Part 1: Bill’s NBA Six-Pack. Plus Peter Schrager on the Jets’ Downfall, Buffalo’s Leap, and DRAKE MAYE. AI transcript and summary - episode of podcast The Bill Simmons Podcast

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Episode: Part 1: Bill’s NBA Six-Pack. Plus Peter Schrager on the Jets’ Downfall, Buffalo’s Leap, and DRAKE MAYE.

Author: The Ringer
Duration: 01:31:01

Episode Shownotes

In Part 1 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons runs through six NBA topics, including the scrappy Clippers, the fourth place Rockets, and the new NBA All-Star game format (1:26). He is then joined by Peter Schrager of NFL Network and Fox Sports to discuss the NFL season's

biggest surprises, like the dysfunctional Jets and the surging Bills (24:38). They also admire the impressive rookie QB class, try to figure out the NFC West, predict future head-coaching vacancies, and more (42:22). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Peter Schrager Producers: Kyle Crichton and Steve Ceruti The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Summary

In Part 1 of 'The Bill Simmons Podcast,' Bill Simmons discusses key topics in the NBA, including the Clippers' adaptation without Paul George, the defensive strengths of the Houston Rockets, and critiques of the Miami Heat's recent draft decisions. Following this, Peter Schrager joins Simmons to analyze the NFL's unexpected season, focusing on the Jets' struggles, the Bills' resurgence, and the dynamics of the rookie quarterback class. The conversation blends insights from both leagues, emphasizing team chemistry, coaching decisions, and future prospects.

Go to PodExtra AI's episode page (Part 1: Bill’s NBA Six-Pack. Plus Peter Schrager on the Jets’ Downfall, Buffalo’s Leap, and DRAKE MAYE.) to play and view complete AI-processed content: summary, mindmap, topics, takeaways, transcript, keywords and highlights.

Full Transcript

00:00:02 Speaker_02
Coming up, a two-part pod. This is part one. We're gonna talk some basketball, talk some football next.

00:00:09 Speaker_01
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00:00:33 Speaker_01
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00:00:38 Speaker_02
This episode is brought to you by Uber Reserve. You know, it's a game changer for travel. Booking my ride in advance to the airport with Uber Reserve. Uber Reserve makes it easy to plan my whole trip. I just did this.

00:00:51 Speaker_02
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00:01:01 Speaker_02
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00:01:15 Speaker_02
We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed it, we put up a new Rewatchables on Monday. We did the replacements. You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well.

00:01:25 Speaker_02
You can watch all the videos and clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. This is going to be a two-part podcast. We just had too much content for you today.

00:01:34 Speaker_02
So part one, I'm doing an NBA six pack at the top, and then our old friend Peter Schrager is coming on to talk about all of the NFL, things we're super surprised by, things we're delighted by, where we stand after 11 weeks, even some coach stuff.

00:01:49 Speaker_02
So that's gonna be part one. And then part two is going to be Chris Ryan and Joe House and I talking about the Sixers and what the hell is going on there. And then House and I are gonna do some million dollar picks.

00:02:02 Speaker_02
So we're gonna try to get both of these parts up as soon as we possibly can. So that's the plan. This is part one. First, our friends from Pearl Jam! All right, we're going to start with an NBA six pack. I haven't done this in a while.

00:02:35 Speaker_02
I haven't talked to NBA in over a week, which is my fault. I'm not perfect. I have six things that I wanted to throw at you.

00:02:43 Speaker_02
None of them have to do with the Philadelphia 76ers because we're going to be talking about them later today with Chris Ryan and Joe House. First thing. The Clippers without Paul George.

00:02:52 Speaker_02
So I took the under as a lock before the season over under podcast with the Clippers, 37 and a half. I didn't see how they were gonna have enough scoring, which is James Harden, Norman Powell.

00:03:02 Speaker_02
I didn't understand why they didn't give Paul George four years max. Like you're already all in with this Kawhi contract. Why not just go all the way in on your team? Well, what did they know? I remember mentioning this on one of the podcasts.

00:03:17 Speaker_02
It's like, hmm, Balmer, guy who just spends money like absolute fucking crazy. And this Paul George thing was too rich for his blood. What do they know? You have an athlete on your team in this case for five full years, half a decade.

00:03:32 Speaker_02
and your trainers see stuff, your coaching staff sees stuff. Something about it made them a little wary of committing to a guy in his mid-30s who had had a major, awful broken leg, some other knee stuff.

00:03:46 Speaker_02
Something made them go, this time it's too rich for our blood, which is interesting because they did this with Blake Griffin when they signed Blake Griffin to a Big Macs deal. and then traded him like four months later.

00:03:58 Speaker_02
And it was like, oh my God, they traded Blake Griffin. What are they doing? And then what happened? Blake Griffin's body broke down within two years. You watch Paul George. Now he's hyperextended the same knee twice.

00:04:09 Speaker_02
So you could say, oh, that's a little fluky. When he came back from the injury, between those two injuries, he didn't look great. And if you're a Sixers fan staring at that max contract, I think you're in a complete panic.

00:04:21 Speaker_02
But here's why you can't like celebrate too much with the Clippers. They did offer Paul George three years for 150. So it's not like they were like, we're out. We want no part of the Paul George business. They kind of wanted it at their price.

00:04:33 Speaker_02
What was smart was when they had a chance to sign and trade him, which is something that teams have done a lot in the past, where they was like, well, we have this asset, we got to turn it, and all of a sudden they're taking these contracts back.

00:04:45 Speaker_02
They were smart enough not to do that. They didn't do it with Golden State, had some possible trades, Denver they supposedly talked to. So they turned the Paul George money into Derek Jones and Chris Dunn, 45 million for three years.

00:04:56 Speaker_02
So that's about one third of what Paul George would have cost. And then Nick Platoon, one year, 4.9. It looks like he might be washed. But they have the ability now to slap contracts for bigger deals, slap them together, whatever.

00:05:09 Speaker_02
And the big bet was, can Norman Powell shoulder some of this burden? And he actually has. So I've been watching them, because I've been rooting against them, because I love being right. And they're nine and seven. They've had a tough schedule.

00:05:21 Speaker_02
It's been like the opposite of a Lakers schedule. You know it's true, Lakers fans. You know this win streak, like you haven't played anybody. You know that's true, deep down.

00:05:30 Speaker_02
Clippers 9 and 7, they played Houston twice, they played Golden State twice, they played Phoenix twice, they played OKC, Sacramento, Orlando, and Denver. There's not nothing going on here. I'll tell you one other thing.

00:05:43 Speaker_02
I think the arena is really good. They played the Warriors last Monday and I really wanted to go and we had a Spotify thing, I couldn't go.

00:05:52 Speaker_02
And somebody who was there told me something, somebody that's worked for the team for a while, told me something that I thought was a great point.

00:05:58 Speaker_02
It was the first Warriors game the Clippers have had as a home game where the Warriors fans didn't drown out the Clipper fans. where it actually felt like a Clippers home game, and they ended up winning.

00:06:11 Speaker_02
It was a classic Clippers-Warriors game where the Warriors played that crap, the Clippers look great, then all of a sudden the Warriors are scrapping together, trying to win at the end, and they didn't.

00:06:18 Speaker_02
But whatever Balmer did with that arena, which is really cool, and the wall, and the fans close together, and trying to monitor some of the ticket stuff, it actually worked in that Warriors game.

00:06:28 Speaker_02
So I'm a little more bullish on the Clippers than I used to be. That's the first one. Speaking of the Warriors, It's a tiny one, second in the six pack. The D'Anthony Melton injury was a really, really secretly huge injury.

00:06:45 Speaker_02
There's been so many injuries this year, it kind of got lost in the shuffle, but he had really unlocked them. He was really good next to Curry. He was an excellent on-ball defender.

00:06:55 Speaker_02
a good shooter, they were fourth in defensive rating before he got hurt, and he was a great fit with Curry, and he hurt his knee, and it was like, ah.

00:07:02 Speaker_02
Then they said it was a sprained ACL, and then all of a sudden he's getting ACL surgery, and it just hurts them. They're not the same team.

00:07:09 Speaker_02
They've been trying to throw people in that spot, and we'll see how it goes with them, but he was the perfect fit, and it kind of exposed the secret issue with Clay the last couple years, where he kind of couldn't guard anybody. If you have Curry,

00:07:21 Speaker_02
Doesn't need to be totally protected because he's a really good off-ball defender, but you want somebody else taking that burden of going against the John Moran types night after night. Melton was doing it.

00:07:31 Speaker_02
I'm just watching it because I loved how the Warriors played the last time we did the Power Poll. I was talking about how I had them as a sleeper, but I really thought maybe they could be a real contender.

00:07:40 Speaker_02
And they still might be, but the Melton thing definitely hurts, so I didn't want to not mention that. Third thing for the six-pack, Houston. They have the look. I know the look, they have the look. Third defensive rating, 11th offense.

00:07:59 Speaker_02
The Terror Twins, Ahmed Thompson and Taries have been my, they're not the league pack, they're not like best Oscar winner, best actor. I'm not even positive they're best supporting actor, but there's something, I don't know what Oscar they would win.

00:08:15 Speaker_02
They come in and they flip these games. They just have so much athleticism and so much defense between those two. They're terrifying. It's a little like what Orlando had last year. It's a little like what OKC has sometimes.

00:08:29 Speaker_02
It's something to watch, and especially if you're gambling on games and you like player props and stuff. Watch when Houston goes against teams that have good swings. They played Indiana, Matherin, at eight points. They played Chicago, Levine had 15.

00:08:41 Speaker_02
They had back-to-backs against the Clippers. This is what really jumped out to me, because I actually watched those games. Harden was fucking useless against Houston, between Brooks and then the Terror Twins.

00:08:53 Speaker_02
You could kind of see him, like, I'm tapping out. I don't like this, I'm not having a good time. Harden and Powell in back-to-back games were 21 for 58, 12 free throw attempts total, and they only scored 60 points, and Houston swept those games.

00:09:07 Speaker_02
And I just think defensively, There's really something here. I don't even, I said this when we did the PowerPoll, I don't even think they know what their team has yet.

00:09:16 Speaker_02
Jabari Smith will have some games where he only plays like 22 minutes, only scores four points. He's a guy that if you're gonna say, who is not gonna be on this team in a year, maybe that's the guy, because I think he's a real asset.

00:09:28 Speaker_02
They were playing small ball five with him last year. He's only 9.7 million this year. He could be the focal point of a trade if they want to make a trade.

00:09:35 Speaker_02
They've already said publicly they don't want to make a trade, that they're happy to have the kind of what Orlando had last year, what OKC had two years ago of we're young, we're hungry, let's see where this goes, which I think is the right mentality.

00:09:48 Speaker_02
But they do have a lot of picks. They do have Jabari as the centerpiece of if you're actually getting a player back in the trade. So I'm just watching them and I'm watching them in general because I really like them.

00:09:58 Speaker_02
Tuesday night, Houston at Minnesota with the Terror Twins and Brooks going against Edwards is I think the league pass game of the year that is in Celtics-Cleveland, because I don't think that was a league pass game.

00:10:11 Speaker_02
But I want to see them go toe-to-toe with that Minnesota team. Houston, to me, is a top five team in the West. I'm taking them very seriously, and I love the Terror Twins. So that's my third thing. Fourth thing, just a question.

00:10:28 Speaker_02
Did heat culture die when they didn't get Dame? Because here's what's happened since. Remember, they had already drafted Hawkeyes, which is the last really smart heat moment we've had.

