#454 – Saagar Enjeti: Trump, MAGA, DOGE, Obama, FDR, JFK, History & Politics AI transcript and summary - episode of podcast Lex Fridman Podcast

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Episode: #454 – Saagar Enjeti: Trump, MAGA, DOGE, Obama, FDR, JFK, History & Politics

Author: Lex Fridman
Duration: 03:39:55

Episode Shownotes

Saagar Enjeti is a political journalist & commentator, co-host of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar and The Realignment Podcast. He is exceptionally well-read, and the books he recommends are always fascinating and eye-opening. You can check out all the books he mentions in this episode here: https://lexfridman.com/saagar-books Thank you

for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep454-sc See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/saagar-enjeti-2-transcript CONTACT LEX: Feedback - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey AMA - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama Hiring - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring Other - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact EPISODE LINKS: Saagar's Book Recommendations: https://lexfridman.com/saagar-books Saagar's Substack (where he recommends more books): https://saagarenjeti.substack.com/ Saagar's X: https://x.com/esaagar Saagar's Instagram: https://instagram.com/esaagar Breaking Points: https://youtube.com/@breakingpoints The Realignment Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@therealignment Saagar's Linktree: https://linktr.ee/esaagar SPONSORS: To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: Eight Sleep: Temp-controlled smart mattress cover. Go to https://eightsleep.com/lex AG1: All-in-one daily nutrition drinks. Go to https://drinkag1.com/lex LMNT: Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix. Go to https://drinkLMNT.com/lex BetterHelp: Online therapy and counseling. Go to https://betterhelp.com/lex Shopify: Sell stuff online. Go to https://shopify.com/lex NetSuite: Business management software. Go to http://netsuite.com/lex OUTLINE: (00:00) - Introduction (09:47) - Why Trump won (14:48) - Book recommendations (18:24) - History of wokeism (25:54) - History of Scots-Irish (32:32) - Biden (36:34) - FDR (38:36) - George W Bush (40:59) - LBJ (46:15) - Cuban Missile Crisis (53:48) - Immigration (1:25:46) - DOGE (1:52:27) - MAGA ideology (1:55:39) - Bernie Sanders (2:04:00) - Obama vs Trump (2:21:00) - Nancy Pelosi (2:24:14) - Kamala Harris (2:40:00) - 2020 Election (3:03:49) - Sam Harris (3:14:55) - UFOs (3:20:47) - Future of the Republican Party (3:27:24) - Future of the Democratic Party (3:35:21) - Hope

Full Transcript

00:00:00 Speaker_00
The following is a conversation with Sagar Anjeti, his second time on the podcast. Sagar is a political commentator, journalist, co-host of Breaking Points with Crystal Ball, and of the Realignment podcast with Marshall Kozlov.

00:00:17 Speaker_00
Sagar is one of the most well-read people I've ever met. His love of history and the wisdom gained from reading thousands of history books radiates through every analysis he makes of the world.

00:00:29 Speaker_00
In this podcast, we trace out the history of the various ideological movements that led up to the current political moment. In doing so, we mention a large number of amazing books.

00:00:41 Speaker_00
We'll put a link to them in the description for those interested to learn more about each topic. And now, a quick few second mention of each sponsor. Check them out in the description. It's the best way to support this podcast.

00:00:54 Speaker_00
We got Asleep for naps, AG1 for health, Element for hydration, BetterHelp for the mind, Shopify for the wallet, and NetSuite for your business. Choose wisely, my friends.

00:01:05 Speaker_00
Also, if you want to get in touch with me for a multitude of reasons, go to lexfriedman.com contact. And now, on to the full ad reads. I try to make them interesting, but if you skip them, please still check out our sponsors.

00:01:17 Speaker_00
I enjoy their stuff, maybe you will too. This episode is brought to you by 8sleep, and it's Pod 4 Ultra. I'm going to try a new thing where I hold on to a theme as I talk about these ads. I use Asleep and the Pod4Ultra to cool the bed.

00:01:38 Speaker_00
And since Sagar knows pretty much more than anybody I've ever met about the various US presidents and presidential politics and the history of politics in the US, Let me mention a little factoid.

00:01:49 Speaker_00
Did you know that the White House didn't get air conditioning until 1933 under Hoover, who funded it just before leaving office for FDR?

00:02:00 Speaker_00
So all that praise that Sager gives to FDR, just remember, maybe it wouldn't be possible without the cool, fresh air that Hoover gave to the great FDR.

00:02:14 Speaker_00
And that in fact, and I'm not sure why I'm using this voice in talking, but that in fact is essential for sleep, controlling the temperature of the bed, controlling the temperature of the sleeping environment. There you go. The more you know.

00:02:26 Speaker_00
Go to asleep.com slash Lex and use code Lex to get up to $600 off your Pod 4 Ultra purchase when bundled. That's asleep.com slash Lex. This episode is brought to you by AG1.

00:02:42 Speaker_00
basically a nice multivitamin that's also delicious that I drink every day that makes me feel like I have my life together, which I barely do.

00:02:52 Speaker_00
Now, speaking of drinks that you believe make you feel better, you know, placebo effect, that kind of thing. Here's a little presidential-themed factoid. John Adams drank hard cider every morning, believing it promoted good health.

00:03:11 Speaker_00
I would love to get a health advice podcast with Winston Churchill. Another president, William Howard Taft, had the White House kitchen prepare special protein shakes made from eggs, milk, and beef extract.

00:03:28 Speaker_00
I would love the dietary details of some of the presidents. I'm sure a bunch of them just smoked and drank and had their own little habits. that serve as a kind of escape from the madness of the world.

00:03:42 Speaker_00
Anyway, get AG1 and they'll give you one month supply of fish oil when you sign up at drinkag1.com. This episode is also brought to you by Element, my daily zero sugar and delicious electrolyte mix.

00:03:59 Speaker_00
And here I have to return again to the presidents who consumed various kinds of liquids. Did you know that Thomas Jefferson spent $11,000 on wine during his presidency? And we're not talking about quality here. We are, in fact, talking about quantity.

00:04:19 Speaker_00
That's equivalent to about $300,000 in today's money. Whatever works. It's like that meme that there's a perfect optimal amount of alcohol that makes you productive in programming. I have never found that optimal.

00:04:34 Speaker_00
Actually, if I have a drink, my productivity and my clarity of thinking and my creativity all go down.

00:04:42 Speaker_00
Now, I start enjoying the social interactions more and more because I am fundamentally an introvert that have anxiety about social interaction, so that helps. But in terms of productivity or creative juices or whatever, nope.

00:04:58 Speaker_00
Anyway, you can get a sample pack for free with any purchase. Try it at www.drinkelement.com. This episode is also brought to you by BetterHelp, spelled H-E-L-P, help.

00:05:09 Speaker_00
They figure out what you need and match you with a licensed therapist in under 48 hours. And there's actually quite a lot of presidents that really struggled with anxiety, with depression, with all kinds of complicated mental states.

00:05:26 Speaker_00
Coolidge, for example, fell into a deep depression after his son died from blood poisoning. And that changed him forever, actually. It's difficult to come back from that.

00:05:37 Speaker_00
John Quincy Adams, somewhat famously, kept extremely detailed diary for 68 years, often writing sort of a detailed analysis and almost like log of his mental states. That's an interesting thing to do, actually. I don't do that enough.

00:05:57 Speaker_00
I speak it, I don't write it down. Perhaps there's some magic in writing it down. But there is, with BetterHelp, also magic in speaking it with a professional. Check them out at BetterHelp.com slash Lex and save on your first month.

00:06:13 Speaker_00
That's BetterHelp.com slash Lex. This episode is also brought to you by Shopify, a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere with a great looking online store. So Abraham Lincoln actually owned a general store.

00:06:29 Speaker_00
And he has famously written that he wished he had Shopify. It would be much more convenient. Anyway, he had a general store that failed.

00:06:36 Speaker_00
So, you know, sometimes you need the right job for the right man, that match to be made and everything else is not gonna work out. I sold shoes, women's shoes, at Sears, kind of like Al Bundy for Married With Children, if you know the show.

00:06:56 Speaker_00
And, you know, I did okay. But I think it wasn't quite the right fit for me. You know, I was quite technically savvy and knew about computers, and I said I should probably be selling electronics and computers. And they said, yes, yes, yes.

00:07:14 Speaker_00
One day you will, but now we need helping shoes. So let's start you there. And if I stayed there for many more years, perhaps I would have upgraded to electronics. But then I also saw the beauty in selling women's shoes.

00:07:29 Speaker_00
There was a real joy in finding the right match for the right person. And that joy can be scaled significantly with Shopify. Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at shopify.com slash lex, that's all lowercase.

00:07:42 Speaker_00
Go to shopify.com slash lex to take your business to the next level today. This episode is brought to you by NetSuite, an all-in-one cloud business management system.

00:07:52 Speaker_00
Ulysses S. Grant, the famed general, kept extremely detailed expense accounts, recording every single penny he spent. Now, rigor, attention to detail, obsession with detail, financial detail, is important,

00:08:11 Speaker_00
But if you have the right tool for the job, that's made easier. I would love to kind of throw some of these people, some of these leaders, some of these brilliant minds from history into the modern world that is digitized.

00:08:26 Speaker_00
I think a lot of them would actually be destroyed by it. because the machine of distraction will pull them away from the focus you can more easily attain in a non-technological world.

00:08:40 Speaker_00
And some of them, I think, will become even more super productive, so it'll be really interesting.

00:08:45 Speaker_00
And there's been a lot of presidents that kind of pushed the White House and government in general into the direction of great record keeping, from George Washington, to Carter, to FDR, as Sager talks a lot about.

00:09:00 Speaker_00
Anyway, all that is in the realm of politics, but the realm of business in many ways is the same, especially when the government is working well. So, NetSuite is for business. In fact, over 37,000 companies have upgraded to NetSuite.

00:09:13 Speaker_00
Take advantage of their flexible financing plan at netsuite.com slash lex. That's netsuite.com slash lex. This is Alex Friedman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here's Sagar Anjali.

00:09:47 Speaker_00
So let's start with the obvious big question. Why do you think Trump won? Let's break it down. Before the election, you said that if Trump wins, it's going to be because of immigration.

00:09:59 Speaker_00
So aside from immigration, what are the maybe less than obvious reasons that Trump won?

00:10:05 Speaker_02
Yes, we absolutely need to return to immigration. But without that, Multifaceted explanation, let's start with the easiest one. There has been a wave of anti-incumbent energy around the world.

00:10:16 Speaker_02
Financial Times chart recently went viral showing the first time I think since World War II, possibly since 1905, I need to look at the data set, that all anti-incumbent parties all across the world suffered major

00:10:27 Speaker_02
So that's a very, very high level analysis. And we can return to that if we talk about Donald Trump's victory in 2016, because there were similar global precursors.

00:10:36 Speaker_02
That individual level in the United States, there's a very simple explanation as well, which is that Joe Biden was very old. He was very unpopular. Inflation was high.

00:10:44 Speaker_02
Inflation is one of the highest determiners of people switching their votes and putting their primacy on that ahead of any other issue at the ballot box. So that's that.

00:10:53 Speaker_02
I think it's actually much deeper at a psychological level for who America is and what it is.

00:10:59 Speaker_02
Fundamentally, I think what we're going to spend a lot of time talking about today is the evolution of the modern left and its collapse in the Kamala Harris candidacy and eventually the loss

00:11:10 Speaker_02
to Donald Trump in the popular vote where really is like an apotheosis of several social forces. So we're going to talk about the great awakening or so-called awokening, which is very important to understanding all of this.

00:11:22 Speaker_02
There's also really Donald Trump himself, who is really one of the most unique individual American politicians that we've seen in decades.

00:11:31 Speaker_02
At this point, Donald Trump's victory makes him the most important and transformative figure in American politics. since FDR.

00:11:37 Speaker_02
And a thought process for the audience is, in 2028, there will be an 18-year-old who's eligible to vote who cannot remember a time when Donald J. Trump was not the central American figure.

00:11:49 Speaker_02
And there's stories in World War II where troops were on the front lines, some of them were 18, 19 years old, FDR died, and they literally said, well, who's the president? And they said, Harry Truman, you dumbass. And they go, who?

00:12:00 Speaker_02
They couldn't conceive of a universe. where FDR was not the president of the United States. Donald Trump, even during the Biden administration, he was the figure. Joe Biden defined his entire candidacy and his legacy around defeating this man.

00:12:14 Speaker_02
Obviously, he's failed. We should talk a lot about Joe Biden as well for his own failed theories of the presidency. I think at macro level, it's easy to understand. At a basic level, inflation, it's easy to understand.

00:12:26 Speaker_02
But what I really hope that a lot of people can take away is how fundamentally unique Donald Trump is as a political figure and what he was able to do to realign American politics really forever.

00:12:36 Speaker_02
I mean, in the white working class realignment originally in 2016,

00:12:40 Speaker_02
the activation really of a multiracial kind of working class coalition and of really splitting American lines along a single individual question of, did you attend a four year college degree institution or not? And this is a crazy thing to say.

00:12:56 Speaker_02
Donald Trump is one of the most racially depolarizing electoral figures in American history. We lived in 2016 at a time when racial groups, you know, really voted in blocks, Latinos, blacks, whites.

00:13:10 Speaker_02
There was some, of course, division between the white working class and the white college educated, white collar workers. But by and large, you could pretty fairly say that Asians were

00:13:21 Speaker_02
Indians, everyone, 80, 90% were going to vote for the Democratic Party, Latinos as well. I'm born here in Texas, in the state of Texas. George W. Bush shocked people when he won some 40% of the Latino vote.

00:13:34 Speaker_02
Donald Trump just beat Kamala Harris with Latino men, and he ran up the table for young men. So really, fundamentally, we have witnessed a full realignment in American politics, and that's a really fundamental problem for the modern left.

00:13:48 Speaker_02
It's erased a lot of the conversation around gerrymandering, around the electoral college, the so-called electoral college bias towards Republicans, really being able to win the popular vote,

00:14:00 Speaker_02
for the first time since 2004 is shocking and landmark achievement by a Republican. In 2008, I have a book on my shelf and I always look at it to remind myself of how much things can change.

00:14:11 Speaker_02
James Carville, and it says 40 more years, how Democrats will never lose an election again. 2008, they wrote that book after the Obama coalition and the landslide.

00:14:21 Speaker_02
And something I love so much about this country, people change their minds all the time. I was born in 1992. I watched red states go blue. I've seen blue states go red. I've seen swing states go red or blue. I've seen...

00:14:34 Speaker_02
Millions of people pick up and move the greatest internal migration in the United States since World War Two. And it's really inspiring because it's a really dynamic, interesting place.

00:14:43 Speaker_02
And I love covering and I love thinking about it, talking about it, talking to people. It's awesome.

00:14:48 Speaker_00
One of the reasons I'm a big fan of yours is you're a student of history, and so you've recommended a bunch of books to me, and they and others thread the different movements throughout American history.

00:14:59 Speaker_00
Some movements take off and do hold power for a long time, some don't, and some are started by a small number of people and are controlled by a small number of people, some are mass movements, and it's just fascinating to

00:15:11 Speaker_00
watch how those movements evolve and then fit themselves maybe into the constraints of a two-party system. And I'd love to sort of talk about the various perspectives of that.

00:15:22 Speaker_00
So would it be fair to say that this election was turned into a kind of class struggle?

00:15:32 Speaker_02
Well, I won't go that far, because to say it's a class struggle really implies that things fundamentally align on economic lines, and I don't think that's necessarily accurate. Although, if that's your lens, you could get there.

00:15:44 Speaker_02
So there's a very big statistic going around right now where Kamala Harris increased her vote share and won households over $100,000 or more, and Donald Trump won households under $100,000. So you could view that in an economic lens.

00:15:59 Speaker_02
The problem, again, that I have is that that is much more a proxy for four-year college degree and for education. And so one of my favorite books is called Coming Apart by Charles Murray.

00:16:09 Speaker_02
And that book really, really underscores how the cultural milieu that people swim in when they attend a four-year college degree and the trajectory of their life, not only on where they move to, who they marry,

00:16:22 Speaker_02
what type of grocery store they go to, their cultural, what television shows that they watch. One of my favorite questions from Charles Murray is called a bubble quiz. I encourage people to go take it, by the way, which asks you a question.

00:16:34 Speaker_02
It's like, what does the word Branson mean to you? And it has a couple of answers. One of them is Branson is Richard Branson, Sir Richard Branson. Number two is Branson, Missouri, which is like a country music tourist style destination.

00:16:46 Speaker_02
Three is it means nothing. So you are less in a bubble if you say country music and you're very much in the bubble if you say Richard Branson. And I remember taking that test for the first time.

00:16:56 Speaker_02
I go, obviously, Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Atlantic, like what? And then I was like, wait, I'm like, I'm in the bubble. And there are other things in there, like can you name various different military ranks?

00:17:05 Speaker_02
I can because I'm a history nerd, but the vast majority of college educated people don't know anybody who served in the United States military. They don't have family members who do.

00:17:12 Speaker_02
The most popular shows in America are like the Big Bang Theory and NCIS, whereas people in our probably cultural milieu, our favorite shows are White Lotus, The Last of Us. This is prestige television, right?

00:17:24 Speaker_02
With a very small audience, but high income, high education. So The point is, is that culture really defines who we are as Americans, where we live.

00:17:32 Speaker_02
And rural-urban is one way to describe it, but honestly, with the work-from-home revolution, and more rich people and highly educated people moving to more rural, suburban, or areas they traditionally weren't able to commute in, that's changing.

00:17:45 Speaker_02
And so really, the internet is everything. The stuff that you consume on the internet, the stuff that you spend your time doing, the type of books you read, whether you read a book at all, frankly.

00:17:54 Speaker_02
whether you travel to Europe, whether you have a passport, all the things that you value in your life, that is the real cultural divide in America.

00:18:02 Speaker_02
And I actually think that's what this revolution of Donald Trump was activating and bringing people to the polls, bringing a lot of those traditional working class voters of all races away from the Democratic Party along the lines of elitism, of sneering, and of a general cultural feeling that these people don't understand me and my struggles in this life.

00:18:24 Speaker_00
And so the trivial formulation is that it's the wokeism, the anti-wokeism movement. So it's not necessarily that Trump winning was a statement against wokeism, it was the broader anti-elitism.

00:18:38 Speaker_02
It's difficult to say because I wouldn't dismiss anti-wokeism or wokeism. as an explanation. But we need to understand like the electoral impacts of woke.

00:18:47 Speaker_02
So there's varying degrees of like how you're going to encounter quote-unquote wokeism and this is a very difficult thing to define so let me just try and break it down which is there are the types of things that you're going to interact with on a cultural basis and what I mean by that is going to watch a TV show and just for some reason there's like two trans characters

00:19:08 Speaker_02
And it's never like particularly explained why they just are there or watching a commercial and it's the same thing Watching I don't know.

00:19:15 Speaker_02
I remember it was watching I think it was Doctor Strange in the multiverse of madness and the main it was a terrible movie by the way Don't recommend it but one of the characters I think is her name was like America and she wore a gay pride flag and

00:19:26 Speaker_02
Right, look, many left-wingers would make fun of me for saying these things, but that is obviously a social agenda to the point as in they believe it is like deeply acceptable that is used by Hollywood and cultural elites who really value those progress, you know, in sexual orientation and others.

00:19:43 Speaker_02
I really believe it's important to quote-unquote showcase it for representation. So that's like one way that we may encounter quote-unquote wokeism.

00:19:49 Speaker_02
But the more important ways, frankly, are the ways that affirmative action, which really has its roots in American society all the way going back to the 1960s,

00:19:59 Speaker_02
and how those have manifested in our economy and in our understanding of quote-unquote discrimination. So two books I can recommend. One is called The Origins of Woke. That's by Richard Hanania.

00:20:09 Speaker_02
There's another one, The Age of Entitlement, by Christopher Caldwell. And they make a very strong case that Caldwell in particular, that he calls it like a new founding of America.

00:20:19 Speaker_02
was the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, because it created an entire new legal regime and understanding of race in the American character and how the government was going to enforce that.

00:20:30 Speaker_02
And that really ties in with another one of the books that I recommended to you about the origins of Trump by Jim Webb. And Senator Jim Webb, incredible, incredible man. He's so underappreciated.

00:20:42 Speaker_02
Intellectual, he was anti-war, and people may remember him from 2016 primary, and they asked him a question, I don't exactly remember, about one of his enemies.

00:20:54 Speaker_02
And he's like, well, one of them was a guy shot in Vietnam, and he was running against Hillary. And that guy, he wrote the book Born Fighting, I think it's History of the Scots-Irish People, something like that.

00:21:05 Speaker_02
And that book really opened my eyes to the way that affirmative action and racial preferences that were playing out through the HR managerial elite really turned a lot of people within the white working class away from the Democratic Party and felt fundamentally discriminated against by the professional managerial class.

00:21:27 Speaker_02
And so there's a lot of roots to this, the managerial revolution by James Burnham,

00:21:31 Speaker_02
And in terms of the origin of kind of how we got here, but the crystallization of like DEI and or affirmative action, I prefer to use the term affirmative action, in the highest echelons of business.

00:21:43 Speaker_02
And there became this idea that representation itself was the only thing that mattered. And I think that right around 2014, that really went on steroids. And that's why it's not an accident that Donald J. Trump elected in 2016.

00:21:55 Speaker_00
At this point, do you think this election is the kind of statement that wokeism as a movement is dead?

00:22:00 Speaker_02
I don't know. I mean, it's very difficult to say because wokeism itself is not a movement with a party leader. It's a amorphous belief that has worked its way through institutions now for almost 40 or 50 years. I mean, it's effectively a religion.

00:22:16 Speaker_02
And part of the reason why it's difficult to define is it means different things to different people. So, for example, there are varying degrees of how we would define, quote unquote, woke.

00:22:25 Speaker_02
Do I think that the Democrats will be speaking in so-called academic language? Yes, I do think they will. I think that the next Democratic nominee will not do that.

00:22:34 Speaker_02
However, Kamala Harris actually did move as much as she could away from quote unquote woke, but she basically was punished for a lot of the sins of both herself from 2019,

00:22:45 Speaker_02
but a general cultural feeling that her and the people around her do not understand me.

00:22:49 Speaker_02
And not only do not understand me, but I have racial preferences or a regime or an understanding that would lead to a quote unquote equity mindset, you know, equal outcomes for everybody as opposed to equality of opportunity, which is more of a colorblind philosophy.

00:23:03 Speaker_02
So I can't say, I think it's way too early.

00:23:06 Speaker_02
And, you know, again, like you can not use the word Latinx, but do you still believe in an effective affirmative action regime, you know, in terms of how you would run your Department of Justice, in terms of how you view the world, in terms of what you think the real dividing lines in America are?

00:23:25 Speaker_02
Because I would say that's still actually kind of a woke mindset, and that's part of the reason why the

00:23:29 Speaker_02
The term itself doesn't really mean a whole lot and we have to get actually really specific about what it looks like in operations and operation it means affirmative action it means the nasdaq passing some law that if you want to go public or something that you have to have a woman in a person of color on your board this is a blatant in extraordinary.

00:23:48 Speaker_02
look, racialism, that they've enshrined in their bylaws. So you can get rid of ESG, that's great, but you can get rid of DEI, I think that's great, but it's really about a mindset and a view of the world, and I don't think that's going anywhere.

00:24:01 Speaker_00
And you think the reason it doesn't work well in practice is because there's a big degree to which it's anti-meritocracy.

00:24:09 Speaker_02
It's anti-American, really. I mean, DEI and WOKE and Affirmative action make perfect sense in a lot of different countries.

00:24:15 Speaker_02
Okay, and there are a lot of countries out there that are Multi-ethnic and they're heterogeneous and they were run by basically quasi dictators and the way it works is that you pay off the Christians and to pay off the Muslims and and

00:24:30 Speaker_02
They get this guy, and they get that guy, and everybody kind of shakes it. It's very explicit. They're like, we have 10 spots, and they go to the Christians. We have 10 spots, and it goes to the Hindus.

00:24:38 Speaker_02
India is a country I know pretty well, and this does kind of work like that on state politics level in some respect.

00:24:43 Speaker_02
But in America, fundamentally, we really believe that no matter where you are from, that you come here, and basically within a generation, especially if you migrate here legally, and you integrate, that you leave a lot of that stuff behind.

00:24:56 Speaker_02
And the story, the American dream that is ingrained in so many of us is one that really does not mesh well with any sort of racial preference regime or anything that's not meritocratic.

00:25:10 Speaker_02
And I mean, I will give the left wingers some credit in the idea that meritocracy itself could have preference for people who have privileged backgrounds. I think that's true. And so the way I would like to see it is to increase

00:25:24 Speaker_02
everybody's equality of opportunity to make sure that they all have a chance at, quote unquote, willing out the American dream.

00:25:31 Speaker_02
But that doesn't erase meritocracy, hard work, and many of the other things that we associate with the American character, with the American frontier.

00:25:38 Speaker_02
So these are two ideologies which are really at odds, like in a lot of ways, like wokeism, racialism, and all this is a third world ideology. It's one that's very prevalent in Europe and all across Asia, but it doesn't mix well here and it shouldn't.

00:25:51 Speaker_02
And I'm really glad that America feels the same way.

00:25:54 Speaker_00
Yeah, I gotta go back to Jim Webb and that book. What a badass, fascinating book. Oh my god. Born Fighting. Amazing. How the Scots-Irish shaped America.

00:26:03 Speaker_00
So, I did not realize to the degree, first of all how badass the Scots-Irish are, and to the degree many of the things that kind of identify as American and part of the American spirit were defined by this relatively small group of people.

00:26:19 Speaker_00
As he describes, the model could be summarized as fight, sing, drink, and pray. So there's the principles of fierce individualism, the principles of a deep distrust of government, the elites, the authorities, bottom-up governance,

00:26:32 Speaker_00
over 2,000 years of a military tradition. They made up 40% of the Revolutionary War Army and produced numerous military leaders, including Stonewall Jackson, Ulysses S. Grant, George S. Patton, and a bunch of presidents.

00:26:47 Speaker_00
Some of the more gangster presidents, Andrew Jackson, Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. Just the whole cultural legacy of country music.

00:26:59 Speaker_02
We owe them so much and they really don't get their due.

00:27:02 Speaker_02
Unfortunately, a lot of for the reasons that I just described around racialism is because post, you know, mass immigration from Europe, the term white kind of became blanket applied to new Irish to Italians to Slovenians and.

00:27:16 Speaker_02
you know, as you and I both know, if you travel those countries, people are pretty different. And it's not the different here in the United States.

00:27:23 Speaker_02
Scott Cyrus was some of the original settlers here in America, and particularly in Appalachia, and their contribution to the fighting spirit and their own culture and like who we are as individualists and some of the first people to ever settle the frontier.

