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Episode: Best Of: Why the Far Right Is Thriving Across the Globe

Author: New York Times Opinion
Duration: 01:31:27

Episode Shownotes

It was possible to see Donald Trump’s first election victory as some kind of fluke. But after the results of this election, it’s clear that America is living in the Trump era. And for Americans who’ve struggled to process this fact, you have lots of company around the world. From

Hungary to Brazil, right-wing figures with openly authoritarian goals have been voted into power, to the concern of many of the people who live there.A political phenomenon that spans countries like this — especially countries with such different levels of wealth, political systems and cultures — requires an explanation that spans countries, too. So we wanted to re-air this episode that originally published in November 2022, because it offers exactly that kind of theory. Pippa Norris is a political scientist at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. She’s written dozens of books on topics ranging from comparative political institutions to right-wing parties and the decline of religion. In 2019, she and Ronald Inglehart published “Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit and Authoritarian Populism,” which gives the best explanation of the far right’s rise that I’ve read. And it feels so much more relevant now in this country, after Trump’s decisive election. In this conversation, we discuss what Norris calls the “silent revolution in cultural values” that has occurred across advanced democracies in recent decades, why the “transgressive aesthetic” of leaders like Trump and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro is so central to their appeal, the role that economic anxiety and insecurity play in fueling right-wing backlashes and more.Mentioned:Sacred and Secular by Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart“Exploring drivers of vote choice and policy positions among the American electorate”Book Recommendations:Popular Dictatorships by Aleksandar MatovskiSpin Dictators by Sergei Guriev and Daniel TreismanThe Origins of Totalitarianism by Hannah ArendtThoughts? Email us at [email protected]. (And if you're reaching out to recommend a guest, please write “Guest Suggestion" in the subject line.)You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Emefa Agawu, Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Roge Karma. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, Mary Marge Locker and Kate Sinclair. Original music by Isaac Jones. Mixing by Jeff Geld. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin and Kristina Samulewski.Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rogé Karma. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, Mary Marge Locker and Kate Sinclair. Mixing by our senior engineer, Jeff Geld. Our supervising editor is Claire Gordon. The show's production team also includes Rollin Hu, Elias Isquith, Kristin Lin, Jack McCordick and Aman Sahota. Original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta.  Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Summary

In this episode of 'The Ezra Klein Show,' Ezra Klein and Pippa Norris examine the global rise of far-right leaders, exploring the cultural backlash resulting from generational shifts in values since the post-World War II era. They discuss how older generations, focused on material security, are confronted by younger generations prioritizing post-material concerns, leading to a new political landscape. Economic insecurities and a yearning for traditional values contribute to support for authoritarian populist parties, while social media has transformed political communication, amplifying populist voices. The discussion culminates in understanding how these dynamics create fertile ground for far-right movements across diverse nations.

Go to PodExtra AI's episode page (Best Of: Why the Far Right Is Thriving Across the Globe) to play and view complete AI-processed content: summary, mindmap, topics, takeaways, transcript, keywords and highlights.

Full Transcript

00:00:00 Speaker_01
So as the year comes to a close, I wanted to share some episodes from the archives that I think give some insight into the moment we're in now. Today's conversation is with the political scientist Pippa Norris.

00:00:11 Speaker_01
We talked back in 2022 about the rise in right-wing authoritarian politics around the globe and the work she has done on the concept of cultural backlash as its driver. Take a listen. I'm Ezra Klein, this is The Ezra Klein Show.

00:00:54 Speaker_01
It's easy to look at American politics as aberrational right now. It's comforting in a way. Maybe the whole problem, the whole question is Donald Trump and the unique magnetism and attributes he brings to modern politics.

00:01:07 Speaker_01
I mean, Trump is many things, but one thing he is is distinctive.

00:01:12 Speaker_01
Once a billionaire or maybe billionaire developer, known for being a businessman, a celebrity reality TV star forever in the tabloids with an unerring sense of what will get people's attention, who is somehow immune to the disciplining force of shame.

00:01:27 Speaker_01
Maybe that's a story right there, the particular package of attributes Donald Trump brings to all this.

00:01:33 Speaker_01
And then you have the weird dimension of American institutions, a Republican party that he was able to take over in part due to our weird way of doing primaries and the electoral college and the way we distribute power.

00:01:44 Speaker_01
So it's easy to step back from that and think, something's just wrong with America. Why are we taken in by this guy? But maybe nothing's wrong with America, or at least nothing specific. Look at Joe Biden.

00:01:56 Speaker_01
Joe Biden may be polling in the low 40s, and people can come up with all kinds of explanations for that. But that's better than other G7 leaders right now. In Canada, Justin Trudeau, also in the low 40s. In France, Emmanuel Macron, upper 20s.

00:02:10 Speaker_01
In Germany, Olaf Schultz, also in the 20s. In the UK, Liz Truss was at 9%, 9%, when she resigned as prime minister. And she resigned mere months after Boris Johnson had also resigned as prime minister.

00:02:24 Speaker_01
Nor is the Republican Party's ongoing competitiveness or turn towards a more reactionary, subversive message all that unusual. Italy just elected a far-right prime minister from a party with fascist roots.

00:02:35 Speaker_01
In France, Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader, she won around 40% of the vote in the final round of their presidential elections, doing better than she did in 2017. In Sweden, I mean, Sweden,

00:02:46 Speaker_01
A hard right group founded by neo-Nazis and skinheads won the second highest number of seats in parliament in elections earlier this year. In Brazil, Bolsonaro lost on Sunday.

00:02:56 Speaker_01
I mean, Bolsonaro is about as Trumpy a figure you will find outside of the Trump family, so it's a big deal. But he won 49% of the vote. It's hardly a resounding rejection of what he stood for or how he governed the country. That's just a partial list.

00:03:11 Speaker_01
The rise of these right-wing populist parties and politicians is happening in many countries in many contexts.

00:03:18 Speaker_01
It's coming in wealthy countries and poor ones, in places with high levels of immigration and low levels, in countries with a lot of economic inequality and much lower inequality.

00:03:27 Speaker_01
This is not just an American dilemma, not just a French one, not just a Swedish one or Brazilian one. And so we need theories that explain more than one country or more than one situation. Which brings me to Pippa Norris.

00:03:39 Speaker_01
She's a comparative political scientist at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.

00:03:43 Speaker_01
And in 2019, she and her co-author, the late Ron Inglehart, published what I've come to see as a really crucial text for thinking about the rise of global populist authoritarians.

00:03:53 Speaker_01
It's called Cultural Backlash, and I asked her on the show this week to explain it. As always, my email, Ezra Klein Show at nytimes.com. Pippa Norris, welcome to the show.

00:04:14 Speaker_00
Thank you so much, Ezra. Pleasure to be here.

00:04:16 Speaker_01
Tell me about the silent revolution in cultural values.

00:04:21 Speaker_00
So this is very much part of the legacy of Ron Inglehart, who we sadly lost from the University of Michigan. He was observing what was happening in the 1970s. That's how he started his work.

00:04:31 Speaker_00
And he went to Paris and saw people on the streets, young people, workers, everybody out demonstrating and protesting.

00:04:38 Speaker_00
And then he looked around in particular at Washington, where again, the anti-Vietnam movement was going, and also in Tokyo, where there were also protests in London. And he said, something is going on, and it's a younger generation in particular,

00:04:50 Speaker_00
college-educated who are leading the charge along with an alliance of workers and other groups.

00:04:55 Speaker_00
And his prediction was that in the 1940s and 50s, as countries emerged from the Second World War, in particular in Western Europe and in post-industrial societies, there was a basic sense that what was important there was materialism.

00:05:10 Speaker_00
In other words, growth, economic goods, better housing, better welfare states, making sure there were pensions and national health services, and those sorts of things.

00:05:20 Speaker_00
And particularly amongst the generation that went through the war, our parents and our grandparents, those who suffered from the Great Recession and Depression,

00:05:27 Speaker_00
The instability of Hitler, Mussolini, and all the changes involved with the rise of fascism, the Second World War, which disrupted lives. In that context, people wanted security. That was their priority.

00:05:39 Speaker_00
And they would join, for example, trade unions in order to negotiate better wages if they were in blue collar work.

00:05:44 Speaker_00
And they would increasingly buy their houses and try and get economic prosperity if they were middle class professionals, teachers, people like that.

00:05:52 Speaker_00
The younger generation, however, that subsequently grew up, in particular those who lived in their early years in the 60s and 70s, had a very different set of experiences.

00:06:00 Speaker_00
They could take for granted that there was a certain level of economic prosperity. Remember, there was technology that was taking off in that era. There were blue-collar workers who were increasing their wage packets.

00:06:11 Speaker_00
People could afford the nice things in life and they could go to college, which was a major revolution throughout Europe. As a result, they started to prioritize other things.

00:06:19 Speaker_00
And this is exemplified by the new social movements, think in the 60s and 70s.

00:06:24 Speaker_00
And so it wasn't just sex that was being invented, according to many observers, but many other things, the environmental movement, for example, and protests about climate change.

00:06:32 Speaker_00
There were changes in terms of protests about nuclear weapons and the old idea of military strength and defense. And there was movements in particular for women in order to get women's equality, the second wave women's movement.

00:06:44 Speaker_00
and of course the rise of the LGBTQ movement as well. And all of these, Ron basically said, were part of a single pattern and they led to new parties. And in particular what he predicted in that period was that this generation

00:07:00 Speaker_00
that was concerned with what he termed post-material issues, the quality of life, the ways in which we can improve our living standards, took for granted material affluence.

00:07:09 Speaker_00
And so they moved on to other issues and other values, which they regarded as much more important.

00:07:15 Speaker_00
In particular, freedom and autonomy, the ability to live your own life and to enjoy diverse lifestyles, to enjoy gender fluidity, for example, not simply fixed gender roles or fixed sex roles in the family.

00:07:27 Speaker_00
It became much more of a secular focus rather than religion, much more of a cosmopolitan focus rather than one that was based on nationalism or nativism.

00:07:37 Speaker_00
And so a generation grew up, and you can think about the hippies and a wide range of other movements around that period that challenged traditional values. Now, the silent revolution was such because it was a gradual process.

00:07:49 Speaker_00
It wasn't one which produced that many changes that were that visible, but it was one that gradually, rather like a rat in a python, went through the population.