00:10:38 Speaker_02
Since then, the 2024 Knicks, last year's Knicks team, kind of stole their identity as the defense chemistry overachieving team. They had a terrible year. Riley got mad at Butler.

00:10:51 Speaker_02
The Rogier trade turned out to be kind of blah, and I'll admit, I like the Rogier trade for them. He was playing great for Charlotte. He's been kind of blah for them. I think he's averaging 13 points a game.

00:11:01 Speaker_02
There's times out there, he might be the Tobias Harris award, Rossellos joke about, oh, I didn't realize Terry Rogier was out there. He's had some moments like that. Bam's gone backwards.

00:11:11 Speaker_02
Now, I assume that's gonna turn around, but I'm just pointing out, he doesn't look like a top 15 player in the league. Nikoli Jovic, who they were all excited about, blah, blah, blah.

00:11:24 Speaker_02
They're getting 24 points a game in a 49-45-88 shooting season from Tyler Hero. And as we're taping this on a Thursday, they're six and seven. And Boston and Cleveland seems like they're miles ahead of them.

00:11:39 Speaker_02
But the big thing for me, and a lot of people have talked about this this week, and this is like, the Heat fans get mad every time I talk about the Heat. They had the 15th pick in the draft.

00:11:48 Speaker_02
They drafted Ware, the center, who barely plays, and they passed on back-to-back picks. Jared McCain goes to Philly, and Kanek goes to the Lakers. And in the old days, the heat, if McCain was on the board at 15, like forget about Connect.

00:12:01 Speaker_02
I like Connect, but I can see it. He's 24. They already have shooters who don't really play defense. Like I get it. McCain was the most Miami pick. I can't believe, I couldn't believe it in the moment.

00:12:11 Speaker_02
If you go back to my Twitter feed, I was going nuts about McCain. I thought like, I was like, this guy, I know this guy's good because he was an LA kid. I watched him play in high school a bunch of times. He was my favorite.

00:12:21 Speaker_02
kind of post-ladder guy in the draft by far. I would have bet anything McCain was going to be a good player. And they passed on him. And maybe it's nothing. Everybody misses on picks. They had Hero, they took Bam, they took Hawkeyes.

00:12:35 Speaker_02
They're clearly really good at drafting. And they whiffed on this pick with two guys that really, really, really could have helped them. Big picture, I'm just not afraid of the heat anymore.

00:12:46 Speaker_02
I think I finally, it's like the horror movie where you're not looking under your bed. I'm just not looking under my bed anymore with the heat. Great run, 2020, 23, and it's over. And we'll see what they do with it.

00:12:57 Speaker_02
But that McCain connect thing is like symbolic of something that shifted with those guys. Fifth thing on the six pack.

00:13:07 Speaker_02
So the NBA all-star game, Shams Sharania, now VSPN, reported that they're gonna do a four-team tournament this year, and they're gonna have three all-star teams, eight players each, and then they're gonna have the winner of the rookie sophomore game, and so it's gonna be four teams competing, semifinal games up to 40 points, first team to 40, I guess, wins, finals games up to 25 points.

00:13:32 Speaker_02
As usual, they didn't consult with me, even though I would put my track record of great goofy MBA ideas against anyone in the 21st century. I just would. Just go look at the track record, it's there.

00:13:45 Speaker_02
I don't know why the rookie sophomore guys are in this, and I don't know why each team has eight players. If they had asked me, what do you think, I would have said four all-star teams, six players each, so there's one sub.

00:13:57 Speaker_02
Has anybody who made this decision ever played pickup basketball? Who has three subs in pickup basketball? It sucks.

00:14:03 Speaker_02
I remember playing in a league one year in Boston when we had nine players, and it was short games, and you're just shuttling guys in and out like it was hockey, and it sucked. I would have done four all-star teams. I would have done six players each.

00:14:19 Speaker_02
Had the signature players of the league be the captain of those teams, so you have Steph, you have Giannis, you have LeBron, and maybe Jokic. I don't know, however you want to do it. Sorry, NBD, you make the cut.

00:14:33 Speaker_02
and done six players, then each player's a sub. And by the way, if somebody gets hurt, you still have five players. Maybe there's like a 25th All-Star who's like the emergency QB who can come in at any point if two guys are hurt.

00:14:45 Speaker_02
I just don't get the eight players thing, and I don't understand why anybody wants to watch the rookie sophomore guys playing against these dudes. Not to mention, those guys are actually gonna be really trying, and maybe that's why they did it.

00:14:57 Speaker_02
Maybe they wanted the All-Stars to try against the rookie sophomores, but it's like, that's a pretty big spot to throw a rookie team in, especially when you have the draft that we had this year that was pretty uninspired, the sophomores, whatever.

00:15:11 Speaker_02
But I just, it was an easy tweak. I don't know how they fucked this up. As usual, they didn't ask me. Sixth and last. I think Milwaukee's gonna be fine. That's where I landed. I don't think they're gonna win the title.

00:15:26 Speaker_02
I don't even think they're necessarily gonna make the Eastern Finals, but I didn't think that before the season. What was in play for the first three weeks was this could be an all-time disaster. They're gonna have to trade Giannis.

00:15:37 Speaker_02
It just felt like all the darkest pieces of the season were sitting there. Giannis is averaging a 32-12-6. It's like his seventh straight year where he's looked like one of the three best players in the league at worst.

00:15:52 Speaker_02
Dame has not shot the ball well, and they're still 6-9 with three horrible losses. One that actually seemed like there should have been a criminal investigation with the officiating.

00:16:01 Speaker_02
But 6-9 easily could be 9-6, three of the dumbest losses of the season. Green and Prince, two swing guys for them, both shooting 50% from three. So Doc has just figured out, like, I'm probably just going to give up defense with the swings.

00:16:15 Speaker_02
I just want to make sure guys can make shots. That's why somebody like AJ Green is playing. And they're not a top four team. I don't think they're there with Boston, Cleveland, New York, or Orlando.

00:16:25 Speaker_02
But after that, I don't know who I'd like more than Giannis and the Bucks. I'd probably have them fifth. And all they need to do is get to the playoffs, and then you have Giannis, and you can try to stay healthy, and maybe you can find one shooter.

00:16:37 Speaker_02
They're minus 700 for the playoffs on FanDuel, which I think is notable. I should also mention FanDuel does not have odds for Philly to make the playoffs. You literally can't find them, because that's how crazy this Philly season's been.

00:16:50 Speaker_02
But I'm leaning toward Milwaukee's probably okay, right? Maybe they're not one of the favorites, But they're okay. This isn't gonna be like a catastrophe of the season. Philly is not okay, and we're gonna be talking about that later.

00:17:07 Speaker_02
So that's the six pack for the NBA. But I have to bring in Steve Cerutti, Orlando Magic fan, producer of the pod. because there's some Franz Wagner atoning we have to do. I handed my Ringer 100 list over a week ago.

00:17:21 Speaker_02
I think I had Franz like in the low 60s. The list itself didn't do very well. And all Franz has done over the last two weeks has said, not only are we not gonna miss Paula, but I'm actually an All-NBA player and sign me up for this list.

00:17:35 Speaker_02
Is this a fluke or is this real?

00:17:39 Speaker_00
I think it's real.

00:17:39 Speaker_00
I will say my biggest gripe with Franz is that in the past with Paulo, when he would go on these quarter stretches where he'd clearly be the guy and on a streak, they just wouldn't give him the ball or he wouldn't be proactive and be like, no, I'm that dude right now.

00:17:55 Speaker_00
Paulo, take a step back. And I think this, you know, you never want to say an injury is like a blessing in disguise. But I kind of feel like Franz has found his groove again, because he's just the guy now.

00:18:05 Speaker_00
And I'm kind of hoping like in the long term, this is going to translate to like some a little bit like taking some of the pressure off Apollo and Franz realizing like, hey, there are stretches where I can be that dude.

00:18:15 Speaker_00
Because I mean, he's averaging like 37 and six. Play that a six-game winning streak obviously we're recording this after the loss against the Clippers last night And he didn't have a great game, but that you know it's okay.

00:18:25 Speaker_00
It's six straight great games. I This is everything that we wanted a max player This is everything that we thought he was gonna be and I'm looking at the ringer rankings right now It's it's doing my guy disservice. It really is He's 40 he's 48

00:18:43 Speaker_00
which is he's behind Scottie Barnes. He's behind. I mean, there are just some guys like he's behind Dame and he's behind Paul George.

00:18:52 Speaker_00
You know, I know there's the name recognition, but like you're telling me the Sixers right now, not for like the next two, three, four, five years like this year, the Sixers would much rather have Franz than Paul George.

00:19:03 Speaker_00
The Bucks would much rather have Franz than Damian Lillard. I don't even think it's close. So like I know the name thing like we want to give those guys respect, but that's insane.

00:19:12 Speaker_02
In our defense, when the first couple of weeks Franz couldn't hit a three and it's like, what's going on? Where's team Germany? Franz is that guy coming back?

00:19:20 Speaker_00
35% right now. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's not terrible. It could be better. I still think it could be improved, but he's, he's fine.

00:19:27 Speaker_02
Team Germany. Franz seems like he's back.

00:19:31 Speaker_00
It's pretty exciting. He's one of eight players averaging 25 rebounds, four assists, and 4.5 steals a game. That's Luka, De'Aaron Fox, SGA, Harden, Jokic, Tatum, and Jalen Williams. Like it's, he's on very impressive lists. So I just love this.

00:20:01 Speaker_00
It's like the Franz Renaissance thing, proving he's a max player. And you know, who knows, like Paolo, you know, he's going to be out probably at least another month or so. So this is the thing that's probably going to keep rolling.

00:20:10 Speaker_02
Yeah. The thing you needed was with Paolo going out, How can Orlando keep their spot as either the third or the fourth seed?

00:20:18 Speaker_02
How can you make sure you stay in the, you're gonna win the division, although I don't even know if winning the division matters anymore. But nine and seven, losing your best guy for God knows how long is not a bad place to be.

00:20:30 Speaker_02
We're taping this before the Lakers game, but the pod's going up for the Lakers game. The thing with the Lakers, they don't have really anyone on their roster to guard, to guard like good scoring wings like this or good point guards, by the way.

00:20:43 Speaker_02
And they've had this stretch where they've won some games.

00:20:45 Speaker_02
But part of the reason they're winning the games is because they can play this lineup with connect and Reeves and LeBron and DLO altogether because they don't have to worry about guarding anyone.

00:20:55 Speaker_02
I want to see if Franz can light up the Lakers tonight because I think he can. It's the type of guy that I don't even know you know, who they'd have to guard him. So, we'll see. I'm glad Franz is back. I'm glad for your sanity.

00:21:07 Speaker_00
You're back in on the Max Player bandwagon. You're back. We flip-flopped a little this summer, but you're back now. It's good to have you.

00:21:13 Speaker_02
Well, and then the other thing is Anthony Black, the last time we talked about this, continues to be making strides. So, they're laying the foundation.

00:21:21 Speaker_02
They're not in the Cleveland-Boston swimming pool, but they're at the pool right next to it doing laps.

00:21:27 Speaker_00
No, but you know what? Like I was talking to a buddy about this. The East is weird because I think before the season we were like, Hey, it's Boston. Then it's like kind of the next like two through eight or nine. We're like, I don't know.

00:21:37 Speaker_00
Could be like between like two to three games could could be the difference at the end of the season. Now it feels totally different to me now. It feels like like the magic should get a home playoff series.

00:21:46 Speaker_00
The top four things should be a thing this year. Right.

00:21:49 Speaker_02
And you have a home playoff series that could be against Miami, that could be against Milwaukee. You want the home court. You want the game seven. And then when did they say Palos coming back?