00:27:36 Speaker_02
And that frontier mindset really does come from them. We owe them just as much we do the Puritans, but they don't ever really get their due.

00:27:43 Speaker_02
And the reason I recommend that book is if you read that book and you understand then how exactly could this group of white working class voters forego from 2012 voting for a man named Barack Hussein Obama

00:27:54 Speaker_02
to Donald J. Trump, you really seem to—it makes perfect sense if you combine it with a lot of the stuff I'm talking about here, about affirmative action, about distrust of the elites, about feeling as if institutions are not seeing through to you, and specifically also not valuing your contribution to American history, and in some cases actively looking down.

00:28:15 Speaker_02
I'm glad you pointed out not only their role in the Revolutionary War, but in the Civil War as well.

00:28:20 Speaker_02
And, you know, just how much of a contribution culturally really that we owe them for setting the groundwork that so many of us who came later could build upon and adopt some of their own ideas and their culture as our own.

00:28:31 Speaker_02
It's one of the things that makes America great. Mark Twain. Yeah.

00:28:36 Speaker_00
I mean, so much of the culture, so much of the, yeah, the American spirit, the whole idea, the whole shape and form and type of populism that represents our democracy. So would you trace that fierce individualism that we think of back to them?

00:28:52 Speaker_02
Definitely, it's a huge part of them, about who they were, about the screw you attitude. I mean, that book actually kind of had a renaissance back in 2016 when Hillbilly Elegy came out. I'm sure you remember this.

00:29:04 Speaker_02
Which it's kind of weird to think that it's now the vice president-elect of the United States. It's kind of wild, honestly, to think about. But J.D.

00:29:11 Speaker_02
Vance's book, Hillbilly Elegy, I think was really important for a lot of American elites who were like, how do these people support Trump? Where does this shit come from?

00:29:21 Speaker_02
If you really think back to that time, it was shocking to the elite character that any person in the world could ever vote for Donald Trump. And not just vote, he won the election. How does that happen?

00:29:31 Speaker_02
And Hillbilly Elegy guided people in an understanding of what that's like on a lived day-to-day basis. And JD, to his credit, talks about Scott's Irish heritage, about Appalachia.

00:29:41 Speaker_02
and the legacy of what that culture looks like today and how a lot of these people voted for Donald Trump.

00:29:45 Speaker_02
But we got to give credit to Jim Webb, who wrote the history of these people and taught me and you about, you know, their their original fight against the the oppressors in Scotland and Ireland and their militant spirit and how they were able to bring that over here.

00:30:00 Speaker_02
And, you know, they got their due in Andrew Jackson and some of our other populist presidents who set us up on the road to Donald Trump to where we are today.

00:30:08 Speaker_00
Dude, it got me pumped, excited to be an American. Me too.

00:30:10 Speaker_02
I love that book.

00:30:11 Speaker_00
It's crazy that JD, the same guy, because that's, Hillbilly Elegy is what I kind of thought of him as.

00:30:19 Speaker_02
I mean, I'll tell you for me, it's actually pretty surreal. I met JD Vance in like 2017 in like a bar. I didn't ever think he would be the vice president elect of the United States. I mean, it's kind of wild.

00:30:31 Speaker_02
One of my friends went back and dug up the email that we originally sent him, just like, hey, do you want to meet up? And he's like, sure. I was watching on television. I mean, the first time that it really hit me, I was like,

00:30:41 Speaker_02
Whoa, it was like name in a history book is whenever he became the vice presidential nominee. I was watching on TV and the confetti was falling and he was waving with his wife and I was like, wow, like that's it.

00:30:51 Speaker_02
You're in the history books now forever, especially now. So as the literal vice president elect.

00:30:57 Speaker_02
of the US, but his own evolution is actually a fascinating story for us too, because I think a lot of the time I've spent right now is kind of, a lot of what I'm giving right now are like 2016 kind of takes about like why Trump won that time, but we should spend a lot of time on how Donald Trump won this election.

00:31:15 Speaker_02
and like how, what happened, some of the failures of the Biden administration, some of the payback for the great awokening. But also if you look at the evolution of J.D.

00:31:24 Speaker_02
Vance, this is a person who wrote Hillbilly Elegy, and not a lot of people pay attention to this, but if you read Hillbilly Elegy, J.D. was much more of a traditional conservative at that time.

00:31:34 Speaker_02
He was citing, you know, report, I think the famous passage is about like payday loans and why they're good or something like that. I don't know his position today, but I would assume that he's probably changed that.

00:31:44 Speaker_02
But the point is, is that his ideological evolution from watching somebody who really was more of a traditional Republican with a deep empathy for the white working class, then eventually become a champion and a disciple of Donald Trump.

00:31:59 Speaker_02
and to believe that he himself was the vehicle for accomplishing and bettering the United States was specifically for working class Americans, really, of all stripes.

00:32:08 Speaker_02
And that story is really one of the rise of the modern left as it exists as a political project, as an ideology.

00:32:17 Speaker_02
It's also one of the Republican Party, which coalesced now with Donald Trump as a legitimate figure and as the single bulwark against cultural leftism and elitism that eventually was normalized to the point that

00:32:29 Speaker_02
majority of Americans decided to vote for him in 2024.

00:32:32 Speaker_00
So let's talk about 2024. What happened with the left? What happened with Biden? What's your take on Biden?

00:32:40 Speaker_02
Biden is, I try to remove myself from it and I try not to give like hit big history takes while you're in the moment. But it's really hard not to say that he's one of the worst presidents in modern history.

00:32:52 Speaker_02
And I think the reason why I'm going to go with it is because I want to judge him by the things that he set out to do. So Joe Biden has been the same person for his entire political career. He is a basically C student who thinks he's an A student.

00:33:09 Speaker_02
The chip on his shoulder against the elites has played to his benefit in his original election to the United States Senate, through his entire career as a United States Senator, where he always wanted to be the star and the center of attention, and to his 1988 presidential campaign.

00:33:22 Speaker_02
And one of the most fascinating things about Biden and watching him age is watching him become even more of what he already was. And so a book recommendation, it's called What It Takes, and it was written in 1988.

00:33:34 Speaker_02
And there's actually a long chapter on Joe Biden and about the plagiarism scandal. And one of the things that comes across is his sheer arrogance and belief in himself as to why he should be the center of attention.

00:33:45 Speaker_02
Now the reason I'm laying all this out is the arrogance of Joe Biden, the individual and his character, is fundamentally the reason this presidency went awry.

00:33:52 Speaker_02
This is a person who was elected in 2020 really because of a feeling of chaos, of Donald Trump, of we need normalcy, decides to come into the office.

00:34:03 Speaker_02
portrays himself as a quote unquote transitional president, slowly, you know, begins to lose a lot of his faculties and then surrounds himself with sycophants, the same ones who have been around him for so long, that he had no single input into his life to tell him that he needed to stop and he needed to drop out of the race until it became truly undeniable to the vast majority of the American people.

00:34:26 Speaker_02
And that's why I'm trying to keep it as like him as an individual, as a president, because we could separate him from some of his

00:34:31 Speaker_02
Accomplishments and the things that happen on some I support some I don't but generally a lot of people are not gonna look back and think about Joe Biden and the chips act a lot of people are not gonna look back and think about Joe Biden and the build back better bill or whatever his Lena con antitrust policy they're going to look back on him and they're going to remember high inflation they're going to remember somebody who fundamentally never was up to the job in the sense that.

00:34:55 Speaker_02
Again, book recommendation, Freedom from Fear by David Kennedy is about the Roosevelt years. And one of the most important things people don't understand is the New Deal didn't really work in the way that a lot of people wanted it to, right?

00:35:08 Speaker_02
Like there was still high unemployment, there was still a lot of suffering, but you know what changed? They felt that they had a vigorous commander in chief who was doing everything in his power to attack the problems of the everyday American.

00:35:20 Speaker_02
So even though things didn't even materially change, the vigor, that's a term that was often associated with John F. Kennedy at VIGA, you know, in the Massachusetts accent.

00:35:29 Speaker_02
We had this young, vibrant president in 1960 and he was running around and he wanted to convince us that he was working every single day tirelessly. And when you have an 80-year-old man

00:35:39 Speaker_02
who is simply just eating ice cream and going to the beach while people's grocery prices and all those things go up by 25%. And we don't see the same vigor.

00:35:47 Speaker_02
We don't see the same action, the bias to action, which is so important in the modern presidency. That is fundamentally why I think the Democrats, part of the reason why the Democrats lost the election, and also why I think that he missed his moment.

00:36:00 Speaker_02
in such a dramatic way and he had the opportunity could have done it you know if you wanted to but maybe twenty years ago but the truth is that his own narcissism his own misplaced belief in himself and his own accidental rise to the presidency ended up in his downfall and it's kind of amazing because again if we if we look.

00:36:20 Speaker_02
back to his original campaign speech, 2019, why I'm running for president. It was Charlottesville. And he said, I want to defeat Donald Trump forever. And I want to make sure that he never gets back in the White House again.

00:36:30 Speaker_02
So by his own metric, he did fail. That was his, it was the only thing he wanted to do. And he failed, failed for him.

00:36:34 Speaker_00
You said a lot of interesting stuff. So one FDR, that's really interesting. It's not about the specific policy. It's about like fighting for the people and doing that with charisma and just uniting the entire country for Is this the same with Bernie?

00:36:52 Speaker_00
Like maybe there's a lot of people that disagree with Bernie that still support him, because we just want- Feels authentic. Yeah. That's it. We just want somebody to fight authentically for us. Yes, yes.

00:37:01 Speaker_02
FDR, people really need, FDR was like a king. He was like Jesus Christ, okay, in the US. And some of it was because of what he did, but it was just the fight.

00:37:10 Speaker_02
So people need to go back and read the history of the first hundred days under FDR, the sheer amount of legislation that went through, his ability to bring Congress to heel and the Senate. He gets all this stuff through.

00:37:19 Speaker_02
But as you and I know, legislation takes a long time to put into place, right? We've had people starving on the streets all throughout 1933 under Hoover.

00:37:28 Speaker_02
The difference was Hoover was seen as this do-nothing joke who would dine nine course meals in the White House and he's a filthy rich banker. FDR comes in there and every single day has him fireside chat. He's passing legislation.

00:37:42 Speaker_02
But more importantly, so he tries various different programs. Then they get ruled unconstitutional. He tries even more. So what does America take away from that every single time. If he gets knocked down, he comes back fighting.

00:37:53 Speaker_02
And that was a really part of his character that he developed after he got polio. And it gave him the strength to persevere through personally what he could transfer in his calm demeanor and his feeling of fight that America

00:38:09 Speaker_02
really got that spirit from him and was able to climb itself out of the Great Depression. He's such an inspirational figure, he really is. And people think of him for World War II, and of course, we can spend forever on that.

00:38:21 Speaker_02
But in my opinion, the early years are not studied enough. 33 to 37 is one of the most remarkable periods in American history. We were not ruled by a president, we were ruled by a king, by a monarch, and people liked it.

00:38:33 Speaker_02
He was a dictator, and he was a good one.

00:38:36 Speaker_00
Yeah, so to sort of push back against the implied thing that you said, so when saying Biden is the worst president... No, second worst.

00:38:46 Speaker_02
In modern history, that's what I said.

00:38:47 Speaker_00
In modern history, who's the worst?

00:38:49 Speaker_02
W, no question.

00:38:50 Speaker_00
I see, because of the horrible wars, probably.

00:38:53 Speaker_02
It's just so bad. One of my favorite authors is a guy, Gene Edward Smith. He's written a bunch of presidential biographies.

00:38:59 Speaker_02
And in the opening of his book, W Biography, he's like, there's just no question, this is the single worst foreign policy mistake in all of American history. And W is one of our worst presidents ever. He had terrible judgment.

00:39:11 Speaker_02
and got us into a war of his own choosing. It was a disaster, and it set us up for failure. By the way, we talked a lot about Donald Trump.

00:39:18 Speaker_02
Nobody is more responsible for the rise of Donald Trump than George W. Bush, but I could go off on Bush for a long time. Oh, we will.

00:39:25 Speaker_00
We will return there. So as part of the pushback, I'd like to say, because I agree with your criticism of arrogance and narcissism against Joe Biden, the same could be said about Donald Trump.

00:39:36 Speaker_02
You're absolutely right.

00:39:37 Speaker_00
Of arrogance. And I think you've also articulated that a lot of presidents throughout American history have suffered from a bad case of arrogance and narcissism.

00:39:46 Speaker_02
Absolutely, but sometimes for a benefit. You have to be a pretty crazy person to want to be president.

00:39:52 Speaker_02
I have put out a tweet that got some controversy, and I think it was Joe Rogan, who I love, but he was like, I want to find out who Kamala Harris is as a human being.

00:40:01 Speaker_02
And I was like, I'm actually not interested in who politicians are as human beings at all. I was like, I've read too much about them to know. I know who you are.

00:40:09 Speaker_02
If you spend your life, and because I live in Washington and I spend a lot of time around would-be politicians, I know what it takes to actually become the president. It's crazy. You have to give up everything, everything.

00:40:20 Speaker_02
Every night, you're not spending it with your wife, you're spending it at dinner with potential donors, with friends, with people who can connect you. Every, even after you get elected, that's even more so.

00:40:29 Speaker_02
Now you gotta raise money, and now you're on to the next thing. Now you wanna get your political thing through, you're gonna spend all your time on your phone, you and your staff are gonna be more like this.

00:40:37 Speaker_02
Your entire life revolves around your career. It's, honestly, you need an insane level of narcissism to do it. because you have to believe that you are better than everybody else, which is already pretty crazy.

00:40:48 Speaker_02
And not only that, your own personal characteristics and foibles lead you to the pursuit of this office and to the pursuit of the idolatry of the self and everything around you. There's a famous story

00:41:01 Speaker_02
of lady bird johnson after johnson becomes a president is talking to white house butler and she was like everything is house revolves around my husband whatever's left goes to the girls her two children and i'll take the scraps.

00:41:13 Speaker_02
So is everything revolved around johnson's political career and his daughters when they're honest cuz i like to paper over some of the things. that happened under him, but they didn't spend any time with him.

00:41:24 Speaker_02
Saturday morning was for breakfast with Richard Russell, I forget. These are all in the Robert A. Caro books. Sunday was for Rayburn. There was no time for his kids. That's what it was. And by the way, he's one of the greatest politicians to ever live.

00:41:39 Speaker_02
But he also died from a massive heart attack, and he was a deeply sad and depressed individual.

00:41:43 Speaker_00
Yeah, I saw that tweet, to go back to that. And also, I listened to your incredible debate about it with Marshall on the Realignment podcast, and I have to side with Marshall. I think you're just wrong on this.

00:41:56 Speaker_00
Because I think revealing the character of a person is really important to understand how they will act in a room full of generals.

00:42:03 Speaker_02
full of... Yeah, this gets to the judgment question.

00:42:05 Speaker_00
The judgment.

00:42:06 Speaker_02
I think of Johnson and of Nixon, of Teddy Roosevelt, even of FDR. I can give you a laundry list of personal problems that all those people had. I think they had a really, really good judgment.

00:42:18 Speaker_02
And I'm not sure how intrinsic their own personal character was to their exploration and thinking about the world.

00:42:26 Speaker_02
So JFK is actually JFK might be our best example because he had the best judgment out of anybody in the room as a brand new president in the Cuban Missile Crisis. And he got us out and avoided nuclear war, which he deserves eternal credit for that.

00:42:40 Speaker_02
But how did he arrive to good judgment? Some of it certainly was his character, and we can go again, though, into his laundry list of that. But most of it was around being with his father, seeing some of the mistakes that he would make.

00:42:54 Speaker_02
And he also had a deeply inquisitive mind, and he experienced World War II at the personal level. after PT 109. So it is, look, I get it.

00:43:03 Speaker_02
I actually could steal man and I could, the response to what I'm saying is judgment is not divisible from personal character.

00:43:10 Speaker_02
But just because I know a lot of politicians and I've read enough with the really great ones, the people who I revere the most, there's really bad personal stuff basically every single time.

00:43:21 Speaker_00
But you're saying the judgment was good.

00:43:24 Speaker_02
Oh, his judgment was great.

00:43:25 Speaker_00
Through a missile crisis.

00:43:26 Speaker_02
Yes.

00:43:27 Speaker_00
Some of the best judgment and decision making in the history of America.

00:43:32 Speaker_02
Yes. And we should study a lot of it. And I encourage people out there. This is a brutal text. We were forced to read it in graduate school. The Essence of Decision by Graham Allison. I'm so thankful we did.

00:43:43 Speaker_02
It's one of the foundations of political science because it lays out theories of how government works. This is also a useful transition, by the way, if we want to talk about Trump and some of his cabinet and how that is shaping up.

00:43:54 Speaker_02
because people really need to understand Washington. Washington is a creature with traditions, with institutions that don't care about you. They don't even really care about the president.

00:44:05 Speaker_02
They have self-perpetuating mechanisms which have been done a certain way, and it usually takes a great shocking event like World War II to change really anything beyond the marginal.

00:44:16 Speaker_02
Every once in a while, you have a figure like Teddy Roosevelt who's actually able to take peacetime presidency and transform the country, but it needs an extraordinary individual to get something like that done.

00:44:25 Speaker_02
So the question around the essence of decision was the theory behind the Cuban Missile Crisis of how Kennedy arrived at his decision.

00:44:33 Speaker_02
And there are various different schools of thought, but one of the things I love about the book is it presents a case for all three, the organizational theory, the bureaucratic politics theory, and then kind of the great man theory as well.

00:44:44 Speaker_02
So there's a, you know, you and I could sit here and I could tell you a case about PT 109 and about how John F. Kennedy experienced World War II

00:44:52 Speaker_02
as this, I think he was like a first lieutenant or something like that, and how he literally swam miles with a wounded man's life jacket strap in his teeth with a broken back and he saved him and he ended up on the cover of Life magazine and he was a war hero.

00:45:05 Speaker_02
And he was a deeply smart individual who wrote a book in 1939 called Why England Slept, which to this day is considered

00:45:14 Speaker_02
a text which, at the moment, was able to describe in detail why Neville Chamberlain and the British political system arrived at the policy of appeasement. I actually have an original copy.

00:45:25 Speaker_02
It's one of my most prized possessions, from 1939, because this is a 23-year-old kid. Who the fuck are you, John F. Kennedy? Turns out he's a brilliant man.

00:45:35 Speaker_02
Another just favorite aside is that at the Potsdam Conference, where Harry Truman is there with Stalin and everybody.

00:45:40 Speaker_02
So in the room at the same time, Harry S. Truman, President of the United States, Dwight D. Eisenhower, the general, who will succeed him, 26-year-old John F. Kennedy as a journalist, some shithead journalist on the side.

00:45:53 Speaker_02
And all three of those presidents were in the same room with Joseph Stalin and others. And that's the story of America right there. It's kind of amazing. And I love people to say that because you never know about who will end up rising to power.

00:46:06 Speaker_02
But- Are you announcing that you're running for president? No, absolutely not. I don't have what it takes. I don't think so. I'm self-aware.

00:46:12 Speaker_00
Yeah. Well, maybe humility is necessary for greatness. Okay. So yeah, actually, can we just linger on that book?

00:46:18 Speaker_02
Yeah.

00:46:18 Speaker_00
So the book, Essence of Decision, Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis by Graham Allison. It presents three different models of how government works. The rational act model, so seeing government as one entity, trying to maximize the national interest.

00:46:36 Speaker_00
Also seeing government as, through the lens of the momentum of standard operating procedures, sort of this giant organization that's just doing things how it's always been done.

00:46:48 Speaker_00
and the government politics model of there's just these individual internal power struggles within government.

00:46:56 Speaker_00
And all of that is like a different way to view, and they're probably all true to a degree, of how decisions are made within this giant machinery of government.

00:47:07 Speaker_02
That's why it's so important is because you cannot read that book and say one is true and one is not. You can say one is more true than the other, but all of them are deeply true.

00:47:14 Speaker_02
And this is one where this is probably a good transition to Donald Trump because and I guess for the people out there don't think I've been up to obsequious. He'll be my criticism.

00:47:23 Speaker_02
Trump says something very fundamental and interesting on the Joe Rogan podcast. Probably the most important thing that he ever said, which is he said, I like to have people like John Bolton in my administration.

00:47:32 Speaker_02
Well, because they scare people and it makes me seem like the most rational individual in the room.

00:47:37 Speaker_02
So at a very intuitive level, a lot of people can understand that and then they can rationalize while there are picks that Donald Trump has brought into his White House, people like Mike Waltz and others that have espoused views that are directly at odds with a quote unquote, anti neocon, anti Liz Cheney agenda.

00:47:55 Speaker_02
Now, Trump's theory of this is that he likes to have quote unquote like psychopaths like John Bolton in the room with him while he's sitting across from Kim Jong-un because it gets scared.

00:48:06 Speaker_02
What I think Trump never understood when he was president, and I honestly question if he still does now, is those two theories that you laid out.

00:48:13 Speaker_02
which are not about the rational interest as the government is one model, but the bureaucratic theory and the organizational theory of politics.

00:48:20 Speaker_02
And because what Trump, I don't think, quite gets is that there are 99% of the decisions that get made in government never reach the president's desk.

00:48:28 Speaker_02
One of the most important Obama quotes ever is, by the time it gets to my desk, nobody else can solve it. All the problems here are hard. All the problems here don't have an answer. That's why I have to make the call. So,

00:48:38 Speaker_02
The theory that Trump has, that you can have people in there who are, let's say, warmongers, neocons, or whatever, who don't necessarily agree with you, is that when push comes to shove at the most important decisions, that I'll still be able to reign those people in as an influence.

00:48:51 Speaker_02
Here's the issue. Let's say for Mike Waltz, who's going to be the national security advisor. A lot of people don't really understand. There's this theory of national security advisor where you call me into your office and you're the president.

00:49:03 Speaker_02
You're like, hey, what do we think about Iran? I'm like, I think you should do X, Y, and Z. No, that's not how it works. The National Security Advisor's job is to coordinate the interagency process.

00:49:10 Speaker_02
So his job is to actually convene meetings, him and his staff, where in the Situation Room, CIA, State Department, SecDef, others. Before the POTUS even walks in, we have options. So we're like, hey, Russia just invaded Ukraine.

00:49:23 Speaker_02
Weed, a package of options. Those packages of options are going to concede of three things. We're going to have one group, we're going to call it the dovish option. Two, we're going to call it the middle ground. Three, the hardcore package.

00:49:33 Speaker_02
Trump walks in, this is how it's supposed to work. Trump walks in and he goes, okay, Russia invaded Ukraine. What do we do? Mr. President, we've prepared three options for you. We've got one, two, and three. Now, who has the power?

00:49:43 Speaker_02
Is it Trump when he picks one, two, or three, or is the man who decides what's even in option one, two, and three? That is the part where Trump needs to really understand how these things happen.

00:49:53 Speaker_02
And I watched this happen to him in his first administration. He hired a guy, Mike Flynn, who was his national security advisor. You could say a lot about Flynn, but him and Trump were at least like this on foreign policy.

00:50:04 Speaker_02
Flynn gets outed because what I would call an FBI coup, whatever. 33 days, he's out as a national security advisor, HR master. He's got a nice shiny uniform, four star, all of this. Master doesn't agree with Donald Trump at all.

00:50:19 Speaker_02
And so Trump says, I ran on pulling out of Afghanistan. I wanna get out of Afghanistan. They're like, yeah, yeah, yeah, we'll get out of Afghanistan. But before we get out, we gotta go back in, as in we need more troops in there. And he's like, oh, okay.

00:50:30 Speaker_02
It's like all this, and he approves a plan and effectively gives a speech in 2017 where he ends up escalating and increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan.

00:50:39 Speaker_02
And it's only until February 2020 that he gets to sign a deal, the Taliban peace deal, which in my opinion he should have done in 2017.

00:50:46 Speaker_02
But the reason why that happened was because of that organizational theory, of that bureaucratic politics theory, where H.R. McMaster is able to guide the interagency process.

00:50:55 Speaker_02
bring the uniform recommendations of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and others to give Donald Trump no option but to say we must put troops. Another example of this is a book called Obama's War by Bob Woodward.

00:51:06 Speaker_02
I highly encourage people to read this book because this book talks about how Obama comes into the White House in 2009 and he says, I want to get out of Iraq and I don't want to increase, I want to fight the good war in Afghanistan, right?

00:51:17 Speaker_02
And he's doing, Obama's a thoughtful guy. too thoughtful, actually. And so he sits there and he's working out his opinions.

00:51:24 Speaker_02
And what he starts to watch is that very slowly his narrow his options begin to narrow because strategic leaks start to come out from the White House Situation Room about what we should do in Afghanistan.

00:51:37 Speaker_02
And pretty soon, David Petraeus and Stan McChrystal and the entire national security apparatus has Obama pegged

00:51:44 Speaker_02
where he basically politically at the time decides to take the advantage position of increasing troops in Afghanistan, but then tries to have it both ways by saying, but in two years, we're gonna withdraw.

00:51:56 Speaker_02
That book really demonstrates how the deep state can completely remove any of your options to be able to move by presenting you with ones which you don't even want, and then making it politically completely infeasible

00:52:11 Speaker_02
to travel down the extreme directions. That's why when Trump says things like, I want to get out of Syria, that doesn't compute up here for the Pentagon.

00:52:19 Speaker_02
Because first of all, you know, if I even asked you how many troops we have in Syria, and you go on the DOD website, it'll tell you a number.

00:52:24 Speaker_02
That number's bullshit, because the way they do it is if you're only there for 179 days, you don't count as active, military contracts, the real number is, let's say, five times. And so Trump would be like, hey, I wanna get out of Syria.

00:52:34 Speaker_02
Yeah, we'll do it, six months, right? We need six months. And after six months ago, so are we out of Syria yet? And they're like, no, well, we gotta wrap this up. We got this base, we got that, and we have this important mission.

00:52:43 Speaker_02
And next thing you know, you're out of office and it's over. So there's all these things which I don't think he quite understands.

00:52:50 Speaker_02
I know that some of the people around him who disagree with these picks do, is the reason why these picks really matter is not only are the voices in the situation room for the really, really high profile stuff, it's for all the little things that never get to that president's desk.

00:53:02 Speaker_02
of which can shape extraordinary policy. And I'll give you the best example. There was never a decision by FDR as President of the United States to oil embargo Japan, one which he thought about as deeply as you and I would want.

00:53:16 Speaker_02
It was a decision kind of made within the State Department. It was a decision that was made by some of his advisors. I think he eventually signed off on it.

00:53:22 Speaker_02
It was a conscious choice, but it was not one which ever was understood the implications that by doing that, we invite a potential response like Pearl Harbor.

