch, you just watch the Bears. You can just tell like, oh, okay.
01:02:26 Speaker_09
It was like really dramatically noticeable. And on the flip side, Arizona. Where you watch Arizona, you're like, whoa, does this team have good chemistry? It's first time in 10 years.
01:02:38 Speaker_07
I was, I was, I can segue to my number two, the Cardinals. Let's hear it. Just they're, they're my number two thing for this list. The thing that I'm enjoying most is just the Cardinals in general, every aspect of the Cardinals.
01:02:51 Speaker_07
I enjoy watching because they are exactly what we're talking about here. Everybody's locked in. I mean, Marvin Harrison Jr. 's fist pumping after a run for a touchdown where he has to make a block.
01:03:03 Speaker_07
So we got, that's the number four pick overall who's probably been a star since he was 15. They're doing the dirty work and celebrating someone else scoring.
01:03:13 Speaker_07
And then I look over, no offense to the guy, because I really liked him, Roman Dunzey for the Bears. something happens, he's like, all right. And which is not how Roman Dunzey was in college.
01:03:24 Speaker_07
It just kind of speaks to what the buy-in is for each of these teams, or each of these players in the units.
01:03:28 Speaker_07
But yeah, thank you for segmenting me to the Cardinals, because on the last show I was on, I was pretty optimistic about them, and this hopefully was what I was talking about. But offense, they're looking like a top five offense right now.
01:03:40 Speaker_07
But were you expecting them to be this physical? That's the thing that I was surprised by. That's what they bought into. Last year, the offense line played way above, punched way above their weight. Having James Conner kind of sets the tone too.
01:03:54 Speaker_07
But just their buy-in with the tight ends. You know, they had Elijah Higgins last year and Trey McBride, and then they drafted Tip Ryman in the third round. And I was like, oh, okay, I see what you guys are leaning into.
01:04:04 Speaker_07
Like, we're not getting, like, finesse-y tight ends. We're actually getting, like, brawlers that can actually do stuff. And they, drafting Paris Johnson Jr., their left tackle from last year, they're all tone setter types.
01:04:14 Speaker_07
So, even their other receiver, Michael Wilson, he's big and will do dirty work. And that's why I was pretty optimistic about him, was they were doing a lot of, everything was sound, like, conceptually.
01:04:25 Speaker_07
And sound, but, and very traditional in some senses, but just enough modernizations, you know, it's like watching screen for the first time. It's like, Oh yeah, this, this is a slasher movie. Oh, okay. But you're doing the meta thing. Okay. That's cool.
01:04:38 Speaker_07
Like they just do a little bit of motion, a little bit of tweaks and inverting roles. They kind of their own, they do a little bit of everything in the run game, but it's really sound. They're not running against bad boxes.
01:04:50 Speaker_07
Um, Kyler is playing fantastic right now.
01:04:54 Speaker_09
Our friend Mina. You kind of threw him into the MVP conversation like she was like tipping a waiter. I was surprised. I wasn't ready to go there with Kyler because I've seen them win games where he didn't have to do that much.
01:05:07 Speaker_09
But where do you sit on that? Do you see that?
01:05:11 Speaker_07
I, man, I mean, he's, he's got a better argument than most, I'll put it that way. I have those AFC, the five AFC quarterbacks that I just mentioned, basically as my top five.
01:05:21 Speaker_07
So I think Kyler would probably be the one, you know, next, next one in, you know, first four out. I mean, Kyler, QBR is just one stat, but Kyler is second. in the NFL right now in QBR. Lamar Jackson's one, Cowher's two, and Joe Burrow's three.
01:05:39 Speaker_07
And this is the most he's playing real quarterback. This is kind of continuing my Kingsbury offense stuff. was that has a high floor, but the ceiling I think is lower because of what they can get to and what they ask of their players.
01:05:54 Speaker_07
With Kyler and Drew Petsing, their offensive coordinator, they said, no, you're playing quarterback. Like we're putting you under center. You are killing plays. You are pointing out who has who in protection.
01:06:05 Speaker_07
And there's some rough stretches early in this year, even last year, even some of the quote unquote good games. Now I would say the last like three, four weeks, it's like, see it, like you can see the confidence really bubbling with him.
01:06:16 Speaker_07
He's been under center 30% of the time this year. The first four and a half years of his career, he was under center for 125 dropbacks total in his first four and a half years. He's been under center for 55 dropbacks this year.
01:06:28 Speaker_07
So almost, he's already, you know, almost getting a half. Yeah. So 125 in four and a half years under Cliff Kingsbury. and half a year Drew Petzing, 55 just this year. That ties into the run game. That is tying into their play action games really good.
01:06:44 Speaker_07
And like when I mentioned their little tweaks they do, they're kind of modern. I wouldn't say modern, just understanding what to do. Like a bootleg, like just a normal bootleg that everyone runs.
01:06:55 Speaker_07
Usually you run it with zone, where everybody steps the same way. You remember the old Texans, Gary Kubiak videos they would show? What they do, and it's not new, but they're one of the few teams that leans into it.
01:07:06 Speaker_07
They pull a guard when they run a bootleg. And most teams try to avoid doing that because it can get a little dicey up front and everything. But they're well coached. They do it only against the right fronts.
01:07:16 Speaker_07
And it ties into what their run game is because they pull so many guys. And once they pull that, it attracts the linebackers. You should watch against the Jets. It was comical. The Jets linebackers are sprinting with it because the guards pulling.
01:07:27 Speaker_07
So again, they're confident that they can do this little tweak. But again, it sets up everything because they're going under center because they're running the ball.
01:07:34 Speaker_07
Well, they can get to that stuff, and it turns into 15-yard gashes to Marvin Harrison or to Trey McBride, who Trey McBride's also playing like a top three tight end. So that also helps, too. It's just a, shoot, the defense is fine. It's crazy.
01:07:49 Speaker_09
I mean, they were underdogs at home against the Jets last week.
01:07:53 Speaker_07
Insane.
01:07:53 Speaker_09
And I thought that was one of the weirdest lines of the year. Like when House and I were doing Million Dollar Picks, House was like afraid of it, because it was like, what's going on with this line? These two teams are not the same level.
01:08:07 Speaker_07
And I know I looked at the injury report after that, because I remember being like, am I, did I forget someone's hurt? Like, is Kyler out or something? But no, that was just, you know, no one watches the Cardinals.
01:08:17 Speaker_07
And then we get updates about Jets warmups.
01:08:20 Speaker_09
We watch them because we're on the West Coast and there's three games in the 125 slot. What's your number one?
01:08:28 Speaker_07
Well, and this is tying into a little bit what the Cardinals are doing and other teams I've kind of mentioned, but it's the run game and the running back renaissance that we're going through this year.