00:07:58 Speaker_00
As the older generations died out gradually, just through natural causes, as they were replaced by their children and their younger generations, so values in society as a whole started to change.

00:08:11 Speaker_00
And that cultural cleavage, that basic division, started to be apparent in parties and in the issues that were being debated in politics as well.

00:08:20 Speaker_00
And so the old left-right cleavage between socialist parties, social democrats, labour parties on the left,

00:08:28 Speaker_00
in favor of high levels of public spending, generous welfare states, and probably moderate to high taxation to an egalitarian system on the one side.

00:08:38 Speaker_00
And on the other side, the conservatives, the Christian Democrats, and other parties who are European liberals, who favored fiscal prudence, low taxation, and low public spending.

00:08:49 Speaker_00
That basic economic cleavage was no longer as important as the emerging cultural cleavage over a wider range of new issues. And again, you can think about America as an example of this.

00:09:01 Speaker_00
And so think back to the 1960s and 70s, and you have those like, for example, Nixon, who were actually fairly liberal on many issues towards women and childcare and welfare policies.

00:09:12 Speaker_00
And indeed, the Republican Party at that time, many were in favor of reproductive rights and abortion.

00:09:17 Speaker_00
And on the left, you had Democrats, particularly those who are socially liberal in progressive areas, as well as Democrats who are more conservative from the solid South.

00:09:28 Speaker_00
And so the new cleavage started to remake political parties, party competition, and the issues which were critical in elections and campaigning and so on. So the silent revolution was a fundamental change

00:09:42 Speaker_00
in the basic level of society, which percolated up and gradually produced new issues, new parties, and new party leaders as well.

00:09:51 Speaker_01
Walk me through a couple of the pieces of evidence you find strongest here.

00:09:56 Speaker_01
If you were looking for, let's call it, three data points that, in the way they shifted from 1950 to 2020 or 1970 to 2020, that show the way politics has changed, what would they be?

00:10:12 Speaker_00
So we can think of the key issues. One would be something like women's equality and the idea that you remember after the Second World War, people went back to their traditional lifestyles.

00:10:22 Speaker_00
In the middle of the war, they were Rosie the Riveter and women were engaged in heavy industry, producing the bombs. Immediately afterwards, in the 1950s, we had real constraints.

00:10:31 Speaker_00
And think about Becky Friedan, for example, and the way that she described the role of housewives at that time.

00:10:37 Speaker_00
But in the 60s and 70s, when civil rights in America was taking off and when feminism was taking off, basically the women were saying, look, we're actually being excluded from some of these new social movements. We need to demand equal pay.

00:10:50 Speaker_00
And of course, at that time, there were major developments in things like equal pay acts and sex discrimination acts in many liberal democracies, as well as in the United States.

00:11:00 Speaker_00
And gradually, the idea that women should have an equal role in management, in the professions, and that there should be much more flexible sex roles in the home, that came to be accepted. That's normal.

00:11:11 Speaker_00
That's pretty much widely accepted in most of the established liberal democracies. Second trend, in similar ways, much more secular, but secularization, the decline of religion.

00:11:23 Speaker_00
And again, with Ron Inglehart, I wrote a book on that, Sacred and Secular. And as increasing security came about, so religion no longer seemed to be as important in people's lives.

00:11:34 Speaker_00
And you can see that through churchgoing, but you can also see that in terms of religious identifications. And it particularly started in the earlier decades amongst the Protestants in Europe,

00:11:45 Speaker_00
which had been the established church, of course, in many places, and where the church pews gradually emptied out, but it gradually also then affected the Catholic church, and that was accelerated by changes and scandals within the Catholic hierarchy.

00:11:59 Speaker_00
So secularization is a dramatic change. It starts at different levels in different countries. In fact, the United States was rather late to come to this trend, but it's clearly going on. If you look, for example, at Gallup or Pew,

00:12:11 Speaker_00
But in most West European countries, you can look at the Eurobarometer, you can look at Pew Surveys, you can look at the World Value Survey, and the proportion who see themselves as religious shrinks and shrinks over successive decades.

00:12:24 Speaker_00
In particular, what's left is the older populations who still, to some extent, attend church in Europe. but it's a very small minority now on a regular basis. By the way, people still often have a religious identity if you ask them.

00:12:36 Speaker_00
They will say, for example, I'm Methodist or I'm Catholic or whatever their religious faith is, but it's no longer vital to their lives in the way it might have been in earlier decades.

00:12:47 Speaker_00
And then, as well as that, we can think of other issues like climate change and the environment. And again, it was a small group with the Silent Spring.

00:12:55 Speaker_00
It was a small group who was concerned about recycling and very, very minor support for Green parties who were often not able to break into Parliament in the 60s and 70s.

00:13:06 Speaker_00
But it gradually took off until nowadays, of course, it's one of the key issues of our time.

00:13:11 Speaker_00
If you look at the most important problem in most countries, as we've seen from the headlines in today's papers from the UN report, everybody is aware of the consequences. Everybody is living through the consequences of climate change.

00:13:23 Speaker_00
And so, again, that is a major development which has altered our politics. and also society as a whole and our basic attitudes towards social values, what we think is important for us, our families, our governments and our country.

00:13:40 Speaker_01
There's something that you touched on briefly that I've come to think of as much more important here than people recognize, which is that this is generational, that this change in values was not a process of persuasion, equally distributed across society, where you convinced 40% of the baby boomers and 40% of Gen Xers and 40% of millennials

00:14:01 Speaker_01
but that it is successive generations showing sharply different views about politics and cultural questions and what is important in life than each other. Talk to me a bit about that process and distinction.

00:14:14 Speaker_00
So generational change is a really powerful force. It's like a tide which is moving in a single direction. And where a generation changes, we're saying it's not a life cycle effect.

00:14:24 Speaker_00
A life cycle is, for example, an attitude that you might be, say, more liberal when you're younger.

00:14:29 Speaker_00
And then as you settle down, get married, have kids, have a house, you might get more conservative and then maybe more conservative in later years as well as you retire. But this is a different idea.

00:14:39 Speaker_00
This is that you get your formative values and attitudes and norms, the basic things that you think are important in life, when you're in your socialization process, and that's during your formative years.

00:14:50 Speaker_00
So in childhood and in your adolescence and as you start to enter the workforce. Often, for example, the first party that you vote for in the past used to be the party that you would continue with.

00:15:01 Speaker_00
And these values are things which you learn from different role models. And so it could be teachers and schools and classmates. It could be your family and your neighbors and your community. And it could be values at the level of your society.

00:15:15 Speaker_00
And those values then stick with you in later life. You become much less fluid. You don't really adapt nearly so much once you're in your 30s, your 40s, and so on.

00:15:25 Speaker_00
So young people growing up in the interwar years, at a time of austerity, at a time of incredible economic uncertainty, poverty. Think about the Dust Bowl region in the United States. Think about the lines for unemployment in Western Europe.

00:15:39 Speaker_00
Think about the disruption of Germany after the war. In all of those cases, when you grew up in those circumstances, you prioritized security. you prioritise stability.

00:15:49 Speaker_00
You wanted often a strong leader who can provide you with order and economic growth, that basic idea. But for the younger generation, they could take those things for granted.

00:16:00 Speaker_00
And often, by the way, Ron Inglehart took on the idea from Maslow of a hierarchy of values. And Maslow thought of this as an individual, where you had various basic physical needs, water, food, security, et cetera.

00:16:15 Speaker_00
Once you fulfilled those, you can go on to other needs, such as those for aesthetic life, or other types of recognition or status.

00:16:22 Speaker_00
And what Ron did, and what was so brilliant in his early work, which he published in 1977 on the silent revolution, was to apply that not to individuals, but to societies. So if somebody grew up, for example, in Sweden,

00:16:36 Speaker_00
in those era of the 1960s and 70s, their lifestyle, the things they took for granted, the values that were imbued from that, were very liberal, very much ones of social tolerance, social trust, a belief in the state and the state should run things in terms of public services, that was taken for granted.

00:16:55 Speaker_00
But the idea also of a confidence that their lives weren't just within a country but were cosmopolitan, that they could be part of Europe and had a European identity, they could work and live and travel in many places.

00:17:06 Speaker_00
And their lifestyles were just very, very different to their parents, who in turn were very different to their grandparents.

00:17:13 Speaker_00
And as the older generation, as I said, gradually declined in terms of the population, still very important as a group, still, by the way, voting very highly, but as they were gradually replaced in the population by the younger generation, so values in society changed overall.

00:17:32 Speaker_00
Think about things like attitudes towards gay marriage. Again, even as recently as Obama, people didn't really talk seriously about the idea of legalizing marriage equality. And now, in many, many countries, it's taken for granted.

00:17:46 Speaker_00
Think about issues of, say, marijuana and that use, which was liberalized first in many European countries, like the Netherlands, and is now, of course, increasingly available throughout the US states, and is taxed like alcohol and so on.

00:17:58 Speaker_00
So values and attitudes and lifestyles changed. on a generational basis as younger people became gradually more secure in their formative years and as older people gradually died out as a proportion of the population.

00:18:14 Speaker_01
This can feel, upon hearing it, almost like a title pattern. Of course, every generation is more liberal, more tolerant, more open than the one that came before it.

00:18:24 Speaker_01
But a point you and the late Ron Inglehart make in your work is that this isn't true, certainly not at this speed. Can you talk a bit about the way this generational change we've seen has been different than what has been the norm throughout history?

00:18:40 Speaker_00
Yes, in particular, it can, as you say, seem like a deterministic theory of modernization, which is rather outdated. If you look around the world, you see different paces of change.

00:18:50 Speaker_00
But nevertheless, it is a broad, as it were, a Gulf Stream moving in one direction, but it can move back and forward. And clearly, those who are carried in these powerful forces can also move back and forward, depending on circumstances.

00:19:03 Speaker_00
So, for example, think about the economic crisis of 2008. Suddenly, people who had bought their own homes found themselves not able to afford the mortgages.

00:19:13 Speaker_00
Young people who might have assumed that they could easily get a job once they finished college, or if they just left school, found immediately there was high levels of unemployment.

00:19:21 Speaker_00
And a lot of people who thought that they were safely middle class suddenly found themselves moving backwards, that their pensions or their savings no longer really meant what they thought they had.