00:53:31 Speaker_02
So think about what the organizational bureaucratic model can tell us about the extraordinary blowback that we can get and why we want people with great judgment all the way up and down the entire national security chain in the White House.

00:53:44 Speaker_02
Also, I just realized I did not talk about immigration, which is so insane. One of the reasons Donald Trump won in 2024, of course, was because of the massive change to the immigration status quo.

00:53:54 Speaker_02
The truth is, is that it may actually be second to inflation in terms of the reason that Trump did win the presidency was because Joe Biden fundamentally changed the immigration status quo in this country.

00:54:04 Speaker_02
That was another thing about the Scots-Irish people and others that we need to understand is that when government machinery and elitism and liberalism

00:54:12 Speaker_02
appears to be more concerned about people who are coming here in a disorderly and illegal process and about their rights and their, you know, ability to, quote unquote, pursue the American dream while the American dream is dying for the native born population.

00:54:26 Speaker_02
That is a huge reason why people are turning against mass immigration.

00:54:31 Speaker_02
Historically as well, my friend Rehan Salam wrote a book called Melting Pot or Civil War, and one of the most important parts about that book is the history of mass migration to the United States.

00:54:42 Speaker_02
So if we think about the transition from Scots-Irish America to the opening of America to the Irish and to mass European immigration, what a lot of people don't realize is it caused a ton of problems.

00:54:56 Speaker_02
There were mass movements at that time, the Know Nothings and others in the 1860s, who rose up against mass European migration. They were particularly concerned about Catholicism.

00:55:06 Speaker_02
by as the religion of a lot of the new immigrants but really what it was is about the changing of the American character by people who are not have the same traditions, values, and skills as the native-born population and their understanding of what they're owed and their role in American society is very different from the way that people previously had.

00:55:26 Speaker_02
One of the most tumultuous periods of U.S. politics was actually during the resolution of the immigration question, where we had massive waves of foreign-born population come to the United States.

00:55:37 Speaker_02
We had them, you know, integrated, luckily, actually, at the time, with the Industrial Revolution. So we actually did have jobs for them.

00:55:46 Speaker_02
One of the problems is that today in the United States, we have one of the highest levels of foreign-born population than ever before, actually, since that time. in the early 1900s, but we have all of the same attendant problems.

00:55:58 Speaker_02
But even worse is we don't live in an industrial economy anymore. We live in a predominantly service-based economy that has long moved past manufacturing.

00:56:07 Speaker_02
Now, I'm not saying we shouldn't bring some of that back, but the truth is that manufacturing today is not what it was to work in a steel mill in 1875. I think we can all be reasonable and we can agree on that.

00:56:18 Speaker_02
And part of the problems with extremely high levels of foreign-born population particularly unskilled. And the vast majority of the people who are coming here and who are claiming asylum are doing so under fraudulent purposes.

00:56:29 Speaker_02
They're doing so because they are economic migrants and they're abusing asylum law to basically gain entrance to the United States without going through a process of application or of merit. And

00:56:41 Speaker_02
This has all of its traces back to 1965, where the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965 really reversed and changed the status quo of immigration from the 1920s to 1960, which really shut down levels of immigration in the United States.

00:56:58 Speaker_02
In my opinion, it was one of the most important things that ever happened. And one of the reasons why is it forced and caused integration.

00:57:05 Speaker_02
It also forced, by slowing down the increase in the number of foreign-born population, it redeveloped an American character and understanding that was more homogenous and was the ability for you and me to understand despite the difference in our background.

00:57:19 Speaker_02
If you accelerate and you continue this trend of the very high foreign-born, unskilled population, you unfortunately are basically creating a mass, you know, it's basically

00:57:30 Speaker_02
It's a non-citizen population of illegal immigrants, people who are not as skilled. You know, I think it was, I read 27% of the people who've come under Joe Biden illegally don't even have a college degree.

00:57:42 Speaker_02
That means that we're lucky if they're even literate in Spanish, let alone English. So there are major problems about integrating that type of person. You know, even in the past, whenever we had a mass industrial economy, now imagine today,

00:57:56 Speaker_02
the amount of strain that would put on social services if mass citizenship happened, you know, to that population would be extraordinary.

00:58:04 Speaker_02
And even if we were to do so, I don't think it's a good idea, but even if we were to do so, we would still need to pair it with a dramatic change. And part of the problem right now is, I don't think a lot of people understand the immigration system.

00:58:16 Speaker_02
The immigration system in the United States, effectively, they call it family-based migration. I call it chain migration. Um, chain migration is the term which implies that, uh, let's say you come over here, um, and you get your green card.

00:58:30 Speaker_02
You can use sponsorship and others by gaming the quota system to get your cousin or whatever, to be able to come. The problem with that is who is your cousin? Like, is he a plumber? Is he, you know, does he have. Is he a coder?

00:58:41 Speaker_02
That doesn't actually matter because he's your cousin, so he actually has preference. The way that it should work is it should be nobody cares if he's your cousin. What does he do? What does she do? What is she going to bring to this country?

00:58:52 Speaker_02
All immigration in the United States, in my opinion, should be net positive without doing fake statistics about Oh, they actually increased the GDP or whatever. It's like we need a merit-based immigration system.

00:59:01 Speaker_02
We are the largest country in the world and one of the only non-Western or one of the only Western countries in the world that does not have a merit-based points-based immigration system like Australia and or Canada.

00:59:13 Speaker_02
I mean, I get it because a lot of people did come to this country under non-merit-based purposes, so they're really reluctant to let that go.

00:59:20 Speaker_02
But I do think that Biden, by changing the immigration status quo and by basically just allowing tens of millions, potentially tens of millions, at the very least 12 million new entrants to come to the US under these pretenses of complete disorder and of no conduct, really broke a lot of people's understanding and even mercy in that regard.

00:59:43 Speaker_02
And so that was obviously a massive part of Trump's victory.

00:59:46 Speaker_00
Speaking of illegal immigration, what do you think about what the borders are? Tom Holman.

00:59:52 Speaker_02
Tom Holman is a very legit dude. Got to know him a little bit in Trump 1.0. He is an original, like, true believer on enforcing immigration law as it is. Now, notice how I just said that. That's a politically correct way of saying mass deportation.

01:00:10 Speaker_02
Um, uh, and I, I, I will point out for my left wing critics in that, yeah, he really believes in the ability at the, in the ability. in the necessity of mass deportation, and he has the background to be able to carry that out.

01:00:24 Speaker_02
I will give some warnings, and this will apply to Doge, too. Tsar has no statutory or constitutional authority. Tsar has as much authority as the President of the United States gives him.

01:00:36 Speaker_02
Donald Trump, I think it's fair to say, even his critics or even the people who love him could say he can be capricious at times. Um, and, uh, he can strip you or not strip you or give you the ability to compel.

01:00:47 Speaker_02
So czar in and of itself is frankly a very flawed position in the white house. And it's one that I really wish we would move away from. I understand why we do it.

01:00:56 Speaker_02
It's basically to do a national security advisor, interagency convener to accomplish certain goals. Uh, that said there is a person, Stephen Miller, who will be in the white house, the deputy white house chief of staff.

01:01:07 Speaker_02
who has well-founded beliefs, experience in government, and a rock-solid ideology on this, which I think would also give him the ability to work with Homan to pull that off.

01:01:18 Speaker_02
That said, a corollary to this, and frankly, this is the one I am the most mystified yet, is Kirstie Noem as the Department of Homeland Security Secretary. So, Let me just lay this out for people because people don't know what this is.

01:01:33 Speaker_02
Department of Homeland Security, 90% of the time the way you're going to interact with them is TSA. You don't think about it.

01:01:38 Speaker_02
But people don't know the Department of Homeland Security is one of the largest law enforcement, if maybe the largest law enforcement agency in the world. It's gigantic. You have extraordinary statutory power to be able to prove investigations.

01:01:52 Speaker_02
You have Border Patrol, ICE, TSA, CBP, all these other agencies that report up to you. But most importantly for this, you will be the public face of mass deportation.

01:02:03 Speaker_02
So I was there in the White House briefing room last time around when Kirstjen Nielsen, who was the DHS secretary, under Donald Trump and specifically the one who enforced child separation for a limited period of time. She was a smart woman.

01:02:16 Speaker_02
She has long experience in government, and honestly, she melted under the criticism. Kirstjen Ohm is the governor of South Dakota. I mean, that's great.

01:02:25 Speaker_02
You have a little bit of executive experience, but to be honest, I mean, you have no law enforcement background.

01:02:30 Speaker_02
You have no ability to like, you have no, frankly, with understanding of what it is going to be like to be the secretary of one of the most controversial programs in modern American history.

01:02:41 Speaker_02
You have to go on television and defend that every single day, a literal job requirement under Donald Trump. And you will have to have extraordinary command of the facts. You have to have a very high intellect.

01:02:53 Speaker_02
You have to have the ability to really break through. And I mean, we all watch how she handled that situation with her dog and her interviews. And that does not give me confidence that she will be able to do all that well in the position.

01:03:04 Speaker_00
So what do you think is behind that? So, uh, crystal balls theory on breaking point is that there's some kind of interpersonal, like, uh, I didn't know. I guess I should know this, but I didn't know any of the there was some cheating or whatever.

01:03:21 Speaker_02
There's a rumor. Nobody knows if it's true that Corey Lewandowski and Kirsten Gnome had a previous relationship and ongoing. Corey Lewandowski is a Trump official and that he maybe put her in front. I don't know. Is this like the Real Housewives of D.C.?

01:03:34 Speaker_02
Yeah, kind of. Although, I mean, it was the most open secret in the world. Allegedly. I don't know. It's true. Okay. All right.

01:03:38 Speaker_02
I mean, I don't like to traffic too much in personal theories, but I mean, in this respect, it might actually be correct in terms of how it all came down. I have no idea what he's thinking to be. I truly don't.

01:03:49 Speaker_02
Um, I mean, maybe it's like he was last time he said, I want a woman who's like softer and like emotionally and the ability to be the face of my immigration program. I mean, again, like I said, I don't see it in terms of her experience and her media.

01:04:04 Speaker_02
It's frankly like not very good.

01:04:07 Speaker_00
So you think she needs to be able to articulate, not just be like the softer face of this radical policy, but also be able to articulate what's happening with the reasoning behind all

01:04:17 Speaker_02
Yes, you need to give justification for everything. Here's the thing.

01:04:20 Speaker_02
Under mass deportation, the media will drag up every sob story known to planet Earth about this person and that person who came here illegally and why they deserve to stay and really what the quasi thing is that's why the program itself is bad and we should legalize everybody who was here illegally.

01:04:36 Speaker_02
Okay. So the thing is, is that you need to be able to have extraordinary oversight. You need a great team with you. You need to make sure that everything is being done by the book.

01:04:45 Speaker_02
The way that the media is being handled is that you throw every question back in their face and you say, well, you know, you either talk about crime or you talk about the enforceability of the law, the necessity.

01:04:56 Speaker_02
I mean, I just, I think articulated a very coherent case for why we need much less high levels of immigration to the United States. And I am the son of people who immigrated to this country.

01:05:07 Speaker_02
But one of the favorite phrases I heard from this from a guy named Mark Kerkorian, who's the center for immigration studies, is, we don't make immigration policy for the benefit of our grandparents.

01:05:18 Speaker_02
We make immigration policy for the benefit of our grandchildren. And that is an extraordinary and good way to put it.

01:05:23 Speaker_02
And in fact, I would say it's a triumph of the American system that somebody whose parent family benefited from the immigration regime and was able to come here.

01:05:31 Speaker_02
My parents had PhDs, came here legally, applied, spent thousands of dollars through the process, can arrive at the conclusion that actually we need to care about all of our fellow American citizens.

01:05:42 Speaker_02
I'm not talking about other Indians or, you know, whatever. I'm talking about all of us. I care about everybody who is here in this country. But fundamentally, that will mean that we are going to have to exclude some people from the US.

01:05:54 Speaker_02
And another thing that the open borders people don't ever really grapple with is that even within their own framework, It makes no sense.

01:06:03 Speaker_02
So, for example, a common left-wing talking point is that it's America's fault that El Salvador and Honduras and Central America is fucked up. And so because of that, we have a responsibility to take all those people in because it's our fault.

01:06:17 Speaker_02
or Haiti, right? But if you think about it, America is responsible, and I'm just being honest, for destroying and ruining a lot of countries. They just don't benefit from the geographic ability to walk to the United States.

01:06:30 Speaker_02
So I mean, if we're doing grievance politics, Iraqis have way more of a claim to be able to come here than anybody from El Salvador who's talking about something that happened in 1982. So within its own logic, it doesn't make any sense.

01:06:43 Speaker_02
Even under the asylum process, you know, people, I mean, people don't even know this. You're literally able to claim asylum from domestic violence, okay? There are, I mean, imagine that.

01:06:53 Speaker_02
Like that's, frankly, that is a local law enforcement and problem of people who are experiencing that in their home country. I know how cold-hearted this sounds, but maybe, honestly, it could be because I'm Indian.

01:07:05 Speaker_02
One of the things that whenever you visit India and you see a country with over a billion people, you're like, holy shit, you know, this? This is crazy. And you understand both the sheer numbers of the amount of people involved.

01:07:18 Speaker_02
And also, there is nothing in the world you could ever do to solve all problems for everybody. It's a very complex and dynamic problem.

01:07:25 Speaker_02
And it's really nice to be bleeding heart and to say, Oh, well, we have responsibility to this and to all mankind and all that, but it doesn't work. It doesn't work with a nation state. It doesn't work with a sovereign nation.

01:07:34 Speaker_02
We're the luckiest people in the history of the world to live here in this country, and you need to protect it. And protecting it requires really thinking about the fundamentals of immigration itself and not telling us stories.

01:07:47 Speaker_02
There's a famous moment in the Trump White House where Jim Acosta, CNN White House correspondent, got into it with Stephen Miller, the current – who will be the current deputy chief.

01:07:58 Speaker_02
And he was like, what do you say – something along the lines to people who say you're violating that quote on the Statue of Liberty, like give me you're tired, you're poor, you're hungry.

01:08:06 Speaker_02
uh all of that the emma lazarus quote and steven very logically was like what level of immigration comports with the emma lazarus quote is it 200 000 people a year is it 300 is it 1 million is it 1.5 million and that's such a great way of putting it because

01:08:22 Speaker_02
There is no limiting principle on Emma Lazarus' quote. There is, when you start talking honestly, you're like, okay, we live in X, Y, and Z society with X, Y, and Z GDP.

01:08:33 Speaker_02
People who are coming here should be able to benefit for themselves and us, not rely on welfare, not be people who we have to take care of after because we have our own problems here right now.

01:08:43 Speaker_02
And who are the population, the types of people that we can study and look at who will be able to benefit? And based on that, yeah, immigration is great.

01:08:50 Speaker_02
But there are a lot of economic, legal, and societal reasons for why you definitely don't want the current level.

01:09:00 Speaker_02
Another thing is, even if we turn the switch and we still let in a million five people a year under the chain family-based migration, I think it would be a colossal mistake because it's not rooted in the idea that people who are coming to America are explicitly doing so at the benefit of America.

01:09:20 Speaker_02
It's doing so based on the familial connections of people who already gamed the immigration system to be able to come here. I have a lot of family in India, and I love them, and some of them are actually very talented and qualified.

01:09:31 Speaker_02
If they wanted to come here, I think they should be able to apply on their own merit, and that should have nothing to do with their familial status to the fact that I'm a US citizen.

01:09:39 Speaker_00
Like you mentioned the book, Melting Pot or Civil War by Raihan Salam, he makes an argument against open borders. The thesis there is assimilation should be a big part.

01:09:51 Speaker_00
I guess there's some kind of optimal rate of immigration, which allows for assimilation.

01:09:55 Speaker_02
Yeah, and there are ebbs and flows. That's kind of what I was talking about historically, where, you know, I mean, the truth is, is you could walk the streets of New York City in the early 1900s and late 1890s, and you're not gonna hear any English.

01:10:06 Speaker_02
And I think that's bad. I mean, really, what you had was ethnic enclaves of people who were basically practicing their way of life, just like they did previously, bringing over a lot of their ethnic problems that they had.

01:10:17 Speaker_02
even some of their cultural like unique capabilities or whatever, bringing it to America. And then New York City police and others are figuring out like, what the hell do we do with all this?

01:10:26 Speaker_02
And it literally took shutting down immigration for an entire generation to do away with that. And there's actually still some. The point about assimilation is twofold. One is that you should have the capacity to inherit

01:10:40 Speaker_02
the understanding of the American character that has nothing to do with race. And that's so unique that I can sit here as a child of people from India and has such a deep appreciation for the Scots-Irish. I consider myself, you know, American first.

01:10:55 Speaker_02
And one of the things that I really love about that is that I have no historical relationship to anybody who fought in the Civil War.

01:11:03 Speaker_02
But I feel such kinship with a lot of the people who did and reading the memoirs and the ideas of those that did because that same mindset of the victors and the values that they were able to instill in the country for 150 years later gives me the ability to connect to them.

01:11:22 Speaker_02
And that's such an incredible victory on their part. And that's such a unique thing in almost every other country in the world. in China, in India, or wherever, you're kind of like what you are.

01:11:32 Speaker_02
You're a Hindu, you're a Jew, you're Han Chinese, you're a Uyghur, or you're Tibetan, something like that. You're born into it.

01:11:39 Speaker_02
But really, here is one of the only places in the world where you can really connect to that story and that spirit and the compounding effect of all of these different people who come to America. And that is a celebration of immigration as an idea.

01:11:52 Speaker_02
But immigration is also a discrete policy. And that policy was really screwed up by the Biden administration. And so we can celebrate the idea and also pursue a policy for all of the people in the US, our citizens, to actually be able to benefit.

01:12:08 Speaker_02
And look, it's going to be messy. And honestly, I still don't know yet if Trump will be able to pursue actual mass deportation, just because I think that I'm not sure the public is ready for it. I do support mass deportation.

01:12:20 Speaker_02
I don't know if the public is ready for it. I think, I don't know. I'll have to see, because there's a lot of different ways that you can do it. There's mandatory e-verify, which requires businesses to basically verify you're a U.S.

01:12:31 Speaker_02
citizen or you're here legally whenever they employ you, which is not the law of the land currently, which is crazy, by the way.

01:12:36 Speaker_02
Um, there's, you know, you can, uh, cut off or, uh, tax remittance payments, which are payments that are sent back to other countries like Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala. Again, illustrating my economic migrant point.

01:12:48 Speaker_02
Um, there are a lot of various different ways where you can just make it more difficult to be illegally here in the U S so people will self-deport.

01:12:53 Speaker_02
Um, but you know, if he does pursue like real mass deportation, that will be a, that will be a flashpoint in America.

01:13:00 Speaker_00
Aren't you talking about things like what Tom Holman said, worksite raids, sort of increasing the rate of that?

01:13:07 Speaker_02
Yeah, we used to do that, you know?

01:13:10 Speaker_00
But there's a rate at which you can do that where it would lead to, I mean, a radical social upheaval.

01:13:18 Speaker_02
Yeah, it will. I mean, and I think some people need to be honest here. And this actually flies in the face of, I mean, one of the most common liberal critiques is this is gonna raise prices. And yeah, I think it's true. I think it's worth it.

01:13:33 Speaker_02
But that's easy for me to say, I'm making a good living. Um, if you care about inflation, you voted for Donald Trump and your price of groceries or whatever goes up because of this immigration policy.

01:13:43 Speaker_02
Uh, I think that needs to be extremely well articulated by the president. And of course he needs to think about it. Um, the truth is, is America right now is built on cheap labor.

01:13:50 Speaker_02
It's not fair to the consumer, it's not fair to the immigrants, the illegal immigrants themselves, and it's not fair to the natural-born citizen.

01:13:58 Speaker_02
The natural-born citizen has his wages suppressed for competition by tens of millions of people who are willing to work at lower wages.

01:14:05 Speaker_02
They have to compete for housing, for social services, I mean, just even, you know, like basic stuff at a societal level. It's not fair to them.

01:14:13 Speaker_02
It's definitely not fair to the other person because, I mean, whenever people say like, who's going to build your houses or whatever, you're endorsing this quasi legal system where, you know, uninsured laborers from Mexico

01:14:28 Speaker_02
They have no guarantee of wages. They're getting paid cash under the table. They are living, you know, ten to a room. They're sending Mexican remittance payments back just so that their children can eat.

01:14:40 Speaker_02
I mean, that's not really fair to that person either. So that's the point. The point is, is that it will lead to a lot of social upheaval.

01:14:47 Speaker_02
But this gets to my Kirstie Noem point as well, is you need to be able to articulate a lot of what I just said here, because if you don't, it's going to go south real quick.

01:14:56 Speaker_00
The way Vivek articulates this is that our immigration system is deeply dishonest. Like we don't acknowledge some of the things he just said.

01:15:05 Speaker_02
Yeah, exactly.

01:15:06 Speaker_00
And he wants to make it honest. So if we don't do mass deportation, at least you have to be really honest about the living conditions of illegal immigrants. about basically mistreatment of them.

01:15:18 Speaker_02
Yes, it's true. I mean, you know, if you support mass illegal migration, you're basically supporting tens of millions who are living lives as second class citizens. That's not fair to them. I also think it's deeply paternalistic.

01:15:32 Speaker_02
So there's this idea that America has so ruined these Central American countries that they have no agency whatsoever and they can never turn things around. What does that say about our confidence in them?

01:15:45 Speaker_02
You know, one of the things they always say there, Oh, they're law abiding. They're great people and all that. I agree. Okay.

01:15:50 Speaker_02
By and large, I'm not saying these are bad people, but I am saying like, if they're not bad and they're law abiding and they're citizens and thoughtful and all that, they can fix their own countries. And they did in El Salvador.

01:16:00 Speaker_02
That's the perfect example. Look at the dramatic drop in their crime rate. Bukele is one of the most popular leaders in all of South America. That is proof positive that you can change things around despite perhaps a legacy of U.S. intervention.

01:16:14 Speaker_02
So, you know, to just say, this idea that, you know, because it's America's fault that they're screwed up, it takes agency away from them.

01:16:22 Speaker_02
You know, another really key part of this dishonesty, this really gets to Springfield and the whole Haitian thing, because everybody, you know, beyond the eating cats and dogs, everybody does not even acknowledge, because when they're like, the Haitians are here legally, they need to actually think about the program.

01:16:36 Speaker_02
The program is called TPS. So let me explain that. TPS is called Temporary Protected Status. Note, what's the first word in that? temporary. What does that mean?

01:16:45 Speaker_02
TPS was developed under a regime in which, let's say that there was a catastrophic, I think this is a real example, I think there was like a volcano or an earthquake or something, where people were granted TPS to come to the United States.

01:16:58 Speaker_02
And the idea was they were going to go back after it was safe. They just never went back. There are children born in the United States today

01:17:05 Speaker_02
who are literally the dissent, who are adults, who are the descendants of people who are still living in the U.S. under TPS. That's a perfect example of what Vivek says is dishonest.

01:17:16 Speaker_02
You know, you can't mass de facto legalize people by saying that they're here temporarily because of a program or because of something that happened in their home country when the reality is that

01:17:28 Speaker_02
For all intents and purposes, we are acknowledging them as full legal migrants. So even the term migrant to these Haitians in Springfield makes no sense because they're supposed to be here under TPS. Migrant implies permanency.

01:17:42 Speaker_02
So the language is all dishonest and people don't want to tell you about the things I just said about chain migration. You know, the vast majority of Americans don't even know the immigration system works.

01:17:51 Speaker_02
They don't understand what I just said about TPS. They don't really understand the insanity of asylum law, where you can just literally throw up your hands and say, I fear for my life.

01:17:59 Speaker_02
And you get to live here for four or five years before your court date even happens. And, you know, by that time. get a work permit or whatever. You can, you know, get housing, like you just said, in substandard conditions.

01:18:11 Speaker_02
And you can kind of just play the game and wait before a deportation order comes. And even if it does, you never have to leave because there's no ICE agent or whatever who's going to enforce it. So the whole system is nuts right now.

01:18:21 Speaker_02
And we need complete systematic reform that burns it all to the ground.

01:18:25 Speaker_00
That said, sort of the image and the reality of a child being separated from their parents seems deeply un-American, right?

01:18:35 Speaker_02
Well, I mean, look, it gets tough. Okay, so, you know, I'm not going to defend it, but I'll just put it this way.

01:18:42 Speaker_00
Do you hate children?

01:18:43 Speaker_02
Yeah, see? That's what I mean. Do you think twice whenever you see a drug addict who's put in prison and their child is put in protective services? Nobody in America thinks twice about that, right? So, I mean, well, that's kind of screwed up.

01:18:57 Speaker_02
Well, we should think about why did we come to that conclusion?

01:19:00 Speaker_02
The conclusion was that these adults willingly broke the law and pursued a path of life which put them on a, you know, which put them on a trajectory where the state had to come in and determine that you are not allowed to

01:19:13 Speaker_02
to be a parent basically to this child while you serve your debt to society. Now, child separation was very different. Child separation was also a product of extremely strange circumstances in U.S.

01:19:24 Speaker_02
immigration law, where basically at the time, the reason why it was happening was because there was no way to prosecute people for illegal entry without child separation.

01:19:34 Speaker_02
Because previous doctrine, I believe it's called the Flores Doctrine, under some asylum law, people will have to go check my work on this,

01:19:42 Speaker_02
But basically the whole reason this evolved as a legal regime was because people figured out that if you bring a kid with you, because of the so-called Flores Doctrine or whatever, that you couldn't be prosecuted for illegal entry.

01:19:54 Speaker_02
So it was a de facto way of breaking the law. And in fact, a lot of people were bringing children here who weren't even theirs, they weren't even related to or couldn't even prove it, were bringing them to get around the prosecution for illegal entry.

01:20:10 Speaker_02
So I'm not defending child separation. I think it was horrible or whatever. But you know, if I give you the context, it does seem like a very tricky problem in terms of do we enforce the law or not? How are we able to do that?

01:20:22 Speaker_02
And the solution, honestly, is what Donald Trump did was remain in Mexico and then pursue a complete rewrite of the way that we have US asylum law applied and of asylum adjudication and really just about enforcing our actual laws.

01:20:39 Speaker_02
So when I try to explain to people is the immigration system right now is a patchwork of this deeply dishonest, such a great word, deeply dishonest system.

01:20:49 Speaker_02
in which you use the system and set it up in such ways that illegal immigration is actually one of the easiest things to do to accomplish immigration to the United States. That is wrong. My parents had to apply. It wasn't easy.