01:08:37 Speaker_07
This is what has juiced me up about the NFL this year. The Cardinals are a part of this and their run game, but this is not only just the investment teams have made in running backs, which we've seen with Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley,
01:08:51 Speaker_07
Even other guys that were signed over the years. James Conner was a free agent addition for the Cardinals. We go one after another. Josh Jacobs with the Packers.
01:08:59 Speaker_07
But also the first rounders teams I've made on the running backs have been paying dividends. Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs with the Lions. All these teams. You gotta throw Nagy in there. I would throw him in. I think Nagy's been pretty good.
01:09:13 Speaker_07
Najee went from, I actually, it was funny, I actually was like, he should not be getting the ball anymore. And it feels like when I said that on my podcast, after that, he has just run harder than he ever has in his career.
01:09:24 Speaker_07
Right, yeah, just me, you know, football 301, check it out. But the Steelers though, they're a part of this too. I've been always an Arthur Smith apologist.
01:09:32 Speaker_07
And now with their offensive line, Zach Frazier, their center, is legitimately one of the best rookies in the NFL, like at any position. And then they have another rookie right guard, Mason McCormick, who's playing well.
01:09:44 Speaker_07
Isaac Shumolo, their left guard, has come back from injury. Now you can feel that beef coming back with their run game, which has been a lot of fun along with Russell Wilson Moonballs. But the Bills' run game is really good.
01:09:56 Speaker_07
I've been calling it spread bully, because they'll spread people out, and then they'll just run it down your throat. James Cook has done a lot better as being kind of more of a sound running back. Ray Davis is really punching people in the face.
01:10:09 Speaker_07
And it's really just taking advantage of defenses that are terrified of Josh Allen. So their bills are just like, all right, we'll take six yards. Thank you.
01:10:16 Speaker_09
Well, you're also seeing bad teams like Carolina last week were like, we suck. Let's just run Hubbard over and over and over again. Maybe this will work. And it actually worked.
01:10:25 Speaker_07
Yeah, they're on the short list here, but Ravens, I already mentioned them. The Eagles realizing, oh yeah, Saquon Barkley's good. Let's just get under center and hand them the ball. No, the Panthers is a great example.
01:10:36 Speaker_07
They invested in their guards, and that was to help out Bryce Young and keep the pocket, the interior of the pocket clean. But then now it's paying dividends with the, you know, the Chuba Hubbard, and then they can just pound the rock 20 times.
01:10:46 Speaker_07
I mean, this really, the defenses are giving you this. So you have to invest in it. So what does this mean for the drafts?
01:10:52 Speaker_09
Is this, are running backs going to be the same kind of assets they were, or are we going to flip this?
01:10:58 Speaker_07
I think it's more, it's still going to be like, maybe, well, this class is, of course, it's kind of a, you have Ashton Gentee from Boise State, who I have number eight on my big board.
01:11:07 Speaker_07
I just did a podcast with Dan Brugler, who, from The Athletic, he has him at number six overall on his big board. He's incredible. I don't know if you've watched him yet, but he is one of the most fun watches in any sports.
01:11:17 Speaker_07
So yeah, Ashton Gentee, running back from Boise State. But then there's a lot of day two backs. And it's just a difference now where these guys have to play all three downs. The only star running back that doesn't do pass protection is Derek Henry.
01:11:33 Speaker_07
But that's Derrick Henry. He can get away with it because he's 6'5", 250, and we can give him the ball 40 times.
01:11:39 Speaker_07
So we're kind of getting to this new thing where it's like, yeah, you need, you can't just go, oh, running backs don't matter in the sense that, yeah, or I'm sorry, you can say running backs don't matter, don't take them in the first round, but you can't just ignore the position.
01:11:52 Speaker_07
You have to step. It like Dallas state, you still have to invest. Look at the Vikings who like Sam Darnold's had a good year. Um, you know, turning into a pumpkin a little bit right now. Defense has got a lot of headlines of Brian Flores.
01:12:06 Speaker_07
They also took Aaron Jones. They drew or signed Aaron Jones. Yep.
01:12:10 Speaker_07
Totally change their run game because he's explosive and and now they don't have to rely on another 20-yard Justin Jefferson play Okay, Aaron Jones can maybe give us a 15-yard game that we didn't have before So you have to invest in these positions that even it used to be kind of a throwaway But now I think day two it's gonna turn into like oh, no, we got to take another guy Even if we have one we need to if we're gonna really invest in it's why I haven't given up on the Dolphins yet
01:12:34 Speaker_09
just because nine and eight is gonna be in the seven seed, but I, and they didn't even run the ball that well against the Rams, because the Rams front has been pretty good.
01:12:42 Speaker_09
I think the Pats are gonna have trouble with it this week, but I think they're gonna be able to run the ball as it gets colder, which is unusual for our Miami team. But yeah, they have a bunch of deals.
01:12:52 Speaker_09
But no, that's a great- Wait, I have a question based off your thing. Yeah. Do you have a favorite random non-star arrow pointing up running back as we head toward fantasy playoffs? Are you buying the guy in Denver?
01:13:09 Speaker_09
Big wave for Roger Guestimay this week.
01:13:11 Speaker_07
Roger Guestimay? Yeah, I am. I was pretty high on him in this draft. He was one of my more favorite backs. Non-standard. Oh, man. Well, Tyrone Tracy, everyone's got him now. No, he's already happened. Yeah, he's already swooped up by everybody. God, no.
01:13:25 Speaker_07
Are you a Braylon idea?
01:13:26 Speaker_09
Braylon Allen stock buried in your shoebox up in your attic?
01:13:30 Speaker_07
I do. I do as he's a Wisconsin guy. I've been hearing about how young he is for about five years now.
01:13:38 Speaker_07
Yeah, no, he, oh, Rochon Johnson maybe for the Bears as maybe just a flyer because I don't know, like they invested in DeAndre Swift, but it's kind of like DeAndre Swift's making a lot of mistakes.
01:13:48 Speaker_07
So like, and just other things and Rochon Johnson's a little safer. So maybe he kind of takes a few more touches there. So maybe that's one, you know, kind of looking on, you know, the kind of fifth tier running backs.
01:13:59 Speaker_07
Yeah, if you're throwing some dart throws. Ray Davis is the other one for the bills, but he's already probably best referred to by a lot of teams.
01:14:04 Speaker_09
I like him. To me, running backs, it's like seeing a good-looking actor or actress or just hearing a good voice and you just know immediately. I feel like with running backs, you know right away. It's like, oh, that guy's good.
01:14:16 Speaker_07
It's the easiest position to scout. It's like, yeah, it's the one where you do this.
