#2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya AI transcript and summary - episode of podcast The Joe Rogan Experience

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Episode: #2206 - Chamath Palihapitiya

Author: Joe Rogan
Duration: 02:54:04

Episode Shownotes

Chamath Palihapitiya is a venture capitalist, engineer, and CEO of Social Capital.

https://chamath.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Full Transcript

00:00:02 Speaker_05
It is the best clip because he's like a totally different person well, it's what he really is, but he really is yeah, it's like the Ellen thing, you know, it's like I mean, he really did lose his shit there.

00:00:28 Speaker_05
Oh, it was like, weirdly, you know, was it like, I got the Christian Bale one, because like he's in characters, intense scenes, some guys fucking around in the background, like, God damn it, stop fucking around. I get that. Yeah, yeah.

00:00:40 Speaker_05
Like he's in this, he's in this frenzy of this intense scene. But what is Bill doing? Republican talking points on Fox News? No, that was before.

00:00:53 Speaker_02
It was when he was doing Current Affair. It's when he's doing gossip and stuff.

00:00:57 Speaker_05
Oh, that's right. He was a gossip guy. He was like an Entertainment Tonight type guy. Inside Edition. One of those deals. Inside Edition. Is that what it was? That's what it's called. Yeah, and fucking those things they never go away.

00:01:10 Speaker_05
It's um It's so such a weird environment the the left and right there's no like centrist news source on television There's no like this is probably what's going on news source.

00:01:23 Speaker_05
It's always one or the other and it's like you're living in a bipolar person's brain, you know, I think like

00:01:31 Speaker_02
Part of what's happened is we used to have news, and you could make a good living in news, and journalists were really sort of the top of the social hierarchy in some way, shape, or form, because they were this check and balance.

00:01:46 Speaker_02
And then somewhere along the way, this business model focused people on clicks, and nobody told the rest of the world that the underlying incentives were gonna change. And so that's where you find yourself, where, There's very little news, I think.

00:02:02 Speaker_02
There's a lot of opinion. And then the problem with opinion is that feeds the outrage machine, and that's the click-o-meter. The click-o-meter doesn't go high when you're like, hey guys, I studied this equation, and it showed.

00:02:17 Speaker_02
There's a 50% chance of this 50%. Nobody cares about that. It's either like, it's totally, totally bad, or it's totally, totally good, because it just, it amps people up. And that's a real bummer, because I think you don't know what to think anymore.

00:02:32 Speaker_05
Well, it's also a completely novel new thing that we weren't prepared for. So before there was social media and online news, no one was prepared for the world of the algorithm. No one was prepared for being like,

00:02:50 Speaker_05
literally everything that freaks you out is what you'll be shown because that shows that you're engaging and That's how it's set up for it, which is just so contrary to the rest of history I mean it was always it bleeds it leads in the news because they wanted people they wanted to win ratings news But they only had so much control and it was only on for an hour exactly and now it's just this 24-7 anxiety fest and

00:03:14 Speaker_02
It's omnipresent, and it's basically made to convince you that you need more of that thing. And it's like a bad diet. The first few shots of it, the first few bites of it taste amazing. But if you eat the full toffee cake every day,

00:03:33 Speaker_02
for the next 365 days, and then for the next year, I mean, you're going to get diabetes and heart disease. So the version of that is like your brain just gets totally fried.

00:03:45 Speaker_02
And then the bigger problem is then when you're presented with, maybe it's not even the truth, but an opinion that you should consider, You get totally shut out of it. And that's like the real problem.

00:03:56 Speaker_02
You build these antibodies in your body, where this other version that says, take a step back and reconsider, it's not allowed. And then if you said to yourself, well, how do you even start? Where do you go?

00:04:10 Speaker_02
A friend of mine works at Facebook and he showed me threads. We were playing poker last week and he showed me threads. And what's incredible is threads and X are the exact polar opposites in some ways.

00:04:27 Speaker_02
And he was showing me in the context of how the outrage machine on threads works. And the way it works is like, and this woman wrote this article about it.

00:04:36 Speaker_01
But what they'll do is they'll post something that says, two plus two equals five. Just that. And you'll get like a million views.

00:04:45 Speaker_02
And then it'll first start with like, you know, folks that are like trying to gently nudge this person, actually, you know, I want you to reconsider two plus two actually equals four, you know, and then it builds and it builds and it builds.

00:04:57 Speaker_02
And this that so there's this like this weird version of how people react to like information and it tends to be, Kid gloves, and then people just lose their mind at some point.

00:05:08 Speaker_02
So it's kind of like, and then over here, I think on X, what you find is there's a lot more structural data, but then it can easily get lost in the noise because there's just a few things that just constantly consume what the algorithms want to amplify and what is important in the moment.

00:05:23 Speaker_02
And I think that finding a way to probably blend the two is probably what is the best in the sense that there's probably some stuff over here that doesn't make it over here.

00:05:33 Speaker_02
And there's probably a lot of stuff over here that doesn't make it over here. A little bit of that diet for everybody probably goes a long way.

00:05:40 Speaker_05
Is there heavy content moderation on threads?

00:05:44 Speaker_02
I don't know. I don't use it. I don't either. I don't have it. I just saw it in that moment. But when he described how the engagement farming works, it just sounded kind of like ludicrously, you know.

00:05:59 Speaker_05
So to explain to people that 2 plus 2 equals 5. If you just post that. Is a bizarre thing that was going around where they were talking about how math is racist. Exactly.

00:06:08 Speaker_01
Basically that's where it gets to. Math is racist. Which is.

00:06:13 Speaker_05
Oh no. If math is racist we have a real problem. Because that means everything's racist. Because everything's math.

00:06:22 Speaker_02
You know, we had this thing in, I don't know if you saw this, in the Bay Area in COVID. The city of San Francisco brought together their board of education or whatever, and they eliminated a bunch of AP classes, including a bunch of AP math classes.

00:06:39 Speaker_02
And part of it was because of this reason, because they felt it was exclusionary. And I think what it misses is that

00:06:47 Speaker_02
There's all this other stuff you could do to kind of like even the starting line for folks, but if you rip out things like AP Math, like take a step back, like in eight billion people in the world, what are the odds that there's only literally one Steve Jobs?

00:07:08 Speaker_02
Or literally only one Elon Musk, meaning capable of that kind of execution? I suspect that there's maybe two. And so part of our social responsibility as adults is how do you make it so that that second Steve Jobs can find a path to do stuff?

00:07:31 Speaker_02
And I'm not saying AP math is the answer, but I'm saying there are people that, I remember when I was growing up, I wasn't particularly good at anything in school. But there were a few subjects which I was just like, wow.

00:07:44 Speaker_02
The little time I spent in school, I felt a little safe. I could connect. It built up a little bit of my self-confidence, and I didn't feel so marginal. I'm sure there's a lot of kids like that.

00:07:57 Speaker_02
For some very small subset, maybe that's what that kind of class is. It pushes them to a boundary that they didn't know was possible. You're teaching them stuff. That's really cool.

00:08:06 Speaker_02
So I understand what the intent is, but then the byproduct is there's a small group of folks that get shut out and then that person that could be that Steve Jobs-like person, that Elon Musk-like person is held a little bit back.

00:08:22 Speaker_02
And I think that that hurts all of us. So you got to find a way where We're doing just a little bit better.

00:08:29 Speaker_05
Well, isn't that part of the problem with eliminating gifted classes? I think they're doing that in New York. Is that where they're doing that? Find out if that's the case.

00:08:39 Speaker_05
There's some where there's this hot controversy about eliminating the concept of gifted classes.

00:08:45 Speaker_05
But the reality is there's some people that are going to find regular classes, particularly mathematics and some other things, they're going to find them a little too easy. They're more advanced. They're more advanced students.

00:08:57 Speaker_05
And those students should have some sort of an option to excel. And it should be inspiring. Maybe intimidating but also inspiring to everybody else. I mean, that's part of the reason why kids go to school together to come Look how hard she works.

00:09:10 Speaker_05
She works so much harder than me. Look how much she's getting had fuck I got to work harder and it really does work that way. That's how human beings in in cooperation, that's how they grow together and

00:09:22 Speaker_02
And I think that it used to be the case that if you went to, in high school, you would be really cool with people that were going to like specific high schools to get really good at something. Remember like that show on TV, Fame? Yes. Right?

00:09:38 Speaker_02
And so, well that was more about the performing arts, right? Right. But that was amazing. It's like, you know, if you knew a kid that was going to one of those schools, what you'd say is, wow, you are incredibly talented in this one specific thing.

00:09:50 Speaker_02
Go push the boundary of that and see what happens. I think we owe it to ourselves to say that. There's 330 million Americans in the United States.

00:10:03 Speaker_02
Don't you think that if we created a bunch of different ways for people to figure out what they're super good at, things are better, not worse, what is the answer? Do you think things take a huge step back?

00:10:17 Speaker_02
You know, you have more Joe Rogans, you have more Kevin Harts, you know, you have more great actors, you have more great directors, but you also have more engineers.

00:10:25 Speaker_02
You have more scientists, you have more doctors, and you created a way for them to just go deep in something where their curiosity took them. That's okay. What's wrong with that idea?

00:10:35 Speaker_05
There's nothing wrong. It sounds optimal.

00:10:38 Speaker_02
It sounds pretty reasonable.

00:10:39 Speaker_05
It sounds great. It's just a matter of resources and then also completely revamping how you teach kids. This is my gripe with this whole ADHD thing.

00:10:52 Speaker_05
You know, I've talked to many people who have varying opinions on whether or not that's an actual condition or whether or not there's a lot of people that have a lot of energy and you're sitting in a class that's very boring and they don't want to pay attention to it.

00:11:03 Speaker_05
So instead, you drug them and you give them medication that is essentially speed and lets them hyper-focus on things and now all of a sudden little Timmy's locked on. You know, it was really just the medication that he needed.

00:11:17 Speaker_05
And I think for a lot of those kids, if they found something that was really interesting to them, maybe they're really bored with this, but they're really excited by biology.

00:11:27 Speaker_05
Maybe there's something that resonates with their particular personality and what excites them. And they could find a pathway. And instead, we have this very rigid system that wants to get children accustomed to the idea of sitting still

00:11:43 Speaker_05
for an hour at a time over and over and over again throughout the day, being subjected to people who aren't necessarily that motivated or getting paid that well.

00:11:53 Speaker_02
Well, we're gonna probably talk about AI today, but let's just touch on this just in this one second. We are going to create computers that are able to do a lot of the rote thinking for us. What that means is, I think,

00:12:14 Speaker_02
The way that humans differentiate ourselves is that we're going to have to have judgment and taste. Those are very defining psychological characteristics, in my opinion. But what that means is if you go back to how school is taught, what you said

00:12:30 Speaker_02
is very limiting for what the world is going to look like in 30 years. You know, in 30 years where you have a PhD assistant that's in your pocket that can literally do all of the memorization, spell checking, grammar, all of the fact recall for you,

00:12:47 Speaker_02
Teaching that today is probably not going to be as important as interpreting it. Like, how do you teach kids to learn to think, not to memorize and regurgitate? So, we have to flip, I think, this education system.

00:13:01 Speaker_02
We have to try to figure out a different way to solve this problem because, like, you can't set children in this generation up, our kids, to go and have to compete with a computer. That's crazy. It's crazy.

00:13:18 Speaker_05
They can make a Drake song in three minutes.

00:13:21 Speaker_02
The computer is going to win. So what can't the computer do is, I think, maybe a reasonable question. And I think the computer, in a lot of cases, can't express judgment. It'll learn, but today it's not going to be able to, the same way that humans can.

00:13:37 Speaker_02
it's going to have different taste, right?

00:13:39 Speaker_02
So the way that we interpret things, the same way that you motivate people, like all the psychology, all these things that are sort of like the softer skills that allowed humans to cooperate and like work together, that stuff becomes more important when you have a fleet of robots.

00:13:55 Speaker_02
And so if you go all the way back to school, Today, the school system is unfortunately in a kind of a pretty tough loop. Like look, teachers I think are like going to become the most – you know, the top three or four important people in society.

00:14:17 Speaker_02
And the reason is because they are going to be tasked with teaching your kids and my kids how to think, not to memorize. Don't tell me what happened in the War of 1812.

00:14:27 Speaker_02
I don't, like, you can just, you know, use a search engine or use a chat GPT and find out the answer. But why did it happen? What were the motivations? If it happens again, what would you do differently or the same?

00:14:41 Speaker_02
And those kinds of reasoning and judgment things, I think, we're still far ahead of those computers. So the teachers have to teach that, which means you have to pay them more, you have to put them in a position to do that job better.

00:14:52 Speaker_02
And then back to what you said, I've lived this example of ADHD in my family. I have five kids. One of the kids was diagnosed with it. And unfortunately, what happens is the system a little bit closes in on you.

00:15:07 Speaker_02
So on the one side, they give you a lot of benefits, I guess.

00:15:11 Speaker_02
I put it in quotes because you get these emails that say, if they want extra time, if they want this, if they want, you know, they'll give you a computer, for example, to take notes so that you don't handwrite.

00:15:22 Speaker_02
So those feel like aids to help you, right? But then on the other side, one person was very adamant, like, hey, you want to medicate. And my ex-wife and I were just like, under no circumstances are we medicating our child.

00:15:39 Speaker_02
That was a personal decision that we made with the information that we had knowing that specific kid. And all kids are different, so I don't want to generalize. And then the crazy thing, Joe, what we did was we took the iPad out of the kid's hand.

00:15:52 Speaker_02
And we said, we had these very strict device rules, and then COVID turned everything upside down. And you're just surviving. You're sheltering in place. You've got five kids running around. They're not really being taught by the schools.

00:16:10 Speaker_02
The schools won't convene the kids. And so what do you do? You just hand them the device. Everything was through the device. the literal class they got through the device, the way that they would talk to their friends through the device.

00:16:22 Speaker_02
So it reintroduced itself in a way that we couldn't control. And then we saw this slippage. And then what we did was we just drew a bright red line, and we said, we're taking it out of your hands.

00:16:35 Speaker_02
no more video games, no more iPad, we're gonna dose it in very small doses, and he had an entire turnaround. But then here's what happened.

00:16:46 Speaker_02
I took my eye off the ball a little bit this summer, because it was like, he had a great year, he reset, his self-confidence was coming back, I was like, man, this is amazing. And then I do the thing that, you know, a lot of people would do.

00:16:58 Speaker_02
Ah, here, you can have an hour. Yeah, it's fine, you know, talk to your friends, you know, and then it started again. And then again, now we just have to reset.

00:17:06 Speaker_02
So at least in our example, what we have found, and I'm not, it may not apply to everybody, but for us, him not being bathed in this thing had a huge effect.

00:17:21 Speaker_02
Playing basketball outside, roughhousing with his brothers, having to talk to his friends, having to talk to us, watching movies.

00:17:31 Speaker_02
Or we would just sit around, because by the way, what I noticed was my kids had a hard time watching movies or listening to songs on Spotify for the full duration. They'd get to the hook and they'd be like, forward.

00:17:47 Speaker_02
And they'd be like, you know, they'd watch like eight minutes next. And I was like, what are you guys doing? Like, this isn't, like, enjoy the fullness. They couldn't even sit there for three and a half minutes.

00:17:59 Speaker_02
So what at least, you know, my son was learning was, right, to just chill a little bit. be there, be able to watch the show. And these shows move at a glacial pace relative to what they're used to if they're playing a video game. Or TikTok. Or TikTok.

00:18:17 Speaker_02
Yeah, because TikTok, they're like this, boom, boom, boom, boom. And it's helped. It's not a cure. But it just goes back to what you're saying, which is like, if you give parents options, and I heard this crazy stat, I don't know if this is true,

00:18:36 Speaker_02
If you take your devices away from a kid, the kid will feel isolated from their other students. The critical mass, I don't know if this is true or not, but it's what I was told, so I'll go with it, was that if you get a third of the parents

00:18:52 Speaker_02
So like in a class of 20, if you get a third of the parents to agree as well, no devices, the kid feels zero social isolation because it becomes normative. It's like it's normal.

00:19:03 Speaker_02
Yeah, you got a flip phone and you're texting like this to your parents or you're calling, you know. And I don't know, it may be worth trying.

00:19:12 Speaker_02
There was a crazy thing, I don't know, Jimmy, if you can find this, but there was a crazy thing, Eton College, which is like the most elite, if you will, private school in the UK.

00:19:25 Speaker_02
It's kind of where like all the prime ministers of the United Kingdom have matriculated through Eton College. It's like high school, fancy high school. They sent a memo to the parents for the incoming class.

00:19:38 Speaker_02
And the headmaster said, when you get on campus with your child, we're going to give you what is basically a Nokia flip phone.

00:19:47 Speaker_02
You are going to take the SIM card out of this kid's iPhone or Android, you're gonna stick it in this thing, and this is how they're gonna communicate with you, and communicate amongst each other while they're on campus at E. Wow. Mandatory. Mandatory.

00:20:03 Speaker_02
I thought this was incredible. I don't know what the impact is, but that takes a lot of courage, and I thought, that's amazing.

00:20:12 Speaker_05
Well, it's great because then, if they're communicating, they're only communicating.

00:20:18 Speaker_05
They're not sharing things or Snapchatting each other back and forth, and the addictive qualities of these phones, which is, if you think about the course of human evolution,

00:20:29 Speaker_05
And you think of how we adapted to agriculture and civilization, and we essentially became softer and less muscular and less aggressive. That took a long time. A long time. That was a long time. This thing is hitting us so quickly.