01:21:05 Speaker_02
Do you know in India, there's a temple called the Visa Temple where you walk 108 times around it, which is like a lucky number. And if you do it when you're applying for a visa to the United States, all right? It costs a lot of money, and it's hard.

01:21:17 Speaker_02
People get rejected all the time. There's billions of people across the world who would love to be able to come here. And many of them want to do so legally, and they should have to go through a process.

01:21:26 Speaker_02
The current way it works is it's easier to get here illegally than it is legally. I think that's fundamentally right. It's also unfair to people like us, whose parents did come here illegally.

01:21:33 Speaker_00
Can you steer me on the case against mass deportation? What are the strongest arguments?

01:21:37 Speaker_02
The strongest argument would be that these people contribute to society, that these people, many of whom, millions of here, have been here for many years, have children, natural-born citizens because of birthright citizenship.

01:21:50 Speaker_02
It would require something that's fundamentally inhumane and un-American, as you said. the idea of separating families across different borders simply because of what is a quote unquote like small decision of coming here illegally.

01:22:03 Speaker_02
And the best case beyond any of this moral stuff for no mass deportation is it's good for business. Illegal immigration is great for big business. It is great for big agriculture.

01:22:16 Speaker_02
So if you want the lowest prices of all time, then yeah, mass deportation is a terrible idea.

01:22:22 Speaker_00
But first of all, very convincing. And second of all, you can't just do mass deportation without also fixing the immigration system.

01:22:31 Speaker_02
Yes, exactly. And I mean, there are several pieces of legislation. H.R. 2, that's something that the Republicans have really coalesced around. It's a border bill. I encourage people to go read it and see some of the different fixes to the U.S.

01:22:42 Speaker_02
immigration system. I'm curious whether it'll actually pass or not.

01:22:46 Speaker_02
Remember, there's a very slim majority of the House of Representatives for Republicans this time around, and people vote for a lot of things when they're not in power, but when it's actually about to become the law, we'll see.

01:22:56 Speaker_02
There's a lot of swing state people out there who may think twice before casting that vote. So I'm definitely curious to see how that one plays out.

01:23:04 Speaker_02
The other thing is, is that, like I just said, the biggest beneficiary of illegal immigration is big business. So if you think they're going to take this one lying down, absolutely not. They will fight for everything that they have.

01:23:16 Speaker_02
to keep their pool of cheap labor, because it's great for them. I think J.D. said a story, I think he was on Rogan, about how he talked to a hotelier chain guy, and he was like, yeah, it's just terrible.

01:23:29 Speaker_02
It's like they would take away our whole workforce. And he was like, do you hear yourself? In terms of what you're talking, you're bragging about, but that's real, that's a real thing. And that, Tyson Foods and all these other people,

01:23:43 Speaker_02
That's another really sad part is, what I mean by second-class citizenship is this presumption, first of all, that Americans think it's too disgusting to process meat or to work in a field.

01:23:53 Speaker_02
I think anybody will do anything for the right wage, first of all.

01:23:57 Speaker_02
But second is, you know, the conditions in a lot of those facilities are horrible and they're covered up for a reason, not only in terms of the way that businesses, you know, like do they actually conduct themselves, but also to cover up their illegal immigrant workforce.

01:24:09 Speaker_02
So honestly, I think it could make things better for everything.

01:24:11 Speaker_00
You have studied how government works.

01:24:13 Speaker_02
What are the chances mass deportation happens? Well, it depends how you define it. So I mean, mass deportation can mean 1 million. I mean, nobody even knows how many people are here illegally. It could be 20 million. It could be 30.

01:24:22 Speaker_02
I've seen estimates of up to 30 million, which is crazy. That's almost one 11th of the entire US population.

01:24:27 Speaker_00
What number do you think will feel like mass deportation? One million people?

01:24:31 Speaker_02
A million people is a lot. I mean, it's a lot of people. It's a lot. I mean, but the crazy part is that's only one 12th of what Joe Biden led in the country. So that's one of those that just to give people the scale of what it will all look like.

01:24:45 Speaker_02
Do I think mass deportation will happen? It depends on the definition. Will one million over four years Yeah, I feel relatively confident in that. Anything over that, it's going to be tough to say.

01:24:58 Speaker_02
Like I said, probably the most efficient way to do it is to have mandatory verify and to have processes in place where it becomes very difficult to live in the United States illegally, and then you will have mass self-deportation and they will take the victory lap on that.

01:25:16 Speaker_02
actual like rounding millions of people up and putting them in Deportation facilities and then arranging flights to God knows all across the globe.

01:25:26 Speaker_02
That's a logistical nightmare It also costs a lot of money and don't forget Congress has to pay for all of this So, you know we can have doge or we can have you know mass deportation So those two things are kind of irreconcilable actually There's a lot of competing influences at play that people are not being real about

01:25:46 Speaker_00
Yeah, that was one of the tensions I had talking to Vivek, is he's big on mass deportation and big on making government more efficient. And it really feels like there's a tension between those two in the short term.

01:25:59 Speaker_02
Well, yes, absolutely. Also, I mean, this is a good segue. I've been wanting to talk about this. I am sympathetic to DOJ, to the whole Department of Government Efficiency.

01:26:07 Speaker_00
How unreal is it that it's called DOJ?

01:26:09 Speaker_02
Actually, with Elon, it's quite real. I guess I've just, you know, I've accepted Elon as a major political figure in the U.S.

01:26:16 Speaker_02
But the DOGE committee, the Department of Government Efficiency, is a non-statutory agency that has zero funding that Donald Trump says will advise OMB, the Office of Management and Budget. Now, two things.

01:26:31 Speaker_02
Number one is, as I predicted, Doge would become a quote-unquote Blue Ribbon Commission. So this is a non-statutory Blue Ribbon Commission that has been given authority to Vivek Ramaswamy and to Elon Musk.

01:26:44 Speaker_02
Secondary, their recommendations to government should be complete by July of 2026, according to the press release released by Trump. First of all, what that will mean is they're probably gonna need private funding to even set all this up.

01:26:56 Speaker_02
That's great, not a problem for Elon, but you're basically gonna be able to have to commission GAO reports, Government Accountability Office, and other reports and fact-finding missions across the government, which is fantastic.

01:27:08 Speaker_02
Trump can even empower you to go through to every agency and to collect figures. None of it matters one iota if Republican appropriators in the House of Representatives care what you have to say.

01:27:19 Speaker_02
Historically, they don't give a shit what the executive office has to say. So every year, the president releases his own budget. It used to mean something, but in the last decade or so, it's become completely meaningless.

01:27:31 Speaker_02
The House Ways and Means Committee and the People's House are the ones who originate all appropriations and set up spending. So that's one, is that DOJ in and of itself has no power. It has no ability to compel or force people to do anything.

01:27:46 Speaker_02
Its entire case for being, really, if you think about it mechanically, is to try and convince and provide a report to Republican legislators to be able to cut spending. So that's that.

01:27:57 Speaker_02
Now, we all know how Congress takes to government reports and whether they get acted on or not. So that's number one. Number two is the figures that Elon is throwing out there.

01:28:08 Speaker_02
Again, I want to give them some advice because people do not understand federal government spending.

01:28:13 Speaker_02
The absolute vast majority of government spending is entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, which are untouchable under Donald Trump and the most politically popular programs in the world, and military spending.

01:28:27 Speaker_02
Discretionary non-military spending, I don't have the exact figure in front of me, is a very, very small part of the federal budget. Now, within that small slice, About 90% of that eight is bipartisan and is supported by like everybody.

01:28:42 Speaker_02
Noah, you know, the hurricane guys, like people like that, you know, people who are flying into the eye of the hurricane, people who are government inspectors of X, Y, and Z. The parts that are controversial that you're actually able to touch.

01:28:54 Speaker_02
Things like welfare programs, like food stamps, is an extraordinary small slice. So what's the number he put out there? Five trillion? Something like that? There is only one way to do that.

01:29:05 Speaker_02
And realistically, under the current thing, you have to radically change the entire way that the Pentagon buys everything. Um, and I, I support that, but I just want to be very, very clear, but I haven't seen enough, uh, energy around that.

01:29:18 Speaker_02
There's a, there's this real belief in the U S that we spend billions on all of these programs that are doing complete bullshit. But like the truth, the absolute vast majority of it is military spending and entitlements.

01:29:31 Speaker_02
Trump has made clear entitlements are off the table. It's not going to happen. So.

01:29:34 Speaker_02
The way that you're going to be able to cut realistically military spending over a decade-long period is to really change the way that the United States procures military equipment, hands out government contracts.

01:29:49 Speaker_02
Elon actually does have the background to be able to accomplish this because he has had to wrangle with SpaceX and the bullshit that Boeing has been pulling for over a decade. But I really want everybody's expectations to be very set around this.

01:30:01 Speaker_02
Just remember, non-statutory, blue ribbon. So if he's serious about it, I just laid out all of these hurdles that he's going to have to overcome. And I'm not saying him and Vivek aren't serious dudes, but you got to really know the system.

01:30:15 Speaker_02
to be able to accomplish this.

01:30:16 Speaker_00
So you just laid out the reality of how Washington works. To give the counterpoint that I think you're probably also rooting for, is that one is a statement like Peter Thiel said, don't bet against Elon. Sure.

01:30:31 Speaker_00
One of the things that you don't usually have with Blue Ribbon is the kind of megaphone that Elon has. True. And I would even set the financial aspects aside.

01:30:42 Speaker_00
Just the influence he has with the megaphone, but also just with other people who are also really influential. I think that can have real power when backed by sort of a populist movement.

01:30:56 Speaker_02
I don't disagree with you, but let me give you a case where this just failed. So, Elon endorsed who for Senate Majority Leader? Rick Scott, right? Who got the least amount of votes in the U.S. Senate for GOP leader? Rick Scott.

01:31:08 Speaker_02
John Thune is the person who got it. Now, the reason I'm bringing that up, one of my favorite books, Master of the Senate, by Robert Caro, part of the LBJ series, the Senate as an institution, it

01:31:19 Speaker_02
Reveres independence it reveres i mean the entire theory of the senate is to cool down the mob that is in the house of representatives and to deliberate that's its entire body.

01:31:32 Speaker_02
They are set up to be immune from public pressure now i'm not saying they can't be pressured. But that example I just gave on Rick Scott is a very important one of he literally endorsed somebody for leader. So did Tucker Carlson.

01:31:44 Speaker_02
So did a lot of people online. And only 13 senators voted for Rick Scott. The truth is, is that they don't care. They're set up where they're marginally popular in their own home states. They'll be able to win their primaries.

01:31:56 Speaker_02
And that's all I really need to do to get elected. And they have six-year terms. They're not even up for four years. So will Elon still be interested in politics six years from now? That's a legitimate question for a Republican senator.

01:32:05 Speaker_02
So maybe he could get the House of Representatives to sign off maybe on some of his things. But there's no guarantee that the Senate is going to agree with any of that.

01:32:14 Speaker_02
There's a story that Karros tells in the Master of the Senate book, which I love, where Thomas Jefferson was in Paris during the writing of the Constitution, and he asked Washington, he said, why did you put in a Senate, a bicameral legislature?

01:32:30 Speaker_02
And Washington said, why did you pour your tea into a saucer? And Jefferson goes, to cool it. And Washington says, just so. That's right, to explain it. He was a man of very few words. He was a brilliant man.

01:32:43 Speaker_00
Okay, so you actually outlined the most likely thing that's going to happen with Doge as it hits the wall of Washington. What is the sort of the most successful thing that can be pulled off?

01:32:57 Speaker_02
The most successful thing they could do is, right now I think they're really obsessed with designing cuts, right? And identifying cuts. I would redesign systems, systems of procurement.

01:33:09 Speaker_02
I would redesign the way that we have processes in place to dispense taxpayer dollars, because the truth is, is that appropriations itself, again, are set by the United States Congress, but the way that those appropriations are spent by the government, the executive

01:33:27 Speaker_02
has some discretionary authority.

01:33:30 Speaker_02
So your ability as the executive to be a good steward of the taxpayer money and to redesign a system, which actually I think Elon could be good at this and Vivek too in terms of their entrepreneurial spirit, is the entire Pentagon procurement thing, it needs to be burned to the ground.

01:33:44 Speaker_02
Number one, it's bad for the Pentagon. It gives them substandard equipment. It rewards very old weapon systems and programs and thinking that can be easily defeated by people who are studying that for vulnerabilities.

01:33:56 Speaker_02
The perfect example is all of this drone warfare in Ukraine and in Russia. I mean, drone warfare costs almost nothing. And yet drone swarms and hypersonic missiles pose huge dangers to U.S. systems, which cost more than hundreds of billions of dollars.

01:34:14 Speaker_02
So my point is that giving nimble procurement and systemic change in the way that we think about executing the mission that Congress does give you actually could save the most amount of money in the long run. That's where I would really focus in on.

01:34:29 Speaker_02
The other one is, you know, counter to everything I just said, is maybe they listen. Maybe the Republicans are like, yeah, OK, let's do it. The problem again, though, is swing state people who need to get reelected, they need to do one thing.

01:34:43 Speaker_02
They need to deliver for their district. They need to run on stuff. And nobody has ever run on cutting money for your state. They have run on bringing money to your state.

01:34:53 Speaker_02
And that's why earmarks and a lot of these other things are extraordinarily popular in Congress is because it's such an easy way to show constituents how you're working for them whenever it does come reelection time. So it's a very difficult system.

01:35:08 Speaker_02
And I also want to tell people who are frustrated by this, I share your frustration, but the system is designed to work this way. And for two centuries, the Senate has stood as a bulwark against literally every popular change.

01:35:21 Speaker_02
And because of that, it's designed to make sure that it's so popular for long enough that it has to become inevitable before the status quo can change. That's really, really frustrating, but you should take comfort in that it's always been that way.

01:35:33 Speaker_02
So it's been okay.

01:35:35 Speaker_00
Well, as I've learned from one of the recommendations of the age of acrimony, as I feel embarrassed that I didn't know that senators used to not be elected. What a crazy system, huh?

01:35:45 Speaker_00
Yeah, I mean, many of the things we take for granted now as defining our democracy was was kind of invented, developed after the Civil War, in the sort of 50 years after the Civil War. Absolutely correct.

01:36:01 Speaker_02
Age of Acrimony, oh my God. I love that book. I cannot recommend it enough. It is so important.

01:36:06 Speaker_02
And one of the biggest mistakes that Americans make is that we study periods where greatness happened, but we don't often study periods where nothing happened or where really bad shit happened. You know, we don't spend nearly enough.

01:36:19 Speaker_02
Americans know about FDR. They don't really know anything about the Depression or how we got there. What was it like to be alive in the United States in 1840, right? Nobody thinks about that, really, because it's kind of an in-between time in history.

01:36:32 Speaker_02
There are people who lived their entire lives, who were born. who had to live through those times, who were just as conscientious and intelligent as you and I are and were just trying to figure shit out and things felt really big.

01:36:42 Speaker_02
So the age of acrimony is a time where it's almost completely ignored outside of the Gilded Age aspect. But like you just said, it was a time where progressive reform of government

01:36:51 Speaker_02
and of the tension between civil rights, extraordinary wealth, and democracy, and really the reigning in of big business, so many of our foundations happened exactly in that time.

01:37:05 Speaker_02
And I take a lot of comfort from that book because one of the things I learned from the book is that voter participation is highest when people are pissed off, not when they're happy. And that's such a counterintuitive thing.

01:37:16 Speaker_02
But voter participation goes down when the system is working. So 2020, right, I think we can all agree it was a very tense election. That's also why it had the highest voter participation ever. 2024, very high rates of participation.

01:37:29 Speaker_02
Same thing, people are pissed off, and that's actually what drives them to the vote. But something that I take comfort in that is that people being pissed off and people going out to vote, it actually does have major impact.

01:37:39 Speaker_02
on the system because otherwise the status quo is basically allowed to continue.

01:37:44 Speaker_02
And so yeah, like you just said, I mean, direct election of senators wasn't, I mean, there are probably people alive today who are like, who could, who were born when there was no direct election of senators, which is an insane thing to think about.

01:37:55 Speaker_02
I mean, there'd be almost a hundred or so, but. The point is that at that time, it was so deeply corrupt, and it was one where the quasi-aristocracy from the early days leading into the Gilded Age were able to enforce their will upon the people.

01:38:09 Speaker_02
But you can take comfort in that that was one of those areas where Americans were so fed up with it, they changed the Constitution and actually forced the aristocrats in power to give their own power.

01:38:20 Speaker_02
It's like our version of when they flipped power and took away the legislative power of the House of Lords in the UK. I just think that's amazing. And it's such a cool thing about our country and the UK too.

01:38:31 Speaker_00
It's the continued battle between the people and the elite, right? And we should mention not just the direct election of senators, but the election of candidates for a party. That was also invented.

01:38:47 Speaker_00
It used to be that the quote-unquote party bosses, I say that with a half a chuckle, chose the candidate.

01:38:55 Speaker_02
Yeah, the whole system is nuts. The way that we currently experience politics is such a modern invention.

01:39:00 Speaker_00
with a little asterisk with Kamala Harris, but right.

01:39:03 Speaker_02
Yeah, good point. But well, that was actually more of a mean reversion, right? We're living in an extraordinarily new era where we actually have more input than ever on who our candidates are. It used to be. This is crazy.

01:39:15 Speaker_02
So the conventions have always took in place two months before. Right. Imagine a world where you did not know who the nominee was going to be before that convention. And the nominee literally was decided at that convention. by those party bosses.

01:39:27 Speaker_02
Even crazier, there used to be a standard in American politics where presidents did not directly campaign. They, in fact, did not even comment about the news or mention their opponents' names.

01:39:38 Speaker_02
They would give speeches from their doorstep, but it was unseemly for them to engage in direct politics.

01:39:45 Speaker_00
You would not get a Bernie Sanders. No, no. You would not get a Donald Trump.

01:39:49 Speaker_02
Obama, Bill Clinton. I mean, Basically, every president from John F. Kennedy onwards has been a product of the new system. Every president prior to that has been much more of the older system.

01:39:59 Speaker_02
There was a in-between period post-FDR where things were really changing, but the primary system itself had its first true big win under John F. Kennedy.

01:40:08 Speaker_00
I think that the lesson from that is there's a collective wisdom to the people, right?

01:40:12 Speaker_02
I think so. I think it works. Yeah, I mean, well, okay, I'll steel man it. We had some great presidents in the party boss era. FDR was a great president. FDR was the master of coalitional politics, of his ability.

01:40:26 Speaker_02
In fact, what really made him a genius was his ability to get this, overthrow the support of a lot of the corruption and the elite Democrats to take control in there at the convention.

01:40:37 Speaker_02
and then combine his personal popularity to fuse all systems of power where he had the elites basically under his boot because he was the king and he used his popular power and his support from the people to be able to enforce things up and down.

01:40:53 Speaker_02
I mean, you know, even in the party boss era, we would have no, a lot of the people we revere really came out of that, people like Abraham Lincoln. I mean, I don't think Abraham Lincoln would have won a party primary in 1860. There's no chance.

01:41:07 Speaker_02
He won, luck, thank God, from an insane process in the 1860 Republican Convention. People should go read about that because that was wild. I think we were this close to not having Lincoln as president.

01:41:21 Speaker_02
And yeah, I mean, Teddy Roosevelt, there's so many that I could point to who made great impacts on history. So the system does find a way to still produce good stuff.

01:41:29 Speaker_00
That was a kind of beautiful diversion from the Doge discussion. If we can return briefly to Doge.

01:41:36 Speaker_00
So you kind of talked about cost cutting, but there's also increasing the efficiency of government, which you also kind of talked about with procurement. So maybe we can throw into the pile the 400 plus federal agencies.

01:41:50 Speaker_00
So let's take another perspective on what success might look like. So like radically successful Doge. Would it basically cut a lot of federal agencies?

01:42:02 Speaker_02
Probably combine.

01:42:04 Speaker_00
Combine.

01:42:04 Speaker_02
Okay, so I can give great examples of this, because I have great insight. Like, for each agency, we'll often use different, like, payroll systems. They'll have different internal processes, right? That makes no sense.

01:42:16 Speaker_02
And it's all because it's antiquated. Now, everybody always talks about changing it, but there are a lot of like party interests about why certain people get certain things.

01:42:28 Speaker_02
The real problem with government, the people like us who are private and like, for example, when you want to do something, you can just do it. So I was listening to a really interesting analysis about law enforcement. and the military.

01:42:41 Speaker_02
So I think the story was that the military was assigned, some National Guard guys were assigned to help with the border, and they were trying to provide, I think it was translation services to people at Border Patrol.

01:42:53 Speaker_02
But somebody had to come down and be like, hey, this has got to stop. According to U.S. Code X, Y, and Z, the United States military cannot help with law enforcement abilities here.

01:43:04 Speaker_02
And so even though that makes absolutely no sense, because they're all work, there are literal legal statutes in place that prevent you from doing the most efficient thing possible.

01:43:13 Speaker_02
So for some reason, we have to have a ton of Spanish speakers in South Com, you know, in the US command that is responsible for South America. who literally cannot help with a crisis at the border.

01:43:25 Speaker_02
Now, maybe you can find some legal chicanery to make that work, but man, you got to have an attorney general who knows what he's doing. You need a White House counsel. You need to make sure that shit stands up in a court of law.

01:43:36 Speaker_02
I mean, it's not so simple. Whereas let's say, you know, you have a software right here and you want to get a new software. You can just do it. You can, you hire whoever you want.

01:43:43 Speaker_02
When you're the government, there's a whole process you got to go through about bidding. And it just takes forever. And it is so inefficient. But unfortunately, the inefficiency is really derivative of a lot of legal statutes. And that is something that

01:44:01 Speaker_02
Yeah, again, actually, you know, radically successful doge, quote unquote, would be study the law, and then change it.

01:44:08 Speaker_02
Like, figure instead of cost cutting, like, cut this program or whatever, like I just said about why do different systems use payroll, just say that you can change the statute under which new software can be updated, let's say after 90 days.

01:44:24 Speaker_02
You know, I've heard stories of people who work for the government who still have like IBM mainframe that they're still in 2024 that they're still working because those systems have never been updated.

01:44:33 Speaker_02
There's also a big problem with a lot of this clearance stuff. That's where a lot of inefficiency happens because a lot of contractors can only work based upon previous clearance that they already got. achieving a clearance is very expensive.

01:44:45 Speaker_02
It's very lengthy process. I'm not saying it shouldn't be talking about security clearance, but it does naturally, you know, create a very small pool that you can draw some contracts from.

01:44:55 Speaker_02
And I even mean stuff like, like the janitor at the Pentagon needs a security service, right? So clearance. So There's only like five people who can even apply for that contract.

01:45:06 Speaker_02
Well, naturally in an interim monopoly like that, he's going to jack his price up because he literally has a moat around his product.

01:45:13 Speaker_02
Whereas if you were, I are hiring a gent, whatever, anybody, uh, for anything that type of credentialism and legal regime, it doesn't matter at all. So there are a million problems like this that people in government, uh, run into.

01:45:25 Speaker_02
And that is what I would see as the most successful.

01:45:28 Speaker_00
You know, paperwork slows everything down and it feels impossible to break through that in a sort of incremental way. It's so hard.

01:45:36 Speaker_00
It feels like the only way to do it is to literally shut down agencies in some kind of radical way and then build up from scratch. Of course, as you highlight, that's going to be opposed by a lot of people within government.

01:45:53 Speaker_02
Well, historically, there's only one way to do it, and it's a really bad answer, war.

01:45:58 Speaker_00
War, yeah. So I was gonna say, basically, you have the kind of consensus where, okay, all this stupid bureaucratic bullshit we've been doing, we need to put that shit aside, get the fuck out of here, we need to win a war.

01:46:12 Speaker_00
So like all the paperwork, all the lawyers go leave.

01:46:16 Speaker_02
Yeah, yeah, exactly. No, but I want people to really understand that. Up until 1865 or 1860, I forget the exact year, we didn't even have national currency. And then we were like, well, we need a greenback.

01:46:30 Speaker_02
And prior to that, people would freak out if we were talking about having national currency, greenback, backed by the US government and all that. Not even a question. Passed in like two weeks in the U.S. Congress.

01:46:41 Speaker_02
An income tax eventually went away, but not even in the realm of possibility, and they decided to pass it.

01:46:47 Speaker_02
Same thing after World War I. And you think about how World War II, I mean, World War II just fundamentally changed the entire way the United States government works. Even the DHS, which I mentioned earlier, the Department of Homeland Security,

01:47:00 Speaker_02
It didn't even exist prior to 9-11. It was done as response to 9-11 to coalesce all of those agencies under one branch to make sure that nothing like that could ever happen again.

01:47:12 Speaker_02
And so historically, unfortunately, absolute shitshow disaster war is the only thing that moves and throws the paperwork off the table.

01:47:22 Speaker_02
And I wish I wasn't such a downer, but I've just, I've read too much and I've had enough experience now in Washington to just see how these dreams get crushed instantly. And I wish it wasn't that way.

01:47:35 Speaker_02
I mean, it's a cool idea and I want people who are inspired, who are getting into politics to think that they can do something, but I want them to be realistic too.

01:47:42 Speaker_02
And I want them to know what they're signing up for whenever they do something like that. And the titanic amount of work it is going to take for you to be able to accomplish something.

01:47:48 Speaker_00
Yeah, but I've also heard a lot of people in Silicon Valley laughing when Elon rolled in and fired 90% of Twitter. Here's this guy, Elon Musk.

01:47:57 Speaker_02
You are absolutely correct.

01:47:58 Speaker_00
Knows nothing about running a social media company. Of course, you need all these servers. Of course, you need all these employees. Right. And nevertheless, the service keeps running.

01:48:07 Speaker_02
He figured it out and you have to give him eternal credit for that. I guess the difference is there was no law that he could fire him. There was no

01:48:16 Speaker_02
Like like at the end of the hill in the company you know we had total discretion of his ability to move so i'm not even saying his ideas are bad i'm saying that the ability that's what makes him such an incredible visionary entrepreneur it's movement it's.

01:48:32 Speaker_02
deference at times to the right people, but also the knowledge of every individual piece of the machine and his ability to come in and to execute his full vision at any time and override any of the managers.

01:48:44 Speaker_02
So I talked previously about the professional managerial class and the managerial revolution.

01:48:49 Speaker_02
Elon is one of the few people who's ever built a multi-billion dollar company who has not actually fallen victim to the managerial revolution and against entrepreneurship and innovation that happens there. There are very few people who can do it.

01:49:00 Speaker_02
Elon, Steve Jobs, but you know, what do we learn is that unfortunately after Steve died, Apple basically did succumb to the managerial revolution and has become like the product, you know, they make all their money by printing services and making it impossible to leave this ecosystem as opposed to building the most cool product ever.