00:19:32 Speaker_00
And so you can, for a time, have a period effect in which the whole of society is suddenly pushed backwards, either economically

00:19:41 Speaker_00
Or think again about 9-11 and the way in which that made Americans suddenly feel a genuine sense of insecurity from terrorism. So events matter. Generational changes are long-term. Events are short-term period effects.

00:19:54 Speaker_00
But again, we would expect a period effect to have a short-term, as it were, blip.

00:19:59 Speaker_00
So everybody in that society might move back towards demanding either economic growth if there's a recession, or cutbacks in inflation, as we now see when prices are rising so much for groceries,

00:20:10 Speaker_00
or changes in security or changes in their attitudes towards immigrants when new events come onto the stage. But it doesn't still change the differences between the older generations and the younger generations.

00:20:23 Speaker_00
You can think of it almost like a layer cake. Everybody might move back towards demanding a different role for government and greater security at that time, depending on the nature of the threat as perceived.

00:20:33 Speaker_00
But still, the older generation tends to be the ones that is the most socially conservative, and the younger generation are the ones which tend to be the most liberal.

00:20:43 Speaker_01
We've been talking a lot about the younger generations and how they're changing, how they're becoming more post-materialist, more culturally liberal.

00:20:51 Speaker_01
But I also want to talk about that other group, the older generation, because these shifts are happening generationally, and that leaves a whole segment of the population who are, or at least feel themselves to be left behind by these trends.

00:21:05 Speaker_01
So tell me about that group and how they've been reacting.

00:21:08 Speaker_00
So, again in the 1950s, things which were central to people's identity, like patriotism and nationalism towards one's country, issues of religion and beliefs in God, and that the church played a central role in people's lives, attitudes towards marriage and the family and children within that traditional unit,

00:21:28 Speaker_00
attitudes towards what it meant to be an American, or what it meant to be Swedish, or what it meant to be British. All of those things were seen by many of the older generations and the socially conservatives to be under threat.

00:21:41 Speaker_00
They were no longer the 60% of the population adhering to those values. They were no longer the 50%. Instead, in society as a whole, as liberalism gradually expanded, they found themselves to be increasingly in minority.

00:21:57 Speaker_00
And so those views, which were very much led by younger college-educated and other social progressive groups in society, were really fundamental social shifts.

00:22:08 Speaker_00
But what Ron Inglehart's silent revolution theory had neglected to really emphasize at the time was that many people lost out from these developments.

00:22:17 Speaker_00
Many people felt that the things which they took for granted, the things which they regarded as important for themselves and their community and their country, those things were being lost.

00:22:26 Speaker_00
And as a result, you saw increasing support for what we term in our book, authoritarian populist parties.

00:22:34 Speaker_00
And this is a group which you can call them radical right, that's a very common way of labelling them, but they're not always right-wing in economics. Sometimes they're fairly positive towards public spending, for example in Scandinavian countries.

00:22:48 Speaker_00
What distinguishes them is that they really want to restore and push back against social liberalism, or as we call it in the contemporary parlance in the media, the woke agenda.

00:23:00 Speaker_00
And so you can see many countries which have got the parties who've been standing up for many traditional values.

00:23:09 Speaker_00
For example, on welfare, if you look in France, in Italy, in Sweden, many authoritarian populist parties, the Sweden Democrats, the Brothers of Italy,

00:23:19 Speaker_00
or the National Front or National Rally, as they're now known in France, all of these parties in particular push back on the diversity which comes from immigration, but they also have a larger agenda.

00:23:30 Speaker_00
They also push back sometimes on issues which concern reproductive rights, and so anti-abortion laws, for example, which were passed, say, in Poland.

00:23:38 Speaker_00
They also push back on LGBTQ and the rights of those groups, and particularly transsexual rights is something which has been a bit noir for many of these parties. And they also push back on globalization and thus the European Union.

00:23:53 Speaker_00
And so they really want to restore national borders and nativism benefits for those who are born in the country rather than having the diversity which has come about through increasing waves of immigration and the liberal values which have been the result of generational changes.

00:24:11 Speaker_00
So these parties are the parties which have been growing in votes, growing in seats, sometimes entering government in European countries, and really changing the nature of European politics in remarkable ways.

00:24:25 Speaker_01
I want to sit in this for a minute, because I want to try to spend some time on the psychology of this political tendency, which I don't think we describe well. And let me try something on you.

00:24:37 Speaker_01
I think there's one level of it that is very easy to see in polling, and so those of us who look at a lot of polling tend to fixate there.

00:24:43 Speaker_01
So you'll see that attitudes on immigration are very related to, say, support for Donald Trump or some of these other parties in Europe, and we'll say, okay, it's an anti-immigrant right.

00:24:52 Speaker_01
Or there's just a set of polls that came out today that I saw from the pollster Perry Undum showing that opinions on Black Lives Matter are extraordinarily predictive in America of which party you're going to vote for.

00:25:04 Speaker_01
As you can begin to assemble a set of policy ideas, so maybe that's – we'll call that level one. And then there is this sort of backlash level that you're talking about.

00:25:14 Speaker_01
which is this sense that you are losing power, that the world is being changed against you, that you don't have the capacity to speak, that you have to be silent.

00:25:27 Speaker_01
I think this is why there's so much power in free speech arguments, because people do have a sense. I know people in my own life who have a sense in their own

00:25:35 Speaker_01
day-to-day existence, despite the fact that they are not in politics in any professional capacity, that the things they have always believed have become verboten to say. They are sort of culturally dismissed.

00:25:48 Speaker_01
And so there can be a backlash effect in that. It often gets described as a feeling of losing power or losing hegemony. When I was reading your book, though, another word was used in passing, disorientation.

00:26:03 Speaker_01
I've been thinking a lot about that word because the people I know who are of this political tendency, what I hear most often from them is a kind of disorientation that the way all this change is experienced across a variety of domains from

00:26:20 Speaker_01
many immigrants there are, to what you can say about race, to gender fluidity, all the way up to things like inflation and the Fed and quantitative easing.

00:26:28 Speaker_01
There's just this constant sense of disorientation, which is also why I think the generation gap dimension is very important, because as you get older,

00:26:36 Speaker_01
And practically, if you're older, without a lot of tethers into society – maybe you don't work anymore, you don't see the people you used to see – it just feels like things are changing very rapidly.

00:26:45 Speaker_01
And what often seems to me to unite the parties that respond to this tendency is a kind of promise. that they will solve disorientation by making things the way they were. We're going to make America great again.

00:26:59 Speaker_01
We're going to have an economy built on manufacturing and coal. It has materialistic appeals at times, but also appeals around gender and gender identity and race.

00:27:11 Speaker_01
But at its core is a kind of nostalgic promise that you won't have to feel like your own country has changed in a way that you don't recognize it and it doesn't recognize you.

00:27:24 Speaker_00
No, that's absolutely right. That's exactly what's going on. And in particular, a nostalgia for the past, because after all, we're talking about people's social identities.

00:27:33 Speaker_00
You can disagree about things like taxing and spending, but you can cut the pie in lots of different ways and we can kind of agree to disagree.

00:27:40 Speaker_00
But when it comes to issues of what you can say, for example, what is socially acceptable in terms of race and ethnicity, or what's socially appropriate in terms of issues of gender or sexuality, then, in a sense, it's really getting at the heart of who you are, who you feel that your identity is, what you can be proud of, what your status is in that society, and what your moral values are.

00:28:06 Speaker_00
So a lot of these debates are bitter, because it's really us-them.

00:28:11 Speaker_00
Instead of being able to find a common ground for compromise, as you can on economic issues, cultural issues are the ones which really get to the heart of who people see themselves as, and how they see their community, how they see their country.

00:28:25 Speaker_00
And I think what's worth emphasizing here, Ezra, is it's not simply a psychological change, nor is it simply something which is changing in elites, like in Hollywood media or in journalism or in representation.

00:28:40 Speaker_00
But it's a real change in people's lives. It's a change that they realise is happening around them. They know that. They know that the clock really can't be turned back.

00:28:50 Speaker_00
And yet they hanker to at least respect that old forms of social status which they had when they grew up and which is really part of their own lives. Give the example of Brexit. Brexit is a fascinating development.

00:29:05 Speaker_00
After all, Britain had been a member of the European Union for 40 years. It had been parcel and parcel. They were our closest trading partners in Britain. And yet the way that it was sold in many ways during the referendum

00:29:17 Speaker_00
by those who were in favor, including Boris Johnson, was very much a return to Britain's greatness on the world stage. Boris Johnson didn't see Brexit as making Britain cut off.

00:29:30 Speaker_00
He saw it instead as a new way of reasserting, almost back to the days of the Second World War and Empire, where Britain was one of the major world players. One of the repeated statements was, the British economy is the fifth largest in the world.

00:29:45 Speaker_00
And much of the framing was about making Britain great again, just like the phrases there in American language for the Trump rhetoric as well.

00:29:56 Speaker_00
So people wanted to respect the old ways of doing things and to hanker after the things that they realized they actually were losing. It isn't just culture wars. It isn't just a cancel culture.

00:30:11 Speaker_00
It's a fundamental change in the nature of how society works and what the attitudes and what the values are. And these parties have come in and said, look, you need a voice and we're going to speak for you.

00:30:24 Speaker_00
The establishment, the old parties, the mainstream, the Christian Democrats, the Social Democrats, they don't care about you. But we do.

00:30:32 Speaker_00
And always, again, when Trump had his inaugural, you so remember that he depicted a place where the establishment was corrupt.

00:30:42 Speaker_00
The establishment was working for its own interests to get back into power and to pass things which they felt was appropriate. But at the same time, America was in crisis, and the culture was in crisis, and he would defend the silent majority.

00:30:56 Speaker_00
He would defend the average American.

00:30:59 Speaker_00
He would stand there and be a strong leader, pushing back against all of these other forces, and thereby restoring respect, if you like, for many of those who felt that they were no longer respected in American society, and their views were no longer respected.

00:31:14 Speaker_00
They were just beyond the pale.

00:31:16 Speaker_01
I want to try to untangle what you might think of as the materialist and the post-materialist appeal of some of these politicians and parties. And this is a very live debate here.

00:31:28 Speaker_01
Now, you have a much broader set of global examples and knowledge, so you can tell me how well it tracks elsewhere.