00:22:00 Speaker_00
Originally, I think it was six to eight weeks. But I mean, that was like a reevaluation period. So we still have another at least month to go. Which you know what? It's all right. Like just, you know, France is France is holding it, holding it down.

00:22:12 Speaker_00
And, you know, I'm just hoping that like there was a little bit of like, hey, you know, creeping into my mind of like, can these two guys peak coexist together?

00:22:21 Speaker_00
Like they're both good together, but can and I'm just hoping like, you know, because this team is so France dependent before he went out or for Paulo went down. Like I remember talking to Rahim about this, like this team is going to be awful to watch.

00:22:31 Speaker_00
Like they might win some games, but awful. And they've been significantly better. So the hope is that you know, Fran sort of realizes that, hey, I'm that dude too, and I'm an all-star caliber player, which I've thought for a while now, so we'll see.

00:22:42 Speaker_02
Yeah, I was wondering if they're gonna be almost like the Steelers, where they're winning 18 to 16 and getting six field goals, like whatever the NBA version of that, but yeah, they've been a little more fun than that.

00:22:52 Speaker_02
All right, so Rudy, who's winning the college football championship, by the way?

00:22:55 Speaker_00
Who do I bet on? If you could pick anything, who would you bet on?

00:23:00 Speaker_00
Don't dip your toe into the Indiana waters, because we were talking about that in Rosillo's pod the other day, and we set the internet on fire because everyone's mad because he doesn't think Indiana's worthy of making the playoff, even with a loss against Ohio State.

00:23:10 Speaker_00
I would say, I think Oregon's still kind of vulnerable. I still kind of like Georgia, even though some of their weapons are bad.

00:23:17 Speaker_00
If I had to make a bet right now, and this is just not putting money aside, I still think Oregon's probably the pick, but it's wide open, man. That's what's kind of cool about this whole year, is that there's

00:23:26 Speaker_00
you know, three, four, five, six teams that are all kind of in that same, same area. But I'd go, I'd go Oregon now. Uh, I love Dylan Gabriel. The quarterback is just like a dude that wins games.

00:23:36 Speaker_02
So Oregon's plus one 45, Georgia's 24 to one on Fandle.

00:23:41 Speaker_00
Yeah. The problem is George is really good, but their quarterback has just been awful all season long. So if they just get average quarterback play, they're probably better than everybody else. But

00:23:48 Speaker_02
All right, well that's it. I just did college football talk on the Bill Simmons podcast. We have Rosillo, we have McShane, now we have way better places to do it. But Srooti, thank you. We're gonna take a break and come back with some football.

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00:24:26 Speaker_02
to have both teams to score 30 plus points in the first quarter. I messed around with this last week. I had a great time. I think I hit on Anthony Edwards, I missed on two others, but it was really fun to actually, 30 points is perfect.

00:24:40 Speaker_02
You can check during the games, like, oh my God, my guy's got 27 points already. So there's a couple that jumped out to me. It's tough, because you're thinking about the matchup, who's playing who, but Cam Thomas against Philadelphia, that was one.

00:24:54 Speaker_02
I like that idea. I like the idea of Curry against New Orleans. The odds won't be great, but I still like it. And then the only other one I have is Sacramento versus the Clippers. Seems like a great Darren Fox spot. So let's go with those three.

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Terms, taxes, and fees apply. See app for details. All right, our old friend Peter Schrager is here. You can watch him on Good Morning Football. You can see him on Fox.

00:26:50 Speaker_02
The last time I saw him, we were in person doing a pod as the Jets were falling apart, and somehow that's still going. We're not gonna start with them, though. We are heading into week 12. There's a bunch of bye weeks. Thanksgiving's coming up.

00:26:59 Speaker_02
We're hitting that second stage of the NFL season. We know who's good. We know who's not good. We know there's gonna be one surprise team coming. We have a sense of who the seven contenders are. surprise for you after 11 weeks. You can say anything.

00:27:15 Speaker_02
Thing you're most shocked by. The Jets. You know the Jets. See, I feel like I picked the Jets to win the AFC East, but I also like was fully aware of this alternate universe where everything went wrong and that's what's happening.

00:27:29 Speaker_03
All right. So that the just the fact that like I haven't bought into the hype over here. I live in New York. I grew up with all Jets fans like and I've never been one to say, well, this is the year, you know, they drafted Denzel Mims.

00:27:39 Speaker_03
This is the year, you know, they got Elijah Moore. This is going to be the year. And then I fell for it.

00:27:46 Speaker_02
You fell for it hard. There's MVP Rodgers videos of you on the internets.

00:27:52 Speaker_03
Shameful. And that whoever runs that freezing takes or that old takes exposed, like he has no, he has no problem posting that every single time the Jets lose a game of me saying that Rodgers is going to be MVP. We all have those.

00:28:10 Speaker_03
We've got them out there. It's fine. I will say this. I felt so hard this year for the Jets because I looked at the AFC and I'm like, there's an opening here. I didn't think Buffalo was going to be what they were.

00:28:21 Speaker_03
I had a feeling Miami would take it down. And I thought, you know, obviously New England, I was like, this is the year there's a window, the seas are parting. The talent and the clip of us talking week one has gone viral again, has been reposted.

00:28:36 Speaker_03
And I still don't regret what I said. You go top to bottom on that roster. The names are outstanding. And I guess I got caught up in it. And it's not fantasy football. And there is something called chemistry.

00:28:48 Speaker_03
And when you fire your coach five weeks into the season, that's not always going to be the greatest decision. And at the end of the day, I fell for it hard and I hand up. I fucked up. I was wrong. Jets suck.

00:28:59 Speaker_03
And it's a shame because they're going to start, they're going to try to rebuild this thing.

00:29:02 Speaker_02
By the way, everything you just said, we could probably just insert sixers. Like as a voiceover for every piece of that. I fell for it. I didn't, chemistry, I didn't realize it was going to go sideways, but we knew this was the risk with the jets.

00:29:17 Speaker_02
Rogers is old. Rogers coming off major surgery. The son Reddick thing was weird. Sala had never had a winning season. They were trying to shoehorn this Rogers thing into the jets. There are the jets. Bad things happen with the jets.

00:29:31 Speaker_02
I fell for it too, I picked them over Buffalo. And what both of us missed is what Sal nailed before the season. What if this is the Josh Allen year, and now it looks like it's the Josh Allen year? He's your MVP.

00:29:42 Speaker_03
Through 12 weeks, Josh Allen's your MVP. And you know, fantasy is so funny on these Sundays.

00:29:48 Speaker_03
I know it's like, it's shot and fraud almost, but like, his tweet is so prescient now that he did on the Monday of week one, where he's basically like, just having it on record right now,

00:30:00 Speaker_03
I think this Aaron Rodgers thing is going to be a massive failure and everyone's going to get fired at the end of the year. The only wrong thing about it was it wasn't the end of the year. It was before even Thanksgiving. And he was right.

00:30:10 Speaker_03
So I was wrong on the Jets. And, you know, I'll take my beating. The thing that's been a pleasant surprise and I didn't see it coming was what we got in Pittsburgh. And I think it's a really cool story. And of course, they're playing as we record this.

00:30:22 Speaker_03
They're playing tonight. And there's always weird things that happen on short weeks on Thursday nights and maybe division matchup, goofy weather, the whole thing.

00:30:30 Speaker_03
Overall though, if you told me that Russell Wilson was gonna take a visit with the Giants, was gonna fly commercial to Pittsburgh, was gonna sell his wares as a potential future Hall of Famer to these teams and say, who wants me?

00:30:44 Speaker_03
And that the Denver Broncos were gonna pay 95% of his contract this season, no matter who he went to, because of what was already owed, and he would be the one leading the Pittsburgh Steelers into Thanksgiving as the one or two seed in the AFC, I would've told you you're crazy.

00:30:59 Speaker_02
Well, you could have told me I was crazy, because I predicted all of those things before the season. It was one of my best ones. Where's freezing cold takes on that? Come on, guys! Maybe they should have smoking hot takes.

00:31:08 Speaker_02
Should be an alternate account of people just crushing preseason picks. Where's that account?

00:31:13 Speaker_03
I met the guy who does it.

00:31:14 Speaker_02
LeBron's right. Social media too negative. Where's the positive? Where's the positive stuff about the media? Come on, LeBron.

00:31:19 Speaker_03
LeBron's out. LeBron's out on social media.

00:31:22 Speaker_02
He does this every year. It's like when my wife gets mad at one of her friends. She's like, I'm not talking to her again. And then six weeks later, they're hanging out.

00:31:28 Speaker_03
28 years on social media. Now LeBron is out. It's just too toxic. The guy's name was Fred Siegel. That's who does the Freezing Cold takes. And he reached out to me, came on Good Morning Football. He did a book. I'm like, I love this guy.

00:31:40 Speaker_03
Now he's trying to murder my career. It is everything and it comes out.

00:31:43 Speaker_02
Well, I think he's an equal opportunity murderer is where he's fashioned himself. I got to say, the most shocking thing for me is Buffalo.

00:31:52 Speaker_02
I'm not shocked that they're gonna get to 10 wins, because that was, if you were picking the Jets over them, I thought there was only gonna be one AFC East playoff team.

00:32:01 Speaker_02
And I just thought the Jets had more stacked their way than Buffalo in this goofy year they're having. So Buffalo winning the AFC is the Jets thinking, not that surprising to me. But Buffalo being good is surprising. I don't really fully understand it.

00:32:16 Speaker_02
I don't know enough about the mechanics of how you get a defense going that seems pretty flimsy.

00:32:22 Speaker_02
And yet when you watch them, like hats on the ball, sideline locked in, really well coached, really seems like they're across the board locked in, don't really have any weaknesses, which is crazy, because they've had a lot of attrition, they've had injuries, and I just don't fully understand it.

00:32:37 Speaker_02
Like weird rookie receivers and young receivers, or never did it before receivers, a hodgepodge running game with a bunch of running backs, I just don't fully get it.

00:32:47 Speaker_03
They're so good. And what they've done is they've found ways to win games that they used to lose.

00:32:54 Speaker_03
So that Chiefs game, of course, they've beaten the Chiefs three different times the regular season, but there was that window where it's like, okay, here comes Kansas City. And after the third and one,

00:33:05 Speaker_03
that they go to, I think they hand it to Ty Johnson for a one yard loss. Bad play, you're like, all right, fourth and two. I remember last year in the playoffs, they trotted out the punt team and they ran a fake punt with DeMar Hamlin on fourth down.

00:33:19 Speaker_03
And that one was justifiable in that they couldn't stop Kansas City. Kansas City was going up and down the field. I think Mahomes scored in five of six possessions. Like, all right, we did, fine. McDermott took a beating. He became a punching bag.

00:33:31 Speaker_03
Everyone made their jokes. They have the courage to say, you know what, screw it. We're going for it again. And if we fail and come up short and we lose, like we'll deal with it on Monday morning.

00:33:39 Speaker_02
Do you think that was courage though? Because sometimes I'm like, why are they doing this? But usually I'm saying, why are they doing this when your quarterback's like Jameis Winston? Right.

00:33:48 Speaker_02
Or you have like a rookie quarterback, and you're like, why are they doing this? They're not good. They're up to, they're up to. I like it. I thought Romo sniffed it out. He's like, give the ball to Josh, let him decide the game.

00:33:59 Speaker_02
I was like, I actually agree. Let him decide the game.