01:14:20 Speaker_09
Like Ray Davis, you're like, oh, that guy's good. Oh, yeah, he'll pay up the bills. You just kind of know immediately.
01:14:24 Speaker_07
Oh, he keeps getting positive yards, this is good. Yeah. And in this class too, in next year's draft class, there's just a ton of day two guys. So there's kind of a rejuvenation of that position that's happening right now.
01:14:37 Speaker_09
All right, Nate Tice, before we go, I'll give you 75 seconds to not panic about the Timberwolves.
01:14:48 Speaker_07
Oh, no. Oh, I'm panicked. They need a players only meeting. They miss Kyle Anderson. You know, they miss him so bad.
01:14:57 Speaker_07
My guy, SloMo, they really miss him right now because he was such a glue guy for them as far as just the second unit defense and just also an auxiliary ball handler and all that.
01:15:07 Speaker_07
And I still have faith, but I was also wanting them to make the fricking semis for the in-season tournament so I can watch them here in Vegas. Like, you know, can we keep the NBA Cup?
01:15:18 Speaker_07
Can we like, can you guys focus on the NBA Cup so I can watch you here in Vegas? But no, I am a little worried because there's a little bit too much of this kind of lackadaisicalness, especially on the defensive end.
01:15:29 Speaker_07
And Rudy Gobert kind of said, oh, yeah, it's on me. But, you know, that's Rudy. And it doesn't help when Karl-Anthony Towns is dropping 40 something in New York, even though they lost. Still, you know, that doesn't help.
01:15:41 Speaker_07
But so I have a little bit more panic, even though I've been I'm still optimistic about this team because I just love Anthony Edwards so, so much.
01:15:47 Speaker_09
I said this on Tuesday night's pod, because we did a pod after NBA cup, and I was saying with the Timberwolves, it's early, you don't want to panic. Edwards is obviously better than he was last year, so that's a bonus.
01:16:00 Speaker_09
With that said, I just like the team from March, April, May more. They were so unique. I didn't really know what the ceiling was. It was, but they were a one of one. There was nobody else like them in the league.
01:16:14 Speaker_09
And now I just feel like they're another team.
01:16:17 Speaker_07
Oh, that is, it's one of my biggest beliefs in sports is you got to zag when everyone else is zigging and going, we need swing. You know, we need all these swing guys, Neil, these wings. And they were like, no, we're getting three centers.
01:16:29 Speaker_07
And we're going to just go down your throat because you're like a, you know, triple option team in college. Shoot, we only face this once a year. Like, oh God, all right. How do we defend this? Oh God, they're so unique.
01:16:41 Speaker_07
And yeah, in a playoff time when you get the repeat matchups, but the thing is who's still the, you know, well, other than the Thunder, The Nuggets, they had the best counter for the Nuggets. They could just keep throwing size at them.
01:16:53 Speaker_07
One after guy, Jokic and all the guys.
01:16:55 Speaker_09
I think that Dallas series really, well, it's two things. One is financially, it's just so much harder to keep any team together.
01:17:01 Speaker_09
And it was clearly a financial move first, but I also think that Dallas beat them in a way that made them think like, all right, we solved Denver, but now we have Dallas and OKC to worry about for the rest of the decade. And maybe we should zag again.
01:17:14 Speaker_09
But I just, I don't like when you're doing something that, you know, you're being mentioned with some of the great teams in the last 35 years of the league at, and now you just seem like you're an ordinary team defenseman.
01:17:29 Speaker_09
I know they're not ordinary because they have Gobert, and they have Edwards. McDaniels is playing better. But it just feels different. I'm not going to panic until 30 games. I know you're an actual fan, so you're panicking now.
01:17:41 Speaker_07
No, I don't, well, for me, my NBA fandom really starts after the All-Star game, because that's when, like, it's perfect.
01:17:47 Speaker_07
Super Bowl happens, NBA All-Star game, okay, now I can start paying attention to other things, but now they're on a lot more national TV games, and so I can't avoid them. And so, yeah, I do have some doubt, but I am an optimist overall.
01:18:00 Speaker_07
I do trust Edwards. I do trust Finch. I trust him.
01:18:03 Speaker_09
So are you rooting against Towns, like a scoring lover, and he's on a new team? You're just like, I hope that guy, Goes two for 14 every night?
01:18:10 Speaker_07
I wouldn't say it's rooting against, but I would just say, you know, Knicks fans get ready for some bad fouls at the worst times. And get ready for some frustrating... You're in the honeymoon phase.
01:18:22 Speaker_07
Get ready for some frustrating turnovers where you're like, weren't you a coach's kid? Yeah. You know, get ready for those on top of the moments of brilliance where you watch one of the best offensive big men you'll ever see. Most skilled guys. Yeah.
01:18:34 Speaker_07
But yeah, he's a very frustrating player. I'll tell you, Carl, I've I've had some swear words occur on Anthony Talents and myself while watching him.
01:18:43 Speaker_09
Nate Tice, great to see you. You can read and follow Nate through the whole Yahoo Sports Network. Great to see you. Thanks for being here on Drake May Island with me.
01:18:54 Speaker_07
Thanks for having me. I'll look over at your yard. Let me know if you ever need sugar.
01:19:02 Speaker_09
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That's betterhelp.com slash Bill Simmons, H-E-L-P, betterhelp.com slash Bill Simmons. Valid for new U.S. customers only. This episode is brought to you by State Farm.
01:19:41 Speaker_09
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01:20:09 Speaker_09
Availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by state. All right. We're bringing house back to do million dollar picks.
01:20:18 Speaker_09
But before we do that, it's time for today's player bundle segment presented by our friends at state farmhouse.
01:20:23 Speaker_02
Yeah.
01:20:24 Speaker_09
Tough to crown the best play in football history. No one can deny the magic when the right two players work together. to pull off the unexpected.
01:20:33 Speaker_09
Like for me, Brady and Edelman during the comeback against the Seahawks that culminated in the Malcolm Butler game. Little Edelman, Brady magic. What do you have for in Washington history?
01:20:43 Speaker_05
It's got to be, it's got to involve John Riggins. It's got to involve, uh, Joe Theismann, Joe Theismann handed off to John Riggins, Superbowl 17, 1983. The, there we go. That's the one.
01:21:00 Speaker_09
I remember as a kid, John Riggins, who everyone was saying was a character. And when we were kids, we didn't know what that meant, but it could have gone in a variety of directions.
01:21:11 Speaker_09
But one of the reasons he was a character was he got the Mohawk haircut once, remember? Years before on another team.
01:21:19 Speaker_05
He also told the Supreme Court justice to loosen up.
01:21:24 Speaker_09
He also did that. He was a true 80s character and also had a little synergy with Joe Heisman. You know what else is better together? Building your home and auto insurance with the personal price plan from State Farm.