00:31:34 Speaker_01
But there is on the one hand an argument, you'll hear this quite a bit, that what's really underestimated about the appeal of a Donald Trump, maybe even a Ron DeSantis or others like him, Brexiteers, Boris Johnson, is that they are jettisoning.

00:31:49 Speaker_01
of the really unpopular, materialistic views of the conservative parties that they come to represent.

00:31:55 Speaker_01
In Donald Trump's case, promising not to cut Medicare and Social Security, saying it was a lie, but saying that he would raise taxes on people like himself.

00:32:04 Speaker_01
You'll hear an argument that all those things that people experience as Trumpism are actually negatives.

00:32:09 Speaker_01
And why he is an effective politician is if he actually takes on more popular policy views, whether or not he follows through on them than people realize.

00:32:17 Speaker_01
But at the same time, there is a transgressive aesthetic that seems to reoccur among many of these politicians. You can see Ron DeSantis trying to ape it and learn it from Donald Trump, as many other Republicans are. You can see it in Bolsonaro.

00:32:33 Speaker_01
You can see it in a different way in Boris Johnson, a lot of people who are involved in Brexit. You can see a lot of media figures in these countries.

00:32:41 Speaker_01
Can you talk a bit about the role of the transgressive aesthetic and what role that plays in responding to this politics of cultural backlash?

00:32:51 Speaker_00
So the transgressive ways of working is reflected in all sorts of aspects of populism. It's kind of part of its rhetoric and its appeal.

00:32:59 Speaker_00
You know, leaders who can put their feet on the desk, who can swear in public, as we think about, for example, Duterte and the language which he would use in the Philippines.

00:33:09 Speaker_00
or who wish to challenge the power of the state and the establishment, those who have tried to really criticize, in particular, many public servants and civil servants in many cases, or who push back on experts.

00:33:21 Speaker_00
There was a famous phrase in Britain by Michael Gove once who said, experts who need experts.

00:33:26 Speaker_00
And the idea that we don't need these authorities, that these so-called authorities, whether they're in COVID or whether they're in other aspects of trying to run economic policy, don't really speak for the people.

00:33:38 Speaker_00
And if we can somehow tap into something which is just the ordinary people. And by the way, this is all quite coded. Who is meant as the ordinary people is often meant as the groups who are white and who are born in that country.

00:33:52 Speaker_00
And of course, the diversity is kind of overlooked. So some people are seen as effectively Swedish or Italian or British, but not others. But all of those groups, these leaders appeal to in fundamental ways.

00:34:04 Speaker_00
And as you say, what's happening in the competition is that you can think of this as left-right on the economy, and you can think of this as socially conservative and liberal on cultural issues.

00:34:16 Speaker_00
And what many populist leaders have done is they've gone towards the kind of left center on the economy, And so they may be in favor, for example, as Boris Johnson was, of leveling up for the northern areas.

00:34:28 Speaker_00
Leveling up was the idea that we put more money into, say, Newcastle and Liverpool to try to make sure that the benefits of London were actually there in the north of England as well, where he

00:34:37 Speaker_00
where, of course, the Red Wall was where the conservatives made gains. And you can see similar processes where other parties, again, are in favor of welfare and in favor of strong education and strong health care.

00:34:48 Speaker_00
And that's particularly common, for example, the Sweden Democrats are along those lines and the Norway Progress Party always favor a strong welfare state.

00:34:57 Speaker_00
But they also want really to, again, go back in terms of socially conservative views on many of the other cultural issues which they feel they've been excluded from.

00:35:07 Speaker_01
I want to draw out the rationality of that view a little bit, because I think that there's a direct logic to it that is often missed.

00:35:16 Speaker_01
If you feel the culture has turned on you, if you feel that what is sayable and what is respectable is being enforced by institutions and experts who no longer care for you and what you think, then the need for politicians, for leaders who

00:35:38 Speaker_01
gleefully reject the gatekeeping capacity of those institutions and experts becomes very intense.

00:35:45 Speaker_01
I think this is something that is sometimes missed about some of these politicians, that people don't like, in my view, generally, some of Trump's excesses, his cruelties, the way he acts. Some do, obviously. Some find it very thrilling. But many don't.

00:36:00 Speaker_01
But even many who are comfortable with it appreciate that him and others like him don't seem cowed, because they're cowed. They feel cowed. And they feel some of their leaders have been cowed. People maybe agree with them, but won't really say it aloud.

00:36:15 Speaker_01
And then somebody comes out and says, Mexico isn't sending good people here, and we shouldn't let them send people here anymore and just build a wall and be done with it. It's like, yeah, that guy.

00:36:23 Speaker_01
And that there's something about, in a lot of these different places, the aesthetic of transgressiveness being a kind of

00:36:30 Speaker_01
A reflection of a commitment or a reflection of an unwillingness to not be cowed when the main problem some of these people are voting or feeling is a feeling of being cowed.

00:36:41 Speaker_01
There's like a more direct relationship there that makes transgressiveness a more essential part of the cocktail that I think people who believe maybe these parties could reemerge as economically liberal, socially conservative, but nevertheless genteel are missing.

00:37:00 Speaker_00
Yes, that's absolutely right. And it's essentially being part of the out group, the group of kids at school who are always excluded and picked upon and bullied and all that sort of thing.

00:37:08 Speaker_00
And if you have a strong leader who says, I'm for you, I'm defending this tribal identity, I'm defending the traditional values that you believe, I respect your values, I stand for you and I speak for you. Then, of course, that leads a direct appeal.

00:37:24 Speaker_00
And think about some of the symbolism. For example, Viktor Orban, when he speaks, he's used language which is really frowned upon in the European Union.

00:37:32 Speaker_00
He says, for example, that Hungary does not want to be a mixed race country, which is really controversial in Europe. He's demonized immigrants. He's used anti-Semitic language and restricted the rights of the LGBTQ community.

00:37:45 Speaker_00
He criticizes the EU very openly as well. And so in all of those ways, he's transgressive.

00:37:51 Speaker_00
And people who are outgroups, the groups of kids at school who were never part of the fashionable clique, they feel, OK, maybe the traditional establishment don't like me. Maybe traditional parties don't speak to me.

00:38:04 Speaker_00
Maybe the middle classes who've taken over politics and the media and college education in particular, and the changes which that's produced, maybe other people can speak for me instead. And that's very much part of their appeal, I think.

00:38:18 Speaker_00
Now, transgressive leaders often tend not simply to transgress in terms of their personal style or their language, but then to start to also, once they get elected and into office, they start to transgress in terms of democratic norms.

00:38:32 Speaker_00
So they'll push back on some of the niceties, and they rather overlooked them. For example, making patronage appointments to the courts of friends or partisans who they support, or basically breaking the law.

00:38:42 Speaker_00
There have been so many corruption scandals amongst some of these parties, some of which have brought down the leader, and some of which we've seen a revival after that.

00:38:51 Speaker_00
If we think about some of the cases, there are many court cases for some of the leaders which have been a fundamental problem.

00:38:56 Speaker_00
Or we can think of other ways in which these parties have pushed back on freedom of the press and also increasingly tolerance of violence. Now, are all the parties accepting these pushing backs on democratic liberal values? No, they're not.

00:39:11 Speaker_00
Some of them have actually moderated their views, partly to get into coalition. And that's an important difference, I think, between

00:39:17 Speaker_00
majoritarian systems, like the United States and the United Kingdom, and coalition governments, which are much more common in Europe, with proportional representation.

00:39:27 Speaker_00
So in a winner-take-all, if you're going to be transgressive in your leadership style, then it's often the case that presidents will try to also go for executive aggrandizement, pushing back on liberal democracies and liberal norms, basically.

00:39:41 Speaker_00
In coalition governments,

00:39:44 Speaker_00
What we often find is that where populist parties get into power, they often tend to moderate their language and they moderate their policies and they also don't push back so much on liberal democracy because that's how they can actually get a coalition together with some of their centre-right parties and then they make some gains on certain issues like immigration issues and immigration policies and restrictions.

00:40:06 Speaker_00
So there are differences there, but transgression is a common aspect of populism, a very common aspect indeed, even on things like accents and language.

00:40:44 Speaker_01
you These values changes, as you describe, have been happening for many decades. And you can see the kinds of politicians you describe also arising over these decades.

00:40:56 Speaker_01
In America, I think the classic forerunner to Donald Trump, as an example, is Pat Buchanan. But in your data and telling, something happens around 2010 that is like a step change in the success of this populist authoritarian tendency.

00:41:13 Speaker_01
Tell me why you locate that in 2010, and then what you think the cause of it is.

00:41:18 Speaker_00
So, as you say, these are long-standing parties. There were parties in the 1950s, left over from the Second World War, which were neo-Nazis, often banned as hate groups or made illegal, for example, in Germany. There were parties in the 1970s.

00:41:31 Speaker_00
The Front Nationale, or the National Rally, as it's now called, with Marine Le Pen, is actually celebrating its 50th anniversary. And you can see similar patterns like the British National Party in the 1970s. But they were always marginalized.

00:41:44 Speaker_00
They were always below thresholds to actually achieve seats.

00:41:48 Speaker_00
They may gave 4% of the vote, 5%, but it wasn't sufficient in order to have any sort of numbers, still less to have any sort of power in a coalition, still less to be the largest party in government.

00:42:00 Speaker_00
So what changed, I think, was a number of precipitating developments. and also some of the dissatisfaction, which is a long-term trend.

00:42:11 Speaker_00
So there's been a period of de-alignment in party politics in many post-industrial societies, and that can be dated again from the 60s and 70s, when what happened was that the mainstream parties in the centre-right and the centre-left

00:42:26 Speaker_00
So the Christian Democrats, the Conservatives, the Liberals, Social Democrats, Socialists, and so on, they gradually lost support. They were at their height in the 1950s.

00:42:36 Speaker_00
They went down from the 1960s, progressively the 70s, progressively the 80s, and party systems fragmented. The old loyalties were lost. For example, union workers would normally always support socialist parties and communist parties in Europe.

00:42:51 Speaker_00
whereas the petit bourgeoisie and the middle classes would by and large, particularly in the private sector, support the conservative parties.

00:42:58 Speaker_00
But those class identities weakened in Europe and the basis, the kind of foundations of party politics became much looser.