00:34:02 Speaker_03
And of course it works out, and Josh is Superman, and that's an amazing, it's one of the all-time, like, if that rivalry, that's a play that like goes on the list. If they'd kicked a field goal, and they'd gone up five,

00:34:13 Speaker_03
It reminds me a little bit of LeFleur against the Buccaneers in that AFC Championship, NFC Championship game a few years back. It's like, we just got to stop them once and we get the ball back. They didn't want to do that.

00:34:22 Speaker_03
And that's with scar tissue from the year before of not wanting to do that and getting burned on it with that fake punch. So McDermott- But you know what?

00:34:30 Speaker_02
It was a risky non-risk because they had like a five game lead in the AFC East. It's like, you lose that game and it's like, all right, so maybe we're going to be a three seed instead of a two seed. But it really wasn't a massive risk.

00:34:45 Speaker_02
If the Ravens did something like that this week when they're seven and four, you know, and it's a must win game against the Chargers, a little more, a little higher stakes on that one than I think Buffalo.

00:34:56 Speaker_03
Yeah. I also think it was a gift for us in our world as a media because Kansas City wins that, then they have a three game lead over Buffalo plus the tiebreaker. And it's like, all right, we've already got our playoff pictures wide open now.

00:35:10 Speaker_02
Yeah.

00:35:10 Speaker_03
And, and Buffalo is not going to suck. Christmas Day games is like an AFC semifinals. You've got the Texans and the Ravens and you've got the Steelers and the Chiefs. So I think it was a huge game and it was a huge win.

00:35:23 Speaker_03
And as much as Josh Allen downplayed it, and I know a lot of people on Monday morning, our guy Kyle Brandt was like, as a Bills guy, he's like, that was nothing. Like, stop, like, don't make a big deal out of this. It was a week 11 game.

00:35:34 Speaker_03
In 100 years, we'll forget about it. I felt the opposite. And traditionally, I'm the Chiefs guy. I pick the Chiefs to win every year. And I've made a lot of bones in the playoffs. They're going on the road to Baltimore. They're going to win.

00:35:46 Speaker_03
They're going on the road to Buffalo last year. They're going to win. I thought that one, I felt like Buffalo was the better team. They were more dynamic. They felt like they had more deep threats. And gosh, I thought they were a better coach too.

00:35:58 Speaker_03
So I thought that was a big win for Buffalo.

00:36:00 Speaker_02
Do you agree with my theory? that they kept Kelsey in the garage for that game.

00:36:05 Speaker_03
The Ferrari, I heard you talking about that with Sal.

00:36:08 Speaker_02
It felt like, let's not show all our cards in this game game by then. The thing I was most concerned about, the Chiefs, and especially listening to some pods and reading stuff over the next couple of days after the game,

00:36:20 Speaker_02
their tackles might not be good, right? And they figured out a way to kind of scotch tape shit together. We've seen them do this a million times, but it seems like both tackles aren't really any good now.

00:36:34 Speaker_02
And I don't know if they can get something going from there, but from an offensive line standpoint, this feels like the shakiest they've been, right?

00:36:41 Speaker_03
Yeah, and look, the last time their tackles gave us those questions was going to the Super Bowl against the Buccaneers, and they didn't have Fisher, they didn't have Schwartz, and we're like, all right,

00:36:50 Speaker_03
But they'll figure it out, and then the Buccaneers, you know, obviously manhandle them at the line of scrimmage, and then Mohamed lost that Super Bowl.

00:36:56 Speaker_02
By the way, where's Freezing Cold takes for that guy? We have multiple videos of us guaranteeing a Bucs Super Bowl win. I don't see him digging those up. We were great. We were great at that.

00:37:03 Speaker_03
Jesus. Freddie Siegel. Anyway, the... The, the other part of it is like, you know, they throw that, they try to get Worthy involved early.

00:37:12 Speaker_03
And I was like, it's a little bit of this being chippy, like, you know, the Bills traded us this guy, we're going to get, we're going to get Worthy involved.

00:37:19 Speaker_03
Then Worthy steps out of bounds when he has the whole field one foot and you're like, that's not Chiefs football. Like that doesn't go that way.

00:37:26 Speaker_02
So- By the way, that was Patriots football is what it was. I've watched that all year. Wide open guy stepping out of bounds, terrible blocking, stupid strategies. That's past football right now.

00:37:38 Speaker_03
I get worried about the Chiefs with that because their defense has led the way for them. Their special teams has been awesome. Now, Butker's down, and now this Spencer Schrader's gonna have to make a couple big kicks. We'll see.

00:37:48 Speaker_03
But like, who's scaring you besides Mahomes? And you could say it's because, hey, when you need him, Kelsey's gonna go 10 for 120 with two touchdowns. Maybe? He hasn't been that guy.

00:37:58 Speaker_03
I know he had a couple big statistical games the last few weeks, but like, I don't think Kelsey's doing like he was doing it a couple of years ago.

00:38:05 Speaker_03
And then, you know, you're throwing a ball to Noah Gray and Justin Watson and Juju, like, and Xavier Worthy's a nice deep threat, but I just don't know if this Chiefs team has enough firepower.

00:38:16 Speaker_03
And it sounds crazy to say that with an Andy Reid offense that has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

00:38:20 Speaker_02
We said it last year in December, it was one of the, I mean, I think their bottom three explosive plays this year. which seems crazy for our Mahomes team.

00:38:28 Speaker_02
Like if you have Mahomes in fantasy, hasn't gone great, but we watched them reinvent themselves after that Christmas game, Christmas Eve game, whatever that was against the Raiders. And they immediately reinvent themselves.

00:38:41 Speaker_02
They're also, they're built, when the weather gets colder, that's going to be good for them too. I don't think it's going to be as good for some of the other teams. So I'm not, I'm not panicking. And by the way, they almost won the game.

00:38:51 Speaker_02
And I do think if Worthy hadn't stepped out of bounds, they'd probably win the game. But on the other hand, you're relying on Worthy in these big spots. It's going to be the same situation in January. Who'd you have Super Bowl?

00:39:02 Speaker_02
You had Lions winning it all? I ended up with Lions over Texans. Okay, still alive. Right before this season. I felt like the Chiefs had become undervalued and I did a Lions-Chiefs Super Bowl bet that was like 30.

00:39:16 Speaker_02
All the Lions stuff was gonna hit, 1C, NFC North. I think that's been the least surprising thing is the Lions kinda, they were, were who they thought they were. It was the opposite of Danny Green. The Lions were who we thought they were.

00:39:30 Speaker_03
They were who we thought they were. I did Chiefs over Packers and my Packers caveat was. You're not done with that. And I'm not done with that.

00:39:37 Speaker_03
And my Packers caveat was they're gonna do it as a wild card, because the Lions are gonna be the one seed and gonna run away with this thing. So that's all still in play. Detroit.

00:39:45 Speaker_02
But one thing on the Packers, we're gonna know this weekend, I think. We're gonna have a real feeling, because they have a nice game against the Niners that they should win. We're gonna be talking about our million dollar picks later.

00:39:55 Speaker_02
If something good is gonna happen to them in January, I need them to win the Niners game. And if they don't, I'm gonna be probably tapping out.

00:40:03 Speaker_03
Yeah. Yeah, the Lions have been an interesting one because it's been like this locomotive and they really will be one of the only teams in the league in 2024 where everyone's buddy and exchanging jerseys, like they'll snap your neck. They don't care.

00:40:17 Speaker_03
Like they, I saw a stat, they scored more than 50 points three times from the year 1920 to the year 2023. They've already scored more than 50 points twice this year, and they have embarrassed teams.

00:40:32 Speaker_03
And they've also won close games, which is obviously the Vikings game with Jake Bates hitting those fields, and then the comeback game against the Texans. So they've won in a variety of different ways.

00:40:43 Speaker_03
Yeah, where they overcame golf's, you know, five interceptions and still had to found a way. So like, I kind of like it that it's not just been 0-7 Patriots or 2013 Broncos where they just ripped every team apart.

00:40:57 Speaker_03
Like, they've been in games too and they've won those as well. And some adversity.

00:41:01 Speaker_02
It's not like everything went great this year. They lost Hutchinson when he was the best defensive front four guy in the league, they lost their defensive captain two weeks ago. I liked the David Logs signing.

00:41:11 Speaker_02
I thought that was, I was surprised he got waived. I liked him a couple years ago. Jamison Williams got suspended. Goff had the five pick game. It hasn't been perfect, but they're doing the, they're almost like a college football team some games.

00:41:26 Speaker_02
They're not just beating teams, they're like absolutely select. When you score seven straight touchdowns to start a game, that's like, you're on a different level at that point.

00:41:34 Speaker_03
Seven straight possessions. It's wild. Have you seen the Super Bowl ads? It's the first time ever in their history, and I don't know how far back these gambling sites go, but I saw it was the first time ever that they are the Super Bowl favorite, ever.

00:41:47 Speaker_02
It has to be. I mean, with Eric Kramer and Barry Sanders, I don't think they're the favorites. Yeah, they're plus 350 right now. The Chiefs are five to one. The Bills are plus 650. And then the Eagles are sitting there at eight to one.

00:42:01 Speaker_02
Houston's at 17 to one. It does feel a little hodgepodgey. You look at some of the Super Bowl matchups, because they have all the different matchups, and it's like, let's say I still feel like the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.

00:42:16 Speaker_02
Until they have actually lost the Super Bowl, it's still in my head. I'm always gonna be afraid of that one for a Lions thing, but the Chiefs to beat the Lions is 14 to one. But you look at some of these other dopey ones,

00:42:29 Speaker_02
Chiefs to beat Arizona is 85 to one. It's not insane that Arizona could make the Super, I'm not really not ruling out anyone is my point. As good as Detroit's looked, I'm not ruling out anyone, I'm just not.

00:42:41 Speaker_03
Well, it's just that with Detroit, it's like, all right, let's say they have home field advantage, they won two playoff games there last year, they beat the Rams and they beat the Bucks, they did fine, and then they went on the road and lost, and it's like,

00:42:51 Speaker_03
How it usually works is you don't, with the rare exception of maybe the Eagles a couple of years ago with foals or like the 99 Rams where you just come out of literally nowhere and you're like, we're just going to win a Super Bowl.

00:43:03 Speaker_03
Usually you have to go through the progression of you go and you go to the playoffs and you lose a tough one and then you win another round. Did it. So like it's all there for them.

00:43:14 Speaker_03
I just have thoughts of Dan Campbell, time management, game management, close game, late, going up against.

00:43:22 Speaker_03
a McVay going up against maybe a Kyle Shanahan, who everyone has their own issues with at the end of games, but like has been there also time and time again. It's that kind of stuff that it's an intangible and you can't do it until you do it.

00:43:35 Speaker_03
But just as so many teams have gotten to the precipice and had to lose a couple of times before they got to that over the hump, maybe this is Detroit needing one more year. We'll see.

00:43:46 Speaker_02
That was my case when I picked them, that there's actual history. And I think there were four differences of the team that got really close the year before.

00:43:56 Speaker_02
learn something and then was able to apply it and either win the Super Bowl or come really close. And I think it happened like five times in the last seven years.

00:44:02 Speaker_03
I remember the Ravens lost to you guys, Lee Evans dropped the pass, and then Billy Cundiff misses the football.

00:44:06 Speaker_02
Yeah, we never had Billy Cundiff.

00:44:08 Speaker_03
Yeah, and then the very next year, they're like, screw it. They go into Foxborough, they beat you guys, and then they go in and win the Super Bowl. Like, that's a recent memory of a team that had to lose and then found a way to win, you know?

00:44:18 Speaker_02
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00:46:02 Speaker_02
It's nice to see all the different family traditions people do this time of year. You know what's become one of my new favorite traditions? My daughter comes home from college. We haven't seen her in L.A.