00:20:46 Speaker_05
And one of the bizarre things is it creates a disconnection. Even though you're being connected to people consistently and constantly through social media,

00:20:58 Speaker_05
There's a disconnection between human beings and normal behavior and learning through interaction with each other, social cues, all the different things that we rely on to learn how to be a friend and to learn how to be better at talking to each other.

00:21:15 Speaker_02
I have a rule with my oldest, who's 15. He'll call me. He'll call me. Or even when I call him. It's like a grunt greeting. Right. I don't know how to talk anymore. And I'm like, hello. And so I went through this thing where I would just hang up.

00:21:48 Speaker_02
And I'm like, you know, beep, hang up. And then he would call me back, huh?

00:21:57 Speaker_02
And then finally I said, I just want you to have these building blocks, they may sound really stupid to you right now, but looking people in the eye, being able to have a normal conversation, and be patient in that conversation.

00:22:15 Speaker_02
is gonna be really valuable for you. People will really be connected to you. You may not feel that, and you may think this is lame and stupid, what I'm telling you, but I was like, just try to do it.

00:22:28 Speaker_02
And then what's so funny is, I would tell this story about our kids go to a very well-meaning private school, right? And, I almost think sometimes, again, we're not teaching necessarily kids to think for themselves.

00:22:45 Speaker_02
We're asking them to memorize a bunch of things. One of the things that I worry that we've taught our kids to memorize are the fake greetings and salutations. On the one hand, you have what's really visceral, which is,

00:23:00 Speaker_02
And then on the other hand, you know, sometimes you'll see these kids and they'll get introduced to somebody, hello, how are you? It's great to meet you. And I'm like, man, this is the most, this is the fakest thing I've ever seen.

00:23:12 Speaker_02
So you're at these two ends of the spectrum. And I would make fun of my kids sometimes because like, you know, they would say thank you, but they would say like, thank you, like the queen, they'd be like, Thank you, and I'm like, what are you doing?

00:23:25 Speaker_02
Who taught you that? You were taught at school to say thank you like that? You could just say thank you. Thanks, I appreciate that. Just look somebody in the eye and thank you.

00:23:35 Speaker_05
But what concerns me is as this tech gets more and more invasive in terms of how human beings, particularly children, interface with it, and as it gets, I mean, really we would just be guessing as to what comes out of AI and to what kind of world we're even looking at in 20 years.

00:23:53 Speaker_05
It seems like it's having a profound effect on the behavior of human beings, particularly young human beings and their developmental. How old are you? I'm 48. I'm 57. So when I grew up, there was zero of this.

00:24:07 Speaker_05
And I got this slow trickle through adulthood from when I was a child, the VHS tapes and answering machines through the big tech.

00:24:16 Speaker_01
Yeah, you had the rotary phone. Yes. Yeah, exactly.

00:24:18 Speaker_05
So we went through the whole cycle of it, which is really interesting. So you get to see this profound change in people and what it's doing to kids. And you've got to wonder, what is that doing to the species? And is that going to be normal?

00:24:35 Speaker_05
Is it going to be normal to be emotionally disconnected and very bizarre in our person-to-person interface?

00:24:45 Speaker_02
I think that when technologies get going, you have this little burst. It's like these Cambrian moments. You get these little bursts which are overwhelmingly positive.

00:24:57 Speaker_02
I don't know what your reaction was, but my reaction when I first saw the iPhone, I was blown away. And I think the first four or five years was entirely positive.

00:25:10 Speaker_02
because it was just so novel, like you took this big computer and we effectively shrunk it to this little computer, made it half to a third of the cost, and lo and behold, supply-demand, just the number of computers tripled and quadrupled and quintupled, and so many more people were able to be a part of that economic cycle, all positive.

00:25:32 Speaker_02
Then you get a little dip, and the little dip is when I think we lose a little bit of the ambition of that first moment. and we get caught up in the economics of the current moment.

00:25:43 Speaker_02
And what I mean by that is, the last five or 10 years, I think why you feel this viscerally is we haven't had a big leap forward from the iPhone of really 2014, 15. And I'm not picking on the iPhone, I'm just, like a mobile device.

00:25:59 Speaker_02
So what have you had over the last 10 years? You've had an enormous amount of money get created by an enormous number of apps. And the problem is that they are in a cul-de-sac.

00:26:11 Speaker_02
And so they'll just iterate in this one way that they understand, because the money is really good, quite honestly. And the incentives of the capital markets will tell you to just keep doing that.

00:26:24 Speaker_02
But then I think what happens is something shocks us out of it, and then we get the second wave. So if you go all the way back to look at the PC, the first moment of the PC in the 70s and the early 80s was incredible.

00:26:38 Speaker_02
You had these people that were able to take it and do all kinds of really interesting things. It was pure. Then you had sort of like the 90s and the early 2000s, and what was it? It was duopolistic at best, Microsoft and Intel.

00:26:55 Speaker_02
And what they were able to do was extract a huge tax by putting all of these things on folks' desks, and it was still mostly positive.

00:27:03 Speaker_02
But it was somewhat limited because most of the spoils went to these two companies and all the other companies basically got a little bit run over.

00:27:12 Speaker_02
And then it took the DOJ to step in in 2000 and try to course correct that on behalf of everybody basically. And then what happened was the internet just exploded. And the internet blew the doors wide open.

00:27:26 Speaker_02
And all of a sudden, if you had a PC, you didn't have these gatekeepers. It actually didn't even matter whether you were running on Intel anymore. You just needed a browser. So you didn't need Microsoft Windows, and you didn't need Intel.

00:27:40 Speaker_02
and then just the internet just explodes. So we have a positive moment followed by, you know, call it 10 or 15 years of basically economic extraction, and then we have value. I think today it's like we've invented something really powerful.

00:27:59 Speaker_02
We've had 10 or 15 years that were largely economic. And again, I think, you know, this is like the problem I'm gonna sound like every other

00:28:09 Speaker_02
you know, nerd from Central Casting from Silicon Valley telling you this, but I do think that there's a version of this AI thing which blows the doors wide open again.

00:28:19 Speaker_02
And I think we owe it to ourselves to figure out how to make that more likely than not likely.

00:28:24 Speaker_05
Well, it seems it's inevitable, right? AI's emergence and where it goes from here on is inevitable. It's going to happen. And we should probably try to steer it at least in a way that benefits everybody. And I agree with you.

00:28:37 Speaker_05
There is a world I could see where AI changes everything. And one of the things that makes me most hopeful is a much better form of translation, so that we'll be able to understand each other better.

00:28:51 Speaker_05
It's a giant part of the problem in the world that's, you know, the Tower of Babel.

00:28:56 Speaker_05
So we really can't communicate with each other very well, so we really don't know what the problems are in these particular areas or how people feel about us, how we feel about them. Can't empathize. Yeah, we can't.

00:29:07 Speaker_05
It's very easy to not empathize with someone where you don't even know what their letters are.

00:29:12 Speaker_02
Have you been in a situation where you have a translator with a thing in your ear? No. Empathy zero. Because the problem is the person there is giving it to you in a certain tone because it's first person.

00:29:25 Speaker_05
Oh, I've had that when I interview fighters. I've had translators.

00:29:28 Speaker_02
Yeah, but when you're here, it's very hard to feel empathy for this person because it's this person that you're focused on because you're trying to catch it. So you hear the words. I think somewhat of the meaning is a little bit lost.

00:29:41 Speaker_02
Then you go back to this person and you say something, and they're in the same problem that you are. So I agree that the translation thing is cool. I think that there's going to be some negative areas.

00:29:55 Speaker_02
and I think that there's going to be a lot of pressure on certain jobs, and we gotta figure that out. So it's not all roses. But some areas, if you imagine them, I'll give you a couple if you want, are just bananas, I think.

00:30:09 Speaker_02
Okay, so I'll go from the most likely to like the craziest. Okay, so most likely today, do you know, if you know somebody that's had breast cancer,

00:30:21 Speaker_02
if they go into a hospital, a random hospital in America, and the doctor says, we need to do a lumpectomy, meaning we need to take some mass out of your breast to take the cancer out.

00:30:33 Speaker_02
what do you think the error rate today is across all hospitals in America? It's about 30%. And in regional hospitals, so places that are poor, right, or places that are in far-flung parts of the United States, it can be upwards of 40%.

00:30:50 Speaker_02
This is not the doctor's fault, okay? The problem is that you're forcing him or her to look with their eyes into tissue and try to figure out, well, where is the border where the cancer stops?

00:31:07 Speaker_02
So for every 10 surgeries, what that means are a week later. So imagine this. You get a breast cancer surgery. They take it out. They send it to the pathologist. The pathologist takes between 7 and 11 days. So you're kind of waiting.

00:31:23 Speaker_02
Seven of the calls come back, you're clean margins, you're great. Now go to the next step. Three of the calls, I'm sorry, there's still cancer inside your body. Three. So these women now go back for the next surgery.

00:31:39 Speaker_02
But the problem is one of those women will get another call that says, I'm sorry, there's still cancer. And so what is that? That's a computer vision problem. That's not necessarily a problem that can't not be solved literally today.

00:31:58 Speaker_02
We have models, we have tissue samples of women of all ages, of all races. So you have all of the different boundary conditions you'd need to basically get to a 0% error rate. And what's amazing is that is now working its way through the FDA.

00:32:17 Speaker_02
So call it within the next two years, there'll be an AI assistant that sits inside of an operating room.

00:32:25 Speaker_02
The surgeon will take out what they think is appropriate, they'll put it into this machine, and it'll literally, I'm gonna simplify, but it'll flash red or green. You got all the cancer out. You need to take out a little bit more, just right over here.

00:32:39 Speaker_02
And now you get it out, and now all of a sudden, instead of a 30% error rate, you have a 0% error rate. That's amazing. That's today, because you have this computer that's able to help you.

00:32:52 Speaker_02
And all we need is the will and the data that says, okay, we want to do this, but just show me that it works. And show me what the alternative would be if we didn't do it. And the alternative turns out to be pretty brutal.

00:33:07 Speaker_02
14 surgeries for every 10 surgery. That's not what the most advanced nation in the world should be doing.

00:33:12 Speaker_02
Okay, so if you do it for breast cancer, the reason why breast cancer is where folks are focusing is because it gets so much attention and it's like prime time. But it's not just breast cancer.

00:33:26 Speaker_02
Lung cancer, pancreatic cancer, stomach cancer, colon cancer. If you look at any kind of tumor,

00:33:36 Speaker_02
So if you're at the stage where you're like, we need to get this thing, this foreign growing thing out of our body, we should all have the ability to just do that with 0% error, and it will be possible in the next couple of years because of AI.

00:33:52 Speaker_02
Okay, so that's kind of like a, that's cool and it's coming. I think between years two and years five, you're gonna see this crazy explosion in materials. And this is gonna sound maybe dumb, but I think it's one of the coolest things.

00:34:10 Speaker_02
If you look at the periodic table of elements, what's amazing is we keep adding. So there's like 118 elements. We actually just theoretically forecasted there's gonna be 119, so we created a little box.

00:34:27 Speaker_02
It's like, it's theoretical, but it's gonna show up. And they forecasted that there's gonna be 142, okay? So the periodic table of elements, quote unquote, grows. But when you look at the lived world today,

00:34:41 Speaker_02
We live in this very narrow expression of all of those things. We use the same few materials over and over and over again. But if you had to solve a really complicated problem, don't you think the answer could theoretically be in this?

00:34:57 Speaker_02
Meaning, if you took, I'm going to make it up, selenium and then doped it with titanium 1%, but if you doped it with boron 14%, all of these things are possible.

00:35:08 Speaker_02
It's like stronger than the strongest thing in the world, and wow, and it's lighter than anything. So now you can make rockets with it and send it all the way up with less energy. It's all possible. So why haven't we figured it out?

00:35:21 Speaker_02
Because the amount of energy and the amount of computers we need to solve those problems, which are super complicated, haven't been available to us. I think that is this next phase of AI.

00:35:34 Speaker_02
So what you said, which is we're going to have these PhD-level robots and agents. In the next two to five years, we're going to come up with all kinds of materials.

00:35:43 Speaker_02
You'll have a frying pan that's nonstick but doesn't have to heat up, whatever you want, from the most benign to the most incredible stuff. We'll just re-engineer what's on Earth. That's gonna be crazy. It's gonna be incredible.

00:35:59 Speaker_02
We all benefit from that. The kinds of jobs that that creates. We don't even know what job class that is to work with selenium and boron. Again, I'm making up these elements, so please don't.

00:36:11 Speaker_02
So the point is that there's, so that's like in the middle phase. So our physical lived world is going to totally transform. Imagine a building that's made of a material that bends. It can just go like this and nothing changes to it.

00:36:28 Speaker_02
Why would that be important? Well, if you want to protect yourself from the crazy unpredictability of climate, in the areas where it's susceptible to that, maybe you can construct these things much cheaper. Well, earthquakes. Earthquakes.

00:36:42 Speaker_02
You could construct more of them.

00:36:44 Speaker_02
Imagine in San Francisco, you could build buildings that solve the housing crisis, but do it in a way that was cheaper because the materials are totally different, and you could just prove that these things are bulletproof.

00:36:54 Speaker_02
So instead of spending a billion dollars to build a building, because you've got to go hundreds of feet into the earth, you just go 50 feet, and it just figures it out.

00:37:05 Speaker_02
So that's possible, and I think there will be people that use these AI models to go and solve those things. And then after that, I think you get into the world of, it's not just robots that are in a computer, but it's like a physical robot.

00:37:23 Speaker_02
And those physical robots are going to do things that today will make so much sense in hindsight. So an example, I was thinking about this this weekend. Imagine if you had a bunch of optimists, like Tesla's robot, and they were the beat cops.

00:37:40 Speaker_02
They were the highway patrol, okay? Now, what happens there? Well, first, you don't put humans in the way. I suspect then the reaction of those robots could be markedly different. Now, those robots would be controlled remotely, right?

00:37:57 Speaker_02
So the people that are remote now can be a very different archetype, right? Instead of the physical requirements of policing, you now add this other layer, which is the psychological elements and the judgment.

00:38:11 Speaker_02
So my point is that if you had robots that were able to do the dangerous work for humans, I think it allows humans to do, again, judgment, those areas of judgment which are very gray and fuzzy.

00:38:25 Speaker_02
It'll take a long time for computers to be able to replace us to do that. I really do think so. I think the biggest thing that we have done as a disservice to what is coming is Some folks have tried to say that AI is the end all and be all.

00:38:43 Speaker_02
And I think the better way to think about this is that, you know how you used to have to get your spelling right in an email? And now you just don't think about it because Gmail just fixes it. it up-levels us, right?

00:38:58 Speaker_02
You used to have to remember the details of some crazy theory, random detail fact, now you can just Google it. So you can leave your mind to focus on other things, right?

00:39:10 Speaker_02
The creativity to write your next set, to think about the next interview, to think about your business, because you're occupying less time with the perfunctory stuff.

00:39:22 Speaker_02
I think these models are doing that, and they're going to get complemented with physical models, meaning physical robots. They're going to do a lot of work for us that we have not done, or today that we do very precariously.

00:39:39 Speaker_02
Should a robot go in and save you from a fire? I think it can probably do a pretty good job. They'll have multiple sensors, they'll have vision, they'll be able to understand exactly what's going on.

00:39:49 Speaker_02
If something is falling, they'll just be able to put their hand up and just like stop. You know what I mean? If they encounter any person of any body weight, it's no problem. Pick that person up, transport them.

00:40:01 Speaker_02
Again, it allows humans to focus on the things that we're really, really differentiated at. I do think it creates complications, but we have to figure those out. So that's kind of like a short, medium, long term.

00:40:18 Speaker_05
Well, I see what you're saying in the final example as the rosy scenario. That's the best case option, right? That it gives people the freedom to be more creative and to pursue different things.

00:40:31 Speaker_05
And I think there's always going to be a market for handmade things. People like things. They like an acoustic performance. They like stuff where it's very human and very real. But there's a lot of people that just want a job.

00:40:48 Speaker_05
And these people maybe just aren't inclined towards creativity and maybe they're very simple people who just want a job and they just want to work. Those are the people that I worry about.

00:41:01 Speaker_02
I worry about them as well. And I think that like I don't I didn't live in the agrarian economy nor in the Industrial Revolution. So I don't know how we solve this problem. But we have seen that problem two times. And each time, we found a way.

00:41:19 Speaker_02
And this goes back to sort of like news and politics and like just working together. But in each of those moments, we found a way to make things substantively better for all people. Like I saw this crazy stat.

00:41:33 Speaker_02
In 1800, do you know how many people lived in extreme poverty? You know where we are today? Sub 10%. Single digits. And it's a straight line that goes like this. And that was through an agrarian revolution. It was through the industrial revolution.

00:41:50 Speaker_02
So it is possible for humans to cooperate to solve these problems. I don't know what the answer is, but I do think you are right that it will put a lot of pressure on a lot of people. But that's why we gotta just figure this out.

00:42:04 Speaker_05
What are your thoughts on universal basic income as a band-aid to sort of mitigate that transition?

00:42:11 Speaker_02
I'm pretty sympathetic to that idea. I grew up on welfare. So what I can tell you is that there are a lot of people who are trying their best and for whatever set of boundary conditions can't figure it out.

00:42:28 Speaker_05
I agree. I grew up on welfare as well.