01:49:20 Speaker_02
As much as I love my vision pro don't get me wrong.

01:49:22 Speaker_00
I think you just admitted that you're part of a cult.

01:49:24 Speaker_02
I know, I literally am. I am, I fully admit it.

01:49:28 Speaker_00
I miss Steve. The grass is green on the other side, come join us. Okay, whether it's Elon or somebody else, what gives you hope about something like a radical transformation of government towards efficiency, towards being more slim?

01:49:45 Speaker_00
What gives you hope that that will be possible?

01:49:47 Speaker_02
Well, I wouldn't put it that way. I don't think slimness in and of itself is a good thing. What I care about is the relationship to people in its government.

01:49:55 Speaker_02
So the biggest problem that we have is that we have a complete loss of faith in all of our institutions.

01:50:01 Speaker_02
And I really encourage people, I don't think people can quite understand what the relationship between America and its government was like after World War II and after FDR. Like 90% of the people trusted the government. That's crazy.

01:50:17 Speaker_02
Like when the president said something, they were like, OK, he's not lying. Think about our cynical attitude towards politicians today. That is largely the fault of Lyndon Johnson and of Richard Nixon and that entire fallout period of Vietnam.

01:50:31 Speaker_02
Vietnam in particular really broke. the American character and its ability and its relationship with government. And we've never recovered faith in institutions ever since that. And it's really unfortunate.

01:50:41 Speaker_02
So what makes me hopeful, at least this time, is anytime a president wins a popular vote and an election is they have the ability to reset and to actually try and build something that is new

01:50:53 Speaker_02
And so what I would hope is that this is different from the first Trump administration in which the mandate for Donald Trump is actually carried out competently. Yes, he can do his antics, which got him elected.

01:51:08 Speaker_02
You know, at this point, we can't deny it. McDonald's thing is hilarious. It's funny. It is. People love it. People like the podcasting. People like

01:51:15 Speaker_00
Garbage truck.

01:51:16 Speaker_02
The garbage truck. Yeah, exactly. They like the stunts and he will always excel and he will continue to do that.

01:51:22 Speaker_02
There are policy and other things that he can and should do, like the pursuit of no war, like solving the immigration question, and also really figuring out our economy, the way that it currently runs, and changing it so that the actual American dream is more achievable.

01:51:40 Speaker_02
And housing is one of the chief problems that we have right now. The real thing is Donald Trump was elected on the backs of the working man. I mean, it's just true. Households under $100,000 voted for Donald Trump.

01:51:51 Speaker_02
Maybe they didn't do so for economic reasons. I think a lot of them did for economic, but a lot of them did for immigration, for cultural, but you still owe them something and there is a...

01:52:00 Speaker_02
I would hope that they could carry something out in that respect that is not a similar continuation and chaotic vibe of the first time where everything felt like it exploded any time with staffing, with even his policy or what he cared about or his ability to pursue.

01:52:16 Speaker_02
And a lot of that does come back to personnel. So I'm concerned in some respects, I'm like, you know, not thrilled in some respects, I'm happy in some respects, but it remains to be seen how he's going to do it.

01:52:27 Speaker_00
To the degree it's possible to see Trumpism and MAGA as a coherent ideology, what do you think are the central pillars of it?

01:52:35 Speaker_02
MAGA is a rejection of cultural elitism. That's what I would say. Cultural elitism, though, has many different categories.

01:52:44 Speaker_02
Immigration is one, right, is that cultural elitism and cultural liberalism has a fundamental belief that immigration in and of itself is a natural good at any and all levels, that all immigrants are like replacement level, that there is no difference between them.

01:52:58 Speaker_02
Cultural elitism in a foreign policy context

01:53:01 Speaker_02
comes back to a lot of that human rights, democracy stuff that I was talking about earlier, which divorces American values from American interests and says that actually American values are American interests.

01:53:14 Speaker_02
Cultural elitism and liberalism leads to the worship of the postal rights era of bureaucracy that I talked about from those two books of DEI, quote unquote woke, and of progressive social ideology. So I would put all those together

01:53:29 Speaker_02
as ultimately what MAGA is. It is a screw you. I once drove past, it was in rural Nevada and I was driving, and I drove past the biggest sign I've ever seen, political sign to this day.

01:53:42 Speaker_02
And it's just, it was in 2020, it just said, Trump, fuck your feelings. And I still believe that is the most coherent MAGA thing

01:53:50 Speaker_02
I've ever seen because everyone's always like, how can a neocon and Tulsi Gabbard and RFK and all these other people, how can they all exist under the same umbrella? And I'm like, it's very simple.

01:54:03 Speaker_02
All of them have rejected the cultural elite in their own way, certainly, but they've arrived at the same place.

01:54:10 Speaker_02
It's an umbrella and it's an umbrella fundamentally, which has nothing to do with the status quo and with the currently established cultural elite. That doesn't mean they're not elite and they're not rich in their own regards.

01:54:21 Speaker_02
That doesn't mean they don't disagree, but that's the one thing that unites the entire party. And so that's the way I would put it.

01:54:27 Speaker_00
Anticultural elite. Is that synonymous with anti-establishment? So basic distrust of all institutions? Is elitism connected to institutions?

01:54:37 Speaker_02
Yes, absolutely, because elites are the ones who runs our institutions. That said, anti-establishment is really not the right word because there are a lot of left wingers who are anti-establishment, right?

01:54:48 Speaker_02
They are against that, but they're not anti-cultural leftism. And that's the key distinction between MAGA and like left populism. Left populism basically does agree.

01:54:57 Speaker_02
They agree with like basic conceits, like racism is one of the biggest problem facing America. They're like, one of the ways that we would fix that is through class-oriented economic programs in order to address that.

01:55:10 Speaker_02
But we believe in, I don't know, like reparations as a concept. It's just more about how we arrive there. Whereas in MAGA, we would say, no, we actually don't think that at all. We think we've evolved past that.

01:55:21 Speaker_02
And we think that the best way to fix it is actually similar policy prescription, but the mindset matters a lot. So the real distinction between MAGA and like left populism really is on culture.

01:55:33 Speaker_02
Trans in particular, orientation about, actually immigration may be the biggest one. Because if you look at the history of Bernie Sanders, you know, Bernie Sanders was a person who railed against open borders and against mass migration for years.

01:55:47 Speaker_02
There are famous interviews of him on YouTube with Lou Dobbs, who's one of the hardcore immigration guys. And they agree with each other and Lou is like, Bernie's one of the only guys. out there.

01:55:57 Speaker_02
Bernie, at the end of the day, he had to succumb to the cultural left and its changing attitudes on mass immigration.

01:56:04 Speaker_02
There are some famous clips from 2015 in a Vox interview that he gave where he started, I think he started talking about how the open borders is a Koch brothers libertarian concept, right?

01:56:15 Speaker_02
Because Bernie is basically of a European welfare state tradition. European welfare states are very simply understood. We have high taxes, high services, low rates of immigration.

01:56:26 Speaker_02
Because we have high taxes and high services, we have a limited pool of people who can experience and take those services. He used to understand that. He changed a lot of his attitude.

01:56:35 Speaker_02
Bernie also, I will say, look, he's a courageous man and a courageous politician. As late as 2017, he actually endorsed a pro-life candidate because he said that that pro-life candidate was pro-worker.

01:56:47 Speaker_02
And he's like, at the end of the day, I care about pro-worker policy. He took a ton of shit for it, and I don't think he's done it since. So the sad part that's really happened is that a lot of left populist agenda and other has become subsumed

01:57:01 Speaker_02
you know, in the hysteria around cultural leftism, wokeism, whatever the hell you want to call it, and that ultimately that cultural leftism was the thing that really united, you know, the two wings of that party.

01:57:12 Speaker_02
And that's really why MAGA is very opposed to that. They're really not the same, but the left populace can still be anti-establishment. That's the key.

01:57:21 Speaker_00
It's interesting to think of the left cultural elite subsuming, consuming Bernie Sanders, the left populist. So you think that's what happened?

01:57:31 Speaker_02
That's what I would say.

01:57:32 Speaker_00
What do you think happened in 2016 with Bernie? Is there a possible future where he would have won? You and Crystal wrote a book on populism in 2020.

01:57:41 Speaker_00
So from that perspective, just looking at 2016, if he rejected wokeism at that time, by the way, that would be pretty gangster during 2016, would he have, because I think Hillary went towards the left more, right? Am I remembering that correctly?

01:57:58 Speaker_02
It was a very weird time. So yes and no. It wasn't full-on BLM mania like it was in 2020, but the signs were all there. So the Great Awakening was in 2014. I know it's a ridiculous term. I'm sorry. I love it. Please keep saying it.

01:58:16 Speaker_02
Just to give the origin, the great awakening is about the great religious revival in the United States. So people had, you know, because wokeism is a religion, you know, that's a common refrain.

01:58:25 Speaker_02
They were like, the great awokening is a really good term.

01:58:27 Speaker_00
So thank you for explaining the joke. Yeah.

01:58:28 Speaker_02
So the Great Awokening is basically when racial attitudes amongst college-educated whites basically flipped on its head. There are a variety of reasons why this happened.

01:58:38 Speaker_02
I really believe that Ta-Nehisi Coates' case for reparations in the Atlantic is one of those. It radicalized an entire generation of basically white college-educated women to think completely differently on race. It was during Ferguson,

01:58:52 Speaker_02
And that also happened immediately after the Trayvon Martin case. Those two things really set the stage for the eventual BLM takeover of 2020.

01:59:01 Speaker_02
But fundamentally, what they did is they changed racial attitudes amongst college educated elites to really think in a race first construct. And worse is that they were rejected in 2016 at the ballot box by the election of Donald Trump.

01:59:15 Speaker_02
And in response, they ramped it up because they believed that that was the framework to view the world, that people voted for Trump because he was racist and not for a variety of other reasons that they eventually did.

01:59:26 Speaker_02
And so the point around this on question of whether Bernie could have won in 2016, I don't know. Crystal seems to think so. I'm skeptical. I'm skeptical for a variety of reasons. I think the culture is honestly one of them.

01:59:41 Speaker_02
One of Trump's core issues in 2016 was immigration and Bernie and him did not agree on immigration.

01:59:47 Speaker_02
And if immigration, you know, even if people did, you know, support Bernie Sanders and his vision for working class people, like the debates and the understanding about what it would look like, like a healthcare system, which literally would pay for illegal immigrants.

02:00:00 Speaker_02
I think he would have gotten killed on that. But I could be wrong. I honestly, I will never know what that looked like.

02:00:06 Speaker_00
Let me reference you from earlier in the conversation with FDR. It's not the policy. I think if he went more anti-establishment and more populist, as opposed to trying to court, trying to be friendly with the DNC.

02:00:23 Speaker_02
Yeah, I mean, that's a great counterfactual. Nobody will really know. Look, I have a lot of love for the Bernie 2016 campaign. He has a great ad from 2016 called America. You should watch it. It's a great ad. That's another very interesting thing.

02:00:37 Speaker_02
It's unapologetically patriotic, and that is not something that you see. in a lot of left-wing circles these days. So he understood politics at a base level that a lot of people did not.

02:00:48 Speaker_02
But, you know, Bernie himself and then a lot of the Bernie movement was basically crushed by the elite Democratic Party for a variety of reasons. They hated them.

02:00:57 Speaker_02
You know, they basically, they attacked Joe Rogan for even having him on and for giving him a platform that was ridiculous, obviously backfired in their face, which is really funny.

02:01:08 Speaker_02
But there are a lot of million examples like that, you know, when they attacked Bernie for endorsing a pro-life politician and he never did it again.

02:01:15 Speaker_02
They attacked Bernie for having Bernie bros, you know, people online, the bros who were super bro Bernie. And it was his fault.

02:01:23 Speaker_02
His supporters would say nasty things about Elizabeth Warren and he would like defend straight himself and be like, yes, I'm sorry. Please, my bro is like, stop that.

02:01:32 Speaker_00
I think his biggest problem is he never went full Trump. He didn't go. He kept saying sorry.

02:01:39 Speaker_02
Yeah, I agree. I totally agree. And actually, in 2020, I did a ton of analysis on this at the time. He would always do stuff like, Joe Biden, my friend. And it's like, no, he's not your friend. He stands for everything that you disagree with. Everything.

02:01:52 Speaker_02
He'd be like, yeah, he's a nice guy, but he's not my friend. But he would always be like, Joe and I are great friends, but we have a small disagreement on this.

02:02:00 Speaker_02
But, you know, like you just said, in terms of going full Trump, they wanted to see Trump up there humiliating all of the GOP politicians that they didn't trust anymore. That's what people really wanted.

02:02:10 Speaker_02
But the other side of this is that the Democratic base in 2020 was very different than 2016, because by 2020, they full on had TDS. And they were basically like, we need to defeat Trump at all costs. We don't give a shit what your name is.

02:02:26 Speaker_02
Bernie, Biden, whatever, whichever of you is going to best defeat Trump, you get the nom. 2016 is different because they didn't full on have that like love and necessity of winning. By the way, this is a strategic advantage that the Democrats have.

02:02:43 Speaker_02
Democrats just care about winning, the current base of the party. All they want to do is win. Republican base, they don't give a shit about winning. They just love Trump. So it's nice to win.

02:02:51 Speaker_02
But one of those where they will express their id for what they really want. Now, it's worked out for them because it turns out that's a very palpable political force.

02:03:01 Speaker_02
But one of the reasons why, you know, you won't see me up here doing James Carville 40 more years is there is a law of something called thermostatic public opinion where, you know,

02:03:13 Speaker_02
The thermostat, it changes a lot whenever you actually, so when you have a left wing president in power, the country goes right. When you have a right wing president in power, the country goes left. Amazing, right?

02:03:23 Speaker_02
You can actually look at a graph of economic attitudes from the two months where Joe Biden became president after Donald Trump. So Republicans, Trump was president in the last year in office. Economy's great. Two months later, the economy is horrible.

02:03:36 Speaker_02
That is a perfect example of thermostatic opinion. And I'm not counting these Democrats out. 2004, George W. Bush wins the popular vote. He has a historic mandate to continue in Iraq. By 06, he's toasted. We have a massive midterm election.

02:03:52 Speaker_02
And by 08, we're writing books about 40 more years and how there's never going to be a Republican in office ever again. So things can change a lot in a very short period of time.

02:03:59 Speaker_00
I think also for me personally, maybe I'm deluded, sort of the great man view of history. I think some of it, it's in the programming circles, the term skills issue.

02:04:10 Speaker_00
I think some of it just has to do how good you are, how charismatic you are, how good you are as a politician. I, maybe you disagree with this, I'd love to see what you think.

02:04:19 Speaker_00
I think if Obama, if you were allowed to run for many terms, I think Obama would just keep winning. He would win 2016, he would win 2020, he would win this year, 2024.

02:04:29 Speaker_02
It's possible, but I would flip it on you and I would say Obama would never be elected if there were no term limits, because Bill Clinton would have still been president.

02:04:36 Speaker_00
Yeah. So. Well, those two, right. That's two examples of exactly. They extremely skilled politicians and somehow can appear like populists.

02:04:48 Speaker_02
Man, Bill Clinton was a force in his time and it's honestly sad what's happened to him. I was actually just talking with a friend the other day.

02:04:55 Speaker_02
I'm like, I kind of don't think that presidents should become president when they're young because they live to see themselves become irrelevant. And that must be really painful because I know what it takes to get there. Imagine being Clinton.

02:05:08 Speaker_02
I mean, your entire legacy was destroyed with Hillary Clinton in 2016.

02:05:12 Speaker_02
And then imagine being Obama, who in 2016, you could argue it's a one-off and say that Trump is just, oh, Hillary was a bad candidate, but Michelle and Barack Obama went so hard for Kamala Harris and they just got blown out in the popular vote.

02:05:27 Speaker_02
I mean, the Obama era officially ended with Donald Trump's reelection to the presidency in 2024. And that was a 20 year period where Obama was one of the most popular central figures in American politics.

02:05:39 Speaker_02
But I want to return to what you're saying because it is important. And by the way, I do not support term limits on American presidents. Are you a fascist? Well, that would imply that I don't believe in democracy.

02:05:50 Speaker_02
I actually do believe in democracy because I think the people, if they love their president, should be able to reelect him. I think FDR was amazing. I think that the term limit change was a, basically what happened is,

02:06:03 Speaker_02
that Republicans and a lot of elite Democrats always wanted to speak against FDR, but he was a god, so they couldn't. So they waited until he died.

02:06:11 Speaker_02
And then after he died, they were like, yeah, this whole third, fourth term, that can never happen again. And America didn't really think that hard about it. They were like, yeah, okay, whatever. But I mean, it had immense consequences for

02:06:24 Speaker_02
American history, Clinton is the perfect example. I mean, Bill Clinton left office even despite the Lewinsky bullshit. He had a 60% approval rating, okay? No way George W. Bush gets elected, impossible. Clinton would have blown his ass out.

02:06:39 Speaker_02
And imagine the consequences of that. We would have no Iraq. I mean, I'm not saying he was a great man. We probably still would have had the financial crisis and there's still a lot of bad stuff that would have happened, but he was a popular dude.

02:06:50 Speaker_02
And I wouldn't say he had the best judgment. At times, presidentially, definitely not personally, but I'm pretty confident we would have not gone into the Iraq War, and so that's where it really cost us.

02:07:03 Speaker_02
If you're left-wing and you're talking about Obama, yeah, I think Obama probably would have won in 2016. Although, It's counterfactual because Obama was never challenged in the same way that MAGA was able to, to the liberal consensus.

02:07:19 Speaker_02
Romney really ran this awful campaign, honestly, about cutting spending. It was very traditional Republican. It was deeply unpopular. The autopsy of that election was, we actually need to be more pro-immigration. That literally was the autopsy.

02:07:35 Speaker_02
Trump understood the assignment. There are two people who I so deeply respect for their political bets, Peter Thiel and Donald Trump.

02:07:43 Speaker_02
So one of the books that I recommended called The Unwinding by George Packer, he actually talks about Peter Thiel there. This is in 2013. And Thiel talks about, he was like, you know, whoever runs for office next,

02:07:56 Speaker_02
They don't need to run on an optimistic message. They need to run on a message that everything is fucked up and that we need to fix.

02:08:02 Speaker_02
And if you think about that's why Teal's endorsement of Trump with the American carnage message is, I mean, it took, it was shocking right at the time, but he had that fundamental insight that that's what the American people wanted. Trump too.

02:08:18 Speaker_02
comes out of an election in 2012 where the literal GOP autopsy, the report produced by the party, says we need to be pro-mass immigration. What happens?

02:08:27 Speaker_02
Immediately after 2012, they start to go for these amnesty plans, the so-called Gang of Eight plan, Marco Rubio, and all of this in 2013, it falls apart. But Republicans get punished by their base in 2014.

02:08:45 Speaker_02
So Eric Cantor, who was the House Majority Leader, the number two Republican, spent more on stake in his campaign than his primary opponent who successfully defeated him, a guy named Dave Brat.

02:08:55 Speaker_02
Dave Brat kicked his ass on the issue of immigration and said that Eric Cantor is pro-amnesty. All of the forces were there.

02:09:01 Speaker_02
And then in 2015, Trump comes down the escalator and he gives the message on immigration that the GOP base has been roaring and wanting to hear now, but that nobody wanted to listen to them. And that was his fundamental insight.

02:09:14 Speaker_02
That bet was a colossal and a titanic political bet at a time when all political

02:09:20 Speaker_02
ideology and thought process would have said that you should come out on the other side, which is where Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and all these other guys were effectively there in varying different ways.

02:09:30 Speaker_02
They were hawkish or whatever, but Trump had such a monopoly on that as an idea. That's why he wins the 2016 primary.

02:09:39 Speaker_02
And then paired with immigration, a hardline position on immigration, is this American carnage idea that actually everything is wrong. The American dream is gone. You know, we will stop this American carnage.

02:09:52 Speaker_02
And I think American carnage is one of the most important inaugural speeches ever given in American history. It's put it up against every single other speech. There's nothing else like it. That was what the country wanted at the time.

02:10:05 Speaker_02
And that's what great politicians are able to do, is they're able to suss something out. That's also why Peter Thiel is who he is, because he saw that in 2000.

02:10:14 Speaker_02
Imagine what it takes to come out of the 2012 election and to be, honestly, totally contrarian to the entire national mood and this entire theory of Obama-esque star politics and say, no, you need somebody who runs on the opposite of that to win.

02:10:29 Speaker_00
Well, we'll never know. And I love this kind of Mike Tyson versus Muhammad Ali. I still think I would have loved to see Obama versus Trump.

02:10:37 Speaker_02
Me too. I agree.

02:10:38 Speaker_00
And first of all, Obama versus Trump in 2008, Obama wins hands down.

02:10:43 Speaker_02
Well, yes, definitely.

02:10:45 Speaker_00
I love how this is a boxing talk. Yeah. Now, when 2016, Obama has a bunch of, you know, Iraq and Afghanistan.

02:10:54 Speaker_02
He's vulnerable though. I'll tell you why, DACA. That's what nobody ever talks about in the Obama-Trump thing. Don't forget, Obama takes his 2012 victory, basically says, oh, the GOP even now agrees with me on immigration.

02:11:06 Speaker_02
And then he does DACA and he legalizes, you know, X million and a number. of illegal immigrants who are here, who are brought here as children.

02:11:14 Speaker_02
That also fundamentally changed the immigration consensus on the Republican side because they were like, wait, holy shit, you can just do that? Because we don't agree with that at all. And that really ignited the base as well. So I'm not sure.

02:11:27 Speaker_02
I mean, a moment I think about a lot with Trump and just like being able to unleash the rage of the Republican bases. In the 2012 debate, Candy Crowley was the moderator with Mitt Romney and she fact-checked him famously.

02:11:40 Speaker_02
This was when fact-checking was shocking in a presidential debate. And she said something about Benghazi. And she was like, no, he did say that she like corrected Romney on behalf of Obama. To this day, it's questionable whether she was even right.

02:11:53 Speaker_02
But and Romney was just like, oh, he did. OK. Trump would have been like, excuse me, excuse me. Look at this woman. You know, he would have gone off. And I was like, and I think about that moment because that's what the Republican base wanted to hear.

02:12:07 Speaker_02
But also, it turns out America had a a lot of festering feelings about the mainstream media that it needed unleashed.

02:12:13 Speaker_02
And Trump was just this incredible vector to just blow up this system, which, I mean, if you ask me about optimism, that's the thing I'm most optimistic about.

02:12:22 Speaker_00
Yeah, but don't you think Obama had a good sense in how to turn it on, how to be anti-establishment correctly?

02:12:28 Speaker_02
I will not deny that he's one of the most talented politicians literally to ever play the game. And he is, I mean, just unbelievable rhetorical talent. Look, as a counterfactual, would he have been more talented than Hillary?

02:12:38 Speaker_02
Yeah, okay, no question, in terms of anybody would have been for that one. But... At the same time, all the signs were there. All the signs for the Trump victory and for the backlash against Obama-ism kind of as a political project, it all existed.

02:12:54 Speaker_02
If you, like I just laid the tea leaves out there, from 2012 to 2015, in retrospect, it's the most predictable thing in the world that Donald Trump will get elected. But it was crazy in the moment.

02:13:04 Speaker_02
I got to live through that, which was really fun, like professionally.

02:13:07 Speaker_00
I think it's unfortunate that he kind of let Kamala Harris borrow his reputation.

02:13:13 Speaker_02
Oh, it's, I mean, it's like, you know better, dude. You know, you defeated these people, this Clinton machine, you destroyed them. And it was awesome in 08.

02:13:25 Speaker_00
What is that? Why do you, why did he, like he's so much bigger and better than the machine. I don't get it. It's interesting, right?

02:13:32 Speaker_02
It's so weird though. I just,

02:13:34 Speaker_00
I think this was a wake-up call. 2024 was a wake-up call. The DNC machine doesn't work.

02:13:39 Speaker_02
Absolutely.

02:13:40 Speaker_00
There needs to be new blood, new Obama-like candidates.

02:13:44 Speaker_02
Well, I'm glad you brought that up because that's important too in terms of the process and the way that things currently stand. The DNC actually rigged its entire primary system under Biden, not to the benefit of Obama.

02:13:57 Speaker_02
So for example, you know how they moved away from the Iowa caucuses and they actually moved some other primaries and moved the calendar to reward traditional states that vote much more in line with the Democratic establishment.

02:14:09 Speaker_02
So the story of Barack Obama is one that not many, actually probably a lot of young people today don't even remember how it happened. In 2008, Obama was the underdog, right? And actually, here's the critical thing. Obama was losing with black people.

02:14:22 Speaker_02
Why? Black Democrats simply did not believe that white people would vote for a black guy. So Barack Obama goes to where this white state, Iowa, all in on the Iowa caucuses and shocks the world by winning the Iowa caucuses.

02:14:35 Speaker_02
Overnight, there's a shift in public opinion amongst the black population in South Carolina that says, oh shit, he actually could win. And he comes out and he wins South Carolina.

02:14:43 Speaker_02
And that's basically was near the death knell for the Hillary Clinton campaign. The problem is by moving South Carolina up, And by making it first, along with other more pro-establishment friendly places, what do we do?

02:14:55 Speaker_02
We make it so that Barack Obama can never happen again. We make it so that an older base of Democratic Party voters who listens to the elites can never have their assumptions challenged. And that's one of the worst things Joe Biden did.

02:15:10 Speaker_02
You know, I talked about his arrogance. He was so arrogant, he changed the freaking primary system. He was so arrogant, he refused to do a debate. I mean, imagine history.

02:15:20 Speaker_02
How lucky are we, honestly, that Joe Biden agreed to do that debate with Donald Trump early? And again, that was his arrogance.

02:15:28 Speaker_02
I think we're so lucky for it because if we hadn't gotten, we got to understand as a country how cooked he was and how fake everything was behind the scenes in front of all of our eyes.

02:15:40 Speaker_02
And they tried for three straight years to make sure that that would never happen. So, I mean, it's still such a crime, honestly, against the American people.

02:15:49 Speaker_00
I've been thinking about who I wanna talk to for three hours. And that's why I bring up Obama because he's,

02:15:57 Speaker_00
probably the number one person on the left I would like to hear analyze what happened in this election and what happened to the United States of America over the past 20 plus years. I can't imagine anybody else.

02:16:11 Speaker_02
Look, if anybody could do it, it'd be you, but there are layers upon layers with that man. I would love to actually sit with a talk with him.

02:16:17 Speaker_00
For real. I think it's fair to say that we talked about the great man view of history. I think you have a psychopath view of history. Where all great leaders are for sure psychopaths.

02:16:30 Speaker_02
Not for sure, there are many who are good people. Harry Truman was one. You're like some of my best friends. Harry Truman. Some, I assume, are good people. To be fair though, most of the good ones are accidents like Harry Truman.