00:46:14 Speaker_02
where I live since the beginning of August, so when she comes home, it feels like the Conquering Hero is back. I love it. However you plan to spend your time during the holiday season, I hope you guys are happy, but also,

00:46:25 Speaker_02
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00:47:41 Speaker_02
Well, now we've hit the portion of the podcast where I make my guests talk about Drake May for 60 seconds. This is unbelievable. This whole week, watching football Twitter, people like Orlovsky weighed in a couple times.

00:47:54 Speaker_02
All the football experts, like, who's the guy Colin has, Cosell? He came in, all the film guys are coming in like, you guys don't realize what Drake May is doing right now. You don't understand what's happening here. I've been going nuts.

00:48:09 Speaker_02
I can't, this is the most I've texted about the past since like the Flakegate. This is the most excited I've been. F minus coaching staff, no receivers, can't really block, running backs that can't do anything.

00:48:22 Speaker_02
So I just, this is where I make my guests talk about Drake May. So talk about Drake May.

00:48:26 Speaker_03
He's been unbelievable. And I talked to McVeigh Monday morning. Oh, McVeigh was another one. Gosh! McVeigh called him a stud in that press conference. And I hit up Sean just to talk about, you know, their game, whatever.

00:48:38 Speaker_03
And then I also said, like, let's talk about... And he was just like, that guy. I mean, they got their guy. That guy's unbelievable. Like, what a performance.

00:48:45 Speaker_03
And the stat I got from my researcher at Good Morning Football, a great guy named Dante, says this was the second time in May's career that he threw the ball 40 times or more

00:48:54 Speaker_03
completed at 70% of his passes, and only two other rookies in the history of the sport have done that. And it's Justin Herbert, and it's Joe Burrow, and like, Drake May's already done it twice.

00:49:05 Speaker_03
Like, we're talking, and he does 95% of the offense, which you've noted. Like, it's just like, throw it on my shoulders, I'll figure it out. And they're not even running in the right place for him.

00:49:15 Speaker_02
Like, half the time, you're like, what was that? Why did we do that? What are we doing?

00:49:20 Speaker_03
he's, he's doing it with, with talent that might not be starting on other NFL rosters, which is, I think a kind thing to say. The offensive line, there's a lot to be desired. The coaching isn't exactly the offensive line.

00:49:32 Speaker_02
Like Cole strange is coming back. And when that Cole strange is coming back, like he's back, baby, we have another guard.

00:49:43 Speaker_03
It's been really cool to see. In fact, this whole rookie class, and not to get off the Drake May conversation.

00:49:48 Speaker_02
No, we're good. You gave me a minute.

00:49:49 Speaker_03
We can move on now. They've all had their moments, and as great as Drake May was in the early window on Sunday, I know everyone was watching Bill's Chiefs like, Bo Nix was fucking amazing. I know.

00:50:01 Speaker_02
He's gotten better every week for like six weeks.

00:50:03 Speaker_03
And, and Moose Johnston was doing the game and he dropped his little nugget of like, Oh, I don't, I didn't know that.

00:50:09 Speaker_03
Like Moose was like, we spoke to Sean Payton in the production meeting, which we always talk about the value of the production meeting, whether you're there or you're not, believe it or not.

00:50:16 Speaker_03
And he's like, and he said he liked Nick's more than all these rookie quarterbacks in the draft. I'm like, that's crazy. He was the sixth one taken. Like, wow. I believe it. It's the perfect match. There was no crazy ramp up period for him.

00:50:30 Speaker_03
He's 26 years old. He's played in 61 college games. He's seen it all. He's played at big programs, Auburn and Oregon. He's had failure. He's had success. He's done the senior bowl. Sean Payton does not want to work with a

00:50:42 Speaker_03
raw product, an unpolished guy that he's got to like frustrate himself with. He wants him to run his offense as like an avatar of himself. Like, here's what you're going to do and do it.

00:50:51 Speaker_03
There was a pass he had to Courtland Sutton where it was a play action pass, rolled right, humped it twice, and then like dropped it in the bucket to Sutton over AJ Terrell. And I'm like, That's a 10-year vet play that he just did, and he's doing it.

00:51:02 Speaker_03
So I say all this because May's having moments, Nick's is having moments, of course we did Jaden, Caleb's been good, and we don't know what we're gonna get from Penix.

00:51:10 Speaker_02
Caleb's been okay. Caleb's had moments. He's been sacked 44 times.

00:51:16 Speaker_03
In fact, 44 times, it's the most since David Carr in his rookie year. I can give Caleb a lot of mulligans on this season. I feel like he's been given a tough draw this whole way, whether it be the offensive line play. Wasn't tougher than Drake May.

00:51:31 Speaker_03
Fair. Fair. And you saw what Gruden said. Gruden said he'd rather have Drake May than Caleb. I'm like, it's all over the map.

00:51:37 Speaker_02
I loved it. Gruden. Addy, we invited him to superstar Drake May Island. We're handing out condos right now. Orlofsky has one.

00:51:45 Speaker_03
But I do have to ask you, did we not, okay, and I'm not trying to go and be viral for everyone else here, but did we not go down this road with Mac Jones, you and I before, but this one feels a little different.

00:51:56 Speaker_02
It feels, it's completely different. Mac Jones, it was like, really good game manager, this guy can keep us going, he can make some throws. This Drake May thing, he's doing it despite literally everybody else in every fashion.

00:52:09 Speaker_02
And I also think, seems like he's won the locker room over, too, already. How about, he gets to the press conference two weeks ago and he's like, everyone put your phones down.

00:52:17 Speaker_03
I would just like to say, how about that defense? I'm like, this is a 22 year old kid.

00:52:22 Speaker_02
Yeah. Now he's, he's figured out all those pieces and you can tell like from the other coaches and the players that are going against them, some of the quotes where it's like with Mac, it was like, yeah, it's pretty good.

00:52:32 Speaker_02
You know, it's like it was, it was never like this, but Mac, I don't know what happened to Mac. I still feel like there's a sliding doors universe. And it really kind of started when Belichick benched him for a lot of that win Buffalo game.

00:52:46 Speaker_02
Remember that, his rookie year, when it was like 49 hour wins? It was kind of never the same, but there was a, he played at Colts, I think on a Sunday night and the Colts just defended him a certain way. And it was like, it immediately broke him.

00:52:59 Speaker_02
They just like, they were like, throw over us.

00:53:01 Speaker_03
I think it was a Saturday game. It was a Saturday night game on NFL network and like, The defense and the special teams won the game for the Colts and it was like, oh, that's him.

00:53:14 Speaker_03
I would add with Drake May, and you and I have talked about this, I'm not sure on this podcast or just you and I talking, the Patriots They love this guy in the building and it goes from top to bottom, front to office.

00:53:28 Speaker_03
I know the impression he made because I know a lot of the folks in that building. When he signed his rookie contract, he showed up and all his brothers showed up and his high school girlfriend showed up and it was like this big deal.

00:53:39 Speaker_03
I got a text from someone in the building like, That's such a Schrager, stupid, intangible thing that if he stinks, like what was the point of him talking about it? Like they loved it. They're like, this is what we want.

00:53:50 Speaker_03
We want someone who like wants to put his roots down here and we can just build around this guy. And he is as loyal as it comes to family, to his friends, to his faith. It's all the right stuff on paper.

00:54:01 Speaker_03
And then now you see it on the field and it's like, oh, these guys are going to rally around this guy for 10 years.

00:54:06 Speaker_02
He's, when Nate Tice was comparing me to L.A., that was like the con part, because I couldn't quite get there with the Josh Allen because it was big enough. All right, we talked too much about him.

00:54:14 Speaker_02
I can't wait 10 years from now when he's bitter because 93-year-old Kraft is spending the least amount of money on the team out of the 32 owners. It's like, I don't know, right now he's in that young, loyal puppy stage that is just so great to watch.

00:54:30 Speaker_03
I do like how this team has responded. We go back and forth.

00:54:33 Speaker_03
I know you're the Patriots voice, but Belichick and Lombardi and Patricia were feeling themselves a little bit after that soft comment and they were joking and they were making their snide comments and I felt it, I understand.

00:54:49 Speaker_03
They've won a couple games, and the players seem to be playing for Mayo. Whether or not he's an X's and O's genius, or they have ping pong in the locker room or what, this has been vacillating back and forth.

00:54:57 Speaker_03
There's obviously Kraft and Belichick lines here, and it's like, I don't know where I am on it, but.

00:55:02 Speaker_02
Well, this was a better argument a week ago. The coaching last week was an F minus, minus, minus. I know, it's not been good. It was probably the worst coaching they've had all year. I said it straight up, it's not been good.

00:55:12 Speaker_02
They're a live dog this week, though. They're plus seven in Miami. Yeah. I don't know, I just think week to week they're going to be really hard to predict because they easily could have beaten the Rams last week.

00:55:22 Speaker_03
Dude, they were up on the Rams.

00:55:24 Speaker_02
Yeah. By the way, let's talk about the Rams for a second because you're pretty wired in with them. Yep. Pretty lucky to beat the Pats, a team that made a ton of mistakes, that the coaching was abysmal. Then they're playing the Eagles this week.

00:55:39 Speaker_02
And all my instincts should be like, nah, I'm taking the Eagles. The Rams are kind of fraudulent. And yet I kind of like McVay against the Eagles. I don't know why. I don't know what it is.

00:55:47 Speaker_02
But him against Fangio, I love the way Stafford played last week. I thought he was awesome. Their receivers are back. They can run the ball. Williams is really crafty.

00:55:58 Speaker_02
There were times when it felt like the Pats had him behind the line and he would just figure out how to get five yards anyway. And then their defensive line can really collapse the pocket and do some stuff. So I look at that.

00:56:11 Speaker_02
I think that's one of the hardest games to figure out. I don't know if I'm going to be putting a million dollar picks, but are the Rams a playoff team to you?

00:56:18 Speaker_03
That loss to Miami on Monday Night Football is really a slap in the face to everyone who got on that bandwagon. That was maybe the worst loss any team's had this season. It's just surprising.

00:56:27 Speaker_03
You had a couple of wins in a row, you're back in this thing, and then here come this Dolphins team who just kicked their ass on national television in their building. Patriots, they should have won, they did win, it wasn't easy.

00:56:37 Speaker_03
You get back to this one now. What the testament to the Rams is that Aaron Donald retires and you know, the thought is their defense gonna go down They drafted verse. He's probably your defensive player the all over the place.

00:56:51 Speaker_02
It's either every Mitchell all over the place. He's awesome about him

00:56:56 Speaker_03
Braden Fisks, the other one, also from Florida State, second rounder. Their third round pick was Cam Kitchens, who's had two huge picks this season, the pick six against Seattle and another interception that game.

00:57:05 Speaker_03
And then the game winning the interception against you guys last week. And they got this guy, Omar Spates, who's undrafted and wears number 48 and is all over the field and had the big fourth down stop against Seattle in overtime. Now,

00:57:17 Speaker_03
What I'm saying is, with all this, it's like, you could do the F them picks, and you can be super aggressive, and you can go and make, you better nail the draft.

00:57:26 Speaker_03
And they have nailed the draft, and they've found a way to recover from Aaron Donald retiring and no first round picks for the last seven years.

00:57:34 Speaker_02
They've been really good with these guys. On that point, McPhay said something interesting about how they didn't really scout May, because they knew they had no chance at him.

00:57:42 Speaker_02
And I was wondering like, is that an advantage when you either don't have first round picks at all, so there's people like you're not even, you might as well just cross off 40 guys you know you're not gonna get, or you're just concentrating on a certain portion of the draft versus like having to think about every round.