00:42:30 Speaker_02
Yeah. Yeah. And so if I didn't have that safety net, You know, my parents' struggles, I think, would have gotten even worse than what they were. Right. So I'm a believer in that social safety net. I think it's really important.

00:42:48 Speaker_05
It's best case scenario, right, because your parents worked their way out of it. My parents worked their way out of it. But some people are just content to just get a check.

00:42:58 Speaker_05
And this is the issue I think that a lot of people have, is that people will become entitled and just want to collect a check.

00:43:05 Speaker_05
And if it's a substantial portion of our country, like if universal basic income, if AI eliminates, let's just say a crazy number, like 70% of the manual labor jobs, truck drivers, construction workers, all that stuff gets eliminated.

00:43:21 Speaker_05
That's a lot of people without a purpose. And one of the things that a good day's work and earning your pay It makes people feel self-sufficient. It makes people feel valuable. It gives them a sense of purpose.

00:43:34 Speaker_05
They could look at the thing that they did, maybe build a building or something like that, and drive their kids by, hey, we built that building right there. Oh, wow. It's a part of their identity.

00:43:43 Speaker_05
And if they just get a check, and then what do they do, just play video games all day? That's the worst case scenario, is that people just get locked into this world of computers and online,

00:43:54 Speaker_05
and just receive checks, and have the bare necessities to survive, and are content with that, and then don't contribute at all.

00:44:05 Speaker_02
The jobs that, like, let's put it this way. If we were sitting here in 1924, whatever, 100 years ago, right in the midst of the turn of the Industrial Revolution, we would have seen a lot of folks that worked on farms,

00:44:26 Speaker_02
And we would have wondered, well, where are those jobs going to come from? And I think that now when you look back, it was like, not obvious, but you could see where the new job classes came from.

00:44:42 Speaker_02
It's like all of these industries that were possible because we built a factory. And a factory turned out to be a substrate, and then you built all these different kinds of businesses which created different kinds of jobs on top of it.

00:44:56 Speaker_02
I would hope that if we do this right, this next leap is like that, where we are in a period where it's hard to know with certainty what this job class goes to over here.

00:45:10 Speaker_02
But I think you have a responsibility to go and figure it out, and talk it out, and play it out. Because the past would tell you that we have a really good, humans, when they're unimpeded, have a really good ability to invent these things.

00:45:28 Speaker_02
So, I don't know, maybe what it is is by 2035, there's a billion people that have traveled to Mars. and you're building an entire planet from the ground up, there'll be all sorts of work to do there.

00:45:46 Speaker_05
Boy, what kind of people are going to go first there?

00:45:49 Speaker_02
I think that there'll be a lot of people that are frustrated with what's happening here.

00:45:53 Speaker_05
Yeah, sure. Just like the people that got on the Pinta, the Santa Maria, and made their way across the ocean.

00:46:00 Speaker_02
It all starts with a group of people that are just like, I'm fed up with this.

00:46:04 Speaker_05
Yeah. But to want to go to a place that doesn't even have an atmosphere, that's capable of sustaining human life, and you can only go back every couple of years. Those people are going to be psychos.

00:46:18 Speaker_05
You're going to have a completely psychotic Australia on meth. It's like the worst case scenario of the cast outs of society.

00:46:31 Speaker_02
What you say is so true, but if you think about what that decision looked like, 400 years ago when that first group of prisoners were put on a boat and sent to Australia, that's probably what it felt like.

00:46:46 Speaker_02
Most people on the mainland, when they were like, cha-chao, were probably thinking, man, this is insane. So it'll always look like that. It'll be easier to rationalize it in hindsight.

00:46:57 Speaker_02
But I do think that there will be a lot of people that want to go when it's possible to go. And look, we're in this studio. We could be anywhere. We could be in Salt Lake City. We could be in Rome. We could be in Perth. You don't know. It's all the same.

00:47:15 Speaker_05
Especially today.

00:47:16 Speaker_02
So you could be on Mars.

00:47:18 Speaker_05
Yeah, you could.

00:47:19 Speaker_01
You wouldn't know.

00:47:19 Speaker_05
That could be the future. Instantaneous communication with people on other planets, just like you could talk to people in New Zealand today.

00:47:30 Speaker_02
So that's an amazing example of an innovation in material science that we have been experimenting with for years. So basically at the core of what you just said is a semiconductor problem. It's a doping problem. Is it silicon germanium?

00:47:50 Speaker_02
Is it silicon germanium with something else? And the problem, Joe, is to answer what you just said is a tractable problem that has been bounded by energy and computers.

00:48:04 Speaker_02
And we're at a point where we're almost at infinite energy, and at a point we're almost at like, what I say is very specific, which is we're at the point where right in the distance is the marginal cost of energy is basically zero.

00:48:21 Speaker_02
The marginal cost, meaning to generate the next kilowatt is gonna cost like sub a penny. Even with today's stuff, you don't need nuclear, you don't need any of that stuff. We're just on this trend line right now.

00:48:34 Speaker_02
Because of AI, we're at the point where to get an answer to a question, super complicated, is going to be basically zero, the cost of that. When you put those two things together, What you just said, we will be in a position to answer.

00:48:49 Speaker_02
The world will be able to say, oh, Joe, you want instantaneous communication between here and Mars? We need to harden these communication chips. We're gonna build it with this stuff, which we simulated on a computer.

00:49:00 Speaker_02
We made it, it works, it's shipping, we're done. Now, that'll still take five and 10 years to do, but my point is, all these things that sound crazy, are not, they're actually not that crazy. These things are like achievable technical milestones.

00:49:17 Speaker_02
Everything will boil down to a technical question that I think we can answer. You want a hoverboard? We could probably figure it out.

00:49:24 Speaker_05
Well, then also with quantum computing, and one of the things about AI that's been talked about is this massive need for energy. And so they're going, at least it's been proposed to develop nuclear sites specifically to power AI, which is wild.

00:49:42 Speaker_02
Yeah, I have to be,

00:49:47 Speaker_05
You got to dance around this?

00:49:50 Speaker_02
No, I'll tell you what I think. OK, well, maybe before I give you my opinion, I'll tell you the facts. OK. Today, it costs about four cents a kilowatt hour. Just don't forget the units, just remember the four cents concept.

00:50:15 Speaker_02
20 years ago, it cost like six or seven cents. If you go and get solar panels on your roof, basically costs nothing. In fact, you can probably make money.

00:50:24 Speaker_02
So it costs you like negative one cent because you can sell the energy in many parts of America back to the grid. But if you look inside the energy market, the cost has been compounding. And you would say, well, how does this make sense?

00:50:39 Speaker_02
If the generation cost keeps falling, why is my end user cost keep going up? This is like, that doesn't make any sense. And when you look inside, we have a regulatory

00:50:56 Speaker_02
burden in America that says to the utilities of which they're like less than 2000 in America, we're giving you a monopoly effectively. In this area of Austin, you can provide all the energy.

00:51:10 Speaker_02
Now, Texas is different, but I'm just using it as an example. But in return, I'm going to allow you to increase prices, but I'm going to demand that you improve the infrastructure. Every few years, you've got to upgrade the grid.

00:51:25 Speaker_02
You've got to put money into this, money into that. Over the next 10 years, we've got to put a trillion dollars, America collectively, into improving the current grid.

00:51:36 Speaker_02
which I think will not be enough, because it is aging, and most importantly, it's insecure, meaning folks can penetrate that, folks can hack it, folks can do all kinds of stuff. And then it fails in critical moments.

00:51:52 Speaker_02
I think that in Austin, you had a whole bunch of really crazy outages in the last couple of years. People died. In 2024, that's totally unacceptable. So I think as people decide that they want resilience, you're gonna see 110 million power plants.

00:52:16 Speaker_02
which is every homeowner in the United States. Everybody's going to generate their own energy. Everybody's going to store their energy in a power wall. This stuff is going to become, I mean, absolutely dirt cheap.

00:52:30 Speaker_02
And it'll just be the way that energy is generated. So you have this, but this is not the whole solution, because you still need the big guys to show up.

00:52:41 Speaker_02
When you look inside of like the big guys, so like now you're talking about these 2,000 utilities that need to spend trillions of dollars, they can do a lot of stuff right now to make enough energy to make things work.

00:52:55 Speaker_02
But when you look at nuclear, I would just say that there are two different kinds of nuclear. There's the old and the new. The old stuff, I agree with you, it's just money and you can get it turned back on.

00:53:09 Speaker_02
It's a specific isotope of uranium, you can deal with it. Everybody knows in that world how to manage that safely. But then what you have are like these next generation things. And this is where I get a little stuck.

00:53:22 Speaker_02
And I'm not smart enough to know all of it, but I'm close enough to be slightly ticked off by it. There's a materials and a technical problem with these things. And what I mean, back to materials.

00:53:36 Speaker_02
Some of these next-gen reactors need a material that will take you like 50 years in America, in the world, to like harvest an ounce. The only place where you can really get it is the moon in sufficient quantity.

00:53:51 Speaker_02
Are you really gonna what I mean, that's how it's gonna work like you're gonna go to the moon You're gonna go to the moon.

00:53:56 Speaker_02
You're gonna harness this material then, you know schlep it off All the way back to some place in Illinois to make so I find that Hard to believe what is the material?

00:54:08 Speaker_02
I can I can find it It's in an email that one of my folks sent me but it's like it's a certain form of reactor that uses a very rare material to create the plasmonic energy that can generate all of this stuff. And it's just very hard to find on Earth.

00:54:25 Speaker_02
So I kind of scratched my head.

00:54:27 Speaker_05
What's the benefit of this particular type of reactor?

00:54:29 Speaker_02
Enormous energy. So like, you know, a solar cell gets this much energy, you know, a nuclear reactor does this, and like this other thing does that. And it's super clean.

00:54:40 Speaker_02
So my point is like these next-gen reactors, I think have some pretty profound technical problems that haven't been figured out. I applaud the people that are going after it.

00:54:51 Speaker_02
But I think it's important to not oversell that, because it's super hard, and there's still some profound technical challenges that haven't been solved yet.

00:55:03 Speaker_02
We just got past what's called positive net energy, meaning, let's just like, you put, I'm making up a number, 100 units of energy in, and at least you try to get out 100.01. and we're kind of there. So that's where we are on these next-gen reactors.

00:55:26 Speaker_02
The old generation of reactors, I'm a total believer in, and we should be building these things as fast as possible so that we have an infinite amount of energy.

00:55:37 Speaker_02
By the way, if you have infinite energy, the most important thing I think that happens is you have a massive peace dividend. The odds of the United States going to war when we have infinite energy approaches zero.

00:55:51 Speaker_05
But isn't the problem, with introducing this to other countries, and I believe it was India where they introduced nuclear power plants, then they realized very quickly they could figure out how to make nuclear weapons from that.

00:56:04 Speaker_00
Yes, when the uranium degrades, it can be used in weapons-grade uranium.

00:56:09 Speaker_05
And the real problem would be if that is not a small handful of countries that have nuclear weapons, but the entire world, it could get very sketchy.

00:56:19 Speaker_02
I think you're touching what I think objectively to me is the single biggest threat facing all of us today. I escaped a civil war, so I've had a lived experience of how destructive war can be. The collateral damage of war is terrible. Where were you?

00:56:52 Speaker_02
In Sri Lanka. I was part of the ethnic majority, Sinhalese Buddhist. But, you know, we were, they were fighting Hindu Tamil minority. And it was a 20-year civil war.

00:57:07 Speaker_02
It flipped the whole country upside down from an incredible place with 99% literacy to just a, you know, a struggling, developing third world country. And so we moved to Canada. We stay in Canada. You know, my parents do whatever they could.

00:57:26 Speaker_02
They really, and they got run over by that war. They went from a solidly middle class life to my father, you know, had a ton of, you know, just alcoholism and didn't really work. And my mother went from being a nurse to being a housekeeper.

00:57:41 Speaker_02
And it was dysfunctional. it really crippled, I think, their dreams for themselves. And so, you know, they breathe that into their kids. Fine. But that can't be the solution where hundreds of millions or billions of people have to deal with that risk.

00:57:59 Speaker_02
And I am objectively afraid that we have lost the script a little bit. I think that folks don't really understand how destructive war can be, but also that there are not enough people objectively afraid of this.

00:58:16 Speaker_02
And that's what sends my spidey senses up and says, hold on a second. When everybody is telling you that this is off the table and not possible, shouldn't you just look at the world around and ask, are we sure that that's true?

00:58:33 Speaker_02
And I come and I think to myself, wow, we are at the biggest risk of my lifetime. And I think the only thing that is probably near this is maybe at some point in the Cold War, I don't know, because I was so young, definitely Bay of Pigs.

00:58:52 Speaker_02
But it required JFK to draw a hard line in the sand and say, absolutely not. So will we be that fortunate this time around? Are we going to find a way to eliminate that existential risk?

00:59:06 Speaker_02
This is why like my current sort of like vein of political philosophy is mostly that, which is like, you know, the Democrats and the Republicans, there's just so much fighting over so many small stakes issues in the sense that

00:59:24 Speaker_02
Some of these issues matter more or less in different points, but there is one issue above all which where if you get it wrong, nothing matters, and that is nuclear war.

00:59:35 Speaker_02
And you have two and a half nuclear powers now that are out and about extending and projecting their power into the world, Russia, China, and Iran. That wasn't what it was like 10 years ago. That wasn't what it was like 25 years ago.

00:59:57 Speaker_02
It wasn't even what it was like four years ago. And I just don't think enough people take a step back and say, hold on a second, if this thing escalates, all this stuff that you and I just talked about won't matter.

01:00:11 Speaker_02
Whether our kids are on Adderall or not, or the iPad, don't give them so much Fortnite, or material science, or optimists. It's all off the table. Because we will be destroying ourselves. And I just think that that's tragic.

01:00:28 Speaker_02
We have an enormous responsibility right now for the village elders of the world to tell people, guys, we are sleepwalking into something that you can't walk back from.

01:00:40 Speaker_05
One of the strangest things about us is the kind of wisdom that's necessary to sort of see the future and prognosticate and see where this could go, especially based on the history of human beings and how many times things have

01:00:57 Speaker_05
Like, you were talking about Sri Lanka, but there's many examples all over the world of civilizations that were thriving, that were pounded into dust.

01:01:05 Speaker_05
And because every day is similar for us, we have this inability to look forward and to make that leap and see the potential for disaster that all these things have.

01:01:19 Speaker_05
And this is what freaks me out about when people talk openly about, you know, we have to win with Russia versus Ukraine. Like, what are you talking about?

01:01:29 Speaker_00
What is winning?

01:01:30 Speaker_05
Yeah. What does that mean? Like, this sounds insane. And then applauding the long range attacks into Russia now, like this escalation. oh, they're attacking Russia now, they'll show them. Are you in a movie?

01:01:44 Speaker_05
Do you think that this always ends up with the good guys winning? Because that's not the case in human history at all. And not only that, there is no good guy if people start launching nukes. Everybody's a bad guy, and everybody's fucked.

01:01:58 Speaker_05
And that's on the table. When you see long-range Israel bombing campaigns in the Lebanon, and you see what's going on with Ukraine and Russia, like, who knows? Who knows how this escalates? Who knows what the retaliatory response is?

01:02:14 Speaker_05
Who knows what the response to the response is?

01:02:17 Speaker_02
Well, I think, I think, like, let me add to this by saying, we know what the response will be not. It will not be measured. It will not be calm. It will not be, hey, let's get on the phone and talk about it.

01:02:30 Speaker_02
The thing is, there was a long period of time where America was the leading moral actor in the world. And I think that we spoke from a place of wisdom, but also earned respect.

01:02:45 Speaker_02
But we forget that at the end of the Cold War, it's not that we vanquished the USSR as much as they imploded from within. It was just an economic calamity. They just couldn't afford to keep up with us. And the reason was we had these two edges.

01:03:02 Speaker_02
We had a technological edge and we had an economic edge. And when you put those two things together, it created a lot of abundance.

01:03:15 Speaker_02
Now, we can talk about how some of that is not equal, which I also agree with, but it allowed America to be sort of effectively for a long period of time, the top dog. The honest reality is that's not where we are today. We are one of two or three.

01:03:34 Speaker_02
And the problem with that is that you can't look back in history and try to live your life like what it was like in the good old days. You know, we're not the high school football star anymore.

01:03:46 Speaker_02
So we need to live in a more modest way, in a more reliable and consistent way with neighbors that have also for themselves done well and just realize that they have their own incentives.

01:04:00 Speaker_02
And when you tell them to do something, they're not always going to listen. So if we don't understand that and find a way to de-escalate these things, what you said is going to happen.

01:04:13 Speaker_02
Something is going to be one step too far, a reaction, a reaction, a reaction, and then eventually somebody will overreact. And that is all just so totally avoidable. And it just frustrates me that we objectively don't understand that.

01:04:33 Speaker_02
We sweep it under the carpet and we talk about all the other things. And I understand that some of those things, all of those things, let's say, matter. But at some point in time, nothing matters. Because if you don't get this right, nothing matters.

01:04:52 Speaker_02
And I think we have to find a way of finding people that draw a bright red line and say, this is the line I will never cross under any circumstance.

01:05:02 Speaker_02
And I think America needs to do that first, because it's what gives everybody else the ability to exit stage left and be OK with it.

01:05:09 Speaker_05
The other problem that America clearly has is that there's an enormous portion of what controls the government, whether you want to call it the military-industrial complex, military contractors, there's so much money to be made in pushing that line.