02:16:43 Speaker_02
He never would have gotten himself elected. He was a great dude. How do you know he was a great dude? David McCullough book, I highly recommend it. Everybody should read it. Truman loved his wife. I think that's really awesome.

02:16:53 Speaker_02
I love when politicians love their wife. It's so rare. He adored his wife. He adored his daughter, spent time with them. He made family life a priority. He had really good small town judgment that he would apply to foreign affairs.

02:17:07 Speaker_02
He was just a very well-considered, very standup man. And I so appreciate that about him. Another one is John Adams. I love and revere John Adams. He's my favorite founding father. Him and John Quincy, they don't get nearly enough of their due.

02:17:23 Speaker_02
They were some of the most intelligent, well-considered. They were family men. The love, the relationship between John and Abigail Adams is literally legendary.

02:17:33 Speaker_02
And I think it's amazing, especially in the context of the 1700s, the way that he would take her counsel and into conversations. at her own ability and she would sit there and go toe to toe as much with Thomas Jefferson.

02:17:46 Speaker_02
There are some who are great, who are really, really good presidents who have good judgment and who are really good people and really think deeply about the world and have really cool personal lives.

02:17:57 Speaker_02
But there's also the vast majority of them, especially in the, I would say, especially in the modern era and where the price of the presidency extracts everything that you have. You have to be willing to give everything.

02:18:10 Speaker_02
And it's just, that's not a price that most people wanna pay. Is it possible?

02:18:16 Speaker_00
that some of the people who you think are sociopaths in politics are in fact really good people. And some of the people you think are good, like Truman and Adams, are actually sociopaths.

02:18:27 Speaker_02
Definitely.

02:18:27 Speaker_00
I mean, I could just be reading the wrong books, right? Yeah, that's right. It sounds like you just read some really compelling biographies.

02:18:35 Speaker_02
Okay, to be fair, I don't base this on one book. I read a lot of them. For example, I've read books about LBJ. You wouldn't know any of his foibles.

02:18:44 Speaker_02
but then you find out that they're written by his friend, or it was written by, and then you read the truth.

02:18:49 Speaker_00
I really worry about this kind of general, especially now the sense of the anti-establishment sense that every politician must be a sociopath. Now, while, the reason I worry about that is it feels true. Yeah. So it's, you can fall into this, you know,

02:19:11 Speaker_00
bubble of beliefs where every politician is a sociopath, and because of that... It can be a self-reinforcing mechanism. Self-reinforcing mechanism.

02:19:18 Speaker_02
Yeah, I understand what you're saying.

02:19:20 Speaker_02
I agree, by the way, we do need to dramatically change it, but the problem is, is that, you know, people vote with their eyeballs and with their interests, and people love, like, to, you know, dissect people's personal lives.

02:19:31 Speaker_02
And one of the reasons why you were probably more likely in the pre-modern era to get a quote-unquote good people is they were not subject to the level of scrutiny and to the insanity of the process that you are currently.

02:19:42 Speaker_02
Like I just said about you, I mean, theoretically, you could run for president and you would just get your nomination at the convention It's only two months to election day, that's not so bad.

02:19:51 Speaker_02
But you know, you run for president today, you've got your ass on the road for two years, two years before that, and then you have to run the damn government. So the price is so extraordinarily high. I also think that

02:20:05 Speaker_02
Oh God, and just Washington as a system, it will burn you. It will just, it will extract absolutely everything that you can give it. And at the end of the day, you know, I mean, everyone always talks about this. It's hilarious.

02:20:18 Speaker_02
How Trump is the only president not to age in office. I think, I actually think it's crazy. Like when you look at the photos of how he actually looks better today than he did whenever he went into the office, that's amazing.

02:20:29 Speaker_02
And it actually says a lot about how his mind works. I think Trump is pure id.

02:20:34 Speaker_02
Like I think he's, having observed him a little bit, and you know, both at the White House and having interviewed him, it's pure just, like it's calculating, but it's also pure id, which is very interesting.

02:20:44 Speaker_02
The ones who are the thinkers, guys like Obama and others who are really in their heads, it's a nightmare. It's a nightmare. They will, I mean, apparently Obama would only sleep four hours a night, you know?

02:20:55 Speaker_00
Yeah, add like some empathy on top of that, and it's gonna destroy you.

02:20:58 Speaker_02
It will kill you, man.

02:21:00 Speaker_00
All right, speaking about the dirty game of politics, several people, different people, told me that of everyone they've ever met in politics, Nancy Pelosi is the best at attaining and wielding political power. Is there any truth to that?

02:21:15 Speaker_02
In the modern era? Yeah, I think that's fair. In the last 25 years? Definitely. Let's think about it. Number one is longevity. So she's had the ability to control the caucus for a long period of time, so that's impressive.

02:21:26 Speaker_02
Because as I just laid out with Clinton, Obama, these figures come and they go, but over a 25 almost year period, you've been at the very top and the center of American politics.

02:21:36 Speaker_02
The other case I would be is that in this modern era has been defined by access to money. She's one of the greatest fundraisers in Democratic Party history.

02:21:43 Speaker_02
And again, consistently, Obama, Kamala, all those people come and go, but she's always had a very central understanding of the ability to fundraise, to cultivate good relationships with Democratic Party elites all across the country, use that money and dole it out to her caucus.

02:21:59 Speaker_02
She's also was really good at making sure that legislation that came to the floor actually had the votes to do so.

02:22:06 Speaker_02
She ran an extremely well-ordered process in the House of Representatives, one in which you were able to reconcile problems within her office.

02:22:15 Speaker_02
It didn't usually go public, and then it would make it to the floor and it would pass so that there would be no general media frenzy and Democrats in disarray or any of that.

02:22:25 Speaker_02
Put that on display with the Republicans and we've had multiple speakers all resign or get fired in a 16 year period. That's pretty remarkable. Basically ever since John Boehner decided to leave in, what was it, 2012? I forget the exact year.

02:22:38 Speaker_02
My point is that if you compare her record to the longevity on the Republican side, it is astounding.

02:22:43 Speaker_02
The other interesting thing is that she also has pulled off one of the real tests of political power, is can you rule even when you don't have the title anymore?

02:22:52 Speaker_02
So she gave up the leader position to Hakeem Jeffries, but everybody knows she pulled Joe Biden out of the race. That's pretty interesting, right? So she's technically just a backbencher, nobody member of Congress, but we all know that's bullshit.

02:23:06 Speaker_02
So that's actually a very important case of political power, is can you rule without the title? And if you can, then you truly are powerful. So I would make a good case for her. Yeah, she's done a lot of remarkable stuff for her party.

02:23:20 Speaker_02
I will say, they played Trump like a fiddle, man. Last time around, they were able to. I mean, they really got him. One of the craziest elements that I covered was during the Trump

02:23:32 Speaker_02
basically threatened to shut down the government and actually did shut down the government for a period of time over a dispute over border wall funding.

02:23:38 Speaker_02
And Pelosi and Schumer, despite like genuine mass hysteria in the Democratic Party, with even some people who are willing to try and to strike a deal, never wavered and actually basically won and forced Trump to back down.

02:23:53 Speaker_02
Not a lot of MAGA people want to admit it, but that was honestly really embarrassing for the Trump administration at the time.

02:24:00 Speaker_02
And yeah, I mean, the amount of discipline that it took for her and for Chuck to a lesser extent, but for the two of them to pull that off, it was honestly impressive that they were able to do that.

02:24:10 Speaker_02
Even when the president has so much political power and it literally shut down the government over it.

02:24:15 Speaker_00
Speaking of fundraising, Kamala raised $1 billion. Insane. But I guess the conclusion is she spent it poorly. How would you spend it?

02:24:25 Speaker_02
I don't think money matters that much. I think Donald Trump has proven to us twice that you can win an underdog campaign through earned media, and I don't think that paid advertisement moves the needle that much.

02:24:39 Speaker_02
Now, don't notice I didn't say it doesn't matter, but am I buying $425,000 a day spots in the Vegas sphere? No, we're not doing that.

02:24:46 Speaker_02
Are we building... Okay, as people who do this for a living, how do you even spend $100,000 to build a set for one interview?

02:24:56 Speaker_00
This is the call her daddy?

02:24:56 Speaker_02
The call her daddy thing. Okay. How is that possible? So think about the dollar per hour cost. That's like running a jet airplane in terms of what they did.

02:25:04 Speaker_00
You know what I want to note behind the scenes? Yeah. I haven't got, and I'm not good with this. I get really frustrated and I shouldn't, but dealing with PR and comms people can sometimes break my soul.

02:25:16 Speaker_02
It's maddening. Can we not talk about this? And we need to pull them at 12 PM. And you're like, but that's only 30 minutes.

02:25:22 Speaker_00
Like, yeah, that, but there's stuff like where to put the camera. It's not that I don't, it's not, actually, hypothetically, I don't even disagree with any of the suggestions, but it's like- The micromanagement.

02:25:35 Speaker_00
Just the micromanagement and the politeness, but the fake politeness, and it just makes me feel like, I think like, what would Kubrick do? Would he murder all of them right now?

02:25:48 Speaker_02
He would just ban them after he became Stanley Kubrick, but he dealt with it for a while. By the way, I just went on a Kubrick binge. Man, he was awesome. I watched that World War I movie of his, the one from the 50s. That is such an underrated film.

02:26:03 Speaker_02
I feel like people don't... Whatever, we'll get past it.

02:26:08 Speaker_00
But she, yeah, I guess she paid for- A hundred grand, bro. And the Oprah thing.

02:26:14 Speaker_02
She paid for the interviews. So, you know, that's another one. I do this for a living. And as you can tell, I'm a very cynical person. I did not even know that celebrities got paid for their endorsements. I could never have imagined a universe

02:26:27 Speaker_02
where Oprah Winfrey has paid $1 million to endorse Kamala Harris. I'm like, first of all, you're a billionaire. Second, I thought you do this because you believe.

02:26:36 Speaker_00
No, I think to be fair, I think the million just helps do the thing you would like to do. It's a nudge, because I don't think any celebrity would endorse

02:26:46 Speaker_02
Yeah, they're not doing it because of the money, but you should just do it for free. I can't even believe that you're doing this for money. I mean, and the fact, what was it, Alanis Morissette?

02:26:56 Speaker_02
You know how they were able, they had to cut her because they didn't have the funds to pay her? I'm like, first of all, if you believe, you should just play for free.

02:27:03 Speaker_02
But second, again, as a person who is deeply cynical, I still am genuinely shook that we are paying celebrities for their endorsements.

02:27:11 Speaker_00
Yeah, it's really fucked up.

02:27:12 Speaker_02
That's insane.

02:27:13 Speaker_00
Why do you think people on the left who are actually in the political arena are afraid of doing anything longer than an hour?

02:27:21 Speaker_02
That's a great question.

02:27:22 Speaker_00
So let me just say, probably most of the people I've talked to on this podcast are left-wing or have been for a long time. They just don't sort of out and say it.

02:27:34 Speaker_00
Like most scientists are left-wing, most sort of vaguely political people are left-wing that I've talked to. But the closer you get to the actual political arena, and I've tried really hard, they just, nope,

02:27:51 Speaker_00
I had a bunch of people, the highest profile people, say 15 minutes, 20 minutes.

02:27:57 Speaker_02
I'm used to that, so welcome.

02:28:01 Speaker_00
I just can't imagine a conversation with Kamala or with Joe Biden. or AOC, or Obama, that's of any quality at all, that shows any kind of humanity of the person, the genius of the person, the interesting nuance of the person in like 30 minutes.

02:28:26 Speaker_00
I don't know, maybe there's people that are extremely skilled that can do that. You just can't.

02:28:33 Speaker_02
You should be optimistic because a huge narrative out of this election is that the Democrats massively fucked up by not coming on this show or a Rogan show. So I actually fundamentally, number one, that's going to change dramatically.

02:28:44 Speaker_02
So be optimistic and keep pushing. But two is, this is a good segue actually, is I've been thinking a lot about, I know a lot of people listen to this show who are in tech and may have some influence on the admin.

02:28:55 Speaker_02
So this is kind of, this is something I want people to take really seriously. is I was a White House correspondent for the Daily Caller. It's a conservative outlet in Washington during the Trump years.

02:29:06 Speaker_02
And the most important thing I learned from that was that under the White House Correspondents Association, the way that the media cartel has everything set up

02:29:17 Speaker_02
for access for press to the president is fundamentally broken, anti-American, and bad for actual democracy. So let me lay this out at a very mechanical level, because nobody knows this.

02:29:29 Speaker_02
And I was a former White House Correspondents Association member, so anybody who says I'm full of shit, I was there.

02:29:34 Speaker_02
For example, number one, all the seats in the briefing room, those seats are assigned by the White House Correspondents Association, not by the White House itself. The White House Correspondents Association requires you to apply for a seat, right?

02:29:46 Speaker_02
That adjudication process can take literally years for bylaws, elections, and all these things to do. This means that they can slow roll the entrance of new media. online outlets who are allowed into the room.

02:29:58 Speaker_02
The reason it really matters not having a seat is if you don't have a seat, you have to get there early and stand in the wings like I used to and raise your hand like this and just hope and pray that the press secretary can see it's extremely inconvenient.

02:30:09 Speaker_02
I'm talking, I have to get there hours early at a chance during a 15 minute briefing. So one of the things is that Trump has is he owes a huge part of his election to coming on podcasts and to new media.

02:30:21 Speaker_02
Now, because of that, it's really important that the White House Correspondents Association, which is a literal guild cartel that keeps people out of the White House and credentials itself and creates this opaque mechanism

02:30:35 Speaker_02
through which they control access to asking the press secretary questions is destroyed. And there are a lot of different ways you can do this because what nobody gets too is that all of these rules are unofficial.

02:30:48 Speaker_02
So for example, they're just traditions. The White House is like, yeah, it's our building, but you guys figure it out, right? Because that's a longstanding tradition. Let me give you another insane tradition that currently exists in the White House.

02:30:59 Speaker_02
The Associated Press, the press secretary or the Associated Press correspondent gets to start the briefing. Traditionally, they get the first question. They also get to end the briefing when they think it's been enough time. Like, okay, cringe up here.

02:31:12 Speaker_02
Thank you. Right. And that calls the briefing over. What? Who? You're not even the White House Correspondents Association. You literally just happen to work for the Associated Press. Why? Like, why do we allow that to happen? So number one, stop doing that.

02:31:26 Speaker_02
To their credit, the Trump people didn't really do that. But it's a long standing tradition.

02:31:29 Speaker_02
The other thing is that what nobody gets either is that the first row is all television networks, for logistical reasons, so that they can do their little stand-ups with their mic and say, you know, I'm reporting live from the West.

02:31:40 Speaker_02
Well, what people don't seem to know is that all the television networks are basically going to ask some version of the same question.

02:31:48 Speaker_02
The reason they do that is because they need a clip of their correspondent going after the White House press secretary all out Robert Mueller, like whenever I was there.

02:31:58 Speaker_02
So you get the same goddamn version of the stupid political questions over and over again. The briefing room is designed for traditional media, and they have all the access in the world.

02:32:09 Speaker_02
So in an election where you owe your victory to, at least in part, to new media and recognizing the changing landscape, you need to change the conduit of information to the American people.

02:32:21 Speaker_02
And in an election, I don't know if you saw this, but election night coverage on cable news was down 25%, just in four years, 25%. That's astounding. Cable news had a monopoly on election night for my entire lifetime.

02:32:36 Speaker_02
And yet my show had record ratings that night. And look, I'm a small slice of the puzzle here. We've got Candace Owens, Patrick McDavid, Tim Pool, David Pakman, TYT, all these other people.

02:32:47 Speaker_02
From what I understand, all of us blew it out that night because millions of Americans watched it on YouTube. We even partnered with some decision desk HQ. So we had live data. We could make state calls and we're just a silly little YouTube show.

02:33:00 Speaker_02
My point though, is that in an election where the vast majority of Americans are the age of 55, are listening to podcasts, consuming new media, and are not watching cable news, where the median age of CNN, which is the youngest viewership, is 68.

02:33:14 Speaker_02
68 is the median. So statistically, what does that tell us? There's a decent number of people who are watching CNN who are in their 80s and in their 90s, Yeah, I'm glad you brought up Alex because he deserves a tremendous shout out.

02:33:30 Speaker_02
Alex Brusewitz, he was the pioneer of the podcast strategy for the Donald J. Trump campaign. He got on your show. He was able to get on Andrew Schultz's show, Rogan. He was the internal force that pushed a lot of this.

02:33:44 Speaker_02
My personal hope is that somebody like Alex is elevated in the traditional White House bureaucracy.

02:33:50 Speaker_02
that the number of credentials that are issued to these mainstream media outlets is cut and there is a new lottery process put in place where people with large audiences are invited.

02:33:59 Speaker_02
And I also want to make a case here for why I think it's really important for people like you and others who don't have as much traditional media experience to come in and practice some capital J journalism.

02:34:11 Speaker_02
Cause it will sharpen you too, giving you access in that pressure cooker environment and having to, uh, to really like sit there and spar a little bit with a public official and not have as long necessarily as you're used to.

02:34:23 Speaker_02
It really hones your news media skills, your news gathering skills, and it will make you a better interviewer in the long run. Because a lot of the things that I've learned have just been through osmosis. I've just lived in DC. I've been so lucky.

02:34:36 Speaker_02
I've had a lot of cool jobs and I've just been able to experience a lot of this stuff.

02:34:40 Speaker_02
So I'm really hoping that people who are listening to this, who may have some influence or even the viewership, if you want to, you know, reach out to them and all them. This is a very easily changeable problem.

02:34:52 Speaker_02
It's a cartel which has no official power. It's all power by tradition, and it needs to be blown up. It does not serve America's interests to have 48 seats, I think, in the White House press briefing room to people who have audiences of like five.

02:35:06 Speaker_02
It's just makes absolutely zero workspace seats, access credentials, and also credentials that are issued to press and to other like new media journalists at major events should take precedence because it's not even about rewarding the creator.

02:35:24 Speaker_02
The American people are here. You need to meet them. That's your job. And I'll just end with a historical thing. Barack Obama shocked the White House press corps in 2009 because he took a question from the Huffington Post, a brand new blog.

02:35:39 Speaker_02
But they were stunned because he knew. He said, these blog people, they went all in for me and I got to reward them. So there's longstanding precedence of this. They'll bitch and they'll moan, they'll be upset. But

02:35:51 Speaker_02
It's their fault that they don't have as much credibility. And it's incumbent upon the White House, which serves the public, to actually meet them where they are. So I really hope that at least some of this is implemented inside of them.

02:36:03 Speaker_00
Yeah, if you break apart the cartel, I think you can actually enable greater journalism, frankly, with a capital J. Of course. Because actually, in the long form, is when you can do better journalism from even just the politician perspective.

02:36:18 Speaker_00
You can disagree, you can get criticized, because you can defend yourself.

02:36:22 Speaker_02
I had an idea, actually. Tell me what you think. I think a really cool format would be, there's a room right near the press briefing room called the Roosevelt Room. Beautiful room, by the way, it's awesome.

02:36:31 Speaker_02
Um, it has the medal of honor for Teddy Roosevelt and it has a portrait of him and a portrait of FDR. It's one of my favorite rooms in the White House. It's so cool.

02:36:38 Speaker_02
And so my idea would be in the Roosevelt room, which traditionally used for press briefings and stuff, uh, is like. You, as the press secretary, sit there. I think there's like 12 seats, something like that.

02:36:51 Speaker_02
And you set it all up and you have, let's say, Shure microphones like this. And that person, that secretary, is going to commit to being there for like two hours.

02:36:58 Speaker_02
And new media people can sit around the room, all of this being streamed live, by the way, just like the White House press briefing room. But the expectation is that the type of questions have to be substantive. Obviously, nothing is off limits.

02:37:10 Speaker_02
You should never, ever accept, I'm not going to ask about this. especially as a journalist, you can't do that. Every time they're like, hey, please don't ask about this. It's like, actually, that's probably the one thing you should ask about.

02:37:20 Speaker_02
But my point being that the expectation is, is that there's no interference on the White House side, but that the format itself will lend exactly to what you're saying to allow people to explain.

02:37:31 Speaker_02
And again, in a media era where we need to trust the consumer, like my show is routinely over two hours long.

02:37:39 Speaker_02
On cable television, on cable television, you know, the Tucker Carlson program, whenever it was on Fox News, without commercial breaks was about 42, 43 minutes, something like that of runtime.

02:37:50 Speaker_02
So I'm speaking for almost triple what that is on a regular basis. The point is, is that millions are willing to sit and to listen, but you just have to meet them where they are. So I would really hope that a format like that

02:38:04 Speaker_02
like a streamer briefing or something like that. I think, I think it's look, I know they would dunk on it endlessly, but I think it could work.

02:38:11 Speaker_00
Yeah, I think the incentives are different. I think it works because you don't have to, like you, Saga, don't have to signal to the other journalists that you're part of the clique.

02:38:21 Speaker_02
Oh, I'm so glad you brought that up because that was another lesson I learned. I go, oh, none of you are asking important questions for the people. You're asking questions because you all hang out with each other.

02:38:30 Speaker_02
And you're like, oh, wait, so this entire thing is a self-reinforcing guild to impress each other at cocktail parties and not to actually ask anything interesting. I remember people were so mad at me because this was 2018 or maybe 2017.

02:38:46 Speaker_02
And I said, do you think that Kim Jong-un is sincere in his willingness to meet with you? Something like that, to that effect. They were furious because I didn't ask about some bullshit political controversy that was happening at the time.

02:39:00 Speaker_02
So in the historical legacy, what was more important?

02:39:04 Speaker_02
the Mueller question or Donald Trump breaking 50 years or whatever of tradition with America's relationship with North Korea and meeting him in Singapore and basically resetting that relationship for all time. As you can tell, I read a lot of book.

02:39:18 Speaker_02
I like to take the long view. Every time I would ask a question, I go, okay, when the future Robert Caro is writing books and he sees, he's reading the transcript of the White House press briefing, he doesn't even know who this kid is.

02:39:31 Speaker_02
He goes, that was a pretty good question right there. That's pretty relevant. You gotta think about all the bullshit that gets left on the cutting room floor.

02:39:37 Speaker_00
I love that view of journalism, actually. The goal is to end up as one line in a history book 50 years from now.

02:39:45 Speaker_02
I just want a quote of what the president said to something that I asked in a book. I'd be happy. I would die happy with that. If you told me that when I'm like a 90-year-old man, I'd be like, man, that means I succeeded.

02:39:55 Speaker_00
When the AIs write the history of human civilization. One of the things I continuously learn from you when looking back through history is how crazy American politics has been throughout history. It makes me feel a lot better about the current day.

02:40:11 Speaker_00
It should. Corruption. Yes. Just the divisiveness also. Stealing elections at all levels of government and direct stealing and indirect stealing, all kinds of stuff.

02:40:27 Speaker_00
So is there stuff that jumps out to mind throughout history that's just like the craziest corruptions or stealing of elections that come to mind?

02:40:39 Speaker_02
I'll give the micro and the macro. So my favorite example is Robert Caro, who I've probably talked about him a lot. God bless you, Robert. I hope you live to write your last book because we really need that from you. But Robert came to Texas.

02:40:54 Speaker_02
He only intended on writing three books about Lyndon Johnson. He's currently completed four and he's on his fifth and it's taken him over 40 years to write those. And one of the reasons is he just kept uncovering so much stuff. And one of them,

02:41:07 Speaker_02
is Book Two, Means of Ascent. He never intended to write it, but as he began to investigate Lyndon Johnson's 1948 Senate election, he realizes in real time how rigged and stolen it was. And so I often tell people,

02:41:23 Speaker_02
What if I told you that we lived in the most secure election period in modern history? They wouldn't believe it. But if you read through that shit, I'm talking about bags of cash, millions of dollars, literal stuffed ballot boxes.

02:41:38 Speaker_02
It's great to be back here in Texas because I always think about that place like down in Zapata and Starr County. I'm talking like basically Mexico.

02:41:47 Speaker_02
Um, where these dons were in power in the 1940s and they would literally stuff the ballot boxes with the rolls and they wouldn't even allow people to come and vote. They just check marked it all for you based upon the amount that he paid.

02:42:00 Speaker_02
Means of assent is the painstaking detail of exactly how Lyndon Johnson stole the 1948 Senate election. And so nothing, nothing like that, as far as I know, is still happening.

02:42:11 Speaker_02
macro, we can talk about the 1876 election, Rutherford B. Hayes, one of the closest elections in modern history. It was one of those that got kicked with the House of Representatives. That was an insane, insane time.

02:42:24 Speaker_02
The corrupt bargain that was struck to basically end Reconstruction and federal occupation of the South, and of course, the amount of wheeling and dealing that happened inside of that was absolutely bonkers and nuts.

02:42:36 Speaker_02
That was what an actual stolen election looks like, just so people know. So on a micro and a macro, yeah, that's what it really looks like. And so, look, I understand where people are coming from. Also, let's do what, 1960? That was pretty wild.

02:42:49 Speaker_02
I mean, in 1960, There was all those allegations about Illinois going for Kennedy. Um, if you look at the actual vote totals of Kennedy, Nixon, wow. I mean, it's such an insanely close presidential election.

02:43:03 Speaker_02
And even though the electoral college victory looks a little bit differently, Nixon would openly talk about, he's like, Oh, old Joe Kennedy, uh, rigged Illinois for his boy.

02:43:12 Speaker_02
And he'd be like, and we didn't even have a chance in Texas with Linden pulling, you know, like Linden, Linden stuffing the ballot boxes down there. So, and this is open on the, like, they openly admit this stuff. They talk about it.

02:43:25 Speaker_02
So, uh, actually there's a funny story. Uh, LBJ lost is, uh, I think it's 1941. Senate primary, and it's because his opponent, Papio Daniel, actually outstole Lyndon. So they were both corrupt.

02:43:41 Speaker_02
But Papio Daniel stuffed the ballot box in like the fifth day of the seven days to count the votes. And FDR loved LBJ. And it's interesting, right, that FDR recognized Johnson's, his talent

02:43:55 Speaker_02
And he goes, Lyndon, you know, in New York, we sit on the ballot boxes till we count them, you know, because he's admitting that he, you know, you know, participated in a lot of this stuff.

02:44:05 Speaker_02
So this high level chicanery of stolen elections is actually an American pastime that we luckily have moved on from. And quite a lot of people do not know the exact intricate details of how wild it was back in the day.

02:44:20 Speaker_00
Yeah, it's actually one of the things, it's harder to pull off a bunch of bullshit with all these cameras everywhere now.

02:44:26 Speaker_02
Transparency too, lack of cash, banking regulations, there's a variety of reasons, but yeah.