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The personal price plan, which you call the place so you can choose the right coverage at a price that's right for you. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan.
01:21:47 Speaker_09
Like a good neighbor, State Farm, is there, prices are based on rating plans that vary by state, coverage options are selected by the customer, availability, amount of discounts, and savings and eligibility vary by state.
01:22:02 Speaker_09
Alright, we're gonna talk some million dollar picks. I'm still upset about what happened last week. We basically split last week.
01:22:10 Speaker_09
And one of the reasons we, even though I felt like we were all over the slate, uh, and we couldn't figure out a good way to bet on the lions. So we did the lines first half lines game that loss.
01:22:21 Speaker_06
Yeah.
01:22:22 Speaker_09
We really liked the Dolphins, and we tried to get cute. We did Dolphins plus four and a half with the over 42 and a half. And of course, they just figured out a way to not get to 40 points in that game. I don't know what the Rams are doing.
01:22:36 Speaker_09
So we lost those two, but we hit Eagles Chargers tees, we had Steelers Washington, we had Cards Jets. I feel like I have a nice feel for the slate, and I like this week. And I don't know, do you wanna do Chiefs Bills last or first?
01:22:51 Speaker_05
Let's do it first. Let's go ahead and just, you know, sort of crush this because I'm having a hard time with this game. I'm going to confess to you right off the time. it feels like a bill spot to me.
01:23:04 Speaker_05
It feels like a great spot for the bills at home coming off of the last two seasons, regular season wins against the chiefs.
01:23:15 Speaker_05
Um, you know, it, it, it, it matters now look with where the bills are with only two losses, it's kind of crucial in terms of the seating for the AFC. So that would be the argument for the Chiefs going all out here.
01:23:31 Speaker_05
The Chiefs are not walking in here looking to concede anything to the Bills, but I don't know. It just feels like a Bill spot to me.
01:23:43 Speaker_09
As in a Bills minus two and a half, you'd want to bet that spot and bet against Patrick Holmes as an underdog. No, his what is he? Thirteen one and one as an underdog career.
01:23:54 Speaker_05
No, under no circumstances am I betting against Patrick Mahomes. All right, I just wanted to make sure.
01:23:58 Speaker_09
I thought you, I didn't know if you were a buzz house or I just did heroin house. Cause there's no way we're betting it's Patrick Mahomes.
01:24:05 Speaker_05
No, no, no, no, no chance. Absolutely no chance.
01:24:08 Speaker_09
So I do think it's probably going to be a close game. And I was looking at a couple of spots to bump that from a plus two and a half to either a plus three and a half or a plus four and a half. I think the chiefs can also win.
01:24:21 Speaker_09
Of course, of course they can. I'm just like, I'm saying like we could just bet the money line. But the bills, it's a more important game for them for nine different reasons. That's what I think. And that part worries me.
01:24:36 Speaker_09
I wonder if the Chiefs a month from now when they have all their weapons back will be a slightly different thing. But I just like the football matchup for them.
01:24:43 Speaker_09
with the type of defense the Bills have versus what the Chiefs have just been good at are these long drives, third and fours, third and sevens, just moving the chains, moving the chains.
01:24:55 Speaker_09
And I think you can do that against the, and then go deep on them. I think the fact that Baltimore looked so good against that Buffalo D that time, I don't think that's, not nothing.
01:25:05 Speaker_09
Like when they went against a really good quarterback, they got kind of torched.
01:25:09 Speaker_05
So, yeah, what scares me, like inside the X's and the O's is how hurt Buffalo is at the receiver position. And if they try and establish the run, then you're, then you're in trouble because the Chiefs have a dominant run defense.
01:25:26 Speaker_09
Dolan Kincaid might not play. And even if he plays, he's hurt. Amar Cooper's hurt. I don't know what's gonna, we're taping this on a Thursday. I don't think this is the right version of the Bills team.
01:25:38 Speaker_09
Because I think, realistically, you need to get to 27 points to beat this Chiefs team. Make them put up points back. But anyway, there's a couple things I have with Chiefs plus three and a half or Chiefs plus four and a half tied to the Lions.
01:25:54 Speaker_05
Let me ask you this before you do it. Why aren't we just auto teasing the chiefs taking the cheese from two and a half up to eight and a half?
01:26:02 Speaker_09
I looked at that. Couldn't really find the second team that I felt awesome about. Like you suggested the dolphins. I don't trust the Dolphins. I don't trust this Jockey Mike McDaniel. I don't want to put him in a tease.
01:26:15 Speaker_09
I'll confess I've had some misgivings of my own self. Like with Tua trying to tackle that dude on the interception and it seems like he got hit in the head. I just don't want any part of that. So one of the things I was thinking was,
01:26:29 Speaker_09
You could take the Chiefs to plus four and a half. You can do the Detroit first half game bet against the Jaguars who they're favored by 13 and a half against Mac Jones. That's minus one or two.
01:26:39 Speaker_09
You could do Chiefs plus three and a half Lions minus two and a half against the Jags. That's minus one 19 basically. Maybe that's like that one by that extra half point. Lions just have to win by three.
01:26:51 Speaker_05
Yeah. Okay.
01:26:53 Speaker_09
Is that John's going to win in Detroit? Nope. No, sir. No, he is not. He's not winning. Okay. So we'll mark that down. Next one. Both of us like the Broncos are home for the Falcons and this line is under three and it's a gift from the gods.
01:27:10 Speaker_09
Denver's defense. First yards per play. Second and sacks. Third and QB hits their top 10 against the run and the pass Atlanta's defense. 32nd in sacks, 31st in QB hits, 24th against the pass, 28th against third down. Here's my point.
01:27:35 Speaker_09
I think Denver's D can chase Kirk a little bit. make some plays, and I think Bo Nix is gonna have time to throw, and he feels like he's getting a little bit better every week. Nate Tice talked about it. He's turned into like he's a serviceable starter.
01:27:49 Speaker_09
They can run the ball. I like this rookie that's gonna play for them that everybody's grabbing, including in our keeper league, I grabbed him. Esteen, Estein, whatever his name is. Seems like they're excited about him, but I think they can run the ball.
01:28:02 Speaker_09
I don't think the Falcons are good. How about that?
01:28:06 Speaker_05
Not only do I share this opinion, I think the Broncos, I'm gonna be looking at some alt lines to lay. To lay for Denver. Well, no, I'm gonna lay extra to get some juice on it for Denver, because I think they might beat the hell out of Atlanta.
01:28:21 Speaker_05
It's Atlanta, you know, to Denver, the altitude, it's outdoors, so the version of the Atlanta offense that has been successful, the wins that they've collected, That's not going to be.