00:43:07 Speaker_00
People were more willing to move around in different elections or to vote for one thing for a local election, something else for a national election and so on. So this provided opportunities for smaller parties

00:43:16 Speaker_00
and it provided it both on the progressive side, like the Greens, who suddenly started to move up, as well as the support for the radical right or populist parties. And it takes time.

00:43:29 Speaker_00
All of these are processes where once you get a few members of parliament, you get a bit more of a platform, you get more credibility. People don't want to waste their vote. They need to have some sense of what the party stands for.

00:43:40 Speaker_00
And if it's always just the major parties standing for campaigning, they have very little idea. And particularly if they're demonised as being very extreme and outside the pale, people are not going to vote for populists.

00:43:51 Speaker_00
But gradually what's happened is that the populists themselves have become much more savvy at presenting a more moderate image on many issues.

00:43:58 Speaker_00
For example, many of the European Populist Party most recently, after Brexit, have stopped saying and stopped being explicitly anti-European Union.

00:44:07 Speaker_00
They said that that policy really wasn't the one that was giving them support and it was simply alienating them from the other mainstream parties as well and from many voters. So by making their more extreme elements

00:44:19 Speaker_00
the real hate groups and the groups who are really using extremism in politics by excluding those and by appealing primarily on immigration that was a rising issue in Europe, particularly remember the European immigration crisis when Angela Merkel opened the door in about 2015.

00:44:35 Speaker_00
That led to a surge of migrants along with the war in Syria and the war in Afghanistan and economic deprivation and economic migrants from Africa.

00:44:46 Speaker_00
So the economic recession of 2008, the eurozone crisis, which followed with very deep consequences for Mediterranean Europe, and then the rise of migrants, which is continuing, although that has gone down as an issue in Europe, all of those created very favorable circumstances.

00:45:04 Speaker_00
And again, all of these changes are gradual processes, you get, for example, 10% of members of parliament. Suddenly you might have a coalition partner. Suddenly you're much more visible. You also get access to public funds.

00:45:17 Speaker_00
And so for the next election, you're likely to be in a much larger position, much more effective position in order to get elected in that. And so we can see those developments.

00:45:26 Speaker_00
For example, Giorgia Maloney, Italy's first female prime minister, leader of the brothers of Italy. She just got 26% of the voter quarter.

00:45:35 Speaker_00
her party had roots in fascism but she abandoned that and she sought to tone down the extremism and really be pro-European Union, even pro-NATO for Ukraine, but still anti-migrant and anti-immigrant and she's basically now leading the coalition with Berlusconi and with Matteo Silvani for the Lega party.

00:45:55 Speaker_00
So The party became more respectable, the extremist image was less evident, and over a series of elections, basically populist parties have gained in Italy. You can see the same in France, if you look at Marine Le Pen.

00:46:10 Speaker_00
And in the last presidential election, of course, Emmanuel Macron won. But Marine Le Pen came second with 41% of the vote in the second round presidential election, up from 34% in 2017.

00:46:21 Speaker_00
And you can see a steady rise in a series of presidential elections, as well as elections to the European Parliament. So gradually, the party itself became more moderate. Marine Le Pen became more effective as a campaigner.

00:46:35 Speaker_00
She abandoned her father's extremism. And with rising de-alignment for the major parties and with rising disaffection with the major institutions, she has a basis of support. And you can see similar patterns in Belgium.

00:46:52 Speaker_00
as well as in many parts of Central and Eastern Europe, law and justice, for example, in Poland, in Turkey, with Erdogan, in Hungary, of course, with Fidesz, achieving a substantial vote, majority of the votes, and two-thirds majority in Parliament.

00:47:06 Speaker_00
In all these cases, it's a gradual rise of minor parties, and they become part of the government, and then, of course, the other parties also are in decline. The center has been losing ground, and it will not hold.

00:47:21 Speaker_01
One thing that you distinguish in the book is between supply-side explanations in politics and demand-side. And so there's the supply-side, which you've been explaining here. The parties somewhat changed. They trimmed their sales.

00:47:34 Speaker_01
They entered into new coalitions. But there's also the demand-side, which you emphasize, which is, I think, often overlooked in politics. What do people actually want, and why do they want it?

00:47:44 Speaker_01
What kind of politician will they respond to if that politician or party arises?

00:47:48 Speaker_01
And you argue that in this period, we've been seeing profound demographic and cultural tipping points that are changing the appeal of these politicians precisely because they are changing the desperation of voters for politicians like these.

00:48:05 Speaker_01
These politicians, in a way, are the response to a market or even small-D democratic demand. Tell me a bit about your thinking on tipping points.

00:48:14 Speaker_00
So, as you say, you have, just like any economic market, the demand side of the public and the electorate, the supply side, which is how the parties respond, including the major parties, in terms of issues.

00:48:26 Speaker_00
Do they take them on board or do they exclude them? And then you also have the regulations. You have the rules of the game. And that really is important for how successful some parties are versus others.

00:48:37 Speaker_00
So the idea of a tipping point is that if you've got a group

00:48:41 Speaker_00
and again it can be on the environmental group as much as the radical right group and they're only a small proportion of the electorate then in any majoritarian system there's very little reason to necessarily cater to those because you already have loyalists as your base and you have an established coalition amongst the groups who are going to support you and therefore you can appeal to those but if there's a tipping point and that particular tipping point angers and alienates the group that was the former majority

00:49:11 Speaker_00
so that they become much more aware that the values and attitudes and identities they hold are no longer necessarily in alignment with how the culture is moving, then the politics of resentment comes forward.

00:49:22 Speaker_00
And that's exactly where the populace can tap into this. So obviously, much of the MAGA movement in America is premised on the idea of the demographic replacement.

00:49:33 Speaker_00
and this is that the urban areas are expanding, rural areas are contracting, the white population is dramatically declining, particularly in places like California, as we see the rise in the number of Hispanics and also African-Americans and Black voters.

00:49:46 Speaker_00
And so we can see substantial social changes in class, in rural-urban, in race and ethnicity, in religion, and all of these are real changes in society. They're nothing that's being made up.

00:49:57 Speaker_00
As a result, those groups who feel that their identity is based on those assumptions feel that they're losing out.

00:50:06 Speaker_01
Let me pick up on something you mentioned there, because when I look at the timeframe we're talking about, this post-2010 period,

00:50:13 Speaker_01
the thing that immediately comes to mind for me is the iPhone, the rise of social media, increased competitiveness in the broader media.

00:50:23 Speaker_01
And I think this is important because there is the question of the ways the culture and society are changing, but none of us have access to the entire society or culture, and most people aren't sitting around reading polls about other people's opinions about cultural issues.

00:50:38 Speaker_01
So there's this question of how do you end up feeling, like what leads somebody in a rural area of Wisconsin. They feel like everything is different now.

00:50:46 Speaker_01
And it seems to me in a lot of places all around the world, at the same time, you have this rise in algorithmic media, in highly engagement-oriented media, that is constantly confronting people with usually stories charged around identity, in many cases at least.

00:51:02 Speaker_01
that really give, I think, often an outsized view of how quickly society is changing, but nevertheless are a very, very big part of a very rapid set of changing views, a sense of what you can and can't say, because people are now yelling at you in the comments section of your own Facebook post.

00:51:20 Speaker_01
Something I felt was a little bit under-theorized in the book is this dimension of the changes in media. 2010 is right around then, with the rise of smartphones, is a signal event.

00:51:32 Speaker_01
And in my experience of it, it's a signal event that tends to lead to people being confronted a lot more with whatever they fear most about the country they live in.

00:51:41 Speaker_01
And so the fact that that would lead to a rise in these populist authoritarian figures seems pretty logical to me.

00:51:49 Speaker_00
Yes, the book does not focus that much on political communication, but part of that is because I wrote an earlier book called Digital Divide, which really said that the internet, which was taking off at the time, started of course in around 1995 in terms of the visual browser, the internet is a tool

00:52:07 Speaker_00
and it can be used both positively and negatively for democratic engagement, for political communications, and for a variety of other things. So on the one hand, clearly, it allows anybody to break outside of their bubble.

00:52:19 Speaker_00
If they were focused in the past on their local newspaper or local television, They can now see the events going on.

00:52:24 Speaker_00
For example, they can watch live the Brazilian election on Sunday, or they could have watched, for example, Rishi Sunak when he was in parliament the other day as the first prime minister in his first outing.

00:52:35 Speaker_00
So it gives us a broader sense of information if you want that information, and if you have the skills and the cognitive ability and the education and the information to make sense of it.

00:52:45 Speaker_00
On the other hand, if you simply want to listen to your own tribe and you want to simply be in a media bubble,

00:52:50 Speaker_00
and just have repetition of exactly the same messages, and the rise of misinformation and disinformation, then of course you can do that as well. So it's a double-edged sword, the role of social media in all of these processes.

00:53:03 Speaker_00
Does it reinforce conspiratorial theories in the United States, but also in Europe as well? Absolutely. Does it reinforce misinformation and the pace and spread of misinformation both across borders and within countries? Absolutely.

00:53:17 Speaker_00
But is it primarily a driver of the support for authoritarian populists? And there I am somewhat more sceptical. In some ways it seems like it's too obvious a candidate to be blamed, and it's so many other more socially profound

00:53:34 Speaker_00
shifts in society, which I think have caused these developments, where the media, including legacy media as well as social media, are more of a reflection of what's going on than a primary driver of what's going on.

00:53:50 Speaker_01
Well, let me try to take the other side of this argument for a minute, because I think I'm more convinced in the other direction. Part of it is the way that these changes in media also change the reality of political systems.

00:54:03 Speaker_01
I am skeptical Barack Obama becomes a Democratic nominee and thus the President of the United States in 2008 and 2009 without social media. His campaign is the first to really use social media very, very well.

00:54:16 Speaker_01
And of course, the amount of money they're able to raise online is tremendous, right? He has to do something very hard in beating Hillary Clinton that year. take out social media, I'm not sure he does it.

00:54:25 Speaker_01
And if he doesn't do it, that also changes the way people sense society changing, right? Barack Obama is, as you put it in the book, a shock to the American political system. And so for a lot of people, the first black president

00:54:38 Speaker_01
is a really transformational event that arouses a lot of, let's call it cultural anxiety.