00:57:56 Speaker_02
I do wonder if that's kind of a weird advantage that you wouldn't want, but you kind of stumble into.

00:58:01 Speaker_03
Sean had a really fun time this draft period. Now quarterback was not going to happen. They were fine with quarterback with Stafford, but like this was his first first-round pick ever. So he was super excited.

00:58:11 Speaker_03
And I said on Good Morning Football, I'm like, there is no chance that in his first time making a first-round pick, Sean McVay isn't taking an offensive player. Sure enough, they took Jared Verse. They took a defensive guy second round. I got my face.

00:58:23 Speaker_03
The guy that he loved though, and I can say it now, and it's been reported. They loved Brock Bowers, the tight end out of Georgia. They loved him. And when he started slipping, McVeigh was getting the snappy fingers and like, what can we do?

00:58:38 Speaker_03
What can we do? I believe they've made some phone calls to move up to get Bowers. It's a great what if, because Brock Bowers is now having the best rookie tight end season ever on an irrelevant Raiders team. 10 to 13 targets a week on an awful team.

00:58:50 Speaker_03
Unbelievable. Yeah. And the fact is, though, is what you're saying.

00:58:54 Speaker_03
They weren't going quarterback, but like McVeigh finally had a chance to look at blue chip talent, first round talent in a real way, not in a, well, there's a chance someone might slip or we might trade up. And he really enjoyed the process.

00:59:05 Speaker_03
So as much as an advantage as it might be to have a second round pick and not have to worry about the first round so you can look at deeper cut. It was cool for him to get that. And then the scouts, they were all in on verse.

00:59:19 Speaker_03
Credit to Les Snead and his guys. If Verse falls that far, we've got to find a way to get a new cornerstone defensive player, and I think they found him.

00:59:27 Speaker_02
Well, there was that one year when they didn't have Kohl's, they were looking at Kohl's Strange because they were like picking in the third round and the Pats took them. And McVeigh's like, wait, Kohl's Strange just went in the first round.

00:59:37 Speaker_02
We were looking at him and it was like, oh my God, we might've fucked that pickup. McVeigh's stunned that this guy went in the top 30.

00:59:44 Speaker_03
He came out the next day and was like, no, no, no, no, no, no. That's not what I was saying. That's not what I meant. We were actually surprised.

00:59:49 Speaker_02
I'm like, I don't, I don't think they had Kohl's. Nobody's believed you on that one. But the flip side was he came all the way around on Jake May. So the Rams are plus 360 to make the playoffs. That seems tough. Seattle is plus 290 to make the playoffs.

01:00:10 Speaker_02
Arizona is minus 140 to make the playoffs. And then the most shocking one to me, which isn't that shocking, is the Niners, plus money right now, plus 176. I want to talk about them really quick.

01:00:22 Speaker_03
Yeah, yeah.

01:00:24 Speaker_02
McCaffrey doesn't look like McCaffrey.

01:00:27 Speaker_03
Nope, didn't look.

01:00:28 Speaker_02
The Niners are the classic, oh, if I saw this sheet of paper, I'm like, whoa, they have a lot of good guys. But if you actually watch the games, Ayuk's gone.

01:00:37 Speaker_02
Kittle missed last week, so he's hit the George Kittle red flag stage of his season, which happens every year. Debo's been hurt a bunch of times already.

01:00:46 Speaker_02
Jawan Jennings had to make big plays last week, but McCaffrey just didn't seem special to me last week. And I don't know if it's gonna take some time to come back, or is this who he is? I don't think their offensive lines is good.

01:00:57 Speaker_02
I don't think their defenses is good. And I feel like they're still getting basically last year's value being treated that way versus what I'm watching?

01:01:08 Speaker_03
I don't think it's just last year. I think it's the institutional knowledge that over the last five years they've started off being like three and four, two and three, four and four.

01:01:16 Speaker_03
And then they, they turn it on and they get to the playoffs and they're a really hard team to beat in the playoffs. I too am watching them though last week against Seattle and Nick Bosa, clearly hurt.

01:01:29 Speaker_03
It's a hip, another one oblique, clearly not himself. You don't have Eric Armstead out there anymore. You're now a couple of years removed from, from not having Buckner out there anymore.

01:01:39 Speaker_03
All of a sudden you look around and you're like, I don't even recognize this defense. It's Fred Warner doing everything he can as he always does. It's an injured Bosa. And it's a bunch of younger guys on the back end.

01:01:49 Speaker_03
And it's like, I'm not scared of this defense.

01:01:51 Speaker_03
Like I used to be when it was D'Amico, Ryan's and Robert Sala, marching up and down the sidelines, puffing out their chest, uh, to give up an 80 yard drive to Gino Smith after you held them most of the game.

01:02:03 Speaker_03
And then especially that final plays like head scratching, not their way. What's killing them is They lost a terrible, terrible loss in Los Angeles where the receiver bell drops a pass that would put the game away at 21 to seven. That's in a division.

01:02:18 Speaker_03
They lost to the Cardinals. That's in a division. They've now lost to the Seahawks in the division. You gotta really dig yourself out of the hole because I think their best way to the playoffs is gonna be winning that division.

01:02:28 Speaker_03
Huge, massive, massive game this weekend against the Packers. And to your point, They usually own the Packers and Shanahan's had good numbers against the floor. I think he's four and two all time, but I go to the big games.

01:02:40 Speaker_03
I go to playoff games and yeah, I think Raheem Oster just scored another touchdown from the NFC championship game back in 2020.

01:02:46 Speaker_03
I remember a couple of years ago on a Saturday night, everyone, Rogers was public enemy number one with the COVID stuff and everyone was taking shots at him and he comes in as the one seed and the Niners come in with

01:02:58 Speaker_03
with Trent Williams in a boom box out of the locker room and they beat them in Lambeau and shocked the one seed on a Saturday night. And it's like the Niners just have their number. I don't know if it's that same Niners team.

01:03:09 Speaker_03
The faces might be the same. The coach might still be the same.

01:03:13 Speaker_03
But like, do I have any confidence that that 49er squad that I've seen the last few weeks limp to victories and just get by in their wins and then lose strange games and never lose is going to come in and just push around the Packers? I don't.

01:03:25 Speaker_02
One more piece. Packers almost beat them in that playoff game when it was a healthier Niners team. And probably should have won. Bad kicking, huh? A little revenge game for them in this one. And I'm with you.

01:03:38 Speaker_02
I think the Packers, I think the ceiling of the team versus what we've seen, I still believe in this ceiling. And I don't think they've played that well. And I think they've had some weird stuff happen, really starting with that crazy Brazil game.

01:03:51 Speaker_02
It's a weird way to start the season. And they got super lucky last week against the Bears. They're also playing... One thing that worries me about that game for them is... They're playing on Thursday night, too. They're playing the Dolphins, right?

01:04:03 Speaker_02
See, this huge game at home against the Niners, but you also know that other game is kind of lingering afterwards. It's Thanksgiving evening. Thanksgiving night.

01:04:12 Speaker_05
Yeah.

01:04:13 Speaker_02
And I always wonder, like, the game before the game, the good news is they're playing the Dolphins that game. Pretty mediocre Thanksgiving.

01:04:19 Speaker_03
Dolphins have won a couple games in a row now.

01:04:20 Speaker_02
No, I know. Yeah, but now they got Drake May coming to Miami. There's also some weird weather stuff this week, too, though. Oh, there's snow. Snow in Green Bay.

01:04:29 Speaker_03
Jordan Love leads the league in interceptions. Like, you're not wrong. Like, they don't look crisp.

01:04:34 Speaker_02
And then, before the season- And they've had some, like, Dobbs got suspended for a game. Like, there's been, they've looked a little gamey at times, right?

01:04:41 Speaker_03
And, like, you know, I don't know if this is a positive or negative. Now, in the early 2000s, the Patriots had this, where it was like, you didn't really have a true number one wide receiver. And the floor said that before the season.

01:04:51 Speaker_03
Like, I look at all those guys number ones, but every week, it's like, Jaden Reed's week, then it's Dobbs' week, and last week, Watson went nuts. So, I kind of like that. There was a Tucker Craft week. Oh, Tucker Craft, he killed the Rams.

01:05:05 Speaker_03
And then the next week had two touchdowns. He does nothing anymore. It's okay. It's alright.

01:05:10 Speaker_03
He'll find us saying Josh Jacobs obviously is a weapon and like we could just list names But to me, it's they haven't even come close to gelling on offense yet And they're still seven and three and they're perfectly where you want to be like let the Lions get all the headlines Let the Vikings be sitting there with a tiebreaker over that like let that be there and then stretch run Here comes the come running team and the come running team might very well be the Packers who got their shit together at the right time

01:05:36 Speaker_02
Right. Maybe as a 5 seed, maybe as a 6 seed. We're aligned on this one. There's a scenario in my head this weekend where I'm trying to think of the narratives on Monday morning as you're staring at Kyle. Yeah. Um, where it's like Packers. Whoa.

01:05:53 Speaker_02
Do we believe this? Um, Niners. Oh no. Like they're not going to make the playoffs. Holy shit. And then there's this sneaky lions game and I, I'm going to full disclosure. I'm putting the lines in a tease.

01:06:07 Speaker_02
But it does have like, you know, it's a little sneaky. Just, it's a little sneaky. Cause Richardson, I thought played pretty well last week. And I thought in general, the Colts played pretty well.

01:06:17 Speaker_02
And you know, everyone's so high in the Lions right now coming off this giant win. And, uh, I think they can run the ball over them. I'm not worried about it, but I was just wondering, like, could this be five days from now? Yeah.

01:06:29 Speaker_03
We're like, Hey, Packers only a game back. Totally. And like one of these weeks, the Lions are going to have that game, but Gosh, I thought the Titans might have caught him, because Titans came in with the number one defense. They let them up.

01:06:39 Speaker_03
I thought the Jaguars may be playing for Doug Peterson's job with all that stuff beforehand.

01:06:45 Speaker_02
Oh, I'm glad you brought him up. Because that was the thing I was the most wrong about this season. Like the Jets, I walked in with eyes wide open, fully knowing it was 50-50. I really believed in the Jags as And AFC playoff team, right?

01:07:05 Speaker_02
And for me, it came down to them versus Denver for that last spot, and I couldn't get there with Denver because of the defense. Ironically, their defense statistically has been awesome.

01:07:14 Speaker_02
If you looked at it before the season, it's like, I don't see it, what's in here? And I thought Jacksonville, meanwhile, it's been the opposite. They're one of the five worst teams in the league. Doug's doing the dead man walking.

01:07:23 Speaker_02
They didn't even fire him after a 52-6 loss.

01:07:26 Speaker_03
They still might. Like, we're doing this on Thursday.

01:07:28 Speaker_02
They've got bye week. Like, I don't know how that's going to go down. Well, this is going up fast. So maybe if this happens Thursday night, the pot will already be up. So you think it's still in play?

01:07:37 Speaker_03
So I think it's still in play. I think after that loss on Sunday and all the reports that aren't coming from nobody that he was on, you know, he's on the death watch anyway. Like, they have a bye week. Who knows what the cons have going on this week.

01:07:50 Speaker_03
They might be wrestling or something else going on that they wanted to deal with in the first part of the week. But like, I certainly don't think I would be sleeping great if I'm Doug Peterson. No, he knows. Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

01:08:02 Speaker_03
Like, he knows what's going on.

01:08:03 Speaker_02
Yeah.

01:08:03 Speaker_03
He's got a statue.