01:28:34 Speaker_05
And I just think this Denver defense is going to be getting up the field and into Kirk Cousins and making him uncomfortable. And Bo Nix has shown us, you know, he's got a string of over 200 yard games and confident. Yeah. A couple of touchdowns.
01:28:52 Speaker_05
I mean, I think it's a, it's a great spot for Denver. Plus Sean Payton's not going to lose three straight games. I mean, they, they lost a Baltimore fair enough. They lost to the chiefs in a game. They had one until the last play of the game.
01:29:05 Speaker_09
So the chiefs cheated. Let's be honest. What the hell was that? Have you seen some of the internet videos of that? Are we allowed to put 19 guys on one side of the line and just knock the left guard flying backwards with seven guys?
01:29:18 Speaker_09
Thought we outlawed that.
01:29:20 Speaker_05
That's the A-side team right there. That's the Chiefs, that's the A-side team.
01:29:25 Speaker_09
Atlanta on the road, they've had four road games so far. We too Philly, game was over, Philly fucked it up and Atlanta scored at the end one by one. Carolina, they killed. Tampa barely won, easily could've lost, and then New Orleans they lost.
01:29:43 Speaker_09
You go look at through their wins and it's just like, they easily could be three, they have six wins. They also easily could be like three and seven. Three plays away from being a three and seven team. I just don't think they're impressive.
01:29:59 Speaker_09
I thought that New Orleans loss was awful.
01:30:01 Speaker_05
I don't think there's any difference between, um, the, the, these two teams in terms of, uh, you know, power ranking and all the rest of it. I prefer Denver. Me too.
01:30:12 Speaker_09
I think Denver's like, Oh, sorry. You lost the Baltimore and Kansas city. Like I, I still feel like they're back weeks. Yeah. They're the good, bad team. I'm in on Denver. So Denver minus two and a half. We'll mark that.
01:30:26 Speaker_09
I hesitate to bring this one up, but Colts plus three and a half against the jets.
01:30:34 Speaker_09
It feels like a unique chance to bet against a downtrodden Jets team that has sucked the soul and life and spirit out of the fans, out of the city, out of the players and the team.
01:30:50 Speaker_09
The Rodgers thing, Tim Keown had a thing on ESPN, he had a whole story about the last four weeks of Rodgers. You read that and it's like, this is bad. And it was not a lot of smoking gun stories, but it's just like, this sucks. This is gone.
01:31:05 Speaker_09
It couldn't have gone worse. Their season's over. I don't think they like playing with Rodgers. They built the whole team around him and he's banged up and probably broken. And then you have the Colts who are getting points.
01:31:19 Speaker_09
The Jets, they're 30th rushing. The Colts, that's the one way to beat them is to run on them. The Jets are bad at running the ball, as anyone who has Brees Hall knows. I just feel like the Colts can get on track, but Anthony Richardson is starting.
01:31:36 Speaker_05
So here's the thing, and I do want to lean into the Colts, but it would be with caution. There is a bet out there that I think is a tremendous bet, and it's Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards. I think he might run for a hundred yards.
01:31:56 Speaker_05
Like I'm not, I'm not suggesting anybody wager on that, but I think that the commitment that Shane Steichen is, is going to make to getting Richardson's confidence back. The thing that he is best at is moving the football with his legs.
01:32:13 Speaker_05
They are going to give that man the green light. And the thing that we have seen with this Jets defense again and again and again, there's, they are not tough. that is not a tough defense.
01:32:26 Speaker_05
They don't like to, to, to take on a big, what we saw in terms of the Cardinals running the ball right down the jets throat, the 50 yard play, you know, right, right at, right before halftime with the Cardinals against the jets.
01:32:42 Speaker_05
That's, that's the identity of this jets defense. I love the Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards. That's my favorite. One of my favorite bets of the weekend.
01:32:51 Speaker_09
So they're plus three and a half. What have I offered you? Colts minus two and a half parlayed with Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards is plus 366. I mean, am I allowed to say fuck yes on this podcast?
01:33:11 Speaker_05
I mean, you know the answer to that.
01:33:13 Speaker_09
What are you talking about?
01:33:15 Speaker_06
I love that one.
01:33:17 Speaker_09
The other way to do that is just do the Colts money line plus 176. Plus 309.
01:33:25 Speaker_05
Where do you think Aaron Rodgers is going to go in the Trump administration? He's going to be the ambassador. Where is he going to be the ambassador? He's going to be the ambassador of Ascalusa. To Mexico? Is he going to South America?
01:33:43 Speaker_09
Turning into my dad. Ayahuasca? Ayahuasca! Ayahuasca, he's gonna be the ambassador of Ayahuasca.
01:33:49 Speaker_05
Or he could be the ambassador of... Penascalusa. They could send him to Tahiti. Where's he wanna go? He's definitely gonna get a job in the administration.
01:34:03 Speaker_09
So Colts plus three and a half with Richardson over 38 and a half is plus 209. Let's do that, that's fun. Plus three and a half, it's a field goal game.
01:34:14 Speaker_05
Don't you think that's fun?
01:34:15 Speaker_09
Yeah, that's a good one. Plus every time Richardson, the fun thing about that is it is fun to watch him run. You sure you don't want to do the plus three 66 where they win by two and a half to it is small.
01:34:28 Speaker_05
You know, like we did last week, we did, we put 10 grand on some ridiculous, both the giants and somebody else to win. Oh, San Francisco that lost those, those two teams.
01:34:38 Speaker_09
All right. By the way, I don't feel like the Colts are that bad. I thought Flacco, and I thought it was the right move to start him. Flacco was terrible. It's officially over.
01:34:48 Speaker_09
I don't know what happened to him in the Browns for those five, six weeks, but he's back to being the Joe Flacco we remembered and loved betting against.
01:34:56 Speaker_05
I tried to do my Irsay impression on Monday, because I'm so on East Coast, on our East Coast Bias podcast. I'm a thousand percent positive that Irsay, after Richardson tapped out and said that in that press conference, he came downstairs and
01:35:13 Speaker_00
Get this guy, this guy, I can't have this guy. He's a quitter.
01:35:18 Speaker_09
Yeah, he just got back.
01:35:19 Speaker_00
I can't have a quitter running my team, Shane. You got to get this guy.
01:35:24 Speaker_05
And Shane's like, OK, OK, it's your team. It's your team. It wasn't the right football decision. It wasn't the right franchise decision.
01:35:34 Speaker_05
But they did what the owner wanted, and now we're back to the football plan, and Shane Steichen has the football plan, so we're doing the right thing here.
01:35:45 Speaker_09
Next one. I think we are in violent agreement. Chargers against the Bengals. Chargers laying minus one and a half. Bengals in a must-win spot, a very popular public team. Explosive offense, fourth passing. Burroughs been a fantasy god.