01:05:28 Speaker_05
Pushing it to the brink of destruction but not past. Maintaining a constant state of war but not an apocalypse. And that as long as there's financial incentives to keep escalating and you're still getting money and they're still signing off on

01:05:45 Speaker_05
hundreds of billions of dollars to funnel this, and it's all going through these military contractors and bringing over weapons and gear. And the windfall is huge. The amount of money is huge.

01:05:56 Speaker_05
And they do not want to shut that off for the sake of humanity, especially if someone can rationalize. You get this diffusion of responsibility where there's a whole bunch of people together and they're all talking about it.

01:06:06 Speaker_05
Everyone's kind of on the same page and you have shareholders that you have to represent. Like the whole thing is bananas.

01:06:12 Speaker_02
So I think you just said the key thing. This may be super naive. But I think part of the most salvageable feature of the military-industrial complex is that these are for-profit, largely public companies that have shareholders.

01:06:33 Speaker_02
And I think that if you nudge them to making things that are equally economically valuable or more, ideally more, they probably would do that.

01:06:48 Speaker_05
What would be an example of that other than weapons manufacturing? What would be equally economically viable?

01:06:56 Speaker_02
When you look at the primes, the five big folks that get all of the economic activity from the Department of Defense, What they act is as an organizing principle for a bunch of subs underneath, effectively.

01:07:14 Speaker_02
They're like a general contractor and then they have a bunch of subcontractors. There's a bunch of stuff that's happening in these things that you can reorient if you had an economy that could support it.

01:07:28 Speaker_02
So for example, when you build a drone, okay, what you also are building, a subcomponent, a critical and very valued subcomponent,

01:07:37 Speaker_02
all the navigation, all the communications, all of it has to be encrypted, you can't hack it, you can't do any of that stuff.

01:07:45 Speaker_02
There is a broad set of commercial applications for that that are equal to and greater than just the profit margin of selling the drone, but they don't really explore those markets.

01:07:56 Speaker_02
If, for example, we are multi-planetary, I'll just go back to that example, I will bet you those same organizations will make two or three times as much money by being able to redirect that same technology into those systems that you just described.

01:08:17 Speaker_02
Hey, I need an entire communications infrastructure that goes from Earth to the Moon to Mars. We need to be able to triangulate. We need Internet access across all these endpoints. We need to be real-time from the get-go.

01:08:30 Speaker_02
There's just an enormous amount of economic value to do that. So again, we have these very siloed parts of the economy that are limited by what we know.

01:08:41 Speaker_02
And what we know is part of what you just said, which is we built these things, and then some people convince others to use the things that we built.

01:08:49 Speaker_02
And I think instead of saying there's some crazy, nefarious plot to always go to war, instead if we say, if you make the thing and you could sell it to a different market and make more money, would these people do it or are they hell-bent on war?

01:09:03 Speaker_02
I think it's more that they would just do it.

01:09:05 Speaker_05
As long as there's not still a business for war.

01:09:10 Speaker_02
So then it reduces war to a very different kind of business. smaller. I think it's more kind of drone-oriented. I'm not saying that war will go away. There's no utopia where war goes away.

01:09:30 Speaker_05
Which is a crazy thing to say, really.

01:09:32 Speaker_02
Unfortunately, I think that we're always going to be fighting for some resource. So the last 30 or 40 years, all these forever wars, we were fighting over energy, effectively.

01:09:41 Speaker_05
This is my one bright spot that I think about with AI as well. Everyone's terrified of the open border situation and criminals coming across the border.

01:09:53 Speaker_05
Wouldn't the solution be to not have a place like a desperate third world country where people are trying to escape on foot with their families?

01:10:04 Speaker_05
If we were living next door to another United States and you could just travel freely back and forth between the two of them, because it really didn't matter. Both of them are equally safe. Both of them have equal economic prosperity.

01:10:16 Speaker_05
Both of them are, you know, equally democratically governed. No problem. Go over there. Go over here. It kind of used to be like that with Canada. With Canada, you used to go over there with a driver's license.

01:10:27 Speaker_05
You used to be able to go back and forth between the United States. I mean, I think the first time I went to Canada, I did not have a passport. I had a driver's license. And it was kind of the same sort of deal. It was just accepted.

01:10:38 Speaker_05
Oh, that place is cool. We're cool. We're next to each other. If the whole world was like that- It would be incredible. Right. It would be incredible. And I think AI makes that possible.

01:10:47 Speaker_00
I think so, too.

01:10:48 Speaker_05
I think it makes that possible, and we're going to have to deal with a few very uncomfortable factors, one of them being the illegal drug trade, and another one being the consequences of prohibition and forcing people into doing things- Prohibition of drugs?

01:11:05 Speaker_05
Of drugs, yes. I'm not comfortable with that. But I feel like the only way to disempower illegal drug manufacturing is to have legal drug manufacturing that's regulated. The only way to stop fentanyl overdoses is to have cocaine become legal.

01:11:22 Speaker_05
But the problem with that is you're going to get a bunch of people that are addicted to cocaine.

01:11:26 Speaker_02
Can I ask you a question? Sure. I don't do drugs, so I don't understand. What's the step before it like what causes you to want to do fentanyl or they don't do fentanyl on purpose?

01:11:36 Speaker_05
Okay, most started because of a prescription No, most fentanyl overdoses is fentanyl that's cut into other drugs particularly party drugs like Molly and ecstasy Cocaine even heroin things along those lines where people think that they're getting a pure thing But they're getting it from the cartel and it's laced with this.

01:11:56 Speaker_05
Yes, and It's cheap and it's very small amounts of fentanyl do incredible damage. Like the amount of fentanyl that can kill you is like the head of a nail. It's very small. Have you seen it in relationship to a penny?

01:12:09 Speaker_02
I've seen a picture of it, yeah.

01:12:10 Speaker_05
It's crazy. So the problem is if you have a drug and you've cut it with a bunch of other things because you want to sell as much of it as possible, you add a bunch of things into it and to increase the potency they add fentanyl.

01:12:24 Speaker_05
And because of that, it's all done illegally, it's unregulated, so a lot of people die. And the numbers in the United States, I think they're upwards of 100,000 people.

01:12:33 Speaker_02
Is there something to do to motivate folks to not do the party drugs?

01:12:38 Speaker_05
Well, I think you're going to have to have a massive education campaign, and people are going to have to understand it the same way they understand cigarettes. Like, cigarette smoking in young people is down quite a bit from the 80s, right?

01:12:50 Speaker_05
And I think that's because of people understanding the consequences of it. But you're always going to have people that want to smoke cigarettes. And my belief is that they should be able to smoke cigarettes.

01:13:00 Speaker_05
I don't think you should do Adderall all day. But if you get a prescription, you can do it. But at least in my mind, you're getting Adderall from a pharmacy.

01:13:09 Speaker_05
And that pharmacy is going to give you actual Adderall and not some fentanyl-laced thing that's going to kill you. You have no idea. You think you're taking the same thing you've always taken, and then one day you're dead.

01:13:21 Speaker_05
And that's the case with a lot of people today, especially with party drugs. I don't think you should do heroin. I don't think you should do cocaine. I don't think you should fuck your life up. And I know too many people who have fucked their life up.

01:13:32 Speaker_05
But I also don't think that I should be able to tell you what you can do, especially when there's all these drugs that are readily available, particularly alcohol, which is one of the most destructive drugs to your health,

01:13:46 Speaker_05
to relationships and families, to societies, how many alcoholics, how many drunk driving accidents, how many drunk people murdered other people. There's just horrible consequences of alcohol, but I completely support alcohol being legal.

01:14:00 Speaker_05
But we have learned how to consume alcohol as a culture.

01:14:03 Speaker_02
What about what happened in Oregon? You know, like Oregon, they legalized it, and now they unlegalize it?

01:14:09 Speaker_05
Well, first of all, they were already off the rails, okay? This is not like legalizing drugs in San Francisco in the year 2000. It's a completely different scenario. So you have these people that are really

01:14:29 Speaker_05
they're accustomed to tents and subsidizing drug addicts and they're accustomed to this very bizarre breakdown of civil society where you're seeing open-air drug markets and everyone's fine with it and it's somehow or another

01:14:45 Speaker_05
kind and compassionate to allow this to take place everywhere. And that's what you have in Portland, right? Portland is probably one of the most liberal cities that we have, the most leftist cities that we have.

01:14:57 Speaker_05
So for Oregon to do it that way, I think it's a

01:15:01 Speaker_05
Like an awesome libertarian notion to say, you know what we shouldn't Make any of these things a crime These are personal choices and you can make good personal choices or bad ones and we'll have everything but the problem is the fabric of society the the encouragement of discipline and of hard work and of accomplishment had been eroded to the point where accomplishment meant that there was something wrong with you and

01:15:27 Speaker_05
Like if you were a person that was eat the rich tax the rich if you're a person that had accomplished something great It wasn't because of some extraordinary effort you put in even if it was it was you did something to fuck over other people and that's the only way you get rich in this world and it's just

01:15:43 Speaker_05
Bizarre and it permeated Portland So when you introduce free heroin to that like you're gonna get more problems It's just and you're subsidizing people for living on the streets, which they do I mean I I watched this interview where they were talking to these people in the Pacific Northwest where they moved there Specifically so they could be homeless because they knew that they get money and they there's no incentive to get out of those tents There's no incentive this free food and free drugs and they give you money

01:16:12 Speaker_02
And they're like, okay, right so that didn't fail because of the actual drug policy, right?

01:16:16 Speaker_05
But more of the others social policy, I think Have you ever heard of dr. Carl Hart? No, he's a professor. Is he at? Columbia I believe he's at Columbia

01:16:28 Speaker_05
Carl Hart was a straight chemist, like a guy studying chemistry and studying these substances in Colombia. And he was a clinical researcher. And along the way, he started realizing that our

01:16:46 Speaker_05
our understanding of these drugs and the pros and cons of them had been flavored by propaganda heavily, particularly the sweeping act of 1970 that made almost everything illegal, which was really to target civil rights groups and anti-war people.

01:17:02 Speaker_05
And so this was during the Nixon administration, they made a bunch of things that were psychedelics,

01:17:07 Speaker_02
MKUltra, is that when that happened?

01:17:09 Speaker_05
Well, MKUltra was actually before that. It was when they were experimenting with people, particularly with LSD. So when they started doing this, they made everything illegal.

01:17:20 Speaker_05
And now the only way you can get any of these things is through illegal sources. So you're getting them through the cartels. So if we don't have the ability to legalize things. And the problem with legalization, there's no good answer here.

01:17:38 Speaker_05
So to keep things illegal, you're going to have fentanyl overdoses. I know people have lost their children. I know people have lost their brothers and sisters to this. It's a horrible thing that happens.

01:17:50 Speaker_05
you're also going to get heroin overdoses if it's legal. So Jesus Christ. And you're going to get more people to try it because it's legal. But it's just like prohibition during the 1920s, or the 1930s rather.

01:18:02 Speaker_05
When they had that, what they did was they enabled the mob. And they enabled organized crime, and that was the rise of Al Capone, and that was the rise of the moonshiners.

01:18:13 Speaker_05
And you essentially, you always had a demand, and the people that were willing to supply that demand were criminals. And they were criminals in this country. We're empowering criminals that are essentially running Mexico, which is bizarre.

01:18:26 Speaker_05
I know during the latest election, how many assassinations were there? Was it 37 or 35? During their latest elections in Mexico, there was at least 35 assassinations.

01:18:40 Speaker_02
Are there European countries that do this well? Portugal.

01:18:44 Speaker_05
Portugal's decriminalized everything and they saw a massive decrease in HIV Imagine massive decrease in drug addiction and all sorts of other things. I don't know what the long-term study is on that 37 37 37 assassinated candidates.

01:19:00 Speaker_05
I mean you have to play ball with the cartel over there and you know, just like you had to play ball with the mob in the 1930s. You have to play ball. They have the guns and they're really mean and they'll do whatever the fuck they want to you.

01:19:14 Speaker_05
The 2021 midterms when 36 candidates were killed.

01:19:18 Speaker_00
Oh my God.

01:19:18 Speaker_05
Jeez.

01:19:19 Speaker_00
Oh my God. Jeez.

01:19:21 Speaker_05
Yeah, it's wild down there. That is a direct result of having trillions of dollars being made by selling illegal drugs, and made most of them to sell to America. I'm sure they sell them to other places as well.

01:19:36 Speaker_02
And it's all fentanyl, or is it psychedelics?

01:19:38 Speaker_05
Oh, it's all kinds of things. No, I don't think there's a lot of money in that. The real money's in meth, cocaine. They have a problem with illegal marijuana that's grown in the United States on national forest land.

01:19:52 Speaker_05
Because what happened is especially in California my friend John Norris He wrote a book called a hidden war and he was a fish and game officer and you know basically wanted to be the guy that like checks your fishing license like great job you're out in the outdoors and It is a movie I'm sure they're probably doing a movie on it but in one day they find this creek that has dried up and they think that perhaps a

01:20:20 Speaker_01
Oh, they diverted the water.

01:20:21 Speaker_05
Someone's diverted the water. They thought it was a farmer that had done something inappropriate or whatever. So they follow the creek up and they find this illegal grow-up that's run by the cartel.

01:20:30 Speaker_05
And then they become a tactical unit and they have Belgian Malinois and bulletproof vests and machine guns. The whole thing's crazy. And they get in shootouts with the cartel in national forest land.

01:20:42 Speaker_05
Because it's a misdemeanor to grow pot illegally in a state where pot is legal. So California has legal marijuana. You can go to any store anywhere, use credit cards, it's open free market. If you follow the rules, you can open up a store.

01:20:59 Speaker_05
But if you don't follow the rules, you can sell it illegally and it's just a misdemeanor.

01:21:04 Speaker_02
I wanted to learn about marijuana, the market. But you can't process the money, I think.

01:21:09 Speaker_05
Some states like I know in Colorado. It was a real problem and in Colorado. They had to do everything in cash It's like Breaking Bad like bricks of cash and they were using mercenaries there.

01:21:20 Speaker_05
They're essentially using you know military contractors to run the money back and forth to the bank because you had to bring the bank money in bulk and

01:21:30 Speaker_05
So you'd have a million dollars in an armored car and a bunch of guys tailing the car in front of the car, and they're driving it to the bank, and everyone knows there's a million dollars in that car. So you have to really be fortified.

01:21:44 Speaker_05
And so it was very sketchy for a lot of people. I don't know what the current condition in Colorado is now. I don't know if they still have to do it that way.

01:21:54 Speaker_02
A couple of companies, I remember, the reason I know this is a guy came and pitched me on some business and he was like the software for all that.

01:22:04 Speaker_02
I think the company went public and I just realized it just went sideways because nobody wanted to touch it because they didn't want to build rails.

01:22:13 Speaker_02
for that economy, which didn't make much sense seeing as, to me at least, just because if the laws say it's legal, then it should all be treated equally. But then the problem, I think I remember them telling me, was that federally it's still gray.

01:22:27 Speaker_05
Yeah, it's great, and they're trying to diminish that. The latest steps during the Biden administration is to change it to a Schedule 3, and that's a proposal. That would help, but really it should be just like alcohol.

01:22:41 Speaker_05
It should be something that you have to be 21 years old to buy, you should have to have an ID, and we should educate people how to use it responsibly, and we should also pay attention to

01:22:49 Speaker_05
whoever the fuck is growing it and make sure you're not going wacky. There's people that are botanists that are out of their mind potheads that are just 24-7 hitting bongs and they're making stuff that'll put you on Mars without Elon Musk.

01:23:05 Speaker_02
The problem that somebody raised, I read this in an article, was you need to make it more legal than it is today so that you can get folks to put some version of a nutritional label on the thing and show intensity, right?

01:23:21 Speaker_02
Because the intensity is not regulated. Right.

01:23:23 Speaker_05
Well, they do regulate it in California. If you go to good places in California, let's say this is 39% THC, which is very high. This is 37.

01:23:33 Speaker_05
But then there's also the problem with one thing that marijuana seems to do to some people that alcohol doesn't necessarily. Some people have a propensity for alcoholism and it seems to be genetic.

01:23:45 Speaker_05
But there's a thing that happens with marijuana where people who have a tendency towards schizophrenia Marijuana can push them over the edge and Alex Berenson wrote a great book about this called tell your kids and I I've personally witnessed people who've lost their marbles and I think it's people that have this propensity because one of the things that I think is beneficial about Marijuana in particular and this is some of one of the things that freaks people out is the paranoia

01:24:15 Speaker_05
Right well paranoia is I feel I feel like what it is is a hyper awareness And I think it it pushes down all these boundaries that you've set up all these walls and all these blinders So that you you see the world for what it really is and a lot of people it freaks out But what I think it does is it?

01:24:34 Speaker_05
ultimately makes you more compassionate and kinder and nicer and you realize like in the moment or afterwards afterwards, it's I think it's a tool for Recognizing things that you are conveniently ignoring and You know, my friend Eddie told me about this once he was saying if you're having a bad time and you smoke marijuana You're gonna have a worse time

01:24:57 Speaker_05
Because you're already freaking out. You're already freaking out about something. If you're going through a horrible breakup and you get high, you're like, oh, no one loves me.

01:25:04 Speaker_05
But if you're having a great time with your friends, you'll probably just laugh and be silly, right? Because you're not freaking out about something. You probably you're in a good place mentally, which we should all strive to be in a good place.