01:08:05 Speaker_02
Are there any other coaching situations we should just be monitoring? Maybe guys not about to get fired, but situations that seem a little rockier than maybe it seems to the outside. Like, are we cool with Cleveland these days? What's going on there?

01:08:21 Speaker_03
It's fine in Cleveland, two-time coach of the year. And I know the relationship he has with ownership and there's like full trust in him. So I think he's fine. There was a erroneous report that Dable was on the hot seat. I don't think that's true.

01:08:35 Speaker_03
I think Dable's set in New York. Bears?

01:08:39 Speaker_02
Do we watch the Bears the next couple weeks or is that already a wrap? We watch the Bears.

01:08:43 Speaker_03
We see how they respond. Anytime you fire a coordinator and things don't get better, The next person is not the coordinator. That's the stuff that we look at there.

01:08:55 Speaker_02
Should I start doing that? Should I start firing inner circle people when I don't like what's going on to deflect blame? Is this work in the outside world? Not your fault. I don't know what's going on over there. That's it.

01:09:08 Speaker_03
This podcast is a weird strategy. I've had to change my offensive coordinator. You're the head coach.

01:09:15 Speaker_03
You know, the sick part about that was Thomas Brown called a really nice game for the Bears last week, and Caleb looked good, and energy was hot, and it's all for naught. Like, we still lost.

01:09:24 Speaker_02
But think about one of the things, like, in the stories and the dialogue after. It's like, Thomas Brown simplified it for Caleb. Wanted to get rid of the ball fast. He got rid of the ball within three seconds.

01:09:34 Speaker_02
It's like, why didn't you do that three weeks ago? You could have asked me. Just called me. Colt called me. I would have told you. He was holding onto the ball too long. Were you needed a new offensive coordinator to figure that out?

01:09:44 Speaker_03
I'm a McVeigh guy, obviously. Thomas worked for McVeigh for many years over there in LA, and before that was a University of Georgia running back. And before that, played high school football against McVeigh.

01:09:55 Speaker_03
So McVeigh's been singing about this guy for a decade. So he goes and gets this job at Carolina, a big promotion, flames out horribly, everyone gets fired. He goes to Chicago and it's like he finally gets a chance to be an offensive coordinator.

01:10:08 Speaker_03
He was high energy. He was, let's go. And I'm wondering, I'm like, You know, Shane Waldron, also respected guy, like and Matt Eberflus, those are not like high energy guys. Those are not big vocal guys.

01:10:21 Speaker_03
Meanwhile, you look at the booth and Thomas Brown is like super into it. He's pumping his fist. And I'm like, as stupid as that sounds like sometimes the young quarterback needs that just a little bit of juice. Like, let's go.

01:10:32 Speaker_03
So I'm curious to see how the rest of the season plays out. plays out for him.

01:10:37 Speaker_02
That's like what you did for me with Million Dollar Picks that year when I was in a slump and you came in, you just had a ton of energy.

01:10:43 Speaker_03
Mid-season edition, baby!

01:10:45 Speaker_02
Let's go! Well, Joe Brady seems like he's emerged as a possible head coaching dude. You have the Chargers defensive coordinator. He's in the mix for stuff. You have Belichick. You have Rabel.

01:11:01 Speaker_02
You have Ben Johnson, who I think just wants to sit at the bar in a cocktail dress and have people buy him drinks. I'm not sure he actually ever wants to be a head coaching job.

01:11:08 Speaker_03
Not even like two years ago, he was a Carolina guy and Tepper was like in on Ben Johnson. Like he didn't even take the interview. He's like, I'm good. Last year, I have it on pretty good sources. He was Washington's guy.

01:11:21 Speaker_03
They get on a private jet to Detroit to go meet with him again. And they find out while they're on a private jet that he's withdrawn his name from the interview process and he's going to stay in Detroit.

01:11:34 Speaker_03
I don't even know if he wants to be a head coach. And I don't think he loves the idea that he's looked at as this guy who flirts. He doesn't even flirt. He's like, I'm good. So I would imagine this is the year, but he could be picky here.

01:11:48 Speaker_03
I don't think he needs to take any job.

01:11:50 Speaker_02
This is the year, and I doubled down on it with my future picks before the year, but I was just like, I'm defaulting to good coaching. You know, like Sean Payton, over. Jim Harbaugh.

01:12:02 Speaker_02
I know it doesn't make sense, but I just feel like he's getting the nine wins and maybe making the playoffs.

01:12:07 Speaker_03
I had him both in the playoffs this year. I'm with you.

01:12:10 Speaker_02
Next year already, I can just tell you like Belichick and Brable taking over whoever. I'm just going to be like, I'm in on those guys.

01:12:16 Speaker_03
Why are you so convinced Belichick's getting a job?

01:12:20 Speaker_02
Well, that's a good question. I'm not. I'm convinced he wants a job.

01:12:23 Speaker_03
If he didn't get one this time around, and Atlanta obviously went down the road with him, why after a year will he suddenly be in demand?

01:12:33 Speaker_02
Great question, especially coming off of not a great Pat's year. I think Kraft was definitely poisoned in the well a little bit. I think he had a reputation as a curmudgeon and as a control freak.

01:12:45 Speaker_02
And I think the two jobs that made the most sense were Atlanta and Washington. Atlanta hired Rahim, who was a really, really, really good defensive coordinator who was gonna get another job. It wasn't like they hired a schmuck in Washington.

01:12:58 Speaker_02
Dan Quinn, it seems like that was the right hire. Great energy, defense, it's worked out. I don't really know if there's another job, like Tepper wasn't gonna hire him in Carolina.

01:13:09 Speaker_02
This year, Jacksonville and Vegas seem like the two spots that, you're bringing in Belichick, you're bringing in his whole infrastructure, he's gonna be in charge of everything, and you're just handing the thing over to him.

01:13:19 Speaker_02
Those seem to be the two franchises that just need someone like that.

01:13:23 Speaker_03
So that would be my guess. Let's go down the Vegas line. Brady, Brady hires, Brady's first big opportunity to, Brady's hiring his Belichick, his old head coach.

01:13:32 Speaker_03
And they're going to bring in Josh McDaniels and Mick Lombardi and the whole gang from, from like, they did that a couple of years ago. Like that was their coaching staff. They went the New England route.

01:13:41 Speaker_02
The only thing I would push back on is, are we sure Brady's going to be that involved? Good point. I don't know. You could tell me either.

01:13:50 Speaker_02
You could tell me he's going to be super involved, or you could tell me he just got a deal on a 10% NFL team and he's just going to be- So who does this benefit more, Brady or the Raiders, to have Brady as a Raiders minority owner?

01:14:02 Speaker_03
I would think the Raiders would say we would love his insights and have him weigh in on decision making when it comes to football stuff.

01:14:07 Speaker_02
I would say Brady because he got an unbelievable deal apparently in the team. He's got some legitimate owner, half price, like the NFL owners are pissed about it.

01:14:15 Speaker_02
Jacksonville needs, I mean, I think Vrabel because he's younger than Belichick should be a better candidate than Belichick. As much as I love Belichick, he's hitting his mid-70s.

01:14:25 Speaker_02
But I do think that's been a lot of this media stuff has been a rehab tour. See, I do have a personality. See, I can play the game.

01:14:33 Speaker_03
Surrounds himself with Chris Long, who's a super likable guy on television, a Chad Johnson on television, and he's playing along with those guys. Then he's on with the Mannings, and he's great.

01:14:43 Speaker_03
And he's doing McAfee, like he's just checking all the boxes. Totally. And look, if you're talking about who do you want to sit down with and talk ball with, or who's going to be the best X's and O's guy in the history of the sport, it might be him.

01:14:56 Speaker_03
I know these owners, I'm trying to think, I think Shad Khan is your best bet of who's gonna hand things over to Belichick and whether or not he- It's somebody who has a whole bunch of other stuff going and doesn't wanna manage it day to day.

01:15:09 Speaker_02
You deal, right? It's like, you take it, you go. Which is, I think, what he thought he was gonna have with Trent Balky, right? And that hasn't worked out. Yeah, and he thought he had that with Urban Meyer. And that didn't work out.

01:15:23 Speaker_02
I think Belichick's going to go to Jacksonville. And I think Vrabel will get a really good job. I can't imagine he's not going to be head coach next year. That's crazy to me.

01:15:33 Speaker_03
So he's been talked about, obviously, a lot. And a lot of people thought he got a raw deal in Tennessee, which is fair. He's won a lot without a real true number one quarterback. Tannehill was solid for a couple of years.

01:15:46 Speaker_03
Think about Ray, he's in Cleveland right now consulting, but it's, that's almost like, hey, just let me stay with the team. Let me help out where I can.

01:15:52 Speaker_03
But you can't pin any of Cleveland's season to, bad season to like, well, look, Ray Ball had a bad year. Again though, Ray Ball, like, former Patriot, all that. Is Brable the Jets guy? I don't know if that's a great fit in New York.

01:16:07 Speaker_03
I don't know if he wants to go there. I'm just trying to do mixing matching about what's going to be available. And I look at some of the places that are going to have openings. I think Bears might be available. I think Cowboys is going to be available.

01:16:18 Speaker_03
I think Jets is going to be available. Would you want the Cowboys jab? It's tough. It's tough, because he's going to be involved.

01:16:24 Speaker_02
You have these three giant contracts. It's basically like you're taking over the 76ers.

01:16:28 Speaker_03
And the owner, historically, has been very involved. They haven't had a real voice of pushback or resistance since Parcells. I mean, I don't think Wade Phillips was that guy. It wasn't Garrett, and it wasn't McCarthy.

01:16:40 Speaker_03
Those guys have been great football coaches in their own right, and when they had to be. But they're not guys who are going to scream at the owner.

01:16:46 Speaker_02
Yeah. Well, last year, the Chargers was the best job. You get Herbert, you have a team that underachieved because of the coaching situation, you have actual talent in place, it was all lined up for somebody to come in.

01:17:01 Speaker_02
Jacksonville, to me, is a pretty good job. If you're walking into it going, I think Lawrence can be a guy. I think he could be on the, somewhere in the Herbert May vicinity. He's just, they did this wrong, this wrong, and this wrong.

01:17:18 Speaker_02
We can build him back up. And you're probably watching every pass and play that he's done over the last four years, trying to decide if this was his fault or if this was

01:17:27 Speaker_02
the infrastructure, but at least, like, you go to the Giants, who am I getting, Tommy DeVito? Like, you go to Vegas, I have no chance of any of these guys.

01:17:36 Speaker_03
Draft picks, that's what you're getting.

01:17:38 Speaker_02
Or Chicago would be the other one, where you're walking in with Caleb, you have draft capital, you have a city that gives a shit.

01:17:46 Speaker_03
That's kind of what Canales stepped into in Carolina, if you get like a Caleb that just had a scarring rookie season, now how do I build him back up? You know, like Bryce Young was destroyed last year. How do I build him back up?

01:17:58 Speaker_03
That's a challenge in itself. Work in progress. Work in progress. I would, I would quickly give you a name.

01:18:03 Speaker_03
And obviously I say this and a lot of people roll their eyes because he's been, he was a head coach before, but like, depending on how the second half of the season goes in Washington, I think Kingsbury is going to be a name to watch because of what he did with Jaden out of the gates.

01:18:16 Speaker_03
And he's got head coaching experience. It's not for everybody, and he has faded in the second half of every place he's ever coached, whether it was Texas Tech, or Arizona, or even USC last year.

01:18:28 Speaker_03
But I would keep an eye on Kingsbury as a sneaky candidate for a few of these places, just because of his ability with these young quarterbacks, and that's what you're drafting.