01:36:06 Speaker_09
And yet, I love the Chargers.
01:36:09 Speaker_05
Is this our argue pick? I don't know. The concern is Burrowdee's nuts. Burrowdee's nuts. He is on a heater. He's been incredible. And those weapons are unlike any weapons that the Chargers have seen to this point.
01:36:29 Speaker_09
Yeah, but we don't even know if Piggins is playing. it's still, he's got the red flag next to him. Believe me, I have him in fantasy.
01:36:38 Speaker_05
It's questionable. And they can't run the ball. The Bengals, they can't run the ball, cannot run the ball. This is a, this, this is the Bengal season because they can't, they are behind both the chargers and the Broncos.
01:36:51 Speaker_05
And if they lose to either one of these teams, that's it. Season's over. They can't climb.
01:36:55 Speaker_09
I take seasons not over. Why? I don't think it's over if they lose the game. Give me the rundown. I think nine wins is gonna get the seven seed in the AFC. Right now, they have four wins. They lose this Chargers game. They have at home Pittsburgh week 13.
01:37:19 Speaker_09
At Dallas, at Tennessee, those are gonna be two wins. Now we're at six. Home Cleveland, that's seven. They get to play Denver week 17. That's eight. And then they're at Pittsburgh week 18. So it's not necessary.
01:37:34 Speaker_09
They just have to split the Pittsburgh games, beat Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, Denver, and they get to nine wins.
01:37:40 Speaker_05
They need these T they need the charters and the Broncos both to fall off.
01:37:45 Speaker_09
They, they could take care of Denver by themselves in week 17. Look, it wouldn't be great if they lost this game. I'm not saying it would be, but, um,
01:37:55 Speaker_05
The reason I like the chargers is because very quietly, Herbert is healthy. He's throwing the ball downfield. They have vertical weapons. And Herbert is, speaking of being in his bag, there's a physicality to him. You forget that he's a tough SOB.
01:38:11 Speaker_05
He's 6'6". That big boy has played hurt a lot in his career. We've seen him take shots. and he's taking on the personality of Harbaugh a little bit. I like this little bit of a swagger that I'm seeing out of them. I like the idea of the Chargers here.
01:38:31 Speaker_05
I want to just be cautious. That's all.
01:38:34 Speaker_09
They have six wins. They're playing. But this is the hardest part of their schedule. Home since the home Baltimore at Atlanta at Casey. So realistically, they probably have to go to and to to really feel good about the playoffs. But
01:38:46 Speaker_09
This is this is where I've landed. I Think the line is two points off. I think they should be three and a half point favorites Wow What have the Bengals done to deserve anything? They're poorly coached Their defense is awful They have four sucks.
01:39:03 Speaker_05
They have four wins against teams that if you add up all their victories Yeah, not nine victories. There are four wins that come against teams with nine total wins their defense
01:39:14 Speaker_09
31st in the red zone. Feels worse. 29th on 3rd down. 27th on 1st down. Givin' em up. 23rd against the Pat. I just think, I think the Chargers are legit good. And then I'll throw this at you. On one sideline, Jim Harbaugh. On the other side, Zach Taylor.
01:39:35 Speaker_09
I just think they have the advantages. And this is going to be a rare Chargers home game where there's not going to be 30,000 of the other team's fans in the building. Cause it's not like there's going to be 30,000 bagels fans there.
01:39:46 Speaker_09
I think people like this Chargers team. There's an energy around them right now. And, uh, and I think Herbert's playing great and they could run the ball. I trust their receivers. Their receivers are getting open than third down.
01:39:57 Speaker_09
So I think to me, this game reminds me of Arizona jets last week where I just feel like the lines off. I thought last week, I thought that Cardinals line was, was idiotic. And I think this line's idiotic.
01:40:08 Speaker_05
The Chargers also have, uh, Greg Roman, uh, in, in their mix who has all that experience from his time with, with Baltimore going up against this, this Bengals team, you know, going up against this Bengals defense. Yeah.
01:40:24 Speaker_05
I, I, I like the, I like the Chargers.
01:40:26 Speaker_09
This seems like a very public, bet where people look at it and they go, well, the Bengals need the game and Burrows playing well, so they're going to get it. And I don't think that's a good reason. The charges are really good football team.
01:40:38 Speaker_09
I don't think they're, I don't think they're on that chiefs, Ravens bills level, but I think they're a notch below and I think they'd be a really dangerous seven point underdog in a round one playoff game.
01:40:48 Speaker_05
How about this, I was looking for a possible angle to tease the Bengals, but then you look at the Chargers wins, they're all by margin. All of the Chargers wins have been at least seven points.
01:41:01 Speaker_09
Their defense gets better as the game goes along.
01:41:03 Speaker_05
They choke the life out of you.
01:41:04 Speaker_09
Yeah. All right. All right, so here's the game I really want to dive into. Ravens-Steelers, it's in Pittsburgh. Ravens are favored by three. Steelers are seven and two. Mike Tomlin is a home underdog.
01:41:18 Speaker_09
Whole bunch of reasons to be like, ah, of course, we've taken the Steelers all year. I think we've taken them six times at Million Dollar Picks. We have a bunch of futures with them.
01:41:27 Speaker_09
The thing that worries me, House, this isn't the type of team that should succeed against Baltimore. Because Baltimore, 32nd against the pass, right? You want to throw on them. You want to do what Borough did last week.
01:41:42 Speaker_09
Pittsburgh wants to win like they beat you guys in Washington last week. where they wanna run the ball, pound the ball, control the clock, then every once in a while, throw deep down one of the sidelines.
01:41:54 Speaker_09
But when with defense, that's not how you beat Baltimore. You beat Baltimore by throwing the ball at them, because they suck on pass defense. And yeah, Pittsburgh's 26th, but they're passing offense.
01:42:07 Speaker_09
Their defense, their top five in a whole bunch of stuff. First down, run, red zone, hits, turnovers. But Baltimore's offense is first in basically anything. everything.
01:42:16 Speaker_09
And it just feels to me like Baltimore is going to be able to control this game and maybe they'll end up in Pittsburgh splitting the series. But I don't like the spot for Pittsburgh. I think this is a bad matchup for them. So how do you see it?
01:42:31 Speaker_05
So you, we just need to understand what we're walking into, right? Because underdogs in this series, you know, which other team is the underdog 10 one-on-one against the spread nine and three straight up in the last 12 batches.
01:42:45 Speaker_05
So just that each of the last five times that the Steelers have been underdogs, they have won outright. And over history, these two guys, Tomlin and Harbaugh, the underdog, they faced each other 32 times.