00:54:43 Speaker_01
But Donald Trump, similarly, I don't think Donald Trump becomes a Republican nominee without Twitter and Twitter's sort of tremendous capacity to influence traditional media coverage. So that's one level of it, that what is happening as

00:54:57 Speaker_01
Candidates who are intensely supported by portions of the population can get around some of the traditional ways you needed to go through gatekeepers to get coverage. That changes who can win and what kinds of things can be won.

00:55:11 Speaker_01
Then another level, you mentioned here about your book, The Digital Divide, and I think you put that a little bit on education, right?

00:55:18 Speaker_01
If you're thoughtful and out there looking to use the internet to your own benefit and become a more informed person and get more perspectives, Or you can use it a little bit thoughtlessly and get surrounded in an echo chamber.

00:55:30 Speaker_01
I think that's true, obviously. But I think we have a lot of evidence at this point that education and intention may not be as relevant here as we wish they were.

00:55:39 Speaker_01
That particularly because of algorithmic media, where it's not really just what you are choosing, but what the computer or the algorithm, I should say, is deciding you like, you start getting served up certain kinds of stories, certain kinds of voices.

00:55:54 Speaker_01
So I do think there's something, too, about the ways in which

00:55:59 Speaker_01
people who are very into politics now have this way of getting served up things that they're more and more into, which in turn creates all these dynamics that I think push people towards the edges and create a counter-reaction among their opposition on the other side.

00:56:15 Speaker_01
So I guess I'd put that as a provocation here. Isn't it at least plausible that one of the shocks to the system is that all of a sudden

00:56:25 Speaker_01
these kinds of figures and ideas and news stories and local news stories that once might have been somewhat marginalized now have this capacity to go viral and to create the political context we're all living in.

00:56:38 Speaker_01
I always think of Bolsonaro supporters chanting Facebook at his victory speech. I mean, I think they were right about that.

00:56:47 Speaker_00
So clearly social media has changed the nature of campaigning in many ways, returning back to its roots of one-to-one communication and one-to-a-few in group contexts, et cetera.

00:56:59 Speaker_00
And it's changed the nature of politics and it's changed the speed and the distance. Those two things have both shrunk on any particular political event.

00:57:07 Speaker_00
So immediately you can know if something's happened and you can follow it along if you're interested in that. Has it however changed attitudes, values, norms, and political orientations.

00:57:19 Speaker_00
And it's there which I just push back, because on the one hand it seems too easy to blame social media and the rise of the internet on some of these phenomena which are, in my view, based on deep roots in society rather than in just our processes of communication.

00:57:34 Speaker_00
And of course, journalists love to point to Twitter as the way that we all find out about information.

00:57:39 Speaker_00
But of course, if you actually look, we've included a whole bunch of new questions about social media use in the World Value Survey in the last wave.

00:57:47 Speaker_00
And when you ask people in most countries, including in Russia, but also in India, and also in many Western European countries, where do you get your most common source of information? They all say television. That's still the source.

00:57:58 Speaker_00
Now, are they watching television through their iPhones? Perhaps. But they're still watching the BBC or ITV or CNN or NBC, etc, etc. Are they reading newspapers? Probably not.

00:58:08 Speaker_00
But are they reading an article from the New York Times or the Washington Post or any of our legacy media? Absolutely.

00:58:14 Speaker_00
Are they also going towards the fringe of politics and reading other things from QAnon, which might not have been available in the past? Yes. But of course, again, we've always had for a long, long period, the rise of the far right through radio.

00:58:30 Speaker_00
So again, it's an amplification and it's an expansion. But talk radio, which was there for a decade, at least before the internet, also carried much the same messages.

00:58:40 Speaker_00
also reached a large audience and also created those sorts of senses of tribal communities as you could tune into one or tune into another depending on your political priors.

00:58:51 Speaker_00
So the internet reinforces, accelerates, doesn't necessarily I think change the bones of politics, doesn't change the ways in which we engage or how we get involved.

00:59:02 Speaker_00
And speed in itself, which is vital to journalism, is not necessarily how most people are simply responding to politics.

00:59:09 Speaker_00
As you know, most people aren't watching the politics on Twitter, they're watching Adele and things like that, which are also on Twitter.

00:59:16 Speaker_00
So sometimes we exaggerate how much attention, because we're paying attention to these things, we exaggerate how much everybody else is as well.

00:59:23 Speaker_01
I never think, I should say this very openly, I never think the power of Twitter or even a lot of other social media is its direct role as a venue of political information.

00:59:34 Speaker_01
It's that the people who are providing political information and making political decisions in all the other venues, the elites of the media, of politics, of technology, they're all jacked into Twitter all the time.

00:59:47 Speaker_01
The influence of Twitter is that all the editors and producers on the cable news networks and staffers for all the politicians and Donald Trump himself and Elon Musk and that they are disproportionately getting it and then using their sort of other influence channels to increase the salience of the debates that are dominant there.

01:00:08 Speaker_01
But I think something you brought up brings another very interesting counter-argument to the four. Which is, who's to say we're in any kind of unusual period of cultural backlash at all?

01:00:19 Speaker_01
I mean, you go back into the 20th century, you have Mussolini, you have Hitler, you have Father Coughlin, you have all kinds of populist authoritarian figures who wielded much more influence than these figures wield today.

01:00:32 Speaker_01
Maybe what happened here is simply that it has been far enough since fascism and other kinds of populist authoritarian movements were discredited, such that some movements that have more of this aesthetic can begin to reemerge in much the same way.

01:00:50 Speaker_01
Although, obviously, I have a slightly different view on it, that the fading of the Soviet Union has reinvigorated socialist politics in America, both as a substantive direction and as a label, because socialism isn't quite the slur it once was.

01:01:05 Speaker_01
Maybe the only thing aberrational here is this couple-decade period when these other tendencies were sufficiently discredited that politicians couldn't rise through them, and we're just in a reversion to the historical mean.

01:01:20 Speaker_00
Yes, I mean the starting point for any trend is absolutely critical for its interpretation, depending on whether you think inflation or unemployment has got better or worse, depends on what date you're picking and so on.

01:01:30 Speaker_00
So we certainly can look at the classic era of fascism and what we used to term totalitarian governments of that particular era, and the post-war era was certainly one which looked at that extensively. But also I think there is something new.

01:01:42 Speaker_00
If we look around the world, which we haven't really mentioned, is all the number of leaders in executive office who really have this broad orientation.

01:01:50 Speaker_00
We focused a lot on Europe, to some extent on the United States, but let's think, for example, India. the most populous democracy, which is backsliding, and Narendra Modi, emphasizing in that case Hindu nationalism against Muslims.

01:02:03 Speaker_00
The Philippines, until recently, Rodrigo Duterte. Turkey, Recep Erdogan, who started off fairly democratic but who's moved his country increasingly after an attempted coup in an authoritarian direction and against the European Union.

01:02:15 Speaker_00
Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro taking over from Hugo Chavez with a left-wing form of populism. Argentina, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Peronists, and a long tradition of course in Latin America.

01:02:27 Speaker_00
AMLO in Mexico is another example there, as is Daniel Ortega in terms of Nicaragua. Huguain was seen as fairly democratic when he first came in, increasingly authoritarian over successive elections. Evo Morales can be seen as a populist.

01:02:41 Speaker_00
In Slovakia and in Belarus, as well as Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, And there's even arguments which is expanding the notion, but maybe even Vladimir Putin is populist in certain ways. He wants to He's clearly authoritarian.

01:02:56 Speaker_00
He has tremendous coercive powers and financial powers, but he also wants to remain popular amongst the Russian public.

01:03:02 Speaker_00
So this idea of populism, depending on whether you have a narrow or a broad notion, if you look around the world, it's much, much broader than it was simply in the era of Mussolini and the era of Franco and the era of Hitler.

01:03:17 Speaker_00
It really has gone viral in many places in many developing societies. Sometimes it's stable, sometimes it's not. Sometimes we see presidents moving up and down in popularity or in and out of office.

01:03:29 Speaker_00
But it certainly seems to be a development which is increasing in power and rising as a threat to liberal democracy. And of course it goes hand in hand with democratic backsliding, the other major phenomena also of the period from 2010 to 2022.

01:04:13 Speaker_01
One other explanation you'll hear, particularly in this period, which 2010 is following the financial crisis, which was a global crisis, is that this isn't about race, it isn't about cultural anxiety, it's about economics.

01:04:28 Speaker_01
The left of center or even traditional right of center parties stopped delivering economically. They had stopped for some time. You had stagnating wages, say, in America, and then you had a big economic shock, which fundamentally discredited them.

01:04:41 Speaker_01
And what is being drafted on here is frustration. And that would also then imply a straightforward answer. If other parties can deliver economically, that will drain the potency of these populist parties.

01:04:54 Speaker_01
How do you think about that both as a causal explanation for the post-2010 rise of the populist authoritarian right, and how do you think about it as a solution?

01:05:04 Speaker_00
In 2015, when Trump first started to descend the Golden Staircase, this was a popular explanation.

01:05:10 Speaker_00
Political economists certainly looked at areas of the country in Europe and in the United States where manufacturing industry had declined, primarily as a result of Chinese imports.

01:05:20 Speaker_00
and certain areas such as textiles, such as computers and so on, footwear. And there was a correlation between the areas which Trump did well at and those areas of loss of manufacturing.

01:05:31 Speaker_00
And similarly in Europe, it was the areas which had lost the mining industries and extractive industries and so on.

01:05:37 Speaker_00
Problem is that this economic explanation, which appeared fairly plausible and is still advocated by some, doesn't appear so plausible when we look at it across countries.

01:05:47 Speaker_00
Some of the most affluent countries in the world with very solid welfare states, including Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, one of the most affluent countries again in Europe, the Netherlands, these have all got very strong authoritarian populist parties.

01:06:03 Speaker_00
Swiss People's Party, Progress Parties, Freedom Party of Austria, etc. So it's not simply the poorer areas of Europe or the poorer countries of Europe, like Bulgaria or Romania, which have seen the rise of populism.

01:06:15 Speaker_00
And also, as soon as you go to the survey data and you look at the individual level data, we can ask people about their economic circumstances. We can monitor their class. We can look at their income and their savings and how secure they feel.

01:06:30 Speaker_00
And when you do that, what you find, whether you're looking at support for Trump in 2016 and 2020, or support for many of these parties in Europe through the European Social Survey, is that the individual level economic indicators, by and large, don't predict whether somebody voted for these parties.