01:18:35 Speaker_02
And I do think, you know... He was bad in Arizona. I don't know how much of it was his fault, but it didn't go well. Yeah. With that said, He's been amazing for Daniels, and if you feel like it's a quarterback match, maybe.

01:18:54 Speaker_02
The thing is, you have a 25% chance of hitting it with the coach. We're just watching it. There's eight or nine guys, and then there's everybody else. That's what happens. Would you want the New Orleans job?

01:19:04 Speaker_02
The shocking thing to me is how many jobs I wouldn't want that are available. It's like, oh cool, I get to take over the Panthers? If that became available, no thank you. Oh, the Saints. I get this.

01:19:17 Speaker_03
You're underestimating the egos, the careers, and what it means to be one of the 32. And a lot of these guys know going in sometimes.

01:19:26 Speaker_02
I get it. But not if you're Ben Johnson, though, and every year you have your pick. It's like, oh cool, I get to coach Derek Carr. Oh, like Aiden O'Connell for a whole year?

01:19:35 Speaker_03
Sean Payton tells this story about like he got interviewed by the Raiders in 03 maybe and he was the offensive coordinator of the Cowboys and Al Davis made the pitch and then, you know, the Cowboys came back and said, we'll pay you as much as they're paying you to stay as offensive coordinator.

01:19:52 Speaker_03
And he does. And then the next year he visited New Orleans and he was like, there were still tarps. on the homes from Katrina. We were embarrassed to invite free agents in because if they even saw this place, they would never choose to sign.

01:20:08 Speaker_03
He's like, we had to offer twice as much money to assistant coaches just to even consider this place. It's not like that, but

01:20:15 Speaker_03
When you go into these teams that are so much behind the eight ball, like it is a real, real hard sell to like a top, top coach, which is one of the reasons why you don't get some of the premier coordinators or the hot names going to these franchises.

01:20:29 Speaker_03
And everyone's like, all the fans are like, well, let's just hire that guy. No, no, no. A lot of times it's the coordinator has the choice or the hot name has the choice. And it's like, I'm not going to go step into that.

01:20:39 Speaker_03
I want to go to the place that's the most desirable.

01:20:40 Speaker_02
Well, it's funny the way we laid that out. Maybe Vegas is a more desirable job, because you come in and you're like, hey Vegas, no state tax, hopping city right now, doing great. We have the A's. NBA's coming.

01:20:55 Speaker_02
We got a baseball team coming, NBA's coming, like shit's going down. We got the NBA cup and they did the pool court. Home of the UFC, NBA cup, like shit's happening. Are you gonna go to the NBA cup again this year or no? I'm on the fence.

01:21:09 Speaker_02
The semifinal game, there's the two in a row games on a Saturday, seems kind of fun.

01:21:13 Speaker_03
But, uh, I will be at, I'm doing a double dip this weekend. I'll be in LA. I'm going to go to Nuggets Lakers on Saturday. And then I'm going to, I know I'd like to see him. Then I'm going to go to Eagles Rams the next night.

01:21:27 Speaker_03
And then I was thinking about extending the trip one more day because you have Ravens Chargers. So pretty good LA sports weekend here.

01:21:35 Speaker_02
That really is. Well, let's leave on that because we're hitting at a million dollar picks. Ravens, Chargers. Chargers sneak one out last week. It was a sneaker. Slayed some ghosts. Ravens could be seven and five if they lose this game.

01:21:51 Speaker_02
The Ravens are favored by three. And I've liked the Chargers all year. But something about the Ravens on turf coming off a loss is scary to me. What's your take on this game?

01:22:05 Speaker_03
I don't know, man, chargers are really good. And last week it was obviously all written to just charger it up and they found a way to somehow put their foot down and not let that happen again.

01:22:16 Speaker_03
Now, of course, the kicker from the Bengals misses that kick and it's okay, but it was all going the way it always goes for the chargers after being up 27 to six and they found a way to hold on and Herbert had to leave a drive at the end and he did.

01:22:31 Speaker_03
That was good. And at the end, it's like, Vlad McConkie has no demons and no ghosts from previous years. And J.K. Dobbins doesn't know any of that stuff. And they've got guys on defense who weren't a part of those teams. New coach, new feel.

01:22:45 Speaker_03
I could see them beating up on the Ravens this weekend. The Ravens Ravens last week, they finally get a good effort from their defense. They finally get this performance where they keep a team under 20.

01:22:55 Speaker_03
And on the flip side, they only run the ball with Derrick Henry 13 times. They missed two Justin Tucker field goals. They look discombobulated after the timeout on the two-point conversion. There's penalties all over the place.

01:23:06 Speaker_03
I don't feel great about the Ravens team. I didn't feel great when they won against the Bengals on a Thursday night and they gave up 35 points and 500 yards passing. Like, I don't know.

01:23:14 Speaker_03
I know the Ravens are favored and this game's on the road for some reason. I could see the Chargers winning in this game, 100%.

01:23:20 Speaker_02
It's a must-watcher. That one's great. Packers Niners is gonna be great. Some good ones. Rams-Eagles would be fun. We have a couple good ones. I think Dolphins-Pats could be really fun too.

01:23:32 Speaker_03
I heard you and Sal joking about, did you know that the Buffalo fans jump through tables? Where do you stand on the Harbaugh brothers going up against each other in a game? Are you good on that storyline or is it not enough? Is that what's happening?

01:23:43 Speaker_03
Yeah, they actually, so one of the team's head coaches. They're going against each other? I didn't see that, nobody's talked about that all week.

01:23:50 Speaker_03
It's actually kind of interesting, because one of them is last name Harbaugh, and the other one's last name is Harbaugh, and their dad actually coached, too, for Western Kentucky for many, many years.

01:23:57 Speaker_02
Same dad. Same guy. How many times did they coach against each other when Harbaugh was on Niner? Twice. They did a Thanksgiving game, and then they did the Super Bowl. Yeah, I don't, oh yeah, the Super Bowl. And John won both times.

01:24:10 Speaker_02
I still don't understand how the Niners lost that Super Bowl. I went to that game. One of the weirder sporting events ever.

01:24:16 Speaker_03
I'm sure you were there too. Long blackout, the whole thing was just at the weirdest level. Maybe I'm just the neurotic New Yorker here, but the lights go out and everyone thinks this is hilarious. I was freaking out. I'm like, what's going on?

01:24:28 Speaker_03
Like, where were you when it went down? I was in the press box, which is not easy to get down from the top of the Superdome.

01:24:33 Speaker_02
I was in a suite with the one and only Nathan Hubbard. And the lights went out and The first thought is like, is something horrible happening? Then the second thought is, what if the lights don't come back on, what happens to the Super Bowl?

01:24:48 Speaker_02
And then it was super disjointed, but the whole game was disjointed. And then all of a sudden they're on the five yard line first down, and it just, the pace was off, and it was really weird to watch in person.

01:24:59 Speaker_02
I haven't been to like a million NFL games, because I love watching them on TV, but that was I think the weirdest one I've been to in person.

01:25:06 Speaker_03
Frank Gore runs the ball down to the five yard line, Kaepernick throws I think three passes to Michael Crabtree. One of them may be to Randy Moss, of all people who was on that team, out of the end zone, and that's how it ends.

01:25:18 Speaker_03
It's a crazy, crazy Super Bowl that's forgotten in the lore because of the blackout, but it was, it came down to the final minutes.

01:25:24 Speaker_03
And like, that's another one that Niners fans add to like, there's a whole version of the beleaguered Jets, Browns fan, and no one's crying for Niners fans.

01:25:33 Speaker_03
They've got all those Super Bowl rings, but like, they have had some devastating playoff losses over the last two decades.

01:25:39 Speaker_02
Yeah, you're right. You don't think of them as the tortured fan base because they've been in it every year. But what was the last one? Steve Young?

01:25:49 Speaker_03
Yeah, it was Steve Young and the monkey off his back with Gary Plummer. Yeah, that was the last time they won a Super Bowl, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, Montana won four and Steve Young won one. Drought on par of the New York playoff football drought.

01:26:04 Speaker_03
13 years for the Jets.

01:26:05 Speaker_02
And then what was the last Giants playoff one? Was it Super Bowl?

01:26:08 Speaker_03
No, a couple years ago they beat the Vikings.

01:26:10 Speaker_02
Oh, that's right, the Daniel Jones game. I bet on that game.

01:26:13 Speaker_03
You didn't talk, we didn't talk about the Giants decision all year. There's nothing to talk about. All year, Drew locks number two. DeVito gets the call. So they're just trying to save money, right?

01:26:22 Speaker_02
It's just per game. No, DeVito brings a spark, baby. Let's go. Spark for what? They should want to lose every game. If I were them, I would play Daniel Jones every game.

01:26:32 Speaker_02
There's like, I want to, I want, the weird thing is the draft's goofy because the top two guys, it seems like are cornerbacks, right? If you say Travis Hunter is a cornerback, you can play a receiver sometimes.

01:26:42 Speaker_02
And then there's not a quarterback in the top eight. The two left tackles have fallen out.

01:26:48 Speaker_03
Just get ready for the Shador Sanders hype train, my friend. It's coming. It's coming.

01:26:53 Speaker_02
It'll be real. It'll be real. That's where I'll be getting off that train. You don't, you're not a fan? No, I like them. It's just, We do this every year with the draft, where we're settling with like, these are definitely the five, six, seven best guys.

01:27:04 Speaker_02
And then as we get closer to April, everybody starts talking them into these quarterbacks. Yeah. It starts rising up. All right. Say hi to everybody in New York. Great to see you.

01:27:14 Speaker_03
I wanted to talk about Jay Leno being thrown out of hell, but we didn't get to that point. That's just not funny, I guess.

01:27:23 Speaker_02
Listen, I will say, if I was the host of a conspiracy podcast, I would have done a lot of legwork on it, because it just, a lot of stuff doesn't add up. I'll just say that. I've been on some text threads today, wondering what's going on here.

01:27:36 Speaker_03
It's a crazy online story, and it's disheartening, because I like Leno. I mean, I think he's a sweet guy, and he loves to craft, but what are we doing? Hampton Inn on a Tuesday night in Pittsburgh, what are we doing here?

01:27:48 Speaker_02
Right. Well, and also if you, if you take it, you take like your own parents and just put them in the situation of some of these and it's like, do you know what happened to Bill's dad?

01:27:57 Speaker_02
He fell 60 feet down a hill and his whole side of his face is black. Like what? That's the weirdest thing I've ever heard. And there's some celebrities, they seem somehow seems less weird.

01:28:06 Speaker_03
And it's something so old school that like Inside Edition is doing like, it's like interview with them. It's like, what am I watching?

01:28:13 Speaker_02
Yeah, there's people doing tweets, like, you know, like, someone is trying to kill Jay Leno. How much evidence do we need? And it's like, eh, I'll at least investigate this. I'll kick the tires on it. Peter Schrager, great to see you.

01:28:26 Speaker_02
You're the man, dude, thank you. All right, that's it for part one of the podcast. Thanks to Peter Schrager, thanks to Srooti for hopping on, and thanks to Kyle Creighton. Remember,

01:28:37 Speaker_02
You can watch all the clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. And remember part two of this podcast is coming as soon as we can get it up. We're gonna talk about the Philadelphia 76ers.

01:28:46 Speaker_02
We're going to talk about million dollar picks and a whole bunch of other stuff. So stay tuned for that. See you in part two. Must be 21 plus and president select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and president DC.

01:29:22 Speaker_02
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01:29:36 Speaker_02
Hope is here, visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPENY in New York.