01:25:16 Speaker_02
I have this weird psychosomatic

01:25:20 Speaker_02
Guard that developed my father was an alcoholic and I didn't drink at all In my teens in my 20s and mostly in my 30s and then in my mid 30s I started drinking wine and I love wine and I and I think I can handle it and I really enjoy it I love it.

01:25:37 Speaker_02
How did you but I cannot drink hard alcohol the minute that it touches my lips I get severe hiccups and I mean, like debilitatingly bad hiccups. Really? Any kind of alcohol. Do you think it's psychosomatic?

01:25:51 Speaker_02
I think it's completely psychosomatic, because it makes no logical sense. But if the tequila touches my lip, I just start hiccuping like crazy.

01:25:58 Speaker_02
And it's like this weird protective thing that I think my brain has developed, because my dad used to drink some stuff that would make you blind. Like moonshine. It was like 150% proof the guy would just chug it.

01:26:12 Speaker_05
Well, I think there are whiskey connoisseurs, and there is scotch. Old scotch does have a fantastic taste. It's got an interesting, sort of an acquired taste. But there's real wine connoisseurs.

01:26:28 Speaker_01
Wine is incredible.

01:26:29 Speaker_05
Wine is a different animal. The flavor of wine is spectacular. It's the most delicious of all alcohols without being sweet.

01:26:36 Speaker_01
I completely agree with you.

01:26:38 Speaker_05
Yeah, it's a different thing. Like the people that say they're tequila Connoisseurs like shut up. It all tastes like shit.

01:26:44 Speaker_02
It just tastes less like shit the great It's alcohol and it's like then there's some flavor around the alcohol

01:26:52 Speaker_05
Yeah, I drink a glass of wine with a steak and it's like, ah, this wine's fucking great. I totally agree with you. And it puts you in a, like a calm. It relaxes me.

01:27:03 Speaker_05
You don't like want to go drive fucking wild and get crazy and get in a fight when you're drinking wine.

01:27:07 Speaker_02
Exactly. And the amazing thing about wine is you can go on these journeys where, like when I first started to buy wine, I did what every knucklehead does, which is like, oh, if it's expensive, it must be good.

01:27:20 Speaker_02
And you start down that road and it's just so dumb because the amount of money that I spent on stuff that was marginal, but it had a good label and it had a good pedigree,

01:27:31 Speaker_02
And then when you discover and you learn, like I remember like my wife's Italian, so we spent a lot of time in Italy in the summer with our kids. And when we were there, you find these incredible Italian white Chardonnays, okay?

01:27:45 Speaker_02
In the summer, I'm just gonna be honest with you, there is nothing better to drink in the world. It's better than water. If you were like, it's cold, it's refreshing, it's got a great bouquet.

01:27:56 Speaker_02
But these bottles are 40, 50, 60, 80, maybe maximum 100 euros, max. And then you'll spend $1,000 on some stupid white burgundy from France, and it tastes like half of it. The other great example of this is Chateau Petrus.

01:28:14 Speaker_02
I don't want to get in trouble with the Chateau Petrus guys but I'll just be honest. Those bottles cost 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 thousand. You see some in restaurants, 19 thousand. I've never bought one.

01:28:24 Speaker_02
I've tasted it once because in Vegas I had a host and once he gave me a thing. He says, Chamath, you can use this for like your dinner. And I'm like, well, is there a cap? And he's like, this time, no cap.

01:28:39 Speaker_02
And first I was like, God, I must have lost a lot of money last time. When they say no cap, I was like, so then I said, fuck it, I'm just gonna try this. So I went to Caesars, and it was like four or $5,000.

01:28:55 Speaker_02
I mean, I would never buy this in a normal, but I got it because it was free. Joe's okay. All this buildup in my mind, this is, oh my God, this is going to be ethereal. It's going to be ambrosia. It was not ambrosia.

01:29:09 Speaker_02
Whereas you can find these other ones that are made by folks that just put their entire lives into it. You taste the whole story. I just think it's incredible.

01:29:20 Speaker_05
But it's a weird status thing, the expensive wine. It's just like Cuban cigars.

01:29:25 Speaker_02
It's really dumb.

01:29:26 Speaker_05
Yeah, it's a weird thing.

01:29:27 Speaker_02
The real skill is being able to know price value. And when you know it, it's so satisfying because it's like, oh, this is just delicious. And then when your friends enjoy it, they're like, oh my God, this is delicious.

01:29:40 Speaker_02
And I'm like, yeah, that's 80 bucks. How? And I'm like, well, it's very hard to find. So then the skill is like, it's funny, I'll tell you, this is how bad wine has gotten for me.

01:29:51 Speaker_02
Meaning like, I love the story, I love the people, I wanna support the industry, so I went and I registered for an alcohol license at the ABC in California. Because I was tired and frustrated of trying to buy retail.

01:30:08 Speaker_02
Because you have to go through folks that have their own point of view. And I was like, well, if we just become, you know, we as in like me and a friend of mine. And so we set up a thing. We set up a little, I filed the paperwork.

01:30:24 Speaker_02
And it's called like, you know, J Wine LLC, you know, my friend, me and Joshua. And we're able to negotiate directly with the wineries. And we're able to get it from wholesalers in Europe, or in South Africa, or in Australia.

01:30:42 Speaker_02
And it just allows us to buy a bottle, try it, if we really like it. Thursday nights at my house is always poker.

01:30:50 Speaker_02
We serve it to our friends, they like it, then we can buy a couple cases I can share with my friends, and you know, you get it at wholesale. It's a great little hack.

01:30:56 Speaker_05
Is there a limitation, like is there a certain specific amount that you have to buy?

01:31:01 Speaker_02
No, I look like a retail store. I could be like Amazon.

01:31:05 Speaker_05
And so a retail store could just buy a few bottles?

01:31:07 Speaker_02
They could buy a case, they could buy a few bottles. That's a little bit harder, so you have to have a more personal relationship. But then the really good stuff, you can buy a few cases and then pass them on to your friends.

01:31:21 Speaker_02
I think wine's incredible, and with food it's incredible.

01:31:23 Speaker_05
But when I hear people that are going to open up their own wine label, I'm like, oh, good lord. How much do you know about wine? Like, oh, I'm going to start a wine business. Like, what?

01:31:34 Speaker_02
I went to a couple of these wineries, and I just asked them, just out of like, just explain to me how you got there. And all I could think of was, man, this is way too complicated. But these folks, it's like animal husbandry.

01:31:49 Speaker_02
They're breeding this vine with this vine, but then they're going to cleave off this little bit. So it's a breeding program over 10 and 20 and 30 years. And it's like, this is really complicated.

01:32:01 Speaker_05
Oh, yeah. They do weird stuff. They'll splice avocado trees with, what is that, nut? pistachios. So they'll take avocado trees and they splice them with pistachios to make the tree more sturdy.

01:32:17 Speaker_05
You can take two different species of tree and if you cut them sideways and splice them together, they'll grow.

01:32:23 Speaker_02
A friend of mine started a company that's making potatoes, and he makes these ginormous potatoes like this. It's an incredible thing, because the yield is through the roof.

01:32:33 Speaker_02
His, I think, vision is, I'll be able to feed the world in a cheaper and more abundant way. But it's all this engineering. He hacked the chromosome of the potato.

01:32:45 Speaker_01
Oh my god.

01:32:46 Speaker_02
That's incredible. And it generates a huge potato, and it generates a seed. I didn't know this, but potatoes don't have seeds. In order to plant more potatoes, you chop up the potato into quarters or eighths, and you stick the potato into the soil.

01:33:02 Speaker_02
Oh, he's playing God. And so he's like, no, this is dumb. I'm going to make a huge potato, and I'm going to have the potato have a seed. Then I'll just take the seed, and I'll plant it in the ground.

01:33:11 Speaker_05
So when you usually do it, do you have to have that potato and they have to soak it so the sprout comes out of it and then plant it? Is that what they do? I don't know, but I mean... Because I've seen that before.

01:33:21 Speaker_01
Yeah.

01:33:22 Speaker_05
I've always wondered how they're doing that.

01:33:25 Speaker_02
I don't know. But he's going after potatoes and then he wants to go after fruit. I love fruit, but fruit tilts me because every time I go to the store,

01:33:36 Speaker_02
Sometimes like you'll get like their seasons were like, you know, like white nectarines and white peaches Maybe like one of the most incredible fruits ever created, but if you get it in a bad season, it's just like unedible Yeah, they're dull.

01:33:47 Speaker_02
They're dull.

01:33:48 Speaker_02
They're terrible mangoes are the same I love mangoes and when you see like these mangoes in the summertime like I don't know where Europe gets their mangoes But this is probably one of the best features of Europe like they have these mangoes that are just like this Well, they're organic too.

01:34:03 Speaker_02
They're just they're just incredible

01:34:04 Speaker_05
Well, they still have real tomatoes. Like, you have to search for real tomatoes here. Like, if you want an heirloom tomato, that's an actual tomato. The tomatoes that we have are just these freaks.

01:34:16 Speaker_02
You know, I, um... Have you ever worn, um... Glucose monitor? Glucose monitor?

01:34:20 Speaker_05
No, haven't.

01:34:21 Speaker_02
I, um, I wore one for 90 days. And my wife, when she was younger... Well, she runs a pharma company, so she has a...

01:34:31 Speaker_02
proclivity for science, obviously, and she thinks about a lot of this stuff scientifically, but she also broke her back when she was 11. So she's very sensitive to inflammation. So she's hacked a lot of food so that she can minimize inflammation.

01:34:47 Speaker_02
I wore this thing, and I was totally blown away. The things that I thought were healthy for me my body was like, this is radioactive. Like what stuff?

01:34:58 Speaker_02
So like the way that I ate rice or quinoa, I would have like a small amount of rice, or I would have brown rice, or I'd have black rice, or I'd have quinoa because I was like, oh, it's more protein. It didn't really matter.

01:35:11 Speaker_02
It had the same, my body reacted with this massive sugar spike. The minute I cooked it off, put it in the fridge, waited 24 hours and ate it the next day, No glycemic load whatsoever. Same with potatoes. Potatoes.

01:35:27 Speaker_02
I found that pasta, if I made it more al dente than what I was used to, no glycemic load. And the problem that's frustrating- More al dente, meaning less cooked? Less cooked. Has a totally different reaction in my body than if I make it soft and smushy.

01:35:44 Speaker_02
Huh. So I've trained my body to have really al dente pasta, and I see that the glycemic load is much lower. I think just the point is like the food supply in the United States, I think it's the most precarious it's ever been.

01:36:02 Speaker_02
It's brutally hard to figure this out. I mean, is everybody supposed to get a glucose monitor? and then figure out what little things, you know, trigger insulin spikes. Well, that's not possible.

01:36:14 Speaker_02
And then, even if you do find out, how do you get it in a cheap, affordable way? I mean, no wonder, like, everybody's, you know, really struggling with this.

01:36:24 Speaker_05
Have you ever worn a glucose monitor when you were in Italy? No, I wore it here. I'd like to know, because there's a difference that the way my body responds. I can tell you how my body feels.

01:36:36 Speaker_02
If I take a picture, like, I mean, I try to work out, and I take pretty detailed, like, what's my BMI, what's my muscle mass, what's my fat percentage, and I always take those readings right before I go.

01:36:49 Speaker_02
And when I look afterwards, and I don't do anything when I'm there. You know, I swim in the sea when I can, like when I'm on vacation or whatever. I walk a lot, but nothing else. No weights, no nothing.

01:37:05 Speaker_02
my muscle mass stays the same, my fat percentage goes down, I look healthier, and I feel really great. And all I do is I just eat what's in front of me. I don't think about quantities, whatever.

01:37:25 Speaker_02
But when I'm back in the United States, so I get to be there, call it six weeks a year, right? But when I'm back in the United States, I have to go back on lockdown.

01:37:34 Speaker_02
Because like a lot of people, you know, I had this thing, like if you look at a picture of me in Sri Lanka, I look like old Dave Chappelle. I was like this. I was just a total stick figure.

01:37:52 Speaker_02
Within one year of being in North America, in this case in Canada, when you look at the school pictures, I was fat. Couldn't explain it to you.

01:38:00 Speaker_05
And it's just the difference in the food system.

01:38:02 Speaker_02
And my parents were making the same things because they wanted to have that comfort of what they were used to. I don't know if it was the food supply or not, but, you know. It has to be. It has to be. It has to be.

01:38:14 Speaker_05
Everybody says the same thing.

01:38:15 Speaker_02
And then my whole family has struggled with it, you know? So I think that there's something, and then when I go now to Italy as a different reference example, it's like, it's the best shape of my life.

01:38:28 Speaker_05
Yeah, you feel completely different. Even when you eat things like pizza over there, you don't feel like you ate a brick. I've eaten pizza here and I love it, but when I'm over, I'm like, What did you do? What did you do? Like you ate a brick.

01:38:39 Speaker_05
But over there, it's just food. It tastes great. The pasta doesn't bother you. Nothing bothers you. It's just whatever they're doing. And there's many things. Just one of them, they're not using enriched flour.

01:38:51 Speaker_05
And another thing is they have heirloom flour, so it hasn't been maximized for the most amount of gluten.

01:38:56 Speaker_02
I'm curious to see what Bobby does if Trump wins in this whole make America healthy again. I don't exactly know what his plans are.

01:39:04 Speaker_05
Yeah. What's possible? How much can you really affect with regulation? How much can you really bring to light? And what are we going to learn about our food system?

01:39:14 Speaker_05
I mean, even Canada, one of the things about the hearings that they just had was they were comparing Lucky Charms that they sell in the United States that are very brightly colored versus Lucky Charms they sell in Canada.

01:39:25 Speaker_05
Completely different looking product because Canada in Canada.

01:39:29 Speaker_05
It's illegal to use those dyes that we use Ubiquitously, right and those dyes are terrible for you We know they're terrible for you in Canada knows they're terrible for you, which is why they're illegal up there The food tastes the same.

01:39:40 Speaker_05
It still sucks. It's still bad for you It's still covered in sugar, but at least doesn't have that fucking poison that just makes it blue or red. I

01:39:48 Speaker_02
And it's impossible to teach my kids healthy eating habits as a result of this. The food in the United States, it's everywhere and it's beating into you that this is a cheap way of getting caloric intake.

01:40:03 Speaker_02
And it is full of just all these stuff you can't pronounce.

01:40:07 Speaker_05
It's garbage, yeah. It's all garbage. And it's so common.

01:40:12 Speaker_05
And then if you're in what they would call a food desert, if you're in a place that only has fast food, my God, your odds of being metabolically healthy if you're poor and you're living in a place that's a food desert. It's impossible. It's fucked.

01:40:25 Speaker_06
It's impossible.

01:40:25 Speaker_05
You're fucked. It's too hard. And it's also very expensive, which is even crazier. It's so expensive to eat well and to eat clean and make sure that you don't have any additives and garbage in your food.

01:40:36 Speaker_02
Do you remember in the 90s and 2000s where what we were told was fat was bad? And you would see sugar-free, and I would just buy it. I was like, sugar-free, I'm doing the healthy thing here. This is great.

01:40:52 Speaker_05
Margarine.

01:40:53 Speaker_02
Margarine. Or then I would see fat-free, and I'd be like, oh, I'll do that. And it turned out all this stuff was just

01:40:59 Speaker_05
Well, it's such a small amount of people that affected that. That's what's so terrifying.

01:41:05 Speaker_05
There's a small amount of people who bribed these scientists to falsify data so that they could blame all these coronary artery diseases and heart diseases on saturated fat when it was really sugar that was causing all these problems.

01:41:23 Speaker_05
And we had a very dysfunctional understanding of health for the longest time. The food pyramid was all fucked up. The bottom of the food pyramid was all bread and carbs. You know, it's so nuts and just made a bunch of like really sloppy humans.

01:41:38 Speaker_05
And you could see it in the beaches, the photos from the 1960s versus looking at people in the 2000s.

01:41:44 Speaker_02
Have you had Casey and Callie Means on?

01:41:46 Speaker_05
They're coming on, yeah.

01:41:48 Speaker_02
They have an incredible story. Should I say it, or we can just? Sure, yeah.

01:41:52 Speaker_02
They have this incredible story that they tell about what happened, and what they say is in the 80s, when you had these mergers, one of the mega mergers that happened was Tobacco Company with Food Company. There was two of them.

01:42:09 Speaker_02
And a lot of the scientists started to focus some of their energy on taking that skill, I'll just put that in quotes, of making something very addictive and transposing it to food, right?

01:42:21 Speaker_02
It's like, okay, if I'm at RJR and I'm used to making cigarettes, how do I think about structurally building up something that wants you to eat more, but now instead of smoking, instead of a cigarette, it's a Twinkie or whatever?

01:42:34 Speaker_02
And a lot of the food science that we have in America is built on the back of a bunch of these mega mergers where you had these scientists go and build super, quote unquote, addictive food.

01:42:46 Speaker_02
And that was a failure of the, I mean, obviously it was a failure of the capital markets, but it was a failure of public health.

01:42:52 Speaker_05
Well, it's a failure of our regulatory process. It's a failure of our exposing the public to this and making sure that whatever this is is labeled the same way cigarettes are.

01:43:08 Speaker_05
Because if you want to buy cigarettes, you can buy them today, but it's going to have a big warning that tells you this can kill you.

01:43:13 Speaker_06
Totally.

01:43:15 Speaker_05
Arguably, sugar is probably as difficult to kick as nicotine is, and there's a lot of other problems.