01:06:48 Speaker_00
Basically, class has been kind of flat. other factors, age and other factors like ethnicity, really trump the strength and significance of a class.

01:06:59 Speaker_00
Similarly, in terms of whether you have personal savings, there's also relative deprivation, whether you feel you're better off than your parents.

01:07:06 Speaker_00
So economics, the jury is still a bit out, I think, but most of the evidence seems to say it's cultural issues, not economic issues, which really are the cutting edge for why voters swung towards these parties.

01:07:19 Speaker_01
So then if simply delivering economically doesn't work, what does? What does a post post material left do?

01:07:28 Speaker_00
This is the challenge.

01:07:29 Speaker_00
On economics, clearly, the natural solution, whether it was for Biden or whether it was for Keir Starmer in the Labour Party in Britain, or for many other leaders of social democratic parties, is to say, well, we'll just go back and we'll improve the areas where we lost some votes.

01:07:44 Speaker_00
And that means things like jobs programmes. It means training. It means expanding college access. It means improving work opportunities. housing, roads, you know, all of those things which are very familiar.

01:07:57 Speaker_00
The assumption is that we can follow social democratic policies, expand all of these services, improve rail transport, for example, have levelling up, improve educational opportunities, particularly apprenticeship programs, for example, for the less skilled, so they don't necessarily need to go to university, but they can get practical skills as plumbers, electricians, and so on, and in the new green industries.

01:08:17 Speaker_00
All of that is a set of assumptions that social democratic parties on the left are very comfortable with. problem is that it's not clear that this is the driver of the support if it's the cultural issues.

01:08:29 Speaker_00
And the problem about the cultural issues is that the parties on the left are totally divided internally.

01:08:36 Speaker_00
On issues like reproductive rights, on issues like diversity and immigration, on issues like changing immigration policies or backtracking, for example, on LGBTQ rights, it's impossible for many of these parties to consider diluting or reversing some of those liberal gains.

01:08:56 Speaker_00
and they can't also thereby appeal to the classic working class base which is very much more traditional and more conservative on those sorts of issues. So they're stuck between a rock and a hard place and I think this is their fundamental dilemma.

01:09:10 Speaker_00
It's far easier for the parties on the centre-right to adapt they can basically go into bed with the populist parties and they can change the immigration policies, which they have.

01:09:19 Speaker_00
That's the big area where populist parties have made a big success in Western Europe. And they can also continue with their economic policies, which are fairly libertarian, tax cuts and things like that.

01:09:29 Speaker_00
And you can have a coalition which is kind of accommodated. But left parties have to go into bed with greens. They can't basically have any sort of compromise with the authoritarian populist parties. It's just impossible in their makeup.

01:09:44 Speaker_01
But particularly if you understand a lot of what's happening here as a set of anxieties, not just a set of policies, that would at least seem to me to open up strategies that are a little bit different.

01:09:57 Speaker_01
So I always think of Obama as having been fairly masterful as a politician at this.

01:10:03 Speaker_01
I think now there's a tendency to look back at him and read him a little bit overly literally, that he didn't support gay marriage or had this or that position on immigration.

01:10:14 Speaker_01
But he really always paired in a very, very explicit way this excitement about change, hope in change, change we can believe in. with a constant effort to answer and reassure cultural anxiety.

01:10:32 Speaker_01
And it often seems to me that one or the other gets chosen. You either see politicians who are good at emphasizing how much change they are going to bring, or even if they're not good at it, that's what they are doing.

01:10:41 Speaker_01
So you might think of an Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who I think is very good at representing change, or Hillary Clinton, who talked very intensely about how much change she would bring and what it would mean for her to be elected.

01:10:54 Speaker_01
but don't do very much to try to reassure people who are nervous about the way the world is changing.

01:10:59 Speaker_01
Or you can look at somebody, I think, like Joe Biden, and there are other figures like him who are oriented at trying not to arouse too much anxiety around change, right?

01:11:10 Speaker_01
They want to try to keep their coalition together, but they are there to be acceptable in a way to voters who are outside the coalition. It's very well established, I think, at this point.

01:11:20 Speaker_01
that the Joe Biden 2020 primary campaign wins on this theory of electability, wins on a theory that he'll be acceptable to other people.

01:11:29 Speaker_01
And that theory actually turns out to be true, but that there is some kind of synthesis here for talented politicians where they are simultaneously

01:11:39 Speaker_01
either themselves representing or able to tell a story of change while quite explicitly trying to tell a story of why that does not have to leave people out.

01:11:52 Speaker_01
But I do think there – look, I don't win elections, I've not done it, but I observe and report on politicians.

01:11:58 Speaker_01
And I have just noticed a kind of literalism creeping into it, as if the only variables on the board are what literal positions you take on policies. And I'm a policy guy, and I track policy positions, and I track policies.

01:12:11 Speaker_01
But Joe Biden has a lot of very popular policies. They're much more popular than the policies Donald Trump pushed, and they have functionally the same approval rating right now, as the other one did at a similar point.

01:12:23 Speaker_01
And there's other confounding factors here. I don't think it is so as impossible as people have begun to make it sound to be optimistic about the future and conscious of the fact that many people are fearful about the future.

01:12:37 Speaker_01
Now you have to be a very talented politician to do that, but you can always have to be a talented politician to change politics.

01:12:45 Speaker_00
it does depend on the issue dimension. So if we're talking about economics, of course, they're promising a better life and prosperity and affluence and minimal pain that will go along with that.

01:12:58 Speaker_00
Although, of course, under periods of inflation, people do realise that there has to be pain as well. On foreign policy, dramatic changes which they can

01:13:05 Speaker_00
implement in terms of internationalism versus nationalism, in terms of engagement in Ukraine versus isolationism, and so on.

01:13:12 Speaker_00
So those are things which you can see how politicians can promise certain deliverables and try to achieve those, and people can be confirmed. But when it comes to culture, I just think it's far more difficult.

01:13:24 Speaker_00
When it comes to immigration, it's far more difficult to promise that on the one hand you're going to

01:13:30 Speaker_00
make America great again, you're going to make Sweden Swedish, as people said in the Democratic Party there, or that you're going to reverse some of the things which allowed these populist parties to come to office.

01:13:42 Speaker_00
I've been obsessed in the last couple of weeks, of course, with the leadership contest in the Conservative Party, as you might be able to tell. Yes, and I think about how the leadership has changed, right?

01:13:53 Speaker_00
So on the one hand, Corbyn suggested radical economic change, so radical that nobody would vote for him because he really was pretty far left, and he was kind of insular in how he saw that. And Boris Johnson said, get Brexit done.

01:14:08 Speaker_00
So he promised to follow through on the referendum, which was popular at the time, or at least enough popularity. After Johnson, of course, we had the six-week experience of Liz Truss, who promised radical change, and everything went nuts.

01:14:21 Speaker_00
It was basically a government of chaos, and inflation soared, and the pound dropped, and bond markets went mad, and so on.

01:14:30 Speaker_00
Now, of course, what we have, essentially, if you saw this last Prime Minister's Question Time, was two politicians, both of whom are very kind of sensible, middle-of-the-road, somewhat boring. They do not want to promise much change.

01:14:43 Speaker_00
They want to promise continuity, restoration, but Rishi Sunak wants to say things are going to be stable and we're not going to have the chaos of either trust or the drama. and scandals of the Johnson administration.

01:14:58 Speaker_00
At the same time, whilst he's putting forward a number of different financial options to try and increase economic stability and reduce economic instability, he's not changing on immigration policy.

01:15:10 Speaker_00
That's a legacy of the previous administration with some fairly extreme measures and the simple reason why he can't change on that is he feels if he does that the Populist Party will rush in and Nigel Farage will come back to life and the Conservatives will really be going into an election facing

01:15:30 Speaker_00
a moderately sensible and solid Labour party on the one side, very popular, 30 points ahead in the polls in the recent period, and then also being eaten on the far right by the anti-immigrant policies of a Nigel Farage or any sort of far-right party at that side as well.

01:15:49 Speaker_00
So some changes reassuring. But where populists say, let's go backwards, let's reassure by not having too much change, then it's very difficult to face both forwards and backwards on some of these classic issues.

01:16:03 Speaker_01
Let me ask about another cut there, this cut between the cultural issues and the economic issues. This is something that has been on my mind a lot, reading your work and just thinking about the conversations I have with people about inflation.

01:16:17 Speaker_01
I was talking earlier about disorientation as an emotion here, as a politically salient emotion, a sense that things are changing, they're not right, this isn't the country you knew.

01:16:27 Speaker_01
And a lot of what I hear in inflation discourse sounds much more like what I hear in what gets called cultural discourse than what I would understand as normal economic discussion. Something's going wrong.

01:16:42 Speaker_01
We're losing the country and the economy we once had. And it's made me think a bit about the ways you can have materialistic and post-materialistic responses to economic issues.

01:16:54 Speaker_01
So you might think of this as like the Paul Ryan, Ron Paul or Mitt Romney, Ron Paul divide. The economy wasn't great around 2012. It was coming back, but it wasn't great.

01:17:05 Speaker_01
And some people responded to that in the Republican Party by saying, we need Mitt Romney, a sober, private equity guy, knows how to lead things, knows how to run a corporate office, knows how to manage. And others said, we need Ron Paul.

01:17:21 Speaker_01
We need to go back to gold. And I think both of these tendencies live in the appeals of Donald Trump. But it makes me wonder a bit whether or not we overly code economics as materialistic.

01:17:35 Speaker_01
Because oftentimes, a lot of the debates about economics end up having this implicit question

01:17:41 Speaker_01
about whether or not what you're looking for here is what you might call technocratic management of the economy, or what you're looking for is a sense, what you're feeling, experiencing is a sense that too much here has changed.

01:17:54 Speaker_01
We used to know what we're doing, and now we've gotten away from the wisdom of our forefathers. And we need gold, we need to bind the Federal Reserve, we need not so much debt, whatever it might be, that there's a tendency to experience those

01:18:09 Speaker_01
through the same lens of disorientation, the same lens of too much has changed and it has robbed us of what makes us great.

01:18:17 Speaker_01
And that sometimes the effort politically to try to answer economic fears as simply economic, as opposed to as part of this larger miasma of anxiety, and particularly of generational anxiety, is actually quite misguided.