01:43:03 Speaker_05
The underdog is 23, six and three against the spread. It's just insane. Pittsburgh, the underdog, when the line is three points or more, 18, two and three between these two guys. So that's what you're up against when you're walking into this. But
01:43:27 Speaker_05
Look, here's the thing. I'm not going to make the whole handicap about one guy. It's just a big deal for Pittsburgh to not have Alex Highsmith because the, what he brings to them pass rush wise. I got it out.
01:43:43 Speaker_09
A pass, pass, rush, rush Collinsworth. Yeah. He brought a balance. Right now that balance because we've seen it where we've there's been guys missing help.
01:43:54 Speaker_05
It was missing for a couple games And it felt like they were back and now some they're not back anymore There is not a defense on Earth that can slow down this Ravens team it it seems so you have to believe There's a significant advantage, which is crazy for the Steelers at in special teams and
01:44:17 Speaker_05
We, we, you know, it's a rarity to talk about Baltimore being behind anybody else in special teams, but they are highly mediocre, highly average because Justin Tucker's fallen off a little bit.
01:44:28 Speaker_05
Their punter shanked a punt against the Raiders and that is how the Raiders came back in week two. Uh, and the Steelers are doing what they do. I mean, they're, they're third DVO a, uh, on, uh, maybe it's a stay away. I'd like a teaser leg.
01:44:47 Speaker_05
To me, I would tease the Steelers up to nine and tease the chiefs up to eight and a half and to have, and just have these, these classic fist fight, almost like Jake Paul and Mike Tyson brought a classic heavyweight brawl and make sure you're getting enough points on both sides of it.
01:45:08 Speaker_05
And then just let those, these teams do what they do, which is play close games. and rest peacefully with your winnings.
01:45:17 Speaker_09
Yeah.
01:45:18 Speaker_05
Okay. I don't feel great about it.
01:45:20 Speaker_09
Maybe it's a stay away.
01:45:21 Speaker_05
Okay. It's probably a stay away because we're trying to talk ourselves into the Ravens and every single piece of data over 20 years. Right.
01:45:31 Speaker_09
And meanwhile, Stewart's plus three at home is exactly the type of bet that I would do without blinking.
01:45:37 Speaker_06
Right.
01:45:38 Speaker_09
I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball on the Ravens at all. So now we're just putting the game in Russ's hands. You know what the thing to do? Baltimore's crappy pass defense.
01:45:48 Speaker_05
If you really, really, really want to bet the Ravens, make sure that Kyle Hamilton, check on a daily basis, how's Kyle Hamilton doing? What are the reports?
01:45:58 Speaker_05
What are the reports about how he's feeling, how he's doing, how does he look, is he a go, is he not a go? If you have to bet the Ravens, that's the key.
01:46:07 Speaker_09
So you really like Browns plus one and a half against the Saints?
01:46:11 Speaker_05
I love it. I, I it's, it's the Jamis return game. Jamis back to New Orleans, going right to commander's palace and getting to sit down with two dozen oysters. It's the Browns off the bi-week here's, here's the distinguishing factor.
01:46:26 Speaker_05
Look at the Browns injury report. I'll tell you quickly, there are no names on it. The Browns it's the healthiest. This Brown's team has been all season long and you know, coming into the season, there was reasonable optimism for the Browns.
01:46:44 Speaker_05
I think their wind total was eight and a half. Um, and so that's a team and the strength was supposed to be in the trenches for this Browns team, their defensive, uh, front seven, their offensive line.
01:46:55 Speaker_05
Well, their offensive line was basically hurt all the way up until this last, you know, two weeks. And they, because of the way the season has gone, they traded as area Smith in the last handful of weeks.
01:47:07 Speaker_05
But, I think it's just the Saints team, they got the new coach bounce. They got rid of Dennis Allen.
01:47:15 Speaker_09
They won one for the Clogger.
01:47:16 Speaker_05
That's the best. It's an amazing run for coaches today. The Cloggers want to know. The Sunday night Bill Simmons podcast with Cousin Sal. Between middle coach. Yeah, we've had a good run of coach Dick Dams. Yeah, so the Clogger guys win. Yeah.
01:47:34 Speaker_09
I think the Saints are terrible.
01:47:36 Speaker_05
They are terrible. Are they going to be able to throw three bombs to Marquez Valdez? I can't even say the names again. I don't think so.
01:47:47 Speaker_09
Can I read you some really fun Cleveland offense versus new Orleans defense matchups for this game? It's going to be hilarious. Cleveland's offense, 32nd and yards per play. New Orleans defense 32nd and yards per play.
01:48:00 Speaker_06
Yeah.
01:48:01 Speaker_09
Cleveland's offense 28th pass. New Orleans defense 29th pass. There we go. Cleveland's offense 28th with the run. New Orleans defense 27 and then Cleveland's offense 32nd hits to the quarterback. So last, they've given up the most quarterback hits.
01:48:19 Speaker_09
New Orleans, 27th in hitting the quarterback. So this is like the worst possible offense against the worst possible defense, basically. But as you said, Browns are healthier. Nick Chubb, we had a bye week last week. It was finally starting.
01:48:34 Speaker_09
Maybe this is like the Nick Chubb game. Jameis going to New Orleans. I kind of like the Browns. I'm with you.
01:48:39 Speaker_05
Isn't that fun? Let's do it. Plus the line is so crazy. Yeah, the Saints being favored, the Cloggers favored. Look at the price. It's like even money to take the favored team. And you have to lay crazy juice if you want to take the Browns.
01:49:02 Speaker_05
It's like minus 125 to get the one and a half points.
01:49:06 Speaker_09
Yeah, why is that? Yeah, they're minus 122 plus one. So this is a money line bet then?
01:49:16 Speaker_06
Yes, yes, clearly.
01:49:18 Speaker_09
Browns minus 108. Okay. That sounds good. All right, I think we have our, was there anything else you liked or no? That was it. That's probably my favorite bet, the Browns, because it's so dumb and hilarious.
01:49:32 Speaker_09
I think the Rams-Pats line is like a point and a half too high toward the Rams. It's Rams minus four now, but I don't want to bet it. And I also don't know why we don't have money on the Packers. Vegas is the only number.
01:49:46 Speaker_09
Minus 5.5 against Chicago but it almost looks like a trap game. Alright, that's good. So million dollar picks. Alright, I have a handle on it. Let me ask you this. If I told you we could do Chiefs plus 3.5 parlayed with Lions minus 2.5 minus 119.
01:50:07 Speaker_09
And we do Chiefs plus 8.5, Steelers plus 9, Tees. Would you want to do both of those or just pick one? Let's do both. We don't have to do enormous amounts. All right. It's time. Million dollar picks week 11. Last week we lost $10,000 house.