01:43:24 Speaker_02
I smoked when I was younger. I found it much easier to stop smoking than it was for me to cut out sugar. Wow. Cutting out sugar is basically impossible.

01:43:34 Speaker_05
It's very hard.

01:43:35 Speaker_02
You encounter it everywhere.

01:43:37 Speaker_05
I have a friend who has diabetes, and he got type 2 diabetes, and he's thin, my friend Duncan. And one of the things he found out is when he stopped eating, it was all just eating too much sugar.

01:43:46 Speaker_05
When he stopped eating sugar, he's like, oh my god, I have so much energy. Like, this is what I'm supposed to feel like? He had thought that it was just life. Like he's in his 40s now, he's starting to get... Lethargic. Yeah. I need a nap.

01:44:01 Speaker_05
And he didn't realize he was poisoning himself.

01:44:03 Speaker_00
Yeah.

01:44:04 Speaker_05
And that's what most people are doing.

01:44:07 Speaker_05
Most people out there that are drinking regular soda and they're eating candy and you're eating burgers with sugar in the bun and bullshit and bread and french fries cooked in seed oils, you're just poisoning yourself.

01:44:21 Speaker_02
You should fact check this, because I may get the number wrong, but there was something that came out very recently about the percentage of the U.S. food stamp system that goes to soda. And it was like 10% of the total budget, or?

01:44:36 Speaker_05
Something nutty like that, yeah.

01:44:37 Speaker_02
It's like some ginormous amount of money is just basically giving folks sugar water. And you wonder why now the solution is just to give everybody on the back end of it Ozempic.

01:44:49 Speaker_05
It's also like, let's be real, that's not food. It's something you put in your mouth, but you can't buy cigarettes with food stamps. So if you can't buy cigarettes with food stamps, why should you be able to buy something that's really bad for you?

01:45:03 Speaker_05
I mean, what would change if we said food stamps, we're going to actually increase the amount that you get, but we're going to regulate what you can buy. And you have to buy all the things from the outside of the store.

01:45:14 Speaker_02
I don't even think you have to regulate it. Think of what has happened because of companies like Uber Eats and DoorDash as an example. What have they done? And I'll tell you why I think this is important.

01:45:27 Speaker_02
Those guys have gone out, and Cloud Kitchens, there's three companies. they have bought up every single kind of warehouse in every part of every city and suburb in America. And what they put in there are these things that they call ghost kitchens.

01:45:44 Speaker_02
So that when you launch the app and a lot of the times when you get a drink from Starbucks, it's not coming from the actual Starbucks down the street, it's coming from a ghost kitchen. Why?

01:45:54 Speaker_02
Because they centralize all the orders and it creates an economy of scale. Why am I telling you this? I think that there is a way for food stamps to sit on top of that infrastructure and just deliver food.

01:46:07 Speaker_05
But the problem is people, especially people that don't know or care, want that sugar water. You know, like the choices are... I understand. Yeah, you're going to have people that choose that Big Mac because it is delicious.

01:46:23 Speaker_02
Yeah, and I think that they are delicious. And once a year I have a Big Mac.

01:46:28 Speaker_02
But I think if you're going to tie it to something like a government subsidy, at least the government should have a conversation with themselves that says, well, we can ship them all of this healthy food and, you know, change a bunch of boundary conditions in these folks' lives.

01:46:46 Speaker_02
I've seen it, I know what it's like to be overweight. It sucks. Your self-confidence is negative one. The way I dressed, the way I felt, it just took an enormous amount of work to overcome it, and you're still left with it.

01:47:02 Speaker_02
Then there's the physical pains. Then there's the internal issues that you create for yourself. This is not a win.

01:47:08 Speaker_02
And so I get it, that the hamburger tastes good, but this is where the government, I think, has a responsibility to say, look, we're gonna spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year, so let's spend it in a smart way.

01:47:21 Speaker_02
We're not gonna give you pop and soda anymore. and we're gonna start introducing some fruit, some vegetables, some fiber. Why can't you do that?

01:47:31 Speaker_02
That's a very reasonable thing to do, especially if on the same hand, the other hand of the government is gonna go and negotiate insulin prices and metformin prices and GLP-1s.

01:47:42 Speaker_05
Right. That is the issue. See what Bobby Kennedy was talking about with these GLP-1s? He was comparing the amount of money spent on GLP-1s and what you could give every obese American, that you could give them free healthy food and a gym membership.

01:48:00 Speaker_02
For 10%, I think. I think what Bobby said is the cost of GLP-1s current course and speed would be $3 trillion a year.

01:48:07 Speaker_05
Isn't that amazing? Just something that controls your appetite.

01:48:12 Speaker_02
And for $300 billion, you can give everybody food. By the way, you can use this ghost kitchen infrastructure to give the food in a prepped way. So you can even make life super simple for them.

01:48:24 Speaker_02
The idea that you would spend, we don't have three trillion to spend. But we have a responsibility to make sure that people don't kill themselves with food.

01:48:33 Speaker_05
But now there's an industry that's making three trillion dollars by giving people these GLP-1s. And the problem is, just like every other industry, once it starts making money, it does not want to stop.

01:48:45 Speaker_02
And by the way, I think that they should be allowed to make money. But what I'm saying is in a free market, every actor is allowed to act rationally. And actually, what you want is everybody to have their own incentives and to act naturally.

01:49:01 Speaker_02
That's when you get the best outcome. Because if you're acting with some shadow agenda, you're not going to necessarily do the right thing. So my point is in this example,

01:49:11 Speaker_02
The government's job in this narrow example is to get the best healthcare outcome. Because if they're doing any form of long-term planning, it's pretty obvious.

01:49:22 Speaker_02
Like we are hurtling to a brick wall on this healthcare issue with respect to people's health. You don't have a solution.

01:49:31 Speaker_02
The only solution cannot be to medicate and then triple and quadruple the budget deficit that we already don't have a path to pay down.

01:49:40 Speaker_05
Right. Well, the only other thing that I could think is if there was some sort of a way that would be effective at establishing discipline other than just promoting it, like

01:49:54 Speaker_05
I could conceive of, especially when you're dealing with something like Neuralink or some sort of a new way of programming the mind where it just changes whatever the behavior pattern is that accepts these foods as choices.

01:50:13 Speaker_05
like lobotomize your appetite.

01:50:15 Speaker_02
That would be a very dystopian place.

01:50:19 Speaker_05
Sketchy to fucking be an early adopter.

01:50:21 Speaker_02
If you want the subsidy, you need to get this brain implant. Would not be a good place.

01:50:24 Speaker_05
That would be bad.

01:50:25 Speaker_02
That would be very bad.

01:50:26 Speaker_05
That's worst case scenario. Best case scenario is you just have

01:50:31 Speaker_05
like a national scale promotion of health and wellness and abandonment of this body positivity nonsense and fat doctors and people that are telling you that every weight is a healthy weight and all food is food and to think otherwise is discriminatory, which you're hearing from people.

01:50:49 Speaker_05
And by the way, that stuff is funded. And that's what people need to know. That nonsense is actually funded.

01:50:56 Speaker_05
They pay people to be influencers, and they're getting paid by these food companies to say these nonsense things that are scientifically factually incorrect. They're not true. It is not healthy in any way, shape, or form to be obese.

01:51:12 Speaker_05
And when they tell you that you can be metabolically healthy and still have fat, it's OK. It's not OK. It's not okay. That's just not true. And is that fat shaming?

01:51:21 Speaker_05
You can call it whatever the fuck you want, but it doesn't change what it does to the human body. And it doesn't make someone better if you don't make them feel bad about being robustly unhealthy.

01:51:33 Speaker_02
Well, it's an enormous disservice to folks if we don't expose an alternative path. Okay, we're spending this much money. We spend so much money in all kinds of random stuff. Like just a simple example that we saw this past week.

01:51:50 Speaker_02
$50 billion spent between rural broadband and chargers. We have no rural broadband and we have three chargers. No, this is the data. That's 50 billion. Okay, that's not the $300 billion that Bobby... Explain that, what you mean by that.

01:52:09 Speaker_02
So, there was a... So, in Congress, when they come together to pass these bills, sometimes what happens is there's a lot of horse trading, right?

01:52:20 Speaker_02
And you get what's called the Christmas tree bill, which is like everybody gets to hang something off the Christmas tree. Right. And the crazy part of the United States is these little baubles now are $10 billion here, $50 billion there, whatever.

01:52:36 Speaker_02
We passed, a few years ago, something that was meant to get rural broadband into thousands of people's homes. And initially, it was given to SpaceX, and Starlink specifically. And then I think it was pulled back.

01:52:54 Speaker_02
And they said, you know what, there's a better, quote unquote, better way to do it. And there's other folks that decided that the better option would just be to, like, lay fiber. Now, I'm just going to — this is not a judgment.

01:53:10 Speaker_02
I'm just going to show you something. The thing is, like, if you were, like, in Kansas from here, okay, between here and Kansas is, like, a big distance, right? It's like this. When you're in orbit, it's just here. It's just infinitely shorter distance.

01:53:28 Speaker_02
So just at a practical level, solving that problem technically is way better through satellites. Fine. They make, I think, what was the right decision, they unmake it, and so they say, we're gonna go and figure out a way to lay fiber, whatever.

01:53:44 Speaker_02
They've laid zero fiber. So there's these thousands of people that were promised broadband that you can get for basically $100 a month or less now, and instead they're spending upwards of thousands and thousands per home and haven't delivered any.

01:54:00 Speaker_05
Isn't it like $42 billion?

01:54:03 Speaker_02
That's 42. And then the other example was a $7 billion program to install EV chargers, $7 billion, and they've managed to install three.

01:54:14 Speaker_02
So all I'm saying is, if you add the two together, that 50 billion, that's one-sixth of what Bobby Kennedy was talking about in terms of giving people organic food.

01:54:23 Speaker_02
So maybe we can't give everybody organic food, but you can get tens of millions of people, right? Start with the 40 million people that's on Snap. You can get maybe 10 million of those people. Get them organic food right away.

01:54:37 Speaker_02
So there's all of this waste. All we gotta do is just focus a little bit, take some of these dollars that are just falling into the seat cushions, it seems like, and just reallocate it somewhat intelligently into the things that really matter.

01:54:52 Speaker_05
It seems worse than falling into the seat cushions if it's 42 billion people and none of them have received internet access. That's really, really insane.

01:55:00 Speaker_00
$42 billion, nobody's got that.

01:55:01 Speaker_05
I should say, I used the Starlink Mini this past week in Utah in the mountains. It's amazing. It's amazing. It's the size of this book. It's amazing. It's crazy. It literally fits in a small laptop case. My friend couldn't believe that was it.

01:55:17 Speaker_05
I was like, this is it.

01:55:18 Speaker_02
I got a very early one and I used to carry it around in a laundry basket. It was incredible. And then when you see what they've done in a couple of years, from this thing that was a little bit bulky. It is so beautiful and simple. And you've seen it.

01:55:37 Speaker_02
You just plug it in, and it auto starts to rotate, figures out where it is. The app comes up, it shows you this speed, and then you're just going. And I've used it in all kinds of situations, like where I'm traveling, I bring it with me.

01:55:53 Speaker_02
It's never failed. And then I think, man, this is like, it's 100 bucks? It's less than 100 bucks? It's crazy. And then in a year or two, you'll be able to run your cell phone over this thing? Yeah. This is crazy.

01:56:05 Speaker_05
Yeah, in a year or two, it'll probably be straight to your cell phone, and you won't need that dish anymore. But right now, the dish is a small iPad. And you just sit it down in a field. And we plugged a cord to it. You don't even have to have a cord.

01:56:17 Speaker_05
It is a battery that comes with it.

01:56:19 Speaker_02
So how much do you think it really takes? to give every American just a Starlink dish. Pretty fucking cheap. It's very cheap. Well, it wouldn't be $42 billion. I can guarantee you that.

01:56:31 Speaker_02
And by the way, the cost of that would basically fall through the floor if you put in an order for 50 million of these units. Right. You know? Right. SpaceX would make them for like $8. Right. You know what I mean?

01:56:42 Speaker_01
And it's fast internet too, which is even crazier.

01:56:44 Speaker_00
Yeah.

01:56:44 Speaker_01
Yeah. There's all of this stuff that

01:56:50 Speaker_02
we should do, we just need a few folks, I don't know, that can either course correct or just can shine a light on it.

01:56:58 Speaker_02
I mean, it's like this thing where I'm like so optimistic, married to enormous fear and like, you know, just like a little, I kind of go back and forth between these things.

01:57:10 Speaker_05
Well, let me paint the ultimate dystopian solution. Part of our problem is we have corruption, we have what you were talking about with deals, sort of like the border wall deal had money in it for Ukraine.

01:57:27 Speaker_05
There's all these weird deals, those bills that don't make any sense. How did you add all this stuff and why is this 2,000 pages? How many people signed it and actually read it? AI government. AI government solves all those problems.

01:57:40 Speaker_05
AI government is not corrupt. AI government just works literally for the people.

01:57:45 Speaker_05
And instead of having all these state representatives and all these bullshit artists that pretend to be working on their truck and they don't know what the fuck they're doing, they're just doing it for an ad, you don't have any of that anymore.

01:57:54 Speaker_05
Now everything's governed with AI. The problem is who's controlling the AI? And is there some sort of an ultimate regulatory body that makes sure that the AI isn't biased or tainted?

01:58:05 Speaker_02
I think there's a step before that which is a lot more palatable. I think the thing with, I thought about your version, and the problem that you state is the key problem, which is how is this model trained?

01:58:18 Speaker_02
Who got their hands on that core stuff, the weights and the values of that? Who decides? And at some point, there is already today in AI models a level of human override. It's just a natural facet of how these things are.

01:58:34 Speaker_02
There's a way to reinforce the learning based on what you say and what I say. It's a key part of how an AI model becomes smart.

01:58:43 Speaker_02
It starts off as primordial, and then Joe and Chamath and all these other people are clicking and saying, yes, that's a good answer, bad answer, ask this question, all this stuff.

01:58:54 Speaker_05
Who are those people so right and it could be gamed as well, right?

01:58:58 Speaker_02
I think I think at scale we haven't figured out we haven't seen it yet But it will be when the incentives are that high and we've seen distortions, right?

01:59:06 Speaker_05
Like the the Gemini AI that was they were asked to make Nazi soldiers. They made these multiracial Nazi Nazi soldiers And that kind of stuff, where it's just like, who are the founding fathers? It's all there's a black guy, right?

01:59:19 Speaker_05
Like, here's a Chinese lady like, okay, we get it. You're not racist. But this is your you're being crazy.

01:59:26 Speaker_02
You're distorting the past.

01:59:27 Speaker_05
Exactly. When you're talking specifically history. I mean, one of them was like a Native American woman was a Nazi soldier. It's like, this is so nuts. So that that is a problem is in that AI is not clean, right?

01:59:40 Speaker_05
It is it's got the greasy fingerprints of modern civilization on it and all of our bizarre ideologies But there's a step before it that I think can create a much better government.

01:59:50 Speaker_02
So it's possible today for example to Understand have you ever done a renovation on your house? Yes. Okay, so you make plans and You go and your architect probably pays an expediter to stand in line in City Hall.

02:00:08 Speaker_02
There's a person that goes and reviews that plan. They give you a bunch of handwritten markups based on their understanding of the building code. You can't use this lead pipe, you need to use aluminum, this window's too small, all this stuff.

02:00:21 Speaker_02
You come back, you revise, you go do this two or three times on average to do a renovation, and then they issue your permits.

02:00:29 Speaker_02
Right now, an AI can actually just ingest all the rules, knows exactly what's allowed and what's not allowed, and they can take your picture and instantly tell you, Joe, fix these 19 things. You fix those things. You go to the city.

02:00:43 Speaker_02
You can show that it maps to all the rules, so you can streamline government. You can also point out where they're making decisions that don't map to what the rules say.

02:00:53 Speaker_02
That, I think, is going to be a really important first step because it allows us to see where maybe this administrative state has grown unwieldy, where you've got to knock some of this stuff back and clean up some of the cruft because there's rules on top of rules and one conflicts with the other.

02:01:10 Speaker_02
I bet you there are things on the books today that are like that. 100%. We have no way of knowing. Right. But I do think an AI can tell you these things and say, just pick which one.

02:01:21 Speaker_02
It's A or it's B. And I think that that starts to cut back a lot of the difficulty in just making progress. Right.

02:01:32 Speaker_05
One of the things that I thought was extraordinary that Elon was getting pushed back on was his idea of making the government more efficient. and that auditing the various programs and finding out how to make them more efficient.

02:01:48 Speaker_05
And a lot of people really freaked out about that. And their main freakout, the main argument from intelligent people that I saw was, what are you going to do? Are you going to fire all these people that are in charge of government?

02:02:01 Speaker_05
I don't think that's the answer for an effective government is to let the same people do the same thing because otherwise you have to fire them. That sounds insane.

02:02:10 Speaker_05
And to say that the government is as efficient as is humanly possible, or even close to it, no one believes that. No rational person believes that. Everyone believes in bureaucracy. Everyone believes there's a lot of nonsense going on.

02:02:24 Speaker_05
Everyone believes that, like, look at the difference between what Elon has been able to accomplish with SpaceX versus what NASA has been doing recently.

02:02:34 Speaker_05
Look at the difference between what they're able to accomplish with Starlink versus this $42 billion program that yielded zero results.