01:18:33 Speaker_00
No, I think that is right, and that when we see prices rising so sharply in groceries and people's lifestyles, when we see the mortgage rate rising so that people are no longer able to renew their mortgages and may have to lose their homes, and we see other sorts of economic crisis, then that is going to create tremendous anxiety

01:18:53 Speaker_00
which is both cultural as well as purely materialistic. And if you go back to Ron's early work, he would say that when you get an economic crisis, of course, there's rise in importance.

01:19:04 Speaker_00
And if you perceive it as an economic crisis, whether it is or is not, for example, in your family or in your community, then it's genuine. And then those material concerns come back and you want basically competence in your government.

01:19:16 Speaker_00
You want a government of technocrats or at least a government that can deliver basic economic security.

01:19:21 Speaker_00
Once that's secured and you're into a period of growth and prosperity, or at least steady growth, then that's the time in which these other concerns rise to the surface and you can start to be concerned about the quality of life and personal relationships and a wide variety of other aspects which are affecting society, like social cohesion or social order.

01:19:43 Speaker_00
So the two things aren't isolated by any means. They interact

01:19:48 Speaker_01
One implication of framing much of this or understanding much of this as generational conflict is that generations age out of the electorate. And that's something you say in the book, that we might be in this lag.

01:20:03 Speaker_01
On the one hand, there's more cultural backlash because the younger generations have gotten older, they've gotten bigger.

01:20:10 Speaker_01
And as such, what used to be the counterculture has become the culture, and that's made what used to be the culture feel resentful, feel silenced, and created a yearning for these transgressive, strongman politicians who can put things back the way they were, re-empower you, make you feel safe in your own country again.

01:20:28 Speaker_01
But year by year, the size of the Millennials and then the Gen Z-ers is getting bigger.

01:20:36 Speaker_01
And it sort of seems to me that you see what we're in as a kind of lag period between when the younger generations are big enough for their politics to really dominate, and the older generations are small enough for their politics to be a more, obviously, minoritarian tendency.

01:20:54 Speaker_01
On the other hand, ideas of demographic determinism have become quite unsafe in politics recently, partly given how wrong Democrats were about what the Browning of America would look like for them. So how do you see this? Are we in a lag?

01:21:06 Speaker_01
Should we expect this to just be a kind of period of turbulence, and then in 15 years, we'll have resettled into a new normal? What's your projection in the slightly longer frame?

01:21:16 Speaker_00
So secular changes, long-term changes by generation, are pretty evident. You can see these patterns across many different societies, across many different surveys, and across many different time periods, where we have panel surveys and so on.

01:21:30 Speaker_00
And there are things like greater secularization and the decline of religiosity, which has been evident. Problem is that generational changes take a long time to have any sort of effect. And so when you are changing, as we say, with this tipping point,

01:21:45 Speaker_00
where the majority population that once took for granted certain values sees that they've become a large but still minority within their own societies, when you've become from 60 percent down to 50 percent down to 40 percent.

01:22:01 Speaker_00
Coincidentally, by the way, almost most of the indicators throughout Trump's period in office showed that about 40% of the population consistently in America supported him, approved of him, voted for him, and so on.

01:22:13 Speaker_00
When you become 40%, but you still outvote and you're still energized, then you're both angry and energized to be active. and you're still having some clout, largely because the younger generation are not so active in conventional politics.

01:22:29 Speaker_00
As you become the 30% and the 20%, you're much more likely to get a process in which you feel you can no longer speak up because of social pressures. Here you come across what Elizabeth Noel Newman used to talk about, self-censorship.

01:22:43 Speaker_00
And so, for example, racist attitudes that could be expressed, say, decades ago in the 50s are no longer acceptable in society. And then you yourself no longer feel that you can say things once you become a small minority.

01:22:56 Speaker_00
But of course, again, that takes a long time. And the real question for me is this. Can we actually get to that demographic change?

01:23:05 Speaker_00
or by the time, in particular, the United States gets to that, is the political system and democracy as we know it going to be so changed by those who have politicized the refusal to accept the decline that we can no longer have effective political representation?

01:23:22 Speaker_00
And there are so many indicators of that, which everybody is aware of, where candidates increasingly no longer say that they will accept the results if they lose,

01:23:31 Speaker_00
where we see changes to laws which are going to minimize some of the demographic changes or attempt to minimize them, for example, for minority communities, when we see many other changes to the electoral system or to the political system.

01:23:46 Speaker_00
It's not clear to me that the long-term generational rise of liberal values, which I do think is happening and which there's solid evidence in the polls, is necessarily going to trump all these other aspects which are changing the political institutions in America

01:24:01 Speaker_00
and really are weakening democracy and the public's faith in the norms of democracy in America.

01:24:08 Speaker_00
And I think we can see these changes also in, again, some other countries, Hungary being a case which clearly comes to mind, but many other also countries where increasing social intolerance as these changes occur, lack of social trust, lack of trust in institutions,

01:24:25 Speaker_00
Lack of the glue that holds communities together and holds countries together is increasingly becoming evident as these minority parties and candidates and presidents come to power.

01:24:36 Speaker_00
So it's really a question of long-term change, yes, but politics gets in the way and other things may not hold in order to allow that representational change to actually occur. That, again, the jury is still out.

01:24:51 Speaker_01
I think that's a good place to end. So always our final question, what are three books that you'd recommend to the audience?

01:24:57 Speaker_00
So where does all of this leave us?

01:25:00 Speaker_00
I think one of the big questions, which I'm really fascinated about and which I've been working on in recent months, is to think about the basis of popular support for authoritarian leaders, the basis of support for attitudes towards democracy and democratic norms.

01:25:15 Speaker_00
And I think we're getting some new literature which really starts to look at that. And I'd like to recommend three. Firstly,

01:25:22 Speaker_00
When we think about dictatorships, like for example, Putin in Russia, or many other cases, Lukashenko in Belarus, President Xi in China, we assume that they're in power because they exert coercive power.

01:25:35 Speaker_00
They have control of the military, the police, the security forces, they can throw their opponents into jail, or they have power which arises from patronage, state ownership, licenses, oligarchs, they can distribute largesse and corruption.

01:25:49 Speaker_00
But the new literature really says maybe there's genuine support for authoritarian strongman leaders who promise security and order, and that many people may feel that that's a priority, not freedom and not the chaos that can be attributed to democracy.

01:26:06 Speaker_00
So the first book, Alexander Matovsky, Popular Dictatorships. He has used some really interesting new data, particularly from Russia and from Central and Eastern Europe,

01:26:17 Speaker_00
to say that maybe leaders have actually really risen, partly because of deep political and economic insecurity crisis, by promising efficient strong-armed rule, tempered by some form of elections, some form of popular debate, maybe leaders like Putin have actually got public support behind them.

01:26:40 Speaker_00
Now, we don't know for sure.

01:26:42 Speaker_00
It may be that the opinion polls aren't reliable, that's entirely possible, but I think that's a really interesting new take on how we explain the rise of authoritarianism and the backsliding of democracy in many countries around the world.

01:26:58 Speaker_00
Second book, which builds on that, is another good book by Sergei Guryov and Daniel Treisman. And the book is called Spin Dictators, and it's about the changing face of tyranny in the 21st century.

01:27:11 Speaker_00
And again, it's going back to many of the dictators and authoritarian regimes and saying, what's the basis of their support? Well, again, in the past,

01:27:20 Speaker_00
it would be that there'd be a military coup d'etat, as in Myanmar, and the generals would basically come into power. The same is true in Egypt. But increasingly, what you find today is the use of propaganda in a way that hasn't been used in the past.

01:27:34 Speaker_00
Propaganda's always been there. It was there, for example, with Goebbels in Germany. It's been there with Mussolini in use of radio and so on. But nowadays, what we have is electoral authoritarian regimes

01:27:48 Speaker_00
and they've learned that if they manipulate and fake democracy, and they manipulate the information which is available through censorship, a traditional technique, but also through very effective control, again this can be how they can maintain popular support.

01:28:05 Speaker_00
And the last book is a classic. It's not a modern study,

01:28:08 Speaker_00
But I think we now need to go back to read Hannah Arendt, and we need to read the origins of totalitarianism, and reflect on the developments of the 20s and the 30s, and reflect on the nature of, again, how these regimes came to power.

01:28:24 Speaker_00
A classic book written in the aftermath of the Second World War, but so many of the things which she was writing about, the birth of antisemitism, for example, the Dreyfus affair,

01:28:36 Speaker_00
the role of race, of how we can think about the petit bourgeoisie who are supporting strongman rulers, and how we can think about class and totalitarian movements.

01:28:47 Speaker_00
All of those, I think, are really giving us important insights into our contemporary regime. And we're very familiar with democratic backsliding. Everybody is talking about that.

01:28:58 Speaker_00
We have a lot of description about how it occurs and studies about, for example, how democracies die or how democracies are backsliding.

01:29:07 Speaker_00
But our theories, I think, have to think anew and have to think that new authoritarian regimes are different to old authoritarian regimes. And we need to get to grips and discard some of our liberal assumptions.

01:29:20 Speaker_00
and get some new evidence and new data to basically say, is there genuine popular appeals of authoritarianism?

01:29:28 Speaker_00
We've measured support for democracy around the world in many, many surveys throughout the third wave era, that's to say from the early mid-70s onwards.

01:29:37 Speaker_00
But what's the popular support, not for a democracy with a big D, but for an erosion of democratic norms? practices, and then real support for the values which authoritarian strongman leaders promise. Do Americans want stability? Do they want security?

01:29:57 Speaker_00
Do they want a restoration of the America of the past? and a sense of order versus crime, and a sense that America can be, quote, great again. If they do, is that also the secret to the support of many other strongman leaders around the world?

01:30:13 Speaker_00
And maybe we can look comparatively, and we can really try to get to grips with why backsliding is occurring, and whether this is the heart of the challenges facing liberal democracy.

01:30:26 Speaker_01
Pippa Norris, thank you very much.

01:30:27 Speaker_00
Thank you, Ezra. A pleasure to be with you.

01:30:49 Speaker_01
The Ezra Klein Show is produced by Amifah Agawu, Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld, and Roger Carmo. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, Mary Marchlocker, and Kate Sinclair. Original music by Isaac Jones. Mixing by Jeff Geld. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta.

01:31:02 Speaker_01
Special thanks to Kristen Lynn and Kristina Samuelski.