01:50:34 Speaker_09
I don't know how we did it. It felt like we were all over the slate. We're still up with $768,000 for the year. first bet Broncos home against the wildly overrated Falcons. This is only a minus two and a half.
01:50:49 Speaker_09
We think this gets to three by Sunday, right? Broncos by three on Sunday.
01:50:53 Speaker_05
For sure. But we're, we're positive. Uh, uh, expected. We, we beat the closing line value here on million dollar picks.
01:51:00 Speaker_09
Yeah, we do it on Thursday nights. We're grabbing it early. We love the Broncos defense, not sold to the Falcons at all. They could easily be a three wind team. And, uh, Sean Payton, I just, them at home, Bo Nix showing some signs of life.
01:51:15 Speaker_09
They got three running backs going. Broncos minus two nap. That's our first one. Second one is one that house liked Colts plus three and a half against the Jets.
01:51:26 Speaker_09
Just cause if we can bet against the Jets every week, we're just going to do it until Rogers get shut down. That's right. Anthony Richardson's in this game. House, you had a theory about what staking is going to do with Richardson.
01:51:38 Speaker_05
I really think that they're going to put the ball in his hands and let him have the green light to, to, to run early, to run off and, and just like reestablish himself, reestablish the team's confidence in him. He's a tough guy.
01:51:53 Speaker_05
He's going to show them that he's a tough guy. He's going to get the job done. And ambassador Rogers can't wait to go off to his exotic destination.
01:52:04 Speaker_09
So we, uh, that was plus two Oh nine. Colts plus three and a half with Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards plus two and nine. We're gonna put a hundred K in that one. Chargers minus one and a half against the Bengals. I love this bet.
01:52:23 Speaker_09
I think the line should be Chargers minus three and a half. The Bengals, people are just like, oh, the Bengals, they need the game. They can throw the ball. I am in on the Chargers. I think they are a really good, complete, well-coached team.
01:52:33 Speaker_09
They can run it. They can throw it. They have a top five or six defense. And I think the Bengals are really one-dimensional. They make dumb turnovers. They do stupid fourth and two and they go for it. They get stuffed. Their defense is awful.
01:52:48 Speaker_09
And I think the Chargers win this game outright. So we're putting $200K on them and the Broncos minus $2.5K as well. And then we're going to put $200K in the Browns minus $108K against the Clogger and the New Orleans Saints. Make the case really fast.
01:53:04 Speaker_05
tough spot for the saints with the injuries that they have. The Browns are coming off of by with the clean bill of health.
01:53:10 Speaker_05
Jamis Winston back to the scene of, of many crimes, none of which had been reported, but he gets to get back to commander palace. We, we love the Browns offensive line, defensive front seven. They're going to put pressure on their car.
01:53:26 Speaker_05
No receivers left except for MBS. Good luck to the saints.
01:53:30 Speaker_09
A lot of pick six misdemeanors and a lot of picks and crossing route misdemeanors by Jameis. Last but not least, we're going to do something a little different. Put a little more on this Chiefs game because it's Chiefs, Bills, Chiefs.
01:53:44 Speaker_06
Yeah.
01:53:45 Speaker_09
Getting two and a half and we're going to tweak this in two different ways for $150,000 each. First, Chiefs up to plus three and a half. We're going to buy a point. and combine it with the Lions minus two and a half against the Jaguars and Mac Jones.
01:53:58 Speaker_09
The Lions are huge favorites in Detroit, so we're gonna use that. That's minus 119. Then we're gonna tease the Chiefs to plus eight and a half. with the Steelers, where we went back and forth, we have to put money on this game somehow.
01:54:11 Speaker_09
We've decided this is a touchdown game one way or the other because we are better for so long. We realized, oh, it's in Pittsburgh. Steelers are underdogs is a great spot for them. Let's just tease them to plus nine and enjoy it.
01:54:23 Speaker_09
So we're gonna put one hundred fifty thousand on both of those bets. And the case is it's the Chiefs The record is what, 27 and one and one as underdogs with Mahomes, 127. I don't know how many times he's covered it.
01:54:35 Speaker_09
He's only lost once in the Bills, home of the 13 seconds game. Bills are a little banged up. I just think the Chiefs have a better team. I think the line's insulting. I think Mahomes should be insulted. So we're putting bets on both of those. So to recap,
01:54:52 Speaker_09
200K on Broncos minus two and a half. Browns minus 108 to win outright. Chargers minus one and a half. Then we're doing the Joe House parlay. Colts plus three and a half with Richardson 38.5 rush. 100K to win plus 209 on that. And then 250K bets.
01:55:11 Speaker_09
Chiefs plus three and a half parlayed with the Lions minus two and a half. And then the Chiefs plus eight and a half, Steelers plus nine as a tease. But before we go, I have to ask you this, Joe House. Do we do the Cousin Sal Special with the Steelers?
01:55:26 Speaker_09
Ravens win first half. Steelers win game. Nine to one on FanDuel. It's hit three times this year already.
01:55:34 Speaker_05
How could we not? It's hit three times already. Criminal negligence for us to sit here with this opportunity, this marquee game, and not get in on this Cousin Sal Special. It's a must-have here on the Million Dollar Prix.
01:55:47 Speaker_09
Little 25K sprinkling?
01:55:49 Speaker_05
Yes. have to do it.
01:55:51 Speaker_09
Mandatory 25 K on the cousin, Sal Steelers parlay Steelers special. What's he calling it?
01:55:59 Speaker_05
He got to come up with a great name for it. I mean, Brad, he's a, he's a master of branding. We haven't come up with a special fine. Great. The CSS. There we go.
01:56:10 Speaker_09
25 K on that is nine to one on Fando. It's hit three times already this year. It'd be hilarious if it hit again. Those are the million dollar picks. for week 11. House, buzzed house, semi-drunk house, thanks for staying up late with us.
01:56:23 Speaker_09
Thanks for not offending us. Good luck with your C cup parlay. Would you call it the C cup booster?
01:56:29 Speaker_05
Well, you didn't get the C cup profit booster, but I'll live with the C cup parlay. I'm going to go to bed now and dream about where Ambassador Rogers is going to land. Good to see you, house.
01:56:42 Speaker_09
All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Joe House. Thanks to Nate Tice. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti. As always, don't forget you can watch clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons channel on YouTube.
01:56:54 Speaker_09
And I will be back on Sunday night with The Cuz. We'll be going live on YouTube as well.
01:57:00 Speaker_08
You can watch it as we do it if you want, or you can just wait to listen to it later that night or the next day. Enjoy the weekend. I will see you Sunday night.
01:57:15 Speaker_02
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01:57:34 Speaker_09
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