02:44:30 Speaker_00
So that said, let's talk about the 2020 election. Seems like forever ago. Do you think it was rigged the way that Trump claimed? No. And was it rigged in other ways?

02:44:42 Speaker_02
Look, this is the problem with language like rigged. And by the way, when I interviewed Vivek Ramaswamy, he said the exact same thing. So for all the MAGA people who are going to get mad at me, Vivek agrees. All right. And if, okay.

02:44:57 Speaker_02
I have observed, and I'm going to put my analyst hat on, there are two theories of stop the steal. One I call low IQ stop the steal, and one I call high IQ stop the steal. Low IQ stop the steal is basically what Donald Trump has advocated.

02:45:11 Speaker_02
uh where you know dominion voting machines and bamboo ballots and venezuela and sydney powell and all the people involved basically got indicted by the state of georgia i'm not saying that that was correct i'm just like that's what that actually looked like rudy giuliani etc high iq

02:45:27 Speaker_02
stop the steal, is basically, and actually, I mean, these are not illegitimate arguments.

02:45:33 Speaker_02
The school of thought is it was illegitimate for the state of Pennsylvania and other swing states to change mail-in balloting laws as a response to COVID, which enabled millions of people more to vote that wouldn't have, and that those change in regulations became enough to swing the election.

02:45:51 Speaker_02
I actually think that that is true. Now, would you say that that's rigged? That's a very important question, because we're talking about a Republican state legislature, a Republican state Supreme Court, right?

02:46:01 Speaker_02
The two that actually ruled on this question. So could you say that it was rigged by the Democrats to do that?

02:46:06 Speaker_02
Another problem with that theory is that while you can say that that's unfair to change the rules last time around, you can also understand it to a certain extent. And I'm not justifying it, I'm just giving you an example.

02:46:17 Speaker_02
So for example, after the hurricane hit North Carolina, Republican officials were like, hey, we need to make sure that these people who in Western North Carolina who were affected by the hurricane could still be able to have access to the ballot box.

02:46:32 Speaker_02
And people were like, oh, so you're saying in an extraordinary circumstance that you should change voting, you know, access and regularity to make sure that people have access. So my point is, you can see the logic through which this happened.

02:46:43 Speaker_02
And the high IQ version is basically the one that was adopted by Josh Hawley whenever he voted against certification.

02:46:51 Speaker_02
He said that the state Pennsylvania, particularly election law, and that those changes were unfair and led to the quote unquote rigging of the election against Donald Trump. Now there's an even higher IQ, Galaxy Brain Stop the Steal.

02:47:05 Speaker_02
Galaxy Brain Stop the Steal is one that you saw, with great love and respect, my friend J.D. Vance, at his debate with Tim Walz. When Tim Walz asked him, what did he say? He said, did Donald Trump win the 2020 election?

02:47:18 Speaker_02
He's like, Tim, focus on the future. And then he started talking about censorship, the Hunter Biden laptop story. If you take a look at the Joe Rogan interview, Rogan actually asked J.D. this. He's like, what do you mean you're in the election?

02:47:31 Speaker_02
It was some version of that. And J.D.

02:47:33 Speaker_02
was like, well, what I get really frustrated by is people will bring up all these insane conspiracy theories, but they ignore that the media censored the Hunter Biden laptop story and that big tech had its finger on the thumb for the Democrats.

02:47:48 Speaker_02
Now that is empirically true, okay? That is true, right? Now, would you say that that's rigged? I'm not going to use that word because that's a very different word. Now, would you say that that's unfair? Yeah, I think it's unfair.

02:47:59 Speaker_02
So there's another, there's a lot of MAGA folks picked up on this one. There was a Time Magazine article in 2020 that's very famous in their crowd called, you know, it was like the fight to fortify the election.

02:48:11 Speaker_02
And it was about all of these institutions that put their fingers on the scale for Joe Biden against Donald Trump. I will put it this way.

02:48:20 Speaker_02
Was Donald Trump up against the titanic forces of billionaires, tech censorship, and elite institutions who all did absolute damnedest to defeat him in 2020? Yes, that is true.

02:48:35 Speaker_02
And in a sense, the galaxy brain case is the only one of those which I think is truly legitimate. And I'm not going to put it off the table. this is the problem, that's not what Trump means.

02:48:49 Speaker_02
Trump, by the way, will never tell you what I just told you, right? J.D. will.

02:48:55 Speaker_02
If you go and you ask any of these Republican politicians when they're challenged on it and they don't want to say that Trump lost the 2020 election, they'll give the galaxy brain case that I just gave.

02:49:06 Speaker_02
And again, I don't think it's wrong, but it's like, guys, that's not what he means when he says it. And that's the important parsing of the case, right?

02:49:14 Speaker_00
So first at a high level, Trump or otherwise, I don't like anyone who whines when they lose, period. Yeah. Although he did tell you he lost. You notice that?

02:49:21 Speaker_02
That's the only time he's ever said it, ever. You're famous. You're in history for that one.

02:49:25 Speaker_00
Lost by a whisker. Yeah.

02:49:27 Speaker_02
Lost by a whisker.

02:49:30 Speaker_00
I mean, there is a case to be made that he was joking, I don't know. But there is a kind of weaving that he does with humor, where sometimes it's sarcasm, sometimes not. Much easier to showcase in a three-hour interview, I'll say. Good call, go ahead.

02:49:45 Speaker_00
I couldn't even play with that when you have 40 minutes. I know, bro. You're like...

02:49:51 Speaker_02
it you know i could do just forty minutes on weaving a lot for your style it doesn't work and i can tell you how the way i interview politicians is i just do pure policy so when i the first time i interviewed trump i compiled a list of fifteen subjects me and my editor

02:50:06 Speaker_02
Vince Collonier, shout out to Vince. And the two of us sat in an office and then we had questions by priority in each category. And if we felt like we were running short on time, we would move around those different ones.

02:50:16 Speaker_02
But that was purely, he's the president, we're asking him for his opinions on an immigration bill or whatever. For what you do, it's impossible to do it.

02:50:23 Speaker_00
Yeah, I just want to say that thank you for everybody involved for making my conversation with Donald Trump possible. But I've learned a lot from that,

02:50:34 Speaker_00
I just, if I'm told that all I have is 40 minutes, I'm very politely sparing, in that case, Donald Trump, the 40 minutes and just walking away. Because I don't think I can do a good job.

02:50:46 Speaker_02
I think that is the correct decision on your part. And I also would encourage you to have the confidence at this point that you are in a position of something that we call in the business, the ability to compel the interview. And to compel means,

02:51:01 Speaker_02
to be able to bring somebody else to you and not the other way around. And I think that you and Rogan and a few others are in that very unique position.

02:51:09 Speaker_02
And I would really encourage you guys to stick to your guns on things that make you feel comfortable. Because those of us in news, we will always negotiate. We're willing to do short form because we're asking about policy.

02:51:21 Speaker_02
But for the style that you help popularize, and I think that you're uniquely talented and good at, that's very important not to compromise on.

02:51:28 Speaker_00
Thank you for saying those words and that's not just in the interest of journalism in the interest of conversation It's the interest of the guests as well.

02:51:34 Speaker_02
Yeah, absolutely bring out the best in them Yeah, I mean I would feel really at a disservice and I would feel like people would not get a unique understanding of like my own thought process and my backstory if I was not able to sit here for literally hours and to explain in detail

02:51:49 Speaker_02
deep detail, like how I think about the world. Not that anyone cares that much, but you know, it's just like, I hope, all I can do is I hope it's helpful. I want to help people think.

02:51:59 Speaker_02
Because when I was growing, I was growing up not far from here, 90 minutes from here, in College Station, I felt very uniquely closed off from the world. And I found the world through books. And books saved my life, they, many, so many different times.

02:52:14 Speaker_02
And I hope to encourage that in other people.

02:52:16 Speaker_02
I really, no matter where you are, no matter who you are, no matter how busy you are, you have some time to either sit down with a book or put on an audiobook and you can transport yourself into a different world.

02:52:28 Speaker_02
It's so important and that's something that your show really helps me with too. I love listening to your show whenever, sometimes when I'm too into politics and I need to listen to something, I'll listen to that Mayan historian guy.

02:52:37 Speaker_02
I love stuff like that, absolutely.

02:52:39 Speaker_00
I've been a deep dive on Genghis Khan, reading Genghis Khan and then making the modern world.

02:52:45 Speaker_02
Yeah, Jack Weatherford, fantastic.

02:52:46 Speaker_00
Yeah, he's coming on.

02:52:48 Speaker_02
Is he?

02:52:48 Speaker_00
Yeah. Amazing. And again, shout out to Dan Carlin.

02:52:52 Speaker_02
The GOAT, the OG. Dan, I've never met you before. I would love to correspond at some point. I love you so much. You changed my life, man.

02:52:59 Speaker_00
I met him once before and it felt- I listened to your interview with him. I was starstruck. Very, very starstruck. And he's just so much. Painful Attainment. I've listened to that many times.

02:53:09 Speaker_02
I think his best series, one of his best series, it gets no credit for, Ghosts of the Osferon. Nobody gives him credit for that one. That's OG, this is a 2011 series.

02:53:17 Speaker_02
But his Ghost of the Ostfront on the Eastern Front of the Nazi war against Russia fundamentally changed my view of warfare forever. And also, at that time I was very young. And to me, World War II was Saving Private Ryan. I wasn't as well-read as I am.

02:53:34 Speaker_02
now. And I was like, oh shit, this entire thing happened, which actually decided the Second World War. And I don't know anything about this. So shout out to Dan. God bless you, man.

02:53:44 Speaker_00
And his quote unquote short episodes, I think, on slavery in general throughout human history.

02:53:50 Speaker_02
That was an awesome episode. I actually bought a bunch of Hugh Thomas books because of that episode. I'd never really read about African slavery or the slave trade outside of the civil war context. So again, shout out to him for that one.

02:54:02 Speaker_02
That was an amazing episode. His Japan series too. I'm going to Japan in a few days. And I keep thinking of what he always talked about in his supernova in the East. The Japanese are like everyone else, but only more so. And God, I love that quote.

02:54:16 Speaker_00
Okay, he's great. And we ironically arrived at this tangent while talking about the 2020 election.

02:54:26 Speaker_02
That's why podcasting is fun.

02:54:27 Speaker_00
Because you said lost by a whisker.

02:54:29 Speaker_02
Yeah.

02:54:30 Speaker_00
And now we're dragging us screaming back to the topic. One of the things I was bothered by is Trump claiming that there's widespread, as you're saying, low IQ theory, the widespread voter fraud. And I saw no evidence of that that he provided.

02:54:52 Speaker_00
And all right, well, let's put that on the table. And then the other thing I was troubled by, and maybe you can comfort me in the context of history, how easily... the base ate that up.

02:55:06 Speaker_00
That they were able to believe the election was truly rigged based on no clear evidence that I saw. And they just love the story.

02:55:16 Speaker_00
And there is something compelling to the story that, you know, like this DNC type, like with Bernie, the establishment just, they're corrupt and they steal. the will of the people.

02:55:28 Speaker_00
And like the lack of desire from the base or from people to see any evidence of that, well, it's really troubled me.

02:55:38 Speaker_02
Yeah, I'm gonna give you one of the most depressing quotes, which is deeply true. Roger Ailes, who is a genius. Shout out to The Loudest Voice in the Room by Gabriel Sherman. That book changed my life too, because it really made me understand the media.

02:55:51 Speaker_02
People don't wanna be informed, they wanna feel informed. That is one of the most fundamental media insights of all time. Roger Ailes, a genius, a genius in his own right who, you know, he changed the world. He certainly did.

02:56:06 Speaker_02
He, you know, he's the one who kind of gets credit for one of the greatest debate lines of all time because he was an advisor to President Reagan.

02:56:14 Speaker_02
Whenever he broke in, he was like, Mr. President, people want to know if you're too damn old for this job or not. And he inspired that joke that Reagan made where he was like, I will not use age in this campaign.

02:56:25 Speaker_02
I will not hold my opponent's youth and inexperience against him. That was Ailes, man. He did the Nixon town halls. He did it all. He's a fucking genius. And I'm not advocating necessarily for the world he created for us, but he did it.

02:56:40 Speaker_02
And people should study him more. If you're interested in media in particular, that book is one of the most important books you'll ever read.

02:56:46 Speaker_00
Yeah, you know what, that quote just really connected with me because, you know, there's all this talk about truth. And I think what people wanna, they wanna feel like they're in possession of the truth. Correct.

02:57:00 Speaker_00
Not actually be in the possession of the truth.

02:57:03 Speaker_02
Yeah, I know. It's one of the, it hit me too. Actually, Russell Crowe does an amazing job of delivering that line in the Showtime miniseries. So if you have the chance, you should watch it. And look, this is the problem.

02:57:15 Speaker_02
Liberals will be like, yeah, see these idiot Republicans. I'm like, yeah, you guys have bought a lot of crazy, stupid shit too. Okay.

02:57:20 Speaker_02
And if actually, I would say liberal misinformation, quote unquote, is worse than Republican disinformation because it pervades the entire elite media like Russiagate or Cambridge Analytica or any of these other hoaxes that have been foisted on the American people.

02:57:35 Speaker_02
The people who listen to the Daily and from the New York Times are just as brainwashed, lack of informed, wanna feel informed as people who watch Fox News. So let me just say that out there. It's an equal opportunity cancer in the American.

02:57:50 Speaker_00
Actually, we started early on in the conversation talking about bubbles. What's your advice about how to figure out if you're in a bubble and how to get out of it?

02:58:02 Speaker_02
That's such a fantastic question. Unfortunately, I think it comes really naturally to someone like me because I'm the child of immigrants and I was raised in College Station, Texas. So I was always on the outside.

02:58:14 Speaker_02
And when you're on the outside, this isn't a sob story, it's a deeply useful skill, because when you're on the outside, you're forced to kind of observe. And you're like, oh.

02:58:23 Speaker_02
So, like, when I was raised, it was the Bible Belt, and people really, you know, people were hardcore evangelical Christians, and I could tell them, like, oh, they really believe this stuff, and, you know, they were, you know, always trying to proselytize.

02:58:36 Speaker_02
All of that. And then the other gift that my parents gave me is I got to travel the entire world. I probably visited 25, 30 countries by the time I was 18.

02:58:44 Speaker_02
And one of the things that that gave me was the ability to just put yourself in the brain of another person. So one of the reasons I'm really excited to go to Japan and I picked it as a spot for my honeymoon was because

02:58:58 Speaker_02
Japan is a first world developed country where the vast majority of them don't speak English. It's distinguishingly non-Western and they just do shit their own way. So they have a subway, but it's not the same as ours. They have restaurants.

02:59:12 Speaker_02
Things don't work the same way. They have, you know, I could go to a laundry list, their entire philosophy of life of the daily rhythm, even though it

02:59:21 Speaker_02
merges with service-based managerial capitalism, and they're fucking good at it too, they do it their own way. So exposure to other countries in the world gave me, and also just being an outsider myself, gave me a more detached view of the world.

02:59:36 Speaker_02
So if you don't have that, what I would encourage you is to flex that muscle. So go somewhere that makes you uncomfortable. This will be a very boomer take, but I hate the fact that you have 5G everywhere you go in the world.

02:59:49 Speaker_02
because some of the best experiences I've ever had in my life is walking around Warsaw, Poland, trying to find a bus station to get my ass to Lithuania with a printed out bus ticket. I have no idea where the street is.

03:00:01 Speaker_02
I'm in a country where not that many people speak English. We're pointing and gesturing, right? And I figured it out. And it was really easy. I got to meet a lot of cool Polish people. Same in Thailand.

03:00:11 Speaker_02
I've been in rural like Bumbuk, Thailand, Columbia, places where people speak zero English and your ability to gesture and use pigeon really connects you and gives you like the ability to get an exposure to others.

03:00:27 Speaker_02
And so I know this is a very like wanderlust like travel thing, but unironically, if you're raised in a bubble, pierce it. Like that's the answer is seek something out that makes you uncomfortable.

03:00:38 Speaker_02
So if you're raised rich, you need to go spend some time with poor people.

03:00:40 Speaker_00
And consider that they might actually understand the world better than you.

03:00:44 Speaker_02
Well, in some respects, so I think a lot of rich people have really screwed up personal lives. So if you're poor and you really value family, you say, oh, that's interesting.

03:00:52 Speaker_02
There seems to be a fundamental trade-off between extraordinary wealth and something that I value. But what can I take away from that person? Oh, put my money in index funds. Make sure that I am conscientious about my budgeting.

03:01:05 Speaker_02
It's common sense shit, right? Uh, vice versa, people who are very wealthy get so caught up in the rat race about their kids going to private school and all of this.

03:01:16 Speaker_02
And then, you know, they very rarely engage with, there's that famous study where they ask people on their deathbed, like what they valued in life. And every single one of them was like, I wish I'd spend more time with my children.

03:01:26 Speaker_02
I think about that every time that I am thinking about pursuing a new work endeavor or something that's going to have me spend significant time away from my wife.

03:01:34 Speaker_02
And I'm almost always these days, now that I've achieved a certain level of success, the answer is I'm not doing it unless she can come with me.

03:01:44 Speaker_00
One of the bubbles I'm really concerned about is San Francisco bubble. I visit there recently, because I have so many friends there that I respect deeply. So many brilliant people in San Francisco, the Silicon Valley.

03:01:59 Speaker_00
But there's just this, I don't even want to criticize it, but there's definitely a bubble.

03:02:05 Speaker_02
Yeah, I'm with you. I'm friends with some SV Silicon Valley people as well. I'm similarly struck by that every time I go.

03:02:15 Speaker_02
And honestly, I do admire them because they, what I respect the most amongst entrepreneurs, business and political thinkers is systems thinking. Nobody thinks systems better than people who are in tech because they deal with global shit. right?

03:02:28 Speaker_02
Not even just America, they have to think about the whole world, about the human being and his relationship to technology. And coding in some ways is an expression of the human mind and about how that person wants to achieve this thing.

03:02:40 Speaker_02
And hey, you mechanically can type that into a keyboard or even code something to code for you to be able to achieve that. That's a remarkable accomplishment. I do think those people and people like that too,

03:02:52 Speaker_02
who think very linearly through math, and they're the geniuses are the ones who can take their creativity and merge it with linear thinking.

03:03:00 Speaker_02
But I do think that that actually, those are the people who probably most need to get out of the bubble, check themselves a little bit. And look, it's really hard, you know, once you achieve a certain level of economic success,

03:03:14 Speaker_02
and others, like, what do most rich people do? They close themselves off from the world, right? That's the vast majority of the time. What do you do? Economy is annoying, flying. They fly first class. Living in a small house is annoying.

03:03:26 Speaker_02
They buy a bigger house. Dealing with a lot of these inconveniences of life is annoying. You pay a little bit more to make sure you don't have to do that.

03:03:32 Speaker_02
There's a deep insidious thing within that, each one of those individual choices, where the more and more removed that you get from that, the more in the bubble that you are. So you should actually seek out those experiences or create them

03:03:44 Speaker_02
in a concerted way.

03:03:47 Speaker_00
Speaking of bubbles, Sam Harris. Oh. He has continued to criticize me directly and indirectly, I think unfairly, but I love Sam. I deeply respect him. Everybody should listen to the Making Sense podcast. It always makes me think.

03:04:05 Speaker_00
It's definitely in the rotation for me.

03:04:07 Speaker_02
That's very admirable of you.

03:04:09 Speaker_00
I mean, he's, I think, one of the sharpest minds of our generation. And for a long time, I looked up to him. It was one of the weird moments for me to meet him, because you listen to somebody for such a long time.

03:04:23 Speaker_02
I feel that way with you. I'm serious.

03:04:26 Speaker_00
Yeah, it's a beautiful moment. I mean, same with Joe and stuff like this. Oh, absolutely.

03:04:32 Speaker_02
It is one of the most surreal moments of your life, to be able to meet somebody who you spend hours listening to. I actually think about that when people come up to me, because I'm like, oh, they're feeling what I felt, whenever I, yeah.

03:04:44 Speaker_00
And you have to like, you see it, you feel it, and you have to celebrate that, because there is an intimacy to it. I think it's real, that people really do form a real connection, a real friendship.

03:04:57 Speaker_00
It happens to be one way, but I think it actually can upgrade to a two-way pretty easily. It happens with me, like in a matter of like five minutes when I meet somebody at an airport or something like that.

03:05:07 Speaker_00
Anyway, Sam took a pretty strong position on Trump.

03:05:12 Speaker_02
And has for a long time.

03:05:14 Speaker_00
Yeah, he has been consistent and unwavering. So he thinks that Trump is a truly dangerous person for our democracy, for maybe for the world. Can you steel man his position?

03:05:30 Speaker_02
Well, see, I think a lot of this podcast has been steel manning it because Sam is a big character matters guy. Like he focuses a lot on Trump's personality. By the way, I'm like you. I've listened to Sam Harris for years.

03:05:42 Speaker_02
I bought his meditation app, so nobody's going to accuse me of being some Sam Harris hater. I listened to him for way before, long before even Donald Trump was elected. That's how far back I go. with the Sam Harris podcast.

03:05:54 Speaker_02
I have a lot of respect for the dude. I enjoy a lot of his older interviews. I do think after Trump, he did succumb a little bit, in my opinion, to the elite liberalism view, both of the impetus behind Donald Trump and why he was able to be successful.

03:06:10 Speaker_02
So in some ways, very denigrating to the Trump voter, but also a fundamental misunderstanding of the American presidency.

03:06:16 Speaker_02
Because, like I said, he really is the one who believes that that narcissism, that character, and all of that that makes Trump tick itself will eventually override any potential benefit that he could have in office.

03:06:27 Speaker_02
And I just think that's a really wrong way of looking at it. I mean, for example, I had this debate with Crystal, and this gets to the whole Trump talking about the enemy from within. And she was like, he wants to prosecute his political opponents.

03:06:42 Speaker_02
Do you disagree with that? And I was like, no, I don't. And she was like, so you're not worried about it? And I go, no. I'm not." And she's like, well, how do you square that?

03:06:50 Speaker_02
And I was like, well, I actually unironically believe in the American system of institutional checks and balances, which kept him quote unquote in check last time around. I also believe in democracy, where

03:07:03 Speaker_02
You know, this is really interesting, but, you know, in 2022, a lot of the Republicans who were the most vociferous about Stop the Steal, they got their asses kicked at the ballot box.

03:07:12 Speaker_02
You know, Americans also then, in 2024, decided to forgive some of that from Donald Trump. It definitely didn't help, right? But they were able to oversee that for their own interests.

03:07:23 Speaker_02
As in, democratically, people are able to weigh, in terms of checks and balances, what they should and should not challenge a politician by.

03:07:30 Speaker_02
But also, we have the American legal system, and I also know the way that the institutions in Washington themselves work, that, you know, fundamentally, the way that certain processes and other things could play out will not play out to some Hitlerian fantasy.

03:07:47 Speaker_02
And this gets to the whole, like, Kamala and them calling him a fascist and Hitler, you know, you and I probably spent hours of our lives, maybe more, thinking and reading about Adolf Hitler or Weimar Germany.

03:07:59 Speaker_02
And I just find it so insulting, you know, because it becomes this moniker of like, these terms have meaning beyond just the dictionary definition, the circumstances through which Hitler is able to rise to power are not the same as today.

03:08:17 Speaker_02
It's like, stop denigrating America to the point where you think Like really, you should flip it around. Why do you think America's a Weimar Germany? That's a ridiculous thing to say. Do you unironically believe that? No, you don't believe that.

03:08:30 Speaker_02
So that is personally what drives me a little bit crazy. And I think that Sam has found himself in a mental framework where he is not willing, he's not able to look past the man and his quote unquote danger.

03:08:46 Speaker_02
At the end of the day, his worldview was rejected wholly by the American people.

03:08:50 Speaker_02
And that, because the character argument, the fascist argument, the Hitler argument, the he is uniquely bad argument, has been run twice before, 2016 and in 2000, actually all three times. I guess it won in 2020.

03:09:03 Speaker_02
But two out of the three times, Donald Trump has won the presidency. And in his latest one, where that argument has never been made before for a longer period of time and more and strength by a political candidate was rejected completely.

03:09:15 Speaker_02
And I would ask him to reconcile himself to the America that he lives in.

03:09:19 Speaker_00
I think one thing, maybe to partially steel man his case, but also just to steel man the way the world works, is that there is some probability that Kamala Harris will institute a communist state.

03:09:36 Speaker_00
And there is some probability that Donald Trump will indeed, will fly a swastika with and deport, I don't know, everybody who's not Scott Irish. I don't know. You and I are screwed then. Maybe, is there a spirit test? Okay.

03:09:53 Speaker_00
But that probability is small and you have to, if you allow yourself to focus on a particular trajectory with a small probability, it can become all-encompassing. Because you could see it, you could see a path.

03:10:07 Speaker_00
There are certain character qualities to Trump where he wants to hold on to power. First of all, every politician wants to hold on to power.

03:10:15 Speaker_00
Joe Biden, maybe because he's part of the machine, can't even conceive of the notion of a third term, but he has the arrogance to want to hold onto power, do everything he can. Absolutely.

03:10:28 Speaker_00
And like with Trump, I could see that if it was very popular for him to have a third term, I think he would not be the kind of person who doesn't advocate for a third term.

03:10:39 Speaker_02
So what, that would require the Senate and the House or 70, what is it, 75% of the states to pass and change the constitution. Do you think that's gonna happen? No, I don't think it's gonna happen. So I'm not that worried about it.

03:10:52 Speaker_02
Now, you can make a norms argument. Actually, I think that's kind of fair, is that he's the norms buster. But, you know, with extraordinary candidates and people like Trump, you get the good and the bad. There is a true duality.

03:11:04 Speaker_02
Like the norms he busts around foreign policy, I love. The norms he busts around the economy, I love. The norms he busts around just so much of the American political system, saying it how it is, et cetera. I love that. You know what I hate?

03:11:18 Speaker_02
This 2020 election bullshit. You know what else I hate? You know, this, I don't know, just the lack of discipline that I would want to think that a great leader could have. Like when he was president and tweeting about Mika Brzezinski's facelift.

03:11:31 Speaker_02
That was objectively ridiculous. Like it was crazy, okay? Was it funny? Yeah, but it was crazy. Like, and it's not, how I would conceive and have conceived of some of my favorite presidents. I wouldn't think that they would do that.

03:11:43 Speaker_02
But that's what you get. Everyone should be clear-eyed about who this man is. And that's another problem. The deification of politicians is sick. It's sickening. Like about Trump, around Obama, around Hillary. These people are just people.

03:11:58 Speaker_02
The idea that they are godlike creatures with extraordinary judgment. One of the really cool things about you and I's job is we actually get to meet very important people.