02:02:41 Speaker_05
Look at the difference between all these different things that are done in the private sector when there's competitive marketplace strategies.

02:02:49 Speaker_05
You have to figure out a way to get better and more efficient, and you can't afford to have a bunch of people in your company that are doing nothing. and that are creating red tape and creating bureaucracy and making things harder to progress.

02:03:03 Speaker_05
That's bad for the business. That's the argument for letting private companies take over things.

02:03:09 Speaker_02
By the way, I think that what, and just to build on what you're saying, people jump to this conclusion that like government shouldn't exist. It's not some

02:03:19 Speaker_02
Anarchic thing we're like government's actually very important they Create incentives and then those of us in private industry go out and try to meet those incentives or take advantage of them That's a very normal.

02:03:32 Speaker_02
Okay, and a well-functioning government Creates very good incentives an incredible example of this is in the 1950s Do you know what the GDP of Singapore was no it was the same as the GDP of Jamaica

02:03:51 Speaker_02
And then you fast forward 70 years, and you understand what good governance looks like.

02:03:56 Speaker_05
We actually were talking about Singapore yesterday, how extraordinarily efficient their recycling program is. It's unbelievable. I mean, it's really amazing what they do. They really recycle. They recycle how we think we're recycling. They really do.

02:04:12 Speaker_05
They really separate the plastic. They break it up. They use it to make power. They use it to make road materials. They make building materials out of it.

02:04:19 Speaker_02
They reuse everything. were thrust into a spit of land with no natural resources, they had to become incredibly well-educated and industrious. And so, you know, Lee Kuan Yew was able to create the right incentives for government to do a good job.

02:04:38 Speaker_02
They pay their civil servants incredibly well, but then also for private industry to show up and do the rest. And it works incredibly. You can do that in the United States.

02:04:49 Speaker_02
The thing that we would benefit a lot from is if we could just point out all the ways in which there's either too many laws or laws are conflicting. you can at least have a conversation about batting those back.

02:05:03 Speaker_02
And the second is, if you look inside of private equity, there is one thing that they do which I think the government would hugely benefit from, and it's called zero-based budgeting. And this is an incredibly powerful but boring idea.

02:05:21 Speaker_02
What private equity does when they buy a company, some of them, the best ones, they'll look at next year's budget, and if they say, what should the budget be? Well, guess what's gonna happen, Joe, in your company?

02:05:32 Speaker_02
Everybody runs and says, I need X for this, Y for that, Z for this, and you have this budget that's just ginormous. Instead, what some of the best private equity folks do is say, we're starting with zero. Next year's budget is zero.

02:05:48 Speaker_02
We're spending nothing. Now, let's build it back up meticulously block by block. So somebody comes in. Okay, what is it exactly that you want to do? I want to build an interface that allows ... They start saying something. No. Okay. What do you want to do?

02:06:07 Speaker_02
I want to upgrade the factory so that we can make a more high yield ... Okay. Done. You're in. How much do you need? Okay. One by one by one.

02:06:15 Speaker_02
And if you go and you do that inside the government, what you probably would find is that same group of people would probably enjoy their job a lot more. They'd actually be, their hands would be on the controls in a much more directed way.

02:06:29 Speaker_02
We'd spend a lot less because a lot of this stuff probably just goes by the wayside and we don't even know, you know. And people would just be more able to go and work. You could do what you wanted to do. I could do what I wanted to do.

02:06:43 Speaker_02
Elon could do what he wants to do. There was a thing, I tweeted it out today. He cannot get the FAA to give him a flight permit for Starship 5 and 6. So they're waiting on dry docks, right? They're slow rolling the approval, right?

02:07:08 Speaker_02
It takes him less time to build these starships now than it does to get government approval. That's what he said.

02:07:15 Speaker_02
Meanwhile, the FCC, which is a sister organization to the FAA, fast-tracked the sale of 220 radio stations in part to some folks that were foreign entities right before an election. That touched like 160 million Americans.

02:07:33 Speaker_02
When you look at that, you would say, how can some folks cut through all the red tape and get an answer quickly. How can other folks be waiting around for something that just seems so obvious and so exceptional for America? And there's no good answer.

02:07:54 Speaker_02
I don't know what the answer is. I don't think any of us know.

02:07:59 Speaker_05
No, and then there's just folks that are stuck in space.

02:08:02 Speaker_02
Meanwhile, there's these two people stuck in space.

02:08:05 Speaker_05
Yeah. And and Jamie said they were supposed to be there for how long eight hours? They were supposed to be there for eight hours This was to be quick and they've been there for months. They're gonna be there till February.

02:08:18 Speaker_05
That's so insane They're gonna be there how terrifying must that be I mean I for maybe you and me Eight days this was there for eight days

02:08:32 Speaker_02
I think I would freak out. I think they would, too. How do you not? Well, I read this article where they interviewed them. Now, this could be the party line. I don't know. But they were like, this is great. It's my natural place. I'm happy here.

02:08:45 Speaker_05
Oh, good lord. I can't believe that's real.

02:08:48 Speaker_02
I had a friend of mine who went to space.

02:08:49 Speaker_05
That's what they say to themselves. Keep from going crazy.

02:08:51 Speaker_02
Well, yeah. A friend of mine went to space. The founder of Cirque du Soleil, Guy Laliberté. And he brought a super high... Google talks about like it's already over.

02:09:02 Speaker_04
What?

02:09:02 Speaker_02
But it's still going on. No, it's still going on.

02:09:03 Speaker_04
It says it's until February 21st.

02:09:05 Speaker_02
Yeah, February 2025. If that hasn't happened yet.

02:09:08 Speaker_04
We're stuck in space. It says like if it ended up spending eight months more, there could be more.

02:09:11 Speaker_05
That's just AI. Yeah, it could be way more.

02:09:17 Speaker_02
It could be way, way more.

02:09:18 Speaker_05
That's weird that AI, that's another flaw with AI, right? Read it like that? I wonder what the incentive is for AI to lie to you about that. How does AI not know it's not 2025 yet? We're stuck in space until February of 2025?

02:09:34 Speaker_02
That's just a straight-up error.

02:09:37 Speaker_05
That's a weird error, though. It is a weird error. But these poor people, you know?

02:09:43 Speaker_02
So my friend that was up there said it was incredible. He has this funny story where he was a smoker, still is a smoker, but This was, like, 20 years ago, so he was going up on, like, a Soyuz rocket.

02:09:57 Speaker_02
And he shows up, I guess, in Siberia is where they do the launches. And he was really stressed out because he had to stop smoking and he had to stop drinking and all this stuff.

02:10:09 Speaker_01
And he shows up and the cosmonauts are smoking. They're like, oh, it's totally fine, don't worry. So they smoke in space? No, no, no. I'm saying on the ground while they were trading. Oh, boy.

02:10:17 Speaker_02
So they go up. He does eight days. He comes back down. He took these incredible high-res pictures of all the parts of the Earth. He said it was the most incredible thing. But when you get back, he's like, I was ready to get back.

02:10:29 Speaker_05
Did you see this latest report? There's, like, real controversy about some finding that the James Webb Telescope has discovered. And there's some talk of some large object moving towards us that's course-correcting. This is the weird part about it.

02:10:47 Speaker_05
And there's all these meetings, and so all the kooky UAP people are all over it, saying, Disclosure is imminent. There's a mothership headed towards us. So it gets fun. I don't know what they mean by course correcting. What does that mean?

02:11:03 Speaker_05
And how do they know it wasn't impacted with something else that diverted it?

02:11:07 Speaker_02
It could have been that. It could have just been the gravitational fields. It could have just been an orbital path.

02:11:12 Speaker_05
But they're not telling anybody. There's something going on. Do you think they would tell people? Imagine if there was a giant chunk of steel, of iron rather, that's headed towards us.

02:11:24 Speaker_02
That's a great question. I think the question is, what would we do if we knew?

02:11:28 Speaker_05
Do we have the capability of moving that thing?

02:11:33 Speaker_02
Would the FCC wait five months to give Elon the... I think you'd probably send as many... But see, I mean, it's all a physics problem at that point.

02:11:42 Speaker_05
Right. It's also a problem of breaking it up. Exactly. If it breaks up, then you have smaller pieces that are hitting everywhere instead of one large chunk.

02:11:50 Speaker_02
But by the way, isn't this like the perfect reason why being multi-planetary just makes a lot of sense? Sure. For example, would you get on an airplane if they said, hey, Joe, this is the best airplane in the world. It's the most incredible.

02:12:03 Speaker_02
It's the most luxurious. It has the best weather. You can surf. But there's only one navigation system. And if it goes out, boop. You'd never do that. Would you ever get on that airplane? No. No. So I think we owe it to ourselves to have some redundancy.

02:12:21 Speaker_05
Yeah. But ultimately, I always wonder, you know, like the universe sort of has these patterns that force innovation and constantly move towards further and further complexity.

02:12:33 Speaker_05
And if you were going to have intelligent life that existed on a planet, what better incentive to get this intelligent life to spread to other parts of the planet than to make that planet volatile, make super volcanoes, earthquakes,

02:12:48 Speaker_05
solar flares, all sorts of different possibilities, asteroid impacts, all sorts of different possibilities that motivate this thing to spread.

02:12:57 Speaker_02
But to say like, this is fragile, and it's not forever, so create some redundancy. I mean, I was raised Buddhist.

02:13:06 Speaker_02
I'm not that religious in that way, but I'm kind of weirdly spiritual in this other way, which is, I do think the universe is basically, it's littered with answers. you just gotta go and find out what the right questions are.

02:13:23 Speaker_02
So to your point, like, are all these natural phenomena on Earth, you know, the question is, okay, if that's the answer, well, the question is like, do we want to be a single-planet species, or do we wanna have some built-in redundancy?

02:13:39 Speaker_02
And, you know, maybe 100 years from now, that builds on top of what happens in the next five, we'll have discovered all kinds of different planets. That's an amazing thing.

02:13:50 Speaker_05
Unquestionably.

02:13:51 Speaker_02
Unquestionably.

02:13:52 Speaker_05
And we also know that there's planets in our immediate vicinity that used to be able to harbor life like Mars. We know that Mars was covered in water and Mars had a sustainable atmosphere.

02:14:03 Speaker_05
And so we know that this is not just a dream, that this is possible, that what we're experiencing here on Earth is temporary. And if we get hit by something big, well, we know Earth was hit by a planet in its formation. There was Earth 1 and Earth 2.

02:14:18 Speaker_05
The formation of the moon, the primary theory is that we were hit by another planet, and that's why we have such a large moon. That's a quarter of the size. Is that right?

02:14:25 Speaker_06
I didn't know that.

02:14:26 Speaker_05
A quarter of the size of Earth. It's like keeping our atmosphere stable and keeping our... a wild shooting gallery out there. I mean, it really is. And especially our particular solar system has a massive asteroid belt.

02:14:41 Speaker_05
There's like 900,000 near-Earth objects.

02:14:44 Speaker_02
But isn't that so, like, inspiring, like this idea of, like,

02:14:48 Speaker_05
Discovering all these other questions that we don't know yet to even ask right that is a life well-lived Yes, you know, that's the the most promising aspect to a hyper intelligent AI in my in my opinion

02:15:05 Speaker_05
That it'll be able to solve problems that are inescapable to us and also offer us like real hard data about how big of a problem this is and when this needs to be solved by and then come up with actionable solutions.

02:15:20 Speaker_05
Yeah, and that that seems to be something that Might escape us as biological entities with limited minds Especially we're not working together and you could get AI to have the accumulated power mind power of everyone

02:15:35 Speaker_02
You know 10x the the mental model is if an alien showed up today Would humans by and large drop all of their? internal issues and cooperate together Perhaps. Perhaps. I would hope that the answer would be yes.

02:15:56 Speaker_05
It would have to be something that showed such overwhelming superiority that it shut down all of our military systems and did so openly to the point where we're like, we're really helpless against this thing.

02:16:08 Speaker_02
Well, so I think that one way to think about AI is that it is a supernatural system in some ways. So if we can just find a way to cooperate and harness this and see the bigger picture, I think we'll all be better off. Again, killing each other.

02:16:32 Speaker_02
It's just so barbarically unnecessary. It doesn't solve anything. All it does is just makes more anger. It creates more hatred because what's left over is not positive.

02:16:48 Speaker_02
And I think that we need to be reminded of that somehow without actually living the experience.

02:16:55 Speaker_05
Yes.

02:16:56 Speaker_05
My hope is that one of the things that comes out of AI and the advancement of society through this is the allocation of resources much more evenly and that we use AI, as I was saying before, the best way to keep people from entering into this country is to make all the other places as good as this country.

02:17:16 Speaker_05
As good as this country. Then you solve all the problems for everybody and you don't have this one place where you can go to get a job or you go over there and you get murdered.

02:17:26 Speaker_02
Well, so I think that, you know, why are a lot of people coming to America? A lot of the reasons, some are clearly political persecution, but a lot of the other reasons are economic to your point.

02:17:38 Speaker_02
And so if you can create economic abundance generally in the world, That's, I think, what people want. Most people want, as you said before, a good job.

02:17:50 Speaker_02
They want to come in and feel like they can point to something and say, I made that, and I feel proud of that.

02:17:55 Speaker_02
They want to hopefully get married, have some kids, have fun with them, teach them what they were all about, and then our swan song, and we all kind of, I don't know, get reborn or not.

02:18:07 Speaker_05
Isn't it interesting that the idea of people not getting together in groups and killing people they don't know, that's utopia? That is some sort of ridiculous pie-in-the-sky vision of the possibility of the future of humanity.

02:18:26 Speaker_05
common in small groups Like even in cities, I mean there's individual murders and there's crimes in cities But cities aren't attacking other cities and killing everybody, right?

02:18:38 Speaker_05
So there's something bizarre about nations and there's something bizarre about the the uneven application of resources and possibilities and, you know, your economic hopes, your dreams, your aspirations being achievable pretty much everywhere.

02:19:00 Speaker_05
If we did that, I think that might be the way that we solve most violence or the most horrific nonsensical violence.

02:19:08 Speaker_02
So, and you have this data point. I said this before, but the most important thing that has happened is that in the last four or five years, we have severely curtailed the likelihood of war in the nominal sense.

02:19:24 Speaker_02
I think Trump was able to basically draw a hard red line in the sand on that stuff. And the underlying reason was because we had enough economic abundance where the incentives to go to war fell.

02:19:38 Speaker_02
We had just a complete rebirth of domestic hydrocarbons in America. Whether you agree with it or not, my point is it is quite clearly correlated in the data.

02:19:49 Speaker_02
As we were able to produce more stuff, so economic abundance, we had less need to go and fight with external parties. So I do think you're right, like this reduces it down to we need to find ways

02:20:03 Speaker_02
of allocating this abundance more broadly to more countries. Meanwhile, that one crazy thing that you can't unwind and go back from, you can just never go there. And you just have to make sure nobody believes that that is justified.

02:20:22 Speaker_02
Because in a nuclear event, I think that that's not what happens.

02:20:26 Speaker_05
clearly. I saw this brilliant discussion that you had where you were explaining that Trump is the wrong messenger, but many of the things that he did actually were very positive. And I think that is a It's a very difficult thing to describe.

02:20:47 Speaker_05
It's a very difficult thing to express to people because we're so polarized, and particularly with a character like Trump that's so polarizing, it's very difficult to attribute anything to him that is positive.

02:21:03 Speaker_05
especially if you're a progressive, or if you're on the left, or if you've been a lifelong Democrat, or if you're involved in tech.

02:21:10 Speaker_06
Totally.

02:21:11 Speaker_05
I mean, it's this bizarre denial of basic reality, the reality of what can you see based on what was put in place, what actions were taken, what were the net benefits?

02:21:29 Speaker_02
I've always been a liberal. And I think I should define what liberalism used to mean. It used to mean absolutely no war, and it used to mean free speech, and it used to mean a government that was supportive of private industry.

02:21:48 Speaker_02
Try your best, go out there, we'll look out for you. Come back to us if things go haywire. That's an incredible view of the world.

02:21:59 Speaker_02
I think what happened was when I was given a choice, I would vote Democrat or I would support Democrats because I thought that that's what they stood for. And I didn't really understand Trump.

02:22:13 Speaker_02
And so what happened was I got too caught up in the messenger and I didn't focus enough on the message. And I didn't even realize that, I didn't realize it in 2016, but I don't think many people did. And then in 2020, I got lost in it.

02:22:34 Speaker_02
But probably by 21 or 22, I started to see all this data, and I said, hold on, I am not being a responsible adult the way that I define responsibility. I am not looking at this data from first principles, and I need to do it. And when I did,

02:22:54 Speaker_02
What I saw was a bunch of decisions that turned out to be pretty smart. The problem is that because he's the vessel, he turns off so many people with his delivery.

02:23:09 Speaker_02
And I think this is a moment where the stakes are so high, you have to try to figure out what the message is versus what the messenger is saying.

02:23:18 Speaker_02
Or look to somebody else that can tell you the message in a way that maybe will allow you to actually listen to it. That could be J.D. Vance, it could be Elon Musk, it could be RFK.

02:23:30 Speaker_02
There's all kinds, Tulsi Gabbard, there's all kinds of surrogates now, because I think that they have realized that there's a lot of value in these messages

02:23:40 Speaker_02
We need to have multiple messengers so that folks don't get tilted and go upside down, so that the minute that one person walks in the room. And I had to challenge myself to go through that process.

02:23:52 Speaker_02
And at the end of it, I'm like, wow, he's the only mainline candidate here that will not go to war. And just on that point, It's like very unique times creates strange bedfellows.