03:12:07 Speaker_02
After you meet a few billionaires, you're like, yeah, there's definitely something there. But you know, some of them get lucky. Like, after you meet a few politicians, you're like, oh, they're like, they're not that smart.

03:12:17 Speaker_02
That was a rude awakening for me, by the way, being here in Texas reading about these people. And pretty soon, I was on Capitol Hill, I was like 19 years old, I was an intern, I'm actually interacting

03:12:26 Speaker_02
And I see them behave in ridiculous manners and, you know, whatever, treat people badly or say something stupid. And I was like, oh, this is not the West Wing. I'm like, this is not like these people are just this is reality.

03:12:38 Speaker_02
And the weirdest part of my life is I've now been in Washington long enough. I know some of the people personally, the vice president of the United States, literally the vice president elect.

03:12:49 Speaker_02
future cabinet secretaries, future, you know, these people I literally have met at dinner with, at a drink with, whatever, that's a wild thing. And that's even more bringing you down to earth.

03:12:59 Speaker_02
You're like, oh shit, you're actually gonna have a lot of power. That's pretty, that's kind of scary, but you're just a person.

03:13:04 Speaker_02
And so even though you don't have to say, I have my same life experience, take it from me or anybody else who's ever met really famous people, rich, successful, powerful people, they're just people.

03:13:15 Speaker_02
There's nothing that, there's some things that are unique about them, but Uh, they have just as many human qualities as you or anybody else is listening to this right now.

03:13:23 Speaker_00
Yeah. There's a, for each candidate, Trump is probably the extreme version of that. There's a, there's a distribution of the possible trajectories that administration might result in. Yes.

03:13:34 Speaker_00
And like, uh, the range of possible trajectories is just much wider with Trump.

03:13:38 Speaker_02
Yeah. you're describing like a Bayesian theory, right? I think that's actually a really useful framework for the world is that people are really too binary.

03:13:46 Speaker_02
So like you said, there's a theoretical possibility, I guess, of a communist takeover of government and of a fascist takeover of government under Kamala Harris or

03:13:56 Speaker_02
Donald Trump, their realistic probability, I would give it 0.05% probably in both directions. But there are a lot of things that can happen that are bad that are not Hitlerian or fascist.

03:14:08 Speaker_02
There are a lot of things that happen that are really good that are not FDR New Deal style. One of the worst things politicians do is they describe themselves in false historical ways. In Washington, one of the most overused phrases is, made history.

03:14:23 Speaker_02
And I'm like, you know, if you actually read history, most of these things are just, they're not even footnotes. They're the stuff that the historians flip past and they're like, what a stupid fucking thing.

03:14:35 Speaker_02
I mean, and I'm talking about things that will, that ruled American politics. Like, what if I told you that the Panama Canal Treaty was one of the most important fights in modern American politics? Nobody thinks about that today.

03:14:47 Speaker_02
It ruled American politics at that time. It genuinely is a footnote, but that's not how it felt at the time. So that's another thing I want people to take away.

03:14:56 Speaker_00
You tragically missed the UFO hearings. Oh man, my brothers, I'm really sad. My brothers.

03:15:04 Speaker_02
Let me tell you, I love them so much. The UFO community are some of the best people I've ever met in my life. Shout out to my brother, Jeremy Corbell,

03:15:14 Speaker_02
to George Knapp, the OG, to all of the people who fly from all around the world to come to these hearings. It was so fun. I got to meet so many of them last time, just walk the rope line like as people were coming in.

03:15:25 Speaker_02
The excitement, I truly love the UFO community. Shout out to all of them.

03:15:32 Speaker_00
This is the second one, I guess. This is the second one. Do you hope they continue happening?

03:15:36 Speaker_02
It's gonna be a slow burn. So one of the things I always tell the guys and everybody is, consider how long it took to understand the sheer insanity of the CIA in the 1950s and 60s.

03:15:49 Speaker_02
So if we think back to the church committee, I forget the exact year of the church committee, I think it was in the 70s, the entire church committee and knowledge of how the CIA and the FBI were up to all of this insane shit throughout the 50s and 60s

03:16:05 Speaker_02
is because some people broke into a warehouse, discovered some documents, got the names of programs, which were able to be FOIAed, and we were able to break open that case.

03:16:14 Speaker_02
It would never have happened with real transparency, like in the official process. So we owe those people a great debt, I guess I could say, now the statute of limitations has passed. My point about the UFOs is I don't know what is real or not.

03:16:28 Speaker_02
I have absolute confidence an absolute ton is being hid from the American people and that all of the official explanations are bullshit.

03:16:35 Speaker_02
I have had the opportunity to interface with some of the whistleblowers and other activists in the community, people who I trust, people who have great credentials, who have no reason to lie, who have assured us that there is a lot going on behind the scenes.

03:16:49 Speaker_02
There has been too much misinformation and effort by the deep state to cover up this topic. So I would ask people to keep the faith. It's 2024 and we still don't have all the JFK files, okay? Everyone involved is dead. There's no reason to let it go.

03:17:04 Speaker_02
And even though we basically know what happened, we don't know. If you read that fantastic book, the Tom O'Neill book about the Manson murders, I mean, again, you know, it took him 20 years to write that book and he still didn't get the full story.

03:17:16 Speaker_02
So sometimes it takes an extraordinarily long, agonizing period of time, and I know how deeply frustrating that is.

03:17:24 Speaker_02
But when you think about a secret, a program, and knowledge of this magnitude, it would only make sense that it would require a titanic effort to reveal a titanic secret.

03:17:35 Speaker_00
You think Trump might be able to push further, like aggressively break through the secrecy, let's say even on the JFK files?

03:17:43 Speaker_02
I hope so. I have moderate confidence, you know, RFK Jr. has pushed him to do so, I would like to think so. At the same time, his arm got rolled last time, so I'm, you know, I'll hold my breath. Why do you think that happens?

03:17:55 Speaker_02
Why do you think it gets- Remember that whole interagency thing I told you about? That's how it happens. That's another thing, you're presuming that the president has the power to declassify this stuff.

03:18:03 Speaker_00
I'm saying that I'm not even sure we're there, like in terms of- So it's basically like civility, he basically says like, I would like to declassify JFK files." And they say, yes, sir, we'll get that to you in three months.

03:18:14 Speaker_00
And three months comes by and then they're like, well, there's these hurdles.

03:18:19 Speaker_02
Well, the way you get around it is go, let's release some, but these in particular, there's national security secrets is a good case for not releasing them X, Y, and Z. you get around that. Oh, okay. That makes sense. And again, he's a busy guy.

03:18:30 Speaker_02
He's the president. He's got way bigger shit to worry about. So that's the problem, is that unless you have that true urgency... I mean, look, people of immense power have tried. Everyone forgets this. John Podesta was the White House chief of staff.

03:18:42 Speaker_02
He is a UFO true believer in his heart. He tried. He's talked about it. He tried at the top level, the number two to the White House, to get the Pentagon and others to tell him what was going on, and they stonewalled him.

03:18:54 Speaker_02
So people need to understand what you're up against. And people are like, how is that even possible? It's like, well, go read about the terror that LBJ and the Kennedys and others had in confronting J. Edgar Hoover.

03:19:08 Speaker_02
Go and read how terrified Eisenhower and some of them were of the Dulles brothers. They were scared. They knew where the power lies.

03:19:17 Speaker_02
So the presidency, look, government, deep state, et cetera, they've been there a long time and they know what's happening. And presidents come and go, but they stay forever. And so that's the paradigm that you're gonna have to fight against.

03:19:34 Speaker_00
Yeah, I mean, it's a bit of a meme, but I wonder how deep the deep state is.

03:19:41 Speaker_02
Much deeper than anyone can even imagine. And the worst part is, with the deep state, is it's not even individuals, it's actually an ideology.

03:19:48 Speaker_02
And ideology is the most, you know, people often think that if we took money out of politics, that it would change everything. I'm not saying it wouldn't change everything, but it wouldn't change a lot.

03:19:58 Speaker_02
People are like, oh, so-and-so is only against universal health care because they're getting paid. I'm like, no, no, no, that's not why. They actually believe it.

03:20:04 Speaker_02
Or it's like, oh, so-and-so is only wants to advocate for war with Iran because they're on the payroll of AIPAC. And it's like, well, yeah, the AIPAC trips and the money helps, but they think that.

03:20:14 Speaker_02
Actually, the system itself, this is a very Chomsky-esque systemic critique, is that Any journalist worth their salt would never have the ability to get hired in a mainstream. So he's like, it's not that you're bad in the mainstream media.

03:20:27 Speaker_02
It's that anyone good is not allowed to be elevated to your position because they have an ideology. And so, you know, that is the most self-reinforcing, pernicious mechanism of them all. And that's really Washington in a nutshell.

03:20:41 Speaker_00
It's again, a bubble, but a bubble that has a lot of power. Yes. Who do you think is the future of the Republican Party after Trump? What happens to Trumpism after Trump?

03:20:53 Speaker_02
Like you just said, Bayesian, let's take various theories, right? So let's say it's 04, it's Bush-Cheney. In 2004, the day after the election, I would have told you this. We live in a Bible Belt, Jesus Land America. This America wants to protect America.

03:21:09 Speaker_02
A war on terror against Iraq. Um, and, uh, the axis of evil and American people just voted for George W. Bush. And so I would have predicted that it would have been somebody in that vein. And they tried that his name was John McCain.

03:21:23 Speaker_02
He got blown the fuck out by Barack Obama. So I cannot sit here and confidently say.

03:21:27 Speaker_00
What year would you be able to predict Obama? It was just his first time he gave the speech.

03:21:31 Speaker_02
The 2004 speech at the DNC. That was his, we don't live in a black America, white America, the John Kerry DNC speech. You honestly could not have predicted it until 07, whenever he actually announced his campaign and activated a lot of anti-war energy.

03:21:45 Speaker_02
I mean, maybe 06, actually, I could have said. In 06, if I was, you know, kind of the contrarian man now, I'm like, yeah, there's a lot of anti-war energy.

03:21:53 Speaker_02
I think the next president will be somebody who's able to vote, you know, the explosion of Keith Olbermann and MSNBC that it makes logical sense in hindsight.

03:22:01 Speaker_02
But, you know, at the same time, you're going up against the Clinton machine who's never lost an election. So I would have been afraid.

03:22:09 Speaker_02
I cannot confidently say, so I will say if things go in different directions, if Trump is a net positive president, then I think it will be J.D.

03:22:16 Speaker_02
Vance, his vice president, who believes in a lot of the things that I've talked about here today, about foreign policy restraint, about the working class, about changing Republican attitudes to the economy.

03:22:29 Speaker_02
Um, and he would be able to build upon that legacy in the way that George W. H. W. Bush was able to get elected off the back of Reagan. But H. W. Bush was fundamentally his own man. He's a very misunderstood figure, very different than Ronald Reagan.

03:22:41 Speaker_02
Uh, didn't end up working out for him, but you know, he did get himself elected once. So that's one path. That's if you have a net positive Trump presidency. The other path is the O4 path that I just laid out.

03:22:52 Speaker_02
Uh, if George W. Bush, if Trump does what Bush does, misinterprets his mandate, screws things up, creates chaos, um, and makes it just generally annoying to live in American society, then you will see somebody in the Republican Party, I mean, still, it could even be J.D.

03:23:09 Speaker_02
Vance, because he could say, J.D. is my natural and my chosen successor, but then he would lose an election, and then he would no longer be the so-called leader of the Republican Party. I could see it swing in the other direction.

03:23:22 Speaker_02
I could see, you know, Republicans or others, let's say if it's a total disaster and we get down to like 20% approval ratings and the economy is bad and stuff like that.

03:23:32 Speaker_02
Glenn Youngkit or somebody like that who's very diametrically opposed to Donald Trump, or at least, you know, aesthetically, is somebody like that who could rise from the ashes. And I'm just saying like in terms of his aesthetic, not him per se.

03:23:46 Speaker_02
So there's a variety of different directions. It's a big question about the Republican base. I mean, a shit ton of people voted Republican now for the first time ever. So are they going to vote in party primaries? I don't know.

03:23:58 Speaker_02
You know, the traditional party primary voter is like a white boomer who's like 58, 59, is the Latino guy in California who turned out to vote for Trump with a MAGA hat and rolling around, you know, suburban Los Angeles with that.

03:24:12 Speaker_02
Is he going to vote in the Republican party? That could change. So the type of candidate themselves could come. So this just, it's way too early to say, you know, we have so many variety of paths that we go down.

03:24:22 Speaker_00
Yeah, I think Trump is a singular figure in terms of like if you support Trump, I just, there's a vibe. I know Kamala has a vibe, but there's definitely a vibe to Trump and MAGA. And I just, I think even with JD, that's no longer going to be there.

03:24:45 Speaker_00
So if JD runs and wins, that would be on principles. And he's a very different human being.

03:24:51 Speaker_02
He is so different than Trump, right? You can see his empathy, right? Remember in the VP debate, when he was like, Christ have mercy, when Tim Wallace was talking about his son. I mean, that's not something Donald Trump would say.

03:25:00 Speaker_02
Okay, it's just not like, uh, in terms of, I mean, you know, and this, by the way, this is my own bubble test. I have no idea how somebody listens to Trump and JD Vance is like Trump is the guy who should be the president over him.

03:25:12 Speaker_02
I honestly, I don't get it. That's my own cards on the table. I am in too much of a bubble where I'm, my bias is to, you know,

03:25:22 Speaker_02
Being well-spoken and being empathetic or at least being able to play empathetic and being extremely well read about the world and thoughtful and somebody who's, you know, somebody like him who's engaged in the political process but also has been able to retain his values and be extremely well articulate his worldview.

03:25:38 Speaker_02
That's my bias. That's who I would want to be the president. But, you know, that's a big country. People think differently.

03:25:44 Speaker_00
By the way, I share your bias. And I sometimes try to take myself out of that bubble, like maybe it's not important to have read a book or multiples of books on history.

03:25:55 Speaker_02
I'm not saying everybody should be like me, but that's my point. I'm checking myself by being like, because of who I am, that's how I see the world. And that's how I would choose a leader. But That is not how people vote, period.

03:26:07 Speaker_02
Nothing has taught me that more than this election.

03:26:10 Speaker_00
I wish they did. I mean, I don't know if that's a lesson to take away. Yeah, but who are we to say?

03:26:14 Speaker_02
People are allowed to do what they want. I'm not going to tell somebody how to vote.

03:26:17 Speaker_00
No, what I'm saying is you take everything Trump Everything Trump is doing, everything, the whole, the dance, all of it. And add occasional saga-like references to history books. I think that's just a better candidate.

03:26:33 Speaker_02
I agree with you. I mean, listen, you know, it's my bias.

03:26:36 Speaker_00
Yeah, I don't know. I don't think that's bias.

03:26:38 Speaker_02
I think I think that's not a bubble thinking I think it's amazing to me right like listen to the JD interview with Rogan I mean JD. I mean he'll drop obscure references to studies to like papers that have come out essays and

03:26:55 Speaker_02
books, like this is a very well read, high IQ, well thought out individual who also, you know, has given his life to the political process and decided to like deal with all the bullshit that this entire system is going to throw at you whenever you start to engage.

03:27:13 Speaker_02
That's who I would want to be president, but you know, I'm biased. So what can I say?

03:27:16 Speaker_00
I like how you keep saying you're biased as if there's some percent of the population doesn't like people to read at all. Okay. What about the future? You kind of hinted at it, the future of the Democratic Party.

03:27:28 Speaker_00
Do you see any talent out there that's promising? Is it going to be Obama-like figure that just rolls out of nowhere?

03:27:33 Speaker_02
Clinton is the better example because the Democratic Party was destroyed for 12 years. from 1980, the 1980 election to 1992. They're 12 years out of power.

03:27:44 Speaker_02
In periods of that long of an era, it takes somebody literally brand new who is not tainted by the previous to convince the base that you can won and convince the country that you're going in a new direction.

03:27:56 Speaker_02
So I would not put my money on anybody tainted by the Great Awakening, by TDS, by the insanity of the Trump era. It has to be somebody post that and or somebody who is able to reform themselves.

03:28:09 Speaker_02
It will, in my opinion, it will likely not be any establishment politician of today who will emerge for the future. Like I said, my dark horse is Dean.

03:28:20 Speaker_02
I think that the Democratic base is going to give Dean a shit ton of credit, and they should, for him being out. Look, let's be honest. He's a no-name congressman from Minnesota. Nobody cared who Dean Phillips was.

03:28:31 Speaker_02
But just like Obama, he had courage and he came out and spoke early when it mattered. And by doing that, he showed good judgment and he showed that he's willing to take risks.

03:28:40 Speaker_02
So I would hope in America's political system that we award something like that.

03:28:44 Speaker_02
And I do think the Democrats will reward him, but I'm not saying it will be him per se, but it will be a figure like that who is not nationally known, who has read the tea leaves correctly, who took guesses and did things differently than everybody else.

03:28:58 Speaker_02
And, uh, Most of all, I'm hoping that heterodox attitudes, ideas, behaviors, by definition after a blowout, those will likely be the ones that are rewarded. So I cannot give a name, but I can just describe the circumstances for what it will look like.

03:29:11 Speaker_00
Can you imagine an amorphous figure that's a progressive populist?

03:29:16 Speaker_02
It would be very difficult at this point, just because a huge portion of the multiracial working class has shifted to the right. But I could see it. I mean, look, people change their minds all the time.

03:29:28 Speaker_02
Like, there are people out there who voted for Barack Obama who've now voted for Donald Trump three times. So, you know, a lot can change in this country.

03:29:36 Speaker_02
If you make a credible case, you've got a track record, you speak authentically, and you can try to divide the country along class lines and be authentic and real about it, maybe. I think you have a shot.

03:29:48 Speaker_02
I still think you're probably going to get dinged on culture, just because I think this election has really showed us how important immigration and culture is. But, you know, actually,

03:29:57 Speaker_02
what the left populace should pray for, and they won't admit this, is that Trump actually solves immigration, like in terms of changing the status quo. You know how in a way that the Supreme Court just ended the conversation around gay marriage.

03:30:10 Speaker_02
So Republicans were like, yeah, whatever, we support gay marriage. Because like, that's the law of the land. It is what it is. They should just hope that their unpopular issue is resolved by the president.

03:30:20 Speaker_02
And thus, they just don't have to talk about it anymore. And now the battleground is actually favorable for them. They get to talk about the economy and abortion.

03:30:27 Speaker_02
So their most their least popular issue gets solved by the president by consensus from his mandate, and then they can run on a brand new platform for the new issues that are facing America.

03:30:38 Speaker_00
All right, let's put our historian hat back on. Will the American empire collapse one day, and if it does, when it does, what will be the reason? Statistically, likely.

03:30:51 Speaker_02
Statistically, yes. It's the famous Fight Club quote, it's like on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everything drops to zero.

03:31:02 Speaker_00
I like for all the books you've quoted, you went to Fight Club. I guess the movie, right? The book is good, though. People should read that, too.

03:31:09 Speaker_02
In terms of why, again, statistically, the answer is quite simple. It usually comes back to a series of unpopular wars which are pursued because of the elite's interests. Then it usually leads to a miscalculation and

03:31:29 Speaker_02
not a catastrophic defeat normally, it comes gradually. And most of the times when these things end, the crazy part is most people who are living through end of empire have no idea that they're living through the end of the empire.

03:31:42 Speaker_02
And I actually think about that a lot from, you know, decline and fall of the Roman empire by Edward Gibbon. Actually, your episode on Rome was fantastic. People should go listen to that. So there you go.

03:31:52 Speaker_02
Another really good one, I like to think a lot about the British empire. and what eventually led to that collapse, and nobody in 1919 said the British Empire has just collapsed. Basically nobody thought that.

03:32:05 Speaker_02
They were like, yeah, the First World War is horrible, but actually we came out of this okay, we still have India, we still have all these African colonies and all that.

03:32:12 Speaker_02
But, you know, long periods of servitude, of debt to the United States, of degradation, of social upheaval, of Bolshevism, of American industrial might.

03:32:23 Speaker_02
And next thing you know, you find yourself at Potsdam and Churchill's like, holy shit, I have barely any power in this room, right? So revolutions happen slowly and then all at once.

03:32:34 Speaker_02
Um, and so could you really put a, you know, a, a real like pain in the end of the British empire took almost 40 years for, for it to end. So. America's empire will eventually end either from rising geopolitical competition.

03:32:48 Speaker_02
Likely China could be India. Nobody knows. It will likely be because of being overstretched, an elite capture is usually the reason why, and a misreading of what made your original society work in the first place.

03:33:06 Speaker_02
And that is one where, honestly, all three of those things will happen all at once, and it will happen over an extremely long period of time. It's very difficult to predict. I would not bet against America right now.

03:33:17 Speaker_02
I think we have a lot of fundamental strengths. It's such a unique and dynamic country. It really is fucking crazy. Every time I travel the world, as much as I love all these different places, I go, man, I just, I love the United States so much.

03:33:29 Speaker_02
You will love it more when you leave. I really believe that, so.

03:33:32 Speaker_00
Yeah, and it's nice to remember how quickly the public opinion shifts. Like we're very dynamic and adaptable.

03:33:40 Speaker_00
which, and it annoys me, I understand that's part of the political discourse saying like, if Trump wins, it's the end of America, if Kamala wins, it's the end of America. So stupid, yeah.

03:33:49 Speaker_00
But I understand that the radical nature of that discourse is necessary to, like we mentioned... Yeah, to drive out votes. To drive up votes.

03:33:57 Speaker_02
I like to think about Americans in 1866. I cannot imagine going through a war where some X percent, I think it was like two or three percent or whatever, the entire population was just killed.

03:34:06 Speaker_02
Our president, who was this visionary genius who we're blessed to have, is assassinated at Forks Theater immediately after the surrender of Lee. Andrew Johnson, who's a bumbling, like, fucktard, is the one who is in charge.

03:34:20 Speaker_02
And, you know, we're having all these insane crises over, like, internal management while we're also trying to decide, like, this new order in the South and whether to bring these people—how to bring these people back into the Union.

03:34:32 Speaker_02
I mean, I would have despaired. I'm like, it's over. This is it. You know, the war, I'm like, was it worth anything?

03:34:39 Speaker_02
You know, if Andrew Johnson is going to be doing this or even in the South, I mean, I can't even imagine for what they were going through too.

03:34:46 Speaker_02
You know, they have to go home and their entire cities are burned to the ground and they're trying to readjust and, you know, their entire economy and way of life is overthrown in five years. I mean, that's an insane time to be alive.

03:34:57 Speaker_02
And what do we know? It worked out, you know. By 1890s or so, there were people shaking hands, you know, union. There's a cool video on YouTube actually of FDR who is addressing some of the last Gettysburg veterans.

03:35:13 Speaker_02
I think it was like the 75th anniversary or whatever. And you can literally see these old men shaking hands across the stone wall. It gives me hope, yeah.

03:35:22 Speaker_00
Let's linger on that hope. What is the source of optimism you have for the 21st century, century beyond that for human civilization in general. It's easy to learn cynical lessons from history, right? That shit eventually goes wrong.

03:35:42 Speaker_00
But sometimes it doesn't. So what gives you hope?

03:35:49 Speaker_02
the fundamentals of what makes humanity great and has for a long time are best expressed in the American character.

03:35:57 Speaker_02
And that despite all of our problems, that as a country with our ethos, a lot of stuff we talked about today, individualism, the frontier mindset, the blessings of geography,

03:36:08 Speaker_02
the blessings of our economy, of the way that we're able to just incorporate different cultures and the best of each and put them all together, give us the best opportunity to succeed and to accomplish awesome things.

03:36:21 Speaker_02
We're the country that put a man on the moon, which is the epitome of human spirit. I hope to see more of that. And, uh, you know, I think last time I was here, I shouted out and I love Antarctic exploration.

03:36:32 Speaker_02
I've read basically every book that there is on the exploration of Antarctica. And one of the reasons I love to do so is because there is no reason to care about Antarctica. None. There's nothing down there. Zero.

03:36:43 Speaker_02
Going to the South pole is a truly useless exercise. And yet we went. We went twice, actually. Two people went there in the span of five weeks and they competed to do so.

03:36:55 Speaker_02
And the spirit that propelled Amundsen and Scott's expedition and people like Shackleton, who's like, if you were to ask me my hero of all heroes, it's Ernest Shackleton. is because his spirit, I think, lives on in the United States.

03:37:10 Speaker_02
It unfortunately died in Great Britain. And interestingly enough, the Brits even understand that. They're like, it's very interesting how popular Shackleton is in America.

03:37:19 Speaker_02
And even though he was Irish and he was a British subject, to me, he's a spiritual American. And I think that his spirit lives on within us. and has always been here to a certain extent. And everywhere else, I think it's dying. But here, I love it here.

03:37:36 Speaker_02
There's so many cool things about America. People move around all the time, they buy new houses, they start families. There's no other place you can just reset your whole life. In the same country, it's wild.

03:37:44 Speaker_02
You can reinvent yourself, you can go broke, you can get rich, you can go back and forth. multiple times and there's nobody there and there's nowhere else where you have enough freedom and opportunity to pursue that.

03:37:55 Speaker_02
And we definitely have a lot of problems, but I've traveled enough of the world now to know that it's a special place. And that gives me a lot of hope.

03:38:03 Speaker_00
I wish I could do a Bostonian accent of, we do these things, not because they're easy, but because they're hard. Because they are hard. Thank you. Yeah. That's so true. The Scott Irish got us. Well, listen, I'm a huge fan of your saga.

03:38:20 Speaker_00
I hope to see you in the White House interviewing the president. There you go.

03:38:24 Speaker_02
That's the only situation you're gonna see me in the White House.

03:38:29 Speaker_00
Front row and just talking free. I would love to live in a country and in a world where it's you who gets to talk to the press secretary, to the president.

03:38:44 Speaker_00
because I think you're a real, you're one of the good ones as far as journalists go, as far as human beings. So I hope to see you in there. And I hope you get to ask a question that- That ends up in a book. That ends up in a good history book.

03:38:58 Speaker_02
Absolutely. Well, likewise, I'm a huge fan of yours. For anybody out there who's interested, I compiled a list and I will go and retroactively edit it. Just go to sagaandjetty.io.

03:39:09 Speaker_02
I created a newsletter with a website that has all the links to all the books I'm gonna talk about here.

03:39:13 Speaker_00
Beautiful, the hundreds of books that were mentioned here. All right, brother, thank you so much for talking to me.

03:39:17 Speaker_02
Thank you.

03:39:19 Speaker_00
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Sagar and Jetty. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Voltaire. History is the study of all the world's crime.

03:39:34 Speaker_01
Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.