02:24:06 Speaker_02
It's sort of like one thing that kind of like always like pops out at me. Like, why are they working together? Why are they cooperating? I always think like, what's going on here?

02:24:15 Speaker_02
And when I saw him and Bobby aligned, you know, Bobby is a very balanced view of Donald Trump. Here's the good, here's the bad. Even now, even with everything that's on the line for Bobby and Bobby's agenda,

02:24:29 Speaker_02
He's quite honest about Donald Trump's positives and negatives. But they both get along.

02:24:40 Speaker_02
And one of the things, and probably the most important thing, where they were sounding the drum from day one is, under no circumstance will the United States go to war. I just think we should observe that. People should have an opinion on that.

02:24:56 Speaker_05
He's so polarizing that there's been two attempted assassinations on him and no one cares.

02:25:02 Speaker_02
He's like Neo in The Matrix. He's like dodging these bullets.

02:25:06 Speaker_05
For now. You know? Yeah. But listen, no one can dodge forever. But the thing is, it's like no one seems to care that the rhetoric is ramped up so hard and has been so distorted.

02:25:18 Speaker_02
The other thing that people need to, I think, think about is The domestic policy agenda of both the Democrats and the Republicans are within error bars.

02:25:28 Speaker_02
And what I mean by that is when push comes to shove, they both, whether it's Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, they have to work through a very sclerotic Congress, which means that very little will ultimately get done if you just look at the track record of all these past presidents.

02:25:48 Speaker_02
You typically get one piece of landmark legislation passed in your first two years, and then it all just gets unwound. It's happened from Clinton onwards. You know, Bush had one bite at the apple. Obama had one bite at the apple.

02:26:03 Speaker_02
Trump had one bite at the apple. Biden had one bite at the apple. So, the American political system has a really incredible way of, like, insulating itself.

02:26:16 Speaker_02
So if people would just take a step back and look at that, a lot of the policy agendas that both of them espouse are going to be very hard to get done. There'll be one thing. Maybe they both do something on domestic taxation.

02:26:34 Speaker_02
Maybe they both do something on the border. But the likelihood, based on the past, is that they'll get one of these things done, and then not much will be done.

02:26:44 Speaker_02
This is why I think folks then need to think about, okay, what are the super presidential powers then where they can act alone?

02:26:55 Speaker_02
One area where they can act alone is they can issue executive orders, and that can direct the behavior of governmental agencies. Okay, so people should decide what they think about that. Do you want a muscular American bureaucracy?

02:27:13 Speaker_02
Do you want a more slimmed-down one? Do you want one that has, you know, bigger ambitions, more teeth? Do you want one that is zero-based budgeted? They're pretty stark on those things. And then foreign policy.

02:27:30 Speaker_02
I think one camp is much more in the view that we are the world's policemen, and there's a responsibility that comes with that. And one says, we got a lot of problems at home. We're not getting pulled into something abroad.

02:27:47 Speaker_02
And I think people need to decide about that. But other than those two threshold issues, my honest opinion is that we're in error bars between the two of them. One will cut taxes by this much. One will increase taxes by that much.

02:28:04 Speaker_05
But there is real decisions that have been made during the Biden administration about the border that are affecting people.

02:28:11 Speaker_01
Or lack thereof.

02:28:13 Speaker_05
I think it's a decision. I don't think it's a lack thereof, especially the flying people in and the utilization of an app. to fly people in. That seems insane. Like the whole thing seems insane. And I don't know what the motivation is.

02:28:28 Speaker_05
I've talked to people that know a lot about the construction business, and they believe the motivation is cheap labor. I think that's part of it.

02:28:34 Speaker_05
And that a lot of the problem is, in many industries, the lack of cheap labor and people that are willing to do jobs.

02:28:40 Speaker_05
It's one of the things that I've heard, you know, there's a lot of criticism about all the Haitians that have moved to Springfield, Ohio.

02:28:45 Speaker_05
But one of the positive things that I've heard from people that live there is that these people are hard workers and they're willing to do jobs that the other people weren't willing to take on.

02:28:55 Speaker_05
So you have pros and cons, but you have this incentivized effort to move people into this country illegally, which will undoubtedly bring in people that you don't want here. Gang members, cartel members, terrorists. Terrorists. That's real.

02:29:11 Speaker_05
And we've documented that. And there's people that have been arrested that were trying to come in that were terrorists. And there's people that have gotten through for sure.

02:29:17 Speaker_02
I think that if I give both of them the benefit of the doubt, I think both of them will have to act on the border. I think that Donald Trump has had a clearer view of this issue for much far longer.

02:29:28 Speaker_02
I think that Kamala has had to shift her position to make herself more palatable to centrists. But I do think that both of them will probably have to act, because I don't think what's happening today is sustainable.

02:29:44 Speaker_05
I don't think it is either, but the fear, and Elon's talked about this, the real fear is that they're bringing these people in, give them a clear path to citizenship, which will allow them to vote, and then you've essentially bought their vote.

02:29:57 Speaker_05
So if the Democrats bring them in, incentivize them to become Democrats and vote, and give them money, which they clearly are doing, they're giving them EBD cards, and they're giving them housing, and they're giving things that they're not giving to veterans and poor people in this country, that seems to be an incentive

02:30:14 Speaker_05
to get these people to want to be here and also to appreciate the people that gave them that opportunity, which is you would essentially in swing states, which is Ohio, what's one of them, if you can get a lot of people in there and you've given them a better life because of your policies, those people, if you give them the opportunity to vote, they're going to, especially if they're like limited, low in information voters, they're going to vote for the party that got them to America.

02:30:41 Speaker_02
I mean, yeah, I don't know whether it's a conspiracy per se, but I do agree with the outcome, meaning I remember very vividly

02:30:58 Speaker_02
We, my parents took the whole family, three of us, myself and my two sisters, to Niagara Falls and then we crossed the border to Buffalo and we applied for refugee status in America as well. We didn't get it, we were rejected.

02:31:17 Speaker_02
And when we went back, we got a tribunal hearing in Ottawa, where I grew up.

02:31:25 Speaker_02
And I remember that it was in front of this magistrate judge, so the person comes in with the robes and the hair and everything, and you sit there, and they hear- They have the wigs up there? All of it, yeah. The wigs.

02:31:37 Speaker_02
And then they sit there, and they hear your case out, and my father had to defend our whole family. Here's what our life was like, here's what we did. And I remember just crying from the minute it started. That's all I did the whole time.

02:31:56 Speaker_02
It seared in my mind because your life is right there. It's like a crucible moment for your whole family. If they're like, I don't buy it, off you go. We go back and I don't know what would have happened. Fortunately, obviously, it worked out.

02:32:14 Speaker_02
And then you go through the process, I became a Canadian citizen. Then I moved to the United States, get on a visa, then I become an American citizen. I have an enormous loyalty to this country.

02:32:25 Speaker_02
And so when I think about Americans not getting what they deserve before other folks, it really does touch me in a place. I get very agitated about that idea.

02:32:36 Speaker_02
It's not that those folks shouldn't be taken care of in some way, shape, or form, because I was one of those people that needed a little bit of a safety net, right? We needed welfare.

02:32:46 Speaker_02
We needed the places to go and to get the free clothes and all that stuff. But you have to sort of take care of all of the people that are putting in the effort and the time to be here and followed the rules and stood in line.

02:33:04 Speaker_02
Like when I came to the United States, man, I came on a TN visa. Every year, you had to get it renewed. You had to show up. And if the person that was looking at you said, Chamath, out, you're gone, Joe. Then I had to transfer to an H-1B visa.

02:33:22 Speaker_02
My company had to show that there wasn't an American that could do this job. And then we were able to show that. So I've lived this experience of an immigrant following the rules.

02:33:37 Speaker_02
and just methodically and patiently waiting and hoping, and the anxiety that comes with that. Because it comes with tremendous anxiety. If you ask people that were on H-1Bs in America, there was a website.

02:33:48 Speaker_02
I don't even know if it exists anymore, but we would check what, you know, because when you apply for a green card, you get an application date. And man, I would sweat that website every other week. Hey, did they update that?

02:34:04 Speaker_02
And it would be like four years in the past. And I'm like, I'm never gonna get my green card. My visa's gonna expire. I'm gonna have to move back to Canada. But I still played by the rules.

02:34:16 Speaker_02
So I just think it's important to recognize that there are a lot of folks that play by the rules that are immigrants to this country. There are a lot of people that were born here that have been playing by the rules.

02:34:25 Speaker_02
And I think we owe it to them to do the right thing for them as well. And then try to do the right thing for some folks that are coming across the border, because there probably are some of them legitimately are escaping some really bad stuff.

02:34:39 Speaker_05
Quite a lot of them.

02:34:39 Speaker_02
Quite a lot of them.

02:34:40 Speaker_05
And I'm sure most of those people are people that just want a better opportunity. And that's a great thing.

02:34:45 Speaker_02
And that's a great thing.

02:34:46 Speaker_05
But you have to take care of all the people here, especially the veterans, and especially these people that have been struggling in these inner cities that have dealt with the redlining and all the Jim Crow laws that have set them back for decades and decades and have never been corrected.

02:35:03 Speaker_05
There's never been any effort to take these places that have been economically fucked since the beginning of the 20th century and correct it.

02:35:12 Speaker_05
Instead you're dumping all this money into people that have illegally come here that to me is where it starts looking like a conspiracy

02:35:19 Speaker_02
I think that as long as people can explain what they're doing for these other folks that you just mentioned, I think for a lot of people, for 50% of the population that leans red on this topic, you could at least explain to them.

02:35:36 Speaker_02
The problem is that there is no explanation. There is $150,000 home credit that Gavin Newsom was about to give. I think he vetoed it.

02:35:46 Speaker_05
I could be wrong.

02:35:48 Speaker_02
Was wildly unpopular but that bill somehow gets to his desk and Is there a bill that says we should have better food for the food deserts did that bill get passed So there's clearly a way for you know state legislatures to do what's right on behalf of the folks in their state So if we just had a little bit more balance and then if we were able to shine a light on those things and

02:36:16 Speaker_02
A lot of the people that live here that contribute would feel better about where things were going and wouldn't feel like the whole thing is just rigged.

02:36:26 Speaker_05
Right.

02:36:27 Speaker_05
Well, that's one of the things that people are so excited about with this Trump union with Tulsi Gabbard and Robert Kennedy is that you're having these movements that seem to be almost impossible to achieve outside of an outsider, like the Make America Healthy Again concept.

02:36:45 Speaker_05
Like, what are you talking about?

02:36:47 Speaker_05
You're going to go up against these companies that have been donating to these political parties forever and have allowed them to have these regulations that are allowing them to have these dyes in food that's illegal in our neighboring Canada?

02:36:59 Speaker_05
Like, what? No one's done that before, right? So that's very exciting. But again, messenger message.

02:37:07 Speaker_02
Messenger message. Just take a step back, though. And if you were just the average Joe citizen, I think an important thing to just notice is why are all these totally different people acting as a team?

02:37:30 Speaker_02
I just think it's an interesting thought question for, I don't have an answer, and I'm not gonna plant an answer, but just ask yourself, why are all of these people cooperating? And I think,

02:37:44 Speaker_02
The 2024 election is a lot about the traditional approach to governance and a very radical reimagining of government. And I think that's what effectively will get decided.

02:38:00 Speaker_02
The traditional approach says, we're going to create robust policies, we're going to work sort of top-down, you know, this muscular foreign policy, muscular domestic policy, the government's going to play a large part of the economy, and we're going to try to right some wrongs.

02:38:18 Speaker_02
The radical reimagining says, We're going to go back to a more founding notion of this country. We're going to have a very light governmental infrastructure. We are going to cut back a bunch of the rules.

02:38:37 Speaker_02
And we're going to take a little bit of a step back on foreign policy so that we don't end up in a situation we can't pull back from. In that lens, it's very different.

02:38:49 Speaker_02
In the lens of actual policy, I honestly think that it's pretty much six of one, half a dozen to the other. But in that first lens, they're really markedly different choices. And, you know, we'll see.

02:39:01 Speaker_05
But the lens that you're describing, the thing that distorts everyone's vision is Donald Trump as a human being. That's the thing. And it's also the media's depiction of him, which is being grossly distorted.

02:39:13 Speaker_02
And I think that, you know, I've met him and spent time with him. I've also had lunch with Kamala. She's very kind, very nice person. Donald Trump, very funny, very kind, very polite, like he talks to you.

02:39:35 Speaker_02
And I just was like, wow, this is like totally, and exactly what you said, I was like, I was expecting something totally different.

02:39:46 Speaker_02
And I think, though, that the part at the core, part of what, where the media goes crazy, I think, I'm guessing, is that there's a part of him as well that's like an entertainer. I mean, he's better than, he's as good as any comedian.

02:40:01 Speaker_02
Yeah, he's on point. He's got sync like he's got rhythm. He knows how to land he so There's a thing that he's doing when he's on stage which for the audience I think is no different than going to a show or a revival or something.

02:40:15 Speaker_02
You're seeing a star, right? but then if you're looking at him as Donald Trump the person I Think the media really gets out of they get tilted. I

02:40:26 Speaker_05
Well, not only that, they've distorted who he is. Whatever flaws Donald Trump has are nothing in comparison to the media's depictions of him.

02:40:36 Speaker_02
Everybody's got flaws. His, I think, exist and are well described, but I do think that they... I think there's a couple of good examples. One example that bothered me was the Charlottesville press conference.

02:40:58 Speaker_02
When I first heard the media depiction of it, I was really upset because of what I thought he said. It turned out he didn't say it. In fact, not only did he not say it, he said the exact opposite.

02:41:11 Speaker_02
And then I was really frustrated and a little bit angry because I thought, he was never lying to me. The filter was lying to me. And I'm not paying for those people to lie to me.

02:41:25 Speaker_02
I'm paying for them to actually give me the transcript of it so that I can decide for myself. I think that's part of a responsibility of being a cogent adult.

02:41:34 Speaker_05
And the only repercussions of them lying is a lack of trust that people have for them now.

02:41:40 Speaker_02
And so then they make their own bed. They dig their own grave a little bit because it's the, I think the trust in the mainstream media is the lowest it's ever been. I think way more people trust you.

02:41:51 Speaker_02
Way more people trust us to tell a version of what we think is happening because you're not gonna lie. And you're interested in just showing the clips and then just debating. What did he mean? What did he say? Why did he say this? Why did he say that?

02:42:08 Speaker_02
By the way, the same goes for Kamala because now, you know, the domestic political machinery is going to try to characterize her as well. Cherry pick comments, she says. So my point is, I think we have to suspend this.

02:42:22 Speaker_05
Like, particularly look at a debate where they fact-checked Trump multiple times, but they didn't fact-check her.

02:42:29 Speaker_02
By the way, I read this. Is this true or not? But the co-host was her sorority sister? Yes. That is true? Yes.

02:42:40 Speaker_05
Well, not just that, but there's the affidavit by the person from ABC that said she was aware of the questions and that she was told that there were certain things that were going to be off-topic or off-limits, like her record as a DA and also some other person that she's attached to that's involved in something shady.

02:43:00 Speaker_05
And then on top of it there was things that she said that were absolutely untrue one of them the most One of the grossest ones was she's saying that we don't have any troops deployed in combat zones Have you ever seen that one where the troops in the combat zone are going?

02:43:15 Speaker_05
What the fuck are we doing here? And then dan crenshaw see if you can find dan crenshaw's post on instagram he

02:43:22 Speaker_02
He's a Navy SEAL with one eye.

02:43:23 Speaker_05
Yeah, yeah. I mean, that's a guy who understands the consequences of war, right? Clearly, paid the price personally for serving. But on his Instagram, he laid out how many troops are in active combat zones.

02:43:37 Speaker_05
It's tens of thousands in multiple combat zones of American citizens.

02:43:42 Speaker_02
I mean, look, I was trying to be charitable when I said that. Like, I think that there's, like, I'm going to assume that both people, are smart, they believe what they believe, they're both trying to do what they think is right, they both want to win.

02:43:59 Speaker_02
Okay, let's take that off the table for a second. The filters that then try to give them that message will try to pervert that truth for their own best interests.

02:44:09 Speaker_02
And I think what they have decided, the mainstream media, is their best interests are better served through one, i.e. Kamala, and less well served through another, i.e. Donald Trump.

02:44:19 Speaker_02
So if there's ever been a moment where it's time for all of us to show up and be a grown-up, try to get the source material, try to think about things from first principles, I'm telling you it is the most consequential election of our lifetime.

02:44:38 Speaker_02
And the simplest reason why is that the president decides to hit the button on the nuclear football. So just imagine for one second, irrespective of what your politics is, who do you want to hold that thing? What do you want them to do?

02:45:02 Speaker_02
Under even the most excruciating pressure in the world. And I think what we want to find is someone, at least in that very narrow moment, will be a JFK-like decision. I will block everybody else out.

02:45:21 Speaker_02
It is entirely about my desire and wish for how I want America to be known, and I'm going to protect my children and my grandchildren. You cannot touch the button. You can't get close to the button. I think we're a lot closer than people think.

02:45:38 Speaker_05
I think we are too. Thank you very much for meeting here, man. That was really fun. I really enjoyed it. Thanks. I know you're very busy, so I really appreciate your time. It was a real honor. It was an honor for me as well. Thank you. Thank you. All right.

02:45:50 Speaker_05
Bye, everybody.